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Blue Jays’ Shapiro On Guerrero Jr.: “I Think We’re Going To Extend Him”

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Vladimir Guerrero Jr.’s self-imposed deadline for an extension — the first full day of spring training — came and went more than a month ago, with no deal coming to fruition. Guerrero has left the door slightly cracked, indicating that while he doesn’t plan to negotiate any further, he’d be amenable to hearing the Jays out if they presented a new offer. That mindset is all the more notable now, given that Jays CEO Mark Shapiro flatly stated this morning that he expects to eventually agree to an extension with the team’s star first baseman (via Sportsnet’s Shi Davidi). Said Shapiro:

“…I guess my overarching feeling is one of optimism. I think we’re going to sign him. I think we’re going to extend him. The reason I feel that way is because we have such a clear alignment on the desired outcome. Vlad wants to play his whole career as a Toronto Blue Jay. We want him to end his career in a Blue Jays uniform to be a true legacy player for the Toronto Blue Jays. … Could be before free agency, could be during free agency, but I’m optimistic we will sign him.”

Guerrero himself reacted to Shapiro’s comments, per Hazel Mae and Shi Davidi of Sportsnet: “I’ve always felt good about the whole thing. I’m good with that. Just going to keep working very hard and be optimistic, too. Not going to shut the door on them… I’ll be open. But I’m going to leave that to my agents to work with that. If there’s something there, they’re going to continue to work with that. I’m just going to be on the field, focusing on my teammates, on my team, on my game.”

Details surrounding both Guerrero’s asking price and the Blue Jays’ most recent offer have trickled out in the weeks since his deadline passed. Guerrero himself made clear he wasn’t seeking anything close to Juan Soto’s $765MM guarantee with the Mets; he sought under $600MM in guaranteed money over a 14- or 15-year deal. Subsequent reporting from Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic, Jon Heyman and Joel Sherman of the New York Post, and Davidi shed further light on negotiations. Guerrero reportedly sought a net-present value of $500MM, and while the Jays are said to have offered a figure close to $500MM, deferred money pushed the present-day value down closer to $450MM.

Though that paints a broad picture of where things stand, Shapiro cautioned today (without citing specifically reported numbers) that the gap isn’t quite as straightforward as the ostensible $50MM separating the reported offer and asking price. “That’s an oversimplification based upon only part of the information,” Shapiro said (via MLB.com’s Keegan Mattheson).

Shapiro’s candor and optimistic tone on eventually hammering out a long-term deal come not long after Hector Gomez of the Dominican Republic’s Z101 Sports reported that the Jays are preparing a new offer for Guerrero. While it’s still not clear whether a new offer will be made prior to Opening Day, Shapiro’s comments do lend some credence to the idea that a new proposal could be forthcoming before long.

Despite the fact that he just turned 26 this past Sunday, Guerrero is entering his final season of club control. He’ll earn $28.5MM in 2025 after avoiding arbitration this winter. He’ll be a year older than Soto was when Soto hit the market, but Guerrero is nevertheless poised to reach free agency with a rare blend of youth and premium offensive track record.

Although the first two seasons of Guerrero’s career — his age-20 and age-21 efforts — were “only” a bit above average, he broke out with an MVP-caliber performance in 2021. His 2022-23 production was very strong but not quite up to that 2021 standard. He bounced back to elite levels in 2024. Overall, since that 2021 breakout, Guerrero has turned in a monstrous .293/.370/.517 batting line with 136 home runs in 2783 plate appearances — about 45% better than league average, by measure of wRC+.

Guerrero delivered nearly unrivaled batted-ball and bat speed grades last year while turning in a career-low 13.8% strikeout rate against a 10.3% walk rate that sits as the second-highest mark of his big league tenure. Per Statcast, he ranked in at least the 91st percentile of MLB hitters in barrel rate (91st percentile), bat speed (95th), hard-hit rate (97th), average exit velocity (98th), expected slugging percentage (98th) and expected wOBA (98th). No hitter in MLB had a higher maximum exit velocity or expected batting average.

Guerrero has also been extremely durable, trailing only Marcus Semien in total plate appearances since 2021. In that same span, he’s tied with Yordan Alvarez for the sixth-most homers in MLB and also sits sixth with 405 runs driven in. Guerrero ranks 10th in batting average, 11th in on-base percentage and 13th in slugging percentage over the past four years. Defense and baserunning are obvious strikes against him, but Guerrero has been one of MLB’s ten best hitters in the aggregate since Opening Day 2021 — including two seasons where he’s been flat-out elite.

Based on Guerrero’s premium bat-to-ball skills, bat speed and batted-ball metrics, there’s little reason to expect him to markedly decline in the near future. As with any mega-deal, the latter half of the contract is likely to be painful, but that’s generally accepted as the cost of doing business when signing star-caliber players of this nature in the heart of their prime.

Managers & Top Front Office Executives On Expiring Contracts

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Several teams don’t publicize contract details for their top front office executives or even for their managers, so this list of skipper and execs (any head of a baseball operations department, whether titled as a president of baseball ops, general manager, chief baseball officer, etc.) entering the final year of their deals may not be entirely complete or accurate.  Still, since MLBTR so often focuses on players entering their “contract year,” this post provides a rough outline of which notable team personnel may be feeling some extra pressure as their own deals may be close to expiring.

It is quite possible some of these names may have already quietly signed extensions weeks or months ago, or will sign new deals during Spring Training once clubs turn their attention away from offseason roster-building.  A shorter-term extension may not necessarily indicate much extra job security, as some teams tack an extra year (or at least a club option) onto an executive or managerial contract just to avoid the appearance of that person entering a lame-duck year.  Of course, even a longer contract is no guarantee of job security, as a rough season can instantly put a manager or a front office on the hot seat.

As always, thanks to Cot’s Baseball Contracts for reference information on some of these contract terms.

Angels: Ron Washington is already heading into the final season under contract, as he signed only a two-year deal to manage the Halos in November 2023.  While the Angels were only 63-99 last season, it could hardly be considered Washington’s fault given the subpar state of the roster.  Expectations will be higher in 2025 since the team has been aggressing in adding talent this winter, and since GM Perry Minasian got a contract extension last August, Los Angeles might also look to add a year onto Washington’s deal to at least keep him on line with the guaranteed portion of Minasian’s new contract.  It should be noted that Washington turns 73 this coming April, so he might also prefer to just take things year-to-year if he has any thoughts about retirement.

Astros: Dana Brown is entering his third season as Houston’s GM, and the terms of his contract weren’t made public when he was hired in January 2023.  It is possible Brown might only be working on a three-year deal since his predecessor James Click also received just a three-year commitment, though Click was hired in the singular aftermath of the Astros’ sign-stealing scandal.  This probably isn’t a situation to monitor too closely since the Astros have kept winning during Brown’s tenure, with the caveat that owner Jim Crane and his advisors are known to weigh heavily on baseball operations decisions.  Click was let go within days of winning a World Series due to reported acrimony with Crane, but there hasn’t been any indication of any heat between Crane and Brown.

Athletics: Mark Kotsay’s initial contract covered the 2022-24 seasons, and the A’s picked up Kotsay’s 2025 club option over a year ago.  GM David Forst said in October that “there’s no one I would rather have managing this team,” and that Kotsay “wants to be here,” though there hasn’t been any public word about any extension talks.  As comfortable as Kotsay seems with the organization, it is possible he might be willing to let the season play out and then explore his options, if he has any uncertainty over continuing to manage the A’s through their stint in West Sacramento before their planned move to Las Vegas for the 2028 season.  While no public details were revealed about Forst’s latest contract, the GM has obviously signed some kind of extension since his last deal expired after the 2023 season, and said in November that “I’ve been here for 25 years.  There’s not a thought that I wouldn’t be in this for the long run.”

Blue Jays: Manager John Schneider is entering the last guaranteed season of his three-year contract, as the Blue Jays hold a club option on Schneider for 2026.  It is fair to guess that the Jays might not exercise that option too far in advance, as there is widespread speculation that another disappointing season (or even a slow start) will cost Schneider his job.  The same could be true of general manager Ross Atkins, even though Atkins is under contract through 2026.  Team president Mark Shapiro is also entering the final season of his five-year contract, and while Shapiro’s focus has been more towards bigger-picture projects like Rogers Centre’s renovations, his possible departure might also trigger a larger overhaul unless the Jays turn things around on the field in 2025.

Braves: Manager Brian Snitker is entering the last year of his contract, so the Braves might well look to tack at least one more season onto Snitker’s deal this spring.  Snitker has led Atlanta to the postseason in each of the last seven seasons, highlighted by the team’s World Series victory in 2021.  He has stuck to just shorter-term deals and extensions during his tenure, which is probably due more to his age (Snitker turned 69 in October) than any dissatisfaction on the organization’s part, so no change seems imminent in the Braves dugout.

Cardinals: John Mozeliak’s exit plan is already in place.  The longtime head of the St. Louis front office is stepping down after the 2025 season, with Chaim Bloom already inked to a long-term contract to become the Cardinals’ next president of baseball operations.

Cubs: The Cubs have posted 83-79 records in each of the last two seasons, but they still haven’t reached the postseason during Jed Hoyer’s four-year tenure as president of baseball operations.  2025 is the last year of Hoyer’s original five-year contract, and acquiring Kyle Tucker (who is a free agent next winter) in a big-ticket trade might indicate that Hoyer is feeling some heat to win as soon as possible.  It can be argued that Hoyer has been somewhat hamstrung by ownership’s reluctance to spend at the top of the market, but that might also indicate that ownership could be considering hiring a PBO with more experience in building contenders on limited budgets.

Dodgers: Reports surfaced earlier today that the Dodgers are planning to work out an extension with Dave Roberts, as the skipper is entering the last season of his last three-year extension with the club.  It comes as no surprise that L.A. wants to retain Roberts in the wake of the team’s second World Series title during his tenure, and it stands to reason that president of baseball operations Andrew Friedman is also a candidate for a new deal, perhaps regardless of the terms of his last agreement.  Friedman came to the Dodgers on a five-year deal in October 2014, then signed an extension of an unknown length in November 2019.  If that next contract was another five-year pact, Friedman is a technically free agent right now, but there has no zero indication that Friedman (who has been as busy as ever in bolstering the Dodgers roster this winter) is going anywhere.

Guardians: This is a speculative entry since it has been well over a decade since Chris Antonetti’s contract terms were publicly reported.  Even if he is approaching the end of his current deal, there hasn’t been any sense that the Guardians are planning a front office change, especially not in the wake of another AL Central crown and a trip to the ALCS.  Antonetti has been a member of Cleveland’s front office since 1999, and in his current role as president of baseball operations since October 2015.

Mariners: Jerry Dipoto has been extended twice since the M’s first hired him in September 2015, and his last extension in September 2021 was a multi-year deal of unspecified length.  It is therefore possible this could be Dipoto’s final season under contract as Seattle’s president of baseball operations, unless another extension has been signed in the last three-plus years.  Despite four straight seasons of 85 or more wins, the Mariners reached the playoffs just once in that span, as a lack of hitting has hampered the team over the last two years in particular.  It remains to be seen if ownership is okay with just being competitive (or, as Dipoto infamously put it, winning “54 percent of the time“) or if any impatience is growing over the Mariners’ difficulty in truly breaking through as a contender.  The Mariners were sparked to a 21-13 record down the stretch after manager Dan Wilson was hired last August, so it could be that the managerial change (and a change of hitting coaches) is what was needed to get the M’s back on track, but Dipoto and Wilson could both face pressure if Seattle again falls short of postseason baseball.

Orioles: Mike Elias has been Baltimore’s GM for six seasons, though his contract terms haven’t been made public at any point during his tenure.  Manager Brandon Hyde signed a three-year deal when first hired prior to the 2019 season, and he has signed at least one or perhaps two extensions since, leaving his contract status a bit of a mystery.  This is another situation where job security probably isn’t an issue, as the Orioles have come out of their rebuild to reach the playoffs in back-to-back years, even if the club has yet to record even a single postseason win in that span.  New owner David Rubenstein is eager to win but hasn’t shown any inclination to changing the leadership structure since he bought the Orioles earlier this year.

Pirates: Ben Cherington has now completed five full seasons as the Buccos’ general manager, so he either signed a somewhat unusually long contract when first hired, or he has already inked one extension that has escaped public attention.  Pittsburgh fans are impatiently waiting for the first winning season of Cherington’s tenure, as the team has flirted with contention in each of the last two years before finishing with identical 76-86 records.  Paul Skenes has at least emerged as the crown jewel of the Pirates’ lengthy rebuild process, so regardless of Cherington’s contract terms, it doesn’t appear as though he is in any danger of being fired.

Rangers: Bruce Bochy’s return to managing saw him sign a three-year contract with Texas, so 2025 represents the final year of that deal.  Bochy turns 70 in April but didn’t give any hints about retiring when speaking to reporters at the end of the season.  A second straight losing season might change the equation either on Bochy’s end or on the front office’s end, but the Rangers’ 2023 World Series title (to say nothing of Bochy’s three previous rings as the Giants’ manager) has naturally brought him a lot of leeway within the organization.  Both sides might prefer to go year-to-year just to maintain flexibility, but it wouldn’t be surprising if Bochy soon gets another year added to his contract.

Rockies: Bud Black has signed three straight one-year extensions to remain as Colorado’s manager, and past reports have indicated that Black is on something of an unofficial year-to-year rolling contract with the organization.  It is perhaps notable that Black’s most recent deal wasn’t finalized until this past October, whereas his previous two extensions were completed prior to the start of the seasons.  This might indicate that ownership and/or Black himself are starting to think harder about continuing the relationship in the wake of six straight losing seasons, even despite the Rockies’ well-known penchant for staying loyal to long-term employees.  The same logic could extend to GM Bill Schmidt, though Schmidt’s contract terms haven’t been known since he was elevated to the full-time general manager position in October 2021.

Royals: Matt Quatraro is entering the final guaranteed year of his initial three-year contract as manager, though the Royals have a club option on his services for the 2026 season.  J.J. Picollo has also completed two full seasons as the team’s general manager since being elevated to top of Kansas City’s baseball ops ladder in September 2022, though his contract status in the wake of that promotion wasn’t known.  Regardless, it doesn’t seem like either is going anywhere, and extensions could be in order since the Royals enjoyed an 86-win season and a return to the playoffs last year, including a wild card series win over the Orioles.

Tigers: Likewise, Detroit is also coming off a playoff appearance and a wild card series victory, as a magical late-season surge left the Tigers just one game short of the ALCS.  It is therefore safe to assume that president of baseball operations Scott Harris has plenty of job security, and while his contract terms aren’t known, it is probably safe to assume Harris received more than a three-year guarantee when he was hired in September 2022.

Twins: Some larger-scale changes could be afoot in Minnesota since the Pohlad family is exploring selling the Twins, and some shuffling in the front office has already taken place, with president of baseball ops Derek Falvey also becoming the president of business operations and Jeremy Zoll replacing Thad Levine as general manager.  Falvey’s previous deal was up after the 2024 season so obviously he signed an extension, but while manager Rocco Baldelli’s previous extension is known to have run through at least the end of the 2025 campaign, it is unclear if the coming season is the final year of that deal.  If Baldelli is indeed heading into a lame-duck year, the ownership situation might prevent the skipper from getting at least another season added to his deal, just so a new owner could potentially have a clean slate in evaluating things once they take over the team.

White Sox: This is more of a speculative entry, just because Chris Getz’s contract terms weren’t released when he was named Chicago’s general manager in August 2023.  A GM wouldn’t normally be considered to be on the hot seat so soon after being hired, nor are immediate results expected since the White Sox are quite obviously going through a hefty rebuild.  While nobody expected the Sox to contend in 2024, however, there’s a difference between just being a losing team and having a league-record 121 losses.  Another embarrassment of a season might give owner Jerry Reinsdorf second thoughts about Getz’s stewardship of the rebuild effort, or the possibility exists that Reinsdorf could sell the team, which should shake the organization up entirely.

Yankees: Aaron Boone quieted some of his critics when the Yankees both returned to the postseason, and captured the first AL pennant of Boone’s seven-year stint as the Bronx manager.  This result led the Yankees to exercise their club option on Boone’s services for 2025, and while no negotiations had taken place about a longer-term deal as of early November, it stands to reason that some talks will take place before Opening Day.  Then again, Boone’s current deal wasn’t signed until after he’d already completed the final season his previous contract, so it could be that the Yankees will again play wait-and-see.  There isn’t much sense that Boone is in jeopardy, and while expectations are always high in New York, ownership’s loyalty to Boone through some relative lean years would make it unusual if he was let go so soon after a World Series appearance.

Ross Atkins Will Return As Blue Jays’ General Manager In 2025

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11:00am: Atkins revealed during his own media availability that bench coach and offensive coordinator Don Mattingly will no longer oversee the team’s offense; he’ll fill a “more traditional” bench coach role. Between the change in Mattingly’s role and the reported firing of hitting coach Guillermo Martinez — which Atkins confirmed — the team will conduct an external search to bring in new voice to oversee the team’s offense.

10:15am: Blue Jays team president Mark Shapiro is currently meeting with the media on the heels of a season he described as a “bitter disappointment” and announced that Ross Atkins will return as the team’s general manager for the 2025 season. “There won’t be a change with Ross,” said Shapiro. (Readers can watch the live press conference via Sportsnet.) The 2024 season was Atkins’ ninth season as Toronto’s general manager after spending 14 seasons as an integral part of Cleveland’s player development department. He signed a five-year contract extension covering the 2022-26 seasons back in April of 2021.

This past season was indeed a disaster for the Jays, who finished out the season at 74-88 — last place in the American League East. The Blue Jays made a spirited run at Shohei Ohtani in free agency last offseason but added primarily complementary pieces after he signed a ten-year deal with the Dodgers. The Toronto front office inked Isiah Kiner-Falefa and Yariel Rodriguez to multi-year contracts, also adding veterans Justin Turner and Kevin Kiermaier on one-year deals (Kiermaier’s second one-year pact with the Jays).

Depth proved to be an Achilles heel for the Jays as injuries mounted. Bo Bichette endured multiple IL stints and was limited to half a season’s worth of uncharacteristically feeble production at the plate. Alek Manoah underwent UCL surgery. Closer Jordan Romano pitched just 13 2/3 rough innings before undergoing arthroscopic elbow surgery. Top prospects Orelvis Martinez (PED suspension) and Ricky Tiedemann (Tommy John surgery) had lost seasons. Meanwhile, key veterans like Kiermaier, George Springer, Danny Jansen, Erik Swanson, Tim Mayza and others turned in performances that were not commensurate with their prior standards. The Jays turned to a host of in-house stopgaps but, particularly in the bullpen, were unable to piece together a serviceable performance.

The end result saw Jansen, Kiner-Falefa, Yusei Kikuchi, Yimi Garcia and Nate Pearson all traded away in deadline swaps for younger talent. The Jays were universally praised for a strong return on Kikuchi, an impending free agent. However, that’s at best a silver lining when considering the team entered the 2024 campaign looking to build on last year’s Wild Card berth into the playoffs and was viewed as a legitimate contender in a deep AL East division.

Heading into the 2025 season, it’ll be incumbent upon Shapiro and Atkins to engineer an immediate turnaround, lest the calls for changes in leadership grow even louder. Asked about the club’s payroll outlook for the ’25 campaign, Shapiro demurred, calling it “early” to ask such a question and suggesting that next month’s GM Meetings or even December’s Winter Meetings would be a time at which he could offer a clearer answer. For now, the club’s president merely suggested he didn’t anticipate player payroll rising or decreasing in a significant manner.

If that’s indeed the case, Atkins will have his work cut out for him. The Jays entered the 2024 season with a club-record $225MM Opening Day payroll. RosterResource currently pegs them for just shy of $125MM in 2025 commitments, not including an arbitration class projected by MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz to cost more than $61MM in total. Add in a slate of league-minimum players to round out the roster, and the Jays are at just over $194MM. There are some likely non-tenders in this offseason’s class of arbitration-eligible players, but the group is headlined by Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and his projected $29.6MM salary, with notable paydays projected for Romano ($7.75MM), Daulton Varsho ($7.7MM) and Alejandro Kirk ($4.1MM) as well.

Asked multiple times about Guerrero’s future, Shapiro generally sidestepped the question. The slugger is entering his final season of club control before potentially becoming one of the most coveted free agents in recent memory. Manager John Schneider recently touted Guerrero as a generational talent. Asked today whether he agreed with that assessment, Shapiro questioned the definition of what constitutes a generational player and suggested that it’s tough to say right now, noting that Guerrero has the “potential” to become such a player but implying that such a label can’t be placed on him this early in his career.

Atkins spoke more directly on the matter of Guerrero’s future, suggesting that ownership will provide the support to make long-term commitments to both Guerrero and Bichette. That doesn’t guarantee an extension for either player will happen, of course, and Atkins noted that it’s “difficult” to construct a contract of such magnitude for even one player — let alone two players. Still, he voiced confidence that the Jays can support long-term deals for both and still have the resources needed to build a competitive roster around what would presumably be a pair of substantial contracts.

With regard to the forthcoming offseason, Atkins spoke generally about the need to be “more aggressive” with external additions to the roster than the Blue Jays were this past offseason, specifically in the bullpen. He also called adding a power bat “low-hanging fruit” but also noted that it’s not as simple as adding a pure slugger, citing a need to look at contact ability, on-base skills, and strengths against specific pitch types.

Asked whether the aforementioned Rodriguez and Bowden Francis have pitched well enough to solidify their spots in the rotation next season, Atkins praised both pitchers for the job they did in the season’s second half. The Jays will be in the market for both depth and “impact” starting pitching, per Atkins, but with Kevin Gausman, Jose Berrios, Chris Bassitt, Rodriguez and Francis all in the fold, the GM said he feels fortunate to not feel a dire need to be in the market for a top free-agent starter.

The manner in which the Jays will pursue upgrades was left fairly open-ended. Both Atkins and Shapiro spoke favorably of the 13 young players Toronto acquired at this season’s trade deadline. Atkins acknowledged that while many of those players are viewed as potential near-term contributors, that influx of talent into the system also opens the door for potential trades involving some of those same prospects. The Blue Jays will explore both the free agent and trade markets as they look to revamp the roster, but it’s clear from both men’s comments today that the club does not plan to take any kind of step back and will endeavor to put a playoff contender on the field next year. That much has been reported at various points since the deadline, but today’s on-record commitment to such an approach from the team’s top two decision-makers is nevertheless notable.

Blue Jays President Mark Shapiro Discusses Team’s Future

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In the midst of a season that has been an unmitigated disappointment for Blue Jays fans where the club has fallen to last place in the AL East and sold off pieces at the trade deadline, club president and CEO Mark Shapiro spoke to reporters including Sportsnet’s Ben Nicholson-Smith and MLB.com’s Keegan Matheson about the club’s plans for 2025 and beyond.

Shapiro did not mince words while describing the organization’s failures this season and acknowledged that the team’s performance this year has represented the “biggest disconnect from expectations” he’s overseen during his tenure at the helm of the club, which began in August of 2015. Even as he called this season the “biggest disappointment” of his time in Toronto, however, Shapiro seemed disinclined to entertain parting ways with GM Ross Atkins. While he prefaced his comments by emphasizing that he does not comment on his employees’ job statuses while the season is ongoing, he also made a general case for continuity within the organization:

“I’m a huge believer in stability and continuity and those are competitive advantages in professional sports,” Shapiro said, as relayed by Matheson. “Reacting and changing don’t necessarily mean improvement. We need to be better. We have to be better. Stability, continuity and making adjustments are where I’m focused right now.”

Parting ways with Atkins, who has been the club’s GM in each of Shapiro’s nine seasons at the helm in Toronto, would certainly be considered a move away from that message of continuity and stability. The Jays have seen some success with the duo of Shapiro and Atkins making decisions, as they’ve made the playoffs in four of their nine seasons with the club. The team only advanced beyond the Wild Card round of the postseason once, however, and that came all the way back in 2016 during their first season with the club.

Since then, the Blue Jays rebuilt and constructed a young core centered around stars Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Bo Bichette before supplementing that group with veterans such as George Springer and Kevin Gausman. Solid as that strategy may have seemed on paper, however, the results on the field have left something to be desired for a club that has failed to win the competitive AL East even once while going 423-338 since the 2019 season where Guerrero made his MLB debut. Now, both Guerrero and Bichette are entering their final seasons of arbitration eligibility, and the possibility of losing one or both in free agency next winter looms as a distinct possibility.

Of course, it’s possible that Toronto could ink one or both of their stars to an extension before they leave town. Shapiro declined to comment on the possibility of extending specific players, though he did acknowledge that it’s “certainly easier” to build a championship-level roster with players of Guerrero’s and Bichette’s caliber in the fold “for extended periods of time.”

An extension for either player would surely require a considerable financial investment, however. Guerrero in particular has re-established himself as one of the league’s premiere offensive talents this year with a fantastic .317/.391/.537 slash line, 29 doubles, and 22 homers in 112 games this year. With the slugging superstar set to hit free agency following his age-26 season next year, he appears to be in good position to cash in on a significant payday in free agency.

On the other hand, Bichette has dealt with injuries and under-performance this year as he’s been limited to 79 games while slashing just .223/.276/.321. With that being said, he’ll be coming off his age-27 campaign when he’s expected to reach free agency next winter and that combination of youth, a strong offensive track record (he was a career 127 wRC+ hitter entering the 2024 campaign), and his ability to play a premium defensive position should allow the shortstop to do quite well in free agency as long as he rebounds to something closer to his previous career levels in 2025.

Fortunately, the club figures to have plenty of payroll flexibility this winter with which they can look to sign the pair long-term while retooling the rest of the roster. The club’s final payroll is expected to land (per RosterResource) just over $218MM, with their estimated payroll for luxury tax purposes sitting just over $241MM. That’s a little more than $4MM over the first threshold of the competitive balance tax, although it’s worth noting that publicly available payroll estimates are just that. For his part, Shapiro suggested (per Matheson) that the Jays currently expect to come in under that $237MM threshold though he did acknowledge that the situation is “fluid.”

Regardless of where the club ends up in terms of final luxury tax calculations this year, they have plenty of money coming off the books this winter. RosterResource indicates that they have just over $124MM committed for 2025, and while arbitration raises for players like Guerrero and Daulton Varsho figure to push that figure up significantly—the Jays’ 2024 arb class cost the club just over $44MM—even that would leave the club with a payroll in the $170MM range, giving them around $50MM to work with this winter if they match this year’s payroll in 2025. Shapiro was vague about Toronto’s exact plans in terms of payroll for next year, however. While he did say that he doesn’t expect there to be a “large-scale pullback” in payroll, he also notes that the difficult season has impacted the club on the business side of things.

Of course, long-term deals for Bichette and Guerrero wouldn’t necessarily impact 2025’s payroll given that Bichette is already under contract for $17.5MM next year while Guerrero is already expected to command a hefty salary in his final trip through arbitration. That being said, if the Jays have their sights set on retaining either or both of their homegrown duo long-term, it’s easy to see that impacting the club’s willingness to sign other top-of-the-market talents to long-term deals this winter. That could create a complicated puzzle for the club as they attempt to return to contention next year while balancing an apparent desire to retain Guerrero and Bichette long-term against the need for significant upgrades to the current roster.

Mark Shapiro Discusses Upcoming Blue Jays Offseason

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The Blue Jays made the playoffs for the third time in the past four years but each trip resulted in a hasty 2-0 playoff sweep. The club’s president/CEO Mark Shapiro spoke to the media today, with Ben Nicholson-Smith of Sportsnet among those to relay the information. While Shapiro touched on a number of topics, the key takeaways broadly involve continuity, with the club planning to retain Ross Atkins as general manager and keep the 2024 payroll at a similar level to 2023.

The 2023 Jays club was constructed differently than the 2022 version. Offensive outfielders Teoscar Hernández and Lourdes Gurriel Jr. were traded as glove-first players Kevin Kiermaier and Daulton Varsho were brought in. This had the expected result of the club faring better at run prevention but often struggling to score runs. In 2022, they finished fourth out of the 30 clubs in terms of plating runs but fell to a tie for 14th this year. But in terms of keeping runs off the board, they went from 13th to fifth. The overall effect was close to net neutral, as the club’s win tally fell from 92 to 89 but was still strong enough to get them back to the postseason, with the aforementioned quick exit.

It seems the club is satisfied enough with the regular season results to allow Atkins to continue in his role as general manager, a job he has held since the end of 2015. The club made the playoffs in 2016, advancing as far as the ALCS, before undergoing a quick rebuild with three losing seasons from 2017 to 2019. They started pushing their top prospects to the majors in that time, with Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Bo Bichette the most highly touted.

That led to the club making the playoffs in the shortened 2020 season, narrowly missing in 2021 despite winning 91 games, before getting back to the playoffs in the two most recent years. The lack of postseason success is surely frustrating for some fans, but the regular season results have been quite strong for four straight years in arguably the toughest division in the league, making it fairly logical that the club isn’t leaning towards huge changes.

“Ross needs to get better, but he’s done a good job,” Shapiro said today, adding that offense and baserunning are areas for potential improvement, as well as “communication of transparency” with players and staff.

Adding offense this winter will be a challenge since the free agent class is heavy on pitching and generally lighter on impact bats, but it sounds like the Jays should have some resources to attack the problem. Roster Resource calculates their 2023 payroll at $214MM and their competitive balance tax number at $248MM, their first time paying the luxury tax. There are some notable contracts coming off the books, including those of Hyun Jin Ryu, Matt Chapman, Brandon Belt and Kiermaier, with Whit Merrifield likely to be departing as well since mutual options are rarely picked up by both sides.

RR estimates the club’s 2024 payroll at $115MM right now, though a hefty arbitration class could add about $60MM to that and put them in the $175MM range. If they are willing to spend at similar levels nest year as Shapiro suggested, that should give them roughly $40MM or so to spend, perhaps a bit more if they end up non-tendering a couple of players from their arb class.

That money gives them some the potential to pursue various avenues this winter but, as mentioned, the free agent class skews towards pitching. The Jays are in good position in that department, with Kevin Gausman, Chris Bassitt, José Berríos and Yusei Kikuchi all still under contract next year and the departure of Ryu opening one spot. The giant unknown right now is how much the Jays believe in Alek Manoah’s ability to bounce back next year, though they also have top prospect Ricky Tiedemann knocking on the door of the majors. The bullpen was also a strength this year and the club figures to retain Jordan Romano, Erik Swanson, Tim Mayza, Yimi García, Génesis Cabrera and others.

But more offense is certainly required and the club will have to replace the production of Chapman, Kiermaier, Belt and Merrifield just to break even in that regard. Belt had a wRC+ of 138 this year, though in a part-time/platoon role. The other three finished with a wRC+ between 110 and 93 but each brought some speed and/or defense to the table. The Jays could get some internal help from key prospects like Orelvis Martinez or Addison Barger but it’s fair to expect them to pursue external options as well.

Chapman is the top free agent third baseman and could be brought back to man the hot corner, but they could also pursue someone like Jeimer Candelario at a lower price point. Merrifield is one of the best second baseman available but the club could perhaps give Davis Schneider and Cavan Biggio some run there after some encouraging results this year.

Varsho could perhaps slide over to take Kiermaier’s spot in center, allowing the club to pursue a bat-first corner outfielder like Michael Conforto or Jorge Soler, or perhaps reuniting with an old friend like Gurriel or Hernández. Belt was in the designated hitter spot most days, so there’s any number of ways the club could go with that spot. Time will tell what specific targets the club has in mind but it seems they will have the ability to reload for what should be another fiercely competitive year in the American League East.

Blue Jays Deny Mets’ Request To Interview Mark Shapiro

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Blue Jays ownership recently denied the Mets’ request to interview Toronto president/CEO Mark Shapiro as part of New York’s ongoing front office search, report Ken Davidoff, Joel Sherman and Mike Puma of the New York Post. Shapiro becomes the third known Mets’ target of the day to be ruled out as a possibility, joining Brewers GM Matt Arnold and Cardinals GM Michael Girsch.

A Shapiro pursuit would’ve always been a longshot, not too dissimilar from New York’s earlier unsuccessful runs at A’s executive vice president Billy Beane and Brewers president of baseball operations David Stearns. Shapiro has paired with general manager Ross Atkins to run baseball operations for the Jays since 2015, and he inked a five-year contract extension this January. The Post scribes suggest it’s unlikely Shapiro would’ve given much thought to making the jump to Queens even if Jays ownership had given him the opportunity to do so.

New York has also had reported interest in Giants GM Scott Harris and Dodgers assistant GM Brandon Gomes, but both took themselves out of consideration in favor of remaining with their current clubs. Los Angeles senior vice president of baseball ops Josh Byrnes is among the publicly-known candidates who haven’t since been ruled out; the Mets are also reportedly considering a couple of internal options, and there are surely potential targets with other organizations whose names have yet to be reported.

Blue Jays Expect To Raise Payroll In 2022

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The Blue Jays fell just short of achieving their goal of making the playoffs this season, but a 91-71 season has Toronto trending upward. That’s cold comfort for a fan base well-removed from its glory days, however. Following back-to-back World Series victories in 1992-93, Canada’s premier baseball club has made the playoffs just three times in the last 28 seasons – once during the shortened 2020 campaign that expanded the playoff field.

Still, the Jays appear on the cusp of sustained success that Canadians haven’t seen from their ball club since Joe Carter’s historic blast ended the 1993 season. Ownership seems to think so, too, as team president Mark Shapiro said today that, despite the COVID-related revenue losses, the payroll will continue to rise, per Ben Nicholson-Smith of sportsnet.ca (via Twitter). With deadline acquisition Jose Berrios just a year from free agency, and young stars like Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Bo Bichette without long-term deals, the Jays will need to pony up significant dough to keep this core together and competitive long-term.

Cot’s Contracts put Toronto’s 2021 payroll bill to be around $154MM, tweets Nicholson-Smith, and it doesn’t sound as if the Jays are quite ready to consider exceeding the luxury tax. But there’s a fair amount of territory between the $210MM tax line (pending the new CBA) and the $154MM they spent in 2021. As of right now, they have an estimated $114MM projected for their 2022 roster, though that number included estimates for arbitration players and only includes contracts for those players under team control.

It’s no secret that Charlie Montoyo’s club has a couple of significant players heading towards free agency, namely second baseman Marcus Semien and starters Robbie Ray and Steven Matz. For what it’s worth, Shapiro didn’t shy away from saying they plan to try to bring those three back, per Nicholson-Smith (via Twitter). But he also made a point of saying that improving the club is the priority, not bringing back the same 91-team from 2021.

So is bringing all three back a  reasonable expectation? Shapiro should have clarity from ownership on their spending limits in a month or so, per MLB.com’s Keegan Matheson (via Twitter). Shapiro certainly seemed to prepare the fan base to say goodbye to at least one of those three, if not more.

Semien is probably the most popular, as well as the safest bet considering his track record, but he also plays a position where the Jays have some depth – both in the near-and-long-term. Cavan Biggio could slide over to the keystone from the hot corner, as could 26-year-old Santiago Espinal after posting a surprising 115 wRC+ in 246 plate appearances. That could make Semien expendable.

Not to mention, Semien is likely looking for a long-term deal after making good on his season-long showcase, and the Jays have fast-rising 19-year-old infielder Orelvis Martinez making his way to the Majors. Martinez certainly isn’t ready to replicate Semien’s 6.6 fWAR season, but he might offer enough promise to push the Jays to devote their resources elsewhere.

Ray and Matz are coming off monster years considering where they’d been as recently as 2020, but the Jays need more starting pitching. Even with Berrios in the fold and Alek Manoah having established himself in the rotation, they still need an arm or two to fill out the rotation. Maybe they feel comfortable enough with the strides made by either Ray or Matz to invest in them long-term, but they might want to see the price tag first, too.

Toronto isn’t limiting their spending just to the payroll, however, as they’ve also allocated some organizational resources to upgrading the fan experience at the ballpark. There will be a new scoreboard at the Rogers Centre next season, per Laura Armstrong of the Toronto Star. That doesn’t mean a future move is outside the realm of possibility, though it certainly would seem that the Jays will have at least a near-term future in their usual confines. While that leaves a fair amount of wiggle room for the future, even a full season back in the Rogers Centre would be more stability than they’ve had in years.

Mark Shapiro Discusses Blue Jays’ Potential Return To Toronto, Vaccines, Playing In Buffalo

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Blue Jays team president/CEO Mark Shapiro discussed several topics during a wide-ranging interview with Kaitlyn McGrath of The Athletic (subscription required), including an update on the team’s plans to hopefully play games in Toronto during the 2021 season.  Shapiro feels “we have significant positive and objective momentum that would lead us to make a more formal ask sometime in the next month” about setting a somewhat more concrete date for later in the summer about when the Jays could return to the Rogers Centre.

Naturally, much is still up in the air in regards to these plans depending on the state of the pandemic.  Shapiro doesn’t “have a potential target date” for when the Jays might again play in their home city, but he has more optimism that more significant discussions could occur now that vaccinations are taking place.  Most notably, he also stated that the team has “fairly good information that the vaccine will be accessible to our players and other major-league teams in the next two to three weeks or month.”

“So that if by the end of April or early May all of our players or the bulk of our players and staff are vaccinated and other teams are as well and Toronto is a safe place…the risks start to be mitigated.  I would say that when we start to have that material progress that we see the vaccinations actually happening, we will start to formalize an ask.”

This doesn’t cover the possibility of when fans may be able to attend games at Rogers Centre, as Shapiro said “One [step] is just to get back.  And the second step will be to get back with some measure of fans.”  The city of Toronto has barred all public events until July 1 (Canada Day), and while the Jays could conceivably play empty-stadium games at Rogers Centre before that date, Shapiro acknowledged that in all likelihood, “we can’t come back to Toronto before July 1, unless something changes dramatically.”

The Blue Jays are slated to play regular-season home games in Dunedin through May 2, with homestands scheduled from May 14-24 and June 1-6.  It’s probably safe to assume the Jays will remain Florida-bound at least through May, as Shapiro said that “Obviously, we’re probably going to be in Dunedin a little longer than we’ve communicated,” but “playing here [in Dunedin] past early June is going to probably be a challenge, just weather-wise.”

Buffalo remains the probable next stop for the Blue Jays.  Buffalo’s Sahlen Field already had something of an overhaul last summer in order to make the park Major League-ready, and Shapiro said that the team is currently working with the Triple-A Buffalo Bisons for more stadium upgrades in preparation for games in 2021.

Blue Jays Extend Mark Shapiro

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Blue Jays president and chief executive officer Mark Shapiro has agreed to a five-year extension, per an announcement from Rogers Communications. Shapiro indicated back in October that he hoped to remain in his post and that Jays ownership at Rogers had reciprocated that interest. Sportsnet’s Ben Nicholson-Smith tweets that Shapiro will now be under contract through 2025.

Mark Shapiro | Kim Klement-USA TODAY Sports

“Mark’s leadership and commitment to excellence over the last five years have been critical to the team’s growth and development,” said Rogers Communications/Blue Jays chairman Edward Rogers in a statement announcing the new contract. “We’re extremely pleased that Mark will continue to lead the Toronto Blue Jays and build on the team’s progress as we work towards our goal of bringing as World Series championship back to Canada.”

Shapiro, 53, came to the Jays in 2015 on the heels of a 25-year run with the Indians. He served as Cleveland’s general manager from 2001-10 before being promoted to president, at which point current Cleveland president of baseball ops Chris Antonetti was elevated to GM status. Shapiro hired Cleveland’s director of player personnel, Ross Atkins, to serve as the Blue Jays’ general manager upon taking his initial post in Toronto, and the two have overseen the club’s operations since. Atkins signed a contract extension himself back in June 2019, although unlike Shapiro, the length of his contract was never formally announced by Rogers.

As is often the case with front-office overhauls in baseball, there were some lean years for the Jays after the hiring of Shapiro and Atkins. Those struggles are now in the rear-view mirror, however, as the Jays boast a young core that is among the more enviable groups of controllable talent in the game. Toronto supplemented that core with the signing of ace Hyun Jin Ryu last winter, and the Jays are widely expected to sign and/or acquire additional high-end talent this winter as they take aim at a second consecutive postseason berth.

The extension for Shapiro and the 2019 extension for Atkins ensure continuity atop both the baseball and business operations hierarchies for the Jays as they endeavor to establish themselves as a perennial contender in the ever-competitive AL East.

Shapiro issued his own statement on the new contract as well:

“From a personal and professional standpoint, I am thrilled to continue being a Toronto Blue Jay. I am fortunate to work with exceptional people and am proud of the progress we have made together, to build a culture, community and clubhouse that our incredible fans can cheer on. Living in Toronto and Canada has been life changing for me and my family and I am excited to experience the feeling of winning a championship with this city and country.”

Mark Shapiro Expects To Remain With Blue Jays

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Blue Jays president Mark Shapiro has fielded his share of criticism over five years at the helm, but now seems on the precipice of another term. As Shi Davidi of Sportsnet.ca was among those to report, Shapiro strongly suggested that he’s going to re-up with the Toronto organization.

Shapiro has long spoken of his interest in remaining with the Jays, so there’s no news there. But as Davidi observes, it’s hard to imagine that the veteran executive would’ve casually made these additional comments in the absence of an all-but-imminent new contract:

“The desire to be here long term has been reciprocated by the people I work for. That’s as simple as I can be for you. I’ll be here until I’m not here. Based upon my desire to be here and the reciprocation of that, I would expect that that’s going to continue to happen.”

It’d certainly rate as a major surprise at this point to see Shapiro depart. Just how long and lucrative his new contract will be remains to be seen, but it appears the Blue Jays will entrust him with navigating a tricky economic and competitive situation.

Quite apart from these suggestive comments, Shapiro seemed safe after a successful 2020 showing. Facing increasing pressure from the fanbase, he and GM Ross Atkins delivered a postseason appearance after making a few significant roster moves in the 2019-20 offseason.

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