Cubs Rumors

Many Clubs Scouting Jonathan Papelbon

By Steve Adams | June 19, 2015 at 3:40pm CDT

There was a “heavy” scouting presence in attendance for Jonathan Papelbon’s most recent appearance, tweets Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports. Both the Blue Jays and Cubs are known to have interest in the closer, but Rosenthal now adds that additional clubs have inquired on the reliever.

Meanwhile, Jim Salisbury of CSNPhilly.com writes that the Jays have had a high-ranking scout trail Papelbon for his past 10 contests. He’s only had one save opportunity in that time, though he has pitched in non-save situations. Per Salisbury, determining how much money would need to head to the Blue Jays has been a “significant” hurdle in talks thus far.

Papelbon has pitched well all season and has continued to put up rather excellent results since experiencing a significant velocity drop beginning in 2013. Rosenthal notes that he averaged 94.1 mph in his most recent outing, but he only threw nine pitches, so it’s not necessarily an indicator that his velocity has returned for good. Indeed, a look at Papelbon’s game-to-game velocity charts (via Fangraphs) reveals that the most recent appearance is something of an outlier.

PITCHf/x data shows that Papelbon has upped the usage of his slider in 2015, which may explain the increase in both his swinging-strike rate and his K/9 rate. At 34 years old, it’s unlikely that Papelbon will see a dramatic resurgence in the velocity department, but he’s still managed to post a pristine 1.01 ERA with 10.5 K/9, 2.4 BB/9 and a career-best 51.5 percent ground-ball rate in 26 1/3 innings this year.

The remaining $7.67MM on his contract is an obstacle, to be sure, as is the $13MM option for 2016 that seems likely to vest. But, at roughly $20.5MM over the coming nine-and-a-half months of regular season games (to say nothing of potential postseason innings), Papelbon’s really not the overpriced asset that he’s often portrayed to be. Depending on the extent to which the Phillies are willing to subsidize an acquiring team, Papelbon could ultimately be looked upon as a below-market asset relative to his production.

Heyman’s Latest: Phillies, C. Johnson, Sellers, Harang, Rays

By Steve Adams | June 19, 2015 at 12:40pm CDT

In his weekly Inside Baseball column, Jon Heyman of CBS Sports begins by taking a look at a messy situation in Philadelphia. Heyman hears the same rumblings that were first reported by CSN Philly’s Jim Salisbury — that Andy MacPhail could very well be in line for an executive role with the Phillies. The hiring of MacPhail would bring into question the status of both GM Ruben Amaro and manager Ryne Sandberg. While one exec notes that no one could have had much success with the hand Sandberg has been dealt, his calm demeanor hasn’t motivated the team much, and he may have lost the clubhouse at this point. Heyman notes that partial owner John Middleton, who is believed by some to be calling the shots in Philly, may have extra impetus to get a new decision-maker in the door so that a lame-duck GM (Amaro’s contract expires at season’s end) isn’t the primary decision-maker on what could be a franchise-altering Cole Hamels trade. Speaking of Hamels, Heyman notes that interested teams will want to see him pitch at least twice now that he had a start pushed back due to a hamstring strain, thinning the window of opportunity to trade him. As far as Jonathan Papelbon goes, the belief is that he’d approve any trade that sent him to a contending team, though the Cubs might be his preferred fit at this point if he had a say in the matter.

Some more highlights from Heyman’s latest (though there’s more in the column than we can cover here)…

The Braves have tried to trade Chris Johnson and even offered to substantially pay down the remaining money on his contract, but there’s been little interest. The Johnson deal was widely questioned from the start, and there’s still about $21MM owed to Johnson through the end of the 2017 season. Johnson’s a viable weapon against lefties, but he’s a sub-par hitter against right-handed pitchers and is not well-regarded from a defensive standpoint.
Rival teams are beginning to wonder if the Red Sox might sell some pieces this summer, with Mike Napoli, Clay Buchholz and Koji Uehara among the possible names listed by Heyman. Napoli isn’t hitting for average but has shown good power and a nice walk rate. Buchholz has improved after a rocky start and Uehara again has strong numbers in the ’pen.
The White Sox are beginning to think about selling, Heyman hears, but they’re not quite ready to move their bigger pieces. Emilio Bonifacio might be the first name they make available, but eventually, Jeff Samardzija’s name could be out there. Heyman writes that while Samardzija isn’t pitching well in 2015, his big arm is so tantalizing to scouts that there will still be interest in him.
The Reds aren’t expected to sell until after the All-Star Game and would be very open to shedding Brandon Phillips’ contract, per Heyman, though I have a difficult time envisioning too many teams lining up to take on the remainder of that deal. Phillips is owed about $34.1MM through the end of the 2017 season and has seen his power more or less vanish. Heyman speculates that Everth Cabrera could be a fit in Cincinnati with Zack Cozart out for the year, and there’s some logic to that scenario, though they may first prefer to see what they have in Eugenio Suarez. The Mets aren’t interested in Cabrera, he adds later.
The Marlins aren’t selling yet, according to GM-turned-manager Dan Jennings. “We’re in it, we’re not jumping off the ship. No doubt about that,” Jennings told Heyman. If their attitude changes, Heyman thinks they’ll find interest in Martin Prado and Mike Dunn.
The Astros like Aaron Harang but are said to be aiming higher when looking at potential trade targets to bolster their rotation.
The Dodgers are on the hunt for a top-tier starting pitcher and a late-inning arm to help bridge the gap to Kenley Jansen. In other Dodgers-related news, Heyman hears that No. 35 pick Kyle Funkhouser is strongly considering returning to Louisville. Funkhouser was once looked at as a potential Top 10 pick, but he fell to a slot with a $1.756MM value. He’d have less leverage in 2016 as a senior sign, of course, but he could certainly improve his draft stock and his bonus with a big senior year.
Yankees chief international officer/executive vice president Felix Lopez is no longer listed on the team’s web site and some indicate that he’s been gone from the organization for three months, Heyman writes. Lopez was said to have angered Yoan Moncada’s camp after calling to express displeasure with their decision to sign in Boston over New York. The team hasn’t made a statement on his departure.
The Rays are looking for first base help with James Loney on the disabled list, but Loney’s said to be returning around the All-Star break. Heyman speculates on the possibility of Ryan Howard ending up in Tampa Bay if the Phillies eat some or all of the contract, but I’d think there’d be something of a logjam there once Loney is activated in that scenario.

NL Central Notes: Cards Investigation, Dominguez, Wang, Schwarber

By Jeff Todd | June 16, 2015 at 9:16pm CDT

Commissioner Rob Manfred told reporters that it’s too soon to know how the league will handle today’s stunning news that the FBI is investigating the Cardinals for possible involvement in last year’s Astros computer system breach. As Evan Drellich of the Houston Chronicle was among those to report, Manfred declined to wade into the details of the matter and stressed that the federal government, not the league, was conducting the investigation. “To assume that the investigation is going to produce a particular result with respect to the Cardinals, let alone to jump to a word like cyber attack, we don’t know that those are the facts yet,” he said. “There is an ongoing investigation. We’ve been fully cooperative. Obviously any allegation like this, no matter how serious it turns out to be, is of great concern to us but it’s just too early to speculate on what the facts are going to turn out to be and what action, if any, is necessary.”

Here’s more from the NL Central:

Adding Matt Dominguez through a waiver claim gave the Brewers options at third base both now and in the future, writes Tom Haudricourt of the Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel. The 24-year-old has an impressive pedigree, of course, and certainly has some upside for a team that’s all but out of it in 2015. But there is a more immediate concern, too: Aramis Ramirez could be dealt this summer, notes Haudricourt, and he’ll need a replacement if moved. Of course, the club also is in need of a future replacement with the veteran set to retire, and a look at the controllable Dominguez certainly makes sense.
Of course, adding Dominguez meant that the Brewers had to expose lefty Wei-Chung Wang to waivers, which Haudricourt explains was a tough move to make. Milwaukee carried Wang on the active roster for all of 2014 just to take a shot on his future, but he was struggling badly this year at the Class A level. As Haudricourt explains, Wang is earning a relatively robust $300K salary (a larger salary cut from his 2014 MLB earnings was not permissible), which may be a deterrent — as is the fact that a claiming team would need to dedicate a 40-man spot (though Wang does have options).
Cubs prospect Kyle Schwarber is expected to have a very short first taste of the big leagues, in large part because he is likely not ready to spend regular time in the field. But that’s probably also a good thing in the long term, given that Chicago continues to give Schwarber time behind the plate rather than giving up and choosing instead to acclimate him to the corner outfield. In fact, as MLB.com’s Carrie Muskat tweets, president of baseball operations Theo Epstein says the club is increasingly bullish on Schwarber’s chances at sticking as a backstop. “We’re more convinced now than ever that he’s going to catch and catch a long time in the big leagues,” said Epstein.

Cubs To Promote Kyle Schwarber

By Jeff Todd | June 15, 2015 at 8:57pm CDT

The Cubs will promote catcher/outfielder Kyle Schwarber for his first big league action, Jesse Rogers of ESPNChicago.com reports on Twitter. Schwarber is expected to spend six games as the club’s DH for interleague play, and will thereafter receive his first taste of the Triple-A level.

Schwarber, 22, was taken with the fourth overall pick in last year’s draft. Coming into the year, prospect evaluators agreed that he was a top-100 pick, though varied widely in placement. Baseball America placed Schwarber inside the top twenty prospects (19th), while Baseball Prospectus rated him 77th in the game.

Certainly, the Indiana University product has done nothing but enhance his value as a professional. He has destroyed pitching throughout the minors, putting up a composite .333/.432/.610 line over 549 plate appearances. At Double-A this year, Schwarber has slashed .318/.439/.578 while banging 13 long balls in 238 turns at bat.

Of course, the question with Schwarber was never his bat, but whether he would stick behind the plate. He’d likely only need to be an adequate defender to provide value as a catcher, though a move to the outfield or first base could also be possible in the long term. For now, of course, Chicago is giving him every chance to work as a backstop.

It appears that this is nothing more than a brief showcase for Schwarber, who really does not have an obvious roster spot to play in the big leagues. The club is set at catcher, with Miguel Montero and David Ross on hand. And while adding a power bat to the corner outfield would certainly hold appeal, Schwarber has spent just 36 games in left over his young professional career.

A huge showing at the plate or a well-timed injury could always change plans, of course. From a service time perspective, Schwarber can rack up no more than 111 days at this point, meaning he would not line up for Super Two status even if he stuck this year and never returned to the minors. Of course, every day added in 2015 will count for future years, making it harder for the Cubs to hold him back when he seems fully ready to play an everyday role in the majors.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Cubs, First-Rounder Ian Happ Agree To Terms

By Steve Adams | June 15, 2015 at 8:38am CDT

The Cubs and first-round pick Ian Happ have agreed to terms on a $3MM bonus, reports MLB.com’s Jim Callis (via Twitter). That bonus represents a savings of $351K for the Cubs in relation to the No. 9 selection’s slot value (per Baseball America).

An outfielder/second baseman out of Cincinnati, Happ was a consensus Top 25 talent in this year’s draft. ESPN’s Keith Law saw Happ the most favorably, ranking him seventh on his Top 100 list. Kiley McDaniel of Fangraphs also had Happ in his Top 10, ranking him ninth. Callis and Jonathan Mayo pegged him at No. 20 on their Top 200, and Happ ranked 24th on Baseball America’s Top 500.

There’s some debate as to whether Happ’s eventual home will be in the outfield grass or on the infield dirt, which likely contributed to the slight gap in the listed rankings. Law calls second base Happ’s likely position, and McDaniel, too, notes that he has the potential to play there. The MLB.com and BA scouting reports note that a corner outfield spot — likely left, due to lack of arm strength — is a likelier outcome, so it’s not a surprise to see him rank a bit further down those lists.

Happ’s bat seems to generate fewer question marks, as all four agree that he’s one of the most advanced hitters in this year’s class. ESPN notes that the switch-hitter has a better swing from the left side and has shown the ability to hit for power. BA notes that he has “excellent” bat speed from both sides of the plate, projecting as a plus hitter with average power. Happ’s also said to be a solid to above-average runner. McDaniel feels he can have four average-or-better tools on the 20-80 scouting scale, while MLB.com feels all five can be average or better.

Happ will add to the continually proliferating stable of premium young hitters in the Cubs’ minor league system. Though the team has already seen the likes of Kris Bryant, Jorge Soler and Addison Russell emerge to lock down regular spots around the diamond, other names such as Kyle Schwarber, Javier Baez, Arismendy Alcantara, Albert Almora, Billy McKinney and Gleyber Torres are still working toward that same goal (though of course each comes with varying timelines).

NL Central Notes: Cubs, Soriano, Ramirez

By | June 13, 2015 at 10:17pm CDT

The Cubs have shifted from developing players to playing for the win, writes Paul Sullivan of the Chicago Tribune. The eye-opening moment came last week when manager Joe Maddon removed closer Hector Rondon from the ninth inning of a 5-4 game. Now the club is going with a closer-by-committee approach – a familiar tactic from Maddon’s days in Tampa Bay. Maddon himself confirms that he prefers to have a set closer – it makes his job easier. However, doing the best thing for the club is a positive wake up call for the entire roster.

Here’s more from the senior circuit’s central division:

Maddon says that recently signed reliever Rafael Soriano may not reach the majors until around the All-Star break, tweets MLB.com’s Bruce Levine. Before he can shake off the rust in the minors, Soriano must obtain a visa. As we learned on Friday, the reliever can opt out of his deal if he’s not on the active roster by the All-Star Game. He’ll earn a pro-rated $4.1MM base salary with up to $4MM in incentives. Additional visa delays could have implications for his salary and opt-out clause.
Brewers third baseman Aramis Ramirez does not have a no trade clause, but he’s not letting trade rumors affect him, reports Adam McCalvy of MLB.com. Ramirez has hit just .223/.263/.406 on the season. He had his best game yesterday, bopping three doubles and driving in five RBI. Ramirez plans to retire after the 2015 season so it’s reasonable to assume he’s open to finishing the season with a contender. He has recently been tied to the Mets, but New York is looking for either a clear upgrade at third base or a versatile player. Ramirez will need more games like yesterday to fit the bill.

Central Notes: Lindor, Price, Cubs, Lynn

By charliewilmoth | June 13, 2015 at 10:45am CDT

If the Super Two threshold was ever a factor keeping top Indians prospect Francisco Lindor out of the big leagues, it does not seem to be anymore, Zack Meisel of the Northeast Ohio Media Group writes. The threshold has likely passed, and teams have promoted top prospects like Carlos Correa and Joey Gallo in recent weeks, but Lindor remains with Triple-A Columbus. Lindor is hitting .279/.346/.398, including .400/.429/.600 in June. The Indians, meanwhile, have undergone upheaval at the shortstop position, with Mike Aviles replacing the struggling Jose Ramirez. Here are more quick notes from the Central divisions.

David Price and the Cubs will be great fits for one another when Price becomes a free agent next winter, Jesse Rogers of ESPN Chicago writes. Price’s former manager Joe Maddon is now in Chicago, and Price says he finds a young team like the Cubs appealing. “They have a lot of guys they can control for a long time,” he says. “It’s very similar to when I first came up in Tampa. Just a bunch of young guys out there having fun. That’s what it’s about. You have to be able to have fun. I don’t want to win and not have fun.”
Cardinals starter Lance Lynn has headed to the disabled list with a forearm strain, and the team has promoted Tyler Lyons to take his place, Bob Nightengale of USA Today tweets. GM John Mozeliak says Lynn should be able to return after the minimum 15 days, as Rick Hummel of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch reports. “A little forearm strain, as it looks right now, should be a normal 15 days and make sure we get everything calmed down — make sure it’s not something that flares up as the year goes on and I don’t try to pitch through something and make it worse,” Lynn says. Lynn’s injury is, however, another blow to a franchise that also has Adam Wainwright, Matt Adams, Matt Holliday and Jordan Walden on the disabled list.

Cubs Sign Rafael Soriano

By Jeff Todd | June 12, 2015 at 1:55pm CDT

FRIDAY: Soriano’s deal does, in fact, include an opt-out clause that allows him to become a free agent if he’s not in the Majors by the All-Star Game in mid-July, CBS Sports’ Jon Heyman writes.

TUESDAY: The Cubs have signed veteran reliever Rafael Soriano to a minor league deal, adding another option to the team’s late-inning mix. He’ll earn the pro-rated portion of a $4.1MM base salary and can add up to $4MM in incentives (based upon games finished and appearances).

It rates as a surprise that Soriano signed a minors pact, of course. After all, he landed at 37th on the top-fifty free agent list of MLBTR’s Tim Dierkes, who explained that Soriano was still a plenty capable reliever last year. Now, he becomes the final name on that list to sign.

On the other hand, as I wrote back in October, the righty faced plenty of competition in his segment of the market. And while technically a minor-league arrangement, his new pact comes with expectations of a relatively quick call-up as well as a significant salary upon his addition to the MLB roster. Early and frequent opt-out clauses would also seem likely, though they remain unreported.

Soriano’s new deal comes not long after he changed representation. Still on the market with two months of the season in the books, Soriano switched from the Boras Corporation to Octagon Baseball. He indicated then that he hoped to sign in fairly short order, and he had been set to hold a showcase later this week.

Of course, it remains to be seen what Soriano has left in the tank. He faded down the stretch last year after a nice start, ending up with a 3.19 ERA with 8.6 K/9 and 2.8 BB/9 over 62 innings. All said, Soriano has produced solid (but not spectacular) results over the last two years despite a loss of fastball velocity.

Looking further back, the former All-Star has been fairly consistent in terms of his end-of-year production, if not his game-to-game results. Going back to the 2006 campaign, Soriano has thrown at least 60 frames seven times and only once ended a year with an earned run average higher than last year’s final mark. While his save tallies may have boosted his prominence beyond his true talent, Soriano has been one of the more reliably useful pen arms in the game for some time.

Chicago currently sits at 20th in the league in terms of reliever ERA, and its late-inning options (such as Hector Rondon, Pedro Strop, and Jason Motte) have been short of dominant. With Neil Ramirez still working back from injury, it is easy to see the need for another quality arm.

By adding Soriano now, the Cubs will gain some time to assess their pen in advance of the trade deadline. It remains possible that the club will be in the market for higher-end relief talent, though the return of Ramirez will hopefully deliver additional punch from the right side.

Gordon Wittenmyer of the Chicago Sun-Times reported that a deal was close. Jon Heyman of CBSSports.com tweeted that the deal was done. James Wagner of the Washington Post tweeted the contract details.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Amateur Notes: July 2, Martinez, Sierra, D’Backs, Draft

By Jeff Todd | June 12, 2015 at 10:30am CDT

With the draft in the books, the next July 2 period is just around the corner. Last year saw several teams blow past their spending allocations, incurring two-year bans on $300K+ signings to do so. As the Angels, Diamondbacks, Rays, Red Sox, and Yankees go on probation, the Cubs and Rangers are returning to the market. Ben Badler of Baseball America breaks down this year’s market, with the Cubs joined by the Dodgers and Royals as teams that seem quite likely to dole out enough excess bonus cash to incur the highest possible penalties. The Phillies and Blue Jays could follow those clubs, says Badler, though they may yet be able to add their top targets without taking on a signing ban. Badler discusses several clubs that could be buyers or sellers of international space, with the Twins profiling as a major acquirer or spending capacity and the D’backs looking to get some value back for the bonus availability that they cannot take advantage of.

You’ll want to give that piece a full read. Here are some other worthwhile amateur links:

Badler discusses the signing situations of BA’s top ten July 2 prospects (non-Cuban edition). He says the Mets are the favorites to land Venezuelan shortstop Andres Gimenez. Though New York probably won’t get Vladimir Guerror Jr., who has long been linked to the Blue Jays, they may instead get Vlad Sr. nephew Gregory Guerrero, another shortstop. Meanwhile, Badler says the Rangers appear set to sign Dominican outfielder Leodys Taveras but now seem likely to lose Bahamian shortstop Lucius Fox to the Dodgers.
Cuban outfielder Eddie Julio Martinez has drawn a range of reviews, with MLB.com pegging him as the top overall international prospect and Badler expressing considerably more doubt. You can have a look for yourself, at least at some batting practice cuts, with a video courtesy of BA.
Well-regarded Cuban right-hander Yaisel Sierra will be represented by Praver-Shapiro Sports Management, Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports tweets. As Badler recently explained, Sierra will be exempt from international signing restrictions when he becomes eligible to sign, but his Serie Nacional track record has never quite matched his promising pure stuff.
The Diamondbacks’ new regime exhibited a notable change in strategy in this year’s draft, Nick Piecoro of the Arizona Republic notes (Twitter links). After going heavy on high schoolers at the top of last year’s draft, Arizona chose 15 collegiate players in its first 19 picks (including each of its first six selections) this time around. Individual draft dynamics always have an important bearing on a team’s final board, of course, but it is notable that the D’Backs ultimately chose just four high school players out of their forty total draft slots.
MLB.com’s Jim Callis lists the five teams that had the best drafts. Like other analysts, he places the Astros, Rockies, and Dodgers at the top of that list. Callis also likes what the Rays and Rangers accomplished with their selections.

Phillies Have Had Recent Papelbon Talks With Blue Jays, Cubs

By Steve Adams | June 10, 2015 at 8:58pm CDT

8:58pm: The Blue Jays had a scout in Cincinnati to watch the Phillies’ series against the Reds, writes CSNPhilly.com’s Jim Salisbury. According to Salisbury, that scout may have also been checking out right-hander Aaron Harang and lefty Cole Hamels. (Salisbury adds that Hamels will not approve a trade to Toronto, however, as has been previously reported.) Salisbury adds that multiple sources have told him that the Blue Jays and Phillies have indeed been discussing Papelbon quite recently.

5:57pm: The Phillies “are ready” to trade Jonathan Papelbon and have had recent discussions with the Cubs and Blue Jays regarding the five-time All-Star, reports Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports. However, there’s currently nothing close, and talks between the Phillies and both of those teams are at an impasse, per Rosenthal.

The Phillies are willing to pay a significant portion of Papelbon’s contract if it means receiving better prospects, and since speaking with the Blue Jays last week, they’ve increased their scouting of Toronto’s minor league affiliates. The Blue Jays are on Papelbon’s no-trade list, though Papelbon said months ago that he would have interest in pitching for Toronto. The Jays are currently one game above .500 and just three games back in the AL East, despite the fact that they’ve endured bullpen struggles nearly all season.

As for the Cubs, their front office knows Papelbon well. Both president Theo Epstein and GM Jed Hoyer worked for the Red Sox when Papelbon was drafted, and each has a respect for his work ethic despite his somewhat abrasive personality. The Cubs aren’t committed to Hector Rondon as the team’s closer and are trying to add multiple late-inning alternatives, hence their recent signing of Rafael Soriano.

Rosenthal hears that the Phillies prefer to deal with the Blue Jays as opposed to the Cubs. I’d imagine that moving Papelbon to Toronto could require the Phils to eat more cash, as Toronto has more budgetary constraints. They’re said to have between $5MM and $8MM to make in-season additions, though Papelbon is earning $13MM this season, of which $8.3MM remains. It seems unlikely that the Blue Jays would want to place all their eggs in this one basket by spending all of the money they have left on Papelbon’s salary. Additionally, Papelbon’s $13MM vesting option has to be a consideration, as if he were inserted into the ninth inning in Toronto, he’d almost certainly reach the 48 games finished needed to lock in that final year.

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