Rosenthal’s Latest: Lohse, Hunter, Contreras
The latest trade and signing rumors from Ken Rosenthal:
- Rosenthal believes Alex Rodriguez‘s ability to play shortstop could increase the number of suitors. Take a look at the free agents – there may not be a single viable option at short this winter. Still, the number of suitors for Rodriguez is severely limited by his massive contract requirement. Not too many clubs aside from the Yankees and Red Sox can get in on $240MM over eight years or whatever. The lack of available, reasonably priced shortstops could compel the Braves and Orioles to aggressively shop Edgar Renteria and Miguel Tejada.
- As a 29 year-old free agent starter with decent stuff, Scott Boras could sell Kyle Lohse as the next Gil Meche this winter. Meche’s work in the season’s first three months would only aid the wishcasting. I put up a little Lohse history here, writing that his deal will likely fall somewhere between Jason Marquis and Meche. Other free agent starters who will be under 30 for the 2008 season: Carlos Zambrano, Jason Jennings, Joe Kennedy, and Byung-Hyun Kim.
- Rosenthal believes the Rangers will bid on Torii Hunter this winter unless they acquire a proven center fielder this summer. He mentions that Jon Daniels set his sights on Shane Victorino but the Phils would rather trade Michael Bourn. Unless the Rangers get a proven guy they will still go after Hunter.
- The Mariners scouted Jose Contreras and Matt Morris recently, but both were lousy. I still think Jennings could sneak in there as the best available starter, but he too hasn’t pitched well in July. Definitely seems like the Mariners will snag some kind of starter.
- Rosenthal disputes Evan Grant’s report of the Brewers and Indians showing interest in Kenny Lofton. The Brewers are getting Bill Hall back soon and the Indians have some outfielders on the road to recovery as well. Perfect, this frees him up for the Cubs!
- Rosenthal mentions the same teams I did for Kevin Millar, but sees an August deal as a possibility. Waiting until August doesn’t seem to make sense for the Orioles, as things get trickier then.
- The Padres could trade Scott Linebrink in order to make payroll room for a starter. Or they could just sign Brian Lawrence. I discussed some other options for the Friars here.
Rosenthal’s Latest Video: A-Rod, Willis
There’s a new video up with Ken Rosenthal contributing. Let’s see what the man had to say this time:
- According to Rosenthal, Alex Rodriguez will opt out, and he will get $30MM a year. The coverage of this story is just beginning, unfortunately.
- The Marlins have been telling teams they won’t move Dontrelle Willis; they think they’re still in contention. The Fish are 7.5 out in the NL East and 8 out for the Wild Card. The simulations I’ve seen give the Marlins a 1-3% chance at making the playoffs. Would Willis command a stronger package of prospects if dealt now or during the offseason? Dave George thinks his stock will continue to fall, and he needs a change of scenery (Willis heard boos at home for maybe the first time last night). However, Rosenthal’s contention is supported by Juan C. Rodriguez – apparently, only one scout was at Willis’s start last night (a Royals guy who lives in Florida anyway).
Rosenthal’s Latest: Santana, Glaus
Ken Rosenthal has a new column up, dealing more in speculation that actual rumors. Nothing wrong with that.
- Rosenthal as well as Barry Bonds‘s agent believe the Giants will retain him for the 2008 season. However, Brian Sabean could begin to rebuild nonetheless. The patchwork aging veteran approach of 2007 need not be repeated.
- It would be interesting to see what Terry Ryan could get if he made an uncharacteristically bold move by trading Johan Santana this summer. He would be able to get one or two of the very best young players in the game. Keep in mind, though, that Santana has a full no-trade clause this year. He gets the same for ’08 with a top three Cy Young finish this year. Santana wants to stay in Minnesota, and would offer a hometown discount.
- Rosenthal speculates that if J.P. Ricciardi would deal within the division, maybe the Yankees could get Troy Glaus as A-Rod insurance. Glaus could play first base for the remainder of this season. Ricciardi isn’t shopping Glaus though; he said he’d need to be knocked over to break up the core lineup. That would mean one of the Yankees’ much-hyped pitching prospects (not Hughes, but something good).
Teixeira Trade Talk Continues
A host of clubs are currently in on Texas first baseman Mark Teixeira, according to Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News.
We’ve heard the most about the Dodgers and Angels competing to acquire him. However, as Buster Olney notes, both clubs have promising young cheap first basemen. Though Teixeira has the track record, is he significantly better than James Loney or Casey Kotchman? Grant says the Dodgers have been scouting the Rangers and could go for one of their relievers as well. Meanwhile, the Rangers are scouting the Angels.
Grant says additional contenders like Teixeira: the Braves, Red Sox, and Yankees. Kevin Youkilis has been Boston’s first baseman this year. However, they could shift him back to third base and trade impending free agent Mike Lowell for something useful. The Braves and Yankees definitely have room at first base for Tex.
In the Braves’ case, though, there would truly be nowhere for Jarrod Saltalamacchia to play if he wasn’t included in the deal. The Braves are in an odd place, with two excellent young starting catchers on the roster. Atlanta’s strongest need right now is starting pitching, however. The Baseball Opinion connects the dots and finds a Javier Vazquez acquisition possible.
Grant believes noncontenders such as the Orioles and Giants could be interested in Teixeira as well. The Giants could use some star power if they cut ties with Barry Bonds after the season. Brian Sabean now has the job security to think about the post-Bonds Giants. The Orioles would be bringing in their hometown boy and could make a corresponding trade of Miguel Tejada.
Yanks Done With A-Rod If He Opts Out
It’s not exactly a shock that the Yankees would not strike a contract extension with Alex Rodriguez if he chooses to opt out of his contract. The worst possible scenario for the Yankees is to abandon the $29MM the Rangers owe him and participate in open bidding for the superstar.
On the plus side, there’s no real downside for Rodriguez if he hammers something out to allow the Yankees to keep the Rangers’ money. Scott Boras has his price and if the Yankees won’t meet it, Rodriguez will leave. It still seems like something gets done before Rodriguez’s November 10th opt-out deadline. Knowing Boras, it will probably be completed on that day. But not before thousands of words are wasted breaking down every freakin’ quote.
Meanwhile, Jorge Posada wants to experience free agency. Neither he nor Mariano Rivera have had contract talks with the Yankees. Buster Olney adds that the Yankees will wrap up deals with Rivera and Posada before dealing with Rodriguez. I can see the Cubs making an offer to Posada this winter.
A’s May Trade Piazza Instead of Johnson
If Mike Piazza can’t catch – and it looks like he can’t – the A’s pretty much have to unload Piazza or Dan Johnson once the former is ready to play.
Susan Slusser notes that possibly interested teams, such as the Twins, Yankees, and Angels, may prefer to go after Piazza. The cost would mainly be in salary, whereas the cheap and league average Johnson will require a decent player in return. So the question for Billy Beane is which does he want more? Relief from the remaining $3.88MM on Piazza’s contract or a solid prospect and an open spot for Daric Barton?
The A’s are not usually sellers at the trading deadline, so we don’t have much precedent. I like a Johnson move a little bit more.
Yankees Will Negotiate In-Season With A-Rod
Many commenters here at MLBTradeRumors have proclaimed that there is no way the Yankees let Alex Rodriguez leave after this season. They are still a powerhouse team, and they can afford any player.
Those commenters have been validated by Buster Olney’s recent story at ESPN.com. Buster says the Yankees will bend their rules to talk extension with A-Rod before the season ends. The Yanks would want to add on to Rodriguez’s current contract, so he’d have to agree not to opt out. That way Texas will continue footing a portion of the bill.
Would an additional four years (2011-2014) for $120MM do the trick? That would take him through his age 38 season, at which point he would still be probably a season or two short of Bonds’ home run record. But locking him in through 2016 would be akin to a nine-year extension.
Former Dodgers GM Fred Claire believes the Yankees will only stop Rodriguez from exercising his out clause if they offer him something massive, like ten years and $300MM.
Twins, Yankees Like Dan Johnson
There’s a lot of buzz going around that the A’s may become sellers soon, nine games back in their division and eight out in the Wild Card. Typical impending free agent parts like Mike Piazza and Shannon Stewart are candidates to be moved.
Another player Billy Beane could trade is first baseman Dan Johnson. Johnson is nowhere near free agency, but top prospect Daric Barton is knocking on the door. Having Johnson under contract through 2011 (if my math is correct) would make him especially valuable to a cost-conscious team like the Twins. Makes a lot more sense than Ty Wigginton.
Charley Walters of the St. Paul Pioneer Press says the A’s are intent on trading Johnson, and speculates that he’d be a fine fit at DH. Buster Olney adds the Yankees and Red Sox to the mix. However, I think Buster may have accidentally misread the Walters article as far as the Boston part.
Johnson had an off year in 2006, but corrected double vision in the offseason and is hitting a solid .260/.369/.455 this year. Granted that’s just a hair above average for a 1B/DH, but it’s a lot better than what the Twins have been running out there. If Beane can pry away one of the Twins’ young pitchers – I keep bringing up Scott Baker – I imagine a deal can get done.
Odds and Ends
Some random links I’ve come across, best categorized as Odds and Ends.
- Tim Marchman of the New York Sun discusses why the Yankees can’t practically pull off any kind of fire sale. Bobby Abreu is the one big name they can move, though Andy Pettitte is worthy of consideration. Marchman likes the Angels, Diamondbacks, and Dodgers as fits for Abreu.
- Shea Hillenbrand was waived today; insert "ship is sinking" reference here. I guess Bill Stoneman couldn’t find a taker for Hillenbrand even while eating most of his remaining salary. Now the Angels will foot the bill while some team picks up the opinionated DH for the league minimum. The Twins are often cited as a team in need of a DH, but Hillenbrand might disrupt the clubhouse chemistry. And of course, the Yankees have been connected to him since this winter.
- RotoAuthority lays out a plan for starting your own keeper fantasy baseball league.
- Torii Hunter would consider playing for the White Sox, for what it’s worth. It’d take a franchise-record contract to sign him.
- Indians reliever Fernando Cabrera is a fine candidate to be traded to a rebuilding team. The Tribe can’t option him to the minors without losing him, but his performance isn’t helping the team and he’s taking up a roster spot. As a 25 year-old with a K/9 over 10 in 129 career innings, there should be plenty of interest. Swapping him for a seasoned reliever like Octavio Dotel, Eric Gagne, or Al Reyes makes sense to me. By the way, the Indians’ Rafael Betancourt is quietly one of the five best relievers in baseball this year.
Yankees To Offer Up Abreu?
Bob Klapisch of the Bergen Record talked to one Major League executive who believes the Yankees are likely to shop outfielder Bobby Abreu to the NL this month. The key would be the Yankees paying a portion of the $10MM coming to Abreu this year.
Abreu still has a $16MM option for 2008 with a $2MM buyout attached. If he has a few more months like June – .290/.408/.470 – the option could still be picked up. The Yanks could exercise it and then look to trade him during the offseason. The cost certainty and one-year commitment might be attractive to some teams, even if Abreu is basically now Brian Giles. The Yankees are currently 12 games out in the AL East and 8.5 out in the Wild Card race. Nonetheless, their playoff chances fall in the 11-18% range based on the various simulations out there. It’s not quite time to fold it in and play for next year.
However, if the Yankees keep losing and are more officially out of it in three weeks, Abreu seems the most logical choice to be traded. Kyle Farnsworth is a no-brainer as well. Roger Clemens, Alex Rodriguez, Jorge Posada, and Mariano Rivera could all become free agents after the season, but I can’t see any of them getting traded.
Abreu would be a nice fit in Arizona as a summer rental, in my opinion.