Reds Designate John Lamb, Select Contract Of Ariel Hernandez
The Reds announced today that they’ve designated left-hander John Lamb for assignment and selected the contract of right-hander Ariel Hernandez. Lamb recently underwent his second back surgery in the past 10 months, giving him a chance to clear waivers.
Originally acquired from the Royals alongside Brandon Finnegan and Cody Reed (in exchange for Johnny Cueto), the 26-year-old Lamb has struggled in both of his two seasons with the Reds. Injuries have long plagued the once vaunted pitching prospect, as he also underwent Tommy John surgery as a minor leaguer. There was a time when both Baseball America and Baseball Prospectus regarded Lamb as one of baseball’s top 20 prospects, but it’s now been five years since he received that distinction. In 119 2/3 innings as a Major Leaguer, all with the Reds, Lamb has a 6.17 ERA, although his 110-to-50 K/BB ratio is somewhat encouraging. Home runs have been Lamb’s primary downfall, as he’s yielded 1.65 HR/9 to this point in his big league career.
As for Hernandez, the 24-year-old Dominican righty was originally signed by the Giants but ultimately wound up pitching in independent ball in 2015 before the D-backs gave him another chance. While Hernandez posted just a 6.04 ERA in 22 1/3 innings in the Arizona system in 2015, the Reds saw something they liked and picked him up in the minor league phase of the Rule 5 Draft and were rewarded for that show of faith. While Hernandez was old to be pitching in the Class-A Midwest League and Class-A Advanced Florida State League, the combined 2.18 ERA, 10.7 K/9 rate and 54.6 percent ground-ball rate he compiled are nonetheless impressive. Control appears to be an issue, as he did average 5.7 walks per nine innings. Scouting reports on the right-hander are scarce, though Baseball America did list him as a “rising” prospect in the Cincinnati system in July, noting that he’s still “way too wild” but possesses one of baseball’s best fastball/curveball combos and has drawn some 80 grades from scouts on both pitches (BA subscription required and recommended).
NL Central Notes: Schebler, Cora, Cardinals
As the Cubs kick off their first World Series game in 71 years, here’s a look around the division at some of the teams that will be chasing them next season…
- Scott Schebler appears to have the inside track on the Reds‘ right field job next year, Mark Sheldon of MLB.com writes. The 26-year-old bounced back after some early struggles and showed enough promise to think he’s deserving of a larger opportunity. Acquired in last winter’s Todd Frazier trade, Schebler hit .265/.330/.432 in 282 plate appearances with the Reds, tallying nine homers and a dozen doubles in that limited exposure. MLBTR’s Jason Martinez looked at the subject in his recent piece previewing the Cincinnati offseason, suggesting that the organization give him a shot while also looking to bring in some competition. Top prospect Jesse Winker could eventually push for a corner outfield spot in the Majors as well, although the 23-year-old’s power numbers dipped in Triple-A this season.
- The Pirates are set to name Joey Cora as their new third base coach, reports Cory Giger of the Altoona Mirror (Twitter link). Cora managed Pittsburgh’s Double-A affiliate in Altoona this season and has several years of experience as a Major League bench coach and third base coach. He’ll replace Rick Sofield, who served as Pittsburgh’s third base coach from 2013-16 but was fired over the weekend, according to a club announcement. Cora, like his younger brother Alex, enjoyed a lengthy Major League career as an infielder and has previously been considered for managerial vacancies at the Major League level.
- MLB.com’s Jenifer Langosch tackles a number of offseason questions in her latest Cardinals inbox piece, noting that despite a lackluster performance from the pitching staff this season, a significant addition seems unlikely. The free-agent market is, as has been well-documented, stunningly thin in terms of quality arms. And as far as the trade market is concerned, the team likely feels satisfied enough with its depth that it won’t feel compelled to meet the escalated asking prices that will perpetuate the trade market for rotation help. Langosch also looks at how the Cards stack up with the Rockies in potential trades and again emphasizes that the team is likely to focus on upgrading its up-the-middle defense this winter.
Reds’ John Lamb Undergoes Back Surgery
The Reds announced to reporters today that left-hander John Lamb has surgery to repair a herniated lumbar disk in his back (via MLB.com’s Mark Sheldon, on Twitter). A specific timeline for Lamb’s recovery isn’t clear, but the 26-year-old is not expected to be ready for the start of the 2017 season, per the announcement.
This will mark the second straight offseason in which Lamb, who was acquired in the July 2015 Johnny Cueto blockbuster with the Royals, has undergone back surgery. He opened the 2015 campaign on the DL following a back operation as well, though that procedure was apparently more minor, as it came in December 2015 and Lamb was sent on a rehab assignment in mid-April before making his 2016 debut on May 3.
Lamb was hardly a lock to break camp in the Cincinnati rotation after struggling to a 6.43 ERA through 70 innings with the Reds in 2016 and a 5.80 ERA in 49 2/3 inning following the trade in 2015. Those numbers represent the entirety of Lamb’s big league efforts to this point, so he’d have had to earn his spot on the roster with a big showing in Spring Training. However, there’s reason to believe that he could have done just that. The former fifth-round pick was once heralded as one of the best overall pitching prospects not only in the Royals’ minor league ranks but in all of Major League Baseball. Prior to the 2011 season (two and a half years after he was drafted), Baseball America rated Lamb as the No. 18 prospect in the game, while Baseball Prospectus ranked him an even more aggressive 11th overall. Tommy John surgery slowed his career along the way, however, costing Lamb nearly all of the 2011-12 seasons.
Lamb struggled in 29 1/3 innings at the Triple-A level in 2016 but tossed just 29 1/3 innings in his time there, so it’s tough to glean much of a meaningful impression from that stretch. He has a career ERA of 3.75 in 295 innings in Triple-A, though, including a brilliant stretch of 111 1/3 innings last season, during which he posted a 2.67 ERA with 9.5 K/9 against 2.9 BB/9.
If and when Lamb is ready to return from the disabled list in 2017, the Reds will quickly face a decision on him. The southpaw is out of minor league options, so if they’re going to activate him from the disabled list, he’ll need to be added directly to the active roster, as he can’t be sent to the minors without first being exposed to outright waivers.
Reds Agree To New 15-Year Television Contract
The Reds and FOX Sports Ohio have agreed to a 15-year extension of the current television contract, which will now run through the 2032 season, reports Zach Buchanan of the Cincinnati Enquirer. Their current contract had been set to expire at the end of the 2017 campaign.
Terms of the deal weren’t disclosed, but Reds COO Phil Castellini stated Wednesday that the extension will provide the Reds with a “nice increase” in their yearly rights fees, per Buchanan, which currently pay the team about $30MM annually. The contract also comes with an unspecified equity stake in the network for the Reds. However, Castellini also indicated that the Reds’ new television contract is still a small-market deal relative to monster contracts signed by other teams in recent years. The D-backs and Cardinals, for instance, each signed new television contracts that were valued at more than a billion dollars over the past three years (1.5 billion in Arizona’s case).
As Buchanan points out, though, the fact that Castellini somewhat downplayed the size of the deal doesn’t mean it can’t afford the team with a substantial increase. The Padres, he observes, play in the 28th-ranked U.S. television market but still landed a 20-year television contract worth one billion dollars back in 2012. The Reds, who play in the 34th-ranked market, likely fall shy of that deal but could still see a marked uptick in yearly television rights fees.
Castellini notes that the dip in the team’s attendance (and, subsequently, overall revenue) impacted the talks somewhat, but he stressed that all of the added revenue will go toward improving the on-field product. “…[A]s you all know, we budget this team to break even,” the COO explained. “We don’t pull any money out of the franchise. So we will continue to reinvest all topline revenues back into the product, and we define the product as player development, scouting and the major-league payroll, everything that goes into what (general manager) Dick (Williams) does to put the team on the field as well as the game-day experience at Great American Ball Park.”
Reds fans probably shouldn’t anticipate an immediate hike in the payroll, however. For starters, the team is still in the midst of a rebuilding effort that began in 2015, and it’s unlikely that they’ll make a large splash on the free-agent market (especially in a weak year for free agency). Secondly, as has been the case with other television contracts around the game, the increases in revenue are built in gradually as opposed to one mammoth leap in the first year of the deal. Specific details on the nature of those increases remains unclear, but it’s worth noting that the Reds haven’t exactly operated like many other small-market teams around the game. Cincinnati, for instance, averaged a $112.1MM payroll from 2013-15 and signed players like Joey Votto, Brandon Phillips and Homer Bailey to significant contract extensions (albeit with varying levels of success). The team has also been aggressive on the international market at times, signing Aroldis Chapman to a six-year, $30MM contract as a free agent that proved to be one of the game’s great bargains over the life of the pact. Likewise, Cincinnati inked right-hander Raisel Iglesias to a seven-year, $27MM contract that looks like a promising investment to this point as well. Currently, the Reds project to have an $88.5MM payroll on Opening Day next year, though that figure will of course change due to their offseason maneuverings.
Per Buchanan’s report, the Reds looked into the possibility of establishing and operating their own regional sports network, but it was deemed too difficult to get off the ground, specifically due to potential difficulties in negotiating distribution fees with cable providers and ensuring that the network would be accessible enough for fans.
Minor MLB Transactions: 10/18/16
Here are the latest minor moves, via Baseball America’s Matt Eddy unless otherwise noted:
- The Braves re-signed catcher Blake Lalli after recently outrighting him. Lalli, 33, received a brief MLB cameo for the first time in quite a while, but hasn’t spend much time in the majors and figures to remain in the upper minors next year. He carries a .265/.316/.376 batting line over parts of five seasons at Triple-A.
- Meanwhile, the Braves outrighted 26-year-old lefties Matt Marksberry and Andrew McKirahan as well as shortstop Daniel Castro. Marksberry has made 35 appearances over the last two seasons, posting a composite 5.06 ERA, though he was effective in 42 2/2 frames in the upper minors last year, carrying a 2.32 ERA with 8.2 K/9 against 3.6 BB/9. McKirahan spent the year recovering from Tommy John surgery. As for Castro, 23, the last two years have come with a fair amount of major league opportunities, but his bat hasn’t been up to the task. Over 239 total plate appearances, he has hit just .217/.250/.265.
- The Pirates re-signed righty Casey Sadler to a minor league deal. Sadler, 26, made a nice spot start in 2016 but spent most of the year working at Triple-A. He wasn’t able to repeat his quality earned run numbers from the prior two seasons in the upper minors, pitching to a 4.22 ERA with 5.3 K/9 and 2.8 BB/9 over 81 frames in 13 starts.
- Young Mexican third baseman/catcher Victor Ruiz is heading to the Reds from the Tijuana Toros, Cincinnati announced. Reds director of international scouting Tony Arias says that Ruiz has been on Cinci’s radar for some time, praising the youngster’s hitting ability, his “very good hands and a good throwing arm,” and also his “leadership and competitive qualities.”
Rule 5 Roundup
We’re just a few months away from this winter’s Rule 5 draft, so it makes sense to take a look back and see how things shook out from the 2015 selections. Several organizations found useful players, even if the most recent class didn’t include an Odubel Herrera-esque breakout sensation. Some of the most recent draftees have probably locked up MLB jobs again for 2017, though others who stuck on a major league roster all year may head back to the minors for further development. (Once a player’s permanent control rights have been secured, his new organization is free to utilize optional assignments as usual for future years.)
Here’s a roundup of the 2015 draft class with the 2016 season in the books:
Keepers
- Tyler Goeddel, OF, kept by Phillies from Rays: The 23-year-old struggled with the aggressive move to the big leagues, carrying a .192/.258/.291 batting line in 234 trips to the plate, but showed enough for the rebuilding Phillies to hold onto him all year long.
- Luis Perdomo, RHP, kept by Padres (via Rockies) from Cardinals: It didn’t look good early for Perdomo, but he showed better after moving to the rotation and ended with a rather promising 4.85 ERA over twenty starts. Though he struggled to contain the long ball, and only struck out 6.4 per nine, Perdomo sported a nifty 59.0% groundball rate on the year.
- Joey Rickard, OF, kept by Orioles from Rays: After opening the year with a bang, Rickard faded to a .268/.319/.377 batting line on the year but held his roster spot in Baltimore. He ended the season on the DL with a thumb injury, though, and may end up at Triple-A for some added seasoning.
- Joe Biagini, RHP, kept by Blue Jays from Giants: The only Rule 5 pick to appear in the postseason, Biagini was a great find for Toronto. He ended with 67 2/3 innings of 3.06 ERA pitching, with 8.2 K/9 and 2.5 BB/9, and now looks like a potential fixture in the Jays’ relief corps.
- Matthew Bowman, RHP, kept by Cardinals from Mets: Bowman rounds out a trio of impressive relievers. He contributed 67 2/3 innings with a 3.46 ERA and 6.9 BB/9 against 2.7 BB/9 to go with a monster 61.7% groundball rate.
Retained By Other Means
- Deolis Guerra, RHP, re-signed by Angels (who selected him from Pirates) after being outrighted: Guerra was in an unusual spot since he had previously been outrighted off of the Bucs’ 40-man roster when he was selected, meaning he didn’t need to be offered back. Los Angeles removed him from the major league roster and then brought him back on a minor league deal, ultimately selecting his contract. Though he was later designated and outrighted by the Halos, Guerra again returned and largely thrived at the major league level, contributing 53 1/3 much-needed pen frames with a 3.21 ERA on the back of 6.1 K/9 against just 1.2 BB/9.
- Jabari Blash, OF, acquired by Padres (who acquired Rule 5 rights from Athletics) from Mariners: Blash’s intriguing tools weren’t quite ready for the majors, but San Diego struck a deal to hold onto him and was surely impressed with his showing at Triple-A. In his 229 plate appearances there, Blash swatted 11 home runs but — more importantly — carried a .415 OBP with a much-improved 66:41 K/BB ratio.
- Ji-Man Choi, 1B, outrighted by Angels after Orioles declined return: The 25-year-old scuffled in the bigs but was rather impressive at the highest level of the minors, where he walked nearly as often as he struck out and put up a .346/.434/.527 slash with five home runs in 227 plate appearances.
Returned
- Jake Cave, OF, returned from Reds to Yankees: After failing to crack Cinci’s roster out of camp, Cave impressed at Double-A but slowed at the highest level of the minors (.261/.323/.401 in 354 plate appearances) upon his return to the New York organization.
- Evan Rutckyj, LHP, returned from Braves to Yankees: Sent back late in camp, the 24-year-old struggled in limited action on the Yanks’ farm after missing most of the season with elbow issues.
- Josh Martin, RHP, returned from Padres to Indians: In his first attempt at Triple-A, Martin posted 66 frames of 3.55 ERA pitching with 8.2 K/9 against 3.1 BB/9.
- Daniel Stumpf, LHP, returned from Phillies to Royals: Slowed by a PED suspension, Stumpf was bombed in a brief MLB stint with the Phils but dominated at Double-A upon his return to K.C., posting a 2.11 ERA with 11.0 K/9 and 1.7 BB/9 in 21 1/3 innings.
- Chris O’Grady, LHP, returned from Reds to Angels: Sent back in late March, O’Grady compiled a 3.48 ERA over 95 2/3 innings in the upper minors, though he performed much better as a Double-A starter than he did as a Triple-A reliever.
- Zack Jones, RHP, returned from Brewers to Twins: The 25-year-old was out with a shoulder injury for most of the year, and ended up being sent back to Minnesota in late June, but has shown swing-and-miss stuff when healthy.
- Blake Smith, RHP, returned from Padres to White Sox: Smith ended up making a brief MLB debut upon his return to Chicago, but spend most of the year pitching well at Triple-A Charlotte, where he ran up a 3.53 ERA in 71 1/3 innings with 9.5 K/9 against 3.0 BB/9.
- Colin Walsh, INF, returned from Brewers to Athletics: After struggling badly in his major league stint with the Brewers, Walsh went to Oakland’s Triple-A affiliate and put up a .259/.384/.388 bating line over 245 plate appearances.
Dodgers Notes: Chapman, Turner, Jansen, Grandal
The Dodgers’ decision to back out of last December’s agreed-upon Aroldis Chapman trade wasn’t solely the mandate of ownership but was a collective consensus between the baseball operations staff and the ownership group, writes Jon Heyman in his latest notes column at FanRag Sports. By the time the baseball operations staff reached out to managing partner Mark Walter about the domestic violence allegations with which Chapman was faced, they’d already decided the deal should no longer be pursued, and Walter agreed. Heyman also adds that the three prospects that would’ve gone to Cincinnati in that deal ultimately wound up in the Reds organization anyhow, as the proposed package was Jose Peraza, Scott Schebler and Brandon Dixon for Chapman. Those three all went to the Reds in the three-team trade that sent Todd Frazier to the White Sox. (The Dodgers received Trayce Thompson, Micah Johnson and Frankie Montas from the Sox in that deal.)
A few more notes on the Dodgers…
- Heyman also reports that there have been some “very preliminary contract talks” between the Dodgers and impending free agent Justin Turner, though there’s been nothing serious enough to indicate that Turner will forgo the open market this winter. Turner has said he’d love to remain with the Dodgers, but on the heels of a monster season, he should find widespread demand for his services. The 31-year-old (32 in November) batted .275/.339/.493 with 27 homers in 151 games this season and erased a dreadful first April/May with a torrid four-month stretch to close out the season. He also grades out as a premium defender at the hot corner, all of which contributed to his 4.9 rWAR and 5.6 fWAR in 2016. He’s also been a brilliant performer thus far in his short postseason career, hitting .405/.519/.667 in 52 plate appearances. While that doesn’t necessarily do much for his free-agent stock, it certainly can’t hurt him and figures to be brought up by his agents as they seek the best deal possible for their client this winter.
- Manager Dave Roberts tells Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports that he told Kenley Jansen before the 2016 season even began that he planned to get him at least a half-dozen outings in which he pitched more than one inning over the life of the regular season as a means for preparing him for the postseason, and that indeed played out. Jansen was also candid with Rosenthal in explaining that he felt his trust was betrayed when former GM Ned Colletti signed Brandon League to a three-year deal in the wake of Jansen being diagnosed with and treated for an irregular heartbeat. He didn’t mind the possibility of the Dodgers adding Chapman this winter, stressing that he only asked that Friedman be up front with him about what might happen. And it should be noted that former teammate A.J. Ellis also spoke to Rosenthal about how frank Jansen is when discussing free agency. Ellis compared him to Zack Greinke in some respects, noting that Jansen feels he’s earned his one opportunity at a lucrative free-agent deal and figures to go to the highest bidder.
- Yasmani Grandal‘s struggles at the plate this postseason are reminiscent of his offensive woes last year in the playoffs, after which he underwent shoulder surgery, but the catcher tells Pedro Moura of the L.A. Times that he’s not injured this time around. Grandal isn’t letting his lack of offense so far get to him, as he clearly laid out to Moura that his priorities are his defensive work/game-calling behind the plate, then drawing walks, then slugging at the plate. “I’m hitting seventh, and there’s a reason why they have me hitting seventh,” he said. “They want me to make sure I run the pitching staff like it’s supposed to be ran.” Grandal also talked about his frequent visits to the mound this October, explaining that the Dodgers are keenly aware of which players on opposing teams can relay signs to hitters at the plate when they’re standing on second base.
Heyman’s Latest: Britton, Escobar, Desmond, Votto, Phillips, D-Backs
In addition to speaking with Orioles manager Buck Showalter about his decision not to deploy ace reliever Zach Britton in the Wild Card game, Jon Heyman of Fan Rag covers a number of notable topics in his most recent column. Among the highlights with a transactional component:
- Unsurprisingly, the Royals will exercise a club option over shortstop Alcides Escobar. It’s just $6.5MM (with a $500K buyout otherwise), and the club doesn’t seem willing yet to trust the job to prospect Raul Mondesi. Still the 29-year-old owns an anemic .259/.293/.335 batting line over the last two seasons; even with his typically strong defense and baserunning included, he has been a below-average regular. Escobar will have plenty to play for with free agency looming.
- It’s even less surprising to hear that the Rangers intend to make a qualifying offer to Ian Desmond, the shortstop-turned-center fielder. Texas remains very high on Desmond despite his fall-off down the stretch, says Heyman, and it seems plausible to imagine a reunion. The $17.2MM QO also appears to be the right move from a market perspective, as Desmond ought to be able to command a strong multi-year deal even after turning it down.
- We’ve heard chatter in the past about prior talks between the Blue Jays and Reds regarding first baseman Joey Votto, and Heyman discusses it further in a separate piece. There’s nothing brewing at present, but Toronto has made clear they’d like to be involved if Cincinnati undertakes any chatter on a player who may be the best hitter in the National League. Reds GM Dick Williams tells Heyman that he’s not looking to shop the superstar and also hasn’t been told that Votto (who possesses full no-trade rights) wants to depart. Even if there is mutual interest, of course, there’s the matter of sorting out the cash and prospects — which will likely be a tall order.
- Williams also tells Heyman that he believes the Reds took positive steps at the major league level in 2016, suggesting that the organization is happy to hang onto a highly popular and productive player despite his massive salary. The situation may be somewhat different with regard to second baseman Brandon Phillips, though, with Heyman writing that the team intends to find a way to get Jose Peraza into the lineup quite a bit. They’ll “make this clear” to Phillips, he says, though it isn’t known whether the veteran will be amenable to waiving his own no-trade protection after demanding an extension to do so in the past. The 35-year-old is down to the final year of his deal, though, after turning in a solid-but-unspectacular .291/.320/.416 batting line. Though metrics soured a bit on his glove, Phillips has a long history of strong defensive work. A $14MM tab on a one-year commitment is hardly unworkable, though hypothetically interested organizations may ask Cinci to kick in some cash.
- Heyman also tackled the Diamondbacks‘ front office search. Reported interest in Nationals president and GM Mike Rizzo seems likely to be a non-starter. “I don’t think there’s anything to it,” said Washington owner Mark Lerner, who called it “a totally fabricated story.” The floating of interest in Rizzo could hint that Arizona has its eyes on an exec with experience running a baseball operations department, Heyman suggests, with the team perhaps hoping to return immediately to competitiveness rather than undertaking a rebuild. A general manager with another team suggests that he thinks the D-Backs will need to guarantee a five-year term to draw a strong candidate, given the frequency of front-office turnover in Arizona.
Offseason Outlook: Cincinnati Reds
Since July 2015, the rebuilding Reds have been able to trade away Jay Bruce, Aroldis Chapman, Johnny Cueto, Todd Frazier and Mike Leake in exchange for young talent, including several players who contributed in 2016. The team’s remaining star player, Joey Votto, is still in the prime of his career and would likely be willing to waive his no-trade clause if the rebuilding is to continue. Which direction will the Reds go this offseason?
Guaranteed Contracts
- Joey Votto, 1B: $179MM through 2023 ($20MM club option in 2014; $7MM buyout; full no-trade clause)
- Homer Bailey, SP: $69MM through 2019 ($25MM mutual option in 2020; $5MM buyout)
- Brandon Phillips, 2B: $14MMMM through 2017 (full no-trade clause as part of 10-and-5 rights)
- Raisel Iglesias, RP: est. $21MM through 2020 (can opt out and file for arbitration after 2017 season)
- Devin Mesoraco, C: $20.45MM through 2018
Arbitration Eligible Players (service time in parentheses; link to MLBTR projections)
- Zack Cozart, SS (5.084): $4.7MM
- Blake Wood, RP (4.131): $2.1MM
- Billy Hamilton, CF (3.028): $2.3MM
- Tony Cingrani, RP (3.088): $1.9MM
Free Agents
Cincinnati Reds Depth Chart; Cincinnati Reds Payroll Information
The 33-year-old Votto is still owed close to $180MM through his age-39 season in 2023. With the expectation that he’d be past his prime for at least a few of those seven seasons, teams probably aren’t willing to take on that kind of money and give up premium young assets to get him. Unless the Reds are willing to eat a good chunk of his remaining salary, Votto is likely staying put.
With that in mind, along with a halfway decent second half (35-37) that likely saved manager Bryan Price’s job, it’s possible that the rebuilding period has come to an end. Notable acquisitions in trades for veteran talent since the 2014-15 offseason include Rookie Davis, Anthony DeSclafani, Adam Duvall, Brandon Finnegan, Dilson Herrera, Keury Mella, Jose Peraza, Cody Reed and Eugenio Suarez. With that group assembled, general manager Dick Williams could look to add an impact player or two at the major league level as he takes over the baseball operations department from president of baseball operations Walt Jocketty this offseason.
Votto might’ve been the best hitter in baseball in 2016 after struggling out of the gate. From May 1st through the end of the season, he posted a 1.044 OPS with 27 homers, 33 doubles and 96 walks. That’s a pretty good starting point if you’re building a playoff-caliber lineup. But is there enough talent surrounding him?
After posting a sub-.300 on-base percentage through the first 1350 plate appearances of his career, speedster Billy Hamilton reached base nearly 37% of the time in the second half of the 2016 season. While it was only 197 plate appearances—he suffered a season-ending oblique injury in early September—it was a very encouraging development for a Reds lineup that also had a breakout from Duvall (33 HR, 31 2B) and strong second half performances from Brandon Phillips (.828 OPS), Suarez (.765 OPS) and right fielder Schebler (.818 OPS).
A return to health from catcher Devin Mesoraco would give the Reds an additional boost. The 28-year-old has played in only 39 games since signing a four-year contract extension after a terrific 2014 season (.893 OPS, 25 HR). The expectation is that he’ll be ready for Spring Training after undergoing shoulder surgery in May and and hip surgery in July. Even if Mesoraco is healthy, the Reds figure to ease him back to regular duties with Tucker Barnhart, a strong defender who posted a .702 OPS in 2016, having proved that he was a capable big league catcher.
Even if the rebuild is over, the Reds could still look to trade Phillips—he would need to waive his no-trade clause— and shortstop Zack Cozart, with Peraza and Herrera representing capable replacements up the middle. Phillips, who vetoed a trade to the Washington Nationals last offseason, is entering the final year of his contract and set to earn $14MM.
The market for a highly-paid second baseman entering his age-36 season probably isn’t great even if Phillips agrees to waive his no-trade clause. Cozart, on the other hand, should have plenty of interest, although the Reds likely missed their best shot at trading him at peak value. When the trade deadline passed on August 1st, Cozart was having a career year with a .779 OPS and 15 homers. He stayed put, however, and went into a 19-for-96 (.198 BA) with one homer before he was shut down with a sore knee in mid-September. The Mariners, who were reportedly close to acquiring Cozart prior to the trade deadline, could still have him on their radar. The Padres and Twins, who have Luis Sardinas and Jorge Polanco penciled in, respectively, could also be interested in acquiring Cozart for 2017.
While there are no clear holes in the lineup, Schebler’s success came in a small sample (.762 OPS in 82 games) and the addition of another corner outfielder, at least to create some competition and provide depth, wouldn’t be a bad idea. Peraza, who posted a .762 OPS with 21 stolen bases in 72 games as a rookie, could also push for playing time at several different spots. He started games at shortstop, center field, left field and second base in 2016. Even if a regular lineup spot isn’t in the cards for 2017, his versatility still allows him to fill a super-utility role with at least four starts per week.
The pitching staff, despite finishing the season with the 3rd worst ERA in baseball (4.91), also gave the team plenty of reasons for optimism with strong second half performances from both the starting rotation and bullpen.
After missing the first two months of the season with an oblique injury, DeSclafani was able to stabilize the top of the rotation with a 3.28 ERA and 70% quality start rate. Taking a flyer on Dan Straily, who was claimed off of waivers just before the start of the season, worked out well. The 27-year-old led the team in wins (14), starts (31), innings (191.1) and strikeouts (162) while posting a respectable 3.76 ERA. The team’s bevy of young starting pitchers mostly struggled, but Finnegan finished on a strong note with a 2.23 ERA over his last 11 starts.
Unsurprisingly, Homer Bailey‘s return from Tommy John surgery was not a smooth one (6.65 ERA in six starts) and top prospects Reed and Robert Stephenson proved that they weren’t quite ready for the big leagues. However, Bailey should be closer to his pre-injury form next April and the talented duo of Reed and Stephenson are breakout candidates in 2017. Amir Garrett (2.55 ERA, 3.7 BB/9. 8.2 K/9 between Triple-A and Double-A) could also factor into the mix.
There are still too many question marks for the Reds to stand pat, however, and the addition of another reliable starting pitcher could be at the top of their offseason wish list. But as is the case with the other 29 teams in baseball, this is easier said than done. Rich Hill, Jeremy Hellickson and Ivan Nova are the best starters available in free agency and would likely cost more than the Reds are willing to pay to upgrade their rotation. The key will be finding a gem amongst the long list of free agent mid-rotation options who are coming off of unproductive and/or injury-riddled seasons.
While Raisel Iglesias could be the frontline starter that the Reds need, the closer’s role that he finished the season in might a permanent one. With his health and durability a long-term concern, the Reds had the 26-year-old pitch out of the bullpen after a disabled list stint that kept him out of action from mid-April until late July. As expected, he was very tough on opposing hitters and his ability to pitch multiple innings proved to be valuable. By season’s end, he was Price’s top choice to close out games. Michael Lorenzen, another former starter moved to the bullpen because of health concerns, also thrived in his new role and emerged as the primary setup man.
Jumbo Diaz and Blake Wood pitched well enough to enter 2017 with spots, as did lefty Tony Cingrani, who held down the closer’s job for a long stretch before struggling in September. Alejandro Chacin, who dominated at the Double-A level in 2016 (1.78 ERA, 11.1 K/9), could also make an impact next season.
Adding two veteran relievers who Price can lean on to help ease the workload of Iglesias and Lorenzen would go a long way in bringing the Reds back to respectability. Williams has expressed a willingness to spend money to upgrade this area of the roster, which could put them in the mix for one of the top free agent relievers not named Aroldis Chapman, Kenley Jansen or Mark Melancon.
It’s unrealistic to think that the Reds can jump to the top of the pack in a very tough division. If they continue to build on the several bright spots from the second half, however, and add some talent to the big league roster this offseason, 81-85 wins isn’t out of the question in 2017.
Reds Announce Five Outrights
The Reds announced this afternoon that outfielder Tyler Holt, infielder/outfielder Patrick Kivlehan, catcher Rafael Lopez and right-handed pitchers Matt Magill and Jon Moscot have cleared waivers and been sent outright to Triple-A Louisville, thus removing each from the team’s 40-man roster.
Holt, 27, received the most big league playing time of the group this season, tallying 208 plate appearances across 106 games and batting .235/.327/.296. This marked the third season in which he’s seen some degree of Major League action — the entirety of which has come between Ohio’s two MLB teams. A longtime Cleveland farmhand, the former 10th-rounder (2010) is a career .228/.306/.274 hitter in 318 PAs as a Major Leaguer and a .304/.398/.382 hitter in Triple-A. He has enough time in the minors to elect free agency and will do just that, tweets MLB.com’s Mark Sheldon.
Lopez, 29, appeared in just eight games and tallied seven hitless plate appearances with the Reds this season. He has only 21 PAs and two hits at the big league level to go along with a .259/.333/.322 slash through 175 Triple-A games in his pro career. He, too, will become a free agent, Sheldon notes.
The 26-year-old Magill returned to the Majors for the first time since 2013 when he was with the Dodgers, though his action was fairly limited, as he tossed just 4 1/3 innings across five games late in the year. Magill has a 6.47 ERA 32 Major League innings and has struggled greatly with his control, issuing more walks (33) than innings pitched (32). He does have a more respectable 4.57 ERA with 9.0 K/9 against 5.5 BB/9 in his Triple-A career. Like both Holt and Lopez, Magill is headed for minor league free agency.
As for Kivlehan and Moscot, both will remain in the organization, as neither has the requisite Major League or minor league service time to elect free agency, and neither has been outrighted in the past. Kivlehan, who was designated for assignment last week, is a .282/.344/.470 career hitter in the minors, where he’s played both corner infield positions extensively and has seen limited action in all three outfield slots. The former Mariners prospect is set to turn 27 in December and could compete for a bench spot next spring. Moscot, meanwhile, underwent Tommy John surgery in mid-July. He’ll presumably spend most of the next year rehabbing and hope to factor back into the Reds’ bullpen or rotation in late 2017 or early 2018. The 25-year-old has made eight starts for the Reds over the past two seasons but has an ERA just shy of 7.00 in that time, as he’s struggled to locate the ball effectively and to miss bats. Moscot does have a solid minor league track record, however, as he’s logged a 3.79 ERA with 7.1 K/9 against 2.9 BB/9 since being drafted in the fourth round of the 2012 draft (including a 4.38 ERA in Triple-A).