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Roster Notes: Twins, Rockies, Orioles, Yankees

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The Twins are likely to be without Taylor Rogers and Randy Dobnak for the rest of the season, per MLB.com’s Do-Hyoung Park (via Twitter). Rogers has missed most of the second half after spraining a finger at the end of July. Before the injury, Rogers was again effective for the Twinkies, appearing 40 times and posting a 3.35 ERA with nine saves and eight holds, though he does have four blown saves as well. Dobnak has essentially been a non-contributor. He went on the injured list with a finger sprain on June 21, and he struggled to open the year.

Let’s check on a couple of roster moves made early on Saturday…

    • The Rockies have reinstated Robert Stephenson from the paternity list and optioned Ben Bowden to Triple-A, per the team. The 26-year-old Bowden has a 6.56 ERA/4.84 FIP in 35 2/3 innings. Stephenson has been a productive member of the Rockies’ bullpen, tossing 38 1/3 innings with a 3.76 ERA/4.02 FIP.
    • The Orioles have recalled Dean Kremer from Triple-A, per Roch Kubatko of MASNsports.com (via Twitter). Kremer joins the club as their 29th man for today’s twin bill against the Blue Jays. Kremer will make his 13th start of the season and look to improve upon a 7.25 ERA/6.52 FIP.
    • The Yankees outrighted Jonathan Davis to Triple-A today, per the team. Davis has been an extra man in the Yankees outfield, appearing in just 12 games after being claimed off waivers from the Blue Jays.

Rockies Activate Jon Gray, Promote Colton Welker

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The Rockies announced Wednesday that they’ve reinstated right-hander Jon Gray from the 10-day injured list and called up infielder Colton Welker for his Major League debut. Righty Antonio Santos was also recalled to the MLB roster. In a trio of corresponding moves, the Rox put right-hander Chi Chi Gonzalez on the 10-day injured list with a strained oblique, placed righty Robert Stephenson on the paternity list and optioned infielder Joshua Fuentes to Triple-A Albuquerque.

Gray returns to the club after a minimal stay on the injured list due to inflammation in his right forearm. It was a somewhat ominous diagnosis at the time, given the pronounced struggles Gray endured in the month of August, but a swift return is good news both for the club and for Gray as he nears his first foray into the free-agent market.

To this point in the season, Gray has posted a 4.13 ERA with a 23.1 percent strikeout rate, a 9.8 percent walk rate and a 49.9 percent ground-ball rate in 126 1/3 innings of work. Those solid numbers come in spite of a disastrous month of August, wherein Gray yielded a 6.55 ERA in 22 innings and lasted fewer than five innings in three of his five appearances.

Both Gray and the Rockies have made their mutual interest in some kind of extension known, though the recent injury hiccup could have some impact on the potential for a deal. At the very least, the Rockies likely want to see how Gray responds to 10 days of downtime before determining how to proceed. They reportedly intend to issue a qualifying offer to Gray, but it’s also possible the two sides work out a mutli-year deal at a lesser rate. Gray, of course, could also see what the market has to bear from other clubs upon receiving a QO from the Rockies. Players have 10 days to accept or reject their QOs, and they’re free to talk to other clubs during that time.

Turning to Welker, the 2016 fourth-rounder is getting his first look at the big league level. He’s long been ranked among the better prospects in a generally thin Rockies system, currently sitting eighth among their farmhands at FanGraphs, 20th at MLB.com and 23rd at Baseball America.

Welker has been limited to just 23 games and 93 plate appearances at the Triple-A level in 2021. He’s spent much of the year on the restricted list due to an 80-game suspension issued in May upon testing positive for a banned substance (dehydrochlormethyltestosterone). He’s one of several players to have pushed back against suspensions for trace amounts of the DHCMT long-term metabolite — picograms, in most cases — though to this point all suspensions under such circumstances have seemingly been upheld. (The Wall Street Journal’s Jared Diamond took an in-depth look at the situation last August.)

In his limited sample of work this season, Welker has been productive. He’s slashed .286/.378/.476 with three homers, five doubles, a triple and a 12.4 percent walk rate against a 20.7 percent strikeout rate. He’s spent all of his time at third base, though some scouting reports on Welker feel his range (or lack thereof) will eventually push him to first base. The Rockies don’t currently have a clear long-term answer at either corner infield position, so Welker seems likely to get a chance to prove he’s capable of seizing one of those two spots.

Rockies, Reds Swap Jeff Hoffman For Robert Stephenson

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In a challenge trade of sorts, the Rockies and Reds have agreed to swap a pair of former top pitching prospects. The two clubs agreed to a trade Wednesday sending right-hander Jeff Hoffman and minor league righty Case Williams from Colorado to Cincinnati in exchange for right-hander Robert Stephenson and minor league outfielder Jameson Hannah. The Reds have formally announced the swap.

Hoffman, 28 in January, was the ninth overall pick by the Blue Jays in the 2014 draft and went to the Rockies as the centerpiece of the blockbuster deadline swap that shipped Troy Tulowitzki to Toronto. The hope at the time of the deal was that the former East Carolina University ace could develop into a key front-of-the-rotation piece at the ever-challenging Coors Field, but that simply hasn’t panned out.

Jeff Hoffman | John Hefti-USA TODAY Sports

Hoffman has logged Major League innings in each of the past five seasons but never performed up to those lofty prospect expectations. In a total of 230 2/3 frames at the MLB level, he’s compiled a 6.40 ERA and a similarly discouraging 5.58 FIP. Along the way, Hoffman has averaged 7.7 K/9, 4.2 BB/9 and 1.79 HR/9 to go along with a 40.7 percent ground-ball rate.

Unappealing as those baseline numbers are, however, there’s also reason to believe that Hoffman may yet have another gear into which he can tap. As noted here at MLBTR back in May, Hoffman possesses high-end velocity and spin rate on his four-seamer and above-average spin on a curveball that generally befuddled hitters in 2019. The Reds and their affinity for high-spin pitchers may have a different idea about how Hoffman can maximize what looks to at least be a viable two-pitch mix — be it concentrating his four-seamer more in the top of the zone, altering his release point or any number of other possible tweaks.

Hoffman is out of minor league options, so he’ll need to open the 2021 season on the Reds’ roster. If they’re able to successfully tap into his still-dormant potential, he’d be controllable for another four seasons.

The tale of Stephenson in Cincinnati is rather similar. He’s a hard-throwing 27-year-old who is out of minor league options and at various points ranked among the game’s elite pitching prospects but has yet to develop into a consistent producer.

Robert Stephenson | David Kohl-USA TODAY Sports

Stephenson has had recent success, however, giving the Reds 64 2/3 frames of 3.76 ERA and 3.63 FIP ball with 11.3 K/9 against 3.3 BB/9 as recently as 2019. Unfortunately for both the Reds and Stephenson, he followed that up with a ghastly 2020 effort in which he served up 11 runs in just 10 innings — thanks largely to an astonishing eight home runs allowed.

It’s worth noting that Stephenson, like Hoffman, possesses excellent velocity and spin rate on his fastball — both of which contributed to him recording an 18.7 percent swinging-strike rate across the past two seasons. Stephenson’s whiff rate, in fact, ranked among the 99th percentile of all big league relievers in 2019, so there’s plenty of reason to think that he could also emerge (or reemerge) as a viable setup piece for the Rockies. He’s controlled for three more seasons — one less year than they controlled Hoffman.

Hannah, 23, was a second-round pick by the A’s back in 2018 but was traded to the Reds in the 2019 swap that brought righty Tanner Roark to Oakland. He has just one full professional season under his belt after this year’s minor league campaign was canceled, having slashed .274/.339/.369 at Class-A Advanced in ’19. Hannah currently ranks 15th among Cincinnati farmhands at MLB.com and 23rd at FanGraphs, drawing praise for a combination of plus speed, above-average fielding and an average or better hit tool. Hannah lacks power, and scouting reports peg his arm as below average as well.

Williams was the Rockies’ fourth-round pick just this past summer. He’s yet to pitch in a pro game due to the cancellation of the 2020 minor league system and was at least somewhat of a surprise pick, as he didn’t rank in the draft’s top 200 prospects at MLB.com or the top 500 at Baseball America.

However, as GM Jeff Bridich explained to MLB.com’s Thomas Harding at the time, Williams was a local product whom the club had scouted extensively. It’s possible that with a full high school season, of course, Williams would’ve been vaulted onto those pre-draft rankings. And it’s clear that the Rox aren’t the only club intrigued by Williams and his 96 mph heater, as evidenced by the very fact that the Reds have had him included in today’s swap. Indeed, Bobby Nightengale of the Cincinnati Enquirer tweets that Cincinnati GM Nick Krall now says his team planned to draft Williams before the Rockies snagged him in the fourth round.

Fansided’s Robert Murray first reported that a trade was in place and that Hannah was in the deal. MLB Network’s Jon Heyman and The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal added details on the framework (Twitter links) before Murray reported all of the names involved.

Reds Designate Cody Reed

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The Reds have designated left-hander Cody Reed for assignment, Bobby Nightengale of the Cincinnati Enquirer was among those to report. The club reinstated righty Robert Stephenson in a corresponding move.

Reed, now 27, joined the Reds in the team’s 2015 trade with the Royals centering on righty Johnny Cueto. Reed debuted in the majors the next season, but he didn’t begin truly making his mark in the bigs until 2018. Between then and last season, Reed tossed 49 1/3 innings of 3.65 ERA/3.59 FIP ball with 8.94 K/9, 2.92 BB/9 and an exemplary 63.2 percent groundball rate. Reed wasn’t able to carry that success into this season, though, as he allowed six earned runs on 10 hits and eight walks (10 strikeouts) in 9 1/3 frames before the Reds jettisoned him. They’ll have a week to trade, release or send Reed through waivers, though he’s out of minor league options.

Stephenson, 27, made his sole appearance of the year July 25 before landing on the IL with a back injury. He was a key part of the Reds’ bullpen last year, when he amassed 64 2/3 frames of 3.76 ERA/3.63 FIP ball with 11.27 K/9 and 3.34 BB/9.

Breakout Candidate: Robert Stephenson

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We don’t know if or when the 2020 Major League Baseball season will begin, but should it occur, the Reds will enter the campaign as one of the most interesting teams in the game. You wouldn’t normally say that about a club in the throes of a six-year playoff drought – one that hasn’t even posted a .500 season during that span – but the Reds made a spirited effort to upgrade their roster over the winter. Cincinnati’s additions figure to help the team in what could be a wide-open race in the National League Central, though it will obviously need its top performers from 2019 to continue their strong play. That includes right-handed reliever Robert Stephenson, who may be on the verge of a breakout.

Now 27 years old, Stephenson entered pro baseball as the 27th overall pick in the 2011 draft. He was a consensus top-100 prospect for a few years during his days as a minor leaguer, though he hasn’t eluded adversity by any means. It took Stephenson quite some time to find his niche in the majors, where he worked as both a starter and a reliever from 2016-18 and put up an ugly 5.47 ERA/5.50 FIP with 8.64 K/9 and 5.67 BB/9 over 133 1/3 innings. Stephenson was exclusively a reliever last season, though, and the proverbial light bulb went on.

Across 57 appearances and 64 2/3 innings, Stephenson logged a 3.76 ERA/3.63 FIP with 11.27 K/9 and 3.34 BB/9. Those make for good numbers, not otherworldly production, but a deeper dive suggests Stephenson may have more in the tank.

Among qualified relievers in 2019, Stephenson ranked third in swinging-strike percentage (18.9), trailing only the Brewers’ Josh Hader and the Rays’ Nick Anderson. Those two are rightly regarded as superb relievers. For Stephenson, a notable increase in velocity was one of the causes of his success. After averaging 93.2 mph on his fastball in 2018, the number jumped to 95.0 a year ago. However, Stephenson’s slider – not his fastball – was his go-to pitch. He threw it a little under 57 percent of the time, per FanGraphs, which graded it as the best in baseball among all relievers. The pitch was indeed an absolute nightmare to contend with for hitters, who mustered an abysmal .176 weighted on-base average/.198 xwOBA against it, according to Statcast.

Speaking of Statcast, it ranked Stephenson as a top-notch hurler in several categories last year. See for yourself…

  • Fastball velocity: 78th percentile
  • Exit velocity: 81st percentile
  • Fastball spin: 86th percentile
  • Strikeout percentage: 88th percentile
  • xwOBA: 98th percentile
  • Hard-hit percentage: 98th percentile

That’ll do. Granted, Stephenson did benefit from a .230 batting average on balls in play against in 2019, but considering his tendency to limit meaningful contact, he deserves a good amount of credit for that. If he’s going to take the next step, though, keeping the ball out of the air would probably help. Stephenson owns a career 34.9 percent groundball rate, including just 31.8 last season. That said, the home run bug didn’t bite him, which it did with so many other pitchers. Only 12.7 percent of fly balls Stephenson yielded left the yard. Beyond that, a better showing versus opposite-handed hitters would help push Stephenson into the upper tier when it comes to preventing runs. Left-handed hitters’ wOBA (.315) off him was 94 points higher than righties’ (.221). That’s not to say a .315 wOBA is particularly threatening, however, as it’s in line with the figure light hitters such as Colin Moran and Nick Ahmed recorded last season.

There is undoubtedly plenty to like with Stephenson. Even if he just matches last year’s output, Stephenson may be one of the reasons the Reds push for contention in 2020. But if Stephenson puts it all together, we could be looking at one of the premier relievers in baseball.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Reds Offense, Not The Bullpen, Responsible For Struggles In Close Games

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The Reds bullpen crumbled down the stretch in 2019, but confidence remains high in their core group of high-impact relievers, per Bobby Nightengale of the Cincinnati Enquirer.

They formed the league’s best unit over the first half of the season, but the pressure never let up as the Reds finished with more one-run margins than any other team in the game. 57 one-run games plus another 31 games with a two-run margin made the difference in an up-and-down season for Cincinnati. Interestingly, President of Baseball Ops pretty clearly assigned blame in these games to the offense, defending the bullpen in saying, “When they did let things get away, I think they were, at times, unfairly scrutinized because I really think when the offense had chances to provide separating runs, get big leads, jump out, we just didn’t get quite enough of that, taking pressure off the pitching at times.”

The bullpen finished middle-of-the-pack by ERA, FIP, and fWAR, though admittedly closer to the top than the bottom. Despite all the close games, the unit still finished 25th in innings pitched, a good indicator for the starting rotation. All things considered, the Reds enter the offseason feeling pretty good about Raisel Iglesias, Michael Lorenzen, Amir Garrett, and Robert Stephenson making up the core of their relief unit.

[RELATED – Three Needs: Cincinnati Reds]

All signs point to another eventful winter for the Reds, but it’s the offense where Williams is focusing his attention. Despite some breakout power in the forms of Eugenio Suarez and Aristides Aquino, the Reds finished 25th in the majors in runs scored. Their offense as a whole finished with just an 87 wRC+, also ranking 25th in the MLB. They have a ways to go to join the league’s elite in this regard: 11 teams finished with 100+ weighted runs created plus, 8 of whom made the postseason. The Cardinals 95 wRC+ was the lowest of any team in the postseason.

Health Notes: Angels, Gordon, Brewers, M. Kemp, Reds

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The Angels appear likely to activate left fielder Justin Upton sometime during their upcoming road trip from June 13-23, Jeff Fletcher of the Orange County Register suggests. Upton, out all season because of a toe injury, began a rehab assignment last Friday. Meanwhile, injured shortstop Andrelton Simmons is “progressing quickly” and may start taking live at-bats soon, per Fletcher. Simmons hasn’t played since May 20 because of a Grade 3 left ankle sprain.

  • The Mariners activated second baseman Dee Gordon from the 10-day injured list Tuesday, the team announced. They optioned righty Matt Festa to Triple-A Tacoma in a corresponding move. Gordon’s back after missing 19 games with a right wrist contusion. The 31-year-old trade candidate is off to a .280/.309/.366 start (85 wRC+) with three home runs and 12 steals on 14 attempts across 177 plate appearances.
  • Brewers right-hander Jhoulys Chacin is on track to return during their series in San Diego, which runs from June 17-19, Tom Haudricourt of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel tweets. Chacin has been on the IL since June 2 with a lower back strain. Before that, he struggled to build on last season’s quality performance, logging 58 innings of 5.74 ERA/5.75 FIP ball with 6.83 K/9 and 4.5 BB/9.
  • Mets minor league outfielder Matt Kemp is dealing with lingering effects of a broken rib he suffered in April, according to Mike Puma of the New York Post. The Mets placed Kemp on the minor league IL as a result. The 34-year-old Kemp settled for a minors pact with the Mets on May 24, three weeks after Cincinnati released him. Kemp slashed a brutal .200/.210/.283 (23 wRC+) in 62 plate appearances with Cincy and hasn’t been much better as a member of the Mets’ Triple-A affiliate in Syracuse. So far, Kemp has hit .235/.278/.324 (52 wRC+) in 36 tries at the minors’ top level.
  • Reds righty reliever Robert Stephenson began a Triple-A rehab stint Tuesday, according to the team. Stephenson went to the IL on May 31 with a cervical strain. Once a well-regarded starting pitching prospect, Stephenson looked as if he was emerging as a credible reliever before his injury. In his first full-time look out of the bullpen, the 26-year-old has notched a 3.96 ERA/2.58 FIP with 12.6 K/9 and 3.6 BB/9 across 25 innings.

Reds Place Robert Stephenson On IL, Activate Zach Duke

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The Reds announced today that they have placed righty Robert Stephenson on the 10-day injured list. He’ll be replaced on the active roster by southpaw Zach Duke, who is back from an IL stint for a right calf strain.

Stephenson is said to be dealing with a cervical strain. There’s really no indication at this point of how long he might be sidelined. Hopefully, it’ll only require a short bit of rest.

It’s unfortunate to see a health issue arise now for Stephenson, who has finally found something at the MLB level at 26 years of age. The former first-round pick has largely struggled in prior opportunities.

Stephenson is only carrying a 3.96 ERA in 25 innings this year, due in no small part to a low 58.6% strand rate. But he has shown signs of becoming a dominating reliever.

Moving to a full-time relief role has worked out quite nicely. Stephenson isn’t showing a huge fastball velocity jump, but he has all but shelved his change-up and drastically increased the usage of his slider. He now hucks it in with spin on over three of every five pitches.

Those changes have resulted in a hefty 21.1% swinging-strike rate, which Stephenson has converted into 12.6 K/9 while permitting a palatable 3.6 BB/9. Statcast calculates that he’s allowing just 28.6% hard contact.

Also heading onto the active roster for the Reds is lefty Wandy Peralta. There was another opening when Lucas Sims was optioned down after his spot start yesterday. The team also shifted starter Alex Wood to the 60-day injured list to make 40-man room for the claim of R.J. Alaniz. That’s a paper move regarding Wood, since he has already missed more than the sixty day minimum.

NL Notes: Stanton, Spangenberg, Hernandez, Reds

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The Marlins are “willing to engage” other clubs in trade talks regarding Giancarlo Stanton, tweets MLB.com’s Jon Morosi. That much has already been clear — Yahoo’s Jeff Passan indicated yesterday that four clubs had already had some level of dialogue with the Marlins regarding Stanton, who has cleared revocable waivers — but Morosi adds that there have yet to be any serious negotiations regarding the current MLB home run leader. Stanton is the hottest hitter on the planet right now, but he’s also owed a staggering $298.64MM through the end of the 2027 campaign. And while he can technically opt out after the 2020 season, doing so would mean forfeiting the remaining seven years and $218MM on his deal as he heads into his age-31 campaign. Stanton also has a full no-trade clause, which only adds a further layer of complexity.

A few more notes from the National League…

  • After an injury-ruined 2016 season, Padres third baseman Cory Spangenberg has begun to force his way into the team’s plans, writes MLB.com’s AJ Cassavell. Spangenberg tore his right hamstring on two different occasions last year and was limited to 14 games, and he opened the 2017 campaign in Triple-A El Paso. The former first-round pick finally received regular playing time in the Majors this summer, and he’s run with the opportunity while thoroughly impressing manager Andy Green, Cassavell writes. “He was angry about being in the Minor Leagues, thought he belonged in the big leagues and handled it right,” Green added. “He’s gone out and proved it. He’s earned his spot.” Spangenberg entered play Wednesday hitting .280/.333/.442 on the season and .336/.413/.617 in the second half. The strong play of Spangenberg and second baseman Carlos Asuaje has pushed Yangervis Solarte to shortstop in recent weeks.
  • Right-hander David Hernandez tells Nick Piecoro of the Arizona Republic that the Diamondbacks organization feels like home, and just a couple of weeks into his second stint with the team, it “kind of feels like [he] never left.” Hernandez discussed his struggles in recent seasons with Piecoro and also credits the addition of a slider to his fastball/curveball repertoire as a key factor in his resurgence. Hernandez acknowledges that he was wary of using the new pitch in Spring Training with the Giants, as he was trying to earn a roster spot and was reluctant to use a pitch that he had only recently adopted. He began mixing it in with the Braves’ Triple-A affiliate, though, and the results have been terrific. All three of Hernandez’s offerings carry positive pitch values (per Fangraphs), and he’s posted a 2.01 ERA with 9.2 K/9 against 1.8 BB/9 through 40 1/3 innings this year.
  • The Reds may have more question marks in their pitching staff heading into the final six weeks of the season than they did entering the year, writes Zach Buchanan of the Cincinnati Enquirer. The cavalcade of injuries that has beset the team’s rotation has deprived the Reds of looks at a number of young arms and also created uncertainty around preseason rotation locks such as Anthony DeSclafani and Brandon Finnegan. A six-man rotation could be on the horizon, Buchanan notes, and Robert Stephenson is already set to rejoin the rotation this weekend. Manager Bryan Price also indicated that right-hander Sal Romano will continue starting, per Buchanan. The skipper also indicated that righty reliever Austin Brice could be done for the year due to a lat injury.

NL Notes: Franco, Capps, Stephenson, Gsellman

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The Phillies have at least held internal discussions about giving third baseman Maikel Franco some time at Triple-A, manager Pete Mackanin told reporters including Jim Salisbury of CSNPhilly.com. Though nothing has been decided, and Mackanin was non-committal, that’s certainly a notable development. Franco, 24, has long been viewed as a building block for the Phils. But he took a step back last year after an excellent 2015 season, and currently owns a disappointing .209/.268/.349 slash through 190 plate appearances in the current campaign.

Here’s more from around the National League:

  • It’s still not clear just when righty Carter Capps will make his Padres debut. As Dennis Lin of the San Diego Union-Tribune reports on Twitter, skipper Andy Green indicated that the reliever “drew mixed reviews” for his work on the bump yesterday. He’s scheduled to throw against live hitters in another controlled scenario on Friday. Capps, who missed all of 2016 due to Tommy John surgery, has struggled in eight rehab appearances thus far.
  • The Reds have optioned righty Robert Stephenson to Triple-A, C. Trent Rosecrans of the Cincinnati Enquirer tweets. He’ll be replaced by fellow right-hander Jackson Stephens. Things have not gone as hoped for the former first round draft pick. Through 24 2/3 innings in 13 appearances, he carries an 8.03 ERA. Stephenson has been knocked around for 33 hits (including seven long balls) while recording 27 strikeouts against 16 walks. It remains to be seen whether he’ll return to starting upon his return to the minors.
  • With several starters nearing returns, the Mets may again have a bit of extra rotation depth. That will likely force righty Robert Gsellman to the pen — and possibly, into quite a prominent role there. As Kevin Kernan of the New York Post writes, some within the Mets organization believe Gsellman’s stuff and attitude make him a good fit for the closer’s role. Addison Reed is currently filling in for the injured Jeurys Familia in the ninth.
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