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Jason Heyward

Jason Heyward’s Quietly Productive Season

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Outfielder Jason Heyward entered the majors as a can’t-miss prospect in 2010, three years after the Braves chose him 14th overall in the 2007 draft. Heyward made good on the hype in his first at-bat on Opening Day, smashing a three-run homer off Cubs right-hander Carlos Zambrano, and never really looked back from there in his first season. During a rookie campaign in which he didn’t turn 21 until August, Heyward posted 4.6 fWAR on the strength of tremendous offensive production and right field defense. Little did anyone know Heyward wouldn’t again approach the .277/.393/.456 slash and 134 wRC+ he recorded as a rookie.

Heyward did remain a quality hitter from 2011-15 with the Braves and Cardinals, albeit not as formidable as he was during his initial campaign. Still, combining the above-average offense, stellar defense and well-regarded base running he displayed over his first several seasons, he landed an eight-year, $184MM contract from the Cubs entering the 2016 campaign. Heyward was part of the Cubs’ drought-breaking World Series team in the initial year of his deal, in which he delivered a behind-the-scenes rain delay speech that may have helped the team overcome the Indians in Game 7.

Title aside, the Cubs mostly haven’t gotten the bang for their buck they wanted from giving Heyward one of the richest contracts in the history of the sport. During his first three years in a Cubs uniform, Heyward slashed a paltry .252/.322/.367 (85 wRC+) in 1,562 plate appearances. Heyward continued to flash terrific defense during that period, but the overall package was worth just 4.1 fWAR – less than he registered in four individual seasons before heading to Chicago.

Heyward did manage a league-average 2.0 fWAR in 2018, indicating he was hardly a lost cause, though his offense was middling at best for the third consecutive season. This year has been a different story, however. Across 320 trips to the plate, the 29-year-old has hit .273/.364/.471 (116 wRC+) with 14 home runs – already his highest total as a Cub and his most in a season since 2013. With 1.4 fWAR at the 80-game mark, Heyward’s on pace for his most valuable year as a Cub. The figure’s still not excellent, in part because Heyward has struggled as a center fielder this year, but it’s respectable for a player whose Cubs tenure has been a disappointment overall.

The question is whether the above-average offensive version of Heyward has truly returned. If we’re to believe Statcast, maybe not. Heyward’s expected weighted on-base average, .324, ranks below the league mean and lags well behind his .355 real wOBA. Likewise, Heyward’s expected slugging percentage (30th percentile), hard-hit percentage (37th percentile), average exit velocity (54th percentile) and expected batting average (61st percentile) all range from well below par to a bit above it. The left-handed Heyward’s also continuing a career-long trend of having difficulty against same-handed pitchers, who have held him to a horrid .200/.262/.300 line and a 48 wRC+ this season.

On the other hand, Heyward’s showing off an impressive ability to draw walks that has helped buoy his numbers. With a 12.5 percent walk rate (his highest since his rookie year) against a 17.8 percent strikeout rate, Heyward’s K/BB ratio ranks 25th in the majors. Heyward’s also displaying way more power than he has in recent years, evidenced in part by his aforementioned home run spike. His isolated power (.199) is his greatest since 2012 and sits 84 points higher than the ISO he combined for during his first three Cubs seasons. Heyward’s doing much more damage throughout several zones compared to last year, as FanGraphs’ heat maps show (2018, 2019).

One cause: Heyward’s hitting far fewer infield fly balls than he did earlier in his Chicago stint. An infield fly’s essentially an automatic out, and Heyward hit them at a 16.9 percent rate over the prior three seasons. That number has shrunk to 10.4 this year. With that in mind, it’s no surprise Heyward has upped his hard contact by 6.1 percent compared to 2016-18 and decreased his soft-hit rate by almost 8 percent, according to FanGraphs. Heyward has also logged a 12.2-degree launch angle which ranks as his loftiest in the Statcast era.

None of this is to say the Cubs should be content with what they’ve gotten from Heyward during his run with the team. In fact, they’re stuck with Heyward, who won’t be opting out of the remaining four years and $86MM on his contract during the upcoming offseason. However, he has been a legitimate bright spot this year on a team that has been something of a letdown overall. The Cubs do hold a National League playoff spot at the moment, but not by much. They’ve been slumping since late May and have won just 45 of their first 85 games. Heyward certainly hasn’t been part of the problem, though.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Previewing 2019-20’s Opt-Out Clause Decisions

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Some few contracts include provisions giving the player control over one or more seasons by affording the chance to opt out of the remainder of the deal. Take the bird in hand or see how many you can net from the free-agent bush? Market changes have impacted the math for some players, but the open market still has riches to offer. We don’t know how things will look for any given player at season’s end, but here’s how it’s shaping up at the outset of the 2019 campaign:

Elvis Andrus, SS, Rangers: Three years, $43MM: The 2016-17 version of Andrus — and the one we saw through the season’s first two weeks in 2018 — looked every bit like a player who would exercise the first of two opt-out clauses in his contract (which came at the end of the 2018 season). From Opening Day 2016 through April 11 last year, Andrus posted a terrific .301/.352/.459 batting line with 30 homers, 78 doubles, 11 triples and 49 steals through 1318 plate appearances. Paired with his glovework at shortstop, he looked very capable of topping the remaining four years and $58MM on his contract. Unfortunately, he suffered an elbow fracture, missed two months, and returned to hit only .245/.289/.347 in his final 367 plate appearances. An offseason of rest looks to have done him some good, as he’s hitting .380/.392/.500 through 51 PAs. Unlike several players on this list, there’s an actual chance that Andrus could test the open market, though free agency hasn’t been kind to players on the wrong side of 30 in recent years.

Jake Arrieta, RHP, Phillies: One year, $20MM (unless Phillies exercise two-year, $40MM option for 2021-22): Arrieta’s first season with the Phils was solid, if unremarkable. He tallied 172 2/3 innings and gave the team a 3.96 ERA with fielding-independent metrics that didn’t stray too far from that ERA (4.26 FIP, 4.08 xFIP, 4.29 SIERA). The former Cy Young winner’s velocity is down a couple miles per hour from its peak levels, and while Arrieta showed good control and ground-ball tendencies in 2018, he no longer appears to be a strikeout pitcher. Given that he’ll pitch next season at age 34, it doesn’t seem all that likely that the Phillies will sign up to tack on another pair of $20MM seasons. With a strong 2019 effort, it’s possible that Arrieta positions himself to land a two-year deal with a larger guarantee but lower annual rate (e.g. two years, $30MM), so it’s not out of the question that he’d opt out at season’s end, even if seems unlikely at present.

Yu Darvish, RHP, Cubs: Four years, $81MM: Darvish’s first season in Chicago was an unmitigated disaster, as a series of arm injuries limited him to just 40 innings of work. His velocity isn’t where it was in previous seasons, and in this season’s small sample of three starts, he’s walked more batters than he’s punched out. It’s hard to envision any scenario in which Darvish opts out of his contract; even if he stormed back to ace status and won an NL Cy Young Award, I’m not sure he’d top $81MM as a 33-year-old free agent with a qualifying offer hanging over his head. The Cubs appear stuck with the contract and will need to simply hope for a rebound.

Jason Heyward, OF, Cubs: Four years, $86MM (assuming he makes 550 PAs): Heyward has had a scalding hot start to the season, mashing at a .351/.444/.676 pace. Through 45 plate appearances, he’s already halfway to his home run total from a 2018 season in which he came to he plate 489 times. Even if Heyward’s bat proves to be rejuvenated to its 2015 levels, however, it’s virtually unfathomable that he’d walk away from the remaining $86MM on this contract. His poor results in his first three seasons with the Cubs still loom large enough that a monster year at the dish would be met with a heavy dose of skepticism, and he’ll turn 30 in August.

Kenley Jansen, RHP, Dodgers: Two years, $38MM: After seven seasons as a near-unstoppable force in the Dodgers’ bullpen, Jansen looked mortal in 2018 when he logged a 3.01 ERA (his first time ever topping 3.00) and 10.3 K/9 (his first time south of 13.0). A strong enough rebound campaign could embolden Jansen to seek out a three-year deal at a lower annual salary than the $19MM remaining on his contract; the Rockies gave Wade Davis a total of $52MM for the same three-year age span that Jansen will be entering (32-34). He’s already rejected one qualifying offer in his career, so he wouldn’t be eligible to receive a second one (even though he landed with the same team that winter).

J.D. Martinez, DH/OF, Red Sox: Three years, $62.5MM: The general expectation in the 2017-18 offseason was that Martinez’s 2017 season (.303/.376/.690, 45 home runs) would be a peak year. Instead, he turned in an arguably even more productive 2018 season with the Red Sox, hitting a ridiculous .330/.402/.629 with 43 home runs in 649 PAs — the second-highest total of his career. Martinez is off to another strong start in 2019, and despite a frosty climate for free agents, one can only wonder if he’d be tempted to once again test free agency if he can post a third consecutive season of 40-plus homers with an OPS north of 1.000. One wrinkle to consider is that barring an unexpected midseason trade, Martinez would have a qualifying offer attached to him this time around; that wasn’t true of his last trip through free agency, as he’d been traded from Detroit to Arizona midseason.

Stephen Strasburg, RHP, Nationals: Four years, $100MM: Strasburg is still a strikeout machine who posts big totals in swinging-strike and opponents’ chase rates, but his 93.1 mph average fastball in 2019 is well south of last year’s 94.5 mph (to say nothing of his career 95.3). The former No. 1 pick was a big part of the Nats’ rotation in 2018 and should be again this year, but he was more good than great last year (130 innings, 3.74 ERA, 10.8 K/9, 2.6 BB/9, 43.6 GB%). Moreover, Darvish and a much younger Patrick Corbin are the only two pitchers who have topped $100MM in guarantees over the past two offseasons. Strasburg would be hit with a qualifying offer if he opted out, and he’d be betting against recent trends as a 31-year-old pitcher looking to cash in on a nine-figure contract. He can ask Dallas Keuchel how well that strategy works.

Injury Updates: Morrow, Cubs, Chapman, McFarland, Liberatore

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The Cubs got some good news on Brandon Morrow today, as the closer felt good after throwing a 19-pitch simulated game.  (The Athletic’s Sahadev Sharma and the Chicago Tribune’s Paul Sullivan were among those who reported the news.)  Morrow hasn’t pitched since July 15 due to biceps inflammation, and as recently as 10 days ago, manager Joe Maddon expressed some doubt that Morrow would be able to pitch again this season.  In the wake of today’s simulated outing, Morrow could potentially be activated from the DL in time for at least part of the Cubs’ series against the Diamondbacks, which begins on Monday.  Morrow won’t be used as a closer right away, Maddon said, as the team will ease the righty back into action by keeping him on pitch counts and avoiding using him in back-to-back games.  Even in this limited capacity, Morrow’s impending return is nice boost for the Cubs’ postseason chances, as the veteran had a sterling 1.47 ERA, 9.1 K/9, and 3.44 K/BB rate over his first 30 2/3 innings in a Chicago uniform.

Here are some more injury updates from around baseball…

  • In other Cubs injury news, Maddon told Sahadev Sharma (Twitter link) and other reporters that Jason Heyward could return from the DL as early as today after missing two weeks with a hamstring injury.  Kyle Schwarber hasn’t played since September 10 due to a bad back, though the slugger could be available to pinch-hit today.
  • Yankees closer Aroldis Chapman felt good after a bullpen session today, and he’ll throw a simulated game on Monday or Tuesday, MLB.com’s Bryan Hoch tweets.  If all goes well, Chapman is on pace to be activated from the disabled list sometime this week.  Chapman hit the DL due to knee inflammation on August 22, and there was even some concern that the problem could sideline the closer for the rest of the regular season.  Now, however, it looks as if Chapman will be back on the field and get some time to work off the rust before the postseason.
  • Diamondbacks southpaw T.J. McFarland hasn’t pitched since September 8 due to elbow soreness, though the problem appears to be only a bone spur rather than a more serious UCL issue, FOX Sports Arizona’s Jody Jackson reports (via Twitter).  McFarland is back to playing catch with the hopes of a return to the mound.  The left-hander has been a force for the D’Backs this season, posting a 2.00 ERA and a 67.9% grounder rate over 72 relief innings.
  • Free agent reliever Adam Liberatore will require 6-8 weeks of recovery time after undergoing arthroscopic surgery on his left knee, J.P. Hoornstra of the Southern California News Group reports (Twitter link).  The procedure isn’t expected to have any impact on Liberatore’s readiness for the 2019 season, though it will obviously slow his chances of immediately catching on with a new team.  The left-hander was limited by knee problems this season and a forearm strain in 2017, and thus he has thrown just 16 1/3 Major League innings total in 2017-18.  When healthy, Liberatore has looked like a solid relief option, posting a 3.55 ERA, 9.4 K/9, and 2.58 K/BB rate over 88 2/3 career frames for the Dodgers, who released Liberatore last week.

2018-19 Opt-Out & Player Option Decisions

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With Major League teams increasingly adding opt-out provisions to free-agent contracts as a means of incentivizing players to sign, there are now a handful of those decisions that impact the free-agent market every offseason. With nearly 90 percent of the season already in the books, many of the opt-out decisions/player option decisions look pretty clear cut.

Things could change over the final month, but here’s a look at where things currently stand…

Clayton Kershaw, Dodgers (Two years, $65MM remaining): Truthfully, Kershaw is the only player with an opt-out provision in 2018 who could be called likely to exercise the clause at present. While he hasn’t been quite as dominant as usual and has spent time on the DL for a third straight year (back issues, biceps tendinitis), it’s difficult to imagine him having to take less than that $65MM sum in free agency.

In 131 1/3 innings this season, Kershaw is sporting a 2.40 ERA with 8.7 K/9, 1.4 BB/9, 0.89 HR/9 and a 48.9 percent ground-ball rate. He hasn’t topped 200 innings since 2015, but he’s still a clearly elite starter. If he does formally opt out, the Dodgers can issue a qualifying offer, though perhaps the easiest scenario would be for Los Angeles to simply extend Kershaw’s current contract to prolong his already historic Dodgers career.

David Price, Red Sox (Four years, $127MM remaining): Price is having his best season with the Red Sox, having notched a 3.60 ERA with a strikeout per inning and 2.4 walks per nine innings pitched through 152 1/3 frames. His results have been solid, but it’s nearly impossible to imagine a scenario where he exceeds $127MM in free agency at the age of 33. Price’s Boston tenure has been rocky at times, but it seems likely that he’ll be back in the rotation next season.

[Related: Club option decisions on starting pitchers, relievers and position players]

Jason Heyward, Cubs (Five years, $106MM remaining): Declining to opt out is little more than a formality for Heyward at this point, as he hasn’t come close to living up to his $184MM contract in Chicago through the first three seasons. To his credit, though the 29-year-old has had a nice rebound effort, hitting .275/.342/.399 with above-average defense in right field. That might make the Cubs feel better about his contract moving forward, but it won’t be enough to prompt Heyward to test free agency. His contract contains a second opt-out clause following the 2019 season, at which point he’ll have four years and $86MM remaining, but that also seems like a long shot.

Elvis Andrus, Rangers (Four years, $58MM): Andrus could be considered more of a borderline call than some on this list, but he seems likelier to stay with Texas than to opt out. The 30-year-old hasn’t had a bad season, hitting .270/.322/.396 with quality defense, but his bat hasn’t been as potent as it was in 2016-17 when he hit a combined .299/.348/.457. The downturn in offensive output might not be entirely Andrus’ fault; he did incur a broken elbow when he was hit by a pitch earlier this season — an injury that caused him to miss just over two months of action. It’s easy to imagine that injury having a lingering effect on Andrus’ swing, too.

Like Heyward, Andrus has a second opt-out clause in his contract after the 2019 season. At that point, he’ll have three years and $43MM remaining on his contract. If his bat returns to its 2016-17 levels, surpassing that $43MM mark in free agency could be plausible. If Andrus opted out, he’d certainly be issued a qualifying offer — there’s no reason for the team to worry about him taking a one-year deal worth about $18MM when he just walked away from $58MM — which would only further hinder his earning power.

Yasmany Tomas, D-backs (Two years, $32.5MM remaining): Tomas clubbed 31 homers with the 2016 Diamondbacks but did so with a .315 on-base percentage and some of the worst defensive ratings of any player in the Majors — regardless of position. He’s since been outrighted off the 40-man roster and, in 371 Triple-A plate appearances this season, has 101 strikeouts against 11 walks with a .280 OBP. Suffice it to say: he’s not going anywhere.

Mark Melancon, Giants (Two years, $28MM remaining): Injuries have ruined Melancon’s first two seasons with the Giants, though he’s been excellent since returning in 2018: 2.64 ERA, 7.9K/9, 2.4 BB/9, 53.1 percent ground-ball rate in 30 2/3 innings. That performance is encouraging for the Giants as they look to 2019, but it won’t be enough to make Melancon’s camp think he can top $28MM heading into his age-34 season.

Brandon Kintzler, Cubs ($5MM player option): Kintzler’s contract technically contains a $10MM club option or a $5MM player option, but it’s clear given his dismal performance since being traded to Chicago that the team won’t be opting for that $10MM sum. Kintzler was very good with the Twins and Nationals from 2016 through this past July, but his typically excellent control has evaporated in Chicago while his hard-contact rate has skyrocketed. It’s only a sample of 11 2/3 innings, but his struggles make the option seem a fairly straightforward decision.

Eduardo Nunez, Red Sox ($5MM player option): Nunez’s deal comes with a $2MM buyout, making this effectively a $3MM decision for his camp. He’s struggled to the point that he may not even want to take that risk, though, hitting just .258/.282/.384 through 473 trips to the plate.

Rob Bradford of WEEI.com reported this week that Nunez’s option increased from $4MM to $5MM once he reached 400 plate appearances. Bradford spoke to Nunez, who acknowledged that the knee that gave out on him in the postseason last year has been a problem for him throughout 2018, though he believes he’s finally “close” to 100 percent. Perhaps a strong month and a big postseason could prompt him to again test the open market, but his overall production to this point makes the player option seem a likelier outcome.

NL Notes: Rockies, Ottavino, Cubs, Dodgers

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Here’s the latest on a few National League teams:

  • Pending free-agent reliever Adam Ottavino hopes to stay with the Rockies, but the two sides have not discussed a new contract, Patrick Saunders of the Denver Post reports. Ottavino has been a solid reliever for most of his Rockies tenure, which began in 2012, but he has especially effective in 2018. Playing his age-32 season, Ottavino has logged a superb 2.08 ERA with 13.15 K/9 against 4.15 BB/9 across 65 innings, and that production may price him out of Colorado. With Wade Davis, Bryan Shaw, Jake McGee and Mike Dunn set to make a combined $42MM in 2019, the Rockies already have significant money tied up next year’s bullpen. Unfortunately for the Rockies, that big-money quartet has been a colossal disappointment this season.
  • The Cubs placed outfielder Jason Heyward (right hamstring) on the disabled list Friday, and his absence appears likely to affect their infield picture, Gordon Wittenmyer of the Chicago Sun-Times explains. Given that third baseman Kris Bryant is capable of playing the outfield, he may see quite a bit of time in the grass during Heyward’s absence, per Wittenmyer. That would open up the hot corner for middle infielder Javier Baez, while Addison Russell would handle shortstop and Daniel Murphy would stay at second base. Heyward, meanwhile, may miss the majority of September, Wittenmyer suggests. After a rough stretch from 2016-17, Heyward has posted something of a bounce-back season this year, having hit .275/.342/.399 (100 wRC+) with 2.2 fWAR in 451 plate appearances.
  • Dodgers reliever Erik Goeddel is done for the season, Andy McCullough of the Los Angeles Times tweets. Goeddel was only able to take the mound twice last month, most recently on Aug. 15, because of right elbow issues. A late-May waiver pickup from Seattle, Goeddel did good work over 29 1/3 innings with LA this year, recording a 3.38 ERA ball with 35 strikeouts against 15 walks.

Injury Notes: Beltre, Cubs, Bucs, Tribe, Candelario

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Rangers third baseman Adrian Beltre left the team’s game Sunday after re-aggravating his left hamstring, TR Sullivan of MLB.com tweets. Another stint on the disabled list may be in the offing for Beltre, who suffered a strained hamstring on April 24 and didn’t come off the DL until this past Tuesday. When Beltre has been healthy enough to take the field this season, the 39-year-old future Hall of Famer has put together a .314/.375/.422 batting line in 120 plate appearances.

More injury updates from around MLB…

  • Cubs outfielder Jason Heyward won’t come off the seven-day concussion DL on Monday, Carrie Muskat of MLB.com relays. It’s unclear when Heyward will be ready to go, as manager Joe Maddon said Sunday that there’s no timetable for his return. In better news for the Cubs, right-hander Yu Darvish will take the ball against the Braves on Tuesday, per Muskat. Darvish will end up missing the minimum, then, after going on the 10-day DL retroactive to May 4 with flu-like symptoms.
  • Pirates second baseman Josh Harrison will begin a rehab assignment Monday at the Double-A level, Cory Giger of the Altoona Mirror reports (Twitter link). Harrison has been on the shelf since suffering a fractured left hand on April 15. It seems he’ll make it back to the majors within the expected six-week window, though.
  • Indians left-hander Ryan Merritt will put his rehab assignment on hold on account of inflammation in his throwing shoulder, Jordan Bastian of MLB.com tweets. Merritt has been on the mend from a separate injury – a left knee issue – which has sidelined him all season. He’ll now go three to five days before throwing again. The out-of-options Merritt could be a fifth starter option for the Indians when he returns, given Josh Tomlin’s disastrous output thus far.
  • The previously reported MRI on Tigers third baseman Jeimer Candelario’s left wrist came back clean, according to the 24-year-old (Twitter link via Jason Beck of MLB.com). Candelario will “try to rehab and strengthen it,” Beck writes. He was out of the lineup for the Tigers’ game against the Mariners on Sunday, though manager Ron Gardenhire said afterward that “everything’s going to be fine” (via Anthony Fenech of the Detroit Free Press, on Twitter).

Injury Notes: Beltre, Schoop, Price, Cueto, Heyward

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The Rangers announced this afternoon that they’ve activated Adrian Beltre from the disabled list. Beltre is in the lineup tonight, hitting cleanup and playing his customary third base. Infielder Eliezer Alvarez was optioned to Double-A Frisco to open a roster spot for Beltre’s return from a hamstring strain that sidelined him for roughly two weeks. The injury initially served as cause for greater concern within the organization, as Beltre was reportedly visibly frustrated and was not optimistic after initially sustaining the injury. Beltre was hitting .310/.366/.437 through 101 plate appearances when he laced a would-be double to the gap in right-center field but came up lame and hobbled into first base before exiting a late-April game.

Some additional injury updates on several high-profile players throughout the league…

  • The Orioles activated Jonathan Schoop from the 10-day disabled list prior to tonight’s contest, optioning infielder Engelb Vielma to Triple-A Norfolk to clear a space for their second baseman. Schoop, 26, missed nearly a month of action after landing on the DL on April 14 due to a strained right oblique muscle. Like much of the Baltimore offense, he’d been struggling prior to landing on the disabled list. In 65 plate appearances this season, he’s batted .230/.266/.344 with a troubling spike in strikeouts (19 — a rate of 29.2 percent) and just one walk on the season (1.5 percent).
  • David Price has been scratched from tomorrow’s start by the Red Sox, Peter Abraham of the Boston Globe tweets. He’s headed back to Boston after experiencing numbness in his hand and being unable to complete his most recent bullpen session on Sunday, per the report. Abraham’s colleague, Alex Speier, recently examined Price’s velocity drop this season in a column, noting that he exited a start earlier this year due to similar feelings of numbness, though he attributed that instance to the cold weather. That wasn’t the case this time around, as Sunday’s bullpen session took place in Arlington. Jason Mastrodonato of the Boston Herald has quotes from manager Alex Cora in the wake of today’s news. Cora doesn’t believe the injury is related to Price’s elbow, though the tests he undergoes in Boston will obviously be more telling in that regard. Rick Porcello is stepping up to start in Price’s place tomorrow.
  • Johnny Cueto will be shut down entirely for the next two weeks as he rests a sprain in his right elbow, per Andrew Baggarly of The Athletic (Twitter links). The Giants righty told reporters today that he pitched through “unbearable” pain in each of his final three starts before landing on the disabled list. Henry Schulman of the San Francisco Chronicle tweets that Cueto had mentally prepared himself for the news that he was going to require Tommy John surgery and miss the remainder of the season.
  • The Cubs announced today that outfielder Jason Heyward has been placed on the 7-day concussion DL. Infielder David Bote is back up from Triple-A to take his spot on the active roster for the time being. Heyward collided with the right-field wall over the weekend when attempting to rob former teammate Dexter Fowler of what wound up being a walk-off home run in the 14th inning of Sunday’s game against the Cardinals (video link). Interestingly, manager Joe Maddon tells reporters that Kris Bryant could see some time in right field while Heyward is sidelined (Twitter link via MLB.com’s Carrie Muskat).

An earlier version of this post incorrectly stated that Cueto had already undergone Tommy John surgery once in his career.

Quick Hits: Pirates, Rays, Red Sox, Heyward, Int’l Prospects

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The Pirates and Rays have faced criticism from fans and pundits for a lack of spending, plus they were two of the four teams cited in a grievance filed by the players’ union about the quartet’s use of revenue-sharing funds.  ESPN.com’s David Schoenfield, however, argues that the Bucs and Rays didn’t boast big payrolls even when they were in contention, and the larger issue that hurt Pittsburgh and Tampa Bay in 2017 was a lack of production from homegrown talent.  Neither club has done a good job of drafting and developing prospects in recent years, and the lack of a strong pipeline of minor league talent is deadly for any smaller-market franchise.

Here’s more from around the baseball world…

  • The hiring of new manager Alex Cora as gave the Red Sox some insight into how the Astros (Cora’s former team) used analytics to help with in-game strategy, and it made the Sox realize that they were falling behind in the advanced statistics arms race, WEEI.com’s Rob Bradford reports.  Boston’s analytics department is now up to 10 full-time employees (plus interns) after some offseason hirings, and the team has drastically overhauled its advance scouting and data-gathering methodology to better get information to Cora and the coaching staff.
  • Jason Heyward’s struggles since joining the Cubs have almost reached the point of historical oddity, as “this type of production drop during a player’s prime is nearly unprecedented, especially when injuries aren’t a factor,” The Athletic’s Sahadev Sharma writes (subscription required).  Heyward has just a .243/.315/.353 slash line over 1073 PA for Chicago, as opposed to the .268/.353/.431 he posted in 3429 PA with the Braves and Cardinals over his first six seasons.  Sharma cites a few other players who went through similarly sudden early declines, and only former Dodgers and Expos outfielder/first baseman Ron Fairly was able to entirely rebound and again become a productive hitter.  Still, Heyward has been working with new hitting coach Chili Davis and the Cubs are still hopeful that he can regain some of his old stroke.
  • Major League Baseball recently held a showcase for some of the top international prospects who will become available when the 2018-19 international signing window opens on July 2.  In a subscription-only piece, Baseball America’s Ben Badler (two links) has the breakdown of some of the pitchers who made a particular impression, with some of these young arms already linked to such teams as the Cubs, Diamondbacks, Marlins, and Phillies.

Injury Notes: Heyward, Sabathia, Warren, Shoemaker, E-Rod, Dahl

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The latest on some DL situations around the league…

  • The Cubs have activated Jason Heyward from the 10-day DL.  Infielder Jeimer Candelario and righty Felix Pena were optioned to Triple-A, while left-hander Jack Leathersich was called up in corresponding moves.  Heyward has missed two weeks due to a left hand abrasion, his second DL stint of the season after missing time due to a sprained finger in May.  The injuries haven’t helped Heyward’s goal of regaining his former offensive consistency, as the outfielder has a .258/.315/.399 slash line over 217 PA this season.  [Updated Cubs depth chart at Roster Resource]
  • The Yankees have activated C.C. Sabathia and Adam Warren from the disabled list, and optioned right-handers Domingo German and Bryan Mitchell to Triple-A in corresponding moves.  Sabathia will start today’s game against the Blue Jays, his first outing since hitting the DL with a Grade 2 hamstring strain in mid-June.  The veteran southpaw is looking to continue a strong campaign that has seen him post a 3.46 ERA over 75 1/3 innings.  Warren was also enjoying a very good season (2.23 ERA, 8.4 K/9, 3.33 K/BB rate) in 32 1/3 IP out of New York’s bullpen before being sidelined with shoulder inflammation for the last three weeks.
  • Matt Shoemaker is scheduled for a minor league rehab start today, Jeff Fletcher of the Orange County Register tweets.  The righty will need at least one more rehab game after today before returning to the Angels roster.  Shoemaker went on the DL with forearm tightness in mid-June, though that ominous-sounding injury was related to his extensor muscle, and an MRI revealed no structural damage.  Shoemaker has a 4.52 ERA, 2.46 K/BB rate and 8.0 K/9 over 77 2/3 IP for the Angels this year and he has had trouble keeping the ball in the park, with 15 home runs allowed.
  • The Red Sox will won’t bring Eduardo Rodriguez back to the rotation before the All-Star break, Tim Britton of the Providence Journal tweets.  Rodriguez hasn’t pitched since June 1 due to a partial right kneecap dislocation, the latest in a series of knee injuries the left-handed has dealt with in his young career.  The Sox could give Rodriguez another rehab start in the minors or activate him from the DL for use as a reliever next weekend, Britton writes.
  • David Dahl has been pain-free for over a month, the Rockies outfielder tells Patrick Saunders of the Denver Post as Dahl continues to recover from a stress fracture in his ribcage.  There isn’t yet a timetable for a rehab assignment or Dahl’s return to Colorado’s roster, and it is likely both he and the team want to be as certain as possible given the lingering nature of the injury, which has plagued Dahl since very early in Spring Training.

NL Central Notes: Peralta, Heyward, Happ, Reds, Cole

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Jhonny Peralta is back with the Cardinals after being activated from the disabled list, though Peralta told reporters (including Rick Hummel of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch) that he’ll have to adjust to being a part-time player for the first time in his career.  “Everybody is doing good and the team — we’re in second place,” Peralta said.  “I understand the situation but it’s kind of hard for me to be on the bench and not play every day, because I know what kind of player I can be….I need to learn to be ready for whatever time or situation it is in the game.”  Peralta was a productive starter for the Cards as recently as the 2015 season, though an injury-plagued 2016 opened the door for Aledmys Diaz and Jedd Gyorko to emerge, and those two have now established themselves as the Cardinals’ regulars at shortstop and third base.  Peralta, who turns 35 later this month, is in the final year of a four-year, $53MM contract and is owed roughly $7.4MM for the remainder of the season.  A trade could be difficult to work given this remaining salary and Peralta’s lack of recent production, though if Peralta is able to get somewhat back into form, he’ll give the Cards some solid veteran infield depth.

Here’s more from around the NL Central…

  • Jason Heyward expects to be activated from the 10-day DL today, which creates an interesting roster decision for the Cubs, MLB.com’s Carrie Muskat writes.  Top prospect Ian Happ has looked spectacular since being promoted last week and could stick with the club, through manager Joe Maddon said that the team wants Happ to get regular action wherever he plays, which could be somewhat difficult on Chicago’s crowded big league roster.  “That’s what happens when you’re good is you have tough decisions,” Maddon said.  “The fact that Ian has come up and done so well makes it even more difficult. We’ll try to figure it out and make our best guess.”  Happ brings a lot of versatility as a switch-hitter and a multi-positional player, so the Cubs could get him playing time in a variety of roles and instead demote another bench option such as Tommy La Stella or Albert Almora.  Heyward has missed two weeks due to a sprained right index finger, and was already back in the Cubs’ clubhouse after completing a one-game rehab stint in the minors.
  • The incentive bonuses for Scott Feldman and Drew Storen are broken down by Zach Buchanan of the Cincinnati Enquirer, as Storen has already reached his first incentive threshold (15 appearances) and Feldman will access his bonus money on Monday when he makes his 10th start of the season.  Feldman will earn $100K for that outing, and then another $100K or $200K for each successive start thereafter, up to 25 starts.  The righty also has extra cash available in relief incentives, though Feldman isn’t likely to be moved out of the Reds rotation anytime soon, due to both his own solid performance (a 4.29 ERA in 50 1/3 IP) and Cincy’s lack of healthy alternatives.  Storen has pitched very well out of the Reds bullpen and is in great shape to earn his $750K in available incentives for appearances, though attaining his games-finished bonuses could be difficult with Raisel Iglesias locked in at closer.
  • With the Pirates in last place and facing an uphill battle in the NL Central race, Peter Gammons of GammonsDaily.com argues that the Bucs should deal Gerrit Cole while the right-hander’s trade value is at its highest.  Cole is looking healthy after an injury-shortened 2016 and is pitching well, with a 2.84 ERA, 7.9 K/9, 50.3% grounder rate and 4.17 K/BB rate through 57 innings.  Between this front-of-the-rotation production and Cole being under team control through 2019, the Pirates would stand to obtain a major haul if Cole was dealt.  Gammons speculates that the Astros and Yankees would be the top two suitors, as they have enough minor league depth to afford the big price tag Pittsburgh would demand for Cole’s services.

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