Free Agent Stock Watch: Jonathan Papelbon
In an upcoming class of free agents flush with solid closers, Red Sox stopper Jonathan Papelbon will arguably be the grand prize. Papelbon, 31 in November, is still in his prime and on track for his sixth consecutive campaign of at least 35 saves in as many seasons as Boston's closer. He didn't merely compile those saves by virtue of simply holding the job; the 2.33 career ERA and 2.68 FIP are befitting a stud closer.
This season, in particular, has been an important one for Papelbon on the heels of a tumultuous 2010. He's posted a 3.14 ERA and 26 saves to date, but if you dig deeper, the advanced estimators like him more than that, enough for a 2.37 xFIP and 1.62 SIERA. If the end-of-season numbers are closer to those figures, Paps will hit the open market on quite the high note.
Papelbon avoided arbitration last offseason for a $12MM salary in 2011, and I'd guess he won't want to take a cut in annual salary (I know, going out on a limb there). And considering three-year deals were handed out like so many Jolly Ranchers to setup men such as Joaquin Benoit and Scott Downs last winter, he'd be silly not to seek a pact of at least that length.
The tricky part is that his most obvious suitor, or perhaps the one that seems the likeliest, is his current team, the Red Sox, and they have plenty of bargaining leverage. Setup man Daniel Bard has emerged as one of the game's elite relievers the past couple years, and Ryan Madson, Heath Bell and Francisco Rodriguez threaten to dent the market for Papelbon, as do older guys like Francisco Cordero, Joe Nathan, Brad Lidge and Jose Valverde, whose respective teams hold club options for 2012.
Bargaining is a ways off yet, but a couple of experts have shared interesting and differing takes recently. One NL GM told Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe that he wouldn't break up the formidable late-innings duo of Bard and Papelbon, and that he thinks Boston will buck up when it comes down to it. Meanwhile, Peter Gammons said last month that if Papelbon is seeking something like three years and $36MM, the Sox will likely allow him to walk.
I think the terms mentioned by Gammons are probably the magic numbers for Papelbon. Consider, for example, that Mariano Rivera will have earned $15MM for five consecutive years from 2008-12 (on three- and two-year contracts), and $36MM for three doesn't seem so unreasonable. Of course, that's a dicey comparison because of Mo's greatness, his inextricable ties to the Yankees organization and so on. But there are parallels. Is Paps the Red Sox's Rivera? More pointedly, will the sides proceed in contract dealings the way the Yanks and Rivera have — knowing that they need each other? My bet is, "yes."
AL East Notes: Roberts, Lester, Nova
Curtis Granderson added to his MVP-caliber season with home run number 32 today and he now has a .276/.367/.584 line. He'll receive MVP consideration after the season, along with division rivals including Jose Bautista, Adrian Gonzalez, Dustin Pedroia, Jacoby Ellsbury and Ben Zobrist. Here's the latest on the AL East…
- Dan Connolly of the Baltimore Sun asks a hypothetical question of Orioles fans: would you trade Brian Roberts for Adam Dunn? The deal, by the way, has not been been discussed by either side as far as Connolly has heard.
- Kirk Minihane of WEEI.com says Tim Lincecum and Clayton Kershaw are two of the only pitchers he'd trade straight up for Red Sox starter Jon Lester, considering the left-hander's age (27) and contract status (under team control through 2014).
- The Yankees thought about returning Ivan Nova to the minors last week, but GM Brian Cashman ultimately decided that the right-hander gives the Yankees a better chance to win than any alternative, according to ESPN.com's Buster Olney.
Heyman On Reyes, Ortiz, Cole, Twins
The market for Jose Reyes should still be strong after the season, Jon Heyman writes at SI.com. MLB executives tell Heyman that the Giants, Cardinals, Tigers, Angels, Nationals, Braves, Phillies, Red Sox, Yankees and Mets could be fits for the shortstop in terms of finances and positional need. Here are the rest of Heyman’s rumors…
- Yankees people suggest they’re unlikely to pursue Reyes and Red Sox people say they don’t expect to spend big on a position player this winter.
- The Red Sox haven’t discussed a new deal with David Ortiz, though they’re confident that they’ll be able to re-sign him after the season. Ortiz has expressed interest in a multiyear deal for a while, but the Red Sox don’t want to guarantee more than one year.
- First overall draft pick Gerrit Cole is looking to approach Stephen Strasburg’s $15.1MM bonus and top Mariners pick Danny Hultzen is looking for $13MM plus money for school, Heyman reports. Keep track of which top picks have signed here.
- The Twins appear to want to keep Joe Nathan when he hits free agency after the season, but they’ll probably let Matt Capps sign elsewhere.
Minor Moves: Clevelan Santeliz, Miguel Perez
Here are today's minor moves…
- The Red Sox have released Clevelan Santeliz according to the Triple-A International League transactions page. The 24-year-old right-hander posted a 4.60 ERA with 7.7 K/9 and 6.3 BB/9 in 43 relief innings for Boston's Triple-A affiliate in Pawtucket.
- The Pirates returned minor league catcher Miguel Perez from the Nationals, according to Adam Kilgore of the Washington Post (on Twitter). The Pirates had acquired Perez from Washington at the end of June. The 27-year-old has appeared in just ten games this year, but has a .269/.322/.343 line in ten seasons as a minor leaguer.
Draft Links: Dodgers, Springer, Boras, Fisher
We're a week away from the August 15 deadline for MLB teams to sign their 2011 draft picks. Here's the latest on a few signings, a few players still in negotiations and a few players who are going to college…
- The Dodgers have agreed to terms with sixth-rounder Scott Barlow and 10th-rounder Tyler Ogle, reports Jim Callis of Baseball America. (Twitter links) Barlow, a right-hander who had committed to Fresno State, will earn a $150K bonus. Ogle, a product of the University of Oklahoma, received a $100K bonus.
- George Springer is expected to sign the Astros, tweets Stephen Goff of the Houston Examiner. Goff said he would be surprised if the Astros didn't ink their first-round pick, selected 11th overall.
- Right-hander Jack Armstrong, Houston's third-round selection, talks to MLB.com's Brian McTaggart about his elbow problems and how he isn't worried about the signing deadline. The piece also notes that Springer passed his physical with the team last week. Springer and Armstrong are the only two unsigned players among the Astros' first 13 draft picks.
- "The Royals will be offering the biggest bonus in franchise history" to Bubba Starling, writes Sam Mellinger of the Kansas City Star, and while "most observers expect a contract to be signed…there is just enough in [agent Scott] Boras’ history and confidence to make everyone unsure." Mellinger also briefly details Boras' background and his dealings with the Royals over the last several years.
- Rangers officials tell MLB.com's T.R. Sullivan that they don't expect sixth-round pick Derek Fisher to sign a contract. Fisher, the Pennsylvania high school player of the year, has a commitment to the University of Virginia and "his asking price exceeds what the Rangers are willing to pay."
- The Brewers officially announced the signing of second-rounder Jorge Lopez, reports MLB.com's Audrey Snyder. We heard last week that Milwaukee had agreed to terms with Lopez and fifth-rounder Michael Reed, though no final word has yet come on Reed's deal.
- The Phillies have signed seventh-round pick Kenny Giles to a contract with a $250K bonus, reports Baseball America's Jim Callis (Twitter link). Giles, a high-schooler who had committed to the University of Arizona, "has touched 99 mph with his fastball."
- Marlins second-round pick Adam Conley and Diamondbacks seventh-rounder Ben Roberts will "definitely sign," reports Kendall Rogers of Perfect Game USA, while Yankees sixth-round selection Jake Cave is "about 95 percent" signed. (Twitter links)
- Rogers also tweets that Taylor Ard (a 25th-round pick for the Red Sox) and Derek Jones (the Orioles' 13th-rounder) will not sign. Both players have committed to attend Washington State.
- WEEI.com's Alex Speier has an update on the status of every Red Sox pick from the first 10 rounds of the draft, including both signed and unsigned players.
East Notes: Ortiz, McGowan, Rhodes, Uggla
As if Joe DiMaggio didn't have enough honors already, the U.S. Postal Service plans to sell a DiMaggio stamp in 2012, along with stamps bearing the likenesses of three other yet-to-be-announced baseball superstars. A fitting tribute to a legend of the game….or a subtle way of trying to jinx Dan Uggla? If it was the latter, the jinx didn't work, as Uggla extended his hitting streak to 29 games tonight.
Here's some more on Uggla, DiMaggio's old team and the other eastern franchises….
- David Ortiz has been upset about the lack of contract talks between he and the Red Sox, but Fangraphs' Steve Slowinski argues that if negotiations had begun, Ortiz might not liked what he would've heard. "Which would you prefer: a star player that’s mildly hurt you won’t talk about a new contract with him, or one that feels unappreciated and lowballed?" Slowinski asks.
- Dustin McGowan hasn't pitched in the majors since 2008, but the injury-plagued Blue Jays right-hander hopes to finally return this September, reports MLB.com's Gregor Chisholm.
- Speaking of Blue Jays pitchers, Sportsnet.ca's Shi Davidi reports that Toronto has called up right-hander Henderson Alvarez. The 21-year-old will make his first Major League start for the Jays sometime this week.
- Matt Gelb of the Philadelphia Inquirer suggests the Phillies should consider acquiring Arthur Rhodes to provide some left-handed bullpen depth.
- Uggla's hot streak has finally made him look like the player the Braves expected when they acquired him from Florida last winter, writes MLB.com's Mark Bowman.
- The Boston Globe's Nick Cafardo touches on a number of Red Sox-related topics in a fan mailbag, such as the likelihood of Jacoby Ellsbury signing a contract extension, how Josh Reddick has improved his trade value and if the Red Sox would get involved in the bidding for Jose Reyes this winter.
- The Yankees won't call up Jesus Montero for Tuesday's game with the Angels, reports Marc Carig of the Star-Ledger. There had been speculation that Montero would soon be in pinstripes given the team's announcement that Jorge Posada would be relegated to a bench role.
- Orioles manager Buck Showalter told Bill Madden of the New York Daily News that while fans focus on the payroll gap between big-market and small-market clubs, "the real disparity, the disparity that's hurting baseball, is the disparity that no one sees — the amount of money being spent on scouting and player development." In a follow-up piece for the Baltimore Sun, Robbie Levin looks at how the O's have fallen behind their AL East rivals in developing Latin American talent.
- The Marlins have agreed to terms with seventh-round draft pick Ryan Rieger, reports Baseball America's Aaron Fitt. (Twitter link) Rieger, a first baseman, had committed to play for Long Beach State University next year.
Ohio Notes: Youkilis, Stephenson, Anderson
The Indians have a day off while the Reds begin a four-game series with the Rockies tonight at the Great American Ballpark. Here's the latest baseball news from the Buckeye State…
- Cincinnati native Kevin Youkilis told ESPN Boston's Joe McDonald that if he were to leave the Red Sox, he would enjoy playing for his hometown Reds. Youkilis is under contract through 2012, with the Sox holding a $13MM option for 2013 on "the Greek God of Walks." Youkilis will be 34 on Opening Day 2013, so while $13MM is a bargain for a player with Youkilis' production, it's possible Boston might explore a younger, cheaper third baseman like prospect Will Middlebrooks. The Reds have Scott Rolen's contract coming off the books after 2012 and could have a hole at third unless Todd Frazier or Yonder Alonso catches on at the hot corner.
- There is a "greater than 50% chance" that Reds first-round draft pick Robert Stephenson will attend the University Of Washington rather than sign with Cincinnati, tweets Kendall Rogers of Perfect Game USA. Stephenson, selected 27th overall by the Reds, had already committed to Washington and is "an academic type," according to Rogers.
- With Drew Pomeranz and Alex White shipped to Colorado in the Ubaldo Jimenez trade, MLB.com's Jordan Bastian talks to several Indians executives about the pitching depth still left in the club's minor league system.
- Perhaps one more young arm can be added to that mix — Baseball America's Jim Callis tweets that the Tribe have signed right-hander Cody Anderson, a 14th-round pick in the June amateur draft. Anderson's bonus was worth $250K. Callis describes Anderson as having "intriguing size (6-4/225) [and an intriguing] fastball" that clocks in between 92-96 mph. Anderson had been committed to attend Texas Christian University.
Quick Hits: Nationals, Reyes, Red Sox, Upton
Sunday night linkage..
- With the August 15th deadline a week away, the Nationals have yet to make any real progress in reaching agreements with their top four draft picks, GM Mike Rizzo told Adam Kilgore of the Washington Post. The Nats are satisfied that infielder Anthony Rendon, pitcher Alex Meyer, supplemental round pick outfielder Brian Goodwin and third round pick Matt Purke are all in good health.
- One Mets official last week told Andy Martino of the New York Daily News (via Twitter) that he expects the Red Sox, Angels, and Nationals to be the top competition for Jose Reyes this winter.
- Back in November when the Diamondbacks were shopping Justin Upton, it was rumored that they would likely request Daniel Bard and Jacoby Ellsbury from the Red Sox in a deal. Today, Nick Piecoro of the Arizona Republic writes that it looks like a good no-deal for Arizona.
- It took a little bit of time, but outfielder Kosuke Fukudome appears to be getting used to life with the Indians, writes MLB.com's Jordan Bastian. The Tribe acquired Fukudome and roughly $3.9MM from the Cubs for minor leaguer outfielder Abner Abreu and reliever Carlton Smith.
Quick Hits: Hairston, Angels, Pirates, Phillies
On this date in 2009, the Indians sent Carl Pavano to the Twins for a player to be named later (Yohan Pino). Pavano won five games down the stretch for Minnesota and has worn a Twins uniform ever since. Pino, meanwhile, now pitches for the Blue Jays' Double-A affiliate in New Hampshire, having been dealt for cash considerations earlier this year. As we wait to find out whether we'll see any major August trades this year, let's check out today's links….
- The Mets came very close to trading Scott Hairston to the Braves in July, but ultimately nixed the deal, according to Andy Martino of the New York Daily News (via Twitter).
- A club official tells Peter Gammons (Twitter link) that the Red Sox and Yankees are blocking waiver claims on relievers and starters, respectively.
- Newsday's Ken Davidoff identifies a few August trade candidates and a few contenders with outstanding needs.
- The Angels are one team named by Davidoff as an August buyer, and GM Tony Reagins agrees. As he says to Kevin Baxter of the Los Angeles Times, "We think there will be some opportunities later on that may materialize."
- GM Neal Huntington tells Michael Sanserino of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette that the Pirates hope to become a "consistent championship caliber organization," rather than merely finishing above .500. Unfortunately for the Pirates and their fans, the team's current nine-game losing streak has put them on pace for a 19th straight losing season.
- Despite frequently moving prospects for impact players, the Phillies haven't depleted their farm system, writes Marc Narducci of the Philadelphia Inquirer.
Red Sox Release Kevin Millwood
Kevin Millwood cleared out his Pawtucket locker and left the Red Sox organization after Saturday's game, reports Maureen Mullen of CSNNE.com. Pawtucket's official Twitter feed confirms that the right-hander was granted his release by the Sox.
Millwood signed a minor league deal with the Red Sox in May. He elected to remain in the organization at the time of his June opt-out date, with an understanding that the opportunity to join another team could be revisited later in the season. A month and a half later, the 36-year-old still hadn't seen any time with the big league club. In 13 Triple-A starts, Millwood recorded a 4.28 ERA, 8.1 K/9, and 3.1 BB/9.
For more Sunday Red Sox notes, click here.