We’re bringing back our annual series in the run-up to the trade deadline, drawing from our power ranking approach to pending free agents. As the summer trade market develops on a fairly tight timeline, you can expect more regular updates when modifications to the list are warranted.
The methodology — if you can call it that — is pretty straightforward. We’re ordering players based upon a combination of trade value and trade likelihood.
In terms of trade value, we’re starting with overall on-field value — with a premium on an ability to make an impact in the current season — and then adjusting for contract and market factors. With contenders’ needs in relatively sharp focus, limitations such as future contract status, age, and niche role (platoon bats, relief-only pitchers) tend to have less of a drag on value — though obviously they still matter quite a bit.
With regard to trade likelihood, the focus is on potential selling teams’ motivation to deal, with contract status, near and long-term roster fit, and overall competitiveness all weighing heavily. Some teams simply aren’t presently in a position where it makes sense to include their top potential trade chips, but that will evolve over the coming weeks.
It’s subjective; it’s debatable; and that’s what makes it fun. Here’s the first list, with some additional names and teams to keep an eye on appended at the end (all statistics current as of June 6):
1. Manny Machado, SS, Orioles: Are you considering the purchase of a mid-prime superstar on the left side of the infield this offseason? Why not try before you buy? Look, there’s not a ton to say here. Machado is raking, with 18 bombs and a 170 wRC+, and though he isn’t drawing primo metrics for his work at short, he’s about as good a rental asset as exists. Plus, several contenders will be considering pursuit of him on the open market, which might help with the sticker shock. Just how much he’ll return will depend on demand, but he could be an absolute game changer and will be priced accordingly.
2. Kelvin Herrera, RP, Royals: All you really need to know here is that Herrera has allowed two earned runs and no walks in his 23 2/3 innings this year. After scuffling last year, Herrera has been unstoppable in 2018. His swinging-strike rate is back to 14.6%, near his 2016 peak. While his fastball is down two ticks from his early-career levels, it’s still a healthy 97.2 mph. Sure, his 96.2% strand rate won’t last, and Statcast suggests there’s regression to come on the batted ball outcomes (.191 wOBA vs. .277 xwOBA), but there’s little doubt that Herrera is in fine form at the moment.
3-4. J.A. Happ, SP, Blue Jays; Cole Hamels, SP, Rangers: Comparing these two mid-30s southpaw starters would have seemed ludicrous a few years back, but age has treated them differently. Both have taken 100 starts since the beginning of the 2015 season. In that span, Hamels carries a solid 3.67 ERA with 8.4 K/9 and 3.1 BB/9 over 633 innings. And Happ? He has worked 583 frames of 3.50 ERA ball with 8.4 K/9 and 2.6 BB/9. Though Happ carries only a 4.08 ERA thus far in 2018, he has posted a career-high 11.2% swinging-strike and healthy combination of 11.1 K/9 with 2.6 BB/9. Hamels, too, has boosted his whiff and K numbers after a worrying dive last year, and also boasts a much lengthier postseason resume. Ultimately, different teams may prefer one over the other for a variety of reasons, but the biggest point of separation could be their varying contract situations. Happ is owed $13MM in the final year of his contract, a manageable sum that comes without further complications. Hamels, on the other hand, is due $22.5MM this year as well as a $6MM buyout on a $20MM club option (it won’t vest) for 2019. Despite the hefty strike price, that option could be seen as something of an asset for the right team, though it’s an added complication. Plus, Hamels can block trades to 20 teams.
5. Mike Moustakas, 3B, Royals: He may not have succeeded in free agency, but Moose has done all he can to set the stage for another entry onto the open market. He’s humming along at a strong .272/.328/.494 clip with a dozen long balls in 268 plate appearances while turning in league-average work at third. With a cost-efficient $5.5MM salary, and a $1MM buyout owed for a 2019 mutual option that almost certainly won’t be exercised, there’s plenty of excess value for the Royals to work with in trade talks. Ongoing uncertainty surrounding Josh Donaldson (who’s among the DL-bound players listed below) could boost Moustakas’s potential market value.
6. Wilson Ramos, C, Rays: The Buffalo is swinging the stick nearly as well as he did in a 2016 season that seemed destined to end in a big free-agent payday until he was felled by an ACL tear. With the Rays already showing a willingness to deal, it seems quite likely they’ll see what they can get for a player that could be in quite some demand as a high-quality rental catcher. Ramos is earning a reasonable $10.5MM salary this year, so he’ll fit most budgets rather comfortably.
7. Tyson Ross, SP, Padres: The 31-year-old increasingly seems to be back in business after two lost seasons. His injury woes and miserable 2017 showing won’t be forgotten entirely, of course, but teams facing salary and/or luxury tax constraints will surely like the fact that he is playing on a deal that promises just $1.75MM and includes a $4.25MM incentive package. Ross carries a 3.31 ERA and peripherals that largely match, with 9.0 K/9 and 3.3 BB/9. His 44.8% groundball rate sits a bit over the league average but significantly lags his peak levels. Ross is also bringing about 2 mph less heat with his fastball and not getting as many swings and misses (9.9%), but it’s still a vast improvement over last year.
8-9. Brad Hand, RP, Padres; Raisel Iglesias, RP, Reds: These two closers have dominant track records, are pitching quite well this year, and come with multiple, affordable years of control. With Alex Colome already changing hands, these are the top targets for clubs that need premium bullpen arms but don’t want to give up too much young talent for rental pieces. Neither team will feel compelled to make a deal, but surely both will listen to offers — and ask for loads of prospect value in return.
10. J.T. Realmuto, C, Marlins: Similarly, the Fish are in a clear selling posture but need not make a move on Realmuto. The 27-year-old is affordable ($2.9MM salary) and controllable for two more years. He’s also perhaps the game’s most athletic backstop and has thus far reached new heights offensively (.311/.376/.534 in 179 plate appearances). It’ll take a big haul to get Realmuto, but there are several teams with the necessary ammo, as well as the present and future need behind the dish. We broke down his status in full a month ago, and the Nats are reported to be maintaining interest.
11-12. Brad Brach, RP, Orioles; Joakim Soria, RP, White Sox: These are probably the best non-closer rental relievers at the moment. Brach is averaging nearly five walks per nine but is still getting Ks and carries a 3.33 FIP. Soria has a 3.57 ERA and 2.54 FIP, the latter of which is supported by his excellent K/BB numbers (10.4 K/9 against 1.7 BB/9). Neither pitcher is particularly cheap and both have had their issues in recent years, but they’d also fit nicely in most bullpens around the league.
13. Craig Stammen, RHP, Padres: The two-year, $4.5MM investment the Pads made in Stammen after a solid bounceback 2017 campaign has already paid off nicely. Now, the team will get to decide whether to cash in on the contract. Through 28 2/3 frames, Stammen has allowed just six earned on 22 hits while racking up 30 strikeouts against only five walks. The guess here is that the Friars’ front office will affix a relatively steep sticker price to the veteran reliever, but he certainly could be dealt if a young player of interest can be had in return. Alternatively, this is the type of contract that we’ve also seen packaged with another trade chip in recent years as a means of bolstering the return.
14. Scooter Gennett, 2B, Reds: We did a long look at Gennett’s trade candidacy quite recently, so won’t spend much time on him here. With another season of control and uncertain market demand, it’s still not clear whether the Reds will deal him, but he’ll certainly come up in talks after continuing an outstanding offensive breakout.
15. Jose Abreu, 1B, White Sox: Abreu is mashing again and comes with another season of arb control, though that won’t be cheap. The greater question, however, is whether the Sox will get an offer that really piques their interest given the lack of demand we’ve seen of late in slugging first basemen and a generally questionable market situation. The Chicago organization clearly values Abreu quite a bit for his leadership and clubhouse presence. Given that the Sox are hoping to turn things around sooner than later, they may prefer to hold him and pursue an extension unless a club knocks their socks off.
16-17. Adrian Beltre, 3B, Rangers; Adam Jones, OF, Orioles: There’ll be interest in these high-priced, pending free agents, each of whom has 10-and-5 rights that allows him to veto any trade. Those lofty salary numbers are particularly relevant given Beltre’s health questions and Jones’s good-but-not-great offensive numbers (107 OPS+). Ultimately, these organizations may simply not be all that interested in moving these longstanding, highly identifiable veterans, both of whom could end up returning even if they hit the open market first.
18-20. Justin Smoak, 1B, Blue Jays; Yangervis Solarte, INF & Blue Jays; Nicholas Castellanos, OF, Tigers: These players are all putting up good numbers for middling teams, but come with affordable future control. Smoak has doubled down on his breakout 2017 campaign and Solarte has been a quality asset, but both are controllable by way of cheap options (the latter for two more seasons) and could well be in the team’s plans. As for Castellanos, the Tigers have tried to extend him in the past and could do so again with another arb year still to come. It seems fair to assume they’ll put a high asking price on him given his quality offensive output this year, though it’s hard to see a big offer coming in given his mediocre glovework. Plus, Castellanos hasn’t made strides at drawing walks, so he’s riding an unsustainable .409 batting average on balls in play to prop up his on-base percentage (currently, a strong .371). Still, all three players could be targeted by organizations that would also value this trio’s future contract rights.
21-26. Kirby Yates, RHP, Padres; Nate Jones, RHP, White Sox; Kyle Barraclough, RHP, Marlins; Shane Greene, RHP, Tigers; Mychal Givens, RHP, Orioles; Keone Kela, RHP, Rangers: These relievers are all striking out more than a batter per inning and come with multiple future seasons of control. Their respective teams will need to decide whether the deadline makes for an opportune moment to move these volatile relief assets. The White Sox did so last year with Tommy Kahnle, who was sent out in a package deal and has struggled thus far in 2018, though none of these hurlers have pitched to the level Kahnle did in the run-up to the ’17 deadline. Yates has been the most impressive thus far, with dominant results and quality peripherals. Greene has functioned in the ninth inning for the Tigers with strong results; he’s also one of the team’s most useful trade pieces. Jones, Barraclough, and Givens have all been walk-prone but possess intriguing power arms. The former two have worked some in a closing capacity, but aren’t likely to be viewed that way by contenders. The O’s have given little indication of interest in moving Givens, who could be the team’s near-future closer, but will have to at least consider all possibilities. Most interesting of all, perhaps, is the 25-year-old Kela, who’s throwing harder than ever and carries peripherals that suggest his 4.03 ERA is on the unlucky side. He’s controllable for another three years, but given the past off-field issues between him and the team, perhaps this will represent a good point at which to strike a trade.
27-30. Matt Harvey, SP, Reds; Bartolo Colon & Doug Fister, SP, Rangers; Mike Fiers, SP, Tigers: It’s not terribly likely that any of these rental starters will be seen as postseason rotation pieces, but all could conceivably help boost the depth for a contending team. Harvey has shown a bit of life in Cincinnati and could still build up some value over the next several weeks, though there’s still not much reason to think he’ll regain his former form. Colon, Fister and Fiers carry ERAs in the low-4.00s and look like plausible back-of-the-rotation additions for a team simply in need of stable innings. Fiers’ control is improved, but he’s as homer-prone as ever (1.79 HR/9) — an area in which Colon and Fister have also had issues.
31-34. Tyler Clippard, Seunghwan Oh & John Axford, RHP, Blue Jays; Jesse Chavez, RHP, Rangers: Things generally aren’t going great in Toronto, but at least the Blue Jays seem largely to have cornered the market on serviceable, cheap middle relief rentals. Clippard is a known commodity with a 3.52 ERA, though a look beneath the hood doesn’t leave much cause for optimism. Axford and Oh have settled in as solid, if unspectacular middle relievers. Chavez carries quality K/BB numbers but has continued to be rather homer-prone in a long relief role.
35-38. Aaron Loup, LHP, Blue Jays; Luis Avilan, LHP, White Sox; Jake Diekman, LHP, Rangers: Both Loup and Avilan have shown quality peripherals and could be of use, while Diekman is an intriguing power pitcher whose walk rate is out of control at present. These pitchers are all affordable and expendable for their current teams; they are the types of arms that end up being sent elsewhere for bullpen depth every summer. Avilan may be the most attractive of the bunch by virtue of the fact that he has a year of control remaining beyond 2018, while Loup and Diekman are pure rentals.
38-39. Jose Iglesias, SS, Tigers; Freddy Galvis, SS, Padres: You know what you’re getting with this pair of pending free agents. Neither is particularly cheap — just over $6MM a pop for the year — and neither provides value with the bat. But Iglesias is a high-end defender at shortstop and Galvis provides solid glovework there along with plenty of experience at other spots on the field. Either could fill in at short and provide value with the glove, and either could be a defensive-oriented upgrade to a contender’s bench.
40. A.J. Ellis, C, Padres: Nobody expects the 37-year-old to keep hitting at a .303/.405/.409 clip, but it’s nice that he’s in good form at the plate. More importantly, the veteran receiver is a trusted hand behind the dish who’s earning a reasonable $2.5MM this year. He could fill a void elsewhere as a backup option.
41-42. Billy Hamilton, OF, Reds; Leonys Martin, OF, Tigers: There’s really no reason to think that Hamilton is going to start hitting. Sure, he might creep back toward his ugly career batting line of .244/.297/.330, but the ship has probably sailed on Hamilton as a regular player on a first-division team. That doesn’t mean he can’t be useful, though, particularly to a contender that would like to add a high-end defender and baserunner to help out in late-game spots in the postseason. It’s hard to imagine that the Reds will get significant offers, and it’s tough to know whether a deal will come together with another arb year remaining, but Hamilton would be an interesting addition in the right situation. As for Martin, the 30-year-old is a good defender in center who has a much more useful bat than does Hamilton. He’s off to a .259/.327/.467 start with eight home runs in 217 plate appearances. It doesn’t hurt that he’s playing on a cheap, $1.75MM salary and can be retained for another year via arbitration.
43-45. Dan Straily, SP, Marlins; Clayton Richard & Jordan Lyles, SP, Padres: On the face of things, Straily has returned from an early-season injury to pitch well. He owns a 3.50 ERA through 36 innings, after all. But the right-hander has surrendered an inauspicious combination of 5.5 BB/9 and 1.5 HR/9 on the year. The Fish may well hold onto his final two years of arb control and hope for better. Likewise, the Padres don’t need to move Richard and Lyles, who are helping fill innings this year and can be retained at a low cost in 2019. Both would be of most interest to other teams as relievers or swingmen. Richard gets loads of ground-balls and has outperformed his 4.67 ERA, while Lyles looked good in a relief role before a move to the rotation that showed initial promise and has begun to falter under repeated testing.
46. Starlin Castro, 2B, Marlins: Now 28 years of age, Castro has settled in as a solid-enough player — a roughly average hitter and tolerable but below-average defender — who may hold appeal to contenders as an everyday guy. But he could plug a gap or perhaps function in some sort of utility role. Castro is owed $10MM this year and another $12MM thereafter (including a $1MM buyout on a 2020 option), so the Fish would mostly just be looking to save some money by striking a deal. Uncertainty surrounding Martin Prado could cut both ways here. On the one hand, the club has greater need for a veteran infielder. On the other, there’s no longer any hope at all of unloading a portion of the Prado contract.
47-48. Jared Hughes & David Hernandez, RHP, Reds: These two are something like the bullpen equivalents of Richard and Lyles (but with better results). Neither is likely to continue pitching like a relief ace, but both are carrying peripherals that speak to the merit of their efforts thus far. With cheap contracts covering both the current and ensuing campaigns, though, the Reds can set a fairly steep ask and decide to hold if it’s not met.
49. Michael Fulmer, RHP, Tigers: Fulmer is among the most enticing rotation pieces in the game that could plausibly be dealt this summer. The problem for the Tigers, though, is that his performance simply isn’t up to par with his first two excellent seasons in the Majors. Fulmer’s velocity is as good as ever, and he’s sporting career-best swinging-strike and chase rates to complement strikeout and ground-ball rates that’re in line with his 2016 Rookie of the Year levels. But his walk rate has soared to 3.7 per nine, and he’s averaging a career-worst 1.22 homers per nine innings. If teams are willing to look past his sudden control and home run issues, perhaps the Tigers can yet receive a franchise-altering package. However, Detroit improbably remains on the fringes of the division race in a terrible AL Central, and with Fulmer controlled another four seasons beyond ’18, there’s no rush to move him unless the return is exorbitant.
50. Whit Merrifield, 2B, Royals: Speaking of players with four years of control, Merrifield has emerged as a late-blooming star in Kansas City. He’s hitting .284/.363/.411 with elite baserunning, a bit of pop and intriguing defensive versatility. Merrifield plays an excellent second base and has also lined up on the outfield grass, including in center. The remaining club control and the fact that he won’t even be arb-eligible until the 2019-20 offseason are compelling reasons to keep him, but Merrifield is also already 29 and the Royals don’t expect to contend for years. Second base hasn’t been an in-demand position in recent years, but Merrifield is the type of player that should fetch a package featuring multiple prospects and/or near-MLB-ready assets.
Disabled List
Steve Pearce & Josh Donaldson (Blue Jays); Chris Archer & Adeiny Hechavarria (Rays); Zach Britton & Darren O’Day (Orioles); Francisco Liriano & Jordan Zimmermann (Tigers); Lucas Duda (Royals); Avisail Garcia (White Sox); Elvis Andrus (Rangers)
Also Considered
Athletics – Jonathan Lucroy and Jed Lowrie could each be significant rental assets, among other potential pieces, but the Oakland brass likely won’t consider a sell-off unless and until the team falls out of Wild Card contention. That hasn’t happened yet.
Blue Jays – Toronto is fading at the moment, but it’s unclear how deep the cuts could go if there’s a sell-off. Veteran starters Marco Estrada and Jaime Garcia could be back-end pieces for other organizations, but both have turned in very poor performances on sizable contracts. Curtis Granderson has lots of walks, but also lots of strikeouts, and hasn’t hit for as much power as usual. Kevin Pillar would surely draw interest, but there’s no pressure to deal him with two more arb years still to come.
Marlins – There’s no question of the door being open to dealing, though it’s not yet clear how many deadline moves the Miami organization will end up striking after a big offseason sell-off. Justin Bour and Derek Dietrich might continue to make more sense on the Miami roster than as trade chips, though both are hitting well and could draw interest. The club would love to move some of the money owed to Wei-Yin Chen and Brad Ziegler, but the results for both have been abysmal to this point. Outfielder Cameron Maybin could make it into a future version of this list, but he’s not producing much at the plate.
Mets – Things aren’t looking great for a club that has faded after a hot start and faces a variety of roster woes. But the Mets are still within striking distance and are far from seriously entertaining any trade scenarios. While some outside observers have batted around the idea of a Jacob deGrom swap, that still seems quite unlikely. (If there’s a chance, it’s because of the dearth of high-end arms reflected in the above list.) More likely, if it comes to it, would be a few rental deals, with Asdrubal Cabrera looking like the most useful asset at this point. It’s a different situation than last year, when the Mets had numerous one-year veterans to move, but there are a host of interesting scenarios that could arise if the team can’t break out of its current malaise.
Orioles – It’s all a matter of where they stop dealing, because a mid-season yard sale is all but inevitable. Jonathan Schoop, Kevin Gausman, and Dylan Bundy are among the controllable players who the O’s could in theory listen to offers on, but all have run into some difficulties this year and it’s not clear that rivals will rise to meet what’ll surely be eyebrow-raising asking prices. If the team is willing to eat some money, perhaps they could find takers for some of the cash still due to Mark Trumbo or Andrew Cashner. Clubs in need of a bench bat might consider Danny Valencia or Pedro Alvarez.
Pirates – Jordy Mercer, Ivan Nova, Sean Rodriguez, David Freese, Francisco Cervelli, Corey Dickerson, and especially Felipe Vazquez would all draw varying levels of trade interest. But while the Buccos have faded to a .500 mark after a strong start, it doesn’t seem likely that they’re considering a sell-off just yet.
Rangers – They’d love to move Shin-Soo Choo‘s contract, but that’s decidedly unlikely. Jurickson Profar has raised his profile after years as a trade candidate, but with multiple affordable years left, there’s no rush to move him. Robinson Chirinos‘s power behind the plate is intriguing, but his strikeout rate is through the roof and the team will like the idea of keeping him for 2019 with a cheap option. Tony Barnette is the type of affordable reliever who’s often moved for a relatively minimal return.
Rays – It’s curious to see so many Tampa Bay players populating the list while the team has a winning record. Then again, they already dealt away their closer and a productive outfielder, so there’s not much reason to think the organization will hold back at the deadline. In addition to the players noted above, veteran position players Brad Miller and Carlos Gomez could end up drawing attention, while the team could also weigh offers on relievers, perhaps even including lefty Jonny Venters.
Reds – Adam Duvall is having a disastrous season, and OBP-challenged corner outfielders with pop have hardly been in-demand trade/free-agent commodities in recent years. Scott Schebler could be of more interest.
Royals – Alcides Escobar is hitting less than either Jose Iglesias or Freddy Galvis. Jason Hammel, Danny Duffy and Ian Kennedy have all struggled this season, though Duffy’s track record at least makes him interesting. Still, it’s hard to imagine the Royals selling low on a pitcher of his caliber.
Tigers – Beyond the names in the Top 50, there’s not a lot of trade currency on this roster. Alex Wilson is just back from the DL and could be moved if he’s throwing well come July. Perhaps there’s still some distant chance of a deal involving Miguel Cabrera, though structuring such an arrangement would be quite complicated.
White Sox – The Sox would love to drop the remainder of the $10MM they’re paying Shields in 2018, and to his credit he’s pitched fairly well of late (with the exception of a seven-run shellacking in his most recent start). Shields recently wrapped up a seven-start stretch in which he tossed 47 innings of 3.45 ERA ball with a 36-to-14 K/BB ratio, but he’s the type of arm a fringe contender may take on to stabilize the fifth spot in the rotation, knowing that the asking price will be negligible so long as the ChiSox receive some salary relief. Hector Santiago and Bruce Rondon may also draw some interest, but Rondon’s control is still poor.
No Zach Britton, or did I just miss him??
Disabled list section.
If the Nats can’t land JT, a reunion with Ramos would be amazing.
Cervelli is playing at an all star level right now. If he keeps it up he should be a hot commodity.
Why would the Mets not trade deGrom??! He has one more year of club control and he is having an amazing year, trade him now get as much prospects as you can!!
Two more years of control. He’ll be on the list next time if they don’t turn it around.
The Mets don’t make a lot of sense to me. This clearly is not their year as they were hanging any hope of success this season on their pitching, which has been banged up, along with some FA signing that haven’t seemed to pan out to date. I’m with you on DeGrom. With 2 years left of arbitration, he would bring back a substantial haul and there’s always the risk of injury the longer you wait. The Mets house be looking to trade any piece that won’t be around in 2 to 3 years and rebuild the farm. Time and time again, teams have shown that is the way to go. Being in the middle gets you know where.
At a minimum Mets need to be shopping Degrom and Syndergaard to get a sense of what the return would be. One of the NY writer’s (don’t recall which) recently posited a Yankees-Mets trade and pointed out the Mets would rightly want a lot more than what the Yankees got for Chapman and Miller a couple of years back. If they get a huge return of top prospects/young major league talent and they are still scrapping along in a month, they have to do it- dump Familia, and other bullpen guys with value, Cabrera, see if Bruce or Cespedes can be moved if money for this season is included, and try for a quick rebuild.
Good point, I would trade him at the deadline when his vallue is the highest. Don’t make the same mistake the O;s did with Machado.
Ramos is actually making $10.5 mil this year due to a games played clause met in his contract from last year.
Ah, thanks. Fixed.
I’ve never understood why Hamilton got so much hype. If you look at Jarrod Dyson and Hamilton’s stats they are similar yet Hamilton got more love from most fans around the league. I rather would have Dyson on my team as a 4th/5th OF coming down the stretch than Hamilton. I see Hamilton being out of baseball by 2021/22.
The hype came around two of his tools being absolutely elite – he’s a top notch defender at a premium position, and arguably the best baserunner in baseball. Yeah, the hope that his bat developing was more hope than expectation, but his floor is still productive.
If the buccos fall out they should cash in on Corey Dickerson. Controlled only through next year, but could give them a sizable return
Should’ve mentioned him with the Bucs guys to watch. He’s there now.
Harvey has shown a bit of life in Cincinnati?!? Aside from him breathing and having a pulse, he has shown absolutely no life.
Always felt like Hamilton will sizzle as a 4th guy. Would love to see the Cubs get him.
LOL-Billy Hamilton would be the 6th guy in an already crowded Cubs outfield mix of Albert Almora, Jason Heyward, Kyle Schwarber, Ian Happ and Ben Zobrist.
Hamilton can’t get on base enough to become an option as the Cubs leadoff hitter. Albert Almora can match his glove in CF while also providing significant offensive production. Additionally, Hamilton would be no upgrade over the last Cub position player on the bench in Tommy La Stella who not only provides backup at 3B and 2B but also happens to be the best pinch-hitter in MLB.
The Cubs simply can’t afford to carry a 6th OF just to pinch run late in games. They also don’t need a late inning defensive specialist with Almora in CF and perennial Gold Glove Heyward in RF. Happ and Zobrist provide the team plenty of additional versatility afield and are more than adequate defensively to spell Schwarber in LF.
As a final point, the Cubs always need to carry a 13 man pitching staff with a skipper who micro-manages one like nobody’s business.
LeStella is too valuable off the bench. Hamilton would literally be a once a week starter 6 days a week bench guy. He would be a down grade to all the outfielders the Cubs already have.
Yep, 2 years ago he would have been great. Not needed anymore
Alen Hanson>> Tommy La Stella
Again, getting Machado on the open market won’t help with the sticker shock. The prospects he will net in a trade aren’t the type of thing you give up to MAYBE have a marginally better chance of signing a guy. Whoever trades for Machado does so with their eye on 2018 and nothing more.
I agree that trading for Machado won’t help re-sign him.
But you and I aren’t the only ones aware of that. Every executive in the league knows it. So why do you assume a two month rental would cause a “sticker shock”? He’s a rental. He’s gonna cost a decently ranked position player prospect, or two ranked pitching prospects. No one in the top 20, either way.
Because this article says “Plus, several contenders will be considering pursuit of him on the open market, which might help with the sticker shock.”
Here we go again. Nice to see ya again, westcoastrooster.
Who do you know here?
Hey RedcoastRyan! 2 words! Justin Upton!
I think you meant to use your cubsfan2489 account for that comment.
It won’t help it, but lets not beat around the bush here, the Yankees have the trading pieces and the money to sign him. Andujar is 23 and under team control, add 2-3 other pieces, and on top of that Manny’s BFF A-Rod is a Yankee fan and has been soft-recruiting him to go there pretty much his entire career.
So yes, in terms of “try before you buy” if you are talking about specifically the Yankees, then yes, they probably will do this. Trade for him, then sign him as a FA.
I normally would totally agree with your thinking here. And I don’t necessarily think that consideration is going to have a measurable impact, really.
That said, this situation is unique because Manny is such a young, high-end player. It may not move the needle much for a front office doing cold, hard math. (Though even there, it may a bit … get him comfy with your team, get an up-close medical and clubhouse look at him. How much is that worth when you’re thinking of staking over $300MM?) But think of how many times we hear after the fact that big moves are scuttled by ownership. Or driven by ownership. These decisions aren’t always made in a strictly rational manner, from a baseball perspective. So I think there could be some impact here, actually.
“… get him comfy with your team, get an up-close medical and clubhouse look at him. How much is that worth when you’re thinking of staking over $300MM?”
Certainly less than the prospects we both know Machado is going to net in a trade. And trading for him in advance of his free agency can also backfire (as it did with the Dodgers and Yu Darvish).
In the end, if getting Machado long-term is the key to the deal for you, you are better off waiting until the offseason and making a play for him in free agency. Trading for Machado does not have the future in mind.
Unless of course that future is a 2018 World Series championship above all else and Machado is the final piece to that end result.
Who suggested any scenario in which “getting Machado long-term is the key to the deal”? And why does it matter that the future considerations are (clearly) worth “less than the prospects” he’ll return?
Happy to discuss these things, but you’re suggesting I’ve staked out quite a different position than I have. I wrote “might help with the sticker shock.”
And I’m saying that signing him long-term wouldn’t help with the sticker shock because trading for Machado and signing him are independent variables.
Like, last year, some Dodgers fan said on here that the Dodgers had to sign Rich Hill otherwise it would mean they gave up Holmes, Cotton and Montas for a pair of rentals. But he left out the part where the Dodgers basically bid against themselves to sign Rich Hill. They didn’t have to give up the three prospects to do that.
Cool. You may be correct.
Any team interested in signing a free agent has to hope he will be traded to another team, any other team, during the prior season so he will be unburdened by a QO. The QO is the only tangible financial incentive for a free agent to sign back with his previous team. We’ve seen that happen but it isn’t so common for a rental to sign back with the team that traded for him. Rich Hill really isn’t a good example because the Dodgers were going after him in free agency not because he’d pitched for them for the last part of the previous season, but because he was the best free agent starter available, and they had that need.
I don’t think anyone in is arguing that you don’t have to trade 3 prospects to be able to sign Manny Machado. But you can’t quantify the value of having Machado for a half season as zero. For the team and the player. There’s some value for the FA pursuit in having Machado. You say it backfired on the dodgers trading for Darvish, which gave them an opp to sign him, but I’d say that didn’t backfire on them at all. Sure, he didn’t perform and it backfired on their postseason run but it gave them a look into what he was really worth going forward. He didn’t fit in LA. I’m sure the cubs aren’t thrilled with the 126 million they’re saddled with right now. I’d say not spending 125+ on Darvish might just be worth losing Willie Calhoun.
The Dodgers didn’t trade for Darvish to get a look at him, they traded him for the stretch run and the postseason. You can’t judge why the Dodgers made that trade based on the results (which in any case were good, right up to but not including the World Series). Also, he wasn’t signed as a free agent because he didn’t fit in LA, but because the Dodgers needed to clear payroll, which they were unable to do for him or anyone else significant. All the evidence pointed to both the player and the team being interested in a reunion.
And of course nobody would argue that the value of Machado for two or three months is zero. Who would trade for no value anyway?
“But you can’t quantify the value of having Machado for a half season as zero.”
I’m not. But it’s certainly not worth the prospects Machado will cost in a trade. For the purposes of valuing him in a trade, you have to work under the assumption he will sign elsewhere after the season.
@BlueSkyLA and that is what whoever trades for Machado is going to be acquiring him for. The stretch run and postseason.
Also, based on Darvish’s comments from when he signed with the Cubs, he didn’t seem too keen on the idea of re-signing with the Dodgers, regardless of whether or not they wanted him to.
2 words RedRyan! 2 words!
No SF Giants
J.A. Happ, SP, Blue Jays; Cole Hamels, SP, Rangers: Comparing these two mid-30s southpaw starters would have seemed ludicrous a few years back
—————-
Comparing pitchers while ignoring park factors is always ridiculous. Hamels has been pitching in a far more hitter friendly park than Happ.
So how ’bout looking up their park adjusted stats?
I did. They all support Happ as the better recent pitcher.
Do they? Not that that was my point.
Whatever your intentions, you suggested we had not considered park-neutral measurements of performance, and that’s not the case. Happ > Hamels in ERA-, FIP-, xFIP- whether you look at last 1+ or 2+ or 3+ seasons. Hamels has him by measure of ERA- this season, which means little. Happ’s performance has graded much higher in 2018: 3.47 FIP/3.17 xFIP/3.09 SIERA vs. 5.38/4.29/4.04 for Hamels.
It’s refreshing to see the author of a published article actually engage his readers, thank you for that. I do read this site frequently, because you guys have quality info.
And you’re right, I was looking at 2018 numbers alone….in light of your ridiculously well researched reply, I’m happy to concede that I was clinging to a way too small sample size.
P.S. Looking back at my original comment, it was very rude, and I should apologize.
Had I realized that this was the start of a conversation with the author of the article, rather than something only other site visitors would read, I would’ve been whaaaay more polite.
I appreciate that, thanks. We really put a lot of effort into these kinds of posts and dig more than is reflected in what we write up in the blurbs. (Not to say we don’t miss things.)
It’s okay. I get that. This was all mild for the internet anyway, ha.
FWIW, I have been panned before for going into the comments on my own posts. Far as I’m concerned, if writers are willing to engage with people on Twitter or otherwise, this is really a better place to do it.
The only thing ridiculous was your post. Rogers stadium is a hitters paradise in a division full of hitters parks. Do your homework before calling out Jeff and looking like an idiot.
Rogers CENTRE is not a hitters paradise, it’s a fairly neutral park. Far less hitter friendly than Arlington.
But I do concede that calling Jeff out was wrong…turns out he does know about park adjusted stats:)
Fulmer to the Dodgers would be a move I’d like to see – also would like to see them in the hunt for Merifield.
Merrifield would be a steal for any team. The guy is a South Carolina Legend.
Somebody tell Arte Moreno that Josh Hamilton is also available for the right 10 year deal.
Hey Arte showed Josh Hamilton the door.
He had to pay the man, but he showed him the door
Nah, you don’t get to “show someone the door” while stuffing 60 million in his pockets, it doesn’t work like that. Poor choice of words there.
Can the Orioles trade Buck Showalter for anything?
Gets awful stinky after 20. Maybe the list should have been kept to top 10-15.
Be nice if the article made predictions where they could land or be best fit
One comment above wants us to try less hard and cut the list after ~15. You want us to keep going and make predictions for all these guys with two months to go. I think we have the right balance, but I’m glad that we left you wanting more!
We will do closer analysis of landing spots as the deadline closes in. Obviously it’d be possible for some of these guys right now, but for much of the list it’d be foolish to try.
I will say, I switched to here from bleacher report, because I couldn’t stand all the non sports over there. But I do miss the prediction articles they had. Would love if you guys did that here. There is no comparison to the quality and depth of info you guys have here compared to bleacher report, but predictions would be cool
It’s a tough line. I could spew hot takes and give bold predictions, but I wouldn’t feel great about doing it even if people ate it up. We don’t generally take hard stances because we know how variable this stuff really is. Comes down to honesty: are you just writing something because you know it’ll generate clicks or because it reflects your actual thinking?
That said, predictions are fun. We do that with free agency every year, which involves loads of debate and research. Perhaps we can consider doing predictions for certain trade candidates this summer, or maybe writing some posts where we give our best guesses at some of the major moves. Would be interesting to try.
Thanks for your comment!
Yea, just like a 1 liner. “Best fit: braves, mets, SF.” Don’t need to over complicate it for us. Regardless loved the article. My dry comment makes it out like I didn’t. This is the type of stuff I enjoy reading outside my own team
The Mets should swallow their pride and trade deGrom while his value is the highest. Yanks traded Miller with two and a half years to go on his deal….if the Yanks are humble enough to make a move like that, the Mets of all teams should be too.
Trading someone with 2 1/2 years left doesn’t mean you don’t plan on competing for that long. It just means you’re turning someone who’s hot now into future assets. Those assets could be useful within a year, it doesn’t have to take 2 1/2.
Again, look at the Miller deal: Clint Frazier was contributing in the majors in 2017, until he got hurt. His presence also allowed the Yankees to trade several lesser outfield prospects for pitching. He will also likely be dealt before 2018 is over, for even more pitching. And then there’s Sheffield, who’s the Yanks best pitching prospect right now. He’s unlikely to be dealt, or contribute at the major league level in 2018, but simply having him allows the Yankees to make other pitching prospects available for trade. So that deal, in 2016, is actually making the Yankees stronger right now, than they’d be had they kept Miller.
I want the crew to trade for Merrifield. We need anybody mediocre up the middle if we are to handle the playoffs. I’d also like a quality SP on the squad, but theres only 2-3 reliable ones at the moment, and hypothetically, bumgarner and degrom would be way too expensive.
The Braves middle infielders are doing very well right now. The only thing the Braves need in order to make a post season run is for everyone to stay healthy (obviously), a stud pitcher, and a 3rd baseman. Riley is hurt and as a result will not be getting called up this season. He also has a high strike out rate in triple A and that is not in sync with what the team has been doing for plate approach this year. Spending on Degrom would be worth it. He is extremely durable and reliable and would make the Braves a true contender. 3rd base is a difficult fix for the Braves. I would like to see us get Degrom.
For the sake of having a player worth going to the ball park for, I hope Adam jones is an Oriole for the rest of his career
As an outsider looking in Adam Jones has always struck me as a solid but unspectacular ball player. A guy that had his moments, but also had some definite flaws. A solid contributor, but in no way a true star.
At this stage of his career I just wouldn’t see a lot of demand for him.
Brian Dozier. He’ll be on the Red Sox
Brian Dozier, along with any other Twin teammates are nowhere to be found on this preliminary list of top trade candidates. Of course that could easily change between now and July 31st depending on the Twins standing in the AL Central and wild card races. Should the Twins fall out of the race, Dozier would likely shoot up into the top-10 of any future list as an impending FA this coming offseason while also being among the games best all around second baseman.
In the meantime, any interest by the Red Sox in Dozier will be predicated on the condition of Dustin Pedroia’s surgically-repaired knee between now and the trade deadline.
Nobody wants Colon
Todd, do you mean that Justin Smoak is doubling down on his 2017 season? His ops+ of 129 last year was pretty good.
Yes, typo. Thanks.
Half this list won’t be traded
Yes, but which half? All will be in discussion.
The Twins should be part of this. By the time Polanco gets back from suspension, Santana gets back from inexplicably late winter surgery, Buxton back from another injury, and Sano back from the buffet line, it will be way too late. Doomed season. Sell, sell, sell….
Its much too early for the Twins to sell. Cleveland is a shell of what they were last year. The division is up for grabs.
Aren’t Familia, Ramos and Blevins all free agents at the end of the year? I know they have minor injuries/ ineffective but they should be on the list somewhere, if they are.
With the ability to plug Merrifield’s 3-4 WAR/season production anywhere besides C (and maybe SS) and the fact he’s making the minimum, i feel like his value is significantly higher than 50th. Does his age and the (justifiably) high prospect cost depress his trade-ability that much?
Are we related
Yeah, I found that odd too. I’d have him top 10, easily.
I think you’re right. Dayton Moore has already traded John Jay, Herrera and Moustakas are Next. Merrifield is much more valuable to a contending team that he is the Royals. If he was 23 or 24 it would be different but he’s 29. I think Dayton Moore will trade Merrifield before the end of July and I think he will get some surprisingly good prospects for him. As a Royals fan I see him play every game, he does everything well. Virtually every contending team could use Merrifield. He’s very much like a younger Zobrist.
He’s at 50th on the list because:
A) It always seems like a fairly long shot that even a rebuilding team will trade a guy with that much club control remaining, and
B) Because the market for second basemen has generally been weak, both in free agency and in trade, in recent years.
So, in briefer terms, yes you’re correct that we don’t consider it especially likely that he’s moved. But if he is, the price tag, as you alluded to, should be quite high. Jeff and I agree on that point.
I’m a braves fan and the one guy I want is not on here. Suarez from the reds. Does that mean he simply is not available because he would be perfect on the braves.
I would like to see the Braves get Degrom.
Same. But at what cost? What will the Mets want .. inter division???? It will be steep.
I can’t wait to see who gets Machado and at what cost. There are really only a few teams I think have the space and prospects.
I’d love to see the A’s trade Barreto as the headliner in a package for deGrom.
you’ve went way past crazy into a new stratosphere…
and your overwritten hyperbole is still really boring
No way in the world could the A’s acquire degrom first of all. Second your takes on the trade market are naive at best. Now go play with your crayons and let the fans of contending teams discuss such players availability.
I feel like the As would rather have 6 years of Barreto over 2.5 years of DeGrom, even though I’d rather have the latter. I’ll concede that it looks like the team may be buying soon, given that their competitive window is opening. Maybe not this trade deadline, but some free agency splashes during the offseason could prime them for acquisitions during next year’s trade deadline.
I’ve thought for the last couple of seasons that Barreto was more likely to be a flop than a success. I’ve seen nothing in his fame recently to suggest that failure isn’t his most likely outcome.
Of course I’ve also been very vocal that my impressions of Alex Jackson in the braves system was the same. I felt strongly this past,off season that the braves should have used him as a trade chip. Unfortunately and fairly predictably Jackson has taken steps backwards and lost a lot of that value he’d temporarily gained.
That’s not all that far fetched if you think about what it will take to get DeGrom. I have a feeling Oakland will wait 1 more year before going all in. Wait for Mariners and Angels to fall off next year, IF they fall off, because of the vets they have $$ committed to beyond this year.
You’re not getting degrom if you’re best prospect is Franklin Barreto. Sorry to say it but it’s just not happening. He has serious contact issues and the Mets aren’t giving up a guy like that unless you have a pretty damn close to a can’t miss prospect included in the package. The A’s don’t have that.
Thank you jbigz12 finally a level head enters the picture. If the Mets ever decide to trade deGrom it certainly won’t be for the likes of Barreto, more like a prospect the caliber of Torres and the likes.
As the Mets procrastinate they will miss their window for de Grom. The market will tell us what he is worth. Mets will have some tough decisions to make at the deadline.
I read the preface, so I understand the caveats about teams’ long and short term plans affecting the availability of the players listed. But really, some of these guys seem culled from last place teams that are assumed to be ready to trade anybody.
Your list includes the top three Padres starters, the Padres closer and both setup men, the only shortstop on the major league club, and the veteran catcher who’s getting far more play than expected because their first string catcher is on the DL for an extended stretch.
That’s fine if you think the Padres are several years away and they’re willing to rush minor leaguers to fill the void, but the fact is, the Padres are 5-1/2 games out of first place. The top 2-1/2 teams (Dodgers, Diamondbacks, and Giants) have serious pitching woes and underperformance at the plate. So do the Rockies and Padres, which means anybody can win the division.
It’s possible Dodgers/D’backs depth will cause them to pull away, but the division is looking more and more like 2005, when the division title was won with an 82-80 record. In fact, the NL West, considered a strong division before the season, is a prime candidate for an extended analysis of what happened.
Wish the Sox had a line of prospects to land Scooter.
Also, id trade Bradly for Hamilton straight up.
What? In no way will a Scooter trade get a line of prospects
Plus Bradley is still more valuable than Hamilton !
Stop commenting
Like this
You duashcanoe !
2 Words RedRyan! 2 words!
Dey terk er jerbs !
Cause scooter has no value after the last 2 seasons…hmm
Sure he does, but he’s a FA after this year
and I’m sure there will be several teams interested , but not at that price !
Hence why I don’t gm but id trade home while the current value is there. The reds are not in contention so get value 4 value.
Gennett has 1 more year of control after this one genius.
*cough* cough*
No sh*t as the article stated that. Genius.
My comment is a hypothical move. That’s it. Genius
My comment was in response to brucewayne. He said Gennett is a free agent after this year. Sorry if I offended you. Not my intention with anyone who isn’t brucewayne or his sockpuppet account cubsfan2489.
What happens if say I’m Bruce’s clone?
Lmao
Its all good . its a forum . I misread so my bad as well. I’m a long time reader but started posting. In the future, people will hate hence my tag name.
What teams could use a guy like Donaldson for a playoff push? i know he isnt the same player he was in 2015 or 2016 but what is his value. When healthy he is a pretty solid player but thats his problem he cant seem to stay healthy. just wondering what a team would give up for him like the cardinals maybe 2 prospects from the 5-10 range? or more?
I agree that value has dropped because of injuries however we talking trade deadline. I still forecast him driveing alot to makena trade happen. Currently many teams that werent suppose to be in playoff contention is and they have a good farm system…so the door is open if traded.
Swihart
How Much Will It Help If Either Now Or Sometime Before His New York Yankees Host The Boston Red Sox On June 29 For A 3 Game Series At Yankee Stadium,Brian Cashman Trades Albert Abreu,Domingo Acevedo,Clint Frazier & Estevan Florial For Either Madison Bumgarner,Cole Hamels,Patrick Corbin,James Paxton,Danny Duffy,Jacob DeGrom,Chris Archer,Felix Hernandez,Tyson Ross Or Michael Fulmer?