The Blue Jays have announced the signing of righty Marco Estrada, giving him a $26MM guarantee to return to the Toronto rotation for the next two seasons.
Last year was unquestionably a career-year for Estrada, who opened things up in the bullpen but quickly established himself as a key cog for the AL East champs. He ended the season with a stellar 3.13 ERA in his 181 frames.
That figure is both surprising and potentially misleading, as Estrada is no longer able to strike out a batter per inning (as he once did) and doesn’t induce many ground balls. Indeed, advanced metrics saw his results as incredibly lucky. An unsustainable .216 batting average on balls in play and career-low 8.7% HR/FB rate surely played a role.
On the other hand, Estrada has traditionally carried extremely low BABIP-against figures (.261 career), and his contact management ability arguably supports it going forward. Hardly a power pitcher, Estrada gets a ton of pop-ups and possesses an outstanding change-up that (one might think) could hold up well with age. And, most importantly, Toronto doesn’t need a repeat of that stellar run prevention to get what it needs out of this contract.
Estrada had been weighing a qualifying offer by the Jays, meaning he had the option of simply taking a $15.8MM salary for a one-year term. That was surely tempting, as Estrada has earned only about $10MM previously in his career. But the 32-year-old also had a chance at securing a multi-year commitment in free agency, which, given his age, may not ever again come around.
In the end, the sides appear to have chosen a mutually agreeable middle ground. Estrada gets multiple years, foregoing a chance at a third guaranteed season but maintaining a strong $13MM AAV. And the Blue Jays, who were in need of multiple starters, will fill one rotation spot with a manageable commitment.
It’s worth bearing in mind, too, that Estrada’s representatives at TWC Sports have had a chance to gauge the 32-year-old’s market all week long. Last year, Michael Cuddyer only turned down his QO when he knew a deal was in hand with the Mets. In this case, Estrada and his agents likely have a good sense of where things stand, though there’s always some uncertainty until a formal agreement is made.
Joel Sherman of the New York Post first reported that the deal was close (via Twitter) and reported its value (Twitter link). ESPN.com’s Jerry Crasnick reported on Twitter that the deal was done, as did Shi Davidi and Mike Wilner of Sportsnet.ca, who confirmed its length and value.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images
I’m guessing closer to the latter number (29M). That would make him forgo FA. Great deal for both sides.
2/28 is a solid deal for Toronto.
Estrada is meh. I didn’t think Toronto would give him a QO.
You also obviously didn’t watch ANY of his playoff starts.
Playoff starts/games are Way too small a sample.
Sorry, he ALSO had the 5th best ERA in the AL last year…
Ok. I never called him “meh” though.
I am in Toronto and made it to about 25 games this year and Estrada flirted twice this year with no hit bids into the 7 inning and the 8th inning in back to back starts I think in June. Also he had one of the lowest batting averages against at .203 quite remarkable and actually lead all starters.
And in how many games did Donaldson, Revere, Pillar et al make insane plays that should have been hits? Tons, right?
Not really actually. Estrada was a top 10 pitcher in the league at creating soft contact. One of the reasons FIP isn’t great for measuring him is because he throws to contact and gets a lot of weak contact. In fact while his strikeout rate has dropped his hard contact rate has dropped in a similar fashion. He’s gonna get guys to make contact it’s just gonna go straight up or bounce softly to an infielder
You could and should. He has a career 4.19 FIP over 722 innings. That’s exactly “meh”. He’s fine if you want him as a 5th SP, I guess.
If I’m not mistaken though he’s a guy that consistently performs above his FIP pretty much every season. Obviously won’t be able to replicate what he did with that .217 BABIP he posted this year but he should be able to maintain an ERA around 4 and give 180+ innings. There’s value in that. He’s not as bad as your making him out to be FIP just isn’t a great estimator for him
Yeah, youre mistaken ont that, in his 5 full years he’s only outperformed his FIP twice, in fact it goes: under, under, exact same, above, above. So he’s trending the wrong way as his K rate declines. Its pretty obvious that all the times we saw the highlight reel plays from Donaldson, Pillar et al, he was on the mound a lot of the time.
He’s fine as a 5th SP who you’re willing to demote midseason either for an internal/external option and push to the swingman he probably is, but paying that player $15M a year is not wise at all.
ERA 3.13 FIP 4.40 BABIP .217 = he’s actually not good
With peripherals that suggest he won’t repeat it.
He had a 4.28 FIP and a 1.8 WAR over 181 innings. He also had a 8.7% HR/FB rate. Don’t get me wrong, I like the guy. But he was performing over his head. That said, good on the Jays for bringing him back on a two year deal. Especially with Mark Buehrle gone. If he can eat up 175 plus innings and throw up an ERA around 4, he’ll have done his job.
Ever heard of a career year? Mediocre players have one big year and cash in on it. Blue Jays spent 13 mil on a #5 starter. Huge mistake.
No it wasn’t. That’s the going rate for Estrada’s production. And he wasn’t that good last year. Peripherals were mediocre. But it was a good deal for Toronto.
He has a decent fastball, one of the best change ups in the game and a plus plus curveball, so really two plus plus pitches to go with a located fastball that he can effectively change eye levels with. Stud.
Come back Marco!
The QO won’t be accepted… Estrada’s track record and his shaky 2015 4.40 FIP means he shouldn’t bet too much on himself. Nonetheless, a 2 yr/29MM deal is a solid buy for Toronto.
Think about it Bautista is going to earn 14 million if Estrada gets a 2/28-29 thats a lot of money, he’s already going to make more than Edwin
Marco has a sub 4 era in 3 of his last 4 seasons and while is not a top of the rotation guy (at least i dont think so, its possible if he repeats last year) this could be a steal for us on a short term deal. I expect marco to hover around the high 3 era spot for next year. Definitely market value.
I hope this is wrong, Marco is a 10-12 million dollar guy only. You can’t look at the small sample last year and give him 29 million over 2 years. I hope it’s a 2 year deal 10 and 11 for 21 million with a 12 million 3rd year club option with a 1 million dollar buy out. That is a reasonable deal.
You underestimate the market for starting pitching. A starter who can go 180 plus IP and gives 4.00 ERA if not slightly better is worth around $12-14 million a year, maybe cheaper depending on age and how late it is into the offseason. Agreed its a small sample but it was also a contract year and he’s not gonna take a lower offer just because it was his one good year. No other team should be giving him that type of money this offseason with that QO attached but if he didn’t have that, the proposed deal would be about market value.
Also, at that point, why would he take a two year deal worth $22 million(thats counting the buyout) when he could just accept the QO and and get $15 million for one year and hope he has another good year and get paid even more?
Because players prefer signing contracts that guarantee them as much money as possible to hoping things work out. And if things worked out and he had another strong year what would you want him to do, sign another one year deal like you’re having him do this offseason? You have to be very mediocre or very old or very down to be going year to year.
The point I was trying to get at was that the guys proposed offer of 2/22 would be low considering the QO is $6 million less. I understand security but if that was the best offer he was getting he would take the QO because it would give him the best chance of maximizing his earning potential. If he had another great year then he could easily go back into the market and find another contract worth at least $10 million annually (not necessarily a one year deal) which would already give him more money in two years. He could also have a bad year, but the past few offseasons have shown teams are willing to dish out $5 million plus on a one year deal for an innings eater.
….because as they say in horseracing, “money don’t go lame”
A guy who’s K rate has dropped every year for the last 3 years and who had an absurd .217 BABIP last year is not worth more than $10M a year, 180 IP or not. Chris Young would be a better sign than him, as he’s cheaper and less risk.
What do you hope is wrong exactly? It says 2 years $24m-$29m. The lower end of that range pretty much aligns with what you are looking for. They are making an offer quite as low as you want because if they did he would just take the qualifying offer. And they don’t want to pay such a huge amount this year, they prefer to push higher salaries into the future (see Russell Martin’s contract.)
I don’t understand the urgency Nothing preventing Estrada from signing with the Jays if he turns down the QO
Sure there is: free agency will have begun at that point and since they are one of the most pushing hungry teams they may sign multiple starters in the first day or two. Which would indeed prevent him from resigning with them.
Estrada loses all his leverage if he doesn’t have a qualifying offer to fall back on.
The QO and the deep pitching class will significantly hurt his market. Taking the QO would be the smart thing to do if they don’t reach a multiyear deal.
Unsustainable BABIP = MLB leading h/9 = low ERA but with 4.40 FIP = guy a smart team would stay away from. Good luck with that, Jays.
Hasn’t Estrada’s BABIP been better than league average his whole career? That’s the definition of sustainable.
babip shouldnt be a major factor since he was near the top in pop ups and weak contact last year. Of course his babip is going to be low when he gives up a lot of weak contact.
So far we have Rasmus, Estrada, and Park (assuming he signs) as freebies
shhh dont remind people 😉
I loved the work Estrada has put into mastering his change-up and believe this is the key pitch to his success but how do the Jays fill out the rest of the rotation…If this signing happens the Jays have Stroman, Estrada and Dickey as the potential 1,2,3.
Internal Options:
Sanchez
Osuna
Hutchison
Hendricks
Free Agents (realistically as I don’t see Price or Grienke in TO):
Lackey
Kazmir
Leake
Gallardo
Samardzija
Lohse
Latos
I personally would rather see the 30+ that could be used on Price or Grienke be used on 2 high quality pitchers and keep Sanchez and Osuna in the pen for the near future as I think moving them to the rotation would cause to big of a hole.
I personally like Gallardo (which is unlikely) and Lackey but I am excited to see what comes true for the Jays rotation and Pen.
I would prefer them to move Sanchez to the rotation and sign both a starter (Leake/Kazmir) and one or two experienced relievers.(Soria or even Madson, Thatcher, Bastartdo, Qualls etc.). This can be done for the 30MM you mentioned.
2 years @ 26 mil is a pretty fair deal for both sides. I’m hoping the deal also carries an option for a 3rd year.
As for the rotation, as much as this is a window year for the Jays, they should consider Sanchez or Hutch in the rotation, and sign another starter for similar money to what they gave to Estrada, with the same amount of term. Lackey and Kazmir probably line up from your list.
I’d like to see Lowe come back to the pen, as well as another reliever with closing experience.
I agree with Lackey or even Kazmir on a 2 to 4 year deals including options. I think Hutch might be better suited.
I think the more pressing issue is LHP if Loup doesn’t bounce back and Cecil regresses because of his injury as the options are there for the rotation IMO.
In a dream world the Jays get someone like O’Day (which will never happen, RHP) but Lowe (RHP) would be a great signing as would Bastardo (LHP) or Clippard (RHP).
There are just some players that perform in the clutch and I believe Estrada is that guy, yes he is due for some regression but is comfortable in Toronto and they have a lineup that will protect him.
Good resigning for Toronto, when you have players who fit in and perform you keep them around. It’s a loyalty and chemistry thing that many do not focus enough on. It makes players want to come play.
Smart move. Estrada would have a tough time on the open market with so many other options on top of draft pick compensation and the Jays need to stabilize their rotation.
It’s also worth noting that the QO of 15.8 million would set his family up for life and it appears that that’s a big priority for him.
Looks like the qualifying offer worked in the jay favor
I’m guessing 2 years with an option. Toronto is an obvious choice for him, all things equal, because he had a lot of success here. That’s not a given if he changes teams.
Steve Trachsel v2.0. Not happy about this deal. I think its money thrown away on a guy who will be nothing more than a #5 starter. 2015 was a career year for this guy. I knew some sucker of a team would overpay for him, sad to see it was the Blue Jays.
You shouldn’t be upset, here, read this: http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/marco-estrada-isnt-just-a-one-year-fluke/
Yankees 2016 Roster:
Rotation:
Masahiro Tanaka
Wei-Yin Chen
Luis Severino
Nathan Eovaldi
Taijuan Walker
Bullpen
CC Sabathia
Justin Wilson
Adam Warren
James Pazos
Seung-Hwan Oh
Dellin Betances
Andrew Miller
Catchers
Brian McCann
Gary Sanchez
Infielders
Mark Teixeira
Jurickson Profar
Didi Gregorius
Brendan Ryan
Chase Headley
Mark Teixeira
Outfielders
Jacoby Ellsbury
Aaron Judge
Carlos Beltran
Aaron Hicks
Designated Hitter
Alex Rodriguez
Cool.
What does that have to do with Estrada though?
Though some of the numbers don’t show that he’s more then a #4-5 starter, he should only be able to improve from here after having a great learning year with his command and mixing up his pitches. If he can keep the ball down, fool hitters with the fastball-change combo and keep it in the park – even 1 out of the 2 years he does well in this contract can be helpful. Now the Jays can focus no adding 1 more starter or being happy with Hutch. in the final spot. Hoping Sanchez gets a chance again and stays in it. Stroman-Dickey-Estrada-Hutch-Sanchez works for me. But if they really feel the need, go get that other starter and keep Sanchez in the bullpen. Either way – let’s go Jays!
Thank you LaCava!
Forgoing the QO to take a two year deal? Have to think he may have been better off taking the QO and then seeing if they offered it again next season. Not a huge risk either way but he probably could’ve had a few million more if he had played it that way.
Good sign I think – was hoping for three years, but I will take it.
I expect some regression, but he will still be solid. He has never really been given a starters role and told to just go for it. The three season where he was pretty consistently been a starter, where he had more than 20 starts, his numbers have been pretty good from an ERA stand point, 3.64, 3.87 and 3.13. One of those guys who are better as a starter than out of the bullpen I think.