Checking In On The Worst Bullpens Of 2018
The importance of having a dominant bullpen was on display in 2018, when four of the majors’ five best relief units in terms of fWAR helped pitch their teams to the postseason. On the other hand, four of the league’s five worst relief corps (and nine of the game’s bottom 10) watched the playoffs from home. So now, with the spring fast approaching, where do last year’s bottom-feeding bullpens stand? As you’ll see below, at least one has made major improvements this winter, but the rest look iffier. While there’s still time for these teams to add help from a free-agent class that remains awash with veterans, this quintet’s bullpen-related heavy lifting may be all but complete for the offseason.
Royals (minus-2.2 fWAR; projected season-opening bullpen via Jason Martinez of Roster Resource ): Going by fWAR, the Royals’ 2018 bullpen was among the five worst of the past decade, though the unit “only” posted the majors’ second-highest ERA (5.09) a year ago. Those hideous numbers came in spite of the presence of Kelvin Herrera, who logged a near-spotless 1.05 ERA over 25 2/3 innings before the Royals traded the then-pending free agent to the Nationals in June. They also came thanks in large part to Brandon Maurer, who’s now a Pirate after pitching to a ghastly 7.76 ERA/6.58 FIP in 31 1/3 innings out of Kansas City’s bullpen last season.
Heading into the upcoming campaign, there’s a lot of work to be done to turn this Herrera-less group into a strength, but the Royals haven’t addressed it in any major way this offseason. However, considering they’re coming off a 58-win season and also won’t approach contention in 2019, it’s not surprising the Royals have shied away from major league free agency. They’ve instead taken less expensive routes to acquire potential bullpen pieces, having pulled in Michael Ynoa on a minor league deal, Sam McWilliams and Chris Ellis in the Rule 5 Draft and Conner Greene via waivers. Unfortunately, going by ZIPS projections, no one from that quartet looks like a promising bet to produce much in 2019. Likewise, ZIPS doesn’t have particularly high hopes for the majority of the Royals’ bullpen holdovers from 2018. The system does, however, like 23-year-old left-hander Richard Lovelady – who has turned in excellent minor league numbers but hasn’t yet reached the majors.
Marlins (minus-2.1 fWAR; projected season-opening bullpen): At 5.34, the Marlins’ relief corps managed the game’s worst ERA last year and the sport’s third-highest mark since 2009. The main culprits were Ben Meyer, Junichi Tazawa and Tyler Cloyd, who combined for 56 2/3 innings and each registered an ERA of at least 8.68. Tazawa and Cloyd are now out of the organization. Meyer, meanwhile, is still around, but he’s not even on Miami’s 40-man roster. But neither is righty Nick Wittgren, who led Marlins relievers in ERA (2.94) and FIP (3.13) in 33 2/3 frames last year. The Marlins made the odd choice to designate the 27-year-old Wittgren for assignment earlier this week to make room for the signing of infielder Neil Walker, who’s six years Wittgren’s senior and only under control for one season. Other notable contributors no longer in the mix include Kyle Barraclough (who nosedived in 2018 and was dealt to the Nationals in October), Brad Ziegler (Miami traded him to Arizona last July, and he has since retired) and Javy Guerra (now a Blue Jay after putting up a 5.55 ERA in 2018).
The best returning pieces in Miami’s bullpen look to be Drew Steckenrider and Adam Conley, who each registered solid seasons in 2018. Otherwise, it’s a largely unproven cast – one that hasn’t picked up any major league free agents and seems likely to once again record below-average numbers this year. As with the Royals, the Marlins are rebuilding, so they’ve explored alternative paths for help. Thus far, they’ve acquired Nick Anderson (via trade with the Twins), Tyler Stevens (via trade with the Angels), minor league free agents R.J. Alvarez and Brian Moran, Rule 5 selection Riley Ferrell, and intriguing waiver claim Julian Fernandez.
Mets (minus-0.6 fWAR; projected season-opening bullpen): Unlike the Royals and Marlins, the Mets are making a real effort to win in 2019. As a result, the bullpen has been a key area of focus for new Mets general manager Brodie Van Wagenen, who has swung a blockbuster trade to reel in arguably the best closer in baseball (ex-Mariner Edwin Diaz) and spent a combined $40MM on free agents Jeurys Familia and Justin Wilson this winter. Diaz, Familia and Wilson will join Seth Lugo, who was outstanding in 2018, and Robert Gsellman to give the Mets no fewer than five capable relievers.
Perhaps the Mets will also benefit from less heralded pickups in Luis Avilan and Arquimedes Caminero, whom they signed to minors deals, and Rule 5 pick Kyle Dowdy. Regardless, New York’s new cast of relievers looks a whole lot better than last year’s bullpen, which relied too much on the likes of Paul Sewald, Jerry Blevins, Jacob Rhame, Tim Peterson and Anthony Swarzak, among other ineffective options, en route to a 4.96 ERA. Sewald, Rhame and Peterson are still in the organization, albeit as depth pieces, while Blevins and Swarzak are now gone. All things considered, ZIPS expects the Mets’ revamped bullpen to end up as one of the majors’ best in 2019.
Indians (plus-0.4 fWAR; projected season-opening bullpen): Cleveland found its way to another division title in 2018 despite its weak bullpen, which limped to a 4.60 ERA as innings leaders Cody Allen, Dan Otero, Zach McAllister, Neil Ramirez and Andrew Miller scuffled. Allen, McAllister and Miller are now gone, leaving the Indians with a bullpen that, in spite of the great Brad Hand‘s presence, still looks somewhat questionable. The club did well to re-up lefty Oliver Perez, whose 2018 renaissance earned him a guaranteed deal last month, though he’s the only major league free agent Cleveland has signed. The team also made a waiver claim for A.J. Cole, whose penchant for surrendering home runs led both the Nationals and Yankees to give up on him in the past eight months, and brought in veterans Justin Grimm and Brooks Pounders on minor league accords. Big league success has eluded Grimm and Pounders over the past couple years, however, so the Indians surely aren’t expecting significant contributions from either. Instead, their relief corps will count on returning Indians – potentially including flamethrower Danny Salazar, a starter from 2013-17 who missed all of last season because of shoulder problems. While Salazar could factor in at some point, it won’t be at the start of the season.
Nationals (plus-0.4 fWAR; projected season-opening bullpen): Washington, another prospective contender, has made a couple of interesting bullpen moves this offseason after last year’s underwhelming showing. In addition to trading for the hard-throwing Barraclough, who held his own from 2015-17, they inked fellow high-velocity righty Trevor Rosenthal to a $7MM guarantee in free agency. Rosenthal, 28, sat out all of last season while recovering from Tommy John surgery, but the former Cardinals closer was mostly tremendous out of their bullpen from 2012-17.
Should a healthy Rosenthal return to form, it would be an enormous boon for the Nationals, who saw a different ex-Cards reliever – Greg Holland – experience a rebirth in their uniform last season. But after logging a microscopic 0.84 ERA in 21 1/3 innings in D.C., Holland joined the Diamondbacks in free agency. The Holland-less Nats are now slated to rely mostly on elite but oft-injured closer Sean Doolittle, Barraclough, Rosenthal, Justin Miller, Koda Glover, Sammy Solis and Matt Grace, with Tanner Rainey (acquired from the Reds for Tanner Roark) and minor league signings Vidal Nuno and J.J. Hoover around as depth. All said, it’s a high-risk, high-reward bunch, given the injuries Doolittle and Rosenthal have dealt with and the up-and-down performances of Barraclough, Miller, Glover, Solis and Grace.
NL Notes: Giants, Mets, Reds
Speaking alongside President and CEO Larry Baer, Farhan Zaidi rationalizes the Giants’ winter action thus far, saying “Our goal this offseason has been to surround our core of players, which we still believe is a championship core of players, with the right complementary players.” Henry Schulman of the San Francisco Chronicle provides the clip (via Twitter), wherein Zaidi charms a crowd with good-natured humor, referring to his title as “the guy who reports to [Baer],” while also holding firm to an offseason strategy that has preached patience above all else. To hear him refer to the roster as having a “championship core” feels a tad hopeful, though to his credit, Buster Posey, Madison Bumgarner, Brandon Crawford and Brandon Belt, did quite literally form the core of two World Series winners – three for Posey, Bumgarner and Pablo Sandoval, who were all on the 2010 squad. So while Zaidi’s not wrong, one might also point out they also have the core of an 84-win team, an 87-win team, a 64-win team, and a 73-win team. Let’s check in on the goings-on from a couple other NL clubs…
- While the Mets continue to keep tabs on lefty Gio Gonzalez, their interest has not reached the “multiyear level,” per sny.tv’s Andy Martino (via Twitter). The Mets are emboldened by a strong second half from Jason Vargas, who combines with Jacob deGrom, Noah Syndergaard, Steven Matz and Zack Wheeler to form the presumptive starting five for the Amazins. Given the injury history of that group, starting depth is an important consideration for GM Brodie Van Wagenen, but Gonzalez should land a clearer path to a guaranteed rotation role elsewhere. If Gio’s market never does materialize, the Mets could circle back, but for the time being they appear content with the likes of Walker Lockett, Corey Oswalt and Hector Santiago providing the rotation depth. Martino notes that Seth Lugo, who started 31 games for the Mets across the past three seasons, will not be considered for the rotation, as they plan on deploying him solely as a reliever in 2019. Lugo, 29, impressed in a swing role last year as his strikeout rate saw a year-over-year increase from 7.5 K/9 to 9.1 K/9.
- The Reds have been active on the trade market all winter, especially in hunting starting pitching. They were one of the teams with early noted interest in Corey Kluber before swinging separate deals for Alex Wood, Tanner Roark, and Sonny Gray. They have also kept tabs on J.T. Realmuto, still one of the teams in the running for the Marlins’ star backstop. One name that both the Indians and Marlins have asked about is Jonathan India, the Reds top draft choice from a year ago. Per Fangraphs’ Kiley McDaniel (via Twitter), top prospects Nick Senzel, Hunter Greene, and Taylor Trammell are viewed as tough gets, leading teams to ask for India instead, but Cincinnati has as of yet refrained from including India in any kind of deal. It certainly makes sense for the Reds to hold onto India in the event that Scooter Gennett departs in free agency after 2019, but they’ll have a tough time getting a talent of Kluber’s or Realmuto’s caliber without surrendering any of the four aforementioned youngsters.
AL Notes: Orioles, Jones, Indians, Tigers, Cowart
Here’s a quick look around the American League:
- In terms of name value, Adam Jones ranks among the majors’ most prominent free agents, thanks to a successful 11-year run with the Orioles. Jones is coming off a below-average season, though, and as a 33-year-old corner outfielder whose best days as a hitter and defender are gone, he hasn’t drawn much reported interest in free agency. But there’s at least a glimmer of a chance the longtime Baltimore fan favorite will end up back with the Orioles, Joe Trezza of MLB.com relays. Asked Saturday about the possibility of re-signing Jones, rookie general manager Mike Elias said, “I don’t think anything is a dead issue,” and added the Orioles are “monitoring everything.” At the same time, however, Elias suggested the rebuilding club may continue to avoid major league free agency, as it has done so far this winter. Should that prove to be the case, it seems likely to rule out a return for Jones, who figures to command a big league deal.
- The Indians ran a franchise-high payroll in every season from 2016-18, each of which included an AL Central title, but that degree of spending “was unsustainable,” president Chris Antonetti said Saturday (per Paul Hoynes of cleveland.com). “So we did need to reposition ourselves financially, which we were able to do with a series of moves earlier in the offseason and provide ourselves that necessary financial flexibility that we needed (for 2019 and beyond).” After opening last year with a payroll in the $135MM range, the Indians are projected to begin 2019 near $119MM, according to Jason Martinez of Roster Resource. Obviously, then, Cleveland hasn’t been aggressive in upgrading its roster this winter, though it’s still the favorite in its division. If the Indians find themselves in contention during the summer trade season, they should be in position to bolster their roster from outside, Antonetti noted. For now, though, any further offseason additions will be modestly priced, Hoynes writes.
- The Tigers claimed infielder Kaleb Cowart from the Mariners on Thursday with the idea of using him as a two-way player, general manager Al Avila confirmed Saturday (via Chris McCosky of the Detroit News). “We felt there was a possibility of a two-way guy here,” Avila said. “We’re going to put him on the mound and see if he can recapture what our guys saw when he was drafted.” Cowart was a first-round pick of the Angels in 2010 as a position player, but he impressed Tigers scouts back then as a high school pitcher. “I always followed his career because of what I saw him do on the mound,” said assistant GM David Chadd, who was the Tigers’ director of scouting during Cowart’s draft year. At the time, Cowart offered a 92 to 95 mph fastball “with heavy life and a slider he threw for strikes,” in addition to a splitter, Chadd recounted. Now, given that Cowart has been a woeful hitter in the majors, has no minor league options remaining and is set to face plenty of competition for an infield spot, the 26-year-old’s best hope to make the Tigers may be to show he can be a viable MLB pitcher, as McCosky points out.
Indians Re-Sign Oliver Perez
The Indians announced Friday that they’ve re-signed left-handed reliever Oliver Perez. It’s a one-year contract with a vesting option for the 2020 season for the Scott Boras client. Paul Hoynes of the Cleveland Plain Dealer reports that Perez will be guaranteed $2.5MM (Twitter link). Perez has a $2.75MM club option that will automatically vest if he reaches 55 games pitched, per Fancred’s Jon Heyman (Twitter link). The option can also vest at $3MM if he appears in 60 games.
Perez, 37, quietly enjoyed a surprising career renaissance with the Indians last season, working to a sparkling 1.39 ERA with 12.0 K/9, 1.9 BB/9, 0.28 HR/9 and a 41.2 percent ground-ball rate in 32 1/3 innings of work. Perez’s workload in the Majors was limited by the fact that he opened the season with the Yankees’ Triple-A affiliate after agreeing to a minor league deal in hopes of rebuilding his stock. The opportunity to do so didn’t present itself with the Yankees, but Perez latched on with Cleveland on a big league deal in early June and firmly put himself back on the map as a viable bullpen option over the season’s final four months.
While one might think that Perez will serve as a left-handed specialist, as he has in the past, his dominance in 2018 should earn him opportunities regardless of opponent. Righties and lefties alike were utterly befuddled by Perez last year; he held left-handed opponents to a .194/.215/.274 slash, which is excellent but still pales in comparison to the comical .104/.218/.104 slash to which he limited righties.
It’s been a quiet offseason for Cleveland, with Perez somewhat incredibly representing their first Major League free-agent signing of the offseason. The Indians have been more active on the trade front, though they’ve dealt away more MLB talent (Yan Gomes, Yonder Alonso, Edwin Encarnacion) than they’ve acquired while also losing free agents Michael Brantley (to the Astros) and Cody Allen (to the Angels).
That makes for a puzzling offseason for a club that entered the winter widely expected to run away with its fourth straight division title in 2019. Cleveland may still be the favorites, but improvements by the Twins and White Sox alike will give the Tribe a tougher time in securing a division title — especially considering the lack of improvement this winter. Payroll issues, however, have been said to be a very real limitation in Cleveland after a franchise-record figure in 2018, and it doesn’t seem as if the team is poised to make any notable expenditures between now and Opening Day. All that said, if Perez is able to remotely approximate last season’s excellence, he’ll help to solidify a bullpen that was in dire need of augmentation.
MLBTR Poll: The State Of The Indians Bullpen
Cody Allen will be closing games for the Los Angeles Angels next season, but the long-time fixture of the Cleveland bullpen may still add some value to the Indians’ 2019 bullpen: as a scout. It was Allen who first brought Jon Edwards to the attention of the Cleveland front office after working out at the same facility as the right-hander, per the Athletic’s Zack Meisel. Edwards, 30, made 9 appearances for the Indians last season after making his way back to the game, missing all of 2017 and almost leaving baseball altogether. Now Edwards is one of the arms that manager Tito Francona will turn to as the Indians’ bullpen tries to make up for the loss of both Allen and Andrew Miller in free agency.
The glass half-full approach might look at the 2.9 WAR totaled by the Indians bullpen in 2018 and say there’s not all that much room to make up. Still, the bullpen unit earned 6.9 WAR in 2017 after fueling the Indians’ World Series run in 2016, and they’ve helped spark an evolution of the bullpen league-wide. It’s an uncertain unit this time around, with Edwards, Adam Cimber, Nick Goody, Dan Otero, Neil Ramirez and Tyler Olson the most established arms set to pitch in front of closer Brad Hand. Former starters Danny Salazar and Cody Anderson may get the Collin McHugh treatment if they can get healthy this season and contribute as McHugh did for the Astros last year. Salazar is a particularly interesting wrinkle as his career 10.51 K/9 could move even higher in shorter stints out of the pen. He was a top-3 pitcher in their rotation before getting injured. Mike Clevinger and Shane Bieber may have usurped his spot in the rotation, but Salazar has the opportunity to be an impact arm where Cleveland needs the help most.
Newly-acquired youngsters Jefry Rodriguez and Chih-Wei Hu have added to the organization’s overall depth, and they’ll compete with veteran castoffs like James Hoyt, Justin Grimm, and A.J. Cole to claim the open spots in Cleveland’s pen. It’s a long season, and just as often as a veteran bullpener falls apart, a new stud develops out of nowhere. There’s a case to be made that the Indians collection of arms is more than enough to put together a dominant bullpen, it’s just unclear which 7-10 names are most likely to be a part of it. The Indians may feel that the risk of paying significant money to tired, veteran arms isn’t any more risky than relying on a large group of high-end hopefuls to develop confidence and dependability in the nine months from when pitchers and catchers report in February to the playoffs in October. There’s high-end potential in the names above, and they have another reason to be optimistic as well: top prospect Triston McKenzie has risen steadily through the system, and it’s not outside the realm of possibility that the 21-year-old could be ready for an Adam Wainwright/David Price style call up if he continues to succeed in Triple A.
Francona may cull together a functional group from the arms already in-house, but no matter how you slice it, it’s a far cry from the back-end dependability the AL Central champs have leaned on throughout this current run atop the division. There are other issues at hand for the Indians as well, who are facing a significant amount of roster churn. There’s a leadership void to fill around Francisco Lindor, and it’s unclear at this time who will step up, per Cleveland.com’s Paul Hoynes. Lindor certainly has the talent to be “the guy” in the clubhouse, but it’s tough for the best on-field producer to also shoulder the load of managing the clubhouse as a lone sheriff. Allen has been a big-time leader in the bullpen, and Rajai Davis a vocal veteran leader who will no longer be with the club as well. They may have more of a fight on their hands for the AL Central crown too, as the Twins added a ton of right-handed power as they look to rebound, and the White Sox rebuild is nearing a crescendo.
Even if they capture their fourth straight division title, the Indians will have a tough time surviving the playoff gauntlet in a top-heavy American League if they don’t get some reliability and shutdown firepower from their bullpen. The Yankees have not been shy about investing heavily in their bullpen for a couple of seasons, and the rest of the league is starting to follow suit, but as of right now, the Indians, as well as some other contenders like the Red Sox and Cubs, are holding steady with the arms they’ve got in-house. In the past it’s been unwise to invest in the bullpen, an area of notoriously fickle year-to-year performance, but the tide has turned and the Indians run the risk of seeming painfully out-of-step. The rotation remains stacked, but given that it only took one year, $8.5MM for LA to lock down Allen, it’s fair to wonder if the Indians are playing a little too fast and loose with their bullpen.
How do you feel about the current state of the Indians pen? (Link for app users).
How Should The Indians Feel About Their Bullpen?
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Cautiously Optimistic. Someone will step up. Happens every year. 43% (3,018)
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Panicked. Hand can't pitch every day. 41% (2,853)
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Good. Hand, Cimber, Salazar, and Otero are underrated. They'll be fine. 16% (1,130)
Total votes: 7,001
Market Notes: Machado, White Sox, Mystery Team, Kipnis, Marwin
Despite recent reports that the White Sox have made an eight-year offer to Manny Machado, a parade of others are reporting that the team has not moved off of its previous seven-year offer. Bob Nightengale of USA Today tweeted that the ChiSox have not made any alterations to their original seven-year offer, which was put on the table about two weeks back. Bruce Levine of 670 The Score/CBS Chicago suggests the same, via Twitter, adding that the offer presently on the table to Machado is valued between $25-30MM annually. That’d peg Chicago’s offer somewhere in the $175-210MM range — well shy of Machado’s reported $325MM+ target.
- While the White Sox have gone to some unique measures to make Chicago a bit more appealing for Machado — acquiring his brother-in-law, Yonder Alonso, and signing close friend Jon Jay — SNY’s Andy Martino writes that Machado won’t be wooed by anything other than the largest offer (which goes without saying for the majority of free agents). More interesting from Martino’s report is the possibility of some dark-horse teams in the mix on Machado. While Martino acknowledges that the “mystery team” trope is overplayed and is “often mocked for good reason, we hear reliably that it’s true in this case.”
- The Indians are still dabbling in trade talks, but it doesn’t sound as if the team has much hope of moving Jason Kipnis. According to Paul Hoynes of the Plain Dealer, there was an effort to do so previously. But while an improved second half helped the Cleveland cause, the crowded second base market made it hard to find any traction. The 31-year-old has turned in below-average offensive seasons for two years running, but he’s still a useful player and has a significant established ceiling. The recent showing isn’t enough to justify his $14.5MM salary, particularly with another $2.5MM promised as a buyout on a 2020 option, but the Indians surely feel they can make good use of Kipnis in the season to come. For now, he’s penciled in at second base but his ability to play the outfield could give the Indians some added flexibility as they seek a means of improving their lineup.
- While a rumor sprang up this evening that the Braves had a deal with Marwin Gonzalez, that doesn’t seem to have any legs. Enrique Rojas of ESPN Deports tweets that the Atlanta organization has not made any offers to the free agent, though it has shown interest in him. Presumably, the Braves see Gonzalez as a potential option in the corner outfield for the coming season. His versatility would be an asset, too, as he’d be capable of covering in the infield if a need arose in the near or long term. Of course, it remains unclear whether the Braves will pursue a multi-year deal with Gonzalez or another free agent, or whether they’ll try to wait out the market in hopes of securing a quality player on a short-term deal.
Padres, Reds, Indians Have Discussed 3-Team Scenario Involving Corey Kluber
The Padres, Reds, and Indians have engaged in discussions regarding a possible three-team trade scenario, according to Dennis Lin and Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic (Twitter links).
Precise permutations aren’t known, but the concept at play appears to be one that would send Cleveland ace Corey Kluber to Cincinnati via San Diego. Neither is it clear how serious talks are; Lin does emphasize, though, that no deal is close at present.
It seems the driving force here is the Friars’ search for a third baseman — and their ongoing attempt to structure a significant deal that improves the MLB roster now without denting the future outlook. Having failed to line up in direct talks to this point, Lin suggests, GM A.J. Preller is attempting to piece together more complicated, three-team arrangements.
While the Padres have long been said to be seeking quality MLB starting pitching, in addition to a hot corner upgrade, the report makes clear that they aren’t interested in acquiring Kluber for their own purposes. Though the outstanding righty certainly would be the ace the club would like to pick up, his relatively advanced age (33 in April) is a turnoff. And though his contract rights — $52.5MM over the next three years, the latter two via club option — remain quite appealing, it’s still a hefty payroll commitment for a traditionally low-budget org.
Of course, that same essential description holds also for the Reds, another team that’s hoping to boost its immediate performance while maintaining its long-term vision for a young, sustainable core. The Cincy ballclub has long been said to have interest in Kluber, and may have a slightly different tolerance for the age risk that comes with him.
Still, it’s no surprise to hear Lin reiterate that the club still isn’t terribly inclined to deal top prospect Nick Senzel to facilitate a deal. Senzel will not be parted with lightly, but indications are that he may ultimately be the object of the Padres’ fascination here. He’d more or less step right in at third base in San Diego and deliver a prized combination of youthful upside and affordable team control.
That leads to the element of this concept that’s most curious of all. The budget-conscious Indians only embarked upon talks involving Kluber as part of an effort to trim some payroll and better situate their roster for the future — all without sacrificing a still-clear path to another AL Central crown. That entire undertaking makes the most sense if the club adds a player of Senzel’s ilk.
Senzel would fit perfectly in Cleveland, where he could line up in the infield or outfield. (The Reds, of course, have considered utilizing him on the grass due to their own bumper crop of quality infielders.) Presumably, the Reds and Indians have already explored a Senzel-for-Kluber deal directly and failed to find common ground. Otherwise, it’s hard to see why the intermediary would be needed at all.
If not Senzel, then what would the Indians want out of all this? There’d surely be some level of interest in some of the Padres’ young MLB assets, with outfielder Manuel Margot and catcher Austin Hedges looking to be hypothetical fits from an outside perspective. (Interestingly, those teams lined up last summer on a deal that sent Francisco Mejia — another theoretical match — to San Diego.) But it stands to reason that the Indians would no doubt also demand some top-end young talent to drive the deal. The San Diego farm is loaded, but its very best pieces (Fernando Tatis Jr., especially) may not be on offer.
All said, it’s possible to imagine some permutations that might make sense for all involved, depending upon how the teams value the various potential pieces. But it’s an awfully tricky match. All three clubs are quite payroll sensitive. Of them, the Indians are clearly in the best position to win now, yet they’d be giving up the win-now piece. If there’s real substance to these discussions, or better still an eventual transaction, it’ll certainly represent a fascinating potential case study for understanding contemporary baseball decisionmaking.
Central Notes: Machado, Cardinals, Reds, Zimmer
Could the White Sox now be the favorites to land Manny Machado? Despite whispers of a mystery team being involved in Machado’s market, the Sox, Yankees, and Phillies were known to be the three clubs most heavily pursuing the free agent infielder. However, with the Yankees addressing their infield needs elsewhere and the Phillies perhaps now in the driver’s seat to sign Bryce Harper, it leaves the White Sox as potentially the last team standing for Machado. While things seem to be leaning in the Pale Hose’s direction right now, an industry source tells Daryl Van Schouwen of the Chicago Sun-Times that “everything is still on the table” in regards to where Machado or Harper could sign. “These guys are still so young (both 26), so if things aren’t what they want they could gamble and take a much shorter deal and try [free agency] again in the near future,” the source speculated.
More from both the AL and NL Central divisions…
- The Cardinals have yet to hold any extension talks with Paul Goldschmidt, Marcell Ozuna, or Michael Wacha, GM Michael Girsch told Rick Hummel of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch and other media. All three players are scheduled for free agency next winter, and while negotiations could yet take place later in the offseason, Girsch said “We’ll see how this year goes” in regards to the trio. Since Goldschmidt has yet to play a game in a Cards uniform, it would be very surprising to see him ink an extension before getting a chance to test the open market. As for Ozuna and Wacha, it makes sense for the Cardinals to see how either player bounces back from an injury-marred 2018 before making a long-term commitment. Ozuna was solid but unspectacular last season, hitting .280/.325/.433 with 23 homers over 628 plate appearances while dealing with nagging shoulder issues. Wacha, meanwhile, didn’t pitch after June 20 due to an oblique injury.
- If the Reds could only spend their money on either Dallas Keuchel or A.J. Pollock, MLB.com’s Mark Sheldon feels the team would choose Keuchel, given the greater need for rotation help. Both players have been linked to the Reds in hot stove rumors this winter, and while Cincinnati has made some notable additions (i.e. Alex Wood and Tanner Roark) to its starting five, it still lacks a top-of-the-rotation arm. Without Pollock or another true center fielder, the Reds could at least make do at the position in the short term, using some combination of Scott Schebler, Yasiel Puig, and Nick Senzel between the corners. In another question in Sheldon’s mailbag piece, he doesn’t feel Jesse Winker will be an option in center field due to Winker’s lack of range.
- Indians outfielder Bradley Zimmer is hoping to beat his recovery timetable as he rehabs from shoulder surgery, telling MLB.com’s Mandy Bell and other reporters that “I feel like I’ll be ready for Spring Training.” Zimmer was slated for an eight-to-twelve month absence from baseball activities after undergoing labrum surgery last July, so he feels he is making good progress, while acknowledging that “the timetable is not really in my hands, as far as my progression.” Still, it seems to be a good sign that the former top prospect is looking to hit the field sooner rather than later, especially since the Tribe is sore need of outfield help. Zimmer has just a .237/.300/.370 slash line over 446 PA in the big leagues, though he has already displayed some quality baserunning and slick glovework in his brief time at the MLB level.
NL Notes: Kluber, Padres, Dodgers, Harper, Nats, Cubs, Boras/Phils
The Padres persist in their dogged pursuit of Indians ace Corey Kluber, per MLB.com’s JP Morosi, who notes that the club would prefer to hold on to each of its top five prospects. The Tribe reportedly “have interest” in lefty Adrian Morejon, who, despite his status as a consensus top 50-75 prospect, wouldn’t fall into the aforementioned category in a loaded Padre farm. Still, it’s tough to see a deal consummated without one of those players; Cleveland, after all, has been widely reported to be seeking a Chris Sale-esque return for Kluber, and wouldn’t likely settle for even high-grade chaff. If the club is still interested in dealing the 32-year-old ace, the Padres would be seem a perfect fit: the club is loaded not only with blue-chip prospects, but also sport a glut of young, if underperforming, outfielders at every position. Morosi lists Manuel Margot and Hunter Renfroe as options, though the Tribe may also have its eyes on Franmil Reyes and Franchy Cordero, in addition to the richly-paid Wil Myers.
More from the Senior Circuit …
- In the same article, Morosi reports that the Dodgers still “remain involved” in discussions for Kluber. The club certainly boasts its share of high-level farm talent – though it can’t match the San Diego riches – but thus far, under the tenure of Baseball Ops President Andrew Friedman, has been altogether opposed to dealing from the top of its farm. Multiple high-level departures would be an unequivocal sea change for the boys in blue, who may be feeling the pressure from a desperate fanbase after so many near-misses in the recent past. Adding Kluber to the top of the team’s rotation without a 25-man prune has to be tempting for even the most measured of front offices, but the slotted five (Clayton Kershaw, Walker Buehler, Hyun-Jin Ryu, Kenta Maeda, and Rich Hill) already rival any in the game.
- Though many executives questioned the veracity of the Nationals‘ reported 10-year, $300MM offer to Bryce Harper on the last day of the season, The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal reports that the offer was “indeed real,” and that the two sides continue to negotiate. Harper, it seems, would very much like to surpass the $325MM guaranteed to Giancarlo Stanton, though doesn’t appear to have the wind-ranging market he once envisioned. Some interested teams continue to disguise their intentions, but not the Cubs, who Rosenthal notes “would love” a shot at Harper, if only the front office could get the “unlikely” go-ahead from ownership.
- Jim Salisbury of NBC Sports Philadelphia details the Fightins’ unique relationship with agent Scott Boras over the years, which reached a tipping point over 1997’s bitter dispute with number two overall pick J.D. Drew. The Phillies, of course, are set to meet with Harper today in Las Vegas, and have long been considered the near-favorite for his services. Per Salisbury, the club plans to address recent reports that the 26-year-old star is not fond of Philadelphia, which would seem to strike a death knell to the team’s chances. Among all potential suitors with near-term competitive ambitions, the Phils have the greatest need – and, perhaps, the most available cash – for Harper, and perhaps the team’s recent amenability with Boras could tip the scales in its direction.
Unresolved 2019 Arbitration Cases
Yesterday’s arbitration deadline wasn’t a firm date for agreeing to terms. Rather, it was the end of the period to negotiate before submitting numbers for possible hearings. Negotiations can continue thereafter, but teams and players will now have to defend their submission numbers if they can’t bridge the gap before a hearing. Baseball arb panels simply pick one side’s number; that aspect of the process is designed to force the parties to the bargaining table.
[RELATED: MLBTR Arbitration Projections; MLBTR Arbitration Tracker]
Here’s what we know thus far about the still-unresolved cases:
Today’s Updates
- The Yankees have yet to come to a deal with ace starter Luis Severino, and they may be heading to arbitration. The Yanks have submitted their bid at $4.4MM, while Severino has asked for $5.25MM, per USA Today’s Bob Nightengale (via Twitter).
- Tommy Pham and the Rays have submitted their numbers for arbitration, per USA Today’s Bob Nightengale (via Twitter). Pham filed at $4.1MM while the Rays submitted a bid of $3.5MM. Pham has had no problem expressing his honest opinion about the Rays fanbase of late, and it will be interesting to see if he gets an equal portion of honest feedback in return in his arbitration hearing.
- The Oakland A’s and their closer Blake Treinen have both submitted their numbers, with the team coming in at $5.6MM while Treinen files for $6.4MM, per Fancred’s Jon Heyman (via Twitter). It’s not a shock to see these sides far apart, given Treinen’s remarkable 2018 and how far above his usual standard of production last season’s numbers fell.
- Washington Nationals filed at $1.725MM for newcomer Kyle Barraclough, who counters at $2MM, per Nightengale (via Twitter). The former Marlin was acquired in an uncommonly early offseason trade that sent international bonus pool money the Marlins’ way.
- The Diamondbacks have only one player they did not reach an agreement with, lefty reliever T.J. McFarland. The Dbacks submitted a bid of $1.275MM, while McFarland is asking for $1.675MM, per Nightengale (via Twitter).
- Alex Wood submitted $9.65MM for his 2019 salary, while his new club the Cincinnati Reds countered at $8.7MM, per Nightengale (via Twitter). Wood will be a free agent at season’s end.
- The Detroit Tigers reached agreements with all of their arbitration eligible players except for right-handed starter Michael Fulmer. Fulmer comes in at $3.4MM with the team countering at $2.8MM, the difference being 600K, per Nightengale (via Twitter).
- Ryan Tepera has filed for $1.8MM while the Blue Jays submitted their bid at $1.525MM, per Nightengale (via Twitter). Tepera has been a reliable bullpen arm for the Jays through his first four seasons. He has two more seasons of arbitration remaining, set to reach free agency in advance of the 2022 season.
- Reserve outfielder Michael A. Taylor and the Washington Nationals are a 250K apart, per Nightengale (via Twitter). Seems like a rather small sum to quibble over in the grand scheme of things, but every cent counts right now in Washington, it seems. Taylor submitted a bid of $3.5MM, with the Nats countering at $3.25MM.
Earlier Updates
- Rockies star Nolan Arenado is headed for a record arb salary, unsurprisingly. The question is by how much. He has filed at a whopping $30MM, with the club countering at $24MM, per Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic (via Twitter). Even the lower figure would represent a record. It doesn’t seem as if the sides will go to a high-stakes hearing on this one; Jeff Passan of ESPN.com tweets that the odds are good they’ll find common ground. MLBTR and contributor Matt Swartz projected Arenado to earn $26.1MM, though he also explained that it’s not hard to see that number swaying in either direction based upon a close examination of the (few relevant) comps.
- Despite a monster 2018 season, Phillies righty Aaron Nola isn’t seeking to set a record first-year arb starter salary. (That belongs to Dallas Keuchel, at $7.25MM, when he was coming off of a Cy Young season.) Nola did file at a hefty $6.75MM, per Jim Salisbury of NBC Sports Philadelphia (via Twitter), while the club entered just $4.5MM. It’ll be interesting to see how this one plays out. The Keuchel salary represented a sea change for young starters, but few others have tested the process since. MLBTR’s projection system spit out a $6.6MM figure for Nola.
- Righty Gerrit Cole filed at $13.5MM, while the Astros countered at $11.425MM, according to Jon Heyman of Fancred (Twitter link). Teammates Carlos Correa and Chris Devenski have also yet to agree to terms. MLBTR projected Cole to earn $13.1MM in his final arb season, Correa to check in at $5.1MM in his first arb year, and Devenski to take home $1.4MM his first time through the process.
- Indians righty Trevor Bauer is seeking a $13MM payday, while the club will argue instead for $11MM, per Paul Hoynes of the Plain Dealer (via Twitter). The Cleveland org has long utilized a file-and-trial approach on a case-by-case basis. It’s not totally clear whether that’ll be the approach here, but as Hoynes notes, the sides did go to a hearing already last year. (Bauer won.) MLBTR projected a $11.6MM payday; Swartz also explained why he thought the model was likely in the right ballpark for Bauer in a detailed post.
- Passan provides a list of other players who have yet to agree to terms and who could therefore still end up before a panel. There are fifteen in total, including those already noted above as well as Kyle Barraclough and Michael Taylor (Nationals), Michael Fulmer (Tigers), T.J. McFarland (Diamondbacks), Tommy Pham (Rays), Luis Severino (Yankees), Ryan Tepera (Blue Jays), Blake Treinen (Athletics), and Alex Wood (Reds).