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Offseason Outlook: Chicago Cubs

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After another rebuilding year in 2013, the Cubs will attempt to change the conversation with a new manager and perhaps veteran additions to fill some of the team's many weak spots until top prospects are ready.

Guaranteed Contracts

Arbitration Eligible Players (service time in parenthesis)

Free Agents

2014 Payroll Obligations For Former Players

The Cubs haven't had a .500 record since 2009, way back when Kevin Gregg was their closer (the first time).  The team's current Theo Epstein/Jed Hoyer/Jason McLeod braintrust was hired after the 2011 season.  While they would tell you every season counts, the team has yet to take a win-now approach during the Epstein regime, even with $86MM in new free agent commitments last winter.  For the second consecutive summer, the team's brass shipped out veterans with trade value, including newly-signed ones.

The new regime's record is 127-197, so recently-fired manager Dale Sveum presided over what should be the worst of times.  The Cubs will soon hire their fourth manager in five seasons, prioritizing "managerial or other on-field leadership experience" and "expertise developing young talent."  Joe Girardi, Yankees manager since 2008 and a former Cubs player and Illinois native, has a contract that expires at the end of the month.  Cubs ownership covets him and is poised to offer $4MM or more per season, reported Gordon Wittenmyer of the Chicago Sun-Times, though they've not yet been granted permission to speak to him and the Yankees made an offer to retain him.  Hiring Girardi would be a sign the team is getting serious about trying to win, as he would not likely be thrilled taking on a team lacking Major League talent.  Manny Acta, Sandy Alomar Jr., A.J. Hinch, and Dave Martinez are other possible candidates, reports Wittenmyer.

In the statement regarding Sveum's firing, Epstein acknowledged the Cubs' biggest issue as a "shortage of talent at the major league level."  This year Cubs position players accounted for just 16.9 wins above replacement, 21st in baseball.  In terms of players controlled beyond this year who provided as least two wins, the list is short: catcher Welington Castillo and part-time third baseman Luis Valbuena.

Notably absent are the Cubs' two biggest Major League building blocks, Starlin Castro and Anthony Rizzo.  Both players are signed through 2019.  Castro took a big step backward with the bat, hitting .245/.284/.347.  He may never draw walks, but the Cubs will need him to at least return to making better contact and showing moderate power, even if he doesn't develop into a star.  When Castro signed his $60MM extension, he had almost 1,800 big league plate appearances.  Rizzo, however, had fewer than 700.  The only other player to receive $40MM+ with that short of a big league track record is Ryan Braun in 2008.  Playing his first full season this year, Rizzo failed to reach the offensive production of an average first baseman.

The Cubs figure to show patience toward Castro and Rizzo into 2014, while hoping for continued growth from Castillo.  In Javier Baez, however, Castro has one of the game's best prospects pushing him.  Baez may be ready for Major League action by next summer, if he cleans up his defense and perhaps cuts down on his strikeouts.  The best case scenario is a Castro-Baez middle infield tandem, while third base is an option for Baez as well.  Kris Bryant, drafted second overall by the Cubs in June, could also be ready next year, and projects for third base or right field.  Furthering the Cubs' infield depth are Mike Olt, acquired in the Matt Garza trade, Christian Villanueva, acquired in the Ryan Dempster deal, and Arismendy Alcantara.  It's been a lost year for Olt, but overall, the Cubs' infield depth is strong.  Second base may be the biggest short-term need, particularly if Barney is traded or non-tendered.  I don't expect the Cubs to get involved on Robinson Cano, but Omar Infante could be a consideration.  After hitting 11 home runs in 163 plate appearances, Donnie Murphy may have earned himself a contract for 2014 and the initial crack at the hot corner.

The Cubs have a pair of premium outfield prospects in Albert Almora and Jorge Soler.  Neither is Major League ready, however, leaving only Schierholtz locked in for 2014.  Schierholtz provided cheap power against right-handed pitching this year, and perhaps the Cubs will again acquire a right-handed hitting complement like Rajai Davis, Justin Ruggiano, or Kyle Blanks.  An in-house right-handed bat, Junior Lake, could have the inside track on left field after a decent rookie showing following the trade of Alfonso Soriano.  Lake could help in center field, as could Brian Bogusevic.  Minor league signing Ryan Sweeney performed well, though he's a free agent again.  Other center field stopgaps should be explored as well, such as Davis, Ruggiano, Chris Young, and Franklin Gutierrez.  Illinois native Curtis Granderson could make some sense, but a qualifying offer and/or a three-year requirement would likely suppress interest from the Cubs.  The Cubs' long-term outfield plan seems to be in place, though that won't stop agent Scott Boras from pitching free agent Jacoby Ellsbury.  Epstein doesn't need to review Ellsbury's Boras Binder, however, after drafting him in the first round in '05 and watching him blossom into a star in Boston.

The Cubs have traded 40% of their rotation each summer under the Epstein regime, moving Paul Maholm and Dempster in 2012 and Scott Feldman and Garza this year.  Maholm was the only one not in a contract year.  The Cubs continue to wait on a potential return for Maholm, as the recovery period for Arodys Vizcaino's March 2012 Tommy John surgery has taken much longer than expected.  Jake Arrieta, a key piece in the Feldman deal with Baltimore, projects to earn a spot in next year's rotation out of spring training.  Lefty Travis Wood represented the Cubs in the All-Star game this year and has a spot locked down for 2014, as do Jeff Samardzija and Edwin Jackson.

Last winter the Cubs imported an unprecedented four free agent starters, and the depth was needed when Scott Baker's Tommy John recovery stalled and Garza and Feldman were dealt.  I don't think anyone saw the team's flirtation with Anibal Sanchez or four-year deal with Jackson coming last winter.  While Chris Rusin, Justin Grimm, or Carlos Villanueva could take the fifth starter job next year, it seems likely the Cubs will look to add pitching from outside the organization again.  That could mean another go-round with Baker, other one-year projects like Gavin Floyd, Roy Halladay, Josh Johnson, Jason Hammel, Roberto Hernandez, Dan Haren, or Phil Hughes, or multiyear commitments to Scott Kazmir, Tim Lincecum, Ubaldo Jimenez, or Masahiro Tanaka.  David Price will be the prize of the trade market, though two years of control doesn't mesh well with the Cubs' timeline.

In Samardzija, the Cubs could offer up a trade chip with a 95 mile per hour fastball, fresh off a 214 strikeout season.  With a 3.34 ERA over the season's first three months, the 28-year-old appeared to be in the midst of an ace-caliber season.  Samardzija followed that with a 5.47 ERA, however, and in the end mostly replicated his 2012 season with an additional 39 innings.  On the trade market, two years of Samardzija could bring a huge haul, exceeding the well-regarded package the Cubs extracted from the Rangers to rent Garza for a few months.  First the Cubs will explore an extension, which I think could be in the range of the $80MM deals signed by Felix Hernandez and Justin Verlander four years prior.  To date, the pitcher and agents Sam Samardzija and Mark Rodgers have not shown a willingness to take a team-friendly deal, and getting closer to free agency should only strengthen their stance.

Among the team's other arbitration eligible players, the Cubs could look to sign Schierholtz or Wood to multiyear deals.  Castillo, who has two years of service, could be a candidate for a team-friendly contract.  Despite a 3.11 ERA this year, the Cubs may be best served waiting on Wood, whose skills suggest more of a 4.50 pitcher.

Even with an out of nowhere 33-save season from Gregg, the Cubs' bullpen ranked 13th in the NL with a 4.04 ERA.  Though the Cubs' Fujikawa signing went bust due to Tommy John surgery, it showed a willingness to spend to solidify the bullpen.  Arbitration eligible lefty James Russell could be a trade candidate; otherwise he'll join holdovers Blake Parker, Strop, and perhaps Grimm and Villanueva.  Hector Rondon will likely be in the mix, and if the Cubs tender a contract to September waiver claim project Daniel Bard, he could become an option as well.  The Cubs will probably bring in a veteran reliever or two from the outside, letting Gregg walk as a free agent after nearly releasing him in September over complaints he made.

Among the Cubs' free agents, aside from Sweeney and perhaps Baker, the team may entertain re-signing backup catcher Dioner Navarro.  Due to the stellar work of Castillo and Navarro, the Cubs ranked fourth in baseball with five wins above replacement at catcher.  They paid just $2.25MM for the pair, but the 29-year-old Navarro may have earned himself another shot at starting with another club.  The Cubs could add a veteran backup to replace him.

Cubs fans have patiently watched for two years as Epstein, Hoyer, McLeod and company rebuilt the team from the ground up.  Fans might allow for one more talent-stockpiling mulligan in 2014, perhaps with the reward of a Baez summer debut.  Expectations for 2015 will be huge, at which point Epstein will have two years remaining on his contract.

NL Central Notes: Cubs, Reds, Castillo, Baker,

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Yesterday, we learned that the Cubs will contact Padres executive A.J. Hinch about a possible return to managing.  The Cubs obviously have a big focus on player development and Hinch's work with Justin Upton, Max Scherzer, Stephen Drew, and Miguel Montero is likely a plus for the club.  Here's a look at the NL Central as the Pirates get set to do battle with the Cardinals..

  • Tim Dierkes (via Twitter) has talked with multiple agents who see the Cubs spending significant money on a free agent catcher this winter.  That comes as something of a surprise following a solid year by Wellington Castillo, who is still pre-arbitration eligible.  Castillo, 26, hit .274/.349/.397 in 428 plate appearances this season.
  • The Cubs aren't locked on to anyone in their managerial search, but they have serious interest in Yankees skipper Joe Girardi, sources tell ESPN.com's Buster Olney.  Cubs ownership is rather high on Girardi and they're making a strong internal argument to hire him.  Meanwhile, Yanks GM Brian Cashman is scheduled to meet with Girardi's agent today.
  • In the immediate aftermath of last night's loss, Reds GM indicated that Dusty Baker will be back in 2014, writes John Fay of the Cincinnati Enquirer. When asked if there was any question about Baker returning, Jocketty said: “I don’t think so.  He’s signed for another year.” The final call on the veteran skipper will be made by owner Bob Castellini.
  • The Cubs have a plan in place for the future but it will require patience as their top prospects aren't ready for the big leagues yet, writes Carrie Muskat of MLB.com.  President Theo Epstein has indicated that he won't spend a ton this winter and will instead look to fill holes with low-cost signings.

Central Notes: Hinch, Royals, Tigers

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The Cubs will contact A.J. Hinch as they search for a replacement for manager Dale Sveum, Jon Heyman of CBS Sports reports. Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports suggested earlier in the day (on Twitter) that Hinch might be a possibility. Hinch, who is now in the Padres' front office, served as the Diamondbacks' manager for parts of the 2009 and 2010 seasons. His work in the Diamondbacks organization with players like Justin Upton, Max Scherzer, Stephen Drew and Miguel Montero might be a positive for the Cubs, who have a strong core of prospects in place. Here are more notes from the Central divisions.

NL Central Notes: Pirates, Reds, Hinch, Brewers

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The Pirates, who tonight will host their first playoff game since 1992, were built not only through the draft, as small-payroll teams often are, but also through trades and free agency, Rob Biertempfel of the Pittsburgh Tribune-Review writes. Andrew McCutchen, Neil Walker and Tony Watson were drafted by Neal Huntington's predecessor Dave Littlefield, and Huntington drafted Pedro Alvarez, Jordy Mercer, Justin Wilson and Gerrit Cole. But the 2013 Pirates were shaped, in large part, by two 2012 acquisitions of former Yankees — the Bucs traded for top-of-the-rotation starter A.J. Burnett before the 2012 campaign, and signed catcher and defensive wizard Russell Martin to a two-year deal after the season was over. Here are more notes from around the NL Central.

  • A loss for the Reds tonight could raise questions about the team's future, Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports writes. Outfielder Shin-Soo Choo is set to become a free agent. And if pitching coach Bryan Price becomes a top managerial candidate with the Mariners, there might be questions about Dusty Baker's future with the Reds as well, since the Reds would likely want to keep Price. Such questions probably wouldn't be resolved right away, however — Baker is due around $4MM next year, and the Reds had 90 wins this year, so there would be no rush to replace him.
  • After dismissing Dale Sveum, the Cubs are looking for a manager, and Rosenthal (via Twitter) thinks former Diamondbacks manager A.J. Hinch might be one possibility. Hinch is currently an assistant GM for the Padres. Rosenthal tweets that, among Padres personnel, Hinch appears more likely for the Cubs job than special assistant Brad Ausmus.
  • First base tops the Brewers' list of priorities this offseason, Adam McCalvy of MLB.com writes. Brewers first basemen hit just .206/.259/.370 in 2013, and their primary first baseman was Yuniesky Betancourt, who hit .212/.240/.355. GM Doug Melvin suggests the Brewers could bring back Corey Hart after Hart missed the entire 2013 season, but the Brewers want to learn more about the condition of his knees.

Arbitration Eligibles: Chicago Cubs

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Matt Swartz has developed a very accurate model that MLBTR uses to project arbitration salaries, as explained in this series of posts. We've heard from many MLB teams and agencies that reference the projections in their work.  The Cubs are next in our series.  Estimated service time is in parentheses, and estimated 2014 salary follows.

Samardzija is the Cubs' most important arbitration case, in that they are running out of time to extend him as he moves closer to free agency.  Though he didn't improve much this year beyond pitching more innings, extensions for pitchers with four years of Major League service are rare.  Samardzija should be able to get past Matt Harrison's five-year, $55MM deal, and closer to $80MM territory.  If the Cubs can't agree with his agent on his value, he could bring an impressive haul in trade this winter.

Schierholtz, Russell, Wood, Valbuena, and Strop have roles on next year's team, perhaps barring trades of the first two.  Though Wood had something of a breakout season, I don't think there's urgency to give him a $30MM guarantee on a multiyear deal, given lackluster peripheral stats.

We've projected Bard for the same salary he had last year, since reductions are so rare.  The Cubs' September waiver claim of Bard suggests they'll tender him a contract, or at least non-tender and quickly re-sign him for less than the allowable 20% pay cut.  Murphy has generally been deemed expendable by teams, but it would be fair to keep him on the roster after he hit 11 home runs in 163 plate appearances for the Cubs.

Barney won a Gold Glove in 2012 and continued to play strong defense this year.  However, his lack of offensive production dwarfed his defense, resulting in a replacement level season.  A non-tender seems extreme, partially because $2.1MM is acceptable money for a backup.  The Cubs may instead consider trading Barney this winter.  McDonald, a journeyman outfielder, will likely lose his 40-man roster spot soon.

If the Cubs tender contracts to Samardzija, Schierholtz, Wood, Barney, Bard, Russell, Valbuena, Strop, and Murphy, they'll be looking at an estimated $21.5MM for nine arbitration eligible players.

Quick Hits: Pence, Westbrook, Abreu, Astros

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While it’s not a mistake on the level of the Barry Zito contract, the Giants could come to regret the Hunter Pence deal, writes Dave Cameron of Fangraphs. The $90MM contract won’t stop them from winning if they can surround him with quality players on undervalue contracts, but that’s obviously easier said than done. Here’s more from around baseball..

  • Jake Westbrook can read the writing on the wall and knows that his time with the Cardinals is likely over, writes Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch. Between his struggles and the Cards’ wealth of young pitching, Westbrook isn’t expected to be placed on the postseason roster. Westbrook isn’t certain if he will pitch in 2014 and plans to discuss with his family in the offseason.
  • Ben Badler of Baseball America spoke with international sources to identify five teams that could sign Jose Dariel Abreu.  The White Sox, Nationals, Pirates, Red Sox, and Rangers look like the frontrunners for the Cuban standout with Texas possibly having the inside track on everyone.
  • Prior to a charity event earlier today, Astros owner Jim Crane said that he plans to spend money in 2014 to help turn the club around, writes Jose de Jesus Ortiz of the Houston Chronicle. “Now we have a nucleus to draw from. And so we got that established. I think in the off-season you’ll see Jeff [Luhnow], and he’s already said it, we’re going to fill some of those holes. As the kids come up through the system we can get competitive very quick. We lost a lot of one-run games. It’s pretty obvious where our needs are, and we’ll work on those in the offseason and start loosening the purse book,” Crane said.
  • Cubs president Theo Epstein says he will look first and foremost at candidates with managerial experience, tweets Jesse Rogers of ESPNChicago.com.
  • Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports (on Twitter) notes that the Dodgers hold an option on manager Don Mattingly for 2014.  The option is worth $1.4MM, sources tell Rosenthal and Jon Paul Morosi.

Cubs Fire Dale Sveum

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11:25am: Cubs president Theo Epstein has issued a lengthy statement praising Sveum for his work on game-planning and defensive positioning, and never complaining about the hand he was dealt while with the Cubs. Within the statement, he adds that he and GM Jed Hoyer accept responsibility for the team's win-loss record, which is the result of their own rebuilding plan. Says Epstein:

"Today, we made the very difficult decision to relieve Dale Sveum of his duties as Cubs manager.  Dale has been a committed leader for this team the last two seasons, and I want to thank him for all of his dedication and hard work.  I have a lot of admiration for Dale personally, and we all learned a lot from the way he has handled the trying circumstances of the last two years, especially the last two weeks, with strength and dignity."

The entire statement can be read over at CSNChicago.com.

10:59am: The Cubs have fired manager Dale Sveum, according to Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports (on Twitter).

Sveum took over as the Cubs manager at the onset of the 2012 campaign and has managed the team to a 127-197 record in two seasons at the helm. He hasn't been handed a great deal of big league talent to work with from the rebuilding Cubs. Sveum has previously served as a third base coach for the Red Sox and was also the bench coach and third base coach for the Brewers before eventually taking over as their interim manager to close out the 2008 season. He finished that season 7-5 and lost to the Phillies in the NLDS.

Sveum has been thought to be on thin ice for quite some time now, and there are rumblings that Chicago native Joe Girardi could be of interest to the Cubs. Girardi's contract with the Yankees ran only through the 2013 season.

NL Central Notes: Burnett, Sveum, Aoki

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Pirates pitcher A.J. Burnett could be making his last career start when he takes the hill tonight against the Reds. The Pirates have clinched a playoff spot, of course, but they're extremely likely to end up in a one-game playoff, also against Cincinnati. Francisco Liriano figures to start that game, and if the Pirates lose it, their season would be over. Burnett recently told the press he was "50-50" about whether he would play in 2014, although the Pirates have shown strong interest in bringing him back. Here are more notes from the NL Central.

  • Theo Epstein, Jed Hoyer and the Cubs are likely to make a decision about manager Dale Sveum and his coaching staff by Monday, Patrick Mooney of CSNChicago.com reports (via Twitter). Sveum's status has been uncertain for weeks now, with rumblings that the Cubs always considered him a placeholder until they were ready to compete. A strong year for the Cubs' top prospects may have convinced Epstein and Hoyer to be more aggressive in finding a manager for next season. The Cubs have gone 66-93 while rebuilding in 2013.
  • The Brewers will exercise outfielder Norichika Aoki's option, MLB.com's Adam McCalvy reports (via Twitter). Aoki's option is only for $1.5MM (with a $250K buyout) and so, as McCalvy notes, the decision was likely an easy one for Milwaukee. Aoki has produced a combined 4.2 WAR in his two seasons with the Brewers, including 1.7 in a 2013 season in which he's hit .287/.357/.368.

Baez, Taveras, Sano Change Agencies

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4:29pm: Cubs top prospect Javier Baez has also changed agencies and is now represented by KPS Sports, according to ESPN's Jerry Crasnick (on Twitter). MLBTR's Tim Dierkes tweeted last week that Baez had joined a small, lesser-known agency without a great deal of experience. He appears to be the most noteworthy player signed with KPS. Baez was formerly represented by B.B. Abbott of Jet Sports Management.

On their midseason Top 50 lists, Baez ranked as the game's No. 9 prospect according to MLB.com, No. 10 according to BA and No. 27 according to Keith Law. The 20-year-old shortstop batted .282/.341/.578 with a highly impressive 37 homers between High-A Daytona and Double-A Tennessee this season.

8:31am: Miguel Sano and Oscar Taveras are consensus top five prospects in the game, and each has recently changed representation. Jon Heyman of CBS Sports reports that Sano's agent, Rob Plummer, has been hired by SFX after parting ways with the Beverly Hills Sports Council, and Sano has stuck with his longtime agent. Taveras, meanwhile, is back with former agent Melvin Roman of MDR Sports Management (Twitter links).

Taveras has now changed agencies a remarkable four times since January and, strangely, is back with Roman for the third time in 2013 alone. Taveras left MDR for Plummer back in January but switched back less than a month later. He remained with MDR through mid-August when he joined Greg Genske's Legacy Agency. The Cardinals outfielder ranked second on the Midseason Top 50 Prospect lists of Baseball America, ESPN's Keith Law (Insider subscription req'd) and MLB.com's Jonathan Mayo despite an injury-shortened season. The 21-year-old Taveras hit a solid .306/.361/.462 with five homers in 46 games for Triple-A Memphis but missed most of the season due to ankle surgery.

The 20-year-old Sano mashed his way to a No. 3 ranking on the Midseason Top 50 Prospect lists of Baseball America and MLB.com and a No. 4 ranking on the same list from Law. The powerful Twins prospect batted .280/.382/.610 with a combined 35 homers between High-A Fort Myers and Double-A New Britain.

For additional agency info on nearly 2,000 Major League and Minor League players, check out MLBTR's Agency Database. If you see any omissions or errors within the database, please email us at mlbtrdatabase@gmail.com.

Quick Hits: Commissioner, Rollins, Diamondbacks

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Now that Bud Selig has announced he will retire following the 2014 season, speculation has already begun about who will be Major League Baseball's next commissioner.  ESPN's Jayson Stark thinks it would be "a monumental upset" if MLB doesn't go with an internal candidate, and the favorites are league executive vice-presidents Rob Manfred and Tim Brosnan, and MLB Advanced Media CEO Bob Bowman.  Yahoo Sports' Jeff Passan hears that Manfred is the safest and most well-rounded pick, though some sources consider Brosnan to be the better candidate.  Stark and Passan list such names as Tigers GM Dave Dombrowski, Mets GM Sandy Alderson, Indians president Mark Shapiro and Diamondbacks president Derrick Hall as other possible choices.

Here are some notes as Yankee Stadium says goodbye to Mariano Rivera…

  • Jimmy Rollins is confident that the Phillies already have the pieces they need to succeed thanks to their emerging youth, CSNPhilly.com's Corey Seidman writes.  “That old window's closed," Rollins admitted. "This is a brand new thing. You've still got the pieces, but this is a brand new thing going forward. Obviously we would love to have that right-handed bat, but Darin Ruf has come up and done that so far. We're going to get Ryan [Howard] back, hopefully a healthy Ryan back on his legs and strong."
  • Diamondbacks GM Kevin Towers will recommend to ownership that manager Kirk Gibson be retained for next season, Towers told reporters (including MLB.com's Steve Gilbert).  Gibson has a 289-277 record since taking over as Arizona's manager halfway through the 2010 season and he led the team to an NL West title in 2011.  Both Gibson and Towers are only under contract through the end of the 2014 season.
  • While Brad Ziegler has enjoyed being the Diamondbacks' closer, he tells Nick Piecoro of the Arizona Republic that it doesn't matter if he's closing or in his usual set-up role next season.  Ziegler has a 2.28 ERA and 12 saves over 71 IP and a league-best 76 games this season.  He's going into his third and final year of arbitration eligibility though there has been talk that Arizona will try to work out a contract extension.
  • Jack Zduriencik's mistakes as the Mariners' general manager are recapped by Geoff Baker of the Seattle Times in a piece that chronicles the team's strategies and major transactions over the last several years.  While Baker holds Zduriencik accountable for his own mistakes, he also points the finger at the club's upper management for the larger issues surrounding the Mariners' lack of recent success.
  • John Danks is "embarrassed" by his performance since signing a five-year, $65MM extension with the White Sox before the 2012 season, the southpaw tells MLB.com's Scott Merkin.  "The goal is always to throw 200-plus innings, take the ball every day and give us a chance to win. I've got three years to make everyone believe it was worth it," Danks said.  "That's part of my motivating factor. I want to be the productive player I'm expected to be."
  • "The Cubs are the last-place team poised to contend the soonest. The Astros are the one with the brightest future," Jim Callis writes for MLB.com in his analysis of both teams' young talent.

MLBTR's Zach Links contributed to this post

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