By Tim Dierkes | at
Looks like Mike Mussina has agreed to a 2-year, $22.5 million contract with the Yankees. No big surprise here: there was never much talk that he could’ve been going elsewhere. That gives the Yankees a projected rotation of Chien-Ming Wang, Randy Johnson, Mussina, and some combination of free agents (Gil Meche? a White Sox starter via trade?) and Carl Pavano, Humberto Sanchez, Darrell Rasner, and Jeff Karstens. And, of course, the possibility of Philip Hughes.
By Jeff Sackmann
By Tim Dierkes | at
The Baltimore Sun reports that the Orioles will acquire Jaret Wright for Chris Britton, pending commissioner approval.
Wright, who turns 31 soon, could benefit from a reunion with pitching coach Leo Mazzone. Still, the over/under on his innings pitched is 150. Wright is hard-pressed to make 30 starts or go past five innings in any of those. I would call 2007 a success for him if he posts an ERA below 5. I have my doubts on that.
Besides Wright not being very good, another reason I dislike the deal for Baltimore is that they already have a staff of guys who don’t go deep into games. Erik Bedard, Adam Loewen, and Daniel Cabrera average less than six innings per start, while Kris Benson and Rodrigo Lopez a touch over six. The Orioles needed a Jason Jennings, a Freddy Garcia, a Jon Garland in my opinion. Guys who go seven innings more often than not.
Basically the Orioles managed to both increase their already heavy reliance on a lousy bullpen while subtracting one of their better relievers.
Britton, who turns 24 soon, is a big guy who throws strikes. He has a couple of decent pitches and can be a useful bullpen piece for New York. The deal is a clear win for the Yankees. Getting Wright out of the rotation is a plus, and adding a warm body to the bullpen is just gravy.
By Tim Dierkes | at
According to Jeff Zrebiec of the Baltimore Sun, the Orioles have talked to the Yankees about acquiring 31 year-old righthander Jaret Wright.
First the Yankees have to choose whether to buy Wright out for $4MM or pay him $7MM for the 2007 season. If they don’t buy him out and do trade him to the Orioles, Wright could be reunited with former Braves pitching coach Leo Mazzone. Wright had his only full season success under Mazzone in 2004.
Otherwise perhaps the Orioles would just sign Wright to a free agent contract.
By Tim Dierkes | at
Peter Abraham, Yankees beat writer for The Journal News, is telling us all to relax a little bit in his blog. He later checked in again after talking to Brian Cashman and says the Yankees haven’t heard anything about Matsuzaka yet. Other interesting bits from Abraham’s fine blog:
– I quote: "The Japanese papers literally have people standing outside of the team offices waiting to get the news [on Matsuzaka]."
– Andy Pettitte’s wife doesn’t seem to like the idea of a return to the Yanks.
– Carl Pavano and Luke Scott carry guns.
–
By Tim Dierkes | at
Jon Heyman reports that the Tigers have acquired Gary Sheffield for Humberto Sanchez and two Class A pitchers, Kevin Whelan and Anthony Claggett.
It’s a superb deal for New York at first glance, as Sanchez has great stuff and profiles as at least a middle-rotation starter for years to come. Baseball Prospectus’s Kevin Goldstein ranked Sanchez as the 11th best right-handed starting prospect in the game, holding him back only because of elbow concerns. The Yankees should have young guys comprising 60% of their rotation by the end of ’07.
And Whelan, if things break right, could be setting up Mariano Rivera by 2008. The 23 year-old throws four different fastballs.
That’s a lot to give up for Sheff, but credit the Tigers for making a win-now move for the patient slugger they needed. According to Heyman, "the Tigers will extend Sheffield’s contract for two years beyond the one year and $13 million remaining."
By Tim Dierkes | at
It appears that both the Mets and Yankees were scouting 27 year-old lefty Kei Igawa Tuesday night against the MLB All-Stars. He’ll be an option for teams looking overseas for pitching that are reluctant to break the bank. However, David Wright was not impressed:
"Asked if Igawa’s pitches were major-league quality, Wright hedged a bit.
’I just don’t know,’ Wright said. ’I’d have to see him when he’s in midseason form. You send a guy up there after a month layoff and you can’t get a handle on a guy. But as far as a lefty goes, he has a sneaky fastball. I thought he threw, for a lefty, an average to above-average fastball, an above-average changeup, and his slider was a little flat. But with a month off, who knows? Could be any number of reasons.’
By Tim Dierkes | at
If the Yankees don’t win the Daisuke Matsuzaka sweepstakes, which pitcher becomes the top target? According to ESPN’s Buster Olney, it will be 34 year-old free agent Jason Schmidt. Said Olney in his blog:
"I’ve heard the Yankees’ Plan B, if they don’t get Matsuzaka, will be the pursuit of Jason Schmidt. Talked to his agent the other day, and he said that any perception that Schmidt is devoted to the idea of playing close to his home in Washington is ’completely inaccurate’ and that he hasn’t ruled out any team, in any time zone."
Schmidt brings more risk than Barry Zito in the long term, but projects to be worth about 4.8 wins next year according to Baseball Prospectus. BP sees Zito as a 4.2 win player in ’07. While we’re at it, here are some other projected WARPs for free agent starters:
Clemens – 4.9
Glavine – 2.3
Padilla – 2.7
Mussina – 3.4
Maddux – 3.4
Pettitte – 4.9
Meche – 1.5
Lilly – 2.1
Weaver – 3.5
Suppan – 2.9
Williams – 2.1
Eaton – 2.3
Wolf – 2.6
Mulder – 3.6
Batista – 0.9
By Tim Dierkes | at
Yankee fans have been emailing me for a 2007 Team Outlook. There’s not a lot for me to figure out here because the Yanks don’t have many openings. But here we go.
Brian Cashman’s contract obligations:
C – Jorge Posada – $12MM
C –
1B – Gary Sheffield – $8MM ($5MM deferred)
2B – Robinson Cano – $0.381MM
SS – Derek Jeter – $20MM
3B – Alex Rodriguez – $16MM
IF – Andy Phillips – $0.38MM
IF –
LF – Hideki Matsui – $13MM
CF – Johnny Damon – $13MM
RF – Bobby Abreu – $15MM
OF – Melky Cabrera – $0.38MM
DH – Jason Giambi – $21MM
SP –
SP – Randy Johnson – $14.5MM
SP – Chien-Ming Wang – $0.38MM
SP – Jaret Wright – $7MM (player option)
SP – Philip Hughes – $0.38MM
SP – Carl Pavano – $10MM
RP – Mariano Rivera – $10.5MM
RP – Kyle Farnsworth – $5.25MM
RP – Mike Myers – $1.25MM
RP – Scott Proctor – $0.38MM
RP – Brian Bruney – $0.38MM
RP –
Buyouts:
SP – Mike Mussina – $1.5MM
Payroll stands at roughly $176MM. The Yankees entered ’06 at $194MM.
2007 could be Posada’s last season as a Yankee. Or not. He had a resurgence at age 34, hitting .278/.375/.494 and playing 142 games. If Cashman were to let Posada walk perhaps Michael Barrett would be signed. Anyway, the Yanks will need to find a backup this winter, maybe someone like Todd Pratt or Henry Blanco.
We all know Sheff doesn’t want to play first base in 2007 unless he gets a three-year extension. Will this play out like Alfonso Soriano’s position change last year? Any threat to retire may ring hollow as Sheffield needs just 45 HRs for 500. The trade market for Sheffield seems strong despite his whining, as possible .900 OPS outfielders on one-year deals don’t grow on trees. The Cubs should offer Bob Howry and/or Scott Eyre and a decent prospect and try to get something done. If they do trade Sheffield, the Yankees can try some patchwork solutions at first base, as their offense can stand it.
We’ve also got a possible situation with A-Rod. Scott Boras is adamant that Rodriguez will not be traded, and of course the player has veto power here. Given Boras’s profession and reputation, everyone is taking that assertion with a grain of salt. If Rodriguez is dealt, I really don’t see him moving back to shortstop. The White Sox seem like the best fit, as they can offer Joe Crede and a starter. That starter won’t be an ex-Yankee, which leaves only Mark Buehrle or Freddy Garcia.
Miguel Cairo or someone similar will be signed to back up Jeter and Cano.
The Yanks have an outfield surplus, with promising 22 year-old Melky Cabrera serving as the fourth. He had a strong rookie showing in ’06; it’s a shame he won’t be playing full-time in ’07. Cashman could use Cabrera to acquire a starter, but why not just hang onto him for right field in ’08? The retention of Hughes this summer may indicate a willingness to break in some young guys.
It seems likely that Mussina will work something out with Cashman after his option is bought out. That’ll leave the rotation with three or four solid options, but perhaps not a shut-down ace. If Cashman’s scouts think Daisuke Matsuzaka is that ace, I can’t see how he lands anywhere else. Yes, they were burned by Hideki Irabu – but these are two completely different pitchers.
20 year-old Philip Hughes posted sick numbers in Double A and will probably be up before June. He may be the best pitching prospect in the game – this time, the New York hype is justified.
Someone’s going to have to replace Ron Villone’s 80 innings in the bullpen. Could be Darren Oliver or even another go-round with Mike Stanton. I’m pretty sure one overpaid veteran reliever will be imported.
Plenty of offseason drama as usual with the Yankees. Best guess is that Sheffield goes and A-Rod stays. Sheff is used to acquire a good reliever. Mussina comes back and the Yankees win the Matsuzaka derby. With Matsuzaka and Hughes fronting the rotation this summer, the Yankees could be World Series favorites.
By Tim Dierkes | at
The Cardinals have been crowned the unlikely world champs, so now it’s time for all baseball fans to offically focus on 2007. Here’s a roundup of the latest rumors.
With the Tigers’ season over, the consensus among local papers seems to be that they will trade some of their excess starting pitching for a slugger, possibly a first baseman. Some folks think Jeremy Bonderman’s postseason performance (3.10 ERA in 20 innings) was a sign that he will take it to the next level in ’07. Others think it’s time to trade him with his value so high. Possible trade targets: Mark Teixeira, Todd Helton, Richie Sexson, Adam Dunn, Manny Ramirez, and Pat Burrell. It’s certainly feasible that Brandon Inge, Nate Robertson, or Craig Monroe could be included in a trade.
We’ll know by November 11th whether Aramis Ramirez will become a free agent. Right now, he’s not close to a deal with the Cubs. While Ramirez’s current deal is often cited as two years and $22.5MM, the third year is pretty easily guaranteed at $11MM. He just needs to play 270 games over the first two seasons. We hear a lot about the Dodgers and Angels as Ramirez’s suitors. The Dodgers would force top prospect Andy LaRoche to move from third base if they sign Ramirez. Other teams that could have interest: the Orioles, Red Sox, Tigers, Rangers, Giants, and Padres.
The Sheffield Saga continues, with the Astros and Indians entering the mix. A one-year rental from the Tribe would be a great fit in my mind.
By Tim Dierkes | at
We had heard a lot of $20MMish estimates for the winning bid to negotiate with Japanese ace Daisuke Matsuzaka.
However, Joel Sherman’s article yesterday quotes an NL GM who sets the over-under at $33MM. Bob Bavasi mentioned $28MM as the highest figure he had heard when I talked to him earlier this month. With more than ten teams looking to make competitive bids, $30MM+ is becoming more of a reality.
Sherman speculates that Scott Boras could ask for five years and $75MM on top of that posting fee. Now we’re talking a total of $21MM a season for the guy.
The more you think about it, 5/75 is not an unreasonable amount for Boras to demand. Boras has shown in the past with top draft picks that he is able to gain leverage in a situation where his client seemingly has none. Why shouldn’t Matsuzaka be paid like Roy Oswalt? Matsuzaka is a full three years younger.
These kinds of demands are typically only met by the Yankees. In A-Rod, Jeter, and Giambi, the Yanks have three $20MM players for 2007. Randy Johnson gets $16MM and Bobby Abreu $15MM.
My money is officially placed on the Yankees getting Matsuzaka. Other teams just won’t mess with that kind of payout and risk.
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