Heyman’s Latest: Howard, Tillman, Price, Cespedes, Astros
In his latest Inside Baseball column, Jon Heyman of CBS Sports kicks off by discussing Ryan Howard‘s increased trade value. Howard is hitting .256/.298/.519 with 10 homers this season, and while the OBP is lackluster, he’s performed particularly well of late, hitting .307/.340/.602 with six homers this month (a .389 BABIP on the month, though, is heavily influencing those numbers). The Phils were willing to pay down $35MM or so of Howard’s remaining contract this offseason, and doing so would make him a roughly $10MM player this season and next. While Heyman notes that might be seen as a fair price, he adds that some scouts and executives will want to see more sustained production before considering a move, which strikes me as more than reasonable; I doubt three weeks of hot hitting have transformed him from albatross into hot commodity. The Orioles, Royals and Rays all discussed Howard with the Phillies this offseason but went different directions, and Heyman looks at those three teams as well as five others in determining if there’s a fit to be made. Howard received 10-and-5 rights on May 2, however, allowing him to veto any deal. And while many reports have indicated it won’t get in the way of a trade, Heyman hears that Howard is happier in Philadelphia now than he was over the winter and wonders if he might require some kind of incentive to waive those rights.
Some more highlights from a lengthy column …
- The Orioles never really came close to reaching an extension with starter Chris Tillman this spring, and talks are on hold at present. The 27-year-old has scuffled early this year with a 5.59 ERA over 48 1/3 innings.
- David Robertson could have taken home even more than the $46MM promised to him by the White Sox, says Heyman, as an unnamed team offered him more this winter. That provides yet more reason to believe that plenty of teams are still willing to pay top dollar for premium relievers.
- While the Tigers are very interested in attempting to retain Yoenis Cespedes beyond the current year, Heyman says that all signs point to him reaching free agency. Detroit can, of course, pursue him on the open market, but sources tell Heyman that Cespedes is unlikely to agree to an extension.
- Likewise, the Tigers don’t appear to have much hope of an extension with ace David Price, and Heyman says they “aren’t overwhelmingly confident” that he’ll be back. Detroit’s front office believes that Price will look to top Max Scherzer‘s contract.
- The Astros are sorting through many pitching acquisition possibilities, and Aaron Harang of the Phillies has “at least been discussed” by the club. Fellow Philadelphia starter Cole Hamels may come with too much contract for Houston, but Heyman reports that the club does see Reds free agent-to-be Johnny Cueto as a possibility.
- While Brewers GM Doug Melvin has given signals that he’s ready to sell early, owner Mark Attanasio may prefer the club hold off until at least the upcoming draft. While PR considerations seem to be a factor, that may be the best strategy anyway; the team could still get out ahead of the market, while allowing it to mature somewhat before acting.
- Be sure to check out the piece for more interesting items around the league.
Sanchez’s Latest: Martinez, Fox, Arroyo
Just over two weeks remain in the current international signing period, which will come to a close on June 15. Following that will be a roughly two-week dead period before July 2 marks the kickoff of the the 2015-16 international prospect signing period. MLB.com’s Jesse Sanchez recently penned a piece looking at some changes at the top of the international signing class, and he also has a second piece centering around a particularly interesting player in the upcoming June draft. A few highlights…
- Cuban prospects Eddy Julio Martinez and Yadier Alvarez have vaulted to the top of the upcoming July 2 class of international prospects, joining Bahamian shortstop Lucius Fox in Sanchez’s Top 3 prospects. Martinez is technically eligible to sign during the current period, Sanchez notes, though a deal would have to come together quickly in order for that to become a reality. Some scouts have made the lofty comparison of a young Andruw Jones when evaluating the 20-year-old Martinez, according to Sanchez. He lists the Cubs, Yankees, Angels, Blue Jays, Nationals, Rockies, Tigers, Dodgers, Giants, Reds and White Sox as teams that have shown interest in Martinez. It should be noted that the Angels and Yankees would only be able to sign Martinez in the current signing period, as they incurred maximum penalties in 2014-15 for soaring past their allotted bonus pool and will be unable to sign a player for more than $300K. The Cubs, on the other hand, are ineligible to sign him during this period but could do so in the 2015-16 period, as their penalty for exceeding their 2013-14 bonus pool will then have been served. The Dodgers are the favorite to sign Alvarez — Fangraphs’ Kiley McDaniel has previously reported that they’re believed to have an agreement worth as much as $16MM waiting to become official after July 2 — and have been aggressive on the Cuban market, adding Pablo Fernandez and Hector Olivera for a combined sum worth more than $70MM.
- The Dodgers, Rangers, Reds, and Giants are among the teams most frequently connected to the 18-year-old Fox, Sanchez hears. McDaniel reported a little over a month ago that Fox had been declared a free agent and could sign in the upcoming period, and he’s since noted that the Cubs, Dodgers and Rangers were serious players for Fox. Fox tells Sanchez that he’s added about 15 pounds of muscle in the past year, which he feels has dramatically improved his game since appearing in the Perfect Game and East Coast Pro showcases last year. (Fox attended American Heritage High School in Florida for two years before returning home to the Bahamas and petitioned to be declared an international free agent.)
- In the second piece linked above, Sanchez looks at the curious case of right-hander Octavio Arroyo, who was expected to be selected out of San Diego’s San Ysidro High School somewhere in rounds 15-20 in the June draft. However, Arroyo was recently deported to Tijuana, as his family incorrectly filled out his paperwork when moving him to the United States to live with his grandparents, both of whom are United States citizens. “The plan was for my grandparents to adopt me and get my paperwork, my residency,” Arroyo told Sanchez. “But I was denied. I don’t know why. I was told we filled out the paperwork wrong. We tried for three years, but I never got it.” Arroyo crossed the U.S./Mexico border multiple times while knowing that his paperwork had been rejected, and he was detained and deported in an attempt this spring. He’s still, however, eligible for the draft, but it’s uncertain whether or not he’ll be granted a work visa by the U.S. government. If no team selects him, Arroyo could sign as an undrafted free agent or sign with a Mexican League club, who could then sell his rights to a Major League team, Sanchez writes.
AL Notes: Konerko, Happ, Farrell
White Sox great Paul Konerko‘s number will be retired today, as Bruce Levine of CBSChicago.com notes. Since retiring last season, Konerko says, he has watched the White Sox on occasion but hasn’t spent much time watching baseball. He did, however, attend Wayne Gretzky’s fantasy hockey camp, and he has three young children. “A lot of guys I talked to said, ‘Listen, you have to find things to do,'” says Konerko. “When you go home, they said, ‘You can only play so much golf.’ I definitely have a lot of stuff going on to keep me sharp.” Here’s more from the American League.
- Of all the players who left the Blue Jays last winter, the one who would have helped the team the most is, improbably, J.A. Happ, Brendan Kennedy of TheStar.com writes. The Jays’ rotation has struggled this season, while Happ has produced a 3.61 ERA with 7.2 K/9 and 2.1 BB/9 for the Mariners. Happ had frequently been little more than a contingency plan in Toronto. “They must have felt like they had better options,” says Happ. “I just tried to take advantage of the opportunities when I got them, but I was definitely trying to fight for my cause.”
- The Red Sox should at least consider firing John Farrell, writes Christopher Smith of MassLive.com. Since winning a World Series with the Red Sox in 2013, Farrell has a .441 winning percentage as manager, and this year’s team is filled with expensive but struggling veterans. Nonetheless, the AL East hasn’t been a strong division this year, and the Red Sox could still win it. Smith suggests that might be difficult, though, if the Red Sox don’t dramatically improve or make changes.
Dodgers Acquire Eric Surkamp From White Sox
The Dodgers have dealt for lefty reliever Eric Surkamp from the White Sox, Tim Brown of Yahoo Sports reports on Twitter. Chicago has acquired righty Blake Smith in the deal, Ken Gurnick of MLB.com tweets.
Surkamp, 27, has not found much big league success over the years; he owns a 6.20 ERA with 5.5 K/9 against 5.0 BB/9 over 53 2/3 career innings. That included a middling output last year in the White Sox bullpen, which he joined after spending most of his career as a starter in the Giants organization.
Surkamp passed through waivers this spring, but has been rather excellent since. Over 25 2/3 Triple-A innings (in just 11 appearances, including one start), he has fanned 30 hitters while walking only nine and permitting eight earned runs.
For Los Angeles, the move represents yet another pitching depth move. Presumably, Surkamp will continue in a relief capacity, though his long history as a starter makes him at least a spot option in the rotation.
Smith, also 27, had been working at Double-A for the L.A. organization. Only recently converted from an outfielder to a reliever, Smith has racked up 16 2/3 innings of 1.62 ERA ball with 8.6 K/9 against 4.9 BB/9 this year in Tulsa.
Amateur Notes: Draft, Fulmer, Kolek, Martinez
The game of baseball is struggling to maintain youth participation, writes Brian Costa of the Wall Street Journal, who says that the trend poses real concerns for an otherwise thriving sport. Newly-minted commissioner Rob Manfred has honed in on the issue since taking office, saying that “the biggest predictor of fan avidity as an adult is whether you played the game.” It’s a fascinating read that’s well worth your time.
Let’s check in on some amateur notes from around the game:
- ESPN.com’s Keith Law (Insider link) posts his first mock draft as June 8th draws near. While acknowledging that it is still early, Law predicts that the Diamondbacks will take Vanderbilt shortstop Dansby Swanson with the first overall pick while the Astros will add LSU shortstop Alex Bregman and high school outfielder Kyle Tucker with the second and fifth picks. Law adds that he does not expect Vandy righty Carson Fulmer to make it past the White Sox with the eighth pick.
- Speaking of Fulmer, Kiley McDaniel of Fangraphs suggests that he represents a relatively rare “Black Swan” option in this year’s draft. You’ll need to read the piece to understand the concept, but McDaniel uses that classification for a subset of players that have been somewhat underappreciated by traditional player assessment tools: “small, right-handed, major-college starting pitchers with little to no injury history and a good performance record.”
- The antithesis of the Black Swan pitcher, perhaps, is the high school power arm, and the Marlins took an enticing one last year in Tyler Kolek. Josh Norris of Baseball America checks in on the 2014 second overall selection, who the club chose over Carlos Rodon. Now featuring an increasingly promising curve, the 19-year-old is said to be showing signs of developing into the top-of-the-rotation starter that Miami dreamed of when it chose him. Of course, his stat line has yet to reflect that promise, and he has a long way to go.
- The White Sox join a growing list of clubs with “serious interest” in Cuban outfielder Eddy Julio Martinez, MLB.com’s Jesse Sanchez tweets. The 20-year-old is free to sign at any time, though it’s possible he could wait until the next July 2 period kicks off this summer.
- Agent Joshua Kusnick discussed the draft from an advisor’s perspective in a podcast with Ryan Sullivan (draft talk begins around the 24:00 mark), sharing his thoughts on the slotting system and the possibility of a worldwide draft, among other issues.
Minor Moves: White Sox Outright Raul Fernandez
Here are Sunday’s minor moves from around MLB:
- The White Sox have outrighted right-hander Raul Fernandez to Double-A Birmingham, tweets Dan Hayes of CSNChicago.com. The White Sox claimed Fernandez on waivers from the Rockies last July. The 24-year-old ranked as Colorado’s No. 22 prospect heading into 2014, according to Baseball America, touting the converted catcher’s power arm, including a fastball which touches 99 mph. Fernandez has struggled in his first crack at the Double-A level this season pitching to a 7.45 ERA with 10.2 K/9 and 3.3 BB/9 in 13 appearances out of the bullpen (19 1/3 innings). The outright creates an opening on the White Sox’s 40-man roster, which now stands at 39.
- Per MLBTR’s DFA Tracker, Erik Cordier (Giants), Kyuji Fujikawa (Rangers), Nick Masset (Marlins), Bruce Chen (Indians), Stolmy Pimentel (Pirates), and Kevin Gregg (Reds) remain in DFA limbo.
AL Central Notes: Johnson, Aviles, Lindor, Avila
The White Sox yesterday made the decision to option second baseman Micah Johnson to Triple-A, recalling fellow infielder Carlos Sanchez to fill his spot on the roster and on the diamond. The 22-year-old Sanchez hit .344/.368/.466 in 137 plate appearances at Triple-A this season, whereas Johnson slashed a mere .270/.333/.297 in the Majors. Johnson is the more highly regarded prospect of the two, but as MLB.com’s Scott Merkin writes, GM Rick Hahn said he considers the demotion a “minor setback on the path to what we believe will be a successful big league career.” Second base has been one of many weak spots for the White Sox this season — a subject that Jeff Todd and I discussed in running through a surprising AL Central division on the latest MLBTR Podcast.
Here’s more from the AL Central…
- Thoughts and prayers go out to Indians utility man Mike Aviles who, as Cleveland.com’s Zack Meisel writes, learned last week that his four-year-old daughter has been diagnosed with leukemia. Manager Terry Francona said that it’s possible Aviles will join the team this weekend. However, he could also be placed on the restricted list, thereby allowing him to take as much time as he needs to be with his family. That move would allow the club to add another player to the 25-man roster in Aviles’ place. We at MLBTR wish Aviles and his family the best in an unfathomably difficult time.
- In a second article, Meisel breaks down the Indians‘ shortstop situation, noting that the team is in a difficult place. Cleveland had hoped that the issue of when to promote top prospect Francisco Lindor would be a challenge due to the strong play of Jose Ramirez. Instead, however, it’s a challenge because Ramirez is struggling so badly. As Meisel notes, the Indians almost certainly would like to keep Lindor in Triple-A until mid-to-late June in order to minimize the chance of him achieving Super Two status. However, the present roster is lacking alternatives. Aviles could replace him once he is ready to rejoin the roster, but the other primary alternative, Zach Walters has struggled quite a bit at the plate since being acquired by Cleveland.
- Tigers catcher Alex Avila is opting not to undergo surgery to repair the knee injury that has landed him on the disabled list, reports Anthony Fenech of the Detroit Free Press. According to Avila, multiple doctors suggested that he could potentially use a rest and rehab program to avoid surgery and get back on the field sooner than the expected 4-6 weeks he’d have missed with arthroscopic surgery. Avila is on the disabled list with a “loose body” in his knee, but doctors now believe that the abnormality in his knee is not actually loose. “They’re not convinced that it’s a loose body,” said manager Brad Ausmus. “There’s something in there, but they’re not convinced that it’s loose.” Avila is due to hit free agency following the 2015 season.
MLBTR Podcast: The Unpredictable AL Central
Jeff and MLBTR colleague Steve Adams look at every team in the AL Central, running down how their respective starts to the season — good and bad — could shape their activity over the summer.
Click here to subscribe to the podcast on iTunes, and please leave a review! The podcast is also available via Stitcher at this link.
The MLB Trade Rumors Podcast runs weekly on Thursday afternoons.
Jose Abreu Joins Relativity Sports
White Sox first baseman Jose Abreu has changed agents and will now be represented by Diego Bentz and Fern Cuza of Relativity Baseball, according to Yahoo’s Jeff Passan (Twitter link).
As Passan notes, Abreu’s contract allows him to opt for arbitration once eligible, in lieu of his contract’s remaining guaranteed salaries. That would come after the 2016 season, giving Abreu the ability to perhaps out earn the $34MM he is guaranteed over the final three years of his deal ($10.5MM in 2017, $11.5MM in 2018 and $12MM in 2019). Those salaries represent the final three years of what was a then-record-setting six-year, $68MM contract signed by Abreu after he defected from Cuba in the 2013-14 offseason. (Rusney Castillo‘s seven-year, $72.5MM contract with the Red Sox has since eclipsed Abreu’s mark as the largest ever for a Cuban defector, while Yasmany Tomas‘ six-year, $68.5MM deal has also slightly topped Abreu’s mark.)
Abreu, formerly a client of Praver/Shapiro, was the unanimous American League Rookie of the Year in 2014 after a breathtaking debut in which he batted .317/.383/.581 with 36 homers despite a brief stint on the 15-day disabled list. Now 28 years old, the Cuban-born phenom is off to a strong, albeit less impressive start to his sophomore campaign, as he’s slashed .288/.349/.500 as of Wednesday morning.
Relativity, formerly known as SFX, is one of the larger agencies in the industry and represents a vast number of Major Leaguers, including Nelson Cruz, Paul Goldschmidt, Madison Bumgarner, Ubaldo Jimenez, Justin Morneau and David Ortiz. The White Sox, in particular, have a large number of Relativity clients, including Zach Duke, Adam LaRoche, Jesse Crain and the recently outrighted Kyle Drabek.
Abreu’s change in representation has been noted in MLBTR’s Agency Database, which contains agent information on more than 2,000 Major League and Minor League players. If you see any notable errors or omissions, please don’t hesitate to let us know via email: mlbtrdatabase@gmail.com.
Minor Moves: Brignac, Kensing, Forsythe, Beltre
Here are today’s minor moves:
- Infielder Reid Brignac has accepted the Marlins‘ assignment to Triple-A, SB Nation’s Chris Cotillo tweets. Brignac could instead have elected free agency upon being outrighted. The 29-year-old produced a hit and three walks in 17 MLB turns at bat this year. He owns a .219/.266/.310 slash over 922 career plate appearances at the major league level.
- Righty Logan Kensing has signed a minor league deal with the Mariners, the club announced. Kensing, 32, worked to a 3.58 ERA last year in 88 frames at Triple-A Tacoma, registering 8.1 K/9 against 3.4 BB/9. Despite a single appearance with the Rockies in 2013, Kensing has not seen regular big league action since back in 2009. All said, he owns a 5.79 earned run average over his 161 2/3 innings in the majors.
- Catcher Blake Forsythe is headed from the Athletics to the Phillies via trade, per Nashville Sounds broadcaster Jeff Hem (via Twitter; h/t Matt Rappa of Philliedelphia.com). The 25-year-old reached the Triple-A level for the first time this year after spending each of the last two seasons at the Double-A level with the Mets and then A’s organizations. He figures to provide organizational depth behind the dish for a club that is proceeding cautiously with former top prospect Tommy Joseph, who is being monitored for concussion symptoms.
- The White Sox have released outfielder Engel Beltre, according to a tweet from Triple-A Charlotte. Beltre, 25, signed a minor league deal with Chicago over the winter. He had risen to the major league level in 2013, earning 42 plate appearances after putting up solid-enough numbers (for a speedy center fielder) in the upper minors in 2012-13. But Beltre was sidetracked by a broken leg last year, and was off to a slow start (.234/.268/.312) at Charlotte.