Lowe Too Pricey For Red Sox?
Accordig to Sean McAdam of the Boston Herald, Derek Lowe‘s strong finish to the 2008 season may have priced him out of the Red Sox’s range. McAdam believes Lowe will sign for $14-15MM a year over three or four years. He suggests the Red Sox would’ve been more open to the idea at $10MM or so. The Red Sox are believed to be Lowe’s preferred destination, but Nick Cafardo says a dozen other teams are interested (the Mets among them).
Lowe, a Boras client, was never getting paid less than Carlos Silva on the open market. Silva, a far inferior pitcher, has a $12MM average annual salary. I imagine that once the bar for Jon Garland/Carlos Silva level mediocrity is raised again this year, Lowe will find himself more in the $16-18MM range. And Boras should be able to get that fourth year guaranteed. The Red Sox could handle that.
Massarotti On The Red Sox
Tony Massarotti of the Boston Globe takes a look at the upcoming offseason for the Red Sox.
Massarotti says the Sox have had internal discussions about Mark Teixeira, which is not a surprise. The Red Sox definitely have the money for him. Signing Tex would necessitate trading Mike Lowell and moving Kevin Youkilis to third base. Lowell is owed $24MM over the next two years, and he has no-trade protection. He had hip surgery recently and is expected to be ready for spring training. My guess at possible suitors: the White Sox, Indians, Twins, Angels, Brewers, Reds, Dodgers, and Giants.
I thought the Sox would be players for C.C. Sabathia, but Massarotti suggests that is unlikely. He says Boston officials have concerns about Sabathia’s long-term durability. Massarotti does not see the Red Sox as players for any big name starter.
One other note: the Sox have yet to discuss an extension with Jason Bay‘s agent.
Boras Discusses Varitek
Adam Kilgore of the Boston Globe talked to Scott Boras recently about free agent catcher Jason Varitek. As you’d expect, Boras’ spin is heavy on leadership and inherent value, so as to draw attention away from the .313 OBP and .359 SLG. Boras hinted that a multiyear deal would be appropriate.
Calls a great game, can’t hit…that sounds like the mass of freely available backup catchers floating around. To pay Varitek like a starter is to assign a multimillion dollar value to his intangibles. That doesn’t sound like a Theo Epstein approach, especially with his recent quotes about striving for at least league average at every position.
Schilling Rips Manny Again
Curt Schilling apparently ripped former teammate Manny Ramirez on his blog, 38Pitches. The post was removed, but that didn’t stop Evan Brunell from preserving the inflammatory portions. According to Schilling, Ramirez made it clear that if he didn’t get traded he might take the rest of the season off for his knee.
Odds and Ends: Prior, Mulder, Cameron
Links for Wednesday…
- Mark Prior hopes to return to the Padres, according to a blogger who talked to him at a pumpkin patch. That wheelbarrow looks a bit heavy…
- I am still digging through the many applications for the Saturday morning position – thanks for your interest. Tons of great candidates in the mix.
- Viva El Birdos reflects on Mark Mulder‘s time with the Cardinals. Mulder is trying everything he can to get back to his old self.
- Dave Cameron names Mike Cameron the top free agent bargain of last offseason.
- SI.com’s Jon Heyman looks at how the Rays were built.
- Joe Posnanski looks at the divergent paths of the Royals and Rays.
- Sox Machine considers some free agent fits for the White Sox.
- Mets owner Jeff Wilpon spoke about "addition by subtraction" in a recent radio interview.
- I agree with this take on the Mark Ellis signing.
- Patrick Newman believes NPB will eventually soften its stance toward Junichi Tazawa.
- Steve Buckley of the Boston Herald doesn’t like the idea of the Red Sox shifting things around to accomodate Mark Teixeira.
- The Mariners apparently have still not decided on their new GM.
Red Sox Review
Red Sox GM Theo Epstein spoke to the press yesterday, resulting in a slew of articles in the Boston papers.
Tony Massarotti of the Boston Globe runs through the team’s entire 25-man roster. Michael Silverman of the Boston Herald looks at Epstein’s to-do list, as does Joe McDonald of The Providence Journal. Paul Kenyon of the Journal looks at the team’s minor free agents. An overview of various common topics:
- Jason Varitek. Silverman sees an effort to re-sign him for one or two years, while McDonald thinks he will look for three or four. Massarotti thinks things could get nasty here, with Scott Boras in the middle. Sean McAdam of the Boston Herald has an article discussing the Varitek situation.
- Julio Lugo, Jed Lowrie, Jacoby Ellsbury, Coco Crisp. Four players for two starting spots. Epstein didn’t tip his hand as to whether he’ll move any of these players and diminish the depth.
- Kevin Youkilis, Dustin Pedroia, Jonathan Papelbon, Jason Bay. The Sox may explore long-term deals for each. There’s already been talks with Pedroia, though Massarotti thinks he might prefer to go year-to-year as Youkilis has. He suggests Papelbon wants a long-term deal but the Sox may choose to play it safe. McDonald and Massarotti feel the Sox will also explore an extension for Jason Bay.
- Sean Casey, Mike Timlin, Alex Cora, Mark Kotsay. Cora might go if Lugo stays. Timlin may retire. Massarotti does not think Casey will be re-signed, while McDonald doesn’t see Kotsay returning (he wants to start).
- Outside options: Epstein could make a big move, or do very little again. As I mentioned in the Offseason Outlook, C.C. Sabathia might be a better fit than Mark Teixeira.
Offseason Outlook: Boston Red Sox
Next up in our Offseason Outlook series, the Red Sox. Their likely 2009 commitments:
C –
C – Kevin Cash – $400K+
1B – Kevin Youkilis – $3MM+
2B – Dustin Pedroia – $457K
SS – Jed Lowrie – $400K
3B – Mike Lowell – $12MM
IF – Julio Lugo – $9MM
IF – Jeff Bailey – $400K
LF – Jason Bay – $7.5MM
CF – Coco Crisp – $5.75MM
RF – J.D. Drew – $14MM
OF – Jacoby Ellsbury – $406K
DH – David Ortiz – $12.5MM
SP – Josh Beckett – $10.5MM
SP – Daisuke Matsuzaka – $8MM
SP – Jon Lester – $422K
SP – Tim Wakefield – $4MM (club option)
SP – Clay Buchholz – $400K
RP – Jonathan Papelbon – $775K+
RP – Justin Masterson – $400K
RP – Hideki Okajima – $1.75MM
RP – Manny Delcarmen – $421K
RP – Javier Lopez – $840K+
RP – David Aardsma – $404K
RP – Michael Bowden – $400K
That’s about $94MM committed, plus arbitration raises to Cash, Youkilis, Papelbon, and Lopez. Those should nudge the Sox over $100MM. They began the season with a $133MM payroll, and began ’07 at $143MM. The Red Sox have a significant amount of money to spend.
The catcher situation needs to be addressed. The Sox may offer Jason Varitek a one-year deal, or they could consider a free agent like Ivan Rodriguez. The Rangers’ Gerald Laird would be a fine trade target, as he does not require seasoning and is under control for two more seasons. Bengie Molina and Ramon Hernandez also may be available. Joel Sherman suggests Russell Martin could hit the block; the price would be very steep.
Some of Boston’s veteran contracts are starting to look worse, particularly Lowell and Ortiz. Still, neither player performed poorly this year. The Red Sox don’t have a true albatross contract, though the $18MM owed to Lugo is bothersome.
There is not a clear place to add an offensive player aside from catcher. The Sox might take a look at Mark Teixeira, probably to drive the price up more than anything. They can afford him, but then they’d probably have to trade Lowell.
Boston’s ’09 rotation is already above-average, especially if Buchholz gets back on track. Masterson and Bowden could also be rotation candidates. Wakefield is an easy call to exercise at $4MM. Like Teixeira, the Red Sox don’t need C.C. Sabathia. Still, signing him would keep the best available pitcher away from the Yankees. It would not be surprising to see the Sox make an aggressive bid for C.C.
Most of the bullpen should return; maybe the Sox will make a minor reliever signing to eat up some of Mike Timlin‘s innings.
The Red Sox are sitting pretty for ’09, with catching the only glaring need. After that, GM Theo Epstein will have a lot of cash to spend on players who might be considered luxuries. Epstein seems to feel the same way, based on his comments.
Odds and Ends: Dice-K, Varitek, Rolen
Links for Monday…
- Tim Brown and Peter Abraham offer their takes on the top free agents.
- A note from Abraham – if Daisuke Matsuzaka finishes top three in the AL Cy Young vote, he’ll get an extra $2MM in each of the ’09 and ’10 seasons.
- The Mariners could hire their new GM as soon as tomorrow. Geoff Baker discussed the merits of the four candidates in two recent posts.
- Jason Varitek was mum on his future last night.
- Joe Frisaro has the Marlins’ 2009 payroll in the $30-35MM range. They have 15 arbitration-eligible players.
- I came across an interesting note about B.J. Upton. Back in 2004, Devil Rays GM Chuck LaMar wanted to sign Upton to an unprecedented eight or nine-year contract before he reached the Majors. The new Rays regime eventually succeeded with a similar deal for Evan Longoria.
- The Diamondbacks signed a Korean high school catcher named Kim Jae-yoon for $150K.
- Jordan Bastian would be stunned if Scott Rolen exercises his right to opt out of his contract or demand a trade.
- T.R. Sullivan says the Rangers are not in the running for C.C. Sabathia.
- SI.com’s Jon Heyman looks at how the Phillies were built.
Peavy Rumors: Monday
Let’s kick off the day with a roundup of Jake Peavy rumors.
- Peavy is not a fan of the American League or New York, so don’t look for him to land with the Yankees or Mets. The Mets don’t seem interested anyway.
- David O’Brien figures the Braves will have to surrender Yunel Escobar, Kelly Johnson, Tommy Hanson to get it done. Baseball Prospectus’ Kevin Goldstein says Hanson flies under the radar a bit, as he belongs in any discussion of the game’s top pitching prospects.
- Joel Sherman of the New York Post says the Padres were doing a lot of background work recently on Braves center field prospect Jordan Schafer.
- Despite Peavy’s wishes, the Padres have identified four possible AL trading partners for him: the Yankees, Angels, Rangers, and Red Sox. Peavy’s agent says he hasn’t closed any doors but the Boston Herald’s Michael Silverman believes the Red Sox or Yankees would have to pay a steep price in extra compensation to entice the pitcher.
Cafardo’s Latest: Lowe, Maddux, Peavy
Here’s a look at the latest column from Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe.
- Interestingly, the Red Sox are reportedly Derek Lowe‘s preferred destination. It’s unknown whether the Sox intend to add a starter this winter, but they may lose free agent Paul Byrd (and will have to decide on Tim Wakefield‘s $4MM option). Cafardo names a dozen other clubs interested in Lowe: the Yankees, Mets, Tigers, Indians, Cardinals, Cubs, Angels, Braves, Phillies, Rangers, Astros, and Blue Jays.
- Bill Mueller, 38 in March, admits he’d like to play again. Medically, it’s a long shot because he’d need to regrow cartilage in his knees.
- One of Greg Maddux‘s teammates feels he’ll retire. Maddux could return to the Padres as a player/coach (specifically, he’d prefer a bench coach gig).
- The Brewers as a sleeper for Jake Peavy? They’re not on his list, but he’s named other midwest clubs.
- Cafardo believes catchers Bengie Molina and Ramon Hernandez will be available this winter. Makes sense, given the weak free agent market at the position.