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Royals Sign First-Rounder Brady Singer

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The Royals announced today that they have signed first round pick Brady Singer, as Jonathan Mayo of MLB.com first reported on Twitter. Kansas City will spend $4.25MM, well over the $3,349,300 slot value for the 18th overall selection, to land Singer.

Singer will join teammate Jackson Kowar (who reportedly agreed to terms yesterday) in going from a powerhouse University of Florida staff into the K.C. system. The pair  drew ample attention in the run-up to the draft. Both pitchers ended up being among the first six college hurlers to leave the board. (UVA product Daniel Lynch went to the Royals one pick after Kowar, at #34.)

Most draft pundits agreed that Singer was, at a minimum, among the twenty or so best prospects. But there was certainly a range of opinion as to just how rosy his future outlook is. MLB.com rated him second only to unquestioned top prospect Casey Mize among all draft-eligible players. ESPN.com’s Keith Law, meanwhile, had Singer at 21st on his board.

The optimists argue that Singer has just about everything you could want in a pitching prospect, with a good frame and track record of durability combined with good command, oft-lauded competitiveness, and a projection of three quality pitches. On the other side, Law questions whether Singer will shake out in the rotation at the game’s highest level, citing concern with his delivery and ability to maintain his best stuff.

The Royals obviously believe in Singer, who is the most visible member of the team’s draft class — the composition of which reflects a clear strategy to add advanced amateur arms to the system. All of the players the Royals selected in the first ten rounds of the draft are now under contract, as fourth-rounder Eric Cole has also agreed to terms.

Royals Agree To Terms With 33rd Overall Pick Jackson Kowar

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Royals compensation choice Jackson Kowar has reportedly agreed to a $2,147,500 bonus. Rustin Dodd of The Athletic first tweeted the news, with MLB.com’s Jeffrey Flanagan and Jim Callis (Twitter links) reporting the value.

Though he was taken with the 33rd overall selection, Kowar ranked higher on many analysts’ boards. Indeed, the MLB.com team tabbed him as the 15th-best prospect available in the draft, with Baseball America and ESPN’s Keith Law also applying top-twenty grades.

While he is already an accomplished college hurler who comfortably sits in the mid-nineties with his fastball, the University of Florida product is said still to possess some upside. If he can fill out his frame and develop a breaking ball to match his heater and change, Singer could one day turn into a high-quality rotation piece in Kansas City.

Kowar’s bonus sits just over the slot value of $2,118,700. The signing leaves the K.C. organization with two remaining unsigned players from the first ten rounds: fourth-rounder Eric Cole, who just finished up playing in the College World Series with Arkansas, and Kowar’s rotation mate Brady Singer.

Amateur Draft Signings: 6/30/18

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Here are today’s most notable signings from the first few rounds of the draft.  Scouting reports and pre-draft rankings can be found courtesy of MLB.com, Fangraphs, Baseball America and ESPN’s Keith Law (the latter two available to subscribers only)…

  • The Orioles have agreed to a deal with the 37th overall pick, Oregon State shortstop Cadyn Grenier, Steve Melewski of MASNsports.com tweets. Financial details aren’t yet available, but the 37th choice comes with a slot value of $1,923,500. The 21-year-old Grenier was one of the heroes for an OSU team that just knocked off Arkansas to win the College World Series. Grenier hit an impressive .319/.408/.462 in 273 at-bats this season, though Law was the only one of the abovementioned prospect evaluators to place him in the top 50 entering this year’s draft (No. 46). Law noted then that Grenier could end up as a starting shortstop or a quality utility infielder in the majors.

Earlier updates:

  • The Royals have signed 12th-round pick Rylan Kaufman for a hefty $722.5K bonus, MLB.com’s Jeffrey Flanagan reports (Twitter links).  Kaufman is an 18-year-old high school left-hander from Texas, and he stands 6’4″ and owns a fastball in the 92-93mph range.  Since Kaufman was picked beyond the 10th round, $597.5K of his bonus will be counted against Kansas City’s draft bonus pool.  While the Royals entered this year’s draft with the most pool space ($12,781,900) of any team, they already have over $7.6MM of those funds spent (hat tip to Clint Scoles of Baseball Prospectus) and still need to sign their three of their top seven picks.  Two of the unsigned players are Kansas City’s top two selections — 18th overall pick Brady Singer and 33rd overall pick Jackson Kowar.

Rosenthal’s Latest: Moustakas, Merrifield, Duffy, Fulmer, Drury

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The Cardinals have “renewed interest” in Royals third baseman Mike Moustakas, The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal reports in his latest notes column (subscription required).  It isn’t clear how seriously interested St. Louis is, however, and Rosenthal notes that adding Moustakas would lead to a crowded infield situation.  Matt Carpenter would have to be moved to either second base or first base, displacing either the light-hitting but defensively brilliant Kolten Wong, or the hard-hitting Jose Martinez and his sub-par first base glove.  One option could be to flip Martinez for some immediate help in another area, Rosenthal suggests, listing the Twins as a potential suitor for Martinez — Minnesota, of course, is a fringe contender at best right now, but Martinez would be a long-term piece at first base and DH.  On the other hand, Martinez has been perhaps the Cardinals’ best hitter this season and he is controllable through the 2022 season.  This is just one of many scenarios that could play out involving these players, of course, as the Cards (like every front office in the game) is weighing dozens of potential scenarios as we approach the trade deadline.  St. Louis still seems to be in the planning stages, as Rosenthal writes that the Cards “have yet to engage seriously on any one player.”

Here are some more hot stove items from Rosenthal’s column…

  • The Brewers were interested in Royals second baseman/outfielder Whit Merrifield this past offseason and are once again inquiring on his services.  The late-blooming Merrifield has continued to establish himself as a solid everyday player this season, batting .284/.358/.401 over 339 PA, plus 16 steals in 20 chances.  Second base has been a problem spot for Milwaukee, and while the Brewers recently acquired Brad Miller as infield depth, Merrifield would represent a more solid upgrade at the keystone.  Though the Brewers could also need rotation help, Rosenthal reports that they haven’t discussed Danny Duffy as part of their talks with Kansas City.
  • Tigers right-hander Michael Fulmer is drawing a lot of interest from not just contenders like the Phillies, Dodgers and Yankees, but also from rebuilding teams like the Padres.  Clearly Fulmer would be a fit for a lot of teams considering both his ability and his years of control; he isn’t arbitration-eligible until this winter, and he has four years of arbitration coming as a Super Two player.  Fancred Sports’ Jon Heyman wrote earlier this week that it could be unlikely that Fulmer is actually dealt, as Detroit has naturally put a big price tag on the righty in trade talks.  San Diego is deep in prospects, however, so the Friars could be one of the few teams who wouldn’t immediately balk at the Tigers’ demands.
  • Brandon Drury’s return to the Yankees came with some service time implications, as Rosenthal notes that New York could have gained an extra year of control over the utilityman by keeping him in the minors until Sunday.  It’s possible Drury could still be demoted again at some point this season, and if so, he wouldn’t qualify for free agency until after the 2022 season.  This could potentially make Drury more valuable to other teams in trade talks, as the Yankees are deep in long-term infield options and might see Drury as expendable.

Phillies, Royals Have Discussed Mike Moustakas

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The Phillies and Royals have held at least preliminary trade talks involving Kansas City third baseman Mike Moustakas, according to Jim Salisbury of NBC Sports Philadelphia. The level of interest is not entirely apparent and there’s no indication at this point that the sides are nearing an agreement. But the K.C. scouting department is said to be taking a look at the Phillies system to identify targets.

With a $5.5MM salary this year and $1MM buyout on a 2019 mutual option, Moustakas is an affordable target. Of course, that’s probably not the chief concern for the Phils, who have been much more willing to burn money than prospect capital of late. In recent years, the club has placed numerous hefty salaries onto its payroll, but in most cases hasn’t packaged significant young talent or taken on long-term financial commitments.

The Philadelphia organization unquestionably has the assets to get Moustakas; what’s not yet clear is whether he’s really the player they want. Firmly in the picture in the National League East, the Phillies are said to be a possible pursuer of top summer trade candidate Manny Machado — a player they may also covet in free agency at season’s end. The club has also been connected to Rangers third bagger Adrian Beltre.

Moustakas, 29, has trailed off at the plate of late after surging to open the year. Still, his .255/.310/.467 slash and 15 home runs through 332 plate appearances fall right in line with his composite work from the prior three campaigns. He has perhaps even been a bit unfortunate; while his .255 BABIP is in line with his unusually low career rate, Moustakas is credited by Statcast with a .383 xwOBA that greatly exceeds his .325 wOBA.

There’s not much mystery at this point as to Moustakas’s profile. He’s got excellent power, middling on-base ability, and not-insignificant platoon splits (which have widened this year). Defensively, he has graded out as a positive this year, but he has mostly played within range of average over his career.

It’ll be interesting to see how the deadline plays out for the Phillies. There are lots of possibilities, both at the hot corner and elsewhere on the roster. As Salisbury indicates, the team may well not show much interest in parting with top prospects to make deals. But few, if any, clubs in baseball can match the Phillies in near and long-term financial flexibility, opening numerous creative avenues to improve a roster that has already looked solid through the season’s halfway point.

Royals Designate Ryan Goins For Assignment

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The Royals have designated infielder Ryan Goins for assignment in order to open a spot on the roster for Jorge Bonifacio, who has completed serving his 80-game PED suspension, the team told reporters Thursday (Twitter link via the Kansas City Star’s Maria Torres). Royals reporters indicated yesterday that Goins would be the likely roster casualty, with Rustin Dodd of The Athletic tweeting at the time that Goins took some time after yesterday’s game to shake hands with all of his teammates and say his goodbyes.

Goins, 30, landed with the Royals on a minor league deal after being non-tendered by the Blue Jays in the offseason. He spent parts of five seasons serving as a high-quality defender at both middle-infield positions for the Jays, but his work at the plate never matched the quality of his defense. That proved to be the case in Kansas City as well, where Goins received 120 plate appearances but batted just .226/.252/.313.

Goins is a career .228/.274/.333 hitter, but Defensive Runs Saved pegs him at 25 runs above average at second base in 2093 career innings and five runs above average at shortstop in 1370 innings as a Major Leaguer. Goins also has experience at third base in addition to very brief cameos at first base and in the outfield corners. He’s out of minor league options, so any team that claims him or trades for him will need to carry him on the Major League roster or else try to immediately pass him through waivers themselves.

Royals To Reinstate Jorge Bonifacio

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The Royals will reinstate outfielder Jorge Bonifacio from the restricted list tomorrow, tweets Jeffrey Flanagan of MLB.com. He’d been serving an 80-game PED suspension and will need to be added back to the 40-man and 25-man roster once activated. The corresponding move, according to Flanagan, will likely involve Ryan Goins. Indeed, Rustin Dodd of The Athletic tweets that Goins was “making the rounds” and shaking his teammates’ hands in the clubhouse after today’s game.

Bonifacio, 25, will likely be given an opportunity to receive regular work in the outfield. The former top prospect had a solid debut in 2017, hitting .255/.320/.432 with 17 homers, 15 doubles and a triple in 422 plate appearances. He logged 743 innings in right field for Kansas City last season, plus another 57 in left and eight in center. Defensive Runs Saved (-3) and Outs Above Average (-4) both pegged him as a slightly below-average defender, while Ultimate Zone Rating (+1.1) viewed him a bit more favorably.

Bonifacio has been able to begin gearing up for his return in the minors over the past two weeks, logging a dozen games with Triple-A Omaha and hitting quite well. Through 54 plate appearances, he’s batting .404/.481/.553 with five doubles and a triple.

The suspension for Bonifacio will prove costly if he is ultimately able to cement himself as a big league regular. He didn’t accrue Major League service time for the 80 games he missed, and by the time he’ll be activated from the disabled list, there won’t be enough days remaining in the season for him to reach a second full year of MLB service. As such, the suspension will push his eligibility for both arbitration and free agency back by a full year. Bonifacio would have been arb-eligible following the 2019 season and qualified as a free agent following the 2022 season. Instead, he’ll now have to wait until after the 2020 season for arbitration and won’t be a free agent until the completion of the 2023 season.

Goins, meanwhile, is out of minor league options, so the Royals can’t send him to the minors unless he first clears waivers. That makes it seem likely that he’ll be designated for assignment tomorrow, though the club could also opt to trade or release him as a means of opening a roster spot for Bonifacio. The 30-year-old Goins has given Kansas City has given the Royals quality defense through 224 innings at second base and has seen brief action at third base and shortstop as well. But, Goins has also struggled to the tune of a .226/.252/.313 batting line in 120 trips to the plate.

NL Notes: Lester, deGrom, Keller, Dietrich

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There’s no denying that Jon Lester has produced top-level results for the Cubs, but his peripherals reveal some cause for concern, as Jay Jaffe of Fangraphs writes in a detailed analysis of the veteran hurler that’s well worth your time. Suffice to say that Jaffe provides ample support for his conclusion that Lester is probably due for some significant regression. Of course, there’s not much for the Cubs to do here but continue riding Lester, who would still be a productive pitcher even if he falls back to last year’s earned-run levels. But it does seem notable that Lester’s 4.33 ERA in 2017 came with better grades from ERA estimators (4.10 FIP/3.85 xFIP/4.07 SIERA) than he has received to this point in 2018 (4.08 FIP/4.46 xFIP/4.51 SIERA).

Here’s more from the National League:

  • Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic argued recently (subscription link) that the Mets ought to try to get a long-term deal done with righty Jacob deGrom rather than shopping him this summer. Of course, such a move would be dependent upon the hurler’s own preferences, too, and may not be practicable in the middle of the season. Pursuing a new deal with deGrom would seem to imply an ongoing effort to contend in upcoming seasons, despite the organization’s recent disappointments. In that regard, Rosenthal’s related suggestion — that the team dangle co-ace Noah Syndergaard this summer instead — seems tough to square with that strategy. Syndergaard is younger, cheaper, and more controllable than deGrom. But his present value is likely lower, since he has dealt with significant injury issues of late. For a team in the Mets’ situation, a strategic choice to keep (and try to extend) deGrom would seem to support the retention of Syndergaard as well. Regardless, it’s an interesting situation. One key element in potential contract talks is deGrom’s relatively advanced age. Rosenthal’s colleague Tim Britton did a nice job breaking down a potential extension price tag in another recent subscription piece, suggesting a five-year arrangement (two arb years plus three would-be free-agent campaigns) structured in the same essential manner as Jake Arrieta’s contract with the Phillies (that is, with an opt-out provision that the team can void by adding more money to the deal). Whether there’s any interest in such a deal, on either side, really isn’t clear at this stage.
  • The Diamondbacks seem to have whiffed on righty Brad Keller, who was lost to the Royals via the Rule 5 draft and has now thrown 48 innings of 2.25 ERA ball on the year. Nick Piecoro of the Arizona Republic examines the topic from the perspective of the Arizona organization, noting that it seems the roster flexibility was there to protect Keller had the team made him a priority. GM Mike Hazen says that the Snakes liked the 22-year-old, but faced other considerations. “We made the conscious decision not to add him because of where he was in proximity to the major-league team, where we were in the cycle, what we wanted to use our 40-man spots for, we wanted to be aggressive in the offseason in claiming guys … that were closer to the big leagues in our mind,” Hazen explained.
  • Marlins outfielder Derek Dietrich is looking increasingly like a useful trade asset, Clark Spencer of the Miami Herald writes. The left-handed hitter has been on fire at the plate of late, running up his batting line to .303/.354/.491 in 294 plate appearances on the year. To be fair, he’s also walking less, striking out more, and carrying a heftier BABIP than usual, but Dietrich has produced a career-best 38.3% hard-hit rate this season as well. It’s also easy to forget that he has produced quite a bit in prior campaigns; indeed, he’s a 118 OPS+ hitter since the start of 2015. A substantial portion of that output came against right-handed pitching, though he has swung well against southpaws this year, his first as a true regular. Soon to turn 29, Dietrich is earning only $2.9MM in 2018 and can be controlled for two more seasons beyond the present one. He has never been regarded as a particularly good defender, but is capable of lining up in the corner outfield and infield as well as at second base — versatility that will appeal to some contenders but also to a Marlins team facing an uncertain future. All told, there are some clear limitations to Dietrich’s value, but there’s also quite a lot to like about the player.

Amateur Notes: July 2 Class, Draft, Indians, Pirates, Royals

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The international market is ready to get cranking again, with a new July 2nd class just around the corner. As usual, Ben Badler of Baseball America and Jesse Sanchez of MLB.com are providing plenty of insight. Badler just released his ranking of the 50 best international prospects, with lengthy scouting reports as well as anticipated signing teams and bonuses where available (a BA subscription is required). Sanchez, meanwhile, has his own top 30 rankings and scouting reports posted. On the top of Badler’s rankings is Cuban outfielder Victor Victor Mesa, who has yet to be declared a free agent by Major League Baseball. The other key distinction in his case is that he’s much older and more advanced than the bulk of the available talent. Indeed, Badler believes that Mesa is ready for an upper-minors placement, meaning he may not actually be far from the majors if he can translate his skills into professional production. Sanchez pegs Venezuelan catcher Diego Carataya as the top talent in the class, though perhaps only by way of technicality; because Mesa is not yet formally a free agent, he’s absent from the MLB.com list entirely.

Of course, when it comes to bringing in new talent, the immediate action remains centered around the 2018 amateur draft class:

  • With a deadline of July 6 to work out bonuses, there’s still plenty of time left for unsigned players to come to terms. At present, there are a fair number of first-rounders who’ve yet to lock up agreements. That includes four first-round players: No. 4 pick Nick Madrigal (White Sox), No. 5 pick Jonathan India (Reds), No. 7 pick Ryan Weathers (Padres), and No. 8 pick Carter Stewart (Braves). There’s no indication to this point that the respective teams will have trouble finalizing things. As always, you can catch up on the latest signings with our 2018 Amateur Draft tag.
  • Over the coming weeks, of course, we could begin to see some situations develop that warrant closer attention. It seems there’s at least a bit of uncertainty between the Brewers and their top pick, Brice Turang. The same can be said with regard to a few other talented young players. Ethan Hankins, the No. 35 overall selection, is still in talks with the Indians, as GM Mike Chernoff says and MLB.com’s Jordan Bastian tweets. But he also has an arrangement in place with Chipola College’s JuCo baseball program that would enable him to play a year and then re-enter next year’s draft, Doug Freeman of Prep Baseball Report tweets. Similarly, Pirates draftee Gunnar Hoglund — who went one pick after Hankins — has begun attending summer school orientation at Ole Miss, per Kiley McDaniel of Fangraphs (via Twitter).
  • Elsewhere, the status of Oregon State lefty Luke Heimlich remains uncertain as he participates in the finals of the College World Series. But Royals GM Dayton Moore had some noteworthy comments on the situation recently, leaving many to wonder if the Kansas City organization will make a move to add a player whose abilities aren’t questioned, but carries a highly controversial status as a convicted sexual offender. Indeed, Moore has already spoken on Heimlich quite a bit, as Rustin Dodd of The Athletic explains (subscription link). It’ll ultimately come down to an ownership call that has yet to be made, according to Dodd, who writes: “The Royals are not close to signing Heimlich, nor do they have any framework for a deal in place, according to a source familiar with the situation.” It’s hard to know just why the organization (or, perhaps, Moore personally) decided to air its feelings on this subject before reaching a decision. Now that he has, though, perhaps the public reaction will help inform the ultimate course of action.

Heyman’s Latest: O’s, Machado, Dodgers, Tribe, Marlins, Herrera, Taillon

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Here’s the latest from FRSBaseball.com’s Jon Heyman…

  • The Dodgers will continue to monitor Manny Machado’s availability, as L.A. still has interest in the star shortstop.  Machado and the Dodgers have been linked in trade rumors ever since Corey Seager was lost for the season, and with Los Angeles getting back into the postseason hunt after an early-season slump, Machado continues to look like a logical trade candidate.
  • The Indians are looking for the bullpen help, and they are one of multiple teams who have been in touch with the Marlins about Kyle Barraclough and Drew Steckenrider.  Cleveland’s relief corps has been a major weak spot for the team, and though Andrew Miller will eventually be back from the DL, it isn’t any surprise that the Tribe is looking for further upgrades.  Barraclough (who took over as Miami’s closer earlier this month) and Steckenrider are both having good seasons, though both have exhibited some control issues.  The Marlins are “open for business” in discussing virtually everyone on the roster, though they’re less likely to deal young, controllable players like Barraclough and Steckenrider for anything but a large return.  Beyond the bullpen, Heyman also thinks the Tribe could look for a right-handed bat for the bench.
  • The Braves were one of the teams interested in Kelvin Herrera before the Royals dealt the reliever to the Nationals.  Kansas City simply “saw the Nats as a better match” for a trade, and as Braves GM Alex Anthopoulos implied in a podcast appearance earlier this week, it seems like Atlanta wasn’t willing to meet the Royals’ asking price.  It remains to be seen how this decision could impact the NL East race, as the Braves not only saw Herrera join a division rival, but their own closer (Arodys Vizcaino) on the disabled list today.  Heyman does speculate about one silver lining for the Braves, however, as the fact that they’ve already had some talks with the Royals could help lay groundwork for a Mike Moustakas trade.  Overall, Heyman notes that the Braves would prefer to wait before making any big deals, as the team still isn’t quite sure what will end up being its biggest deadline need.
  • More on Herrera, as Heyman reports that the Astros didn’t make a play for the right-hander.
  • There is “no chance” that the Pirates would trade Jameson Taillon, a source tells Heyman.  Pittsburgh could yet decide to move some veterans at the deadline but Taillon seems untouchable, given his good season and four remaining years of team control.
  • The Pirates had some discussions with Andrew McCutchen about a longer-term extension following the outfielder’s MVP season in 2013.  At the time, McCutchen was just two years into what ended up being (thanks to a club option) a seven-year, $65.25MM deal with the Bucs.  According to Heyman, McCutchen had some regret about signing that deal, which kept him from hitting the open market after the 2015 season and ended up being an enormous bargain for Pittsburgh.  Further extension talks didn’t go far, however, as McCutchen and his team made mention of Joey Votto’s ten-year, $225MM deal with the Reds as a potential comparable.
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