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AL Central Links: Volstad, Masterson, Indians, ChiSox

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As the World Series shifts to Comerica Park for tomorrow's Game Three, here's the latest from around the AL Central….

  • The Royals' waiver claim pickup of Chris Volstad could be a sign of how the team plans to take a low-cost approach to upgrading its pitching staff, writes Bob Dutton of the Kansas City Star.  Royals GM Dayton Moore said free agents "won’t be a long-term answer for us” because the club hopes to have homegrown pitching prospects in the rotation by 2014.  “We’ve got to look internally,” Moore said. “We’ve got to look through trades. We’ve got to look, certainly, through free agency…we might be able to pick off a player or two, but we’re not going to build our team through free agency. It won’t work.”
  • Given the Indians' need for pitching and the cost of acquiring new starters, MLB.com's Jordan Bastian believes the team won't deal starter Justin Masterson (Twitter link).  The groundball specialist has been rumored to be on the trade market following a disappointing 2012 season.
  • Travis Hafner's $13MM team option for 2013 is a sure bet to be bought out by the Indians, tweets Bastian, while the Tribe will likely also decline Roberto Hernandez's $6MM club option.  Ubaldo Jimenez's $5.75MM club option for next season is "expected" to be picked up.  Bastian thinks it's "hard to believe" that the Indians would re-sign the injury-plagued Grady Sizemore as a free agent. 
  • The White Sox face four difficult option decisions on Jake Peavy, Kevin Youkilis, Gavin Floyd and Brett Myers, writes Paul Swydan for ESPN (Insider subscription required).  Swydan opines that Floyd is a more proven rotation candidate than Myers and "if only one option of the two is picked up, it should be Floyd's," while Youkilis could be a good candidate to be retained given Chicago's lack of depth at third base.  Peavy's $22MM option "is difficult to justify" given his injury history, though Swydan notes that Peavy provided close to $20MM worth of value during his healthy 2012 season.
  • In other White Sox news, Hahn discussed Peavy's option and more in his introductory press conference as the club's new general manager.

Offseason Outlook: Cleveland Indians

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The Indians will add starting pitching and consider trading some established arbitration eligible stars.

Guaranteed Contracts

Arbitration Eligible Players (estimated salaries)

Contract Options

Free Agents

The Indians fired their manager following a trying season that saw the team lose 53 of 77 second half games. They had to let Manny Acta go after such a dismal finish, and hiring Terry Francona seems like a positive development for a franchise that hasn't finished above .500 since losing to Francona's Red Sox in the 2007 ALCS. It’s not enough. The Indians must also add starting pitching depth and improve on a below-average offense in the offseason ahead.

Chris Perez - Indians (PW)

Indians starters were ineffective in 2012. The group ranked near the bottom of the league in innings (27th in MLB, 913 2/3), strikeout rate (29th, 6.1 K/9), walk rate (28th, 3.5 BB/9), ERA (28th, 5.25) and wins above replacement (28th, 4.6 fWAR). They were historically bad in many departments, as MLB.com’s Jordan Bastian detailed this month.

The Indians have spent with characteristic small-market restraint in the first two offseasons under general manager Chris Antonetti. It might now be time for the Indians to rely more extensively on the free agent market. Next year's payroll includes just $11MM in guaranteed contracts at this point, according to Cot's Baseball Contracts. This should lead to some payroll flexibility, even after accounting for the team's large class of arbitration eligible players.

Though Justin Masterson has succeeded before and Zach McAllister and Corey Kluber showed promise this past season, the Indians need help. Internal options like Carlos Carrasco, David Huff and Jeanmar Gomez will get opportunities at some point, but relying on them to carry the team through a six-month schedule would be excessively risky.

Shaun Marcum, Joe Blanton, Ryan Dempster, Paul Maholm, Brandon McCarthy and Chris Young are some of the mid-rotation free agents Antonetti could pursue. If the Indians look to the trade market for starting pitching, they could consider targeting pitchers such as Jason Vargas, Chris Capuano, Aaron Harang and Jon Niese. Whether it's through trades or free agent signings Antonetti must obtain starting pitching. 

Antonetti faces a pair of option decisions on starters who have struggled in recent years. Ubaldo Jimenez can be retained for $5.75MM or the club could decline the option following a disappointing season and a half in Cleveland. Declining the option makes sense given Jimenez's diminishing velocity and poor peripheral stats. It seems unlikely that the Indians will exercise Roberto Hernandez's $6MM option given his poor performance. His late-season ankle injury doesn’t help his case, nor do the recent revelations regarding his age and identity.

The Indians' struggles weren't confined to the rotation. They out-scored just one American League team in a season that yielded minimal production from traditionally offensive positions. Cleveland left fielders ranked last in MLB at their position with a .598 OPS. The team's first basemen (28th, .675), third basemen (24th, .677) and designated hitters (11th in AL, .702) weren't much better.

Assuming the Indians give third baseman Lonnie Chisenhall time to succeed they'll be looking at designated hitters, first basemen and left fielders this coming offseason. Spending on powerful free agents at these offense-first positions gets expensive. The Indians might find solutions to some of their offensive issues in this way, but they must also be able to find bats affordably. Players break out every year, so the Indians would do well to find this year's Brandon Moss or this year's Ryan Ludwick. Easier said than done, I know. Tyler Moore and Lucas Duda are examples of the powerful, controllable players that might intrigue Indians executives this winter.

The Indians will decline Travis Hafner's option, opening up the designated hitter spot for a newcomer. Francona would gain flexibility if his bosses don't acquire a positionless DH, so there's no need to spend on an aging slugger for the sake of tradition. It doesn't sound as though longtime Indians star Grady Sizemore will have a role on next year's team either.

Chris Perez tested the patience of Indians ownership this summer, publicly criticizing the team for its modest spending. As irksome as his words must have been, the comments themselves wouldn’t justify a trade. But when you consider Perez’s upcoming arbitration raise and the value he’d have as a trade candidate, the argument in favor of a deal becomes convincing. Better to obtain something of value for the outspoken 27-year-old while it's still possible to do so.

Perez isn’t the only trade candidate in town. It seems unlikely that the Indians will find common ground with Shin-Soo Choo on an extension, especially now that the Scott Boras client is just one year away from free agency. The Indians have discussed the possibility multiple times without making an offer Choo felt inclined to accept. Antonetti will consider trade offers for the arbitration eligible outfielder this offseason, and if the GM can get a controllable player who projects as an MLB regular he should make the trade instead of waiting and taking the risk that Choo’s trade value will diminish. The Mariners, Mets, Yankees and Giants are among the teams that could have interest in the right fielder. 

Masterson’s name could surface in trade rumors this winter, as it did a few months ago. Yet the Indians might prefer to keep the right-hander in place and see if he can return to form under Francona, who managed him in Boston. Teams might also call on Asdrubal Cabrera given the scarcity of available shortstops, but dealing the 26-year-old infielder would create as many questions as it would resolve. Expect Cabrera to stay put — at least until the Indians' top shortstop prospects are ready for the MLB level.

Perez, Choo and Masterson lead a large class of arbitration eligible players. The Indians could non-tender a number of players, including Rafael Perez, Kevin Slowey and Brent Lillibridge. Jack Hannahan is a borderline case who could also be cut loose. The group doesn't include any extension candidates other than Choo, who doesn't seem inclined to sign. The Indians could also attempt to lock pre-arbitration eligible second baseman Jason Kipnis up given his strong showing in 2012.

In the next few months, Antonetti must address needs in the rotation and on offense while working with a small payroll. And though the Indians aren't in total re-build mode, they're multiple pieces away from winning anything. That's one tough offseason assignment.

Photo courtesy of US Presswire.

Quick Hits: Youkilis, Indians, Dodgers, A’s

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The Cardinals took a 2-1 series lead over the Giants in the NLCS after a three-and-a-half hour rain delay brought the game to a halt in the seventh inning.  Meanwhile, the Yankees and Tigers will have to wait until tomorrow afternoon to kick off Game 4 of their series due to the threat of storms headed towards Comerica Park.  Here's tonight's look around baseball..

  • Some see the Indians, with new manager Terry Francona in the fold, as a threat to sign Kevin Youkilis, writes Jon Heyman of CBSSports.com.  The White Sox are expected to decline the veteran's $13MM option for 2013 but would like to have him back in the clubhouse next season.
  • Matt Eddy of Baseball America looks at the best surprises to come from minor league free agents this season.  At the top of the list are Gregor Blanco of the Giants and Miguel Gonzalez of the Orioles.
  • Bill Shaikin of the Los Angeles Times (via Twitter) doesn't think that the Dodgers should expect third baseman Luis Cruz to have a repeat of his success next season, but he also doesn't view Alex Rodriguez as a solution either, given his declining slugging percentage dating back to 2007.  As Rodriguez continues to struggle in New York, some have speculated that the spend-happy Dodgers could have interest in him this offseason.
  • Jane Lee of MLB.com previewed the Athletics heading into the 2013 season and notes that the return of Stephen Drew would create heavy competition around him at second and third base.  Drew has a $10MM mutual option for next year.

Arbitration Eligibles: Cleveland Indians

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The Indians are next in our 2013 Arbitration Eligibles series.  Matt Swartz's salary projections are below.

Choo, Perez, and Masterson represent the Tribe's big money arbitration trio, and all will be tendered contracts.  Choo, 30, had a strong bounceback season and will be entering his contract year.  Jon Heyman of CBS Sports talked to Chris Antonetti in August, and the Indians' GM explained that Choo and agent Scott Boras have not been receptive to an extension.  Choo's trade value may be limited by the lone year of remaining control and his struggles against left-handed pitching.

Perez made headlines in September when he was mildly critical of the Indians' payroll and front office in an interview with Jon Paul Morosi of FOX Sports.  The closer later hashed things out with Antonetti in a long meeting.  After that, Perez touched on his future with MLB.com's Jordan Bastian, saying, "That's a business decision that they're going to have to make.  That's not up to me. That's not my decision. I have two years left here at least. Right now, it's up to them. I think whatever they decide to do is definitely going to tell you which way the team is going one way or the other."  In other words, if the Indians trade Perez for cheaper players, it'll represent a step in the rebuilding direction.  On that point, I disagree: the value placed on the save statistic will continue to artifically inflate Perez's salary next year, and if the Indians can get a solid return for him, that's just a good baseball decision.

At a salary approaching $6MM, Masterson will be pricey for a guy coming off a 4.93 ERA.  He's better than that, and maybe the comfort of having Terry Francona as manager again will provide a small boost.

Of the team's seven remaining arbitration eligible players, many are non-tender candidates: Lillibridge, Rafael Perez, Hannahan, and Slowey.  Slowey will pitch in the Dominican Winter League following an injury-shortened 2012 campaign in which he did not return to the Majors.  Without the Rockies picking up part of the tab on Slowey this time, he's headed for a non-tender.  Lillibridge couldn't reproduce his strong part-time showing in 2011.  The Red Sox acquired Lillibridge in the Kevin Youkilis trade in late June, but designated him for assignment in less than a month, at which point the Indians got him in a minor deal.

Rafael Perez came down with shoulder soreness in March, missed most of the season, and had arthroscopic shoulder surgery in late September.  Even if he is ready for Spring Training, Perez doesn't represent a great risk of $2MM.  Hannahan, typically well-regarded for his defense, could stick around for a reduced role behind Lonnie Chisenhall.  Or, the Indians could seek a cheaper backup at third base.

Sipp has troublesome flyball/home run tendencies, though at a million bucks or so he may be retained.  Smith will remain a key cog in next year's bullpen.  With Carlos Santana spending some time at first base, Marson received more starts at catcher than a typical backup.  I expect him to be tendered a contract.

A total arbitration estimate doesn't mean much given the different trade and non-tender scenarios for the Indians.  But if Choo, Chris Perez, Masterson, Smith, Sipp, and Marson are retained, we're estimating $25.3MM for six arbitration eligible players.

Matt Swartz's arbitration projections are available exclusively at MLB Trade Rumors.  To read more about his projection model, check out this series of posts.

Central Links: Soriano, Cubs, White Sox, Mills, Royals

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The Cardinals and Tigers have met three times in the World Series, tying them with Red Sox/Cardinals and Reds/Yankees as the seventh-most common matchup in Series history.  Could the two teams share their fourth date in the Fall Classic this season?  Here's the latest from both the AL and NL Central…

  • Alfonso Soriano wants to keep playing the outfield, so the Cubs may have trouble convincing him to waive his no-trade clause to join an AL team looking for a designated hitter, reports Paul Sullivan of the Chicago Tribune.  "I don't know what I could do the whole season [as a DH]. To me, playing DH is boring. You only play like half [the game]," Soriano said.  "I always play defense and offense, so I'd always have to work hard on my mind, 'Now I'm an offense guy only.' "
  • The Cubs are likely to pursue veterans looking to rebuild value on one- or two-year contracts, opines ESPN Chicago's Bruce Levine as part of a chat with fans.  Levine cites Shaun Marcum, Daisuke Matsuzaka, Jeff Francis, Francisco Liriano, Joe Blanton and Brandon McCarthy as types of pitchers that could interest the Cubs.  Levine also discusses several other Cubs and White Sox-related topics in the all-Chicago chat.
  • The Indians will not bring back hitting coach Bruce Fields or third base coach Steve Smith, reports Paul Hoynes of the Cleveland Plain Dealer.  Smith had already said he was taking 2013 off, while Fields already has another job.  Former Astros manager Brad Mills is expected to join the Indians staff in some capacity; Mills worked on Terry Francona's coaching staffs in both Philadelphia and Boston.
  • Alcides Escobar appears to be the Royals' long-term answer at shortstop, but Bob Dutton of the Kansas City Star writes that the club has compiled lots of young depth at the position in the minor leagues.
  • From earlier today on MLBTR, I compiled some Cardinals notes, Tim Dierkes looked at the Brewers' arbitration-eligible players, and Ben Nicholson-Smith compiled a set of Tigers notes plus profiled the Cubs in the latest entry in our Offseason Outlook series.

Quick Hits: Trout, Indians, Giambi, Mets

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Mike Trout's outstanding rookie season earned him Baseball America's Rookie of the Year award, but that's not all he won. The publication named Trout the 2012 Player of the Year ahead of Buster Posey, Miguel Cabrera and others. Check out Jerry Crasnick's piece for a more complete look at Trout and continue reading for more of today’s links…

AL Central Notes: Cespedes, Boesch, Francona, Soria

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As the Tigers prepare to face the A's in the deciding game of their ALDS series, here's the latest from the AL Central…

  • The Tigers "had a de facto deal" with Yoenis Cespedes last winter, reports Peter Gammons for MLB.com, before the Tigers instead chose to sign Prince Fielder.  Cespedes, of course, signed with the A's instead and now could play a role in the end of Detroit's season.
  • Brennan Boesch wasn't on the Tigers' playoff roster and his "days likely are numbered in Detroit," writes Drew Sharp of the Detroit Free Press.  Boesch hit a disappointing .240/.286/.372 last season and will be arbitration-eligible for the first time this winter, so the Tigers might not tender him a contract.  Sharp hints that Rick Porcello could also be non-tendered (Porcello is arb-eligible for the second time), though with so many pitching-needy teams in baseball, the Tigers might be better served by dealing Porcello than cutting him outright.
  • The reported out clause in Terry Francona's Indians contract that allows the manager to leave if GM Chris Antonetti or president Mark Shapiro are fired is not a big deal, opines Terry Pluto of the Cleveland Plain Dealer.  "Shapiro and Antonetti owe their futures with the Tribe to Francona" already, Pluto argues, so if the team continues to struggle, a total change in front office and field management is the logical next step.
  • The Indians are much more likely to pursue upgrades through the trade market than through free agency, tweets Paul Hoynes of the Cleveland Plain Dealer.
  • “It’s better for me and my family (to stay with the Royals)," Joakim Soria tells Bob Dutton of the Kansas City Star.  "My wife is pregnant. I’m just focusing on my rehab. The most important thing is for me to get healthy. After that, everything else will come together."  Dutton says that Royals team officials "privately acknowledge" that Soria's $8MM option for 2013 will be bought out within three days of the World Series ending, though both sides are interested in reaching a new contract.

Duncan, Repko, Carlin, Hoey Hit Free Agency

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Outfielders Shelley Duncan and Jason Repko, catcher Luke Carlin and right-handers Jim Hoey and Robert Coello have hit free agency, according to the transactions page at CBSSports.com. Repko declared free agency while Carlin, Duncan, Hoey and Coello refused minor league assignments.

Duncan got more MLB playing time than the others in 2012. He spent much of the season as Cleveland's left fielder, and posted a .203/.288/.388 batting line in 264 MLB plate appearances. Carlin appeared in four games with the Indians this year, spending most of the season at Triple-A. The 31-year-old posted a .703 OPS in 244 plate appearances with Columbus.

Toronto outrighted Coello off of the 40-man roster two days ago after he appeared in six games with the club this past season. The 27-year-old also appeared in 19 games at Triple-A Las Vegas, posting a 3.00 ERA with 9.2 K/9 and 3.9 BB/9 in 42 innings. Hoey pitched alongside Coello in Las Vegas, posting a 4.60 ERA in 60 2/3 innings.

Repko played in five games for the Red Sox this year and posted a .743 OPS in 228 minor league plate appearances.

Managerial Notes: Leyland, Rockies, Indians, Red Sox

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Earlier today, we ran down the latest managerial news including word that Rangers skipper Ron Washington's job is safe despite the club's disappointing finish.  Here's the latest on vacancies from around the major leagues..

  • While the Tigers and manager Jim Leyland will address his contract situation at the end of the year, the skipper confirmed today that he wants to continue managing, writes Jason Beck of MLB.com.
  • Rockies senior vice president Bill Geivett told Jim Bowden (via Twitter) on MLB Network Radio that both bench coach Tom Runnells and Triple-A manager Stu Cole are internal candidates for their managerial job. 
  • As of now, former Astros skipper Brad Mills is not joining the Indians staff under Terry Francona, tweets Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe.  Mills served as Francona's bench coach while with the Red Sox.
  • Red Sox General Manager Ben Cherington declined to comment when asked if he has requested permission to interview candidates from other clubs, tweets Peter Abraham of the Boston Globe.  Of course, there has been wide speculation that the Red Sox are interested in Blue Jays manager John Farrell.
  • Mike Lowell told Rob Bradford of WEEI.com that he would want to know the "ins and outs" of an organization before taking on the role of manager.  Yesterday, Lowell told Jon Heyman of CBSSports.com that he's not looking to become a big league manager at this point in time despite being linked to the Marlins job.

AL Central Notes: Tigers, Francona, Alomar

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Anibal Sanchez will take the ball in Oakland tonight as the Tigers look to advance to the ALCS for the second consecutive season. In the meantime, here are some AL Central links…

  • The Tigers' decision to trade for Sanchez and Omar Infante looks better than ever, Drew Sharp of the Detroit Free Press writes. Sanchez, a free agent this offseason, said he doesn't think much about what will happen when his contract expires. "Right now, I just focus on what I'm going to do tomorrow," he said.
  • Manager Terry Francona said he's not worried about how much the Indians spend on payroll, Sheldon Ocker of the Akron Beacon Journal reports. "My job is to build a relationship with every player on the team and get the most out of them,” Francona said. The skipper is believed to be earning something close to the $4MM salary he earned in Boston, Ocker writes.
  • Francona and GM Chris Antonetti have talked to Sandy Alomar Jr. about joining the Indians’ on-field staff, Paul Hoynes of the Cleveland Plain Dealer reports (via Sulia). Alomar told Hoynes he expects to return, though managerial opportunities could emerge elsewhere. Alomar, a 20-year veteran of the Major Leagues, was a finalist for the Indians job.
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