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Pitching Notes: Eovaldi, Corbin, Kluber/Bauer, Soria, Holland

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If there was any doubt as to the Red Sox’ desire to bring back Nathan Eovaldi after his strong run with the club late in 2018, president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski put it to rest in comments today. As Chris Cotillo of MassLive.com was among those to report, Dombrowski confirmed that the organization has been engaged with Eovaldi’s camp this winter — though he also cautioned that “there’s a lot of interest” in the righty leaguewide. How far the Sox will go in the bidding remains to be seen, but Dombrowski said that Eovaldi is “a guy that we love.” With only a few major needs to be accounted for, the defending World Series champs seem a prime potential landing spot — as we predicted at the outset of the offseason.

  • The Padres also have interest in Eovaldi, per Dennis Lin of The Athletic (via Twitter). It has long been rumored that the San Diego club would hunt for starting pitching this winter, but the injury-prone, high-octane 28-year-old would make for a particularly interesting target. After all, numerous big spenders (see above) are in the fray. For the budget-conscious Friars, beating the market for Eovaldi would surely mean taking on a rather significant risk. Perhaps that’s part of a more general strategy for a team that has plenty of interesting arms filtering through the system and is looking to move toward contention now while adding players who’ll contribute for some time to come. The San Diego franchise has also kicked around trade concepts with the Mets on Noah Syndergaard and, as Lin notes, already agreed to a hefty two-year pact with Garrett Richards in hopes he’ll recover and turn in a strong 2020 campaign.
  • Even as Eovaldi draws plenty of interest it seems the early market will be driven by Patrick Corbin, the excellent lefty who just completed a tour of several big-spending east-coast clubs. The Nationals, Yankees, and Phillies still profile as the likeliest landing spots, Jon Heyman of Fancred tweets, though he notes that other teams are still in the mix. A decision, in any event, still seems to come sooner than later. Yankees GM Brian Cashman made clear that his organization is a serious pursuer of a hurler with deep ties to the region in an interview this evening with Jack Curry of the YES Network (write-up via MLB.com’s Bryan Hoch). “We’re doing everything in our power to put ourselves in position to be a legitimate consideration,” says Cashman, who calls Corbin “a special talent.” This sort of public endorsement obviously won’t decide the matter, but it surely indicates that the Yankees are engaged in a full press.
  • The trade side of the starting pitching market remains somewhat more difficult to assess at this stage, but the Indians still seem to be driving the bus (at least unless and until we learn more about the seriousness of the Mets’ intentions regarding Syndergaard). MLB.com’s Jon Morosi suggests on Twitter that the Cleveland org will likely wait until there has been some movement at the upper levels of free agency before moving Corey Kluber or Trevor Bauer, though it’s not entirely clear why that’d necessarily be the case. At the moment, Morosi adds in a subsequent tweet, the Braves are not actively engaged on either hurler. Of course, it’d likely be unwise to rule out the Atlanta club at this stage, given its assortment of intriguing young talent and desire to add a frontline rotation piece.
  • Veteran reliever Joakim Soria is drawing interest from at least a handful of clubs at this early stage of the free agent market, MLB.com’s Jesse Sanchez tweets. The Diamondbacks, Angels, Yankees, Braves, and Reds are all involved to some extent, per the report, representing an interesting slate of organizations. While the New York and Atlanta clubs are clearly in position to add veteran talent in a bid to repeat their postseason appearances from 2018, the other teams listed by Chavez are in somewhat less-certain positions in respect to the open market. The Los Angeles and Cincinnati ballclubs are surely interested in spending to contend, but will need to choose their targets wisely. Meanwhile, Arizona is exploring sell-side deals while also trying to achieve value with new investments. That Soria appeals to all of these teams seems to suggest that the league believes the 34-year-old has plenty left in the tank. And for good reason: he just wrapped up a campaign in which he spun 60 2/3 innings of 3.12 ERA ball, with a healthy 11.1 K/9 and 2.4 BB/9 along with a personal-best 14.4% swinging-strike rate.
  • Free agent southpaw Derek Holland is drawing multi-year interest, per Henry Schulman of the San Francisco Chronicle (via Twitter). It’s all but impossible to gauge his true market at this stage, with some bigger dominoes still to fall, but it stands to reason that he’d make some degree of sense for a fairly broad group of clubs. At the outset of this year’s hot stove market, we guessed Holland could warrant a two-year, $15MM commitment. Though there are obvious limits to his value at 32 years of age, Holland did finally break out of a multi-year malaise with a strong 2018 campaign in which he contributed 171 1/3 frames and worked to a 3.57 ERA — his first full season of sub-4.00 ball since way back in 2013.

AL Notes: M’s, Seager, Yanks, Sanchez, Tribe, Bauer

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The latest from the American League…

  • If the trade-happy Mariners have their way, third baseman Kyle Seager will be the next veteran to depart. The club’s willing to do “whatever it takes” to deal Seager, Buster Olney of ESPN writes (subscription required). Long one of the majors’ most underrated players, the 31-year-old Seager is coming off an uncharacteristically rough season and still has a guaranteed $57MM left on his contract. Seager’s presence is no longer needed in Seattle, which is rebuilding and trying to cut payroll, though it could be difficult to deal him on the heels of such a disappointing campaign. With that in mind, Olney suggests the Mariners could either swap Seager for another team’s unwanted contract or package him with one of their best remaining assets (Mitch Haniger or Jean Segura) to get his money off the books.
  • Like Seager, Yankees catcher Gary Sanchez endured a surprisingly poor season in 2018. However, Sanchez is “not for sale,” general manager Brian Cashman tells Jack Curry of the YES Network (video link). The Yankees expect to be “proven correct” that Sanchez is a franchise catcher, per Cashman, who has consistently defended the 26-year-old in recent months. So, although Sanchez has come up in trade rumors as recently as this week, it appears he’ll stay put.
  • Indians right-hander Trevor Bauer is another offseason trade candidate, but he explained to MLB Network this week that it wouldn’t make sense for the Tribe to deal him now. “There’s a lot of reasons I think that [the Indians should not trade me],” Bauer said (via Anthony Castrovince of MLB.com). “Ultimately, I think the surplus value on me this year is just way too high. Even with an arbitration raise, you’re probably talking about $15 to $20 million of surplus value.” Bauer added that it would be more logical for the Indians to move him a year from now, when his price will rise and he’ll be just one year from reaching free agency. The 27-year-old provided oodles of surplus value to the Indians in 2018, when he logged an amazing 2.21 ERA/2.44 FIP over 175 1/3 innings for a little more than $6.5MM. He’s projected to earn another reasonable salary – $11.6MM – in 2019.

NL East Notes: Nats, Rendon, Suzuki, Mets, Ramos

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Nationals superstar Anthony Rendon is slated to enter a contract year in 2019, but he told Chelsea Janes of the Washington Post and other reporters Sunday that he’s “up for” signing an extension. The third baseman revealed that he and the Nats have been discussing an extension for a year, adding that while he hopes to remain in Washington, he’d be content to enter next season without a new contract. The 28-year-old Rendon continued to make a case for a mega-deal in 2018, as he finished top 10 in both position player fWAR (eighth) and wRC+ (10th).

Here’s more from Washington and one of its division rivals:

  • The Mets are hesitant to go after ex-Nat Wilson Ramos, one of the top two free-agent catchers available, because of concerns over his defense and injury issues, Mike Puma of the New York Post tweets. New York’s “prioritizing” behind-the-plate defense and putting an extra emphasis on pitch framing, Puma adds. Baseball Prospectus has typically awarded Ramos positive pitch-framing and defense marks, though going by its Fielding Runs Above Average metric, he has been a scratch or minus defender for three straight seasons. Ramos has also torn his right ACL twice, including in 2016, which limited him to 64 games in 2017 as he worked his way back. However, Ramos did catch 96 games last season – 92 more than oft-injured Mets backstop Travis d’Arnaud, whom they tendered a contract Friday. Of course, Ramos is sure to require a pricey multiyear commitment, whereas d’Arnaud’s essentially set to play under a one-year deal worth a projected $3.7M.
  • Keith Law of ESPN (subscription link) applauds Washington’s acquisition of catcher Yan Gomes from Cleveland, writing that the Nationals made a sizable improvement behind the plate without surrendering much. Having Gomes instead of 2018 starter Matt Wieters as their primary catcher could mean at least a four-win upgrade next year, Law posits. Law goes on to assess outfielder Daniel Johnson and right-hander Jefry Rodriguez – whom the Indians received for Gomes – in detail, noting that the former just endured a disappointing, injury-shortened season and the latter may only max out as a righty specialist in the majors. But Law explains that there’s hope for Indians catcher Eric Haase, who may succeed Gomes as their main backstop.
  • Between Gomes and free-agent signing Kurt Suzuki, the Nationals have made a pair of noteworthy additions at catcher in the past couple weeks. Although, as Jesse Dougherty of the Washington Post notes, it’s not yet clear how the Nats will divvy up playing time between the two next season. GM Mike Rizzo suggested Saturday that he’d leave it up to manager Dave Martinez, who declared that “they’re both going to split time.” Rizzo added that Suzuki could see action at first base, where he has never appeared in a major league game. Regardless, Suzuki’s “totally on board” with the Gomes pickup, per Rizzo.

Mets, Indians Have Discussed Corey Kluber

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Having already swung one blockbuster trade this offseason, the Mets may have further headline-grabbing deals in mind. It appears they have interest in Indians ace Corey Kluber, per MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand, who reports that the two teams have discussed the right-hander.

The Mets are one of several teams reportedly eyeing Kluber, a two-time American League Cy Young Award winner whose name has been prominent in rumors for a month. The fact that Kluber’s on the Mets’ radar is especially fascinating given that the future of one of their aces, righty Noah Syndergaard, is up in the air.

While New York may be attempting to build a dominant rotation led by Jacob deGrom, Kluber and Syndergaard, Feinsand notes it’s possible they could end up dealing Syndergaard and then acquiring Kluber in a separate trade. Swapping out Syndergaard for Kluber would seemingly be a near-term upgrade, though the latter is far older and pricier than the former. The 26-year-old Syndergaard has three arbitration-eligible campaigns remaining and will only make a projected $5.9MM next season, while the soon-to-be 33-year-old Kluber will earn $17MM in 2019 – also his third-last year of control.

For Cleveland, trading Kluber would be an obvious blow to its pitching staff, though a deal could come to fruition if it enables the team to pick up immediate help and cut payroll. If the Indians would indeed want controllable, young major leaguers for Kluber, then Syndergaard, outfielders Brandon Nimmo and Michael Conforto, and second baseman Jeff McNeil look like the most logical fits from the Mets’ roster. All four are under control through at least 2021 and would seemingly help keep a Kluber-less Indians team strong in 2019.

Aside from that quartet, it doesn’t appear the rest of the Mets’ roster or their prospect pool is teeming with ideal pieces to pry Kluber out of Cleveland. Baseball America ranked the Mets’ farm an uninspiring 19th in the game even before they agreed to trade a pair of their best prospects, outfielder Jarred Kelenic and righty Justin Dunn, to Seattle in a package for Robinson Cano and Edwin Diaz. The Mets do still have two of the outlet’s top-1oo prospects, however, in shortstop Andres Gimenez (No. 53) and first baseman Peter Alonso (No. 72).

While it’s unknown how serious the Mets are about Kluber, it’s fair to say they’re positioning themselves as one of this offseason’s most interesting teams to watch. General manager Brodie Van Wagenen has been a polarizing presence in his first few weeks as an executive, but it’s clear he’s willing to make bold moves in an effort to improve a New York club coming off back-to-back sub-.500 seasons.

Indians Sign Trayce Thompson, James Hoyt To Minors Contracts

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The Indians have signed outfielder Trayce Thompson and right-hander James Hoyt to minor league deals, the team announced (Twitter link).  Both players received invitations to the Tribe’s big league Spring Training camp.  Hoyt, it should be noted, was re-signed after being non-tendered yesterday.

Hoyt did not appear in the majors for Cleveland after being acquired in a July trade with the Astros. He did, however, see significant time pitching out of the Astros’ bullpen in 2016 and 2017. He made 66 appearances in total, earning a 2-1 record with a 4.40 ERA. The 31-year-old right-hander definitely has a better chance of making the big league team in Cleveland, where a complete overhaul of the bullpen is taking shape.

Thompson, 27, struggled mightily with the White Sox last season. Over 130 plate appearances in Chicago, Thompson hit an ugly .116/.163/.215 with three home runs. He also appeared in three games with Oakland. A decent defensive outfielder, Thompson can handle all three outfield positions, but he’ll need to show vast improvement at the plate to have a chance at seeing big league time in Cleveland next year.

AL Notes: Royals, Astros, Bauer

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In light of yesterday’s Yan Gomes trade, those teams still in need of a backstop for 2019 will be surveying the market with renewed urgency. One guy not likely to be on the move is Salvador Perez. The story has not changed for Salvy and the Royals, whose price for Perez is “so exorbitant no team would meet it,” per the Athletic’s Rustin Dodd (subscription link). While teams around the league would certainly check in on Perez were he to become available, it is unlikely anyone values him as highly as the Royals. The 28-year-old catcher is owed $36MM through 2021 and hasn’t had an OBP over .300 since 2013. His power output has remained consistent, however, and his merits extend behind the field of play, as he is a key presence both for players and for fans, as a leader in the clubhouse and as the one of the last core position players from back-to-back American League pennants. More from the Royals and the rest of the American League…

  • As for other Royals targets, Whit Merrifield is a slightly more achievable trade target, but given his four years of team control, the Royals are unlikely to part with their second baseman either. Lefty Danny Duffy can likely be had, but given his down year (4.88 ERA, 4.1 BB/9) and the over $45MM still on his deal, the Royals are better off keeping him and letting him restore some value in 2019. A quiet offseason looms for the Royals and GM Dayton Moore, who has said previously he expects Kansas City will be better-positioned to be aggressive in the market by 2021.
  • The Astros tendered contracts to ten players before yesterday’s deadline, most of whom were fairly safe bets to return to Houston. Outfielder Jake Marisnick was one on-the-bubble candidate, but he returns for a third season of arbitration eligibility in Houston. Marisnick has struggled at the dish, carrying a career .226/.278/.374 line into 2019, but he is an elite defensive center fielder, a valuable asset for the Astros, who never seem wholly comfortable leaving George Springer full-time in center. Marisnick does have one option remaining*, so Houston can send him down to Triple A without exposing him to waivers. The Athletic’s Jake Kaplan (subscription link) also notes that fellow benchmates Tyler White and Tony Kemp are without options, limiting flexibility for GM Jeff Luhnow. None of the three would net much of a return on the trade market on their own, though all three are cheap and useful enough to be included as a complimentary piece to a larger deal. The Astros do have options in the minor leagues should they deal Marisnick, most notably Myles Straw, who could replace Marisnick as the speed and defense option in center off the bench.
  • Both Kaplan and Fancred’s Jon Heyman suggest the Astros are looking for a primary catching option to top the depth chart ahead of Max Stassi. The Marlins J.T. Realmuto is the dream get, but Houston has thus-far refused to surrender star pitching prospect Forrest Whitley. Heyman notes that they may be willing to part with outfielder Kyle Tucker, a likely must-have for Miami in any package for Realmuto.
  • Heyman also notes that in Cleveland, though most of the trade noise has focused on Corey Kluber and Carlos Carrasco, Trevor Bauer is actually the most likely of the three to be shipped out. This makes sense with the recent rumblings of extension talks with Carrasco, though there’s nothing close as of yet regarding Bauer. The Indians would love to keep him, but of the three, Bauer’s arbitration eligibility makes him more fiscally volatile than either of Carrasco or Kluber, who are under multi-year contracts. The perfect trade package for the Indians would probably include controllable pieces to augment what they already have in either the outfield or the bullpen, two areas in need of securing this offseason.

*Original post incorrectly listed Marisnick as having no options remaining (in referencing the Kaplan piece), but he does in fact have one option year left.

Nationals Acquire Yan Gomes

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The Nationals have officially swung a deal with the Indians to bring in catcher Yan Gomes. Outfielder Daniel Johnson, righty Jefry Rodriguez, and a player to be named later will go to Cleveland in the swap.

With this swap in the books, the Nats have done all their work behind the dish at the very outset of the offseason. The organization already brought back old friend Kurt Suzuki, who’ll presumably share time with Gomes. The former is earning $10MM over two years, while the latter will take home a $7MM salary in 2019 before a pair of club options ($9MM and $11MM, each with $1MM buyouts).

The Gomes contract initially looked to be a coup for the Indians club, then took on a sour note as his offensive numbers plummeted. Last year, though, the 31-year-old bounced back with a strong campaign in which he slashed .266/.313/.449 and hit 16 long balls over 435 plate appearances.

It’s fair to wonder what to expect moving forward. Gomes has good power for a catcher, but doesn’t typically draw many walks. Accordingly, his OBP has bounced up and down with his batting average on balls in play. Gomes did turn in a personal-best 38.7% hard-hit rate (by measure of Statcast) along with a .322 xwOBA that nearly matched his .326 wOBA in 2018, but odds are the Nats have tempered expectations on the offensive side.

Even if he falls back somewhat with the bat, though, Gomes is also regarded as a high-quality defender. Baseball Prospectus has generally graded him as a strong positive in all the measurable areas — framing, throwing, blocking. That presents an opposing skillset from that currently possessed by Suzuki, who has turned himself into an excellent hitter but doesn’t defend with such aplomb. Presumably, the Nats will utilize both according to need, while hoping the timeshare keeps them fresh, though obviously in-game situational substitutions won’t really be possible unless the club somehow finagles a way to carry a third catcher.

Regardless of how one looks at it, the two players combine to make a strong upgrade behind the dish for the Nats, who had relied upon Matt Wieters, Pedro Severino, and Spencer Kieboom over the past two seasons. The latter two players remain in the organization, though it stands to reason that one (likely the out-of-options Severino) will be jettisoned at some point, particularly with Raudy Read also taking a 40-man spot.

The Indians surely would have a stronger roster with Gomes on it. But they’re also willing to roll the dice a bit. The need for some budgetary flexibility is obviously a big part of the picture, but the organization obviously also believes in some rising players. In this case, Roberto Perez will presumptively take the bulk of the action behind the dish, with newcomer Eric Haase joining him after spending the past three seasons in the upper minors — where he has shown plenty of power but also a questionable on-base profile.

Certainly, the prospect return is a factor here as well. Johnson, a fifth-round pick in 2016, has an intriguing blend of power and speed, making him a top-ten organizational prospect for the Nats. The 23-year-old most recently scuffled a bit at Double-A and struggled badly in the Arizona Fall League, making for a disappointing 2018 after a strong first full season as a professional. He’s likely a year or two away and may never be more than a reserve in the majors, but the consensus seems to be that there are tools to work with.

As for Rodriguez, the hard-throwing 25-year-old reached the majors last year, bringing control problems with him. It’s hard to judge too harshly, though, as he was also in his first season pitching past the High-A level. Rodriguez has worked almost entirely as a starter during his time in the farm, so he could be sent back down to keep refining. But it’s also possible the Indians will move him into a relief role, potentially of a multi-inning variety, and plan on utilizing him in the majors in the near future.

Veteran reporter Bill Madden suggested on Twitter that a deal was in the works, with Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic among others reporting (Twitter link) that the sides were in “serious discussions.” Jon Heyman of Fancred (via Twitter) and Paul Hoynes of the Plain Dealer (in a tweet) had the return. 

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Players Avoiding Arbitration Prior To Non-Tender Deadline

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Tonight marks the deadline for MLB clubs to tender contracts to arbitration-eligible players. As such, there’ll be a slew of pre-tender agreements announced today — particularly for arbitration-eligible players who might have otherwise been non-tender candidates. As we saw yesterday (and frequently in previous seasons), players agreeing to terms before the tender deadline will often sign for less than they’re projected, as the alternative in some cases may simply be to be cut loose into a crowded free-agent market.

We’ll track today’s pre-tender agreements here, with all referenced projections coming courtesy of MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz…

  • Giants infielder Joe Panik settled at a $3.8MM price tag, per Heyman (via Twitter). That’ll represent a savings as against the $4.2MM projected salary. Many had wondered whether the new San Francisco front office would move on from Panik, who has one more year of arb eligibility remaining. Meanwhile, Heyman tweets that reliever Sam Dyson has agreed to a $5MM pact. That also comes in $400K below his projection.
  • The Padres settled with righty Bryan Mitchell for $900K, Heyman tweets. Mitchell had been a non-tender candidate at a projected $1.2MM sum.
  • Newly acquired first baseman C.J. Cron has agreed to a $4.8MM contract, the Twins announced. He projected to a $5.2MM salary; this becomes the latest of many indications of the unstable market position of defensively limited slugger types.
  • The Indians have settled with righty Danny Salazar for $4.5MM, Jon Heyman of Fancred tweets. He was projected at $5MM, with some wondering whether the Cleveland organization might non-tender him. The talented hurler missed the entire 2018 season. Meanwhile, righty Nick Goody is slated to earn $675K, Heyman tweets.
  • Southpaw Jonny Venters avoided arb with the Braves, David O’Brien of The Athletic tweets. It’s a $2.25MM deal, sitting well over the $1.5MM projection, though certainly his unusual career path could have led to some additional arguments for a stronger raise.
  • The Cardinals announced an agreement with lefty Chasen Shreve. Terms aren’t yet known. The 28-year-old had projected to take home $1.2MM for the 2019 campaign, but will settle at $900K per Heyman (via Twitter).
  • Pirates righty Michael Feliz has avoided arbitration with the club, Rob Biertempfel of The Athletic was among those to report on Twitter. Feliz projected at a $900K salary and will get $850K, Jeff Passan of Yahoo Sports tweets. It’s a split agreement that promises $375K in the minors, per Bill Brink of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette (via Twitter).
  • Infielder Tyler Saladino has agreed to a $887,500 salary with the Brewers, Jon Heyman of Fancred tweets. That comes in below the $1MM he projected to earn.
  • The Athletics settled at $2.15MM with Liam Hendriks, per Jeff Passan of Yahoo Sports (via Twitter), all of which is guaranteed. That’s just where he projected ($2.1MM) on the heels of a fascinating 2018 season. Hendriks was dropped from the MLB roster in the middle of the season but returned late in the year in dominant fashion as the A’s “opener.”
  • Lefty Sammy Solis agreed to terms with the Nationals to avoid arbitration, the club announced. He profiled as a potential non-tender candidate, so it seems likely the organization pushed to get something done before the deadline. Solis, who has an intriguing power arsenal but struggled through a homer-prone 2018, projected at $900K. He’ll earn $850K, per Chelsea Janes of the Washington Post (Twitter link).
  • The Athletics announced that they’ve agreed to a one-year deal with righty Ryan Dull in advance of tonight’s deadline. He’ll get $860K, Fancred’s Jon Heyman tweets, which checks in pretty closely with his $900K projection. Dull, 29, posted a 4.26 ERA with 21 strikeouts and seven walks in 25 1/3 innings of relief in 2018.
  • Heyman also tweets that the Padres and Greg Garcia, whom they claimed off waivers earlier this offseason, settled on a one-year deal worth $910K that aligns with his $900K projection. Garcia hit .221/.309/.304 in 208 plate appearances with St. Louis last season and is a career .248/.356/.339 hitter in 860 plate appearances.

Earlier Agreements

  • The Brewers and Hernan Perez avoided arbitration by agreeing to a one-year deal worth $2.5MM, as first reported by Heyman. He’ll check in a bit shy of his $2.7MM projection but remain on hand as a versatile utility option in Milwaukee.
  • Left-hander Tony Cingrani and the Dodgers avoided arb with a one-year deal worth $2.65MM. That checks in just south of the lefty’s $2.7MM projection. Cingrani turned in a brilliant 36-to-6 K/BB ratio in 22 1/3 innings but was also tagged for a considerably less palatable 4.76 earned run average.
  • The Red Sox announced that they’ve agreed to terms on a one-year contract for the 2019 season with right-hander Tyler Thornburg. They’ve also tendered contracts to the remainder of their arbitration-eligible players, though the terms of those deals will be negotiated in the coming weeks. Evan Drellich of NBC Sports Boston tweets that Thornburg will earn $1.75MM i 2019 and can earn another $400K via incentives. I’m told that includes $100K for reaching each of 45, 50, 55 and 60 appearances. Thornburg, 30, was roughed up to the tune of a 5.63 ERA in 24 innings for the Sox this season — his first action for Boston since being acquired prior to the 2017 season. His Boston tenure has been utterly derailed by thoracic outlet syndrome and the ensuing surgery. Thornburg was excellent for the 2016 Brewers, and Boston parted with Travis Shaw in order to acquire him, so the Sox will surely hope that a regular offseason of rest and further removing himself from TOS surgery will get the righty back on track. This will be Thornburg’s final season of club control. He’d been projected to earn $2.3MM.

Indians Discussing New Contract With Carlos Carrasco

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As rumors fly regarding the possibility of the Indians dealing one of their outstanding starting pitchers, there’s an interesting new wrinkle. The club is discussing a new contract with Carlos Carrasco, per Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic (Twitter links).

Details aren’t known, but the Indians obviously see an opportunity to achieve yet more value with Carrasco, a player who has contributed plenty to the organization over the years. He previously inked a four-year, $22MM pact that included two options and has worked out quite favorably for the club. Carrasco has turned in 722 innings of 3.40 ERA ball since putting pen to paper, with advanced metrics suggesting he has been even better than the results alone would indicate.

That contract still has two years left to go; he’ll earn just $9.75MM in 2019, while the club also possesses a 2020 option priced at $9.5MM (with the potential to rise by up to $4MM based upon Cy Young Award-driven escalators). Given that Carrasco is already 31 years of age, he obviously is not working from the strongest position of leverage in talks. Given that he’s discussing another long-term deal with the club, though, it also seems fair to presume that he truly wishes to remain with the only organization he has pitched for at the MLB level.

As this news confirms, but was already evident, the Indians aren’t in a full-blown selling stance. The club still profiles as a massive favorite in the American League Central and is no doubt hard at work thinking of ways to challenge the other top dogs in the AL. Rather, the Indians are trying to pull off a series of moves that will not only leave them in excellent shape for 2019, but will enhance their long-term sustainability.

If a new deal comes together, Carrasco would obviously not be marketed this winter. That’d leave Corey Kluber and Trevor Bauer as potentially massive trade chips for the Indians to cash in for younger, controllable position players at an area of need. It’s not hard to see the appeal behind that concept, particularly given the still-impressive pitching depth in the organization. But doubling down on the existing investment in Carrasco is another intriguing avenue for achieving long-term value.

Dodgers, Indians Have Reportedly Discussed Trade Scenarios Involving Corey Kluber

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The Indians’ top three starters have seen their names hit the rumor mill this winter, and MLB.com’s Jon Morosi writes that the Dodgers are among the teams who’ve discussed various trade concepts with Cleveland in the past few days. Specifically, one iteration involves both Corey Kluber and Yasiel Puig, per Morosi, though it’s clear that there are still some gaps to be filled in with regard to that specific package, as there’s no logical scenario in which Puig is any sort of centerpiece to a Kluber trade.

In fact, while the Indians have obvious outfield needs, it’s difficult to see a player as expensive as Puig being a prime target to fill that need. The reported willingness to listen to offers on Kluber and others seemed to stem from a desire to create payroll flexibility and add controllable young talent. Puig checks neither of those boxes and is a clear downgrade from Kluber in terms of overall value. While Kluber will earn $17MM next season, Puig is projected by MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz to earn $11.3MM himself. Shedding a mere $6MM or so in payroll wouldn’t be of that much benefit to Cleveland unless the Dodgers were to add significant pre-arbitration talent and/or take on some additional money in return.

Morosi writes that the Dodgers would likely be willing to part with lefty Alex Wood and pitching prospect Yadier Alvarez, but that pairing, again, presents issues. Namely, Wood is projected to earn $9MM in arbitration and, like Puig, is a free agent next winter. He’d be a fine one-year replacement for Kluber, but it’s the idea of moving Kluber to acquire a pair of expensive veterans who have just one season of team control remaining isn’t logical on its surface, unless there are other moving parts at play.

Alvarez, meanwhile, was touted as a mega-prospect when he signed for $16MM out of Cuba (plus a matching $16MM luxury tax penalty), but he’s yet to top 100 innings in any of his three seasons in the Dodgers’ minor league ranks. Beyond that, the 2018 campaign was far and away his worst since signing; in 48 1/3 innings at the Double-A level, Alvarez posted a 4.66 ERA with 52 strikeouts against an alarming total of 43 walks. There’s still ample time for the 22-year-old to realize his potential, but he’s not the type of young player who’d headline a package for one of the game’s elite pitchers.

The Dodgers do have the type of young talent that Cleveland would covet in any deal involving Kluber, of course, and it seems likely that any talks centering around him, Carlos Carrasco or Trevor Bauer have involved several names. But a deal including any of Puig, Wood or Alvarez would require the addition of some prominent young, controllable players in order to sufficiently pique Cleveland’s interest. Furthermore, it’s hard to envision a scenario where Cleveland adds the salary requirements that would come with both Puig and Wood in the same deal without some additional financial considerations coming into play.

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