Stark’s Latest: Tejada, Buehrle, Morris
Jayson Stark posted a new column for ESPN yesterday; let’s take a glance at the trade rumors therein.
- Miguel Tejada‘s out until August, so that obviously means he won’t be traded this season. Right? Wrong – Stark and an AL exec think $30MM or so due to Tejada for the remaining 2.3 seasons on his contract would allow him to pass through waivers. Miggy could be a hot topic for the August 31st trade deadline. You may recall that last August Andruw Jones was placed on waivers, claimed, and pulled back. Andruw called the affair "rude." Here is a refresher on the waiver trade rules, in case you want to get a head start.
- Steve Trachsel is the Oriole Stark expects to be traded at the July deadline. They should move fast, as Trachsel’s stock is plummetting as expected.
- Stark says Kenny Williams was asking for a ton for Mark Buehrle before extension talks picked up: two of each team’s best three prospects. Makes sense; ask for that, and then settle for one Grade A prospect if you can get it. Should Buehrle end up back on the trading block, the White Sox may have to break down and grant that 72 hour negotiating window for an extension. Stark’s source makes a great point – if Buehrle signs with the Cardinals this offseason, the draft picks going to the team he departs will be the 38th pick and a second-rounder. Not that thrilling. But still, the smart money is on a contract extension with the White Sox for Buehrle.
- Matt Morris is officially on the market, as he should be. He’s over his head with a 3.39 ERA, but remains a solid, veteran innings eater with over 70 innings of playoff experience. Morris will make another $5MM this year, $9.5MM in ’08, and $2MM signing bonus due at the end of his contract. He’s also got a $9MM club option for ’09 with a $1MM buyout attached. Giants GM Brian Sabean has always been a buyer at the trade deadline, acquiring players like Jason Schmidt, Kenny Lofton, Sidney Ponson, and Randy Winn. Getting a decent prospect for Morris will be a new situation for Sabean.
Rosenthal’s Latest
Ken Rosenthal has a new column up. A summary appears below.
- Rosenthal thinks the Tigers are unlikely to acquire Eric Gagne or Akinori Otsuka, perhaps preferring to look at internal options. That’s a shame, as I think they really need to add someone.
- The White Sox won’t be granting a 72 hour negotiating window if they trade Mark Buehrle. Strictly a rental. That could limit the market for him, but Kenny Williams will come up with at least one quality prospect.
- The Dodgers don’t seem likely to trade for Adam Dunn or Jermaine Dye, but could go after Mark Teixeira. Dye seems most likely to end up in the NL West somehow, but only if he is healthy and hitting.
- Possible Dontrelle Willis suitors: the Rockies or Diamondbacks. They’ve got the young trading chips, and the need in the present day. The Rox could offer Aaron Cook plus prospects, and the D’Backs could try Livan Hernandez and youngsters. If the D’Backs dare offer up Justin Upton, the Marlins would jump. Of course, D-Train needs to be healthy and the Marlins would need to fall out of contention.
- Barry Bonds‘s agent really doesn’t see a trade happening. Well, no one does, but it’s fun to speculate. Rosenthal thinks only the Yankees could accomodate him.
- Aside from the Pirates and Padres, the Astros, Cardinals, and Rangers could go after Milton Bradley.
- Rosenthal has a GM source who thinks the Reds could wait until this winter, exercise Adam Dunn’s $13MM option for ’08, and then trade him. Dunn, however, would gain no-trade protection until June 15, 2008 and then be able to block 10 teams thereafter.
- Troy Glaus isn’t going anywhere. Even if the Jays wanted to trade him, his contract is prohibitive.
- The Indians or Rockies could trade for Octavio Dotel for bullpen depth. Dotel is developing into a fine trading chip for Dayton Moore, just as planned. The Tribe has had interest in Dotel in past offseasons.
Stark’s Latest
ESPN’s Jayson Stark has his latest Rumblings and Grumblings column up, and it’s chock full o’ rumors.
- Stark speaks to one NL exec who thinks any Barry Bonds trade rumor is hogwash. That source believes that there would be no market for him. Personally, I don’t buy it. There would only be $8MM or so left on the deal, and as a two-month DH Bonds could make a huge impact on a contender. And he did indicate he’d waive his no-trade clause.
- Word is that the Mets wouldn’t trade Lastings Milledge for an impending free agent – Mark Buehrle included. Milledge could go in a Dontrelle Willis deal though.
- The Braves are seen as a more likely suitor for Buehrle, once he’s truly made available in a week or two. Atlanta won’t settle for a Mike Maroth type. What would the Braves give up for Buehrle? Kenny Williams should pry away Jarrod Saltalamacchia if he can. Otherwise a package involving Brent Lillibridge or Brandon Jones would make sense.
- Meanwhile, the market on Jermaine Dye seems tepid. It would help if he was healthy and hitting. Ah, alliteration.
- Stark debunks the popular Ken Griffey Jr. to Atlanta rumor. He says the Braves aren’t looking for big contract commitments and are more focused on pitching than offense. Rightfully so.
- The Yankees have added Scott Hatteberg to their list of first base targets. As if they needed more OBP.
Healey’s Latest
Mark Healey at Gotham Baseball has long been a solid, underappreciated source of inside information. He’s got another Rumor Mill up at his site. My summary follows.
- The Yankees have an eye on big-name 1Bs like Mark Teixeira and Todd Helton. But more realistically, they’re looking at Tampa Bay’s Carlos Pena. He’s got the defense, so even if he regresses to a 20 HR bat it’s a nice pickup. Healey’s source believes Tyler Clippard is too much but the Rays like Sean Henn. The Yanks have also inquired about the versatile Ty Wigginton.
- The Reds, Rockies, and others have been scouting the Yankees’ Double A Trenton affiliate. Joba Chamberlain, Ian Kennedy, and Brett Gardner are probably the most desirable players on that roster. Gotham Baseball has previously connected the Yankees to Brian Fuentes and David Weathers. Another reliever the Yankees like is Chad Bradford, though the O’s price may be too high.
- Gotham quotes an NL scout who doesn’t believe the Mets will acquire a starter by trading Lastings Milledge, Carlos Gomez, or Fernando Martinez. That scout believes the return of Pedro will supply the needed boost. Personally, I can see Milledge going.
- Some former Mets on the radar: Brady Clark, Jay Payton, and David Weathers.
- Healey says the Mets sent scouts to look at Randy Winn this weekend. They must not be pleased with Moises Alou‘s progress. As I mentioned earlier, Winn is signed through 2009. He has a full no-trade clause this year. For 2008-09 he can block deals to ten teams.
- The Pirates have some vets to trade, and have contacted the Mets regarding Shawn Chacon and Damaso Marte. Marte is quietly having a fine season with a 1.21 ERA and 1.03 WHIP. Marte earns $2.45MM this year, and $2MM in ’08 with an odd $6MM club option for 2009. He can also earn incentives based on games finished.
Could Bonds Be Dealt In A Giants Firesale?
Andrew Baggarly of the San Jose Mercury News spoke extensively with both Giants GM Brian Sabean and Barry Bonds, and some interesting information emerged.
First off, Bonds’ comments seem to indicate he’d waive his no-trade clause if a need arose. Let’s say he hits #756 July 18th against Rich Hill. That would work out nicely for the Giants, as the interest in Bonds as a sideshow would wane after he broke the record. Sabean could ditch the $8MM or so remaining on his 2007 contract and the Giants could finally move on. Bonds might be a nice fit for the Mariners for a couple of months. The Twins would benefit even more, but that scenario seems highly unlikely. The Angels or A’s could definitely make a push and find some room for Bonds.
Baggarly’s article also has Brian Sabean acknowledging that the Giants may have to go into sell mode. Baggarly names Ray Durham, Omar Vizquel, Rich Aurilia, Matt Morris, Pedro Feliz, and Steve Kline as veterans who could be sent packing. Might as well throw in Ryan Klesko, Randy Winn, and Dave Roberts. If you’re going to have a firesale, don’t hold back.
The Red Sox could snag Winn or Roberts as a stopgap in center field, but both are signed through 2009. Not the easiest contracts to move. Matt Morris could net a nice return. With a 3.21 ERA, has has to be at the peak of his value. He earns $9.5MM this year, $9.5MM in ’08, and has a club option for $9MM with a $1MM buyout attached for ’09. The Mariners, Phillies, Braves, and Astros could be possibilities.
Rosenthal’s Latest
The authority on all trade rumors, Ken Rosenthal has spoken. Let’s review.
- As we have heard before, the Dodgers like Adam Dunn. We’ve also discussed the fact that there’s not a clear place to put him. Whether you go with first base or left field, a veteran must move. The Padres like Dunn as well but talks have yet to occur. The Angels may have liked him in the past but they don’t seem likely at this point. And the Twins? They just won’t break the bank for him unfortunately.
- With Michael Barrett having issues with 40% of the Cubs’ rotation, the Cubs could look to trade him. Even though he’s a top offensive catcher, his impending free agency might prevent any strong return. Plus, the Cubs would have to go with a Henry Blanco/Koyie Hill tandem. A more likely scenario is that the Cubs will let Barrett walk after the season.
- Finally some clarity on Eric Gagne‘s limited no-trade protection. Rosenthal reveals that he can veto trades to 12 teams. The Phillies and Indians are again mentioned as suitors. Rosenthal thinks Mark Teixeira could generate a lot of talk but no action at the trading deadline. Kind of like Alfonso Soriano or A.J. Burnett before him.
- The asking price for Brad Lidge, supposedly: a premium young catcher and promising young pitcher. Lidge will probably earn $8MM next year before hitting free agency. The Astros should be happy with a young catcher or a young pitcher, not both. I’d mention Salty here but I think he is worth much more than Lidge. Rosenthal says the Astros could move another bullpen arm like Wheeler or Qualls to get the bat they need.
- Could the Devil Rays simply retain Al Reyes and Carlos Pena? Both players could be valuable contributors to the 2008 club. I like the idea of keeping Reyes around for next year, but I think Pena has peaked.
- Noah Lowry would get the attention of the Braves or Cardinals, but the Giants are unlikely to move him.
- The Phils are likely to pass on Tomo Ohka despite their need for pitching.
Abreu For Dye Swap Still Alive
Ken Rosenthal’s recent report indicated that the Jermaine Dye for Bobby Abreu talks had cooled over the last week or so. However, Joe Cowley of the Chicago Sun-Times indicated today that this deal "has started to take some life."
Read the article, and you’ll find some quotes from Dye that apparently have annoyed the White Sox. Personally I think his comments are just fine. Basically he says that he will play hard for any team, and that swapping him for another veteran won’t ignite the Sox. Who can disagree with that? Would Abreu really spark the Sox?
The last time the Sox made a challenge trade like this, if I recall correctly, was the Esteban Loaiza for Jose Contreras swap, also with the Yankees. That occurred at the 2004 trading deadline, and worked out quite well for the Sox.
I don’t like this trade for Chicago though. Despite his struggles, Dye is on a 30 homer pace. And the $16MM option on Abreu next year – that’s only appealing if he’s an All-Star for the White Sox. That’s hard to picture given what we’ve seen, but maybe Greg Walker has ideas on how to fix him.
It should also be noted that the Giants have been scouting the White Sox recently, and could look to acquire Dye or others.
Giants Interested In Melky Cabrera
According to Peter Gammons in his blog, the Giants are considering shopping a starting pitcher. Not only do they have Tim Lincecum debuting tomorrow, but Jonathan Sanchez was raised mostly as a starter and hasn’t worked out in the bullpen so far.
Gammons says the Giants would target a young position player, and they like Melky Cabrera of the Yankees. He does not think the Yankees would be interested in a Cabrera for Noah Lowry swap. If it was the Lowry of 2005, it would be a different story. But the southpaw seems to have lost his strikeout rate at age 26.
The Giants could also peddle Matt Morris, who’s 4-1 with a 3.20 ERA. This is probably the high point of Morris’s season, so shopping him makes sense. The Orioles are one of several teams in need of an innings eater.
Readin’ Material
If you’re looking for some fantasy pickups, check out my Waiver Wired column at RotoWorld.
The hot topic in fantasy and real baseball: Tim Lincecum vs. Cole Hamels on ESPN Sunday night. It will be hard to match the Felix Hernandez–Daisuke Matsuzaka contest, but baseball fans everywhere will be tuned in. Hop on over to RotoAuthority – the closest to guess Lincecum’s line wins a free fantasy guide.
Check out the recent MetsBlog Talk Radio transcript – Buster Olney discusses Rich Harden and Carlos Zambrano trade possibilities.
Couple of blogs to check out: We Love Daisuke! and Starting Aces (a Red Sox blog).
Clear A Path For Lincecum?
Tim Lincecum is doing everything he can to prove he’s ready for the Majors – he posted a 14K, zero walk effort yesterday. His stats are off the charts after five starts.
Whether or not there’s an open spot in the Giants’ rotation, it’s clear that Lincecum is one of their 12 best pitchers. He needs to be helping the big club right now, though I believe waiting until June to promote him could delay his free agency by a year.
The Giants’ rotation consists of Matt Cain, Barry Zito, Matt Morris, Noah Lowry, and Russ Ortiz. All have ERAs at 4.50 or below, so it’d be tough to replace one of them with Lincecum right now. Zito and Cain aren’t going anywhere, and Ortiz looks like a possible decent bargain as a fifth starter/innings eater.
The two trade candidates in my eyes are Lowry and Morris. Lowry, a 26 year-old southpaw, still hasn’t rediscovered his strikeout rate from ’05. He’s young enough to find it, but a sub-4 ERA isn’t in the cards unless he does. Morris, 32, has a 3.34 ERA in five starts and some say he’s returned to form. The numbers don’t lie, though – more walks than strikeouts, plenty of hits. He’s going to make $20MM over 2007-08. He’s the one to sell high if at all possible.
Even with Bonds in the lineup, the Giants can’t get on base to save their lives. Some players are just slumping, but there’s plenty of room for upgrade at first, third, and right field. Morris or Lowry might be able to bring in a decent bat to complement Bonds.
More likely, of course: the Giants just stand pat and wait to see if one of the starters really flounders or gets hurt. After another dominant start or two they could bring Lincecum up to get his feet wet in the pen, a la Francisco Liriano. But whatever the route, this kid needs to be starting for the Giants by June.