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Central Notes: Indians, Reds, Cards, Cubs, Bucs, Tigers

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Baseball's general managers are expected to address the topic of home plate collisions at their meetings in November, Buster Olney of ESPN reports, and some sources believe a rule change could come quickly. "At this point, I don't know who would argue to keep it, or what their argument would be," a team official speaking with Olney said. Team sources said they expect baseball to adopt a rule that would guarantee the baserunner an avenue to the plate, but disallow him from targeting the catcher — the same regulation that's in place at all levels of the game below the majors. Here's the latest from the AL and NL central divisions as Detroit and Boston battle for the AL pennant:

  • Paul Hoynes of The Plain Dealer ran through queries from Indians fans in a new column, ruling out Bartolo Colon as an option for the Tribe's rotation.
  • Longtime Reds writer Hal McCoy, who continues to keep a blog for the Dayton Daily News, examined where things went wrong between the Reds and Brandon Phillips. The team is reportedly shopping the second baseman, and the Braves may be interested.
  • Tyler Kepner of The New York Times attempted to pin down the reasons behind the Cardinals' sustained run of success, noting the front office's knack for player development.
  • Rick Renteria has become "the clear-cut favorite" among candidates for the Cubs' manager job, Bob Nightengale of USA Today tweets, reporting that support for the Padres bench coach is "staggering."
  • Travis Sawchik of the Pittsburgh Tribune-Review assessed the Pirates' chances of carrying their 2013 success into next season. While the club's young core and farm system are reasons for optimism, several of 2013's key contributors may be lost to free agency in the coming years, and the team could be hampered by its middling revenue streams, Sawchik writes.
  • Tigers GM Dave Dombrowski may look to inject some speed into his club's lineup this offseason, Drew Sharp of the Detroit Free Press reports. 

Free Agent Profile: Joaquin Benoit

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Signed to be a setup man for All-Star closer Jose Valverde, Joaquin Benoit found himself assuming his former teammate's role in 2013 after the Tigers endured significant ninth inning problems early in the season. The 36-year-old didn't miss a beat in his new role, turning in the second best ERA+ of his career (209) and racking up 24 saves. Benoit will head into free agency coming off a season in which he posted a 2.01 ERA with 9.8 K/9 and 3.0 BB/9 in 67 innings.

Strengths/Pros

Like many of today's late-inning specialists, Benoit makes his money by racking up strikeouts. He's fanned 295 batters against just 72 walks over his past 259 2/3 innings at the big league level. Benoit-JoaquinBenoit maybe 36 years old, but his velocity is as strong as ever. His 94.1 mph average fastball trails only Joel Hanrahan, Fernando Rodney, Matt Lindstrom, Joba Chamberlain and Jesse Crain among free agent right-handed relievers. Unlike Hanrahan and Crain, Benoit isn't coming off a serious injury. Unlike Chamberlain, he's enjoyed a dominant season.

In addition to strong velocity, Benoit's swinging-strike rate is the best in among free agent relievers. Opposing batters swing through 13.6 percent of his pitches; his changeup is his best pitch, with hitters whiffing at the pitch 24.7 percent of the time he threw it in 2013 (a mark that best's Rodney's 23.5 percent mark).

Over the past four seasons, the only potential free agents who have appeared in more games than Benoit are Matt Belisle and Chad Qualls. Belisle has a $4.25MM club option, making it more likely that Benoit hits the market as one of the two most durable relief arms since 2010. Despite his dominance, it's highly unlikely that the Tigers make a qualifying offer and risk his salary jumping from $5.5MM to $14MM. He won't be tied to draft pick compensation.

Weaknesses/Cons

Benoit's been durable for the past four seasons, but he was out of baseball entirely in 2009 thanks to surgery on his right rotator cuff. From 2003-09, Benoit had four separate DL stints for shoulder-related ailments and two DL stints for right elbow issues. Neither joint has been an issue for Benoit since 2009, but it's tough to completely look past that type of injury history when looking at a multiyear deal for a 36-year-old reliever.

Benoit's walk rates have been great since returning from that shoulder surgery, but his BB/9 has risen each season since posting a stellar 1.6 BB/9 in 2010. He jumped to 2.5 in 2011, 2.8 in 2012 and 3.0 in 2013.

Benoit posted a 4.38 ERA in September, and he's allowed four runs in 5 2/3 innings of postseason work thus far. He won't have the benefit a strong finish heading into free agency.

Personal

Benoit resides in his hometown of Santiago in the Dominican Republic each offseason. He has a daughter and is active in the Detroit community, participating in campaigns such as Tigers Dreams Come True and the Tigers Autographed Memoribilia Program.

Market

The Tigers deployed Benoit as their closer for much of the season with great success, and his departure means they'll have a void in the ninth inning. Internal candidates Jose Veras and Bruce Rondon could be looked at as cheaper alternatives, but it stands to reason that the Tigers will show interest in re-upping Benoit after three strong years with the club.

Benoit will see serious competition in the form of Joe Nathan, Grant Balfour and Rodney. Like Benoit, all three right-handers are strikeout machines with ninth inning experience that will pitch next season at 36 years of age or older. Unfortunately for Benoit, his ninth inning experience is more limited than that group of peers, and right or wrong, some teams will still pay for saves on the open market. Agent Jamie Appel of ACES can, however, point to the fact that Benoit is younger than Rodney and Nathan and offers better command than Balfour.

Expected Contract

In a recent edition of MLBTR's Free Agent Faceoff series, I compared Benoit and Balfour side-by-side, and more than 69 percent of the 5,600 respondents said they would prefer to sign Balfour. Whether or not that matches the perception among teams remains to be seen.

Benoit was in a better position before it was learned that Nathan is able to void the $9.5MM option on his contract and before Brian Wilson came back strong with the Dodgers. Despite the fact that he has more competition than originally anticipated, however, his dominant performance over the past four seasons should leave him with no problem in securing a multiyear deal.

Tim Dierkes predicted that Nathan, one of Benoit's chief competitors on the open market, will receive a two-year, $26MM pact. Benoit doesn't have near the same track record that Nathan possesses, but he figures to command a two-year deal of his own at a lesser rate, and something in the vicinity of two years and $16MM sounds right for Benoit.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Quick Hits: Cardinals, Lovullo, McCann, Fister

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The Cardinals clinched the 19th NL pennant in franchise history (and fourth in the last 10 seasons) with tonight's 9-0 rout of the Dodgers in Game Six of the NLCS.  Carlos Beltran continued his postseason dominance with a 3-for-4 night while NLCS MVP Michael Wacha threw seven shutout innings of two-hit ball to continue his stunning late-season run.  Here are some notes from around the league…

  • The Cardinals' peerless developmental system has unearthed many late-round draft picks who are currently playing key roles for the NL champions, CBS Sports' Jon Heyman writes, as former St. Louis scouting director (and current Astros GM) Jeff Luhnow describes how the club found some of those unheralded players.  Heyman notes that the Cards' success is a good sign for the Astros, who hope Luhnow can duplicate that farm system in Houston.
  • The Cubs are interested in interviewing Red Sox bench coach Torey Lovullo for their manager position, sources tell Patrick Mooney and Dan Hayes of CSN Chicago.  Lovullo shares some Boston ties with Theo Epstein, as Lovullo managed the Triple-A Pawtucket Red Sox in 2010.  Lovullo has been linked to managerial jobs in the past and was cited as a candidate for the Mariners job earlier today.
  • If Braves catcher Brian McCann receives a $100MM contract in free agency, ESPN's Dan Szymborski (Insider subscription required) projects that such a contract will be an albatross for the signing team.
  • Doug Fister is the best candidate for a multiyear extension from the Tigers this offseason, Drew Sharp of the Detroit Free Press opines.  Sharp suggests that the Tigers should offer Fister a four-year, $40MM deal but I'd argue that such a contract would be very team-friendly.  MLBTR's Matt Swartz projects Fister will earn $6.9MM in his second year of arbitration eligibility this winter, so he could hit the $10MM average annual value threshold through arbitration alone in the 2014-15 offseason.  If Fister keeps pitching as he has since coming to Detroit, it will cost much more to buy out two free agent years.
  • The Dodgers need to make five moves, ESPN's Jim Bowden writes, in order to improve themselves in 2014 and perhaps take the next step into the World Series.
  • Also from Bowden, he lists four of the so-called "immovable" contracts in baseball have at least a somewhat likely possibility of being traded, while also citing five contracts that are indeed virtually impossible to be moved.  ESPN Insider subscriptions are required to read these two Bowden pieces.

Chicago Links: Abreu, Peavy, Martinez, Renteria

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The White Sox made one of the first big strikes of the offseason when they agreed to sign Jose Dariel Abreu to a six-year, $68MM deal.  We've already collected some reaction to the Abreu signing and heard what it could mean for Paul Konerko's future with the Sox, so let's expand our look at the Windy City's baseball news to include the latest on the Cubs…

  • "Depending on what is considered major," Abreu's signing will probably be the only major White Sox free agent move of the offseason, MLB.com's Scott Merkin writes.  The Sox could still make further moves via trades, as Alexei Ramirez and Gordon Beckham have drawn some interest from other teams.
  • Also from Merkin, GM Rick Hahn goes into detail about how the three-team trade from last July between the White Sox, Red Sox and Tigers developed.  Chicago got an important piece for the future in Avisail Garcia while the deal is currently having a big impact on the ALCS, with Jake Peavy starting for Boston and Jose Iglesias starting at shortstop for Detroit.
  • Jim Thome won't be the next White Sox hitting coach, Hahn told reporters (including CSN Chicago's Charlie Roumeliotis) during a conference call today.  Still, Hahn praised Thome's work as a special assistant to the GM and predicted he would become a coach in the future.
  • An NL executive tells Peter Gammons that while the White Sox may have overpaid for Abreu, they have "one of the half-dozen thinnest farm systems in the game and Abreu doesn’t cost them a draft choice."  Gammons also hears mixed reviews of Abreu from a scout and a general manager, though the GM's team still offered Abreu $40MM.
  • Rays bench coach Dave Martinez interviewed with the Cubs today about their managerial opening and now the club will move onto the next step of its hiring process, Mark Gonzales of the Chicago Tribune reports.  Martinez joins Manny Acta, A.J. Hinch and Rick Renteria as contenders for the job, and while Renteria just underwent hip surgery, he is still "considered a very strong candidate."
  • The Cubs would prefer to hire a bilingual manager since they have so many important Latin American prospects, FOX Sports' Jon Paul Morosi reports (Twitter links).  Speaking Spanish isn't "a must" but it could be a tiebreaker if the Cubs are weighing equal candidates.  Hinch is the only one of the four who doesn't speak Spanish, though the Cubs could still hire him to manage and hire Spanish-speaking coaches instead.
  • CSN Chicago's Dave Kaplan spoke to several sources around the game about the four candidates.  Martinez is seen as the clear best choice, Renteria was praised though there were some doubts about him as a first-time manager, Acta's unsuccessful stints managing the Indians and Nationals are strikes against him and Hinch drew scathing reviews.  Kaplan, for his part, thinks the Cubs should hire Brad Ausmus.

AL Central Notes: Ortiz, Peavy, Tigers, Ramirez

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David Ortiz's postseason heroics are a painful reminder of the worst decision in Twins' history, writes Patrick Reusse of the Minneapolis Star Tribune. The Twins cut ties with Ortiz following the 2002 season after his salary was expected to jump to $2MM+. Interest in Ortiz on the free agent market was tepid, and the Red Sox, of course, were able to sign him for just $1.25MM in late January. The rest is history, though the legend of Big Papi continued to grow this October with a dramatic, game-tying grand slam off Joaquin Benoit in the ALCS.

Here's more from the AL Central…

  • Jake Peavy admitted to reporters, including Dan Hayes of CSN Chicago, that he's disappointed that the White Sox weren't able to make the playoffs, as he had hoped when he signed a two-year extension with the team last offseason. However, he's enjoying his time with the Red Sox and relishes the chance to pitch in meaningful games: "…this is what, as a competitor, as a baseball player, playing at the highest level, you dream of being able to do,” Peavy said. “Pitching in games that mean the world to your teammates, to yourself, to your coaching staff and your fan base."
  • Former Tiger and current MLBPA Deputy Executive Director Tony Clark told George Sipple of the Detroit Free Press that Tigers owner Mike Illitch was always committed to winning, even in the years in which the Tigers weren't competitive. Clark added that he's excited to see the current group of Tigers playing well, as he has fond memories of his days with the team. Clark hit .277/.355/.502 with 156 homers for the Tigers from 1995-2001 after Detroit picked him second overall in the draft.
  • Royals catcher Max Ramirez has left the Wasserman Media Group and is now represented by Burton Rocks, tweets Ken Davidoff of the New York Post. Ramirez, a former top prospect, will be a free agent this winter and batted .263/.336/.375 with nine homers in 467 plate appearances at Triple-A Omaha.

AL Central Notes: Tigers, Twins, Yoon, Santana

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Trades don't always work out for both clubs involved and it's even rarer for a three-team deal to benefit all parties.  However, the Jake Peavy deal did just that, according to Red Sox skipper John Farrell.  “One, It’s a great baseball trade because it clearly had specific needs and fit for the three teams involved,” Farrell said, according to Dan Hayes of CSNChicago.com. “Secondly, you have to give up a quality player to get a quality player in return. … It was hard to see Jose Iglesias go, but in return we knew we needed another quality starter, and we got that in Jake."  The swap brought five-tool outfielder Avisail Garcia to the White Sox and the Tigers received Iglesias from Boston.  More out of the AL Central..

  • Korean starting pitcher Suk-Min Yoon is on the Twins' radar, according to Darren Wolfson of 1500 ESPN (via Twitter).  Because Yoon is a free agent, he won't require a posting fee from the team that signs him.  Yoon hired agent Scott Boras to represent him following the 2011 season but he ultimately stayed in Korea despite speculation he would pitch in the big leagues in 2012.  The 27-year-old is set to audition for clubs in the U.S in the near future.
  • It's something of a longshot to happen, but Wolfson (Twitter link) hears that the Twins aren't married to keeping their second-round pick and would sacrifice it to sign a player tied to draft compensation.  Of course, the Twins' first-round pick is protected thanks to finishing in the bottom third of the standings.
  • The Royals should be very careful about the kind of offer they give to free agent Ervin Santana, writes Sam Mellinger of The Kansas City Star.  Historically, large and long-term commitments to free agent pitchers don't pan out and Mellinger suggests that KC sets a limit of $45MM over three years.  

AL Notes: Hunter, Jimenez, Athletics, Yankees

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Torii Hunter of the Tigers says he could continue playing after his contract expires following the 2014 season, Pete Abraham of the Boston Globe tweets. "I can see myself paying beyond 2014," says Hunter. "I'm slim, trim and ready to go." The Tigers signed Hunter to a two-year, $26MM deal last offseason, a year after Hunter told the press he might retire following the 2012 season. Hunter hit .304/.334/.465 as the Tigers' right fielder in 2013. Here's more from around the American League.

  • Pitcher Ubaldo Jimenez will likely void his 2014 option to stay with the Indians, and will instead try the free-agent market, Paul Hoynes of the Plain Dealer writes. Jimenez posted a 3.30 ERA with 9.6 K/9 and 3.9 BB/9 in 182 2/3 innings for Cleveland this year. Jimenez agreed to team options for his 2013 and 2014 seasons when he signed a long-term deal with the Rockies before the 2009 season, but he received the right to void the $8MM 2014 option when Colorado shipped him to the Indians.
  • Unless there are trades, the Athletics roster isn't likely to undergo dramatic changes this offseason, reports John Shea of the San Francisco Chronicle. None of Oakland's key position players are set to depart, and they have plenty of starting pitching, even if Bartolo Colon leaves via free agency.
  • Yankees GM Brian Cashman would prefer to have Alex Rodriguez play in 2014, even if that means the Yankees have to pay his salary, Mark Feinsand of the New York Daily News reports. If Rodriguez's 2014 suspension is upheld, that would take the Yankees off the hook for the $25MM they owe him in 2014. "I think if people think there’s some sort of benefit by losing that talent, I mean, you can’t replace it," Cashman says. "It’s not like, ‘All right, well, Alex is gone.’ If he winds up getting suspended and it’s upheld, how do you replace that? It’s not easy."

Quick Hits: Cubs, Piniella, Orioles, Beltran, Scherzer

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Cubs prospect Albert Almora declared 12 years ago his intention to become a major league star, Colleen Kane of the Chicago Tribune writes. "I'm a quiet kid, just go out and do what I have to do. I like to just shut up and not say anything, let my game do the talking. It has worked so far," Almora says. The Cubs took the outfielder sixth overall in last year's draft, and though Almora missed time this year with injuries, he's six for 10 with five runs and six RBIs in two Arizona Fall League games. On to more Saturday night links…

  • Mark Gonzales of the Chicago Tribune spoke with former Stanford assistant coach Dean Stotz about A.J. Hinch, whom the Cubs are reportedly considering for their open manager position. While Hinch struggled during his previous tenure as manager of the Diamondbacks, Stotz, who coached Hinch in college at Stanford, praised his scouting and player development acumen and predicted that the next team that hires him "will be pleased."
  • The Mariners' purported interest in Lou Piniella for their manager vacancy was overblown, Ryan Divish of The News Tribune reports. A team source tells Divish that there was no "full-court press" to bring Piniella back.
  • Eduardo A. Encina of The Baltimore Sun has more on Manny Machado's upcoming knee surgery, reporting that the Orioles initially hoped to rehab the tear to the third baseman's medial patellofemoral ligament but decided that doing so could result in a higher chance of an injury in the future. “The surgery is universally very successful in returning players back to play, including baseball players," Daryl Osbahr, the director of sports medicine research at MedStar Union Memorial Hospital, commented.
  • The time may be right for Cal Ripken Jr. to accept a managing job outside of Baltimore, Peter Schmuck of The Baltimore Sun writes. Buck Showalter has a long-term deal in place as the Orioles' manager, providing cover from fan backlash for both the team and Ripken if the O's legend decides to manage another club. Ripken has been connected to the Nationals in recent days.
  • Mutual need for outfield production may lead to a bidding war between the Mets and the Phillies for Carlos Beltran, David Murphy of the Philadelphia Daily News says. The Mets have money to spend and will look to improve upon an outfield that posted the worst OPS in the NL, while the Phillies may target Beltran, a switch hitter, for their lefty-heavy lineup, Murphy says.
  • Cardinals President Bill DeWitt III discussed his team's success and the support it receives from St. Louis in an interview with MLB.com
  • The Tigers may have to decide between keeping Max Scherzer for one more year or signing Miguel Cabrera to a new extension, according to Jeff Seidel of the Detroit Free Press. MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz has projected that Scherzer will make $13.6MM this offseason in his final year of arbitration. Recent reports suggest that the Tigers will consider trading Scherzer in the offseason.

ALCS Notes: Martinez, Hunter, Dombrowski, Amherst

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With the ALCS set to get underway today, here are a few notes on the American League finalists for the World Series:

  • Two key current Tigers — Victor Martinez and Torii Hunter — could well have ended up with the Red Sox instead, writes Rob Bradford of WEEI.com. Both players said that family considerations drove their decisions to head to Detroit. For the catcher-turned-DH Martinez, that meant getting an additional year that the BoSox were not willing to offer.
  • An extension for Hunter is not out of the question, tweets Jason Beck of MLB.com, now that Avisail Garcia has been dealt away. Hunter has one year and $14MM left on the pact he inked last off-season with the Tigers. The 38-year-old client of Reynolds Sports Management enjoyed another strong season, though his 114 OPS+ and 2.1 bWAR fell well shy of last year's 129 OPS+ and 5.8 bWAR tally. From my perspective, there would seem to be little reason for urgency in reaching a new deal, as the team may do well to see how Hunter performs next year before committing to him into his forties.
  • Tigers president/CEO/GM Dave Dombrowski built the team aggressively and with the World Series plainly in mind, writes MLB.com's Richard Justice. Though he values prospects, says Justice, Dombrowski also knows how to utilize them as organizational currency.
  • Meanwhile, the Red Sox are led by a GM, Ben Cherington, who is just one of several to have been groomed at nearby Amherst College, write Michael McDonald and Erik Matuszewski of Bloomberg.com. Neal Huntington of the Pirates and Dan Duquette of the Orioles also have roots at Amherst, and the school's role as a breeding ground could be on the rise.

Tigers Could Listen To Offers For Scherzer This Winter

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Fans that are dreaming about a David Price trade after the recent news that he's preparing himself to be moved this offseason can add another name to their wishlists, as Danny Knobler of CBS Sports reports that there's a "very real chance" the Tigers could trade AL Cy Young favorite Max Scherzer this winter.

As Knobler points out, Scherzer is eligble for free agency following the 2014 season, and as a Scott Boras client, he's unlikely to sign a long-term deal with free agency so close at hand. The Tigers are already paying Justin Verlander, Miguel Cabrera and Prince Fielder $20MM or more next season, and they've committed $12-16MM to each of Victor Martinez, Anibal Sanchez and Torii Hunter.

Acquiring Scherzer would likely make him a strict one-year rental, because as Knobler writes, any acquiring team would face the same Boras roadblock as the Tigers. If Scherzer is able to come close to repeating 2013's dominant numbers, his price tag could soar to Zack Greinke-esque levels, so it makes sense for him to hold off.

Scherzer earned just $6.725MM in 2013, but MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projects an increase to a whopping $13.6MM in 2014 following his dominant campaign. The 29-year-old pitched a career-high 214 1/3 innings, turning in a 2.90 ERA with 10.1 K/9, 2.4 BB/9 and a 36.3 percent ground-ball rate. Scherzer's 2.98 SIERA and 2.74 FIP are both among the seven best marks in baseball. Among the six starters with better FIP marks, only Clayton Kershaw has a higher innings total. Among the five with SIERAs that best Scherzer, only Cliff Lee topped him in innings pitched.

My take on the situation: While it's certainly possible that the Tigers will entertain offers, I can't imagine them moving Scherzer without being completely blown away by an offer. The Tigers' free agent signings of Fielder, Sanchez and Martinez, as well as their record-setting extension for Verlander show a clear "win at all costs" strategy. Owner Mike Ilitch has made no secret that he desperately wants a World Series Championship and will spend to make it happen. Perhaps a Scherzer trade would be more likely if the team emerges from the 2013 postseason with a World Series trophy. Even in that instance, however, worsening their chances at a repeat title in 2014 strikes me as a questionable move when they've already invested so much into fielding a winning roster next season.

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