Odds & Ends: Bay, Holliday, Bruney
Monday night linkage..
- Daniel Barbarisi of The Providence Journal points out that Boston giving Jason Bay a backloaded contract would do nothing to keep them out of luxury tax territory. Payroll is calculated by totalling the average yearly earnings of a player, not a player's year-to-year salary. However, Barbarisi offers up a number of other ways the Red Sox could retain Bay without getting hammered by the luxury tax.
- Chuck Brownson of The Hardball Times writes that the Cardinals can afford to be patient with Matt Holliday as long as alternatives remain on the open market. Brownson feels that Mark DeRosa signing with the Giants put a little more pressure on St. Louis.
- Brian Bruney told Bill Ladson of MLB.com that he wants to close for the Nationals in 2010. Bruney will have to compete with newly acquired Matt Capps for the role.
Odds & Ends: Zambrano, Cabrera, Molina
Links for Monday…
- Matt Klaassen of Fangraphs gave his thoughts on the Orioles' "enviable outfield logjam." In his Offseason Outlook for the club, Tim suggested that Luke Scott could make sense as a trade candidate.
- A week ago, we heard conflicting reports about whether or not the Yankees had talked to the Cubs about acquiring Carlos Zambrano. SI.com's Jon Heyman reports, via Twitter, that the Yankees "definitely" inquired, and speculates that Zambrano is "eminently available."
- In a piece for the Atlanta Journal-Constitution, David O'Brien suggested in passing that the Braves could potentially use Melky Cabrera as a trade chip. Heyman tweets that the Cubs would be very interested, if the Braves were to make Cabrera available.
- ESPN's Jerry Crasnick says Bengie Molina "might be willing to consider" a two-year deal. So far the Mets are at one year with an option.
- Geoff Baker of the Seattle Times says Mariners GM Jack Zduriencik must retain at least one of Cliff Lee and Felix Hernandez long-term.
- Derek Zumsteg of U.S.S. Mariner gives us a Milton Bradley chronology.
- CSNBayArea.com's Mychael Urban tweets that he's heard a whisper connecting the Giants to free agent reliever Kiko Calero.
- WEEI's Alex Speier examines the differences between the contracts of John Lackey and A.J. Burnett. In case you missed it, Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe revealed on Wednesday that Lackey must play for the league minimum in 2015 "if an old elbow injury forced him to miss significant time with surgery any time during the deal."
- Dave Cameron of FanGraphs says statheads and scouts are mostly in agreement these days, and Moneyball would be a very different book if Michael Lewis wrote it today.
Matt Holliday’s Best Offer
Based on published reports, let's try to determine the best offer Matt Holliday has received.
- Tracy Ringolsby, then of the Rocky Mountain News, reported that Holliday rejected a four-year, $82MM extension from the Rockies in the spring of 2008. Ringolsby's colleague Dave Krieger talked to Holliday about the offer, and learned that it did not include a no-trade clause. In another article, Ringolsby put the offer at four years and $72MM, and noted that Holliday would've been able to void the contract if dealt.
- Did the Rockies really top out at four years? Reader Dan B. passed along this video of 9NEWS' Susie Wargin interviewing Rockies GM Dan O'Dowd in November of '08. About 35 seconds into the video, O'Dowd said the Rockies offered Holliday $107.5MM over seven years during Spring Training of '08. That comes to a salary of $15.36MM, but it's the only $100MM+ offer Holliday received.
- ESPN's Buster Olney reported that the Cardinals' offer to Holliday this winter guaranteed five years, while Joe Strauss of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch put the salary at $15-16MM. If both reports are accurate, the Cardinals' best offer could not exceed five years and $80MM.
- It appears that in terms of total dollars, Holliday's pre-John Lackey offer from the Red Sox was the best. Boston's five-year offer was initially pegged at $82.5MM, while today John Tomase of the Boston Herald says it was $85MM.
- It seems that Holliday's best offer in terms of yearly salary was $20.5MM from the Rockies before the '08 season, but the lack of a no-trade clause devalued it. It appears that the Red Sox outdid the Cardinals by a million or two per year, but Boston's offer is no longer on the table. Perhaps Scott Boras is holding out for a sixth guaranteed year or $18MM per, but with no obvious competition there's no reason for the Cardinals to raise their offer. The Orioles' interest waned quickly and the Mets are currently focused on Jason Bay. In Boras' perfect world Bay would not sign with the Mets, and they'd tangle with the Cards for Holliday.
Cafardo On Red Sox, Hudson, Garland
In his latest column, Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe speculates about where "old hands" such as Randy Johnson, Pedro Martinez, and John Smoltz could land. Here are some of Cafardo's other notes:
- The Red Sox "are debating whether they’ll go for it and pay luxury tax money," as their payroll approaches the $170MM mark.
- If the Sox wanted to sign Jason Bay, they could offer a low, one-year base salary with three heavily backloaded option years. With as much as $48MM coming off their books next winter, they would be better equipped to pay Bay after 2010.
- Baseball executives think that plenty of good values will be available by mid-January, with some established major league players having to sign minor league contracts. One NL GM says "the Pirates will load up" on this type of player.
- The Mets are still the team most interested in Orlando Hudson, but would have to find a way to move Luis Castillo.
- A market is starting to form for Jon Garland, and the Rangers seem to be the early frontrunner.
- Other Rangers notes: The team might prefer Jermaine Dye to Vladimir Guerrero, since Dye can still play the outfield (albeit not particularly well, according to UZR/150). Texas and Minnesota could also be good fits for Miguel Tejada.
- The Indians aren't saying Fausto Carmona is available, but baseball execs feel that the club would have to listen on any offers.
Odds & Ends: Yankees, Beltre, Carroll
Merry Christmas everyone! It's time to see what news has been left for us under the tree. I hope there's a vortex football in there for me as well…
- Tracy Ringolsby of FOX Sports took a look at the offseason thus far in the National League. For his portion on the Cubs, Ringolsby writes that they got the better end of the Milton Bradley-for-Carlos Silva swap.
- Maury Brown of The Biz of Baseball counted up the money spent by every team in baseball from 1999-2009, using the end of year salary totals. Over this stretch, the Yankees have spent 44% more than the number two top spender, the Red Sox.
- Sam Borden of the LoHud Yankees Blog takes a look at the remaining free agents who could fill the Yankees' vacancy in left field. Three names that jump out to him: Jonny Gomes, Xavier Nady, and Reed Johnson. Although Gomes had a strong '09 offensively (.879 OPS), his career defensive metrics leave much to be desired. Nady, of course, is only an attractive option if healthy.
- The A's are talking with free agent Adrian Beltre, according to the headline of a post by Mychael Urban of Comcast SportsNet. We first heard that Oakland was interested a week ago, but "only in an Oakland economy size financial package." Urban's piece says that Beltre is reportedly seeking $10-15MM per season.
- Bill Shaikin of the Los Angeles Times writes that Jamey Carroll's contract with the Dodgers does not include the "Ramirez Provision", which is a clause that mandates a donation to the team's charity. While owner Frank McCourt said that the clause would be standard for all contracts after Manny Ramirez signed his new deal, a grievance filed by the player's union may have caused the Dodgers to ease up on the requirement.
- The Chiba Lotte Mariners will be sending a representative to California to negotiate with/for Dodgers pitcher Eric Stults, according to Patrick Newman of NPB Tracker who passes along the report from Spinochi. The Japanese club has been interested in Stults for a couple of months and have already been rebuffed by the Dodgers once already.
Discussion: Johnny Damon and Jason Bay
While its difficult to criticize negotations from the outside, two major free agents appear to have negotiated their way out of ideal situations this year.
In 2009, Johnny Damon closed out his four-year, $52MM contract in style, hitting .282/.365/.489 with 24 HRs. This offseason it was clear that Damon wanted to re-up with the Yankees, but of course, at the right price. Early in the offseason, reports suggested that Boras was seeking a three-year contract at roughly the same rate ($13MM/year) as his last deal.
After the Bombers signed Nick Johnson to take his place, word got out that Damon would have settled for $20MM over two years. While the Yanks' proposal of $14MM still wasn't quite close enough, it is possible that the two sides could have reached an accord. The Giants could be a suitor, as they were in on the Johnson chase, but it's doubtful that they would want to put him in the outfield.
Meanwhile, after rejecting a four-year, $60MM offer from Boston in July, Jason Bay appears to be having some trouble finding a new home.
The signing of Mike Cameron likely means that the Red Sox will be moving on, leaving the Mets as the top suitor. While some suggest that Omar Minaya & Co. will be willing to fork over the five-year pact that agent Joe Urbon has been asking for, it has been said that he does not want to play in Queens.
Regardless of what kind of contract each player fetches, it is difficult to imagine either player getting the money they wanted from their respective teams.
Gammons On Bay, Holliday, Gonzalez, Cabrera
Yesterday, Peter Gammons appeared in-studio on WEEI with Dale & Holley to talk about the state of the offseason in Boston. Here are some notes from his hour-long chat…
- It's unlikely that the BoSox will be able to bring back Jason Bay, as they already made him the best offer that he has received.
- Gammons quips that Bay would "rather play in Beirut than Queens" and adds that he should have taken Boston's offer of $60MM over four years back in July.
- As for the Mets, if they are unable to land Bay, Gammons doesn't see them adding anybody else of a similar caliber. With their unwillingness to go over the luxury tax threshold, they are more likely to pocket the money to make a mid-season deal.
- Gammons calls Scott Boras "brilliant," but questions his wisdom in turning down the five-year $82.5MM offer the Red Sox made Matt Holliday. That could be the best offer he has seen so far.
- While we have heard rumors of an Adrian Gonzalez-to-Boston swap for months, the two sides have yet to exchange names. Gammons says it would be virtually impossible for the Padres to deal him before July.
- Miguel Cabrera could become available if the Tigers stumble out of the gate. If he is available, Boston would be interested, despite concerns about him off-the-field.
- Gammons expects Josh Beckett to be the second most-coveted free agent on the market next winter, behind Cliff Lee. Naturally, a healthy season would go a long way towards boosting his value.
- After reading the post here on MLBTradeRumors about Frank Wren saying that the Braves were going to get a major bat, he was surprised to later find out that the slugger was Troy Glaus. Trading Javier Vazquez and Rafael Soriano was about saving $16MM, not about the players they received.
Jason Bay Rumors: Thursday
6:32pm: Joel Sherman of the New York Post is critical of how the Mets have handled negotiations with Bay. He said "the Mets are losing their dignity" by spending so much of their offseason time and energy in pursuit of a player "who clearly has major concerns" about coming to New York. Sherman suggests that the Mets should set a 24-hour deadline for Bay to accept their contract offer, and if he doesn't, the club should look at other left field options. Sherman thinks that a player like Jack Cust would be a wiser, lower-cost signing who could provide similar power numbers.
12:00pm: The Jason Bay to Boston rumors aren't exactly gaining momentum. An ESPNBoston.com article classifies the chances of a Bay return as a "long shot," while SI.com's Jon Heyman tweets that the Red Sox would probably only consider Bay for less ("maybe much less") than the Mets' best offer. Gordon Edes of ESPN Boston adds (via Twitter) that Mike Cameron's agent hasn't heard anything about the Sox pursuing another left fielder.
8:36am: In yesterday's round of Jason Bay rumblings, we heard that there could potentially be a renewed mutual interest between Bay and the Boston Red Sox. Today, Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe hears that the pairing would not be inconceivable, but that there are a couple of roadblocks: The Red Sox would have to extend their budget, after committing $15.5MM to Mike Cameron, and a potential contract would probably need to be heavily backloaded.
ESPN.com's Buster Olney agrees with that assessment, since a source tells him that the Red Sox have less than $5MM left in spending money. He writes that signing Bay would mean the Sox either blowing up their budget or having to move a contract or two.
As for the Mets' four-year offer that's still on the table, Olney says that the Mets are feeling more and more like Bay doesn't want to play for them, and are making alternative plans. Newsday's Ken Davidoff thinks it wouldn't be the end of the world if the Mets refused to increase their offer to Bay and he ended up elsewhere.
Jason Bay Rumors: Wednesday
10:48pm: The Red Sox might also be looking into extending an offer to free agent Matt Holliday, reports Mike Silverman of the Boston Herald. However, Silverman notes that signing Bay, let alone the more expensive Holliday, would be difficult.
7:31pm: The Mets have not heard from Bay's agent, Joe Urbon, in the last couple of days, a team official tells Adam Rubin of the New York Daily News. The same official says not to expect the club to ink Bay or Bengie Molina before Christmas.
In other Mets news, Carlos Delgado's delay in returning to baseball via the Puerto Rican winter league is apparently a result of issues related to the hip surgery he had last summer.
6:48pm: Boston has had internal discussions about extending their organizational budget to potentially allow for another offer to be made to Jason Bay, a team source tells Rob Bradford of WEEI. The discussed proposal would be in the vicinity of the four-year, $60MM deal originally pitched to the slugger.
It was widely thought that the signings of John Lackey and outfielder Mike Cameron spelled the end of Bay's tenure with the Red Sox as the club is now teetering on the edge of the $170MM luxury tax threshold.
Odds & Ends: Rangers, Lackey, Yankees
Another round of Wednesday links:
- Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports tweets that Justin Duchscherer is leaning towards an NL team, although he is not sure which one.
- Now that free agent Matt Capps appears to be leaning towards the Nationals, the Rockies are looking into other hurlers on the open market. A major league source tells Thomas Harding of MLB.com that the club is negotiating with free agent Tim Redding. The Rockies flirted with signing him last winter before he signed with the Mets, where he posted a 5.10 ERA in 30 games, including 17 starts.
- The group selected to purchase the Rangers could be in financial trouble, says Craig Calcaterra of NBC Sports.
- Alden Gonzalez of MLB.com thinks that Mark DeRosa could become more valuable to suitors after Matt Holliday and Jason Bay sign, with few other big bats available.
- The Javier Vazquez trade can't be properly evaluated until the Braves spend all of the $8MM they saved in the deal, writes Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports. Still, Rosenthal points out that the Braves should be concerned about the health histories of their free agent signings so far.
- Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe relays some details of John Lackey's contract with Boston, including an interesting conditional option: If an old elbow injury forces Lackey to miss significant time over the course of his contract, he'd have to play for the league minimum in 2015.
- Mark Carig of the Star-Ledger passes on this quote from Yankees GM Brian Cashman, regarding the team's outfield opening: "It won't be a big name situation. I can promise you that."
- Seattle GM Jack Zduriencik says that the two recent trades involving the Mariners and Blue Jays were "complete, separate entities," according to Geoff Baker of the Seattle Times.