Lefty Brett Anderson has decided to accept the qualifying offer issued to him by the Dodgers, ESPN.com’s Buster Olney reports on Twitter. He becomes the third player to accept a qualifying offer this year, joining Colby Rasmus (Astros) and Matt Wieters (Orioles).
Anderson is just 27 years of age and is coming off of a year in which he put up 180 1/3 innings of 3.69 ERA ball. That makes his decision somewhat surprising, at first glance, particularly given his pedigree. And metrics like xFIP (3.51) and SIERA (3.46) felt that Anderson was a bit unlucky, with his 17.0% HR/FB rate probably stands to drop back toward his career levels (11.2%). All told, there was good reason to think he’d draw wide interest as a free agent.
Of course, it’s obviously highly relevant that the talented southpaw failed to reach the 100-inning threshold in any of the four preceding seasons. His results have generally been quite strong, and his 3.72 career ERA is actually a fair bit higher than ERA estimators value his performance, but Anderson has dealt with a wide variety of injuries. He’s battled through Tommy John surgery, a fractured foot, a broken finger, and back issues over his careers.
In short, then, Anderson presented possible suitors with ample risk and plenty of upside. And he faced the same kind of calculus in assessing his decision on the qualifying offer.
It’s worth noting that Anderson was able to earn a $10MM base salary and $2.4MM in incentives in his contract last year, coming off of yet another injury-shortened campaign. It certainly would have been plausible to imagine him signing a nice one-year contract if nothing better was offered, possibly with a club that had already given up an early pick or two to sign other QO-bound free agents.
But there were other considerations at play, too, for Anderson and his reps at the Legacy Agency. In addition to ensuring that he’ll add a hefty, $15.8MM salary to his bank account, the move allows Anderson another opportunity to prove his health and effectiveness. He’ll still be plenty young next year, when the market features nothing close to this season’s mass of top-end talent and overall depth. With a big 2016, then, Anderson could be in prime position to cash in.
Los Angeles will be glad if Anderson does position himself for a big payday, as they would stand to reap the benefits. The team is uniquely situated to take on this kind of salary in a one-year arrangement, and is probably not displeased at the chance to fill a rotation spot with a good arm without binding up future commitments. The team is certainly not done shopping, though, as the rotation still needs to be filled out — including, perhaps, adding another high-level arm alongside ace Clayton Kershaw.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
Not surprised by this actually.
It is a one year offer. He does good with one year offers so far. I like it
3 players accept the Q.O.
Perhaps this starts to curb the narrative about the awful qualifying offer…?
But seriously, 3 players? Who would have guessed it?
I wouldn’t have predicted it, but Rasmus and Anderson make some sense. Wieters surprises me – I didn’t think he was risking much by exploring the market. (I don’t think any of them were risking more than a few million by doing that though).
I keep seeing that comment about about not risking much by exploring the market; in making it you are completely ignoring the fact that they already explored the market- that’s what they’ve been doing for the past five days. If they had like a four hour window to talk to other teams and decide then it would be valid but I just don’t get it with the five day period.
I called this result when the offer was extended. Anderson has been nagged by the injury prone narrative for years, even though it’s somewhat unfair due to his freaky and unrealted problems. Either way he has another opportunity to prove that his wheels aren’t always ready to fly off, and can reenter the market in another year at a releatively young age. If anybody had a case for taking the QO, it was Anderson.
I’d make the case that given his past injury history, he now risks lowering his value back down by getting injured again. This could be his best chance to get a good multi-year contract. I assume he took all of that into consideration and feels he can further increase his value by having another healthy, productive season. It’s a gamble, but he would know the risk for himself better than I, of course.
You get it right with the last line. None of his injuries point to a chronic problem. When the offer was extended I said that whether he takes it will be a reflection of how he feels about his own health. Based on comments he made when he signed with the Dodgers, I got the impression he felt like he’d been unlucky (and so did the Dodgers by signing him). His taking the QO just hammers that point home.
I’m surprised at all except Anderson. Wieters and Rasmus would have had no problem getting nice multiyear deals even with draft pick compensation attached.
– Nelson Cruz got 1yr/$8MM his first time receiving a QO.
– Stephen Drew and Kendrys Morales had to wait until the draft before getting signed.
– If it is questionable, I would sign to a QO.
Now we have to wait a year. One of these players gets hurt, especially Weiters (Scott Boras) and we will have a large backlash. If they all do well and stay healthy there may be no major fix with the QO’s.
Was bound to happen when marginal guys are offered that kind of take it or leave it deal. Rasmus and Anderson would have had a hard time getting a job elsewhere had they rejected. In my opinion, they aren’t worth losing the draft pick. I can even understand Wieters accepting to a point. High dollar long term deals for catchers are quite risky. Although if he performs well in 16 then i see someone paying him.
Good pitcher. With some run support. He gives you a chance every outing.
When he’s not injured
Anderson is making a mistake. He had an injury free year, he should maxamize his value
This very well could be his max value. Not every player who has rejected the QO has gotten paid much. Some have been paid less.
How so? If he goes the whole year again with no injury he may lose the injury stigma associated with him and get a better deal next year.
That’s a big “if,” given his history. He may very well do so, but to ask “how so?” The answer should be obvious.
I would agree, I’m quite surprised actually. But he and his reps had a week to feel out his value, and maybe teams shied away from making him a multi-year commitment at a significant AAV due to his injury history
He’s missed a ton of games in his career and this is his first injury-free year since 2009 and only his second overall. In both of those, he was a (very) slightly above-average pitcher. I don’t think a lot of teams would be clamoring to offer him more value than the QO gives him.
He’s a slightly better and more injury-riddled version of Jon Niese, who the Mets couldn’t give away last offseason despite him making only half of this QO. This is a great deal for Anderson.
Cool, I nailed it
Good news for Dodger fans. Anderson’s injuries have been largely of the freaky nature rather than continued elbow or shoulder problems. He’s young, he throws ground balls and one more year of good health likely earns him a 4-5 year contract next year. I would think 2, maybe three years tops if he were a free agent now.
Exactly. This is the not so subtle detail you won’t get by just looking at numbers.
I think I’ve already officially done better in this year’s FA contest than last year’s now, before it even locks >.>
One other thing accepting the QO does for Anderson is it gives him an inside track at a spot in the rotation of the team with the best current odds (in Vegas) of making the playoffs and winning it all in 2016. Players care about that.
Another point not mentioned by Jeff is that due to his alarming injury history, one can imagine that very few clubs would want to surrender a 1st- or high 2nd-round draft pick in addition to risking a multi-year deal on him.
Not mentioned? I spent 75% of the post talking about the QO decision and his injury history. I don’t need to spell out every step of the math on this, we talk about it all the time.
Next time I’ll be sure to talk about the Vegas odds and the chance to play for a winner, though, thanks.
EDIT: sorry if I sound cranky, lots going on tonight and I saw this comment at a bad moment.
ha, crank it up, Jeff!
I don’t believe he actually took the qualifying offer. This is an injury history that just left guaranteed $45+million at least on the table
Just curios but hypothetically can a team trade a guy that accepts a QO?
Before June 15 of next year, only with the player’s consent. After that point, freely.
Thank you very much Mr. Todd.
Thank you for the explanation Mr. Todd
I think the fact that 3 players accepted QO’s this year bodes well for all players long term.
Next year’s price will probably be $17M , so with these 3 players accepting, there will
probably be less offers given in the future. That of course helps the players as they will
have fewer with draft picks attached.
The relationship between agent and player is ultimately controlled by the latter, and sometimes a decision is a simple matter of not wanting to pack up and move to another city. Maximizing the $$
isn’t always the overriding factor if a player can control where they want to play.