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Looking Ahead To Club Options: AL Central

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MLBTR continues our division by division look at next year’s team/mutual option class with the AL Central. Virtually all of the mutual options will be bought out by one side. Generally, if the team is willing to retain the player at the option price, the player will decline his end in search of a better free agent deal.

Previous installments: player options/opt-outs, NL West, AL West, NL Central

Chicago White Sox

Pérez signed a $5MM free agent deal to serve as the veteran presence in a very young White Sox rotation. Chicago hoped he’d pitch well enough in the first half to net a lottery ticket prospect at the deadline. Pérez was reasonably effective through his first three starts, but he came out of his fourth outing with forearm discomfort. A flexor strain diagnosis immediately sent him to the 60-day injured list. He’s expected to avoid surgery but will miss almost the entire season. A deadline trade is off the table, and he’ll be bought out at season’s end.

As recently as a few months ago, Robert’s $20MM club option looked like excellent value, as did the matching option for 2026. He was a down-ballot MVP performer in 2023, when he hit .264/.315/.542 with 38 homers while playing plus center field defense. The ’24 campaign was a struggle. Robert missed nearly two months early in the season with a hip flexor strain and was unproductive when healthy. He hit .224/.278/.379 with 14 homers in 100 games. Chicago held him into this year rather than sell low in an offseason trade.

That put a lot of pressure on Robert to hit early in the year. An excellent few months could make him one of the top position players available at the deadline. A terrible start might tank what remained of his trade value. The early returns are disastrous: .138/.255/.238 with 30 strikeouts in 96 plate appearances. There’s still time for a turnaround, but Robert may be following in the footsteps of Tim Anderson and Eloy Jiménez — players whose once team-friendly extensions soured to the point that they were traded for meager returns and/or bought out.

Cleveland Guardians

Means underwent UCL surgery last June. That was his second such procedure within the past three years. He’d undergone Tommy John surgery in 2022 and had only just returned before his elbow gave out again. The Guardians took a $1MM flier in free agency. The deal includes a $6MM team option for next season. Means is hoping to return to the mound in August or September. His late-season form will determine whether Cleveland wants to keep him around next year.

If the Guardians exercise the option, Means could unlock up to $2.5MM in performance bonuses. He’d earn $75K apiece at 20, 30, 40 and 50 innings pitched next year. That climbs to $100K each for 60, 70, 80 and 90 frames; $125K at 100, 110, 120 and 130 innings; and $150K apiece for 140 and 150 frames.

Sewald had a pair of above-average seasons as Seattle’s closer between 2022-23. His production started to trend down after a ’23 deadline deal that sent him to Arizona. Sewald remained generally productive through the Snakes’ surprising World Series run that year. Last season was his worst since his 2021 breakout. He allowed a 4.31 ERA with declining velocity through 39 2/3 innings. The Guardians surprisingly guaranteed him $7MM to deepen an already excellent bullpen. The veteran righty has punched out 13 hitters through 10 1/3 frames, but he has already surrendered three homers while averaging just 90.2 MPH on his fastball.

Detroit Tigers

Detroit added Brebbia on a $2.75MM contract early in Spring Training. It was a roll of the dice on the veteran righty’s intriguing swing-and-miss rates. Brebbia had allowed nearly six earned runs per nine innings last season (mostly with the White Sox), but he punched out nearly 28% of opposing hitters. Things have reversed early in his Detroit tenure. Brebbia has only allowed two runs (one earned) over his first nine innings. His 8.8% swinging strike rate is well below average, though, and he’s given out eight free passes — five walks and three hit batters.

Brebbia is working in low-leverage situations that suggest he’s towards the bottom of the bullpen depth chart. He’ll need to turn around his underlying numbers to pitch his way into more meaningful spots and, eventually, to convince the front office to exercise the option.

Brebbia could push the option price by another $4MM based on his performance this year. It’d climb by $500K at 65 appearances, $1MM apiece at 45 and 50 games finished, and by $2MM for 55 games finished. The maximum escalator value is capped at $4MM, so the appearance threshold would essentially be nullified if Brebbia finishes 55 games and pushes the option value to $8MM based on that criteria alone. He has finished six of eight appearances so far.

Urquidy’s situation is similar to that of Means. The former Astros righty required Tommy John surgery last June. Houston waived him at the end of the season. He reunited with A.J. Hinch in Detroit on a $1MM contract. Urquidy won’t be an option until the final few weeks of the season in a best case scenario. Detroit can gauge his progress to determine whether they want to retain him at a $4MM base value. Urquidy could tack on another $3MM if the Tigers exercise the option: $150K each at four and seven starts next year; $300K apiece for 10, 13, 16 and 19 starts; and $500K each at 22, 25 and 28 starts.

Kansas City Royals

  • Michael Lorenzen, RHP ($12MM mutual option, $1.5M buyout if team declines its end)

Kansas City brought Lorenzen back on a $7MM free agent deal. He’s playing on a $5.5MM salary and would collect a $1.5MM buyout on a $12MM mutual option assuming the Royals decline their end. He grabbed a season-opening rotation spot with both Alec Marsh and Kyle Wright on the shelf. Lorenzen has had a customary start to the season. He carried a 4.57 ERA with a below-average 17.7% strikeout rate into this evening’s appearance against the Rockies. He’s through five scoreless innings against Colorado at the time of this writing.

Perez is making $22MM in the final season of the four-year extension that he signed in March 2021. At the time, it was the largest contract in organizational history. (Bobby Witt Jr. has since shattered that record.) Perez is a franchise stalwart, of course, but it was still surprising to see the Royals guarantee him $82MM for his age 32-35 seasons — especially given the heavy workloads he’d taken throughout his career.

The nine-time All-Star has rewarded the team’s faith. He led the majors with 48 homers and 121 RBI in 2021, though he was already under contract for that season anyhow. He combined for a .261/.307/.447 slash over the first three seasons of the extension. Perez eclipsed 20 home runs in each, and he won the AL Silver Slugger Award behind the dish with a .271/.330/.456 showing during last year’s playoff season.

Perez has started this season more slowly. He entered today’s doubleheader with a .185/.235/.293 line, though he has picked up four doubles over two games against Colorado pitching. If this continues all season, the Royals could face a tough decision, but the safer bet right now is that Kansas City will exercise the option. It’s tough to imagine Perez playing anywhere else.

Minnesota Twins

Minnesota added Bader on a $6.25MM contract amidst a quiet offseason. They’ve preferred to have a capable right-handed hitting fourth outfielder who can reduce Byron Buxton’s workload in center field while complementing their lefty-hitting corner bats. Bader has started 18 of the team’s first 25 games. He’s hitting .230/.319/.393 with a trio of home runs through 69 plate appearances. It’s an early improvement over last year’s .236/.284/.373 showing, but it’s unlikely the Twins would exercise their end of a $10MM option.

The bigger factor might be Bader’s semi-regular playing time. He could push the buyout price as high as $3MM based on this season’s plate appearance total. It has a $1.5MM base value and would climb by $200K at 400, 425 and 450 plate appearances, then by $450K at 475 and 500.

Note: Justin Topa’s arbitration contract contains a $2MM club option or a $225K buyout for next season. He’d remain eligible for arbitration if the team declines the option, as he will not have reached six years of service time.

Royals Re-Sign Michael Lorenzen

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Jan. 8: Lorenzen has passed his physical, and the Royals have formally announced his new contract. Their 40-man roster is now up to 39 players.

Jan. 6: The Royals and Michael Lorenzen are reportedly in agreement on a one-year, $7MM contract. The deal, which is pending a physical, comes with a $5.5MM salary for next season. There’s a $12MM mutual option for 2026 that would come with a $1.5MM buyout if the Royals decline their end of the option. The contract also contains $1MM in performance bonuses for the CAA client.

Lorenzen heads back to Kansas City after finishing the ’24 campaign with the Royals. Kansas City acquired him from the Rangers in a deadline deal that sent reliever Walter Pennington to Texas. Lorenzen made a strong first impression, turning in a 1.57 ERA across 28 2/3 innings while starting six of his seven outings.

That capped off one of the better seasons of his decade-long MLB career. Lorenzen finished the year with a combined 3.31 earned run average over 130 1/3 innings. He started all but two of his 26 appearances. It was the third straight solid year since Lorenzen moved to the rotation. He’d turned in a 4.24 ERA over 18 starts for the Angels in 2022 and combined for a 4.18 mark in 153 innings between the Tigers and Phillies in ’23.

In each of those seasons, Lorenzen has found bottom line success despite an unimpressive strikeout and walk profile. That was particularly true last year. His 18.1% strikeout percentage and 11.2% walk rate are a few points worse than the respective league averages. Lorenzen has missed bats on fewer than 10% of his pitches in consecutive seasons. Last year’s 9.1% swinging strike rate was his lowest mark since 2018.

Lorenzen nevertheless carries a 3.90 ERA across nearly 400 innings over the last three seasons. While he has outperformed his peripherals in each season, teams seemingly remain skeptical about his chances of doing so yet again. Lorenzen has been limited to one-year contracts with base salaries below eight figures in each of the last four offseasons. He reportedly sought a two-year deal last winter. Lorenzen lingered in free agency deep into Spring Training before heading to Arlington on a modest $4.5MM guarantee with $2.5MM in performance bonuses.

The 33-year-old jumped on a deal earlier in the winter this time around. Lorenzen earns a slight pay bump relative to last season. He’ll also get the benefit of sticking with the same organization with which he ended the previous year. This is the first time since Lorenzen’s early-career run in the Cincinnati bullpen that he’ll stick with the same team over an offseason.

Kansas City lost some mid-rotation stability when they swapped Brady Singer for Jonathan India early in the offseason. That vacated a rotation spot for Kyle Wright, who is coming back from shoulder surgery that cost him the entire 2024 season. Lorenzen could compete with Wright and Alec Marsh for the fifth rotation spot behind Cole Ragans, Seth Lugo, Michael Wacha and Kris Bubic. Skipper Matt Quatraro could also turn to a six-man rotation or keep Lorenzen in long relief with the flexibility to move back into the rotation as injuries arise or workload management necessitates.

Previous reporting had indicated that Lorenzen, who had a bit of outfield experience with Cincinnati early in his career, could sign with a non-contender to take some at-bats. The idea would’ve been to reach the 20 games as a hitter necessary to qualify as a two-way player. That would’ve meant he would not have counted against a team’s 13-pitcher limit. There is no indication that the Royals — a team that made the Division Series last year and certainly intends to reach the playoffs again — is planning to do that.

Lorenzen’s salary brings the Royals’ payroll to roughly $121MM, according to the RosterResource calculations. They’d been around last year’s spending level before this signing, their first MLB contract since they re-signed Wacha shortly before free agency officially opened. It’s not clear how much room remains in the budget. Kansas City has reportedly looked for a middle-of-the-order bat after acquiring India to hit atop the lineup. Corner outfield and bullpen help are the biggest needs on paper.

ESPN’s Jeff Passan first reported the Royals and Lorenzen had agreed to a one-year, $7MM deal that included a $12MM mutual option. Anne Rogers of MLB.com reported the salary and the option buyout. Ken Rosenthal of the Athletic was first to mention the $1MM in bonuses. Image courtesy of Imagn.

Michael Lorenzen Being Marketed As Two-Way Player To Circumvent Roster Limits On Pitchers

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Free agent Michael Lorenzen has primarily been a pitcher in his career but has occasionally dabbled in hitting and playing the outfield. Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic reports that Lorenzen and his agent, Ryan Hamill of CAA, are pitching him as a two-way player for the upcoming season. However, the idea isn’t really to sell Lorenzen as a viable hitter, but to get around the roster rules that limit how many pitchers a team can have.

Major League Baseball instituted a rule in June of 2022 limiting clubs to 13 pitchers on a 26-man roster. When rosters expand to 28 in September, the pitcher limit goes up to 14. As part of these rules, each player is designated as a pitcher or a hitter or a two-way player. In the case of a two-way player, they don’t count against that pitcher limit. For instance, the Angels were able to carry Shohei Ohtani and 13 other pitchers on their roster during his time with that club, giving them one extra arm compared to all other teams. The Dodgers will be able to do the same in 2025 and beyond, after Ohtani didn’t pitch this year while recovering from Tommy John surgery.

To qualify for two-way status, a player needs to have met certain criteria. They need to have pitched at least 20 innings and have played 20 games as a position player or designated hitter, getting at least three plate appearances in those games, in either the current season or the previous one. The status allows the club to get around the roster limitations, as well as the rules on when a position player can pitch.

The plan from Lorenzen and his agent, as laid out by Rosenthal, is to let Lorenzen get the necessary plate appearances this year in order to qualify for two-way status. Once he has that status, it would be in place for the remainder of 2025 and in 2026 as well.

It’s a creative plan which would theoretically increase Lorenzen’s value. In this day and age, pitcher usage has been shrinking, with starters getting pulled earlier and relievers taking up larger workloads. Having one extra arm would certainly appeal to a club, so it’s understandable with Lorenzen and his reps would give it a try.

The challenge would be in implementation. Lorenzen wasn’t an especially good hitter even when he was doing it regularly. With the Reds from 2015 to 2019, he got between five and 53 plate appearances each year, getting to 145 in total over those five seasons. He hit seven home runs but only walked at a 4.8% rate and struck out 31.7% of the time. His .235/.279/.432 line led to an 84 wRC+, which is not too bad for a pitcher but still subpar. It’s also mostly buoyed by a four-homer burst in 34 plate appearances in 2018. He stepped to the plate 53 times in 2019 but went deep just once and slashed .208/.283/.313 for a wRC+ of 53.

Even getting to something in that vicinity is probably a tall ask. Lorenzen got exactly one plate appearance in both 2020 and 2021, followed by none at all in the past three seasons, so we’re talking about a guy who essentially hasn’t hit at all in five years and is turning 33 years old in January.

But the way the plan is outlined, that doesn’t seem to matter. The idea is for a rebuilding club such as the White Sox or Marlins to run Lorenzen out there, knowing full well he isn’t likely to hit much, but presumably not caring since they’re not really trying to win anyway. Once he has unlocked two-way player status, he can be traded to a contender that would benefit from having another pitcher on the roster.

It’s perhaps worth noting that this plan could theoretically be done with any pitcher, though a theoretical hurler might not be keen on the idea. A random free agent pitcher might not want to embarrass himself by stepping up the plate in those 20 games, and there’s also the risk of suffering an injury on a stray pitch hitting a hand or some kind of strain while running the bases or sliding into a bag. Lorenzen at least has the potential to be somewhat passable in the box and it’s possible he welcomes the challenge of getting back in there.

Lorenzen has been utilized more as a pitcher because his results have been better on the mound, and he would have value even just as a standard hurler. He has a 3.99 earned run average in 854 1/3 innings at this point, working as a starter, reliever or swingman over his career. He has signed one-year deals in each of the past three offseasons, just based on his abilities on the mound. He got $6.8MM from the Angels going into 2022, $8.5MM from the Tigers going into 2023 and $4.5MM from the Rangers last offseason. He just posted a 3.31 ERA this year between the Rangers and Royals and would presumably be able to get another solid one-year pact in the coming weeks or months.

The hope from Lorenzen and his reps seems to be that this unorthodox idea could perhaps get him a bit more money or maybe a second year on his next deal. It’s unclear whether any club would have the appetite for such a strategy, however. In the age of expanded playoffs and the draft lottery, very few clubs are going into the 2025 season with no hope of contending. Even clubs that have been bad in recent seasons like the Angels and Athletics have been aggressively adding to their rosters this winter.

The White Sox just had a record-setting season of futility and are surely going to be bad again in 2025, but intentionally tanking a lineup spot to gain some theoretical marginal boost in trade value might be a bit too egregious for a club that probably has some desire for a less embarrassing season next year. It’d also take some at-bats from younger players the team would like to develop.

Rosenthal scoffs at the idea of the White Sox or Marlins having young players that they want to give big league at-bats to, but that’s oddly dismissive. Surely the Fish would have to weigh a plan like this against trying out various players they hope can become viable major leaguers, such as Kyle Stowers, Griffin Conine, Deyvison De Los Santos and so on. Even if they feel they have DH at-bats to use, they could go the more traditional route of just signing a free agent hitter such as Jesse Winker or Tommy Pham with the idea of trading that player at the deadline.

Time will tell if any club will bite, but one has to tip their cap to Lorenzen and his reps for thinking outside the box.

Royals Notes: Lorenzen, Marsh, Harvey, McArthur

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Michael Lorenzen will return from the 15-day injured list tomorrow. The Royals list him as the probable starter for the second game of their series in Washington. Kansas City will need to make a corresponding active roster move.

It’s a crucial start as K.C. fights for a playoff spot. The Royals squeaked out a 1-0 win in extra innings over the Nationals tonight. That kept them in front of the Tigers for the AL’s second Wild Card spot via the tiebreaker. They’re two games up on the Twins and 2.5 clear of the Mariners in the race.

Lorenzen has been down for more than a month because of a left hamstring strain. Acquired from the Rangers at the deadline, the righty had a sparkling 1.85 earned run average in 24 1/3 innings over his first five starts. That excellent run prevention was in spite of mediocre strikeout (17%) and walk (10%) rates. Lorenzen’s results have generally outpaced his peripherals for consecutive seasons. He carries a 3.43 ERA over 126 frames between Texas and K.C. this year.

Alec Marsh stepped back into the rotation while Lorenzen was on the shelf. He pitched fairly well, turning in a 4.50 ERA while striking out more than 32% of opponents over four starts. Marsh is moving into the bullpen to open a rotation spot, tweets Jaylon Thompson of the K.C. Star. The 26-year-old righty has turned in a 4.65 ERA with a solid 23% strikeout rate over 25 appearances (24 starts) on the year. He had an excellent start to the season before a terrible July led the Royals to option him to Triple-A for the three weeks preceding Lorenzen’s injury.

While Lorenzen’s return is a boost to the pitching staff, skipper Matt Quatraro provided disheartening updates on a pair of relievers this afternoon. The Royals have officially ruled out Hunter Harvey and James McArthur for the season, Quatraro said (X link via Anne Rogers of MLB.com). Harvey has been out since the middle of August with a back injury, while the Royals lost McArthur to an elbow sprain last week.

Quatraro said the Royals were sending Harvey for a second opinion, which at least raises the question of whether he’ll need surgery. Injuries have been a recurring problem for the 29-year-old righty. Harvey underwent Tommy John surgery as a prospect and has had extended absences during his MLB career for forearm, lat and elbow injuries.

Harvey can be a high-leverage reliever at his best, as he showed with the Nationals between 2023-24. He fired 60 2/3 innings of 2.82 ERA ball last season. This season’s 4.20 mark across 45 frames wasn’t as impressive, but Harvey punched out more than 26% of opponents behind a 13.4% swinging strike rate. The Royals viewed him as a late-game weapon and sent third base prospect Cayden Wallace plus the 39th pick in this summer’s draft to acquire him. They’ve gotten essentially nothing out of that deal, as Harvey allowed four runs over 5 2/3 innings before going on the shelf.

Kansas City controls Harvey for one more year via arbitration. The Royals would tender him a contract if they expect him to be back early in 2025, but a long-term injury could obviously change the calculus. He’d be due a small raise on this year’s $2.325MM sum.

McArthur operated as Kansas City’s closer for a time. He picked up 18 saves but also blew seven leads. McArthur’s heavy reliance on ground-balls without many whiffs plays better in the middle innings than it does in the ninth. His year concludes with a 4.92 ERA through 56 2/3 frames. The Royals are using deadline acquisition Lucas Erceg as their closer while turning high-leverage innings to converted starter Kris Bubic and left-hander Sam Long.

AL Central Notes: Moncada, Lorenzen, Larnach

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The White Sox told reporters (including James Fegan of Sox Machine) that third baseman Yoán Moncada will be activated for tomorrow’s game against the Angels. Moncada has been out with a left adductor strain since April 9. Prior to his injury, he was off to a relatively strong start in 2024, going 11-for-39 (.282) with a 122 wRC+ in 11 games.

Moncada has dealt with injuries in almost every season of his career, and outside of a phenomenal performance in 2019, he has struggled to live up to his top prospect billing. However, if he can be just a league-average hitter and a capable defender at third base, the 29-year-old will represent a huge upgrade for the White Sox lineup over the final two weeks of the season. Miguel Vargas, who has been starting for the club at third base since the trade deadline, is batting .112 with a .395 OPS so far in his brief tenure on the South Side. He has made four errors in just 27 games at third base, accruing -2 OAA and -2 DRS. The White Sox aren’t going to give up Vargas (himself a former top prospect) just yet, but there is no denying that Moncada should make for a significant improvement.

Chicago doesn’t have much to play for this year, but the club is still hoping to avoid setting a new modern-day record for most losses in a season. Meanwhile, Moncada is looking to make a strong impression before most likely entering free agency in the offseason; the White Sox are all but certain to turn down his $25MM club option for 2025 in favor of a $5MM buyout.

More from around the AL Central:

  • Michael Lorenzen was dominant over his first five starts with the Royals after the trade deadline (1.85 ERA in 24 1/3 IP) before a left hamstring strain forced him to the 15-day IL. He has not pitched since August 27. Lorenzen made his second rehab appearance this past Friday, and prior to the game, Anne Rogers of MLB.com noted the right-hander was likely to rejoin the team this coming week.  However, Rogers reported today that he was “more sore than normal” following his rehab outing, so the Royals will need to wait and see how he feels in the coming days before determining his next steps. The phrasing “more sore than normal” doesn’t necessarily suggest a serious setback, but it’s far less likely Lorenzen will be pitching in Kansas City this week.
  • Twins manager Rocco Baldelli revealed that outfielder/DH Trevor Larnach is playing through a hamstring injury (per Aaron Gleeman of The Athletic). That explains why he hasn’t played the field since last Tuesday. It also explains why, in Gleeman’s words, he’s running “at way less than full speed.” It’s surely concerning for the Twins that their cleanup hitter is nursing an injury, but Baldelli suggests the hamstring issue hasn’t had an impact on Larnach’s swing. That’s certainly a relief for Twins fans, considering how important Larnach has been to this offense. He rarely plays against left-handed pitching, but he has been one of Minnesota’s better bats when he has the platoon advantage. He boasts a team-leading 15 home runs and 47 RBI against right-handed pitching, with a .792 OPS and a 125 wRC+. The Twins will have to hope his hamstring injury doesn’t turn into anything more serious.

AL Notes: Buxton, Correa, Lorenzen, Cortes

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Byron Buxton was feeling discomfort in his hip as recently as Wednesday, and Betsy Helfand of the St. Paul Pioneer Press writes that this setback scuttled the Twins’ plans for Buxton to begin a minor league rehab assignment this weekend.  Right hip inflammation has kept Buxton on the injured list since the middle of August, depriving the Twins lineup of a big bat with 16 homers and a .275/.334/.528 slash line over 335 plate appearances.  While Minnesota has dealt with a number of injuries this season, losing Buxton seems to have been a particular blow to the roster, as the Twins are only 6-14 over their last 20 games.

Reinforcements are needed, yet there’s no word on when either Buxton or Carlos Correa might be able to start a rehab assignment, as manager Rocco Baldelli told Helfand and other reporters today.  Correa hasn’t played since July 12 due to plantar fasciitis in his right foot, and the shortstop has been feeling good while taking part in running drills.  This is “some level of significant, but we still have a ways to go,” Baldelli said.  “We’ll see if we can build on that and keep moving in a positive direction.”

Some other items from around the American League….

  • While Minnesota is struggling, the Royals rebounded from a seven-game losing streak with a three-game sweep of the Twins this weekend.  Kansas City is also getting healthier, as manager Matt Quartaro told MLB.com’s Anne Rogers and other reporters that Michael Lorenzen is slated to begin a minor league rehab assignment on Tuesday.  Lorezen was placed on the 15-day IL on August 28 due to a left hamstring strain, so the right-hander looks like he shouldn’t miss much time beyond the 15-day minimum.  Acquired from the Rangers in a deadline trade, Lorenzen had great results in his first five starts as a Royal, delivering a 1.85 ERA in 24 1/3 innings.
  • The returns of Luis Gil and Clarke Schmidt gave the Yankees a rotation surplus, relegating Nestor Cortes to a relief role as a piggyback pitcher behind Schmidt on Saturday.  “I’m never going to leave my teammates out to dry.  You’re always going to get my best effort, no matter if I’m happy or not,” Cortes told ESPN and other media, yet the left-hander also made it clear that he was “upset” over the role change.  “I felt like I’ve been, amongst all the starters, the workhorse here,” Cortes said.  “Once [Gerrit] Cole went down, they picked me to be the Opening Day starter — not necessarily the No. 1, but the Opening Day starter.  I had to switch my routine there.  Now they do this.”  After an injury-plagued 2023 season, Cortes has a 3.97 ERA over 163 1/3 innings this year, with an unimpressive set of Statcast metrics except for an excellent walk rate.  Cortes will return to starting duty when the Yankees adopt a six-man staff for the next turn through the rotation, yet it remains to be seen how New York deploys Cortes, Cole, Gil, Schmidt, Carlos Rodon, and Marcus Stroman for the remainder of the regular season and into the playoffs.

Royals Place Michael Lorenzen On Injured List

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The Royals have placed right-hander Michael Lorenzen on the 15-day injured list due to a strained left hamstring, per a team announcement. Righty Steven Cruz has been recalled from Triple-A Omaha in his place. Lorenzen sustained the injury yesterday when covering first base on a grounder.

Acquired in a deadline swap that sent lefty reliever Walter Pennington to the Rangers, Lorenzen has been a boon to the Kansas City rotation. In five starts, he’s pitched 24 1/3 innings of 1.85 ERA ball, striking out 17% of his opponents against a 10% walk rate. Metrics like FIP (4.20) and SIERA (5.11) aren’t nearly as bullish, given the righty’s pedestrian strikeout, walk and ground-ball rates.

Even if Lorenzen can’t be reasonably expected to continue producing a sub-2.00 ERA, the results thus far have been an unequivocal jolt for a team that had been struggling to get production from fifth starter Alec Marsh. Kansas City has won each of Lorenzen’s last three starts, and there’s little blame to be placed on him for the team’s loss in his Royals debut; he tossed 5 2/3 innings of one-run ball in a game the Royals eventually lost by a score of 6-5.

The Royals didn’t provide a timetable for Lorenzen’s return, but he’ll be down for at least two weeks. The aforementioned Marsh is the likeliest candidate to step back into the rotation in his stead. In 20 starts this season (plus one relief appearance), the 26-year-old Marsh has tossed 106 innings with a 4.67 earned run average.

Marsh’s 21.3% strikeout rate and 7.4% walk rate are both better than Lorenzen’s season-long marks between Texas and Kansas City, but he also faded significantly following a strong start to the season. Over his past eight trips to the mound, he’s been rocked for a 6.46 ERA and surrendered seven homers in 39 innings (1.62 HR/9). Marsh was sharp in four Triple-A starts this month after being optioned (1.80 ERA, 19-to-5 K/BB ratio in 15 innings), and the Royals will now need to hope for more of that type of output while Lorenzen mends.

As for the 25-year-old Cruz, this’ll be his first look with the Royals in 2024. He made his big league debut last year, pitching 12 2/3 innings with a 4.97 ERA and a 15-to-11 K/BB ratio in that short time. Kansas City acquired the hard-throwing righty in the 2022-23 offseason trade that sent Michael A. Taylor to the division-rival Twins. He’s pitched exclusively out of the Omaha bullpen this season and recorded a 3.35 ERA with a 26.6% strikeout rate and 11.1% walk rate in 48 1/3 innings. Cruz’s four-seamer has averaged 96.9 mph in Triple-A this season, and he’s primarily paired that pitch with a slider that sits at 89.4 mph.

Rangers Trade Michael Lorenzen To Royals

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The Rangers announced Monday morning that they’ve traded right-hander Michael Lorenzen to the Royals in exchange for minor league lefty Walter Pennington. Jon Heyman of the New York Post reported shortly before the announcement that Kansas City had been showing interest in Lorenzen. Pennington is on the 40-man roster, so no corresponding moves were necessary.

A trade of Lorenzen isn’t a signal that the third-place Rangers are punting on their season. There’s been plenty of talk over the past couple weeks that with Max Scherzer, Dane Dunning, Tyler Mahle and eventually Jacob deGrom all getting healthy, Texas could move an arm from its current rotation. Lorenzen, playing on an affordable one-year contract and slated to become a free agent at season’s end, has stood as the most obvious of the bunch to change hands. With Lorenzen headed to Kansas City, the Rangers’ rotation will include Scherzer, Nathan Eovaldi, Jon Gray, Andrew Heaney and perhaps Dunning — although Mahle is on the cusp of wrapping up a minor league rehab assignment and could take that fifth spot.

Lorenzen, 32, has pitched 101 2/3 innings with the Rangers and turned in a very solid 3.81 earned run average, although the rest of his numbers aren’t as encouraging. Lorenzen’s 17.9% strikeout rate is well below the 22.3% league average, while his 11.5% walk rate is considerably higher than the 8.2% league average. He’s kept the ball on the ground at a nice 42.3% clip, but Lorenzen has also benefited from a .243 average on balls in play and 80.7% strand rate that are both considerably better than his career marks of .279 and 74.2%. Some regression on one or both is likely.

Even with some regression, however, Lorenzen is a solid enough back-end starter. This year’s numbers are a decent approximation of who he’s been since reaching free agency three years ago and pursuing a career as a starting pitcher after previously spending five seasons in the Reds’ bullpen. Lorenzen posted a 4.20 ERA, 18.9% strikeout rate and 8.8% walk rate in 250 2/3 innings between the Angels, Tigers and Phillies over the 2022-23 seasons. Add in this year’s work and he’s at a 4.09 ERA with strikeout and walk rates that are worse-than-average but not egregiously so.

That’s a good indication of what to expect moving forward for the Royals, and Lorenzen has shown some flashes of higher output at times. His first two starts following a trade to the Phillies last summer will always be memorable for Phils fans; he tossed eight innings of two-run ball in his team debut and followed it up with a no-hitter against the Nationals his next time out, in his home debut at Citizens Bank Park. However, Lorenzen faded down the stretch, as he was pushing to a career-high innings workload (and also tossed a career-high 124 pitches in that no-hitter). The Phils moved him to the bullpen late in the season.

Kansas City’s rotation is generally full, with Cole Ragans, Seth Lugo, Brady Singer, Michael Wacha and Alec Marsh representing a sound one through five. Marsh has been hit hard after a solid start to the season, however, yielding a 6.37 ERA over his past 10 starts. He’s had a few solid outings mixed in throughout that stretch, but since May 27 he’s given up at least three runs in eight of his 10 starts (and at least four in six of them).

Lorenzen could step into that rotation spot, perhaps pushing Marsh to the bullpen or even to Triple-A Omaha. Lorenzen has already pitched enough innings to boost his $4.5MM base salary to $5.5MM, and he’d earn bonuses of $300K, $350K, $400K and $450K for reaching 120, 140, 160 and 180 innings, respectively. The Royals could technically use Lorenzen in the bullpen — they just saw both John Schreiber and Hunter Harvey exit their most recent game due to injury — but that’d be somewhat of a surprising usage given that they traded a big league-ready reliever who’s in the midst of a terrific Triple-A season in order to acquire Lorenzen.

Pennington, 26, will join the Rangers and give them an immediate option out of the ’pen. The Rangers haven’t been able to find a consistently effective lefty relief option this season, but Pennington could fit that bill. Undrafted in the shortened 2020 draft, the 6’2″, 205-pound southpaw signed out of the Colorado School of Mines — and earlier this season became just the second player from that school to ever reach the majors (and the first since Roy Hartzell back in 1906).

The Royals called Pennington up for a brief debut, but he threw just two-thirds of an inning before being sent back down to Omaha. He’s been lights-out with the Storm Chasers this season, pitching to a pristine 2.26 ERA with a 32.9% strikeout rate, an 8.3% walk rate and a 52.6% ground-ball rate in 59 2/3 frames. Pennington sits 92-93 mph with a sinker, 89-90 mph with his cutter and 83-85 mph with a slider, rounding out a trio of primary offerings. More than half of his pitches this year have been sliders, and he’s held both lefties and righties in check along the way, yielding near-identical batting lines of .198/.250/.286 (to righties) and .156/.262/.278 (to lefties).

Pennington is in the first of three minor league option years. He can’t reach a full year of big league service in 2024, meaning the Rangers will control him through the 2030 season at the very least (although future optional assignments could push that free agent trajectory back even further). He makes for a potential long-term option in the Texas bullpen — a nice pull for a rental starter whose spot in the rotation was in jeopardy given the sheer volume of veteran arms the Rangers have coming back from injury.

Latest On Rangers’ Deadline Plans

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The Rangers made their first move of the summer earlier this evening by dealing a pair of prospects to the Tigers in exchange for catcher Carson Kelly, who figures to replace Andrew Knizner in the club’s catching tandem alongside 2023 All-Star Jonah Heim. The move confirms that the reigning World Series champs won’t be full-blown sellers despite a lackluster 51-55 record that leaves them 4.5 games back of the Astros and Mariners in the AL West, but that doesn’t mean the club necessarily plans to buy exclusively in the coming days, either.

As noted by Joel Sherman of the New York Post in a report this evening, the Rangers are making right-hander Michael Lorenzen available on the trade market. The news comes after The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal suggested that Lorenzen (as well as right-hander Jon Gray) could be made available prior to the deadline earlier this week. The 32-year-old Lorenzen has pitched solidly as a back-of-the-rotation option for Texas this year with a 3.87 ERA in 18 starts, though the veteran’s 5.26 FIP and 11.9% walk rate could be worrisome to prospective buyers.

In a sellers’ market starved for pitching options, it’s easy to imagine how a pitcher like Lorenzen who has plenty of experience both as a starter and as a reliever could be an attractive trade target even in spite of worrisome peripheral numbers. Meanwhile, dealing Lorenzen would allow the Rangers to recoup some long-term value for a pending free agent who could be forced out of his current role on the team by the impending returns of Tyler Mahle, Jacob deGrom, and Cody Bradford from injury.

That doesn’t mean that Lorenzen is a lock to be moved, however, as Jeff Wilson of Rangers Today writes that the Rangers could opt to take the right-hander off the market in the aftermath of Gray exiting his start today without throwing a pitch due to a groin injury. As noted by Shawn McFarland of the Dallas Morning News, Gray is set to undergo imaging to determine the severity of the issue. With none of Mahle, Bradford, nor deGrom likely to be ready to step into the club’s rotation just yet, a significant absence for Gray could complicate the club’s plans to deal Lorenzen by leaving them with only Nathan Eovaldi, Max Scherzer, and Andrew Heaney as active members of the starting rotation.

Wilson goes on to suggest, however, the Lorenzen isn’t the only name the club could consider shopping in the coming days. Wilson reports that first baseman Nathaniel Lowe’s “name has surfaced” as a potential trade chip for the Rangers this summer amid an excellent July that has boosted his overall season slash line to .266/.361/.390 (114 wRC+). While Lowe could certainly be a potentially valuable addition for certain teams, two of the most obvious suitors for a first baseman this deadline are the Rangers’ own division rivals in Houston and Seattle. Even in an age where intradivisional trading has become more common, its hard to imagine the Rangers helping either the Astros or Mariners improve in the short terms as they look to chase them down for the AL West title this year. Still, it’s possible the Rangers are able to find a suitor for Lowe’s services elsewhere, such as in Pittsburgh where the Pirates could look to upgrade over Rowdy Tellez at first base.

The loss of Lowe from the lineup would further weaken a beleaguered Rangers offense, but Wilson goes on to suggest that dealing Lowe could open up a spot in the club’s lineup for Rays first baseman Yandy Diaz. Diaz is currently on the restricted list due to an undisclosed personal matter, but the Rangers were connected to him earlier this week. Diaz has slashed just .272/.327/.400 (111 wRC+) this year following a slow start to the season but is just one year removed from a sixth-place finish in AL MVP voting with the Rays last season.

The 32-year-old is controllable through the 2026 season just like Lowe is, and it’s theoretically possible that the Rangers could look to upgrade first base while retaining the same amount of team control should they manage to land Diaz while shipping Lowe elsewhere. Alternatively, it’s certainly feasible that the club could retain both players and utilize one as their primary DH for the remainder of the 2024 campaign before looking to trade one this winter should the club decide to commit fully to buying this summer. Such a move would provide an undeniable boost to the Texas offense, which has gotten an MLB-worst 57 wRC+ from the DH spot in the lineup this year.

Latest On Rangers’ Rotation, Trade Possibilities

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The Rangers have patched together their rotation for much of the season as they anticipate the returns of veterans Max Scherzer, Tyler Mahle and Jacob deGrom. Scherzer has already returned. Mahle is set to make his fifth minor league rehab start today and should make his Rangers debut before long. It’ll be a bit longer before deGrom makes it back, but he tossed a 40-pitch bullpen just yesterday, per Jeff Wilson of RangersToday.com. Left-hander Cody Bradford is on a minor league rehab assignment and expected to return soon, though Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News writes that he’ll work out of the bullpen upon his return. Texas reinstated righty Dane Dunning from the injured list earlier today, too. He’s in the ’pen for now but could move back to a starting role depending on how the next week goes.

What once was a starting pitching hodgepodge looks increasingly enviable. If Mahle is cleared to return after today’s start, he’ll join Scherzer, Nathan Eovaldi, Jon Gray, Michael Lorenzen, Andrew Heaney and Dunning as viable rotation options, with Bradford in the bullpen and deGrom looming on the horizon. That’s nine MLB-caliber starters, to say nothing of veteran starter Jose Ureña (who started six games but is in the bullpen presently).

With so many options suddenly at their fingertips, there’s been plenty of speculation about the Rangers trading from that stockpile of arms — even as they narrow the deficit in the postseason hunt. Texas has won four straight games. The Mariners have lost three straight. The Rangers now sit only three games back of the first-place Astros in the West and are just 5.5 games out in the Wild Card hunt. They’re not going to operate as a pure seller, but Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic suggests that Lorenzen or perhaps even Gray could be moved before Tuesday’s trade deadline.

Lorenzen, 32, signed with the Rangers on a one-year, $4.5MM deal in spring training. It was a bargain price for a veteran righty coming off a solid season, and he’s proven to be well worth the investment. He’s pitched 97 innings over the course of 17 starts and turned in a 3.53 ERA. Lorenzen’s 18.5% strikeout rate and 11.6% walk rate both leave plenty to be desired and point to some likely ERA regression, but he’s been precisely the type of veteran rotation stabilizer the Rangers hoped to be acquiring when signing him.

As of deadline day, Lorenzen will have just $1.5MM of that base salary yet to be paid out. He’s already picked up $800K of innings-based incentives and will get another $200K when he reaches 100 innings, likely in his next start. Assuming that comes with the Rangers — he’s their probable starter Saturday — a new team would be on the hook for the remaining portion of his base and additional incentives he’d unlock by reaching 120 innings ($300K), 140 innings ($350K), 160 innings ($400K) and 180 innings ($450K). He’s on pace to barely reach that final milestone.

At most, a team adding Lorenzen would pay around $1.5MM in base salary and an additional $1.5MM worth of incentives. If Lorenzen is pitching well enough to reach that 180-inning mark, it’d be considered money well spent. If nothing else, a budget-conscious team looking to add a stable starter (e.g. Twins, Guardians) could view Lorenzen as an affordable option.

Gray would be a more surprising trade candidate. He’s in the third season of a four-year, $56MM contract that’s paying $13MM both this year and next. Thus far, he’s posted 94 innings of 3.73 ERA ball on the season. While Gray’s 19.7% strikeout rate is the lowest of his career (aside from the shortened 2020 season), his 5.8% walk rate is a career-best mark. He’s still averaging 95 mph with his heater, while his opponents’ chase rate and swinging-strike rate are roughly in line with his 2022-23 marks.

Rosenthal also cites a pair of names the Rangers would prefer to hang onto even as they ponder trading from their rotation depth: Eovaldi and Heaney. The former is well on his way to vesting a $20MM player option for the 2025 season. That option would decrease his trade value — a new team would be stuck with the $20MM in the event of a major, post-trade injury. Beyond that, Eovaldi has been one of the team’s best arms this season, notching a 3.31 ERA, 24.6% strikeout rate and 6.1% walk rate in 106 innings. He’d likely be ticketed for their playoff rotation, should they get there. And, even if they don’t, the Rangers might simply hope Eovaldi stays healthy and enjoys pitching in his home state enough that he’d pick up that player option for the 2025 season.

As for Heaney, he’s turned things around after a shaky first season in Texas. The veteran southpaw boasts a 3.60 ERA, 23.5% strikeout rate and 6.8% walk rate in exactly 100 innings. He’s a free agent at season’s end, so one would imagine he’s an on-paper trade candidate in this scenario where Texas deals from its excess. However, the Rangers don’t have an established left-hander in their bullpen. Brock Burke was excellent in 2022 but took a step back in ’23 and was optioned earlier this season after being shelled through 9 2/3 innings. Rookie Jacob Latz has a solid 3.68 ERA in 36 2/3 innings, but he’s walked 13.5% of his opponents. Bradford could possibly fill that role, but he’s yet to return from a stress reaction in his ribcage.

Heaney has experience pitching both as a starter and reliever, including during his time with Texas. He’s throwing well right now but would likely be pushed out of a theoretical postseason rotation. In that setting, he could slide into the bullpen and match up against tough lefties and/or provide multiple innings in long relief.

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