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AL East Notes: Yankees, Alvarez, Red Sox, Rays, Orioles

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Yankees GM Brian Cashman is downplaying the team’s interest in free agents, writes George A. King III of the New York Post. The Yankees are shopping veterans Ivan Nova, Brett Gardner, and Andrew Miller, but talks have subsided for the moment. According to Cashman, “I think it’s more likely that we keep them than move them. I say that recognizing that if someone wants to ring a bell that I’ve put out there, that could happen.”

Here’s more from the AL East:

  • The Yankees don’t have a spot for recently non-tendered slugger Pedro Alvarez, writes King. Before considering the roster, Alvarez sounds like a decent fit. As a youth, Alvarez attended school in the Bronx and played for the Bayside Bombers – an elite travel team based in the area. Yankee Stadium is also extremely friendly to left-handed power. However, the Yankees are swamped with designated hitters. Alex Rodriguez, Mark Teixeira, Carlos Beltran, and prospect Greg Bird all overlap to some degree.
  • New York could try to upgrade in the middle infield next week, writes Mark Feinsand of the New York Daily News. Rob Refsnyder and Dustin Ackley are expected to platoon at second base, but Cashman will continue to monitor the market for more reliable alternatives. Feinsand offers Howie Kendrick, Brandon Phillips, and Martin Prado as three players to watch. Kendrick is a free agent while Phillips and Prado would have to be acquired via trade.
  • Owner John Henry says the Red Sox could add another starter, writes John Tomase of WEEI.com. Boston inked David Price to a record breaking contract earlier in the week. Per Henry, “I do think there is trade potential. We have a lot of pitching and we have a lot of talent. We’re not going to trade away our core young players, but we might be able to get a core young pitcher.” Henry did mention that the asking price for high quality pitchers is probably out of their range.
  • The Rays also aren’t a fit for designated hitters Alvarez or Chris Carter, per Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times. Tampa would have to make a trade to open playing time for them. The club is likely looking to trade pitching for young hitters like Jorge Soler or Javier Baez.
  • The large contracts signed by Price and Zack Greinke could take the Orioles out of the market for Chris Davis, opines Peter Schmuck of the Baltimore Sun. Schmuck figures the floor for Davis is probably around $150MM – more than double the biggest free agent deal ever inked by the Orioles. The market for hitters has been much slower to establish itself, so there is still a change we’ll be surprised. For now, I agree Davis may wind up outside of Baltimore’s price range.
  • The Orioles aren’t usually flashy participants at the Winter Meetings, but they do have a few needs to fill, write Eduardo A. Encina and Dan Connolly of the Baltimore Sun. Davis, the rotation, and the outfield are obvious concerns. The bullpen could be a challenge to buoy if Darren O’Day signs elsewhere. The Nationals and Orioles are considered front runners for his services. Baltimore likes to make Rule 5 picks under Dan Duquette. The club already has to roster Dylan Bundy who is out of options – possibly preventing them from keeping a pick.

Red Sox Notes: Price, Donaldson, Ramirez

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The Red Sox identified David Price as their top free agent target early on, and they began courting him in November as principal owner John Henry and a variety of top Sox execs all traveled to Nashville, Jason Mastrodonato of the Boston Herald writes. Price, in turn, peppered the Sox with questions about their commitment to winning, even asking about this year’s first-round draft pick Andrew Benintendi. GM Mike Hazen walked through the Sox’ entire 40-man roster. Ultimately, Price was swayed. “The youth that we have, the team we can put out there on Opening Day right now, I think that’s very special,” he said today. Negotiations continued after Thanksgiving, and the Red Sox’ willingness to give Price an opt-out helped lead to the signing. Here are more quick notes from out of Boston, where Price was introduced this afternoon.

  • The Sox’ future payroll projections helped convince them to make a bold move and sign Price, Alex Speier of the Boston Globe writes. The team has significant contracts coming off the books in all of the next four seasons, and with the team beginning to rely on a young core that includes Xander Bogaerts, Mookie Betts, Blake Swihart, Eduardo Rodriguez and others, allowing them to pay Price far into the future without worrying too much about his salary derailing them.
  • Price’s former teammate Josh Donaldson thinks Price will have a huge impact on the Sox, Scott Lauber of the Herald writes.  “He’s the kind of pitcher that affects the team for three or four days because he’s going to save your bullpen. He’s going to go up there and eat up innings for you the entire time,” says Donaldson. “And in the clubhouse, he’s a great player but an even better person.”
  • Before signing Price, the Red Sox looked deeply into the trade market to try to find an ace, Tim Britton of the Providence Journal tweets. Ultimately, though, many trade talks ended quickly, as the Sox blanched at teams’ opening asking prices.
  • The Red Sox were able to add Price and Craig Kimbrel this offseason, but they aren’t going to be able to get rid of Hanley Ramirez, Lauber writes. Ramirez has $66MM left on his contract and doesn’t have a defensive position, and the recent non-tenders of Pedro Alvarez and Chris Carter — both of them younger and much less costly than Ramirez — show that there won’t be much of a market for an expensive and flawed hitter like Ramirez this winter. Ramirez, for his part, doesn’t think there’s anything fundamentally wrong, even after a season in which he didn’t hit especially well and was a disaster defensively. “The thing is, in April, nobody said anything. I had 10 homers,” he says. “I know how it is. It’s the media. When you’re struggling, things are going to come out. I just got to hit and that’s it, and everything’s going to be fine.”

Red Sox Designate Garin Cecchini

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The Red Sox have announced that they’ve designated corner infielder and outfielder Garin Cecchini for assignment. The move clears space on their roster for David Price.

Following a 2013 season in which he hit .322/.433/.471 between Class A+ Salem and Double-A Portland, Cecchini was regarded as a top prospect — prior to the 2014 season, Baseball America rated him the 74th best prospect in the game. Since then, though, the 24-year-old’s stock has slipped, as he struggled to establish himself at Triple-A Pawtucket. This season, he batted .213/.286/.296 there (while playing mostly left field, although he also appeared in 42 games at the infield corners) and went 0-for-4 in two games in the big leagues. He is, however, still young enough that other clubs could find him to be an attractive option as a waiver claim.

Red Sox Sign David Price

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The Red Sox have announced that they’ve signed ace lefty David Price to a seven-year, $217MM contract. The Bo McKinnis client will sign the largest contract for a pitcher in history when the deal becomes official, narrowly eclipsing Clayton Kershaw’s $215MM contract with the Dodgers. Price’s deal contains an opt-out after the third year. He will receive $30MM in each season from 2016-18, $31MM in 2019 and $32MM per year from 2020-22. As FOX Sports’ Ken Rosenthal tweets, Price’s $31MM average annual value ties Miguel Cabrera for the richest AAV in Major League history. Price will not receive a no-trade clause.

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Price, who turned 30 in August, is the consensus top free agent on this season’s market and gives the Red Sox the bona fide ace that many feel their rotation needs to function as a serviceable unit. He’s coming off a second-place finish in the American League Cy Young voting (Houston’s Dallas Keuchel took home first-place honors) after tossing 220 1/3 innings of 2.45 ERA ball with 9.2 K/9, 1.9 BB/9 and a 40.4 percent ground-ball rate between the Tigers and the Blue jays. That type of production has come to be expected of Price, who has averaged 217 innings and a 2.97 ERA per season dating back to the 2010 season.

The opt-out clause affords Price the chance to again test the open market heading into his age-33 season. It will be a challenge although not impossible, for Price to be able to secure more than the four years and $127MM that remain on his contract at the point at which he can opt out. For comparison, Price’s main competitor in free agency, Zack Greinke, opted out of the remaining three year on his $147MM contract to begin this offseason, but he did so entering his age-32 season (one year younger than Price will be after the 2018 campaign) and with $71MM remaining on his contract.

Price will immediately slot into the top spot in Boston’s rotation and be joined by some combination of Clay Buchholz, Eduardo Rodriguez, Wade Miley, Rick Porcello, Joe Kelly and Henry Owens to round out the remainder of the starting five. His addition gives Boston a surplus of useful starting pitchers from which it could deal to address other needs throughout the roster, possibly in the bullpen or possibly for further starting pitching upgrades.

The move represents the second major transaction pulled off by new president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowksi this offseason. The former Tigers GM is more than familiar with Price, having acquired him from the Rays in a trade that cost him Austin Jackson, Drew Smyly and Willy Adames in July of 2014 and having traded him to the Blue Jays in exchange for young left-handers Daniel Norris, Matt Boyd and Jairo Labourt this past July shortly before being dismissed in Detroit. In his first major order of business atop the Red Sox’ baseball operations hierarchy, Dombrowski spent extravagantly in a different manner, surrendering four prospects — Manuel Margot, Javier Guerra, Carlos Asuaje and Logan Allen — to acquire an elite closer from the Padres in the form of Craig Kimbrel.

Such transactions are the types we’ve come to expect from Dombrowski dating back to his Tigers days, but they represent a dramatic philosophical shift for the Red Sox, who previously shied away from long-term commitments of this nature and went to great lengths to build up their farm system under previous general manager Ben Cherington (who resigned after Dombrowski was hired). In order to make moves of this magnitude, Dombrowski likely had to sell ownership on a new direction for the club that aligned more closely with the strategies he employed while guiding the Tigers to a pair of American League pennants and three division titles from 2006-13. Of course, it remains to be seen whether the thus-far bold actions of Dombrowski, Red Sox GM Mike Hazen and the rest of the team’s decision-makers will lead to similar success in Boston.

The Price contract is a significant departure from the reported $144MM that the Tigers felt comfortable offering to Max Scherzer while under Dombrowski’s watch, although the Red Sox have a different long-term financial outlook — namely that they don’t have mega-contracts on the books for Justin Verlander and Miguel Cabrera, as Detroit did. The contract also shows how far ownership’s thinking has come since attempting to retain Jon Lester with a reported four-year, $70MM offer that was ultimately boosted into the $120MM range but never approached the $155MM that Lester received from the Cubs.

With Price and Jordan Zimmermann now off the market, Greinke and Johnny Cueto are the top remaining arms on the market. As the top-tier names begin to come off the board, the second tier of free agent starters — highlighted by names such as Jeff Samardzija, Mike Leake, Wei-Yin Chen, Scott Kazmir and Yovani Gallardo — should come into play. Jason Heyward now stands as the top-ranked free agent from MLBTR’s Top 50 list, wherein we pegged Price to land exactly $217MM over a seven-year span (albeit from the incorrect team and without the inclusion of an opt-out clause, which does strengthen the deal’s overall value for Price).

Peter Abraham of the Boston Globe initially reported that Price and the Red Sox were in agreement. Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports tweeted that Price would receive an opt-out after three years. Bob Nightengale of USA Today, Jerry Crasnick of ESPN and Jon Heyman of CBS Sports first reported details of the contract’s structure.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Details, Reactions And Effects: The David Price Deal

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Here’s a roundup of reactions to and news about David Price’s seven-year, $217MM pact with the Red Sox.

  • The signing came together partly as a result of maneuvering regarding Price’s fellow free agent starting pitcher Zack Greinke, Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports writes (Twitter links). The Dodgers and Giants wanted Greinke to make a decision, while Greinke wanted to know where the Red Sox stood. The Sox, who had increased their offer to Price yesterday, wanted him to come to a decision so they knew whether to turn their attention to Greinke or possibly others.
  • The Cardinals made the second-best offer to Price, Bob Nightengale of USA Today writes. Their seven-year offer was, however, worth $30MM less than that of the Red Sox. The Cubs also met with Price, but did not extend an actual offer.
  • The Red Sox’ willingness to offer a deal with no deferred money helped persuade Price to sign quickly, ESPN’s Jerry Crasnick tweets. (Of course, it must have also helped that the Red Sox’ offer was so much more lucrative than anyone else’s.) Price’s contract contrasts with the seven-year, $210MM deal Max Scherzer got last offseason, for example — although the dollar figures appear similar, Scherzer’s deal contains plenty of deferred compensation that reduces the deal’s present-day value. (Price’s deal also includes an opt-out after three years, while Scherzer’s does not.)
  • Red Sox president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski says the team is likely done making significant moves, reports John Tomase of WEEI.com. “We’€™ll be open-minded going into the Winter Meetings,” Dombrowski says. “We’ll see what happens over the next few days leading into that, but be in a position that I think our major moves are done.  But when you go to the Winter Meetings, you can never tell what happens.” In addition to reaching an agreement with Price this offseason, the Red Sox have, of course, traded for closer Craig Kimbrel and signed outfielder Chris Young.
  • Like Nightengale, Rosenthal also writes that Boston “blew away the field” with their offer. Rosenthal also notes that Price’s successes after being traded from the Rays to the Tigers and then the Blue Jays might have helped convince former Tigers exec Dombrowski that Price could succeed in a tough market.
  • Price’s 2016 salary will add to a Sox payroll that appears likely to result in a large luxury tax penalty, Alex Speier of the Boston Globe writes. They could end up with a $215MM payroll for luxury tax purposes, which would result in a bill of about $9MM — 30% of the amount they spend over the $189MM threshold.
  • The $31MM average annual value of Price’s contract isn’t a bad one for a large-payroll team like the Red Sox, and Price fits the Sox’ needs perfectly, writes ESPN’s Keith Law (Insider-only). Price immediately becomes by far the Red Sox’ best starter, and his combination of relative youth and good offspeed stuff suggests that he should age relatively gracefully in the next several seasons. Price’s addition should also help the team move Joe Kelly to a relief role for which he’s well suited. And signing Price, rather than, say, Greinke helps the Red Sox keep the 12th overall pick in next year’s draft, since Price wasn’t eligible to receive a qualifying offer after being traded at midseason.
  • Price is a true ace, but the Red Sox are taking on lots of risk with his contract, Barry Svrluga of the Washington Post writes. Lengthy deals for pitchers frequently turn out to be troublesome, and if Price doesn’t take advantage of his opt-out, the last four years of his contract could become a headache. Also, Svrluga writes, Price (who has a 5.12 career ERA in 63 1/3 playoff innings) still must prove he can step up in the postseason.

Free Agent Notes: Fowler, Zobrist, Leake, Venable, Relievers

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The Mets have some level of interest in Dexter Fowler as a center field option, reports ESPN’s Buster Olney (via Twitter). However, Ben Zobrist remains the team’s top priority in free agency. Recent reports have indicated that the Mets won’t go to four years on Zobrist, and that will probably need to change in order to sign him, as Yahoo’s Jeff Passan said last night the price tag is currently believed to be around $60MM over four years. Should the Mets lose out on Zobrist, they could look to upgrade in center field, where Juan Lagares had a down season in 2015 — the first of a four-year contract extension. Lagares’ contract is affordable enough that he could be moved to a reserve role without it being an overpay.

A few more notes from around the free-agent market…

  • ESPN’s Jerry Crasnick delivers a slew of news pertaining to Zobrist (Twitter links 1, 2, 3, 4, 5). Per Crasnick, the Nationals, Giants and Dodgers are all in the mix for Zobrist as well. The Cubs and Cardinals like Zobrist but don’t have as many at-bats to offer as the other clubs. The Royals are probably priced out on Zobrist, and while the Angels inquired earlier this offseason, there’s been no recent discussion between the two sides. Additionally, Zobrist’s preference is to play for a contender, making the Braves a tough fit even though they do have some level of interest. Mike Berardino of the St. Paul Pioneer Press hears (Twitter link) that about 11 clubs are in the mix for Zobrist, to some extent, but the Twins aren’t among them (which is no surprise given their glut of outfielders and Brian Dozier’s presence at second base).
  • Crasnick hears the same that Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch has recently suggested — that having fallen short on David Price, the Cardinals could turn their attention to Mike Leake on the free agent market. Leake won’t cost near the same amount that the Cardinals were willing to go on Price, but he’d be a strong option to replace the injured Lance Lynn in their rotation in 2016 and would provide value for another four years or so beyond that point.
  • Also from Crasnick, both the Indians and Orioles have expressed interest in free-agent outfielder Will Venable. While the 32-year-old Venable is coming off a down season split between San Diego and Texas, he has historically been a productive bat for the Friars and has posted solid numbers away from the spacious Petco Park over the life of his career. Venable is also capable of playing all three outfield positions.
  • A pair of notes on relievers: Scott Lauber of the Boston Herald hears that the Red Sox are no longer in the market for right-hander Joakim Soria (Twitter link). Having spent an enormous amount in terms of dollars and prospects to acquire Price and Craig Kimbrel, it’s perhaps logical that the Sox wouldn’t spend so heavily. Additionally, Crasnick spoke to an agent who said that the Blue Jays are looking for an impact (Twitter link), power arm for their bullpen but are trying to land such a piece for “dollar store prices,” suggesting that the team isn’t keen on shelling out a significant multi-year deal.

Red Sox Designate Roman Mendez

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The Red Sox have designated righty Roman Mendez for assignment, the club announced. His roster spot was needed to clear space for outfielder Chris Young, whose signing was made official.

Mendez, 25, was claimed late last season from the Rangers. He has tallied 46 2/3 MLB innings over the last two years, working to a 3.09 ERA but posting a mediocre strikeout-to-walk rate of 6.2 K/9 against 4.8 BB/9. Mendez spent most of 2015 at Triple-A Round Rock, working to a 3.45 ERA with 9.1 K/9 against 3.8 BB/9 over 57 1/3 frames.

Braves Listening On Shelby Miller; Interested In A.J. Pollock, Jorge Soler

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6:56pm: The Braves continue to ask the Diamondbacks for A.J. Pollock, reports Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports (links to Twitter). After the D-backs initially rejected Atlanta’s proposal of Miller for Pollock, the Braves came back with an offer of Miller and right-hander Arodys Vizcaino for Pollock and minor league right-hander Aaron Blair, which Arizona also rejected.

Clearly, while the Braves are in a state of rebuilding, there’s interest on their behalf in adding a piece that can help them in 2017, when much of the team’s young stable of pitching prospects will be emerging onto the Major League scene. Both Pollock and Soler (mentioned in the previous update) fit that bill, with Soler possessing even more club control than Pollock, who is a free agent after three seasons (the same as Miller).

6:40pm: Shelby Miller’s name is one of the most popular on the rumor circuit at present, with recent reports indicating that as many as 20 teams have checked in on the Atlanta right-hander. Jon Heyman reported yesterday that the Yankees, Marlins, Giants, Dodgers and Diamondbacks are all among the teams to have expressed interest, and further details on the Miller market are beginning to emerge.

Today, ESPN’s Jerry Crasnick reports that the Braves are highly interested in Cubs right fielder Jorge Soler, but right-hander Julio Teheran probably isn’t enough to pry Soler away from Chicago (links to Twitter). One person familiar with Atlanta’s thinking also told Crasnick that the Red Sox could be a match, though that tweet preceded tonight’s record-setting agreement with David Price.

Meanwhile, Joel Sherman of the New York Post reports that the Cubs, Diamondbacks, Dodgers and Giants are the teams that appear to be the most interested in Miller, but the Braves might be waiting until Price’s deal becomes official and Zack Greinke makes a decision before ultimately determining whether or not they should move Miller. Greinke is said to be choosing between San Francisco and L.A., so it stands to reason that whichever club loses out on Greinke could show an increased willingness to part with talent to land Miller.

Heyman hears that one name that’s unlikely to be included in a Miller deal is Joc Pederson (Twitter link), The Dodgers have “made clear” that they’d prefer to deal from their deep well of prospects as opposed to part with Major League ready talent such as Pederson, whose name isn’t involved in trade discussions between the two sides at this time.

The 25-year-old Miller is set to hit arbitration for the first time this winter and is projected by MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz to earn $4.9MM next season. He’s controllable for three more years and is coming off a fine 2015 campaign in which he recorded a 3.02 ERA with 7.5 K/9, 3.2 BB/9 and a 47.7 ground-ball rate in 205 2/3 innings. The ERA, ground-ball rate and innings total each ranked as a career-high for the former first-round pick.

Red Sox, Chris Young Agree To Two-Year Deal

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TODAY: Boston will guarantee Young $13MM over the two years of the deal, Rosenthal tweets. That puts the contract right in line with recent paydays for strong free agent fourth outfielders. The pre-2014 David Murphy contract — two years and $12MM — represents the closest comp.

Young will earn $6.5MM in each year of the deal, Alex Speier of the Boston Globe adds on Twitter.

YESTERDAY, 5:43pm: Young will receive a two-year guarantee, Jon Heyman of CBSSports.com tweets.

12:29pm: The Red Sox and outfielder Chris Young are in agreement on a multi-year contract, pending a physical, reports Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports (Twitter link). Young is represented by CAA Sports.

Chris B. Young

The 32-year-old Young has significantly rebuilt his stock after a dismal showing with the 2014 Mets in which he failed to live up to the club’s one-year, $7.25MM free-agent investment. Young latched on with the Yankees late that offseason and posted an impressive .282/.354/.521 batting line in 79 plate appearances. That showing led to a one-year, $2.5MM contract to return to the Bronx, and Young exceeded expectations on that deal by a fair margin.

In 2015, Young batted a healthy .252/.320/.453 in 356 trips to the plate spread across 140 contests for the Yankees. Young possesses decent pop against right-handed pitching but nearly all of his production comes against lefties at this point. Last season, he logged 175 plate appearances when holding the platoon advantage and batted an incredible .327/.397/.575 with seven home runs. As such, he figures to be held to primarily a platoon role in Boston, though he clearly can deliver a good amount of value at the plate in said capacity.

While Young was at one time to be considered a sound defender in center field, he’s more or less limited to the corners now. He can handle center in a pinch — the Yankees gave him 90 innings there in 2015 –but the Red Sox have multiple options on the roster that project as better defenders in center. In fact, all three of the Sox’ projected starters — Mookie Betts, Rusney Castillo and Jackie Bradley — are capable of handling center (with Bradley likely to see much of the center-field action next season). Bradley is the only left-handed hitter of the bunch, so Young could slot into the lineup in his place against southpaws, with Betts sliding over to center field on those days.

Young is essentially a dead-pull hitter, which should mesh just fine with the Green Monster at Fenway Park. His signing gives the Red Sox a fourth outfield option and also lessens the potential blow if the Sox are to indeed trade one of Bradley or Castillo, as some have speculated. (The notion of a Betts trade teeters on the brink of unfathomable at this point.) In the event of a trade, the Sox could then pursue free-agent (or trade) upgrades in the outfield or simply platoon Young with the left-handed-hiting Brock Holt, who has more than his fair share of outfield experience.

Boston’s 40-man roster is full at this juncture, so the Sox will have to make a move in order to accommodate Young if and when he passes his physical exam to make the deal official.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Latest On Johnny Cueto’s Asking Price

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10:46pm: Arizona’s interest in Cueto was and perhaps still is rather intense, according to reports. The organization sent a delegation including GM Dave Stewart, chief baseball officer Tony La Russa, and president Derrick Hall to the Dominican Republic to meet with the righty, ESPN.com’s Jerry Crasnick reports on Twitter. And the D’backs still have interest after the initial offer was rebuffed, per Bob Nightengale of USA Today (via Twitter), who adds that the club “realize[s]” that Cueto can command more than a $20MM AAV over six years after Jordan Zimmermann got $22MM annually for five.

Of course, the Diamondbacks aren’t alone in pursuing the veteran. Among the other teams to reach out to his representatives are the Dodgers, Giants, Red Sox, and Cubs, per Jon Heyman of CBSSports.com. That group of large-market contenders has always figured to factor at the top of the free agent pitching pool.

11:52am: Johnny Cueto reportedly rejected a six-year, $120MM contract offer from the D-Backs recently, and ESPN’s Jerry Crasnick now reports that teams in the market for Cueto believe he’s seeking $140-160MM in total — a contract that would vault him into Jon Lester territory (Twitter link). According to Crasnick, the Diamondbacks initially planned to offer Cueto about $110MM but upped their offer to $120MM late in talks (Twitter link). The increase, however, wasn’t enough to get the job done.

It would seem, then, that Cueto’s camp is seeking a contract that doesn’t offer any sort of reduced rate due to the minor elbow issues that plagued Cueto this summer or due to his late-season struggles. Cueto was masterful in his first four outings with the Royals, pitching to a 1.80 ERA in 30 innings, including a complete-game shutout of the Tigers. However, he limped to a 6.49 ERA over his final nine starts (51 1/3 innings). There were a few quality starts mixed in toward the end, but many speculated as to whether Cueto was fully healthy. Cueto and Salvador Perez reportedly worked to adjust where Perez would set the target for Cueto’s pitches, but he still had mixed results from that point forth.

Cueto’s postseason was a true mixed bag — one so-so start, one meltdown and a pair of dominant gems in pivotal games. His final outing — a one-run complete game over the Mets in Game 2 of the World Series — was a nice final impression to make as he headed into free agency. Nevertheless, Cueto’s overall body of work following his mild elbow flare-up and trade to the Royals saw him yield 58 earned runs in 106 1/3 innings (4.91 ERA) with a 75-to-27 K/BB ratio and 118 hits (13 homers) allowed.

None of that is to say that Cueto can’t or shouldn’t secure a hefty payday, of course. Despite those issues, the perception of Cueto has remained that he’s one of the three or four best starters on the market (depending on one’s feelings about Jordan Zimmremann), and we at MLBTR still projected him to clear $100MM with relative ease (though the $120MM he rejected already surpassed our most recent $115MM figure). Prior to those issues, a Lester-esque contract was a perfectly reasonable expectation for Cueto, and the possibility that he exceeded that figure was certainly present. Cueto, after all, logged a 2.48 ERA in 677 1/3 innings from 2011-14 despite pitching his home games in one of baseball’s most hitter-friendly parks, and he carried a similarly elite 2.62 ERA and a 120-to-29 K/BB ratio through 130 2/3 innings with the Reds this season.

Cueto is a clear front-line starter when healthy and at his best, and he’s entering the open market heading into his age-30 season, having not yet even celebrated his 30th birthday as of this writing. That he’s already received a $120MM offer suggests that the demand for his services is strong, which certainly plays into his camp’s favor as the Winter Meetings approach.

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