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Front Office Originals

The Rays’ Emerging Core

By Steve Adams | April 18, 2025 at 11:59pm CDT

I was just 15-20 minutes into writing this when the Rays placed Richie Palacios back on the injured list and selected the contract of prospect Chandler Simpson, widely regarded as the fastest player in the sport. Simpson swiped 104 bags in 110 minor league games last year. He was caught only 13 times. He's 8-for-11 in steals to begin the current season. He's struck out in fewer than 10% of his professional plate appearances. Simpson has virtually no power, but he's an oddity in today's game and a throwback to the leadoff hitters of yesteryear. If he can carry those wheels and that preternatural contact ability over to the majors, he's going to garner a lot of national attention, simply because he's a departure from the MLB archetype in an era of baseball that's increasingly focused on power, elevating the ball, exit velocity, etc.

Maybe Simpson will be a star for the Rays. Maybe he'll follow the Billy Hamilton career path. We can't know yet. He hasn't played a single big league game. But even without the promotion of a notable prospect, the Rays' future was already starting to look quite bright.

We're early in the 2025 season, of course, so lots of things can be chalked up to small sample sizes. And the Rays do have plenty of early small-sample success stories. It hasn't yet translated into winning ball, evidenced by their 8-11 record, but Tampa Bay has a +11 run differential and has spent a good portion (in some cases all) of the season playing without some key stars. Shane McClanahan is wrapping up his rehab from Tommy John surgery. Josh Lowe has been out almost all year with a strained oblique. Ha-Seong Kim was signed knowing that he'd be out into at least May following shoulder surgery. The version of the Rays that president of baseball operations Erik Neander and manager Kevin Cash trot out in June and July should be expected to look quite a bit different than the April version.

There are still some intriguing names on the roster right now, however, many of whom are flying too far under the radar. It's easy to get too caught up in early-season data, as it tends to balance out over a larger sample. But with many of the Rays' young and/or returning contributors, the breakout campaigns they're teasing date back to the second half of the 2024 season. Tampa Bay operated as a seller last summer, trading away veterans Zach Eflin, Jason Adam, Isaac Paredes, Randy Arozarena, Aaron Civale and Phil Maton, among others.

That opened the door for a wave of younger players to begin receiving more playing time, and if you trace things back to that point, some of these eye-opening March/April stats start to look a little more legitimate. It's still only about 40% of a season -- less than that in some cases -- but as is always the case with a Rays team that ebbs and flows through periods of contending and rebuilding on the fly, there are some very intriguing components of a core taking shape.

Let's run through a few particular standouts.

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Front Office Subscriber Chat Transcript

By Anthony Franco | April 18, 2025 at 12:44pm CDT

MLBTR’s Anthony Franco held a live chat today, exclusively for Front Office subscribers!

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MLB Mailbag: Arenado, Rangers, Red Sox, Angels, Giants

By Tim Dierkes | April 16, 2025 at 11:59pm CDT

Today's mailbag gets into Nolan Arenado's future with the Cardinals, offensive struggles for the Rangers and Red Sox, hot starts for the Angels and Giants, and much more.

Sam asks:

Arenado is off to a pretty good start with his surface level stats but his batted ball profile is still pretty bad. Barring an injury to a third baseman on a contender, is he going to be playing for the Cardinals for the next 3 years?

Arenado, 34 today, has an excellent 136 wRC+ through 74 plate appearances.  His Statcast numbers have always been middling since he was traded to St. Louis four years ago.  As you know, the Cardinals tried to move Arenado during the offseason, both to save money and open up playing time for younger players.  Arenado wasn't willing to say yes when asked to approve a trade to the Astros in December, and no deal materialized with the four other teams on the third baseman's list.

In February, Katie Woo of The Athletic reported that the Cardinals "had conversations with at least nine organizations" about Arenado during the offseason.  Woo said the other four teams on Arenado's list besides the Astros were the Dodgers, Red Sox, Padres, and Yankees.  The rigidity of Arenado's list is confusing.  He said, "I don’t see myself changing that list ever. I have a family now. … To be willing to pick up my family and move them, it has to be something that’s worth it."  Arenado is clearly not bound entirely by geography, having chosen teams on both the East and West coast.  But let's look at some playoff odds from when the season opened:

  • Astros: 53.5%
  • Dodgers: 97.6%
  • Red Sox: 56.2%
  • Padres: 35.1%
  • Yankees: 62.3%
  • Cardinals: 23.2%
  • Tigers: 46.6%
  • Royals: 41.8%
  • Angels: 10.5%

Is it fair to say that for Arenado to leave the comfort of St. Louis he needs what he considers a strong chance at winning the World Series, but he might accept a lesser chance for a team near where he grew up, such as the Padres?  What makes this tricky is that Arenado seems to have developed his own playoff odds.  Playoff odds are not reliable in the best case, and Arenado is probably worse at this than FanGraphs.

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Front Office Originals

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Luis Robert’s Slow Start

By Anthony Franco | April 16, 2025 at 11:57pm CDT

April tends to be relatively quiet on the transaction front. The early part of the month saw a handful of extensions as talks that had begun in Spring Training carried into the regular season. There probably won't be much more significant hot stove activity for the next couple months. That's largely because all but three teams -- the White Sox, Marlins and Rockies -- went into the season with some measure of hope about competing. The trio of clearly noncompetitive clubs had already moved most of their realistic trade candidates who'd bring back prospect talent.

Luis Robert Jr. is an exception. The White Sox held onto their former All-Star center fielder over the offseason. Robert was coming off the worst season of his career. He lost nearly two months early in the season with a hip flexor strain and was unproductive when healthy. He hit .224/.278/.379 with 14 homers in 100 games. Robert looked nothing like the player who'd finished 12th in AL MVP balloting one year earlier.

It made for a difficult evaluation. Robert has shown star upside -- not only in the aforementioned 2023 campaign but in an injury-shortened '21 season when he hit .338/.378/.567 over 68 games. Last year's White Sox were en route to the worst season in the modern era. Maybe Robert's .216/.253/.302 showing in the second half reflected some amount of mental fatigue. At 27 years old, he should remain in his prime.

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Front Office Subscriber Chat Transcript

By Steve Adams | April 14, 2025 at 1:50pm CDT

MLBTR's Steve Adams hosted a chat today at 2pm CT, exclusively for Trade Rumors Front Office subscribers.

 

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A Tough Call In Next Winter’s Rotation Class

By Anthony Franco | April 11, 2025 at 11:59pm CDT

MLBTR will release our first Power Rankings of the upcoming free agent class in the next few days. Ordering starting pitchers is often the most challenging part of that process. Next winter's class has a few of those tricky calls -- perhaps none closer than Zac Gallen versus Michael King.

Gallen certainly has the longer track record as an above-average starting pitcher. The righty has started all 146 of his major league appearances. He has been consistently effective, working to a 4.30 ERA or better in all six years (not including this year's 5.28 mark over three starts). Gallen has only once allowed four earned runs per nine in a season. He has punched out at least a quarter of opposing hitters in each year. The result is a 3.33 earned run average with a near-27% strikeout rate in more than 800 career innings.

King has spent the majority of his big league career working out of the bullpen. The Yankees kept him in long relief for most of his first four seasons. It wasn't until the waning weeks of the 2023 season that they gave him a rotation spot, largely because of injuries elsewhere on the pitching staff. King shined in nine starts, was the centerpiece of San Diego's return for Juan Soto, and had a fantastic first full season as a starter.

Over 173 2/3 frames, he turned in a 2.95 ERA while striking out 27.7% of opposing hitters. He showed no signs of slowing down as he pushed well beyond his previous career-high workload. King managed a 2.15 ERA across 62 2/3 innings after the All-Star Break. He finished seventh in NL Cy Young balloting.

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Front Office Subscriber Chat Transcript

By Steve Adams | April 11, 2025 at 12:24pm CDT

MLBTR's Steve Adams hosted a chat today at 2pm CT, exclusively for Trade Rumors Front Office subscribers.

 

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MLB Mailbag: PTBNL, Brewers, Mariners, Romano, Pages, Baty

By Tim Dierkes | April 9, 2025 at 11:59pm CDT

This week's mailbag gets into PTBNL trades, the Brewers' recent trade history, the Mariners' inactivity, and questions about players such as Jordan Romano, Andy Pages, and Brett Baty.

Scott asks:

When a trade happens that includes a Player to be named later or cash considerations, like between the Red Sox and Brewers, how is it determined which goes - a player or cash? Seems like that would have to be predetermined to ease the negotiations, but the implication in the title implies it's a decision to be made later?

I posed Scott's question to an team executive friend, and he kindly gave a great in-depth reply.  Here it is:

"There are two PTBNL / Cash constructs that are most common. The first is where one of the clubs involved in the trade gets to choose one or more players from an agreed upon list. The agreed upon list is determined at the time of the initial trade. The club receiving the PTBNL has the right to instead receive “alternative cash considerations” that cannot exceed $100k. The option to receive cash comes into play only if the club with the right to receive the PTBNL decides they don’t want any of the players within the previously agreed upon grouping. This outcome could occur if one or more of those players suffers an injury or other plight whereby they are no longer of interest to the club holding the right to acquire them. By way of example, if Team A has the right to pick either Player X or Player Y as the PTBNL, but both players have suffered significant injuries since the time the trade was agreed upon, then Team A might rather take the cash rather than an injured player.

The second primary construct where you see a PTBNL or Cash involved in a trade occurs if the trade is really just for cash, but the team set to receive the cash wants to “dress it up” a little bit. This situation could occur if the team is trading away a notable player and needs to make it look like there’s a more significant return than simply money coming back their way. In these situations, the two clubs involved in the trade can agree to phrase the trade as a PTBNL or Cash despite both clubs agreeing that the return will be cash only.

A PTBNL is not always a low-level player. The only restriction is that a PTBNL cannot be someone who has appeared on an active Major League roster between the time the trade was agreed to and the time he is sent to his new club."

Zack asks:

How long of a leash should the Phillies have with Jordan Romano? He has lost velocity on his fastball and slider and he looks shaky when on the mound. Maybe it's a mechanics issue he can work through? He looks like he's searching for his form on the mound, I hope he can figure it out as we need him!

The tough thing is that Romano arguably hasn't been an effective reliever since June of 2023.  Rob Thomson hasn't used Romano in the club's highest-leverage situations thus far, but he still was Dave Dombrowski's main offseason bullpen addition.

Romano's elbow inflammation surfaced in March 2024.  He debuted in mid-April last year but was done after 15 appearances once the injury resurfaced.  He wound up having arthroscopic elbow surgery in early July.  The Blue Jays, who knew Romano best, didn't want him back at what would've likely been his same $7.75MM salary.  Around the Winter Meetings, Dombrowski gave Romano about $750K more than that.

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Front Office Originals

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Front Office Subscriber Chat Transcript

By Anthony Franco | April 7, 2025 at 12:14pm CDT

MLBTR’s Anthony Franco held a live chat today, exclusively for Front Office subscribers.

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By Anthony Franco | April 4, 2025 at 12:11pm CDT

MLBTR’s Anthony Franco held a live chat today, exclusively for Trade Rumors Front Office subscribers!

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