Samardzija Extension Appears Unlikely
An extension between the Cubs and Opening Day starter Jeff Samardzija this offseason "looks like a long shot" according to Gordon Wittenmyer of the Chicago Sun-Times. Wittenmyer's sources indicate that a sizable financial gap exists between the two sides, and neither is confident that said gap can be closed this winter.
Samardzija, 28, completed his first 200-inning season in 2013, totaling a 4.31 ERA with 9.0 K/9, 3.3 BB/9 and a 48.2 percent ground-ball rate. His ERA is surprising when considering his K/BB numbers and strong ground-ball rate, and indeed, sabermetric stats such as xFIP (3.45) and SIERA (3.60) feel that he had quite a bit of poor luck on his side.
Samardijza has transitioned from a solid setup man to a reliable rotation piece in recent years. He's racked up 388 1/3 innings in Chicago's rotation since Opening Day 2012 and figures to hold down a spot in their 2014 rotation as well, barring a trade.
The Cubs were willing to listen on Samardzija this July, with the Diamondbacks among the most frequently rumored teams to have interest. However, in the end, it was reported that the Cubs never got close to dealing the Notre Dame product and planned to discuss a long-term deal this offseason.
As shown in MLBTR's Extension Tracker, recent extensions for starting pitchers with between four and five years of service time include Matt Harrison (five years, $55MM), John Danks (five years, $65MM), Justin Verlander (five years, $80MM) and Felix Hernandez (five years, $78MM). Five years would seem is likely the target for agents Mark Rodgers and Sam Samardzija (Jeff's brother).
This is my own speculation, but the Danks contract may be the Samardzija camp's floor, as the 3.99 ERA compiled by Danks over his 383 1/3 innings prior to the extension is similar to the 4.10 mark that Samardzija owns over his past 388 frames. While Danks had a slight edge in ERA and control, Samardzija has Danks dwarfed in strikeouts, has a more impressive ground-ball rate and is considered a better pitcher in sabermetric circles.
Wittenmyer spoke with Samardzija's close friend and former teammate Ryan Dempster about the situation, with Dempster noting that Samardzija's strongest desire is to win with the Cubs. Wittenmyer points out that Samardzija has said all along that money isn't the biggest issue for him, but he also cautions that doesn't mean Cubs fans should expect a hometown discount. Samardzija has shown a willingness to go year-to-year at this point, and MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz expects a healthy raise on Samardzija's modest $2.64MM salary this offseason, projecting him to earn $4.9MM after the arbitration dust has settled.
Wittenmyer feels that barring an extension this offseason, Samardzija is certain to be dealt next July, if not this winter. The Cubs control Samardzija through the 2015 season, so dealing him with more than one year of team control left would maximize his trade value.
Central Notes: Tulo, Cubs/Tigers Managerial Openings
The World Series continues tonight in St. Louis with the Cardinals holding a 2-1 lead over the Red Sox after Game 3's controversial ending. Even though their season is still in progress, many are already anticipating the Cardinals' offseason needs and shortstop sits atop that list. Earlier today, Troy Tulowitzki's name was mentioned as a possible target. Troy E. Renck of the Denver Post writes Tulo would fit perfectly in St. Louis with the Rockies' haul starting with first baseman Matt Adams and some mix of outfielder Stephen Piscotty, second baseman Kolten Wong and reliever Carlos Martinez. Renck, however, doesn't expect such a mega-deal because Rockies owner Dick Monfort has stated Tulowitzki will not be traded. Elsewhere from MLB's Central Divisions:
- The Cubs will interview Torey Lovullo shortly after the conclusion of the World Series, reports the Chicago Sun-Times' Gordon Wittenmyer. The Cubs have yet to request permission to speak with the Red Sox's bench coach, sources from both organizations tell Wittenmyer.
- Within the same article, multiple industry sources say Padres bench coach Rick Renteria appears to be the favorite to land the Cubs' job.
- The Tigers face the same challenge the Cardinals did two years ago when Tony LaRussa retired, opines John Lowe of the Detroit Free Press. If Dave Dombrowski follows the blueprint of John Mozeliak, Lowe reasons Tigers hitting coach Lloyd McClendon will likely replace Jim Leyland as manager.
- Earlier today, I posted some Indians notes on Chris Perez, Jake Westbrook, and Corey Hart.
Managerial/Coaching Links: Nats, Cubs, Tigers
Denard Span had been hoping that bench coach Randy Knorr would be promoted to the team's manager, but he tells James Wagner and Adam Kilgore of the Washington Post that he's excited by the hiring of Matt Williams. Right-hander Ryan Mattheus tells the Post duo that he grew up watching Williams as a Giants fan and used to emulate his game in the backyard, so he's particularly excited about the hiring. Here's more on the Nats and the manager/coaching situations from around the league…
- From that same piece, Wagner and Kilgore report that the pitchers are hopeful that the Nationals will retain pitching coach Steve McCatty, the team's longest-tenured coach. Hitting coach Rick Schu, who coached with Williams in Arizona from 2007-09, will remain in the organization in some capacity, even if Williams wants a different hitting coach, GM Mike Rizzo said.
- A.J. Hinch and Rick Renteria will receive second interviews for the Cubs' managerial vacancy, tweets Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports. The Cubs will conduct an in-person interview with Eric Wedge on Tuesday but have already spoken with him on the phone, Rosenthal adds.
- Red Sox bench coach Torey Lovullo is on the list of managerial candidates for the Tigers, Mariners and Cubs, as pointed out most recently by Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe. Lovullo tells James Schmel of MLive.com that he is indeed interested in being a manager, but obviously his sole focus at the moment is on the World Series. According to Schmel, the Tigers' list of candidates currently includes Lovullo, current third base coach Tom Brookens, current bullpen coach Mike Rojas and former big league managers Manny Acta and Dusty Baker. Lloyd McClendon and Tim Wallach have already interviewed.
Quick Hits: Jimenez, Ellsbury, Cubs, 2014 Draft
As the World Series shifts to St. Louis this weekend, here's the latest from around baseball…
- The Indians "would love" having Ubaldo Jimenez back on a one-year, $14.1MM qualifying offer contract (with an option for 2015) but not on an expensive long-term deal, Paul Hoynes of the Cleveland Plain Dealer says on a podcast with Chris Fedor. Tim Lincecum's two-year, $35MM contract from the Giants has put the cost of pitching out of Cleveland's range for Jimenez, who the Tribe feel has been too inconsistent to merit a multiyear commitment.
- "There is so much money in the game, free agency is crazy," an anonymous GM tells Peter Gammons (Twitter link). The GM also believes Lincecum's deal will end any chance of Jimenez returning to Cleveland and that Jacoby Ellsbury will earn a contract worth more than $100MM in free agency this winter.
- MLBTR's Tim Dierkes, meanwhile, thinks Ellsbury's eventual contract could approach the $150MM threshold (Twitter link).
- There is at least one mystery candidate on the Cubs' short list of potential managers, Gordon Wittenmyer of the Chicago Sun-Times reports. Rick Renteria, Torey Lovullo, A.J. Hinch, Manny Acta and Dave Martinez have already been connected to the job and Eric Wedge is the latest candidate to be scheduled for an interview. As to the identity of the unknown candidate, Wittenmyer says it isn't Sandy Alomar, Mike Maddux, Jose Oquendo, Don Mattingly, Jim Leyland or any of the Cubs' current coaching staff.
- NC State left-hander Carlos Rodon headlines the list of the top 30 prospects of the 2014 amateur draft, according to ESPN's Keith Law and Christopher Crawford (Insider subscription required). Rodon is considered the favorite to be the first overall selection in June and the Astros are already looking at him.
Managerial/Coaching Notes: Wakamatsu, Wedge, White Sox
Earlier today it was reported that the Nationals will hire Diamondbacks third base coach and five-time Major League All-Star Matt Williams as their new manager. Though an official announcement has yet to come, it wouldn't be surprising to see the team wait until after the World Series in accordance with MLB's preference for teams not to distract from the World Series (as pointed out by Mark Zuckerman of CSN Washington). Here's the latest on managerial vacancies and coach hirings from around the league…
- The Royals announced that they have named former Mariners manager Don Wakamatsu as their Major League bench coach and promoted Mike Jirschele from Triple-A Omaha manager to Major League coach. Wakamatsu will also work as a special instructor for catchers. Jirschele, the Royals note, led the Storm Chasers to their second Pacific Coast League title of the past three seasons in 2013 (All Twitter links).
- ESPN's Keith Law points out (via Twitter) that Williams is a minority owner of the Diamondbacks and will have to sell his share in order to take the job with the Nationals.
- The Cubs will interview former Mariners manager Eric Wedge for their managerial vacancy next week, the MLB Network's Peter Gammons said on 670AM The Score in Chicago this morning (h/t: Gordon WIttenmyer of the Chicago Sun-Times).
- The White Sox will hire Todd Steverson as their Major League hitting coach, according to MLB.com's Scott Merkin. Steverson, who will soon turn 42, has served as a minor league manager and hitting coach in the A's organization as well as Oakland's Major League first base coach. Merkin offers past quotes from Steverson, who talked about the importance of controlled aggression in the box and the dangers of being too passive at the plate.
- Jerry Crasnick of ESPN reported yesterday that Tigers hitting coach Lloyd McClendon interviewed for the team's managerial vacancy (Twitter link). Crasnick later appeared on 105.1 radio in Detroit and spoke with host Matt Dery about McClendon's candidacy, revealing that the interview lasted four hours (audio link).
Managerial/Coaching Notes: Cubs, Backman, Leyland
Tony La Russa is available, but Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe hears that the Cubs haven't reached out to the former Cardinals skipper. Meanwhile, La Russa is telling his friends that he'd be more intereted in a front office role if he were to jump back in. Here's the latest managerial and coaching news from around baseball..
- Rays bench coach Dave Martinez says that his interview with the Cubs for their vacant managerial position went "really well," writes Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times. In addition to the standard topics, Martinez said they talked about lineup construction and game preparation and watched some in-game video sequences to go over what moves he would make. The Cubs have also interviewed Padres bench coach Rick Renteria, former Indians and Nats manager Manny Acta, and former D-backs manager A.J. Hinch.
- Red Sox bench coach Torey Lovullo is also in the mix for the Cubs' gig, but he says that he's not thinking about it at this time, writes Paul Sullivan of the Chicago Tribune. At the same time, he was open about his desire to manage a big league team and spoke fondly of Theo Epstein.
- Wally Backman is expected to return as the Mets' Triple-A manager next season, a team insider told Adam Rubin of ESPNNewYork.com. The Mets have not been asked by any other club for permission to speak with Backman about a managerial opening.
- When asked about whether Jim Leyland will return in 2014, GM Dave Dombrowski said that now is "not the time," tweets Jon Heyman of CBSSports.com.
Cafardo On Tigers, Sandoval, La Russa, Blue Jays
After the Tigers were knocked out of the playoffs, Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe looks at some of the club's flaws. He starts at the top of the lineup, where Austin Jackson's .337 on-base percentage and eight stolen bases were not good enough of a contrast to the slow, power-hitting lineup that produced the best offense in baseball. Possible solutions this winter include Scott Boras clients Shin-Soo Choo and Jacoby Ellsbury. “That’s the one team we haven’t heard Ellsbury’s name mentioned with,” said one American League GM. “We’ve heard a lot about the Mets, Mariners, Rangers, but the Tigers make perfect sense. They are a big-market team with big resources. There’s a relationship with Scott and Mr. Ilitch. They’ve done business before and there’s no reason they can’t do business again.” Here's more from today's column..
- The Giants would probably listen to anyone who had interest in Pablo Sandoval, but his weight will be an issue for clubs. However, his conditioning might not totally dissuade teams given the lack of third base options available.
- Tony La Russa is out there, but according to a Cubs source there’s been no contact with him. For his part, La Russa has told friends he’d rather be considered for a front office job than manage again.
- Two people in baseball operations with the Blue Jays indicated to Cafardo that they need two quality starting pitchers to go with Brandon Morrow, Mark Buehrle, and R.A. Dickey. They could take care of one of those spots by extending a qualifying offer to Josh Johnson.
- It doesn't appear that Justin Morneau will return to the Pirates but the Orioles could make a play for him this winter as they go for another bat. If Carlos Beltran is too pricey, Morneau could be an alternative even though the O's may prefer a right-handed bat like Mike Morse.
- The Red Sox went pretty far in their pursuit of Jose Dariel Abreu, but ultimately they lost out to the White Sox. It was a sensitive negotiation for Boston out of respect for pending free agent Mike Napoli, who would have been affected by an Abreu signing.
- There’s some real talk about the possibility that the Rays could see Montreal as a real alternative if plans for a new stadium don’t work out in the Tampa area.
- One of the reasons why Nolan Ryan parted ways with the Rangers was because of the club's decision to let bench coach Jackie Moore go.
- The Yankees appear to be on the verge of shaking up their scouting and player development departments.
Central Notes: Indians, Reds, Cards, Cubs, Bucs, Tigers
Baseball's general managers are expected to address the topic of home plate collisions at their meetings in November, Buster Olney of ESPN reports, and some sources believe a rule change could come quickly. "At this point, I don't know who would argue to keep it, or what their argument would be," a team official speaking with Olney said. Team sources said they expect baseball to adopt a rule that would guarantee the baserunner an avenue to the plate, but disallow him from targeting the catcher — the same regulation that's in place at all levels of the game below the majors. Here's the latest from the AL and NL central divisions as Detroit and Boston battle for the AL pennant:
- Paul Hoynes of The Plain Dealer ran through queries from Indians fans in a new column, ruling out Bartolo Colon as an option for the Tribe's rotation.
- Longtime Reds writer Hal McCoy, who continues to keep a blog for the Dayton Daily News, examined where things went wrong between the Reds and Brandon Phillips. The team is reportedly shopping the second baseman, and the Braves may be interested.
- Tyler Kepner of The New York Times attempted to pin down the reasons behind the Cardinals' sustained run of success, noting the front office's knack for player development.
- Rick Renteria has become "the clear-cut favorite" among candidates for the Cubs' manager job, Bob Nightengale of USA Today tweets, reporting that support for the Padres bench coach is "staggering."
- Travis Sawchik of the Pittsburgh Tribune-Review assessed the Pirates' chances of carrying their 2013 success into next season. While the club's young core and farm system are reasons for optimism, several of 2013's key contributors may be lost to free agency in the coming years, and the team could be hampered by its middling revenue streams, Sawchik writes.
- Tigers GM Dave Dombrowski may look to inject some speed into his club's lineup this offseason, Drew Sharp of the Detroit Free Press reports.
Quick Hits: Cardinals, Lovullo, McCann, Fister
The Cardinals clinched the 19th NL pennant in franchise history (and fourth in the last 10 seasons) with tonight's 9-0 rout of the Dodgers in Game Six of the NLCS. Carlos Beltran continued his postseason dominance with a 3-for-4 night while NLCS MVP Michael Wacha threw seven shutout innings of two-hit ball to continue his stunning late-season run. Here are some notes from around the league…
- The Cardinals' peerless developmental system has unearthed many late-round draft picks who are currently playing key roles for the NL champions, CBS Sports' Jon Heyman writes, as former St. Louis scouting director (and current Astros GM) Jeff Luhnow describes how the club found some of those unheralded players. Heyman notes that the Cards' success is a good sign for the Astros, who hope Luhnow can duplicate that farm system in Houston.
- The Cubs are interested in interviewing Red Sox bench coach Torey Lovullo for their manager position, sources tell Patrick Mooney and Dan Hayes of CSN Chicago. Lovullo shares some Boston ties with Theo Epstein, as Lovullo managed the Triple-A Pawtucket Red Sox in 2010. Lovullo has been linked to managerial jobs in the past and was cited as a candidate for the Mariners job earlier today.
- If Braves catcher Brian McCann receives a $100MM contract in free agency, ESPN's Dan Szymborski (Insider subscription required) projects that such a contract will be an albatross for the signing team.
- Doug Fister is the best candidate for a multiyear extension from the Tigers this offseason, Drew Sharp of the Detroit Free Press opines. Sharp suggests that the Tigers should offer Fister a four-year, $40MM deal but I'd argue that such a contract would be very team-friendly. MLBTR's Matt Swartz projects Fister will earn $6.9MM in his second year of arbitration eligibility this winter, so he could hit the $10MM average annual value threshold through arbitration alone in the 2014-15 offseason. If Fister keeps pitching as he has since coming to Detroit, it will cost much more to buy out two free agent years.
- The Dodgers need to make five moves, ESPN's Jim Bowden writes, in order to improve themselves in 2014 and perhaps take the next step into the World Series.
- Also from Bowden, he lists four of the so-called "immovable" contracts in baseball have at least a somewhat likely possibility of being traded, while also citing five contracts that are indeed virtually impossible to be moved. ESPN Insider subscriptions are required to read these two Bowden pieces.
Minor Moves: Rays, Cubs, Purcey, Okajima
We'll keep track of today's minor moves here..
- Infielder Ryan Roberts, 1B/OF Shelley Duncan, outfielder Jason Bourgeois and right-hander J.D. Martin have all elected to become free agents, MLBDailyDish.com's Chris Cotillo reports (Twitter links). All four players were outrighted off the Rays' roster earlier this season.
- Also from Cotillo (Twitter links), catcher J.C. Boscan and outfielder Darnell McDonald have elected to become free agents. Both players were outrighted off the Cubs' 40-man roster last week.
- The White Sox announced they have outrighted David Purcey to Triple-A Charlotte. Purcey, 31, posted a 2.13 ERA with 8.2 K/9 and 6.0 BB/9 in 24 relief appearances. The club's 40-man roster is now at 36. Purcey was one of Chicago's arbitration eligible players this winter.
- Left-hander Hideki Okajima and right-hander Chris Resop have elected free agency from the Athletics, according to Matt Eddy of Baseball America (Twitter link). Okajima, 38 in December, pitched in five big league games for the A's but spent the bulk of the year in Triple-A where he posted a 4.22 ERA with 9.5 K/9 and 1.5 BB/9 in 37 appearances. Resop, 31 in November, also spent the lion's share of the year in Triple-A and had a 6.81 ERA with 7.3 K/9 and 3.3 BB/9.
- Reds right-hander Jose Arredondo, Angels right-hander Robert Coello, and Marlins third baseman Gil Velazquez have elected free agency under Article XX(D), according to Eddy (via Twitter). Arredondo struggled at the Triple-A level in 2013, posting a 5.87 ERA with 10.4 K/9 and 6.5 BB/9. Coello made 16 big league relief appearances in 2013 and put up a 3.71 ERA with 12.2 K/9 and 4.2 BB/9.
- At Baseball America, Eddy has the full list of the past week's minor league transactions.
MLBTR's Mark Polishuk also contributed to this post