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Poll: The Handling Of Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Eloy Jimenez

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Two of the most talented players in Triple-A will remain there throughout the month of September. Third baseman Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Eloy Jimenez will not receive a cup of coffee in the majors this month, per recent announcements from the Blue Jays and White Sox, respectively.

To those well-versed in MLB service time rules and practices, this news induces a reaction closer to a yawn than a surprise; teams have been using the service clock to manipulate team control for quite some time, and there was no reason to believe that would change in regards to Guerrero Jr. or Jimenez. Recent examples of players whose service time has been suppressed by their respective teams in order to yield them an additional year of team control include Kris Bryant, George Springer and Ronald Acuna Jr., and that list is far from complete. Others still, including the likes of Francisco Lindor, have been held in the minors long enough to reduce their earning power.

That doesn’t mean agents are quieting down about the issue, though. Both players’ representatives have been vocal in regards to their clients’ dearth of a promotion, as well they ought to be considering they’ll miss out on a significant amount of money. Jimenez’ agent in particular blasted with White Sox for service time manipulation. “Especially with elite players like Eloy and (Blue Jays top prospect) Vlad (Guerrero) Jr., that’s the nature of the business,” said Dan Kinzer. “It’s not about the money. It’s the extra year of control.” Similarly, the MLBPA has spoken out against Chicago and Toronto on the subject.

Perhaps J.J. Cooper of Baseball America put it best in his recent piece on the subject: it’s impossible to objectively argue that these players don’t deserve a call up based on performance. Guerrero Jr. has hit .336/.414/.564 with a microscopic 7.8% strikeout rate since his promotion to Triple-A this season, while Jimenez owns an even more excellent .355/.399/.597 line to go along with a 13.2% strikeout rate. Put simply, opposing pitchers aren’t fooling these prospects, and there’s no real reason development-wise that they ought not be exposed to major-league pitching. That’s particularly true in light of the fact that the White Sox promoted low-ceiling prospect Ryan Cordell, while the Blue Jays selected Triple-A veteran Rowdy Tellez. Whatever good there is to say of these young players, any attempt to argue that they’ve done more to earn a promotion than Guerrero Jr. or Jimenez would require a staggering amount of cognitive dissonance.

These teams are clearly planning to restrain their top prospects within the confines of Triple-A until the third week of April 2019, regardless of how well they hit. That’s the point at which they’ll be guaranteed an additional year of team control that allows them to keep those future superstars around through the 2026 season rather than hit free agency after 2025. It’s a distinction that could potentially cost them eight figures in earning power apiece depending on how they develop in the majors.

The question I want to pose is, how do you feel about the overt suppression of service time to manipulate a player’s team control? (Poll link for app users)

 

Poll: Grading the Josh Donaldson Trade

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Perhaps the most significant trade that took place on the day of the August postseason eligibility trade deadline was the one that sent Josh Donaldson to the Indians. The former AL MVP has endured an injury-plagued season owing to his shoulder and calf, but made it back to the field on a rehab assignment just in time to be put through trade waivers and ultimately sent to Cleveland in exchange for salary relief and a player to be named later.

At the beginning of the 2018 season, it would have seemed unfathomable that the Jays would get so little value as a result of Donaldson’s departure. Few expected them to seriously contend amidst a division that features the Red Sox and Yankees, but if they had been competitive enough to keep Donaldson through season’s end, most would have bet heavily on an outcome in which he’d receive and reject a qualifying offer. That would have netted the Jays a first-round pick had he signed for $50MM or more elsewhere, a scenario that the majority of baseball enthusiasts also would have put money on. And certainly if you’d have told a pundit back in March that Toronto would fall out of competition by late July, they’d have been wondering which team gave up a top prospect in order to acquire him ahead of the non-waiver trade deadline.

The actual outcome was an awful bout of bad fortune for both Donaldson and the Jays, of course. He only stayed on the field enough to accrue 159 plate appearances, and his performance was inconsistent with his track record. Most readers of MLBTR will by now recognize .234/.333/.423 as Donaldson’s batting line so far in 2018, a far cry from the numbers he’d previously put up over the course of his tenure in Canada.

In no small part due to those factors, the receipt of a qualifying offer that once seemed a foregone conclusion for the 33-year-old became a decision clouded with doubt across the industry. The club certainly faced serious risk had they kept the slugger. A full return to form would have made it worth issuing him a one-year contract approaching $20MM, but a poor or even average performance would have forced the Blue Jays with a difficult choice: let their star third baseman walk for nothing or make him an exorbitant offer and thereby risk both a payroll albatross and 2019 roster crunch involving Vladimir Guerrero Jr.

Evidently, the Jays decided that the Tribe’s offer to pay $1.3MM of his remaining salary and fork over a young player presented a better alternative to taking such a risk. Reportedly, they’ll receive right-hander Julian Merryweather, who ranked as the club’s 15th-best prospect headed into the season prior to undergoing Tommy John surgery. One could certainly argue that Merryweather holds more upside and less risk than a late-first-round pick in next year’s draft, but his recent injury would make that a tough sell.

For that reason, some fans and reporters have chided the Jays for “giving Donaldson away”. That’s not literally the case, as anyone who wanted the three-time All-Star could have simply claimed him on waivers; all 29 rival teams opted to pass on that front). Still, one could look at the scenario as Toronto paying the Indians over $2MM to take Donaldson off their hands (though they’d have to assume that Merryweather has no value).

On the other hand, it’s perhaps a positive thing that the Jays were able to get Donaldson back on the field in time to reap any value at all from him. Though he’s absolutely raked during his rehab assignment in Cleveland, Toronto could have very easily watched Donaldson re-injure himself and thus been criticized by some fans for keeping him through September.

What do you think? How do you rate this trade from the Blue Jays’ perspective? (Poll link for app users)

Blue Jays Notes: Donaldson, Solarte, Atkins, Borucki

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The latest from Toronto…

  • Several teams, including contenders in the American League, contacted the league office in regards to the Josh Donaldson trade “either to express their dismay with the circumstances of the deal or seek clarification on why baseball allowed it,” The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal reports (subscription required).  The particular issue was Donaldson’s uncertain health status and the timing of his activation from the disabled list as a Blue Jay and his latest DL placement after joining the Indians, without any return to the field in between.  Prior to the deal, teams interested in Donaldson were issued a “buyer beware” warning by the league about his possible injured status, which stemmed from concerns Donaldson himself had about his bothersome calf, which he expressed to the MLBPA (via his agent).  After the union passed these concerns onto the league, Rosenthal reports that MLBPA officials also wondered how the trade was completed.  Donaldson’s worries, however, were alleviated after speaking to the Tribe on August 31, as Cleveland was given permission by the league to speak to the player once the general framework of the trade had been settled.
  • Infielder Yangervis Solarte has been activated from the disabled list, as per the Blue Jays’ PR department’s Twitter feed.  Solarte has missed just under a month due to right oblique injury suffered after an awkward swing.  Solarte has hit .233/.287/.397 over 471 PA in his first season in Toronto, and could be entering his final days with the team — the Jays are deep in young infield options, and may choose to buy out Solarte’s 2019 club option for $750K rather than bring him back at the full $5.5MM price.
  • General manager Ross Atkins is expected to receive a contract extension this winter, Sportsnet.ca’s Shi Davidi writes, as Atkins’ current contract only runs through the 2019 season.  This means that Atkins signed a four-year deal when first hired as Toronto’s GM in the 2015-16 offseason.  The contract length wasn’t reported at the time, and this new deal may also be handled with a modicum of fanfare, as Davidi predicts that an Atkins extension “likely takes place quietly behind the scenes and doesn’t get announced.”  Building off a recent interview with Jays president/CEO Mark Shapiro about the club’s offseason plans, Davidi’s piece also predicts some modest roster targets for the Blue Jays, such as at least one innings-eating veteran starter, and “some value-play additions to the bullpen” in the mold of the Seunghwan Oh and Tyler Clippard signings last winter.
  • In a separate piece from Davidi, he examines how the Blue Jays drafted and signed Ryan Borucki in 2012, an acquisition that may not have happened if Borucki hadn’t suffered a UCL tear while pitching for his high school team that spring.  Despite several injuries that hampered his early development, Borucki has turned into one of the club’s best young arms, and projects to be a member of the 2019 rotation after making his MLB debut this season.

Heyman’s Latest: Harvey, Reds, Brewers, Royals, Smoak, Orioles

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Even though the Reds are out of contention and right-hander Matt Harvey is a pending free agent, the club opted against trading him to the NL Central rival Brewers before last month’s waiver deadline. Milwaukee won the claim for Harvey, but it turns out the Brewers only offered “Triple-A non-prospects” for the 29-year-old, Jon Heyman of Fancred hears. Considering that, not to mention Reds owner Bob Castellini’s reported affinity for Harvey, Cincinnati kept the ex-Met and will likely try to prevent him from leaving via free agency. Pitching will be an area of focus in general for the Reds during the offseason, per Heyman, who adds they may also be on the lookout for one or two outfielders.

More rumblings from Heyman…

  • Royals general manager Dayton Moore said back in April that the team wants skipper Ned Yost around beyond this season. At 46-94, the Royals have since endured a horrific campaign. Nevertheless, Yost remains in their plans, Heyman reports, adding that they plan to offer him a one-year extension. Whether Yost wants to keep the job for 2019, when he’ll turn 64 years old, isn’t yet clear. Yost is in his ninth season as the Royals’ manager, with the team’s World Series title in 2015 serving as the crowning achievement of his tenure.
  • Blue Jays first baseman Justin Smoak cleared trade waivers last month, but “a couple teams” did check in on him and some of Toronto’s relievers, Heyman writes. That’s not surprising in Smoak’s case, as the switch-hitter’s amid a second straight strong offensive season and comes with another affordable year of team control in the form of an $8MM club option. Perhaps the clubs that have shown interest in him this season will circle back over the winter, then.
  • Earlier this summer, Orioles vice president of baseball operations Dan Duquette denied a report that the O’s had interviewed former Dodgers GM Ned Colletti for a front office position. However, an interview between one of Orioles owner Peter Angelos’ sons and Colletti did occur, according to Heyman. It’s still not known which position the two sides discussed, though, nor is it clear if Baltimore continues to have interest in Colletti. Notably, Duquette is about to reach the end of his contract – which could put the O’s in the market for a new baseball operations chief – but it’s not a lock he and the club will part ways, Heyman writes.

Blue Jays Outright Mike Hauschild

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The Blue Jays announced today that they have outrighted right-hander Mike Hauschild. He will not have the right to elect free agency, having never previously been outrighted, but will qualify as a minor-league free agent at season’s end unless returned to the 40-man roster.

Hauschild, 28, was designated recently after signing a MLB deal with the Toronto organization in early August. He opened the season with the Astros but was released in mid-season, ultimately appearing in only two MLB games with the Jays. Previously, he made four relief appearances in 2017 with the Rangers, who had selected him in the Rule 5 draft but later returned him to Houston.

All of that is to say that Hauschild has tasted the bigs but hasn’t spent enough time there to tell us much. He has spent much of the past two seasons at Triple-A, struggling on the whole and this year posting a marginal 4.90 ERA with 7.8 K/9 and 3.5 BB/9 in 119 1/3 innings. At times in the past, though, the former 33rd-rounder has turned in solid results in the upper minors.

Blue Jays Notes: Vlad Jr., Shapiro, Payroll

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With the Blue Jays wrapping up a disappointing campaign, there have been a few tense stories involving the organization in recent days. The end of Josh Donaldson’s tenure (link), the potential end of John Gibbons’s tenure (link), and the club’s decision not to promote super-prospect Vladimir Guerrero Jr. have all grabbed headlines. Even president/CEO Mark Shapiro has been in the rumor mill to an extent. All things considered, it made for an interesting media session for Shapiro today.

Here are some highlights from that Q&A, as covered by Shi Davidi of Sportsnet.ca:

  • Regarding Guerrero, as Davidi recently reported, the MLB Player’s Association shared some less-than-friendly thoughts on the matter. “The decision to not to [sic] bring him up is a business decision, not a baseball decision,” a spokesman told Davidi. “It’s bad for the Blue Jays, it’s bad for fans, it’s bad for players and it’s bad for the industry.” Shapiro, of course, had suggested otherwise in attempting to justify the club’s decision to send Guerrero to the Arizona Fall League. Now, Shapiro says in reference to a possible grievance action, he “welcome[s] that scrutiny.”
  • Shapiro pushed back on questions about his future by expressing an ongoing desire to continue in his position. That’s not to say that there are any guarantees as to how things will shake out over the coming offseason, but the veteran exec says he is “as, if not more, excited to be here” than at the outset of his tenure. “This is where I want to be, this is where I am, this is what I’m focused on, and really don’t need to think of anything else,” said Shapiro, who rejected some reporting suggesting problems between him and ownership.
  • Looking ahead more broadly, Shapiro seemingly acknowledged the factors that will likely lead to a payroll reduction without specifically agreeing that a slash was in mind. He said the club is “not going to be playing on Bryce Harper and Manny Machado” but will still “be active in free agency, where we have gaps and holes.” Though Shapiro says the goal is “to field a competitive team,” he also made clear that younger players will be given a chance to learn on the job. That’s “a double-edged sword,” he said, explaining: “playing young players leads to volatility. Volatility can be a great thing because there’s huge upside for those players, but it can also be a disappointing thing because there will be some young players that break your heart. The only way to find out about who a player is at the major-league level is to commit to that opportunity and to commit to those players. We’re embarking on that process now.”
  • As with the Guerrero situation, whether or not one believes the rationale, the effect is clear. In both cases, the Jays will evidently be taking steps that indicate a greater focus on the future. With respect to Guerrero, that means preserving as much future control as possible. With respect to payroll, both in terms of allocating MLB opportunities and setting salary levels, the club is obviously willing to accept greater near-term uncertainty at the major-league level. While that may be disappointing to some fans, it’s also arguably a defensible approach from the perspective of optimizing resources over the long haul, particularly given the ascendance of the two traditional divisional powers in the AL East. While the Blue Jays have just under $55MM committed to 2019 payroll (before arb raises), well shy of the team’s $160MM Opening Day salaries in each of the past two seasons, it’s also not clear that the roster is set up for a true drive for contention even with significant investments. That outlook could change quite a bit based upon how things develop with the team’s prospects and younger MLB assets, but whether and how will depend upon the 2019 campaign.

Josh Donaldson’s Agency Disputes Report Of Previous Extension Offer

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Earlier today, Fancred’s Jon Heyman reported that despite previous reports to the contrary, the Blue Jays did indeed make an extension offer to Josh Donaldson back in Spring Training — one that would have been worth more than Jake Arrieta’s three-year, $75MM free-agent deal with the Phillies. Per that report:

“[W]ord is the Jays extended an offer for more than the three-year, $75 million deal the Phillies gave to free agent pitcher Jake Arrieta, another major star older than 30. … However, word is that after Donaldson initially seemed willing to continue talks, bringing brief hope for a deal, ultimately his camp suggested a figure range that put the sides far apart enough that talks discontinued.”

Donaldson’s agent, Dan Lozano of the MVP Sports Group, took the extraordinarily rare measure of issuing an on-record statement disputing the report and questioning the motives behind it:

“Just as in February, when Jon Heyman mis-reported information ’according to friends’ of Josh Donaldson, he once again is incorrect regarding contract negotiations between Josh and the Blue Jays. The fact is that the team never extended an offer to Josh, no years or dollars were ever specifically discussed, and it’s unfair to Josh for someone to repeatedly misrepresent his business affairs citing their ’beliefs.’ This is not the first time Jon has been reckless in his reporting about an MVP Sports Group client, and I believe it’s clear his motivations have less to do with the truth than they do with his other agenda.”

Some may speculate on the possibility of semantics being utilized to downplay the reported talks here, but this type of statement from an agency — at least made in such a public, on-record manner — is rarely, if ever seen. The previous report alluded to in today’s statement from Lozano is in reference to a February report on Donaldson’s asking price in extension talks which cited “friends” of Donaldson. Donaldson felt strongly enough about the report to dispute the matter directly on Twitter.

Today’s drama aside, it’s been a nightmare of a season for Donaldson, who was recently traded to the Indians in exchange for a player to be named later — widely reported to be righty Julian Merryweather — despite the fact that he hasn’t played a game since late May due to a calf injury. Shoulder problems also shelved Donaldson early in the season and impacted his ability to throw across the diamond even when he was on the field. The earning power that Donaldson once had, when he was viewed as a potential candidate for a nine-figure contract, has largely dried up as a result. While he’ll still undoubtedly find plenty of interest this offseason, the question of whether he’ll even receive multi-year offers is up for debate. Of course, none of that was known when contract negotiations — such as they were — took place before the start of the season.

Managerial/Coaching Notes: Gibbons, Riggleman, Rangers

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Just weeks after Ken Rosenthal wrote that the Blue Jays “seem destined” for a managerial change this offseason, Fancred’s Jon Heyman offers a similar take, reporting that a changing of the guard is a virtual certainty. Per Heyman, it’s “99.9 percent” that the Jays will move on from skipper John Gibbons, who is still signed through the 2019 season. Gibbons tells Heyman the plan is to sit down with the Jays after the season and “see what direction we’re going to go, myself included,” though he’s previously suggested that he may not be the man to oversee a rebuilding effort. Whether the Jays go that route remains to be seen, though Heyman indicates that president Mark Shapiro and GM Ross Atkins are leaning toward a younger manager with an eye toward contending in 2020-21.

More rumors pertaining to the managerial and coaching staffs throughout the league…

  • Jim Riggleman hasn’t spoken to the Reds’ front office yet about shedding the interim label from his job title, John Fay of the Cincinnati Enquirer recently wrote. Though Cincinnati has performed better under Riggleman than under Bryan Price earlier this season, Riggleman told Fay he still expects to be one of many candidates. “When the change was made, Dick [Williams] was the GM,” said Riggleman.“He basically said we’re going to interview a lot of people and have a long list. … My understanding is that’s what’s going to happen.” Fay notes that Riggleman is a favorite of team owner Bob Castellini, suggesting that if the Reds go with a more “old school” approach in the dugout, Riggleman is the favorite to stay with the Reds on a more permanent basis. The organization has become more analytical under the current front office regime, though, and it’s not clear what style of manager they’d prefer.
  • It’s been an ugly season for the Rangers for the most part, though Drew Davison of the Fort Worth Star-Telegram writes that GM Jon Daniels and his staff are drawing some positives from the manner in which their coaching staff has helped a few younger players move forward. Rougned Odor’s rebound season was one positive highlighted by Daniels, who also listed Jose Leclerc, Isiah Kiner-Falefa, Ronald Guzman and Jurickson Profar as some players who’ve taken positive strides in an otherwise disappointing season. Davison notes that “signs seemingly point to job security for manager Jeff Banister,” who is currently signed only through next year after a 2019 club option was exercised last offseason. It’s not clear whether the Rangers front office has its sights set on a new deal for Banister or whether he could potentially head into next year’s season with the dreaded “lame duck” status.

Blue Jays Will Reportedly Acquire Julian Merryweather As PTBNL In Josh Donaldson Trade

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The Blue Jays will acquire right-hander Julian Merryweather as the player to be named later in the Josh Donaldson trade, tweets Fancred’s Jon Heyman. Paul Hoynes of Cleveland.com tweeted at the time of the deal that Merryweather “was rumored” to eventually be Toronto-bound, while Sportsnet’s Shi Davidi tweeted more recently that Merryweather “is expected” to eventually be announced as the PTBNL.

An official announcement doesn’t seem likely to happen until after the season. The 26-year-old Merryweather underwent Tommy John surgery during Spring Training and has spent the season on the minor league disabled list. Because he’s not healthy enough to begin a rehab assignment, he won’t be passed through waivers before the end of the season, so it seems that a formal announcement could yet be more than a month away.

Prior to the 2018 season, Baseball America ranked Merryweather 17th among Indians farmhands, praising a fastball that reaches 97 mph with regularity, an above-average but inconsistent changeup and another pair of potentially average breaking pitches (slider, curve).

Merryweather breezed through Double-A last year as a 25-year-old, pitching to a 3.38 ERA with a 52-to-10 K/BB ratio and a 48.9 percent ground-ball rate in 50 2/3 innings. He was too homer-prone in a later stint at Triple-A, leading to a 6.58 ERA, but his K/BB numbers and ground-ball tendencies remained strong. Fangraphs’ Eric Longenhagen wrote shortly after his promotion to Triple-A last year that both his changeup and curveball could be plus offerings, calling Merryweather a potential mid-rotation starter.

While the Blue Jays will assuredly exercise caution when working Merryweather back from Tommy John surgery next spring, he’ll give the team an arm that could help either in the bullpen or in the rotation as soon as next summer. And, because Merryweather didn’t spent the 2018 season on the Major League disabled list, he didn’t accrue any MLB service time and will thus remain controllable through at least the 2024 season — if not the 2025 campaign.

That proximity to the Majors, it seems, was enough for the Jays to deem Merryweather a more appealing and more valuable piece than the draft pick they’d have received upon extending a qualifying offer to Donaldson and allowing him to test free agency. (Indeed, GM Ross Atkins told Sportsnet’s Arash Madani that the PTBNL is someone the organization considers to be an “exciting upper-level talent.”) It’s also possible, perhaps even likely, that the team simply didn’t feel comfortable making that type of offer to Donaldson on the heels of his injury-ruined season — especially with wunderkind Vladimir Guerrero Jr. waiting in the wings to hold down third base for the foreseeable future.

Blue Jays Select Jonathan Davis, Designate Mike Hauschild

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The Blue Jays announced today that they have selected the contract of outfielder Jonathan Davis. In a corresponding move, righty Mike Hauschild was designated for assignment.

In other promotions, the club has called up outfielder Dwight Smith Jr., infielder Richard Urena, and first baseman Rowdy Tellez. All were already on the 40-man roster, so no further moves were needed.

Davis, a 15th-round pick in the 2013 draft, will get his first promotion after turning in mixed results in the upper minors. Though he had an impress showing at Double-A, Davis has only managed a .249/.308/.389 slash in his 202 plate appearances at the highest level of the minors. He did, however, turn in his third-straight minor-league season with at least ten home runs and twenty steals.

As for the 28-year-old Hauschild, he has seen limited MLB action over the past two seasons. At Triple-A this year, with the Houston and Toronto organizations, he has worked to a cumulative 4.90 ERA with 7.8 K/9 and 3.5 BB/9 over 119 1/3 innings.

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