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Reds Place Nick Lodolo On Injured List

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The Reds announced that left-hander Nick Lodolo has been placed on the 15-day injured list, retroactive to August 24, due to a left middle finger sprain. Right-hander Casey Legumina was recalled in a corresponding move.

To this point, the Reds haven’t provided any information about how long Lodolo is expected to be out, but it’s a frustrating development nonetheless. This will be the lefty’s fourth IL stint of the season, as he has already made separate trips there due to left calf tenosynovitis, a left groin strain and a left finger blister.

This latest IL trip, whether it proves to be significant or mild, adds to a lengthy injury problem for both player and team. Lodolo also missed most of last year due to various problems in his left leg, only making seven starts on the campaign. He had an encouraging debut season in 2022, posting a 3.66 ERA over 19 starts. But the past two campaigns have been mostly defined by his lack of health and he has posted a 5.11 ERA while healthy enough to take the mound. Despite all the missed time, Lodolo will reach three years of service at season’s end and qualify for arbitration, though the injury absences will cut into his earning power.

Lodolo’s woes have been part of a constellation of injury problems for the Reds this year. Much of their projected lineup has spent at least some time out of action and the pitching staff is currently in really rough shape. Lodolo joins Hunter Greene and Andrew Abbott on the IL, putting three of the clubs best starters on ice. That’s in addition to guys like Graham Ashcraft, Brandon Williamson and Christian Roa, who are also on the IL.

The Reds also traded Frankie Montas prior to the deadline, so their rotation looks far different than it did a month ago. Jakob Junis, acquired in the Montas deal, is stepping in to start today’s game. He has started in the past but hasn’t thrown more than 2 1/3 innings in any outing during the past month. He might have some workload limitations today but could perhaps be stretched out to help the Reds finish the season.

The rest of the rotation consists of Nick Martinez, Carson Spiers and Julian Aguiar. Martinez and Spiers have been in swing roles this year but have been needed in the rotation due to the aforementioned issues. Aguiar is a rookie with just two major league starts under his belt.

The Reds were off yesterday but today are starting a stretch of playing eight games in seven days, so they will need a fifth starter or some bulk innings at some point. Williamson is starting a rehab assignment but will presumably need some time to ramp up. Lyon Richardson and Connor Phillips are on the 40-man roster but neither has been posting great results this year. Justus Sheffield is around in a non-roster role but isn’t pitching well either. Prospect Rhett Lowder has just one start above Double-A and isn’t yet on the 40-man roster.

It’s a less than ideal situation for the stretch of a disappointing season. The Reds came into the year with postseason aspirations but the massive slate of injuries have handcuffed them all year. They are currently eight games out of a playoff spot and it will be very difficult to climb back into the picture with so many of their starters out of action.

Orioles Claim Brooks Kriske, Designate Nick Vespi For Assignment

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The Orioles announced that right-hander Brooks Kriske was claimed off waivers from the Reds, then assigned to Triple-A Norfolk.  As reported by MASNsports.com’s Roch Kubatko (X link) earlier today, left-hander Nick Vespi was designated for assignment to create an opening on Baltimore’s 40-man roster.

Cincinnati designed Kriske for assignment earlier this week, and the righty now returns to one of his former teams.  Kriske posted a 12.27 ERA over four games and 3 2/3 innings with the Orioles in 2021, before the O’s released him following the season so Kriske could sign with the Yokohama BayStars of Nippon Professional Baseball.  After his season in Japan, Kriske returned to North America on a minors deal with the Royals and delivered a 4.05 ERA in 6 2/3 innings in 2023, before heading back to NPB for a brief stint with the Seibu Lions.

Kriske then signed a minors deal with the Reds this past winter, and didn’t see any big league action despite a brief stint on Cincinnati’s active roster back in June.  He had a 3.10 ERA and eye-opening 36.7% strikeout rate in 49 1/3 innings at Triple-A Louisville, albeit with the red flags of an inflated 14.8% walk rate and a very favorable .205 BABIP.  The numbers essentially continue the story of Kriske’s career, as the 30-year-old has long struggled with his control while also missing a lot of bats.

The resume was intriguing enough for the Orioles to bring Kriske in for another look in the organization, though if he does get called up to the majors, Kriske lacks some flexibility since he is out of minor league options.  Vespi is in his final option year, and he has been recalled and demoted from Triple-A the maximum five times this season, which undoubtedly factored into Baltimore’s decision to send the southpaw to the DFA wire.

Vespi has frequently been shuttled back and forth between Baltimore and Norfolk during his three Major League seasons, as the O’s haven’t felt compelled to give Vespi an extended look despite some pretty solid performance.  Vespi has a 3.88 ERA over his 53 1/3 career MLB innings, including a 2.92 ERA in 12 1/3 frames in 2024.  In something of the inverse of Kriske, Vespi is a control specialist (5.9% walk rate in the bigs) who doesn’t record many strikeouts (20.9K%).

Strangely, Vespi’s walk rate has gone through the roof during his time at Triple-A this season, with a huge 15.9% walk rate contributing to his 7.71 ERA over 37 1/3 innings in Norfolk.  Both the walk rate and the ERA seem like outliers against Vespi’s otherwise solid career record at the Triple-A level, and other teams might not be dissuaded from putting in a waiver claim to obtain his rights.

Hunter Greene Avoids UCL Damage, MRI Reveals Elbow Inflammation

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When Reds ace Hunter Greene was first placed on the 15-day injured list last week, there was some optimism that the right-hander would only require a minimum stay on the shelf to combat the issue. Unfortunately, that hope has faded in the aftermath of an MRI on Greene’s elbow that revealed inflammation. As noted by Gordon Wittenmyer of the Cincinnati Enquirer, the club received three medical opinions on Greene’s arm confirmed that the ace’s UCL has not been damaged in what Bell and Greene have described as a “best case scenario.”

While that’s certainly heartening news for Reds fans, Wittenmyer notes that Greene now appears to be ticketed for an absence that will extend well past the minimum 15 days previously hoped for, as the right-hander is now not expected to resume throwing until the inflammation dissipates, which Greene suggested could take as long as two weeks. With just over a month left to go in the regular season and Cincinnati’s playoff hopes this season remote at best, that timeline could call into question whether or not the hard-throwing righty will be able to return this year. As relayed by Wittenmyer, Greene was noncommittal about his timeline for return, though he did note he hopes to pitch again this year:

“I have no clue,” Greene said when asked when he’ll be able to return. “I’d like to be able to finish with two or three more starts, but I’ve got to see how I feel in a few days or a week.”

While it does not currently appear guaranteed that Greene will be able to return to the big league mound this season, it certainly can’t be ruled out. If Greene remains shut down for two weeks, he would resume throwing in early September. It’s at least feasible to imagine that he would be able to go out for a brief rehab assignment in the middle of the month before making a couple of starts in the final weeks of the season, though such a timeline would likely require no setbacks and a somewhat limited pitch count for Greene upon his return.

Regardless of whether or note Greene is able to make it back to the big leagues this year, the fact that his UCL remains undamaged and he figures to be fully healthy for Spring Training 2025 is surely heartening news for the Reds. Even if he doesn’t throw another pitch for the club this year, Greene’s 2024 season has been an unequivocal success as he’s posted a dominant 2.83 ERA in 143 1/3 innings across 24 starts. While Greene’s 9.1% walk rate and batted ball profiles have left advanced stats somewhat less impressed with his work this year (3.41 FIP, 3.75 SIERA, 4.16 xFIP), his excellent results are backed up by premium stuff that’s allowed him to post a 27.8% strikeout rate this year.

With Greene’s breakout allowing the Reds to pencil a bonafide top-of-the-rotation arm into their rotation next season, it’s not hard to imagine much brighter days ahead in Cincinnati despite their lackluster 63-67 record this season. After all, the club figures to benefit not only from the dynamic duo of Greene and Elly De La Cruz but also returns to action from key youngsters like Matt McLain and Christian Encarnacion-Strand who were hampered by injuries this year.

Reds Select Casey Kelly

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The Reds have selected the contract of right-hander Casey Kelly, per a club announcement. Right-hander Alan Busenitz was designated for assignment to make room for Kelly on the club’s 40-man and active rosters.

Kelly, 34, was a first-round pick in the 2008 draft and a consensus top-100 prospect early in his pro career with the Red Sox. Kelly was packaged with Anthony Rizzo in the deal that brought Adrian Gonzalez to Boston from San Diego, and Kelly’s pedigree as a top pitching prospect helped him to reach the majors during just his second year in the Padres organization. That big league debut left much to be desired, as Kelly pitched to a lackluster 6.21 ERA in 29 innings of work across six starts with the Padres during the 2012 season. Tommy John surgery wiped out Kelly’s entire 2013 season, and he wouldn’t make it back to the majors until 2015 when he surrendered 13 runs (10 earned) in just 11 1/3 innings of work across three appearances.

That ended Kelly’s Padres tenure, and while he briefly found a role with the Braves as a multi-inning reliever during the 2016 season, he wouldn’t find success in the majors until 2018, six years after his big league debut. In San Francisco, Kelly did quite well while swinging between the rotation and bullpen, but even that success was short-lived as his 3.04 ERA spanned just seven appearances and 23 2/3 innings of work. Kelly’s brief stint with the Giants evidently earned him some attention overseas, however, as after parting ways with the Giants he went on to pitch in parts of six seasons for the Korea Baseball Organization’s LG Twins.

In Korea, Kelly was a rotation stalwart who made between 27 and 30 starts each year from 2019 to 2023 while never posting an ERA higher than 3.83. Kelly reportedly received some stateside interest this past offseason but chose to remain overseas, though his sixth season in the KBO did not go particularly well as he struggled to a 4.51 ERA in 19 starts before being cut loose last month. That led him back to affiliated ball, where he signed a minor league deal with the Reds and was assigned to Triple-A Louisville. Kelly was managed by his father, Pat Kelly, while pitching for Louisville and performed decently in two starts, with a 4.50 ERA despite a strikeout rate of just 5.6%. Recent injuries to Hunter Greene and Andrew Abbott have now opened the door for Kelly to make his first big league appearance since 2018, and the journeyman figures to provide Cincinnati with multi-inning relief depth out of the bullpen while the club utilizes a patchwork rotation featuring Julian Aguilar and Carson Spiers alongside Nick Lodolo and Nick Martinez.

Making way for Kelly on the 40-man and active rosters is Busenitz, who departs the club after making just one appearance in the majors this year. In a disastrous relief outing for the Reds yesterday, the right-hander surrendered four runs (three of which were earned) on four hits while failing to strike out a batter in his single inning of work. Busenitz also pitched for the Reds last year and did quite well in a limited role with a 2.57 ERA and 2.26 FIP across seven frames. Busenitz’s time with the Reds was his first taste of big league action in nearly half a decade, as he spent four seasons pitching for the Tohoku Rakuten Golden Eagles of Japan’s Nippon Professional Baseball from 2019 to 2022. The majority of Busenitz’s limited big league experience came prior to his time overseas, when he pitched to a middling 4.58 ERA in 51 appearances across the 2017 and ’18 seasons in Minnesota.

Reds Place Andrew Abbott On Injured List Due To Shoulder Strain

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The Reds announced that left-hander Andrew Abbott has been placed on the 15-day injured list, retroactive to August 20, due to a left shoulder strain. Right-hander Alan Busenitz has been selected to take his place on the roster. To open a 40-man spot for Busenitz, catcher Austin Wynns has been transferred to the 60-day injured list.

At this point, the club hasn’t provided any information on when Abbott suffered the injury or how long they expect him to be out. He last took the ball on Sunday, tossing 83 pitches over five innings. His velocity was down a bit, per Statcast, with his fastball averaging 91.6 miles per hour. He was at 92.6 mph the previous start, perhaps indicating he wasn’t 100% last time out.

Regardless, it’s an unfortunate development for the Reds and their rotation. Abbott has been a mainstay this year, with a 3.72 ERA over his 25 starts on the season. Him and Hunter Greene are the two team leaders in innings but Greene landed on the IL last week due to elbow soreness. With Abbott now joining Greene on the IL, the club is without the two pillars of their rotation. That’s on top of Graham Ashcraft and Brandon Williamson, who are also on the IL.

Absences have been a key storyline for the Reds this year. In addition to those pitching issues, their position player mix currently has Wynns, Jeimer Candelario, Jake Fraley, Christian Encarnacion-Strand, Matt McLain and Nick Martini on the IL. They also didn’t have Noelvi Marté for the first 80 games of the year due to a PED suspension, lost TJ Friedl to the IL for a while, amid other issues.

Despite those challenges, the club is 63-64 and hanging in the playoff race. They are currently five games back of Atlanta for the final postseason spot in the National League, but staying afloat will be more challenging with the rotation in such trouble. Abbott was the scheduled starter today, so the club may have to do some kind of bullpen game, then proceed with a rotation consisting of Nick Lodolo, Nick Martinez, Carson Spiers and Julian Aguiar. Spiers and Martinez are swingmen who have moved into rotation roles due to injuries while Aguiar was just called up and has one major league start to his name.

The club has an off-day on Monday but then plays eight games in seven days thanks to a double-header next Friday, meaning they may have to call upon some depth. Lyon Richardson is on the 40-man roster but has been pitching in relief lately. Connor Phillips has a 9.92 ERA in Triple-A this year and just returned from a two-month stint at the club’s spring complex trying to get back on track. Prospect Rhett Lowder is at Triple-A but was just promoted there and has only one start at that level. Justus Sheffield is around in a non-roster capacity but has a 6.88 ERA in Triple-A this year.

For now, Busenitz will give the club a fresh arm for their bullpen. He signed a minor league deal with the club in January and has logged 55 innings over 40 Triple-A appearances this year. He has a 3.93 ERA in that time, along with a 22.3% strikeout rate and 7.9% walk rate. He is out of options and can’t be sent back down to the minors without first being exposed to waivers.

Wynns landed on the 10-day IL at the end of July due to a lat strain. It seems the club isn’t expecting him back any time soon, as he’s now ineligible to return until the final days of the regular season.

Reds Designate Brooks Kriske For Assignment

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The Reds announced that they have signed first baseman Dominic Smith, a move that was previously reported. He takes the active roster spot of outfielder Jake Fraley, who has been placed on the 10-day injured list with a right knee sprain, retroactive to August 21. To open a 40-man spot for Smith, the Reds have designated right-hander Brooks Kriske for assignment.

Kriske, 30, signed a minor league deal with the Reds in the offseason. He was selected to the roster June 17 but wasn’t put into that day’s game and was optioned after it ended. That means he’s been stuck in Triple-A all year, where his numbers have been solid. He has tossed 49 1/3 innings, allowing 3.10 earned runs per nine. His 14.8% walk rate is quite high but he has also punched out 36.7% of batters faced.

That’s not totally out of character for him. He has 21 2/3 major league innings with an 11.22 ERA in that small sample, striking out 24.3% of batters faced while walking 16.5%. In 108 minor league innings dating back to the start of 2021, he has a 3.92 ERA, 13.2% walk rate and 36.8% strikeout rate.

With the trade deadline now in the rear-view mirror, the Reds will have to place him on waivers in the coming days. The lack of control is obviously a concern but the big strikeout numbers are enticing. If any club puts in a claim, Kriske has less than a year of service time. He is in his final option year and will be out of options as of next season.

Reds To Sign Dominic Smith

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The Reds are signing first baseman Dominic Smith to a major league deal, per Jeff Passan of ESPN on X. He was released by the Red Sox earlier this week. Whenever the deal becomes official, the Reds will need to make a corresponding move or moves to get Smith onto their active and 40-man rosters.

Smith, 29, was signed by the Red Sox to replace an injured Triston Casas at first base. He was a solid but not outstanding fill-in for Boston. He got into 84 games and hit .237/.317/.390 for a wRC+ of 95. That indicates he was 5% worse than league average at the plate, hardly disastrous but also not great for a position that generally has high offensive expectations.

When Casas returned from the IL, the Sox designated him for assignment. As a veteran player, he had more than enough service time to reject an outright assignment, so the Sox skipped that formality and released him. He became a free agent, allowing him to now sign with the Reds.

The club in Cincinnati has been hovering around contention and clearly still considers themselves to be in it. Though they traded Frankie Montas to the Brewers at the deadline, among other moves, they also added first baseman Ty France from the Mariners. Since the deadline, they claimed infielder Amed Rosario off waivers from the Dodgers and have now brought Smith into the mix as well.

Adding France and now Smith is due to the first base spot taking a few hits this year. Jeimer Candelario recently landed on the injured list due to a toe fracture while Christian Encarnacion-Strand has been out for months due to wrist surgery. Spencer Steer can also play some first but he’s been in the outfield mix lately.

With France and Smith both on the roster, perhaps one will be at first base and the other in the designated hitter slot, but a platoon is also possible. Smith is a lefty and has a career .245/.311/.417 line and 98 wRC+ with the platoon advantage, along with a .254/.324/.367 line and 92 wRC+ without it. France is a righty with fairly neutral platoon splits in his career, though there’s a wider gap this year. He has slashed .244/.358/.389 against lefties in 2024 for a 122 wRC+, .221/.293/.362 against righties for a 90 wRC+.

The Reds are 5.5 games back of a Wild Card spot in the National League right now, but would have to leapfrog five different clubs to snag a spot. If they manage to succeed, Smith will be eligible for their postseason roster since he’s being signed prior to September 1.

Joey Votto Announces Retirement

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Joey Votto has stepped away from baseball. The star first baseman, who had been on a minor league contract with the Blue Jays, announced his retirement on Instagram on Wednesday evening. He didn’t get to the majors with his hometown team but played an illustrious 17-year career with the Reds.

Votto provided a lengthy statement alongside a brief video of him departing Sahlen Field, home of the Jays’ Triple-A affiliate in Buffalo. Votto thanked his family, various former teammates and coaches, and the fans. He expressed some regret that he wasn’t able to make it to the big leagues with the Jays, adding that he’s “just not good anymore” before thanking the Canadian fanbase for their support and expressing his love for Cincinnati. “I was myself in this sport. I was able to be my best self. I played this sport with every last ounce of my body, heart, and mind. Thank you for everything,” he concluded.

The Reds drafted Votto out of a Toronto prep school in 2002. He’d emerged as one of Baseball America’s top 50 prospects by the time he hit his way to Triple-A five years later. Votto debuted as a September call-up in ’07. He hit the ground running in 24 games and would break through as their everyday first baseman the following year.

Votto hit .297/.368/.506 with 24 homers and 32 doubles in his first full season. He finished runner-up to Cubs catcher Geovany Soto in Rookie of the Year balloting. Votto emerged as an elite hitter by year two, hitting .322/.414/.567 with 25 longballs and 38 doubles. He finished in the top 10 among qualifiers in all three slash stats.

That kicked off a nearly decade-long run during which Votto was among the game’s best players. He had arguably his best season in 2010. Votto led the majors with a .424 on-base percentage and topped the National League with an even .600 slugging mark. He hit .324 with 37 homers and a career-best 113 runs batted in. It was a dominating performance by counting and rate stats alike that nabbed him a rather convincing win over Albert Pujols and Carlos González in NL MVP balloting. Votto was the best player on a Cincinnati team that won 91 games and an NL Central title.

It was the first of four straight seasons in which the lefty hitter topped the NL in on-base percentage. He led the league in walks every year from 2011-13. His extraordinarily patient approach occasionally made him a target of criticism among some fans who preferred he were more aggressive, but Votto also filled a prototypical run producer role. He ranked 20th in RBI and 21st in homers among MLB hitters between 2010-13. Among hitters with 1500+ plate appearances, only Miguel Cabrera and Joe Mauer hit for a better average. Votto led the majors in OBP and ranked seventh in slugging. Votto made the All-Star Game in all four seasons and thrice finished in the top 10 in MVP voting. Cincinnati made the playoffs in three of those years, although they never advanced past the Division Series.

Midway through that run, the Reds committed to Votto as the face of their franchise. They signed him to a 10-year, $225MM extension early in the 2012 season. It remains the biggest investment in the organization’s history. While the team didn’t have a ton of success over the decade, that’s not any fault of their first baseman. He remained an impact hitter until the tail end of the contract.

A quad injury wiped out the bulk of Votto’s 2014 campaign. He returned at full strength the following year, hitting .314/.459/.541 to snag a third-place MVP finish. He would lead the NL in on-base percentage in each of the three seasons after that, earning two more top 10 MVP placements in the process. Between 2015-18, he hit .312/.442/.525 with 106 homers while walking more often than he struck out.

The 2018 season was the final of Votto’s six All-Star campaigns. His production tailed off between 2019-20 and it seemed he’d firmly entered the decline phase of his career. While that was the case to some extent, Votto had one more excellent year ahead of him. He rebounded with a surprising 36-homer outburst (tied for the second-most he hit in any season) with a .266/.375/.563 slash in 2021. That proved to be his last strong season, as he stumbled to replacement level numbers while battling shoulder issues between 2022-23.

Votto earned a well-deserved salute from Cincinnati fans in his final game at Great American Ball Park last September. The guaranteed portion of his contract wrapped up and the Reds made the obvious call to buy him out in lieu of a costly club option for 2024. Votto signed the minor league deal with the Jays during the only free agent trip of his career. He suffered an ankle injury in his first Spring Training game, keeping him on the IL well into July. Votto returned to action midway through the month but hit .143 in 15 Triple-A contests before deciding it was time to move on.

While that keeps him from ever appearing in a Jays uniform at Rogers Centre, it allows him to retire having spent his entire MLB career with one team. He’s one of the best players in Reds’ history and is among the most productive first basemen in league history. Votto will surely garner serious Hall of Fame consideration when his name appears on the ballot in five years.

By Jay Jaffe’s JAWS metric (designed to provide a comparison point for players against Hall of Famers), Votto ranks 12th among first basemen. The 11 players above him are either in the Hall of Fame or, in the cases of Pujols and Cabrera, locks for induction when first eligible. The player just behind Votto, Rafael Palmeiro, is not in the Hall, largely because of his ties to performance-enhancing drugs. The following three players — Willie McCovey, Todd Helton and Eddie Murray — were all inducted.

Votto didn’t provide quite the level of power associated with a Hall of Fame first baseman. He steps away with 356 homers (29th at the position) and 1144 runs batted in (49th). Those are no small accomplishments for the vast majority of players, of course, but Votto’s overall excellence was driven primarily by his on-base ability. He finishes his career with a .294 average and a huge .409 on-base percentage. He led the NL in the latter category on seven occasions.

While Votto surprisingly never won a Silver Slugger award — overlapping in the NL with Pujols and Paul Goldschmidt during his prime played a role — he had six top 10 MVP finishes. He earned a Gold Glove in 2011 and the aforementioned MVP honors the year prior. Baseball Reference valued Votto’s career around 64 wins above replacement, while FanGraphs credited him with 59 WAR. That’s right at the threshold at which position players tend to receive legitimate Hall of Fame consideration.

Votto would certainly have offers to stay involved in the game if he wishes to do so. He complemented his litany of on-field accomplishments with a cerebral approach to hitting and a sarcastic wit that’d no doubt provide coaching or media opportunities if he wanted to take them. Votto didn’t tip his hand in his retirement announcement about any plans for the future. We at MLBTR congratulate him on a fantastic career and wish him the best in his post-playing days.

Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.

Jeimer Candelario Placed On Injured List With Toe Fracture

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The Reds announced that infielder Amed Rosario, recently claimed off waivers from the Dodgers, has reported to the team and been added to the active roster. In a corresponding move, fellow infielder Jeimer Candelario has been placed on the 10-day injured list with a left great toe fracture.

It hasn’t been officially relayed by the club when Candelario suffered this injury or how long they expect him to be out. In Sunday’s game against the Royals, he was hit by a pitch on his foot in the second inning, just before the umpires decided it was time for a rain delay. He did finish that game and also served as the designated hitter against the Blue Jays last night, but perhaps he didn’t realize he was playing through a fracture, or maybe did realize it but was just waiting for Rosario to join the club before heading to the IL.

Either way, it’s the latest in a remarkable series of events that have subtracted from the Cincinnati infield this year. The Reds signed Candelario to a three-year, $45MM deal in the offseason, which seemed unnecessary at the time. The Reds already had an infield mix consisting of Elly De La Cruz, Matt McLain, Jonathan India, Christian Encarnacion-Strand, Noelvi Marté and Spencer Steer. That was arguably already a surplus and Candelario made the picture even more crowded.

But that surplus quickly evaporated before the season even started. In March, Marté was hit with an 80-game PED suspension and McLain required shoulder surgery. Marté has since returned after serving his suspension but McLain has yet to make his season debut. Encarnacion-Strand struggled out of the gate and hit the injured list in May, eventually requiring surgery for an ulnar styloid fracture in his right wrist. With all of those injuries in their infield, and some in the outfield as well, the club only has four players who currently qualify for the batting title: De La Cruz, India, Steer and Candelario.

But now Candelario is set to miss some time as well, putting his first season in Cincinnati on pause. It’s been a bit of a disappointing year for him, despite his 20 home runs. He’s hit .225/.279/.429 overall for a wRC+ of 88, a noticeable drop from last year’s line of .251/.336/.471 and 118 wRC+. It’s possible some bad luck could explain the drop-off, as his .257 batting average on balls in play this year is well below the .290 league average and his own .292 mark from last year, but his Statcast metrics are all a bit less potent than last year’s.

It’s also possible that injuries have played a role there. On June 21, members of the club’s beat indicated Candelario has been battling knee tendinitis, with Charlie Goldsmith of the Cincinnati Enquirer among those to pass it along. Candelario had a .255/.310/.506 batting line and 118 wRC+ on that date but has hit just .182/.233/.318 for a 45 wRC+ since. If there’s a silver lining of this toe fracture, perhaps it will give Candelario a breather to get his knee back in good shape so that he can come back in good form.

Due to the club’s various issues around the dirt this year, they have picked up Santiago Espinal, Ty France and now Rosario as the season has gone along. Those three will help fill out the infield alongside De La Cruz, India, Steer and Marté as the Reds try to keep their season alive. They are currently 5.5 games out of a playoff spot but would have to leapfrog five different clubs to get into postseason position.

Reds Select Julian Aguiar

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The Reds announced today that they have selected the contract of right-hander Julian Aguiar. Righty Casey Legumina was optioned to open an active roster spot. To get Aguiar onto the 40-man, the Reds recalled righty Christian Roa and placed him on the 60-day injured list with a right shoulder sprain.

Aguiar, 23, was a 12th-round selection of the Reds in the 2021 draft. In 2022, he tossed 96 1/3 innings, mostly at the Single-A level but also with a brief look at High-A. He allowed 3.46 earned runs per nine innings, struck out 27.6% of batters faced, limited walks to a 6.6% clip and got grounders on more than half of the balls that were put in play against him. Last year, he made 25 starts between High-A and Double-A. In his 125 innings, he posted a 2.95 ERA, 26.8% strikeout rate, 7.2% walk rate and again got hitters to hit the ball into the ground about half the time.

Coming into 2024, Baseball America ranked him the #14 prospect in the Reds’ system. FanGraphs had him a bit higher, putting him at #7 in early April. BA highlights his pitch mix, describing it as consisting of a four-seamer, two-seamer, curveball, slider and changeup. FG doesn’t mention the two-seamer and also characterizes the slider and curveball as the same breaking ball, just shaped slightly differently, though they admit that this essentially leads to Aguiar having two different breaking balls even if they are the same speed.

Here in 2024, Aguiar has continued posting some decent numbers, though not quite as strong as previous years. He has thrown 116 1/3 innings over 22 starts between Double-A and Triple-A with a 3.79 ERA. His 6% walk rate still demonstrates good control but his 19.7% strikeout rate is well below his previous two seasons. His ground ball rate has also been just below 40% at both levels this year, a drop from what he was able to achieve at the lower levels.

The Reds have Graham Ashcraft and Brandon Williamson on the 60-day injured list. The former has a right elbow strain and an uncertain timeline. The latter has a shoulder strain and could be nearing a rehab assignment, per Charlie Goldsmith of the Cincinnati Enquirer on X, but hasn’t pitched in the big leagues yet this year. Even if he is able to start a rehab assignment soon, he’ll likely need a few weeks of ramp-up to get into game shape. Righty Hunter Greene landed on the 15-day IL this weekend with some elbow soreness and the club seems optimistic he can return after roughly a minimum stint, but it’s still a big blow to the rotation mix given that he’s pitched well enough to be in the Cy Young conversation this year.

Amid those injuries, the rotation is down to a core duo of Nick Lodolo and Andrew Abbott, along with swingmen Carson Spiers and Nick Martinez. Now they will be adding the rookie Aguiar into the mix. The Reds are six games back of a playoff spot at this point and clearly have at least some hope of making the playoffs as they recently claimed infielder Amed Rosario off waivers. Rosario is a veteran on a one-year deal and has no future impact, so they wouldn’t have made that move if they had given up on the season.

Perhaps Aguiar will get a few turns through the rotation to see how his stuff plays against big league hitters, at least until Greene or Williamson are able to come off the IL. The club also has Lyon Richardson and Connor Phillips on the 40-man roster but Richardson has a 4.58 ERA and 13.4% walk rate in Triple-A this year. Phillips, meanwhile, has a ghastly ERA of 10.11 in his 14 minor league starts and hasn’t pitched in official game action since June. Non-roster options like Justus Sheffield, Connor Overton and Brett Kennedy are either injured, putting up poor numbers or both. The club has an off-day on August 26 but then has a double-header on August 30, meaning they don’t have a ton of leeway with their rotation at the moment.

As for Roa, 25, he was added to the club’s 40-man roster in November to keep him out of the Rule 5 draft. He has been on optional assignment all year and still hasn’t made his major league debut. He last pitched August 10 and it appears this shoulder strain will end his season. Based on this transaction, he won’t be eligible to return until the middle of October. That’s not a pleasant outcome for him but the silver lining is that he’ll now get a bit of major league service time and pay while spending the rest of the season on the injured list.

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