2007 MLB Free Agents: Gary Matthews Jr.
The Rangers would like to retain free agent center fielder Gary Matthews Jr., but competition could be fierce if he hits the market. It’s important to remember that Sarge Jr. will be entering his age 32 season in 2007. Perhaps his athleticism will help him age better.
While Matthews’s .372 OBP is a career high, you’ll notice that it’s entirely batting average driven. He hasn’t improved his walk rate at all this season. The improvement in batting average is tied to more frequent contact – he’s up to 84% in that department. He’s also got a career high SLG. The increase can be attributed to doubles and triples, as Matthews’s flyball percentage and home runs per flyball have not changed. It stands to reason that he’ll regress to something near .270/.330/.440 in 2007.
Matthews has been abandoned by the Padres (twice), Cubs, Pirates, Orioles (twice), Braves, and Mets. He’s dealt with all kinds of injuries in the past few years: ribcage strain, hamstring strain, calf strain, sliced thumb from slicing a bagel, and wrist tendinitis.
Despite all this, I’m not down on Matthews as a free agent signing. The average center fielder hits about .270/.335/.425 and plays, well, average defense. Matthews should be able to hit a little better than that and play plus defense. Sure, he’ll decline from his career season. But CFs like Matthews don’t grow on trees. Would you rather have the defense of Dave Roberts out there?
Lately the possibility has been raised of the Mariners signing Matthews. This would be an odd signing, given the Mariners’ decent outfield arrangement and dire need for starting pitching.
Should the Rangers fail to retain Matthews, both Chicago teams, the Astros, Cardinals, and Rockies could all be interested. I’d be impressed if any team could get him for fewer than three years. He made $2.4MM this year, but could command $7-8MM annually on the open market.
2007 Houston Astros
The Astros are due for the next Team Outlook.
Tim Purpura’s contract obligations:
C – Brad Ausmus – $3.5MM
C – Eric Munson – $0.35MM
1B – Lance Berkman – $14.5MM
2B – Chris Burke – $0.3625MM
SS – Adam Everett – $1.9MM
3B – Morgan Ensberg – $3.8MM
1B/3B – Mike Lamb – $1.7MM
IF – Eric Bruntlett – $0.365MM
LF – Luke Scott – $0.327MM
CF – Willy Taveras – $0.4MM
RF – Jason Lane – $0.45MM
OF – Orlando Palmeiro – $0.95MM
SP – Roy Oswalt – $13MM
SP – Jason Hirsh – $0.327MM
SP – Wandy Rodriguez – $0.327MM
SP – Matt Albers – $0.327MM
SP – Taylor Buchholz – $0.327MM
SP – Chris Sampson – $0.327MM
SP – Ezequiel Astacio – $0.327MM
SP – Troy Patton – $0.327MM
RP – Brad Lidge – $3.975MM
RP – Trever Miller – $1.3MM
RP – Dan Wheeler – $0.93MM
RP – Chad Qualls – $0.376MM
RP – Fernando Nieve – $0.327MM
RP – Dave Borkowski – $0.33MM
Injured:
SP – Brandon Backe – $0.4425MM
1B – Jeff Bagwell – $7MM buyout
I have this payroll at approximately $60MM, maybe a little more if raises are large. The Astros entered ’06 with a $92MM payroll. So where’s the extra money going to go?
At second base, it’s getting really hard to justify another year of Craig Biggio. Objectively, he shouldn’t be around unless he wants to take $1MM to play a utility role. Burke will be 27 next year. He showed progress this season and would be a nice low-cost solution in 2007.
Luke Scott‘s earned a chance to begin 2007 as the everyday left fielder, given his .350/.436/.650 line in 203 ABs. He turned 28 this year and hit .299/.400/.541 in 87 Triple A games. Maybe he’s a late bloomer.
It’s impossible to recommend Taveras as the starting CF, given his hitting. The Astros should probably pursue Jim Edmonds, Gary Matthews Jr., or Dave Roberts. The likely need for a CF is one way the Astros resemble their division rivals the Cubs this offseason.
It’s also tough to see Lane as the starting RF given the kind of year he had. I definitely didn’t expect this given his decent 2005. He still has a chance to put up a few league average seasons, but it’d be a gamble. The Astros should set their sights on Jose Guillen to man the position. The outfield will be a huge challenge for Purpura this winter.
Challenge #2, which also resembles the Cubs, is the lack of starting pitching. Like Zambrano/Hill, the Astros have Oswalt/Hirsh as a pretty good start. But the rest of the starters in that list either aren’t ready or aren’t good. They’ll need to sign two starters, and Woody Williams might be one of them. Maybe Andy Pettitte comes back at a reasonable price; it’s up in the air as far as I know. And the Rocket? Public perception seems to be that he’d play in Boston if he plays at all.
I could list the usual suspects among free agent starting pitchers, but you know all the names. The Astros probably won’t get Matsuzaka or Zito. Jason Schmidt, a long shot but not a bad idea. Maybe expect something more of the Wolf/Meche/Padilla speed. Which is fine; you can’t throw Wandy Rodriguez out there for 24 starts again and expect to win.
Trade rumors: Carl Crawford has been mentioned, and he’d be a nice jolt to the outfield. Of course, the Astros aren’t oozing with top shelf near-ready pitching talent to part with. Luis Gonzalez could join the club assuming Scott could man right field. But Gonzo isn’t a difference maker. Perhaps Purpura will re-engage the Tejada talks, although Brad Lidge‘s stock has fallen.
2007 MLB Free Agents: Woody Williams
Last year, one of the "in the bag" free agent signings was Frank Thomas to the Athletics. It had been long-rumored, and both sides wanted to make it happen. This year, Woody Williams and the Astros may be a similar match.
Said John P. Lopez of the Houston Chronicle on August 31st:
"And that front-line starting pitcher the Astros will try to land come the winter? He’s out there, watching. His name could well be Woody Williams, the Padres starter and long-rumored Astros acquisition who’s apparently keen on making it happen this time."
Williams is thought to be intent on becoming an Astro because he is a Houston native. If Williams is truly looked at as a front-line guy in this winter’s market, perhaps he won’t be the fourth starter for my All-Bargain Free Agent rotation after all. Woody’s making about $5MM this year, and could be in line for a deal similar to the one Kenny Rogers received before this season. Rogers inked a two-year, $16MM contract with the Tigers.
Baseball Prospectus projects Williams to be worth about $5.6MM from 2007-08, but you have to overpay for starting pitching.
Oswalt Cashes In
Given the possibility of Roy Oswalt leaving the Astros after the 2007 season, the club decided to lock him up for a very long time. Oswalt’s five-year, $73MM deal averages $14.6MM annually with a complete no-trade clause.
It’s backloaded, of course, with salaries of $15MM in 2010 and $16MM in 2011. The concern with Oswalt is his size and workload. Last year he threw 269 innings, and it was 256 in ’04. At least this year Houston should miss the playoffs and give him a bit of a break.
Baseball Prospectus says Oswalt should be worth about $11.3MM in ’07, and then it’s a downward spiral to $6MM in 2010. This deal will likely prove to be quite the financial burden near the end; the Astros apparently did not learn their lesson after the Jeff Bagwell contract.
Then again, Oswalt could certainly defy the projections. The key to survival for him into his late 20s and early 30s will be the continued transition away from power pitching. He’s got a career low strikeout rate this year, but you wouldn’t know it from his 3.25 ERA and 1.21 WHIP.
Will Roger Clemens Pitch In 2007?
Deja vu all over again: it looks like we’re in for another winter of Roger Clemens rumors. With a 2.50 ERA in 80 innings, his delayed debut has been a smashing success. The only problem is that the Astros have a nearly unsurmountable deficit in the playoff standings.
As Buster Olney speculates in his blog today, the Red Sox will probably be willing to pay the Rocket $4MM a month to get them to the World Series in 2007. Olney figures the chances of this happening are better than 50%. Would the Yankees counter with $5MM a month and a game-used Luis Sojo baseball bat? Perhaps.
Cardinals Acquire Preston Wilson
In a minor move this morning, the Cardinals acquired outfielder Preston Wilson. The 32 year-old had been released by the Astros.
Wilson is expected to step in for Chris Duncan if the clock strikes midnight or for Jim Edmonds if this post-concussion thing persists. Wilson at least has an OK ability to hit southpaws most years, whereas Edmonds has been slipping in ’06. Still, Edmonds mashed them in ’05 and this year’s sample is only 95 at-bats.
The Astros released Wilson after his SLG plummeted to just .405 this season. He slugged .443 in Washington last year and PECOTA projected .463 for ’06. I know I thought he’d hit 30 home runs playing half his games in Minute Maid.
More On Andruw Jones and Waivers
A couple of columns shed light on the Andruw Jones situation recently. As you know, Jones was placed on waivers, claimed, and pulled back. Andruw called the whole affair "rude."
"The Braves routinely put their entire roster on waivers in August, trying to mask their intentions with the two or three players they might want to trade.
Thus, Jones likely has been on waivers every year of his 10-year career. And even though he reportedly was claimed by an undisclosed club, the Braves still couldn’t have traded him without his permission, according to major-league sources."
And then there’s the matter of which team was awarded the claim. Speculation that it was an NL Central team has proven true, according to Will Carroll. Carroll tells us the Astros were awarded the claim. Well-regarded pitching prospect Troy Patton is not on Houston’s 40-man roster, so the Astros wouldn’t have had to pass him through waivers in a deal.
ESPN: Lidge, Ensberg Deals Dead
Buster Olney informs us that Brad Lidge will not be dealt, and Jayson Stark has indicated that a possible Padres trade for Morgan Ensberg is off. Plan B for the Pads looks like Aaron Boone…ugh.
Justice: McLane Orders Lidge Trade
According to Richard Justice on his SportsJustice blog:
"I’m told Drayton McLane ordered Purpura to trade Brad Lidge. I got this information from an official with another team. I would expect the Astros to deny it."
Justice also mentions that Roger Clemens is pushing Drayton McLane for help, who has in turn orderd GM Tim Purpura to make something happen.
Mets closer Billy Wagner is campaigning for Omar Minaya to bring Lidge in so Wagner can fix him.
Also, I’m told Justice was recently on 610 AM in Houston. He mentioned that if the Astros trade Lidge for Hank Blalock straight up, the subsequent move would be to swap Morgan Ensberg and Adam Everett for Scott Linebrink and Khalil Greene.
Red Sox Trade Rumors
It’s tough to get anything out of Boston these days; Theo Epstein has plugged all of his leaks. Let’s see what we can piece together though.
According to Sean McAdams of The Providence Journal:
"Friends of the Rocket insist he’s sorry that he chose the Astros over the Red Sox." McAdams mentions that Clemens would love a trade to Boston if it could be done without infuriating the Houston fanbase. Also, a source of mine tells me that the Mets have inquired about Clemens.
Then there’s the possible three-way trade with the Rockies and Padres. The Padres would get Mike Lowell, the Red Sox would get Ryan Shealy and a starter, and who knows what the Rockies would get.
Don’t get that rumor confused with the other three-team scenario from Gordon Edes of the Boston Globe. In that case, the Red Sox get Julio Lugo and Scott Linebrink, the Padres get Mike Lowell, and the D-Rays get prospects.
Plus, Jayson Stark mentioned last night that the Red Sox are "making a late run at Alfonso Soriano." He doesn’t have much more than that, but it can’t be dismissed. Stark has also connected Boston to Jason Schmidt and Brad Lidge.