Tigers Unlikely To Trade Justin Verlander Before Deadline
Barring a “miracle,” Justin Verlander will remain with the Tigers through this Monday’s non-waiver trade deadline, sources tell Jon Heyman of FanRag. Perhaps unsurprisingly, the chief sticking point is Verlander’s contract, which pays him $28MM a season through 2019. Potential trade partners “want no part” of that contract, Heyman writes.
I wrote about the complexities of a potential Verlander deal earlier this week, noting Verlander’s contract, age (34) and underwhelming 2017 performance (4.50 ERA, 8.7 K/9 and 4.1 BB/9 over 124 innings). The Cubs have been the team most frequently connected to Verlander, and they could conceivably afford him, but his contract remains an issue. To facilitate a deal, the Tigers likely would either have to take on a significant portion of the contract, settle for a very modest talent return, or both. In addition, Verlander has a full no-trade clause. Heyman suggests Verlander could clear waivers, making an August trade a possibility, but he’s more likely to be dealt next winter.
East Notes: Nationals, Wilson, Tulowitzki, Straily
The Nationals are keenly interested in Tigers lefty Justin Wilson, FOX Sports’ Ken Rosenthal tweets. The rumors surrounding Wilson have been hot and heavy, with 11 teams connected to him yesterday alone, and Rosenthal notes that no team is close to completing a deal for Wilson and that there are around eight clubs still involved in the bidding. In Washington, Wilson would join an already lefty-heavy bullpen that currently features Enny Romero, Oliver Perez, Matt Grace, Sammy Solis and the newly acquired Sean Doolittle. Of course, he would be used in a late-inning role where handedness isn’t crucial. Wilson has a 2.75 ERA, 12.6 K/9 and 3.7 BB/9 in 39 1/3 innings so far this season. Here are more quick notes from the NL.
- The Blue Jays have placed shortstop Troy Tulowitzki on the 10-day disabled list and recalled the newly acquired Rob Refsnyder, Sportsnet’s Shi Davidi tweets. The oft-injured Tulowitzki suffered an ankle injury yesterday and will have an MRI. With Tulowitzki on the shelf, some combination of Ryan Goins and Darwin Barney will likely handle shortstop duty, with Refsnyder perhaps playing a bit of second base. Tulowitzki is batting .249/.300/.378 in 260 plate appearances this season.
- The Brewers, Royals, Rockies and Yankees all have interest in Marlins starter Dan Straily, Clark Spencer of the Miami Herald writes (Twitter links). Yesterday, a report indicated that the Marlins had “taken [Straily] off the market,” although, as MLBTR’s Steve Adams noted, it would have been surprising if Straily truly were completely unavailable when the Marlins were reportedly recently initiating contact with other teams about him. At last check, the Marlins were hoping to land a terrific trade package for Straily, who’s in his second straight year as a productive starter, with a 3.84 ERA, 8.2 K/9 and 2.5 BB/9 over 117 1/3 innings. He also has three years of control remaining after this one, potentially making him an interesting addition for a team like the Brewers or Yankees that has an eye on the future as well as the present.
Trade Rumblings: Lynn, Darvish, Strickland, Johnson, Cubs, Blevins
Teams around the league are waiting for the Cardinals to give a clear indication that they intend to trade right-hander Lance Lynn, tweets ESPN’s Buster Olney. The impending free agent is among the most sought-after assets in a thin market for starting pitching, Olney adds. Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch suggests, though, that the Cardinals haven’t exactly made Lynn’s availability a secret. St. Louis is “in the process of generating a market and offers” for Lynn, according to Goold, though they’re also still trying to acquire a bat to put in the middle of their lineup. Goold speculates that once Sonny Gray is finally traded, other clubs may then pivot to the Redbirds and make their best offer for Lynn, who hasn’t had any substantive talks with Cardinals brass about an extension. The Yankees have interest in Lynn, per Goold, who also notes that the Dodgers and Indians have scouted St. Louis recently. MLB.com’s Jon Morosi tweets that the Royals have also had recent talks with the Cardinals about Lynn.
More trade rumblings with the non-waiver deadline now less than 72 hours away…
- Yu Darvish is still the Dodgers’ top target, but the team isn’t likely to surrender any of its “very top prospects” in order to pry him away from the Rangers, per Jon Heyman of FanRag Sports. The Dodgers view Sonny Gray as a fallback option for Darvish, who is also drawing interest from the Yankees, Cubs and Astros, according to Heyman.
- ESPN’s Jerry Crasnick tweets that the Giants are open to moving Hunter Strickland but feel that the vast number of relief options available on the trade market could prevent them from extracting max value. As such, San Francisco may simply elect to hold onto the 28-year-old with the intent of pairing him with Mark Melancon, a returning Will Smith and a seemingly rejuvenated Sam Dyson at the back of the bullpen in 2018. (On a somewhat related note, MLBTR recently ran down the trade market for right-handed relievers and for left-handed relievers.)
- Also from Crasnick (Twitter link), the Braves are listening to offers for right-hander Jim Johnson, though they’re not actively trying to move the veteran, either. The 34-year-old is playing out the first season of a two-year, $10MM extension inked last October. He’s worked to a 4.10 ERA through 41 2/3 frames, albeit with a career-high 10.8 K/9 that has contributed to a more encouraging 3.21 SIERA mark. Johnson’s 50.5 percent ground-ball rate is the lowest of his career, though, and his 3.2 BB/9 represents his highest mark since a brutal 2014 season.
- The Cubs have been oft-connected to Tigers catcher Alex Avila as they seek to acquire a more experienced backup option to young Willson Contreras, but MLB Network’s Ken Rosenthal tweets that Avila is one of many names on the Cubs’ list. He’s not a priority for the Cubs, per Rosenthal, who adds that Chicago is seeking more of a defense-first upgrade. MLB.com’s Joe Frisaro tweets that Chicago could be in on Marlins veteran A.J. Ellis as a possible option. Among the catchers that are likely to be available, Rene Rivera may well have the best defensive reputation.
- Newsday’s Marc Carig tweets that teams have continued to call the Mets on the availability of left-hander Jerry Blevins, but GM Sandy Alderson and his staff aren’t keen on moving the 33-year-old. Blevins is viewed by the Mets as an important piece to the team’s 2018 plans, per Carig. Blevins is much more of a specialist than fellow southpaw trade candidates Justin Wilson and Brad Hand, having limited same-handed opponents to a putrid .173/.230/.185 batting line. Conversely, right-handed opponents have absolutely clobbered Blevins (.316/.469/.632) through 49 plate appearances. He’s earning $5.5MM i 2017 and has a $7MM club option for the 2018 campaign.
Looking For A Match In A Justin Verlander Trade
In recent seasons, the veteran-laden Tigers have frequently headed into the summer as trade deadline buyers, but with a 45-55 record this year and J.D. Martinez already out the door, 2017 looks like a different story. One star who could be on the move is Justin Verlander, who joins a starting pitching market that also includes Sonny Gray and Yu Darvish. The Tigers have a variety of other players potentially available, including Ian Kinsler, Justin Wilson and Alex Avila, and they’ve reportedly discussed package deals, so if the Tigers trade Verlander, it could be along with one or more of his teammates.
That’s not to say a Verlander trade would be easy. It’s impossible to discuss the righty’s potential market without noting his contract — he’s making $28MM per season through 2019, plus a $22MM vesting option for 2020. That option contains no buyout and only vests if Verlander finishes in the top five in Cy Young voting in 2019, but the $66MM or so remaining on Verlander’s contract is still a significant obstacle. At last check, the Tigers did not appear willing to take on a significant portion of Verlander’s deal, though they reportedly would pay the remainder of his 2017 salary. His full no-trade clause could present another potential problem.
And then there’s Verlander’s performance — he finished second in AL Cy Young balloting just last season but has taken a big step backwards this year, with a 4.50 ERA and 8.7 K/9 over 124 innings, plus a 4.1 BB/9 that’s almost twice as high as it was in 2016. At 34, that’s a serious concern, particularly when considered alongside his hefty contract. That means the Tigers might not get much if they trade him. Also, his star status in Detroit might not ordinarily be an impediment, but it might be in this case, since, as MLBTR’s Steve Adams recently pointed out, fans might react poorly to a Verlander deal for a limited return.
With all that in mind, here are a few potential landing spots for Verlander.
Cubs: Even after acquiring Jose Quintana, the Cubs are known to have interest in starting pitching, and Verlander would give them another veteran arm to help them manage the possible losses of Jake Arrieta and John Lackey to free agency next winter. They’ve reportedly scouted Verlander and have discussed him with the Tigers, and they’re one of only a handful of teams who clearly could afford him. They’re also reportedly interested in acquiring a catcher, so perhaps there could be a deal involving both Verlander and Avila, particularly since Avila makes a mere $2MM and has been productive this season. The intensity of the Cubs’ interest in Verlander is unclear, and as with all teams, his contract will be an obstacle.
Astros: Houston has been connected to Verlander, along with Wilson, although the Detroit Free Press’ Anthony Fenech characterized the Astros’ level of involvement in Verlander trade talks as “minimal.” The team’s recent return to health, with Collin McHugh returning from injury and Dallas Keuchel set to come back this week, might make the Astros more likely to pursue top-end starters rather than innings eaters, since they currently have enough reliable arms to fill out their rotation. Their interest in Verlander, then, might depend on whether they still see him as an ace-type pitcher. Verlander’s contract would of course be a factor as well, although the Astros do appear to have the payroll flexibility to add him, particularly if the Tigers are willing to pay what’s left of his 2017 salary.
Yankees: The Yankees have been connected to a variety of rotation possibilities and could potentially afford Verlander, although their luxury-tax bill is a concern. They haven’t recently been connected to Verlander in particular, though, and based on published reports, seem to have greater interest in Gray. They also have a clear need for another A’s veteran, Yonder Alonso, which might give them further incentive to continue talking with Oakland. Verlander could, however, represent an interesting alternative to Gray whose acquisition likely wouldn’t cost the Yankees top prospects.
Dodgers: L.A. has repeatedly been connected to Darvish, while there haven’t been many indications they’re seriously interested in Verlander. Still, they have an injured ace (Clayton Kershaw), and their seemingly wide-open wallet would give them a big advantage if they decided they had serious interest.
Nationals: The Nats haven’t been strongly connected to Verlander, and FOX Sports’ Ken Rosenthal recently indicated that they aren’t in on Gray or Darvish. Injuries to Stephen Strasburg and Joe Ross have left them with some rotation questions, however, and they generally aren’t shy about adding big-name players. They’ve also been connected to Wilson.
Brewers: Milwaukee has reportedly shown interest in Verlander, along with other rotation options. The Brewers have also been connected to Wilson and Kinsler, again raising the possibility the Tigers could strike some sort of package deal. And the Brewers under owner Mark Attanasio have never been shy about adding big-name pitching as they’ve prepared for past stretch runs, adding CC Sabathia and Zack Greinke in past seasons in which they contended. All that written, it seems especially unlikely that they would consummate a deal for Verlander. His age and salary could potentially pose big problems for a generally budget-conscious organization (although one with few long-term commitments at the moment). And the Brewers’ 2017 run at the NL Central title, while impressive, has if anything been a pleasant surprise from a team that seemed to be rebuilding. They recently fell into second place, behind the Cubs, and their fade might make them less likely to make a big move.
Rockies: Acquiring Verlander would be a break from the Rockies’ M.O., but they’ve shown interest in rotation upgrades and have limited payroll obligations beyond 2017, so Verlander could theoretically be a fit. They have enough interesting young arms to fill out their rotation, but could potentially benefit from a veteran anchor. Of course, it’s not clear that Verlander is the right veteran anchor for them, given his contract, fly-ball tendencies and sketchy 2017 performance thus far. It’s also unclear whether Verlander would accept a deal that would place him in Coors Field, a stadium that could potentially hurt his future earning power.
Diamondbacks: The Diamondbacks have already swung one big trade with the Tigers, and there have at least been whispers about the possibility they could look to improve their rotation. Most current rumors about the Snakes focus on other areas, however, and all five of their current starters have performed capably this year.
Red Sox: Sox president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski is no stranger to headline-grabbing trades, and he was general manager of the Tigers when Detroit drafted Verlander in 2004. With Eduardo Rodriguez‘s recent return to health, though, the Red Sox five healthy starting pitchers who each could potentially pitch well for the remainder of the season, and most rumors about the team since their acquisition of infielder Eduardo Nunez have pertained to relievers, not starters.
Mariners: The M’s have been connected to Gray, and the odds that Jerry Dipoto will find a way to insert them into a significant trade can never fully be discounted. They are, however, below .500 at this point and already have big salaries for Felix Hernandez, Robinson Cano, Kyle Seager and Nelson Cruz on the books for 2018.
Royals: Kansas City has been on the lookout for starting pitching, although the Royals have mostly been connected to lower-tier options like Francisco Liriano, Marco Estrada and Jaime Garcia (plus Trevor Cahill, who they already acquired). It would seem extremely unlikely that they’d take on Verlander’s contract, given their uncertain future as an organization and the fact that their 2017 payroll is already the highest they’ve ever had.
Indians: The back of the Indians’ rotation has struggled, although Danny Salazar‘s recent return to health helps them in that regard, and trading for a pitcher with Verlander’s salary would be out of character for them.
Braves: The Braves look like longshots at best to acquire Verlander at the deadline, since they aren’t contending, and they recently traded a veteran arm in Garcia. It’s also unclear whether Verlander would be willing to accept a trade to a below-.500 team. If the Braves do acquire someone of Verlander’s ilk, that might be more likely to happen in the offseason. They’ve been connected to a variety of controllable veteran starters, however, and have enough money coming off the books next year that they could theoretically afford him.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
Position Player Market Notes: Granderson, Rays, Nats, Cards, Iglesias, Melky, Solarte
Here’s the latest on the market for position players:
- The Brewers have indicated some interest in veteran Mets outfielder Curtis Granderson, according to Ken Rosenthal of MLB Network (Twitter link). At this point, though, the sides don’t seem to have made any real progress toward a deal. The left-handed-hitting Granderson would add a new dimension to the lineup, which features a variety of right-handed outfield options.
- As they continue to work on upgrading their roster, the Rays are willing to take trade offers for infielders Tim Beckham and Brad Miller, per ESPN.com’s Jerry Crasnick (Twitter links). With the recent additions of Adeiny Hechavarria and now Lucas Duda, the Rays are perhaps a bit overstocked in infielders. Still, Tampa Bay is more interested in listening to potential offers than in shopping the pair around, Crasnick notes.
- The Nationals have scouted Cardinals outfielder Tommy Pham along with reliever Trevor Rosenthal, according to Jon Morosi of MLB.com (via Twitter). As ever, it’s hard to read too much into this sort of report, but it does seem notable that the Nats would be putting any thought into an outfielder at this point. While the team has dealt with injuries — highlighted by Adam Eaton but also including Jayson Werth, Michael Taylor, and others — indications of late have been that outfield additions wouldn’t be pursued in earnest.
- In other news on infielders, there’s some belief around the game that the Tigers could find a trade partner for shortstop Jose Iglesias, per ESPN.com’s Buster Olney (Twitter link). That’s a bit surprising to hear, given the lack of demand among contenders, though Iglesias is a controllable player who’d be of possible interest to a variety of organizations even if a run at the postseason this year isn’t likely.
- The White Sox have gotten “a little” interest in left fielder/designated hitter Melky Cabrera, Jon Heyman of Fan Rag tweets, though he also notes that the ChiSox would clearly need to pay down some of the remaining $5.4MM on Cabrera’s $15MM salary. CSN Chicago’s Chuck Garfien tweeted earlier today that GM Rick Hahn is willing to do just that, however, so perhaps a modest market could develop for the veteran switch-hitter’s services. After this morning’s Dan Jennings trade, Cabrera is one of the few plausible trade assets that remaining on a gutted White Sox roster. Struggling pitchers James Shields, Derek Holland, Mike Pelfrey, Miguel Gonzalez and Tyler Clippard all figure to be plenty available as well, though none carries much (if any) trade value.
- Though it’s been more than a month since Padres infielder Yangervis Solarte suited up for a game, Rosenthal tweets not to rule out a trade. Solarte is embarking on a minor league rehab assignment this weekend and has drawn interest from other clubs, per Rosenthal. Solarte, 30, was San Diego’s hottest hitter in mid-June (.337/.427/.589, seven homers in 26 games/110 PAs) before incurring an oblique strain from which he has not yet returned. The switch-hitting Solarte can handle both second base and third base, and may even spend some time at short during his rehab, Dennis Lin of the San Diego Union-Tribune tweets. That versatility at the plate and in the field both looked highly marketable prior to his injury — as did his contract. Solarte is earning just $2.625MM this season with a $4.125MM salary in 2018 plus a pair of club options for 2019 ($5.5MM) and 2020 ($8MM).
- Recent indications are that Mets infielder Asdrubal Cabrera will be dealt, and he’s still drawing interest from at least a trio of rivals, per Mike Puma of the New York Post (via Twitter). The odds that he’ll be targeted perhaps also increased with an injury suffered on Wednesday by Phillies infielder/outfielder Howie Kendrick. As MLB.com’s Todd Zolecki writes, Kendrick did not suffer a fracture when he was hit by a pitch on the hand. But it’s not yet known if he’ll miss time. Given that he has already missed two extended stretches with other health issues, Kendrick will perhaps need to reenter the lineup and show he’s at full speed to factor into the deadline shopping spree. (Even if he doesn’t, he’d be a candidate to move in August.)
Pitching Market Notes: Kintzler, Santana, Astros, Dodgers, Cubs, Verlander, Reed, Lynn
Here’s the latest chatter on the trade market for pitching …
- The Red Sox and Diamondbacks are among the teams with interest in Twins righty Brandon Kintzler, per Jon Morosi of MLB.com (via Twitter). Kintzler, 32, represents an interesting potential addition to the trade market as Minnesota ponders a change in plans. The sinkerballer owns a 2.84 ERA with 27 saves on the year. As regards the interest from Boston, ESPN’s Jerry Crasnick tweets that the Red Sox had looked into Pat Neshek before he was dealt to the Rockies, due in part to their desire to add a “different look” to their setup mix. With the side-armer now off the market, Boston isn’t a lock to move onto other targets such as the Mets‘ Addison Reed or the Marlins‘ AJ Ramos, Crasnick notes.
- While the Astros continue their search for arms, the club has done some “background work” on Twins righty Ervin Santana, per Mike Berardino of the St. Paul Pioneer-Press (Twitter links). Santana’s velocity has wavered a bit, though perhaps that’s not the real issue in assessing his value. The veteran righty has produced a strong 3.37 ERA over 136 1/3 innings, following up on last year’s near-identical 3.38 mark, but he’s managing just 6.9 K/9 against 3.1 BB/9 and has benefited from a .227 BABIP and 82.9% strand rate.
- The Dodgers are also looking at starters, of course, and Morosi hears they are (Twitter links) increasingly confident in landing a big name. Currently, Los Angeles is focused more on Rangers star Yu Darvish than either Sonny Gray of the Athletics or Justin Verlander of the Tigers, he notes. Of course, at this point it’s still unclear whether Darvish will be marketed at all, and it’s not really known how keen the Dodgers’ interest is in the other two starters.
- The Cubs are the most interested team in Verlander, tweets USA Today’s Bob Nightengale, but suggests that the Tigers star’s contract may simply be too great an obstacle to overcome. CBS Chicago’s Bruce Levine hears similarly, tweeting that there’s “no traction” between the Cubs and Tigers at this point, though he notes that talks aren’t completely dead. As Nightengale suggests, Verlander would be easier to move in the offseason when teams have greater payroll flexibility.
- Given the lack of interest they’re receiving in many of their trade assets, the Mets could look to package closer Addison Reed with another piece, reports Newsday’s Marc Carig. Lucas Duda may have been one possibility for such an approach, though he was just dealt alone. Infielder Asdrubal Cabrera, outfielders Jay Bruce and Curtis Granderson, and catcher Rene Rivera are among New York’s other potential chips that could be paired with Reed in trades to various teams, which could allow the Mets to enhance the return they’d receive, relative to what they’d net in separate deals, Carig continues.
- Adam Wainwright‘s recent injury won’t have any bearing on whether the Cardinals decide to trade Lance Lynn, nor will their recently improved play, per MLB Network’s Ken Rosenthal (all links to Twitter). The Cardinals are open to moving Lynn if they’re presented with an offer they find appealing, as they’re not likely to make Lynn a qualifying offer and risk paying him $18.1MM or so in light of the diminished draft-pick compensation for players that reject a qualifying offer. The Cards are trying to balance winning now with staying competitive in the future, per Rosenthal, who notes that they’d like to strengthen their 2017 bullpen. Reading between the lines, perhaps they’d be amenable to moving Lynn for some MLB-ready relief help, though that’s just speculation at this point.
Justin Wilson Trade Rumors: Thursday
Justin Wilson has been among the most talked-about assets on the trade market, and the sheer volume of updates on the expansive market for his services is enough to warrant its own dedicated post with the deadline looming. Here’s the latest on the Tigers southpaw, who currently boasts a 2.75 ERA with 12.6 K/9, 3.7 BB/9 and a 36.1 percent ground-ball rate…
- It seems the list of possible suitors isn’t getting any shorter just yet. To the contrary, the Indians have also asked about Wilson’s price tag, according to ESPN.com’s Jerry Crasnick (via Twitter). Cleveland is down a lefty after losing Boone Logan.
Earlier Updates
- The Yankees have joined the pursuit of Tigers lefty Justin Wilson, reports Anthony Fenech of the Detroit Free Press. It was New York that traded Wilson to the Tigers in the first place (for righties Chad Green and Luis Cessa), and while the Yanks have already beefed up their ‘pen with the additions of David Robertson and Tommy Kahnle, they appear further interested in adding a shutdown lefty. The Tigers, though, are aiming extremely high in talks for Wilson, with Fenech suggesting that they’re seeking an Aroldis Chapman -esque return for Wilson. While the 29-year-old Wilson is earning a bargain $2.7MM salary and can be controlled through 2018 via arbitration, that’s still a sky-high ask. The Cubs sent Gleyber Torres, Billy McKinney, Adam Warren and Rashad Crawford to New York in exchange for Chapman last summer.
- The Astros could be the most focused team on Tigers southpaw Justin Wilson, reports ESPN’s Jerry Crasnick (via Twitter). Wilson has leapfrogged Orioles closer Zach Britton on the Astros’ list of targets, though all indications are that the ask on Wilson is extremely high. Houston is hardly alone in its pursuit of Wilson and has yet to definitively separate itself from the pack, however, per Crasnick (Twitter links). There are at least six teams still in on Wilson, with the Nationals “strongly” in the mix. Lastly, Crasnick tweets that the odds of a package deal sending Wilson and Justin Verlander to a team “are not good” due to the complex nature of such negotiations.
- FanRag’s Jon Heyman writes that the Brewers, Astros and Red Sox were recently considered to be the leaders in the Wilson sweepstakes, though others are in on him as well. Heyman lists the Cubs, Rockies, D-backs, Dodgers and Nationals as other potential landing spots in a trade.
Tigers Exploring Package Trade Scenarios
The Tigers have several players known to be available, and ESPN’s Buster Olney reports (on Twitter) that the team is currently exploring trade scenarios involving multiple players as a means of clearing some salary off the books. That would mesh with a recent report from Olney’s colleague, Jerry Crasnick, in which Crasnick reported that Detroit has tried to attach second baseman Ian Kinsler to Justin Wilson in trade talks with the Brewers. (Not to say that Kinsler is a pure salary dump, of course, as he too carries value to other clubs.)
[Related: Taking Inventory — Detroit Tigers | Detroit Tigers depth chart | Detroit Tigers payroll outlook]
In addition to Wilson and Kinsler, the Tigers are expected to move catcher Alex Avila and are reported to have shopped Justin Verlander around the league. Detroit could also conceivably move right-hander Anibal Sanchez, who has been much improved in six starts since returning from the minors. The team’s enormous commitment to righty Jordan Zimmermann looks largely immovable right now thanks to Zimmermann’s struggles and full no-trade clause, and while Justin Upton has absolutely raked over the past calendar year, he’s owed $88.5MM from 2018-21 and has the right to opt out of his contract at season’s end as well.
Anthony Fenech of the Detroit Free Press adds some more context to the Tigers’ stance on Verlander, reporting that Detroit has shown a willingness to pay off the remainder of Verlander’s $28MM salary in 2017 — a sum of about $10.4MM — but they’re not interested in picking up any of the $56MM he’s owed from 2018-19. That hasn’t been enough to generate any serious talks surrounding Verlander to date.
Michael Fulmer is the most intriguing name to pop up in trade talks this summer, and Joel Sherman of the New York Post reports that it’s been difficult to gauge exactly what the Tigers’ plans are for the reigning Rookie of the Year. Sherman writes that some execs have been told that Fulmer is firmly off limits, while others say the Tigers have briefly floated his name before turning talks to Justin Verlander. Perhaps most interestingly, Sherman writes that one exec said the Tigers pitched a scenario in which Fulmer would be packaged with the remaining money on the contracts of Zimmermann ($80.7MM through 2020) or Upton ($96.7MM through 2021).
MLB.com’s Jon Morosi tweets that the Brewers and Tigers remain engaged in ongoing talks pertaining to Kinsler and Wilson, though he also cautions that no deal is close. Earlier tonight, MLB.com’s Thomas Harding reported that the Rockies are interested in both Avila and Wilson, which would create another package scenario, though not one that would give the Rox much of an opportunity to shed salary, as both are highly affordable. The Cubs have been frequently connected to both Verlander and Avila as well, with Morosi tweeting a couple of hours ago that Chicago has maintained some level of interest in Verlander but is reluctant to pick up his whole contract in a trade (as are the rest of the teams in MLB). Fenech notes in his above-linked column that the Cubs have had scouts at each of Verlander’s past three starts.
Rockies Seeking Catching Upgrades, Bullpen Arms
The Rockies are looking to upgrade behind the dish and are interested in Rangers catcher Jonathan Lucroy, reports T.R. Sullivan of MLB.com. Sullivan’s colleague, Thomas Harding, reports that the Rox also have some interest in Braves backstop Kurt Suzuki and Tigers catcher Alex Avila.
All three of the options listed are set to hit free agency upon completion of the 2017 campaign, and none of the bunch is earning at a substantial rate. Lucroy’s $5.75MM salary is the heftiest of the bunch, while Avila is earning $2MM in 2017 and Suzuki is owed only the balance of a $1.5MM base salary (plus some modest incentives).
The 31-year-old entered the season as one of the consensus top free agents on the 2017-18 market, but he’s seen both his bat and his glove take steps backward in his first full season with Texas. After being acquired just prior to last year’s non-waiver deadline, Lucroy raked at an exceptional .276/.345/.539 pace with 11 homers in 168 plate appearances down the stretch. However, he’s batting just .240/.293/.339 through 294 plate appearances this season and has begun to cede some playing time to Robinson Chirinos.
Lucroy has caught 30 percent of those that have attempted to steal against him, but he’s also seen his once-vaunted framing numbers deteriorate to the point that Baseball Prospectus ranks him as one of the league’s worst pitch framers.
It’s the opposite story for the 30-year-old Avila, who has broken out in a substantial way in 2017. A well-above-average catcher with the Tigers in 2011-12, Avila’s career was mired in a downward spiral before a return to the Motor City sparked a renaissance. He’s hitting .280/.402/.488 with 11 homers through just 256 plate appearances and has slashed his strikeout rate from 37.3 percent in 2016 to a more passable (but still too high) 29.7 percent this year.
While many have questioned Avila’s ability to sustain this pace, there isn’t a player in baseball (min. 250 PAs) that has a higher hard-contact rate than Avila’s 50 percent. His 92 mph average exit velocity is also among the top 10 in the league, trailing only Aaron Judge, Miguel Sano, Khris Davis, Joey Gallo, Manny Machado and Nelson Cruz. He’s sporting a 31 percent caught-stealing rate but, like Lucroy, has received below-average marks in framing this year (albeit to a lesser extent than Lucroy).
Suzuki, meanwhile, is hitting .255/.340/.468 through 163 plate appearances in his first season with Atlanta. While SunTrust Park has a homer-friendly reputation, six of Suzuki’s eight big flies have come on the road this season. He’s caught a much-improved 26 percent of potential base thieves with the Braves and has demonstrated some improved but still shaky framing skills, per B-Pro.
The reason for the Rockies’ interest in catching upgrades isn’t difficult to see. Tony Wolters has shouldered the bulk of the time behind the dish this season, but he’s posted a meager .255/.351/.306 batting line, with much of that OBP boost coming from batting in front of Rockies pitchers. On the whole, Rockies backstops have posted a dismal .234/.313/.310 batting line — an especially unsightly level of output when considering their hitter-friendly home park.
Harding further reports that the Rox have “extensively” scouted Tigers left-hander Justin Wilson, adding names like Brad Brach, Zach Britton and AJ Ramos as other names the Rox have at least kept an eye on.
It’s not hard to connect some dots and expect that the Rox could have interest in a combo deal that would net them both Avila and Wilson from Detroit, though the asking price on that affordable and excellent pairing would figure to be high. Similarly, I’d imagine there’ve at least been internal discussions about the possibility of pairing one of the Baltimore relievers with Orioles catcher Welington Castillo, though his bat has cooled considerably since suffering a groin injury earlier this summer. That last connection is merely my own speculation, but if the Orioles do indeed listen on their relievers, it wouldn’t come as a surprise to see them gauge interest in Castillo as well.
Pitching Market Notes: Gray, Nats, Yankees, Verlander, Royals, Brewers
We checked in already today on one key factor for the pitching market: the availability of Rangers righty Yu Darvish. And we have just provided an overview of the remaining arms that could be available this summer. Here are some more notable pieces of information with a week to go until the trade deadline:
- The Nationals and Athletics are still engaged after completing one significant trade, per MLB.com’s Jon Morosi. Whether A’s righty Sonny Gray could come up between the organizations isn’t yet clear, but there are now indications that the Nats are at least beginning to think about the possibility of pursuing a starter. The organization likely would do just that if it finds cause for significant concern with Stephen Strasburg, who just left his most recent start with forearm tightness. And it is worth bearing in mind that Washington will need another starter for 2018 with Joe Ross expected to miss the entire season after Tommy John surgery. But unless the Nationals find evidence of a larger problem for Strasburg, Chelsea Janes of the Washington Post wrote yesterday, the club will probably keep its sights set on continuing to improve the bullpen. But a mounting list of injuries could perhaps force the organization to weigh alternatives even as it continues to pace the NL East by a hefty margin.
- Youthful outfielders are the Athletics‘ top priority in Gray talks, Morosi notes in the above post and a subsequent tweet. One prospect that has drawn their attention is Yankees youngster Estevan Florial, Morosi says, with MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand noting on Twitter that New York is “not against including him in a trade package.” Of course, several other organizations rumored to have eyes for Gray also seem to have the types of young outfielders that would draw Oakland’s interest.
- While the Cubs addressed their most pressing rotation needs already, they are continuing to watch and discuss Justin Verlander with the Tigers, Morosi further reports. As Ken Rosenthal of MLB Network writes (Facebook link), Chicago seems to have the future payroll space needed to add Verlander without risking luxury tax complications. While it’s still unclear just how motivated the Cubs are on the veteran righty, it seems that a match remains plausible.
- Even after adding Trevor Cahill yesterday, the Royals are continuing to eye the market for rotation upgrades, according to Jon Heyman of Fan Rag (via Twitter). Kansas City could even bump Cahill into the bullpen if a significant enough piece were to be found, Heyman notes. It’s worth noting that K.C. was able to add three arms to its current roster without taking on significant salary obligations; perhaps, then, there’s still a bit of flexibility remaining for the organization to make another upgrade.
- While the Brewers perhaps no longer are a favorite to land Gray, they could still be active on other hurlers. Rosenthal tweets that veteran Blue Jays reliever Joe Smith was of interest to Milwaukee in the offseason and could be pursued at the deadline. Smith has been knocked around a bit in his two most recent outings, which occurred on both ends of a DL stint. But he was carrying a 2.64 ERA prior to that point and is only earning $3MM this year. With 49 strikeouts and just eight walks in Smith’s 32 2/3 innings on the year, there’s obvious appeal; perhaps the Brewers could see an opportunity to achieve value on a solid relief option, though surely some other contenders will feel the same way.