On a night when Max Scherzer turned in one of the most dominant starts in history, striking out 20 Tigers batters (video link) to tie a Major League record, here are a few notes on pitcher contracts and injuries…
- Cubs ace Jake Arrieta won’t offer the team a discount in extension talks, he told reporters, including ESPN Chicago’s Jesse Rogers. According to previous reports, the Cubs have been hesitant to commit to anything greater than a four-year term, and that length clearly isn’t of interest to the 30-year-old reigning Cy Young winner. “Aces get seven years,” Arrieta candidly said in the interview. Asked what he felt his market to be, Arrieta declined to answer directly, instead telling reporters: “I’ll let you judge that. Just look at the numbers.” Arrieta again emphasized that his preference is to remain with the Cubs but that being compensated at the same level as the game’s other elite arms is also a factor. “Financially I’m fine, regardless,” he said. “You want to be paid in respect to how your peers are paid. I don’t think that changes with any guy you ask. It happens around baseball every year.” As Rogers points out, Scherzer and David Price are likelier comparables than the recently extended Stephen Strasburg, who secured a seven-year, $175MM deal.
- Mets left-hander Steven Matz will miss his next start due to soreness in his pitching elbow, manager Terry Collins told the media (via ESPN New York’s Adam Rubin). Right-hander Logan Verrett will take Matz’s turn in the rotation on Saturday, and Matz will be examined by doctors in New York next Monday. As the lefty himself explained (via the New York Post’s Mike Puma), he tried to pitch through similar soreness last season and ultimately had to spent two months on the shelf. The issue seems relatively innocuous at the moment, though given Matz’s considerable injury history it’s not surprising to see Puma write that there is “some level of concern” about Matz.
- MLB.com’s Bill Ladson spoke to Strasburg about his extension with the Nationals, (Twitter link to audio download), his motivation to sign now with free agency looming, the influence Tony Gwynn (his favorite player growing up and coach in college at San Diego State) has had on his desire to remain with one club and the team’s decision to shut him down in the midst of the 2012 playoff push in his first season back from Tommy John surgery. “He definitely had that sense of loyalty,” Strasburg said of Gwynn. “I think there were certainly times in his career where he could’ve gone other places, but the city, San Diego, kind of grew on him, and he became an icon in that city. I’m not about to say that I’m going to be on his level here in D.C., but I think you do have some sort of sense of loyalty to the team that did draft you, at least speaking for myself. So, when the opportunity presented itself that, here’s a fair deal presented to you, it didn’t really take long to make my mind up.”
- Reds right-hander Homer Bailey is “taking a step back” in his rehab from Tommy John surgery, writes C. Trent Rosecrans of the Cincinnati Enquirer. Bailey explains to Rosecrans that he had a second opinion on his elbow on Monday, 366 days after his surgery, and is slowing his pace as a precaution. Bailey recently experienced some pain and took 10 days off from throwing and is being extra cautious. “One of the things that was brought to my attention was there’s a lot of research about guys who come back at the 12-month mark have a higher probability of it happening again, as opposed to maybe 14 months then the numbers are (better),” he adds. Bailey made throws of 110-120 feet on Tuesday without pain, but he tells Rosecrans he’s still about a month away from a rehab assignment.
- Chris Young, who underwent an MRI today due to forearm soreness, has been diagnosed with a muscle strain on the top of said forearm, tweets the Kansas City Star’s Rustin Dodd. Young is a candidate to land on the 15-day disabled list, even though (via MLB.com’s Jeffrey Flanagan, on Twitter) manager Ned Yost said that Young may not need 15 whole days to recover from the issue. The club may simply not have a choice, especially due to the fact that right-hander Kris Medlen is also scheduled to have his shoulder examined due to some soreness (via Dodd). Medlen’s Sunday start is in jeopardy, though the severity of the issue remains unclear.
Ok Jake
Lol exactly!
25 yr cub fan here but they need to let him go. Jake seems a little full of himself! Don’t tie up 30 million a year to him
In Jakes defense, he’s only answering questions-its not like he called the press conference. And really…his statements are not incorrect. His only other option is to blow off the question with a bs answer or no comment.
There is no way Cubs extend him! Sad to say Cubs are gonna use and abuse him for another year and a half!! Then maybe trade him if not take that draft pick. Then Jake at 31 and a half good luck on getting that 7 year deal but it won’t be the Cubs giving you it!!
He puts up dominat numbers like he has been he’ll get 5-6 at the same value but probably front loaded in the first 2-3 years. Say 4 years 100mill then 3 years 50 mill or something. Plenty of suitors if he stays healthy and pitches well like he has. Yankees Red Sox Dodgers Angels.
he wants more $ than that.
Well ok good ol Arrieta is a little full of himself…Sorry bud no one is worth $30 million a year..Good luck wherever you end up!
Two pitchers this offseason signed contracts with AAV of 30 million +. Arrieta will get that too.
“Oh Jake,” stated above, well said. I wish players would stop with such posturing nonsense. If, indeed, Arrieta thinks his numbers should speak for themselves, then let the numbers do the talking. Just pitch, Jake, stop with all the preening. Also, here’s hoping Matz is okay.
People act as if these players just randomly release these statements. They get bombarded with questions everyday, he got asked how much he thinks he is worth, he can’t really just leave the press conference and walk to the nearest mound and start throwing.
Jake forgot that aces are usually aces before they are 28, 29, or 30 years old. A 7 year deal would be reckless. Someone WILL do it, but I hope it’s not the Cubs.
If the Cubs can’t get Arrieta at their price/length, and seeing big-pitching contracts become albatrosses for teams, they got no choice. I’m starting to think dealing him this coming off-season might be the prudent move. You either organize a multi-team deal or take whatever prospects you get and flip them… but you look to add a young, controllable, MLB-ready power arm to replace him for 2017. The A’s keep saying they’d need to be overwhelmed to deal Sonny Gray, well if you work this trade well-enough, you might be able to overwhelm them.
[Note: I know Gray is struggling, and Oakland pitchers tend to breakdown after they leave Oakland, but that is the type of player you look to add. If not Gray, then someone exactly like him… Chris Sale perhaps?].
The A’s will want a boat load of prospects in return for Gray…a deal of Arrieta for Gray isn’t appealing to them since he can just walk and they won’t be able to resign. For Chris Sale, considering he is younger, locked up longer, and the White Sox are competing, the Cubs would again need to give up a lot. As good as Arrieta is, not many teams are going to want to deal their ace for him when he can walk in two years (one if you go off your hypothetical trade him during the offseason).
Or you do what the Phillies did and trade for a sonny gray type of pitcher and give up a couple prospects, and then trade arrieta for prospects. The trade essentially becomes ace for ace and prospects for prospects, but more club control over someone like sonny gray.
And by “do what the Phillies did,” I mean the old Phillies the year they got Halladay and traded away Cliff lee.
Sale will retire with White Sox. No way No how do they trade him.
No, I said use Arrieta to net prospects then flip the prospects for a pitcher like Gray or Sale. And not necessarily those two guys.
Why trade him? Their contention window is now and they have no huge needs. Suck every last ounce of baseball out of him and let him go the open market in two years at 32.
Yeah agreed! Get what we can out of him for 2 more years then send him on his way.
Aces get seven years… and aces have more than two good years and a month of another year under their belt before the get to call themselves aces.
Arrieta would be an ace on 29 staffs around baseball. The only place he wouldn’t be an ace is out in LA, and I’m definitely not talking about the Angels
That’s fine if your definition of “ace” is just the best starter on the roster. But, two calendar years ago Arrieta was anything but an ace.
Point being there’s a longevity element to “ace” for me.
Longevity doesn’t make sense. Baseball players have like 5yr primes. So by the time they qualify they begin to lose stuff.
He’s not an ace on the south side either.
Jake will get paid
Even if you want to look at players like Price, look at his ERA now. Look at how much. People mock these $30 million contracts after year 2-3. It’s not about past performance, it’s about future value.
I’d offer jake a seven year deal, but years 5-7 will be worth up to $30 mil via incentives, not guarantees. Maybe $10-15 guaranteed.
Arrieta an ace. Yes, for the last 5 minutes. Arrieta is going to struggle the rest of the season. I know it sounds ridiculous to say of a guy with an ERA in the low 1 vicinity, but he is laboring. He has thrown a lot of pitches and been walking a lot of batters his last 3 starts. Throwing across your body the way he does eventually takes its toll on your shoulder. Cubs are smart to tell him ” no way” on a 7-year deal.
Wow! I always envisioned him as a good guy. Really stuck up. Their is a spot on the Yankees for you my friend
A little over 2 seasons ago he had a 4.78 ERA and a 1.33 WHIP and was 5-4 in 75 IP….sorry Jake but you don’t have the track record or youth to warrant anything beyond 5 yrs at maybe $24M with some added incentives.. Best of luck in LA…that’s my bet as to where he ends up.
A little over 29 seasons ago he was still in diapers, what’s ur point?
I’m in the camp that says no way he gets a 7 year deal from the Cubs.
Ride out the contract and call it a day. There is no way he’ll be as great as last year,
though I think he’ll be really good this year. If you want to move him for prospects before his contract is up, I’m o.k. with that too. It’s all about staying ahead of the game.
Nobody is giving you any worthwhile prospects for him when they know the cubs won’t sign him long term. They’d probably wait for him to hit the market, sacrifice the 1st, or 2nd if its protected, bank on their QO guys netting them extra 1sts, and sign arrieta. What he would command and the situaton hurts what theyll receive.
Now if you were to add him, and prospects, to get trout from the angels they might take the bait and try to get an extension out of him with the money they saved from trouts deal.
Torress, arrieta, contreras, soler, mckinney, and baez plus lower guys get you what 4-5 years of trout heyward bryant rizzo?
No need to throw in that many valuable prospects WITH arguably the best pitcher in the game just to bring one player back. I agree that Trout costs a lot and only Arrieta wouldn’t get a trout back, but absolutely no need to throw in both Baez and Soler and Wilson contreras. That’s overvaluing trout way too much and I still think of trout as the best player in the game.
They trading a top pitchet with 2 seasons of success for the best player in baseball. And the deal costs them nothing but prospects who arent contributing. Torress blocked by russel zobrist bryant, contreras blocked by schwarber when he comes back. Mckinney soler blocked by trout heyward and Heyward. Baez is blockef by bryant zobrist.
Youre turning guys who arent even starters into thebest guy in baseball. Either that or watch the dodgers offer to take pujols in a deal for trout. They actually have pitching in urias and de leon to offer and can take on pujols contract. Cubs cant take pujols which that $$ gone seems more relevant then prospects.
Three thoughts…
1) Anyone who thinks/argues that he’s not worth a seven year mega deal based only on his past two years has a valid argument, but this is literally his only chance at a huge deal in his career and any human being would market themselves this way to secure their future
2) Cubs are in a catch 22. Either pay Arrieta or pay all the young bats whose rookie deals gonna expire during any Arrieta extension. Personally I’d sign Arrieta because there isn’t much pitching prospects on the way, yet they’ll have enough bats for a lineup for another decade
3) Can’t we just enjoy his dominance. Very easy argument for having the best 30 start stretch by any pitcher ever. Every Arrieta start should be a sellout regardless of city, day, time, etc.
Jake is an ace. I’m glad he answers these questions honestly, it’s refreshing. I hope it is not the cubs who sign him.
Agree completely. He certainly didn’t come off as arrogant to me (the only comment he made that made me chuckle was his remark about wanting a deal done quickly, but only at his exact price). That being said, he’s been dominant for a year and a half, and wasn’t exactly shabby the year before that, so he’s earned the right to command his money on the open market when the time comes, and the trade will have paid off immensely for the Cubs (and for him) regardless of whether he leaves. The comments about “well, he actually seemed like a ‘good’ guy” don’t make any sense to me
The wrong Chris Young is linked in this article.
Sorry, “one of the most dominant starts in history” is excessive hyperbole.
He gave up 6 hits including 2 HRs and a 410+ foot double. He also had up a foul pop that was just missed. He came very close to losing the game, or at least leaving with the game tied.
Let say 5 of those 6 hits (and the pop up) were hit less hard/at people. He would have had a one hitter with 13Ks, but would have pitched a much more dominant game and it would have been a ho hum footnote.
Did cj stop proposing outlandish trades and make a new account where he makes incoherent reviews on pitching performances?
I agree with a lot of other fans. Let Jake walk after 2016 and 2017. No pitcher is worth $30 mil a year. Yankees or Dodgers are dumb enough to give him what he wants.
Free market, free agent, he gets what the market is willing to pay. I don’t see how anyone can have a problem with that. He could use some lessons in diplomacy, but in terms of his right to seek top dollar, I agree with him,
Well said
In the words of Hawk Harrellson….”He Gone”
Revenues are going up. New TV deals are huge. How does $25 or $30 million now equate proportionally to the biggest contract 25 years ago? Not based on inflation, based on team revenue.
Gotta get passed the total dollars and compare apples to apples. I doubt this many $25 million/year contracts are being handed out and owners not making money. I’m a life long Cubs fan and say if there is a need for him when he hits free agency give him what the market dictates. Not my money. Its a business. Owners know that. Players know that. Fans don’t always realize it.
Personally I like what he said. He was asked a question and he answered it honestly.
I don’t understand why teams still shell out mega money and insane deals to starting pitchers. Solid pitching used to be a scarce commodity…… USED to be…… like 10+ years ago. Nowadays pitching is plentiful and quality hitting is what is extremely rare. Just based on availability alone you’d think top notch hitters in the league would be the ones inking this asinine $30+M/year contracts…… not starting pitchers who only play 21% of their team’s games……. IF they stay healthy, which is a seemingly difficult thing to do for today’s pitchers.
But let’s look at the stats to further nail the point home that giving a mega deal to a pitcher is easily the biggest waste of money, shall we.
– In 2000 (min. 420 ABs) there were 69 hitters who hit .290 or higher…….. 53 of them hit .300+
– In 2015 (min. 420 ABs) there were 37 hitters who hit .290+……. only 20 hit .300+
– In 2000 58 batters struck out 100 or more times
– In 2015 116 batters struck out 100 or more times
– In 2000 the second to worst hitting team, Phillies, hit for a .251 BA as a team….. that would’ve been good for about 14th best in 2015…… or about average.
– In 2015 the best hitting team hit .270……. that would’ve been good enough for 15th best in 2000
– In 2000 the best team ERA belonged to the Braves, a 4.05 ERA…….. in 2015 that would have been “good” enough for 17th best in MLB
– In 2015 there were 45 pitchers with at least 180 IP to have an ERA below 4.00. The worst ERA from a pitcher last year to throw 180 IP had a 5.05 ERA….. the only one to have an ERA above 5.00 and have 180 IP (Alfredo Simon)
– In 2000 there were 17 pitchers with at least 180 IP to have an ERA below 4.00. The worst ERA from a pitcher in 2000 to throw 180 IP had a 6.65 ERA…….. 10 pitchers had thrown 180 IP and owned ERAs above 5.00.
Side note…… in 2000 66 pitchers threw at least 180 IP……… in 2015 only 56…….. so despite the much better pitching they aren’t allowed to throw as many pitches which means they won’t pitch as many innings…… which IMO makes the position that much less valuable.
The 53rd ranked batting average among players last year with at least 420 ABs belonged to Broc holt who hit .280………… as I said earlier, 53 players in 2000 hit .300 or better. That means the old standard of being a .300 hitter as a quality hitter is no longer valid. Anyone who hits .280 or above nowadays is now that guy. If you’re a .300 hitter in today’s game that means your equivalent player (20th ranked batting average) in 2000 hit .324.
Look it up if you don’t believe me. People blame steroids for the “obvious” decline in power numbers……. but in 2000 the team with the most HRs hit 249…….. the top team in 2015 hit 232……. not that much of a drop off. The team with the fewest HRs in 2000 hit 116. In 2015 the team with the fewest hit 100…… the 29th ranked team in number of HRs last year hit 120……. so actually it hasn’t dropped off as much as you’d think. It’s just the quality hitting overall that has declined an insane amount. Batters are striking out WAAAAAAAAAY more in today’s game and hitting for about 20 point LOWER batting averages on average.
The point I am making here is teams like the Diamondbacks and Red Sox who broke the bank and shot their load all over starting pitchers this offseason are doing it wrong IMO. You can find cheaper pitchers who still get the job done for MUCH cheaper than what they ended up paying Price and Greinke. That money always made more sense to me being spent on players who play 158 games for their team….. position players……. not players who play 21% or 34 games for their team (assuming they stay healthy….. again, increasingly rare it seems these days…… in starting pitchers. Give me 8 starting position players who are beasts at the plate and get on base at a high clip and a rotation full of $15M or less/year, #3 quality starting pitchers any day rather than a $30+M/year “Ace” followed by just decent arms in the rotation coupled with a team of your average hitters in today’s game.
Arrieta…… it’s been fun, but I hope your time as a Cub is coming to an end either halfway through next year or they let you walk at the end of 2017 and we get a comp pick for you. You or any pitcher for that matter isn’t worth $30M+ per season. If the Cubs feel obliged to make an offer next year the highest I’d go is the same offer Lester accepted 1+ year ago. $25+M/season is still stupid money IMO for a pitcher, but they gave it to Lester and Arrieta is just as good so I’d entertain him with an offer. If he refuses it show him the door. It’s been real. I’d rather see them use that money in deals to keep the likes of Rizzo, Bryant, Russell, and Schwarber together for the majority of their careers. You could even throw Hendricks and Baez in that group as well. Why Hendricks? Because he’ll be cheap to keep despite his unfairly under appreciated stellar numbers he’s put up so far through his first 51 major league starts. The Cubs, IMO, have a Jordan Zimmermann 2.0 on their hands in Hendricks and no one acknowledges that fact. In fact through both player’s first 51 starts, Hendricks is better. I think people would be surprised in the likes of the starting pitchers Hendricks’ stats so far in his young career actually compare to in the game. He’s thrown top of the rotation stuff and is still on an unfair, extremely short leash held by Maddon and is treated and talked about like he’s John Danks of the Cubs. “Experts” and fans alike give him no respect. The fans so much so they thought he and Warren would compete for the 5th starter role this spring. I didn’t know he lost the spot last year. But I digress, point of this rant is Arrieta and all these “aces” who sign these huge deals rarely live up to them……. ever. If he wants to get paid like his peers then I hope the Cubs use Jordan Zimmermann and Johnny Cueto as examples of his peers. 2 dudes who just signed deals this last offseason, paying them an average of about $22M/season.
You must be really bored
I think he is trying to justify the Jason Heyword signing.