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Padres Select David Morgan

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The Padres announced this afternoon that they’ve selected the contract of right-hander David Morgan. Righty Logan Gillaspie is headed for the 15-day injured list due to a left oblique strain, which creates space for Morgan on the active roster. Righty Bryan Hoeing was transferred to the 60-day IL to open up a 40-man roster spot for Morgan.

Morgan, 25, is in line to make his big league debut once he gets into a game. Signed as an undrafted free agent by the Padres back in 2022, the right-hander made just three complex league appearances in his first year with the club. He pitched to decent results in Single- and High-A in 2023 but took a step backwards last year when he struggled to a 5.35 ERA in 22 appearances at the Double-A level. He struck out just 18.9% of his opponents while walking 11.2%, but the first few appearances of his return to the level this year have gone much more smoothly. Morgan has pitched to a 3.12 ERA across seven outings this season with an incredible 50% strikeout rate and just one walked allowed. That dominating run of outings at Double-A was evidently enough for the Padres to give Morgan a look at the big league level despite it lasting just 8 2/3 innings and the righty having no experience at even Triple-A so far in his career.

Morgan’s addition to the roster is made possible by the departure of Logan Gillaspie, who was selected to the roster earlier this month. Gillaspie was added as a long relief option and had pitched to a 2.57 ERA in seven innings despite walking as many batters as he’s struck out (4). The right-hander has now been sidelined by an oblique strain, however, and figures to be on the shelf for at least the next couple of weeks. Gillaspie has made only a handful of big league appearances prior to this year between San Diego and Baltimore, though he’s struggled in those limited outings with a 5.02 ERA in 37 2/3 innings of work entering this season.

As for Hoeing, the righty was acquired alongside Tanner Scott from the Marlins at the trade deadline last year. After struggling in his first two seasons with the Marlins, 2024 proved to be something of a breakout for Hoeing as he pitched to a 2.18 ERA in 53 2/3 innings of work, including a 1.52 ERA in 18 appearances with San Diego down the stretch. Hoeing was considered for a move into the starting rotation by the Padres throughout the offseason, though they ultimately opted to keep him in the bullpen instead. Unfortunately, even a relief role hasn’t been available to him so far this year as he’s been sidelined since the start of camp due to shoulder soreness.

Hoeing will now be unavailable for at least another month, as he’ll first be eligible to be activated on May 26 due to having spent the entire season to this point on the injured list. His transfer to the 60-day IL may seem alarming at first glance, but it appears as though it may be nothing more than a procedural move. After all, MLB.com notes that Hoeing has already begun throwing bullpen sessions. It’s unclear when the righty could begin a rehab assignment, but given his lack of work in camp it would be understandable if the Padres wanted to give him a relatively long one to build up towards a return to the majors. A longer rehab stint could leave Hoeing away from the Padres until late May anyway.

Padres Notes: Reynolds, Hoeing, Paplham

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Sean Reynolds is suffering from a stress reaction in his right foot, and Kevin Acee of the San Diego Union-Tribune writes that Reynolds will be wearing a walking boot “for at least the next week and a half.”  Padres manager Mike Shildt didn’t yet know how much ramp-up time Reynolds might need after the boot is removed, leaving some doubt as to whether or not Reynolds might not be part of the Opening Day roster.

A knee injury already cut short Reynolds’ rookie season after nine MLB appearances and 11 innings, ending a very first strong first impression for the right-hander.  Reynolds had an 0.82 ERA and 42.9% strikeout rate during his small sample size, with those eye-popping stats countered by a more modest 10.2% walk rate.  In the minors, Reynolds had good strikeout numbers and plenty of control problems, though he only entering his fifth pro season as a pitcher after transitioning from first base and outfield work in his first four years in the Marlins’ farm system.

Reynolds’ fastball clocked within the 95mph range in the minors, but he dialed it up to 96.9mph during his brief stint in San Diego last year.  The 26-year-old’s live arm made him a contender to be part of the Padres’ bullpen mix, though his foot injury now sets back his chances of breaking camp with the team.  Reynolds has a minor league option remaining, giving the Padres some flexibility in moving him back and forth from Triple-A after he gets healthy.

Bryan Hoeing also made an impact after coming to the Padres along with Tanner Scott at last summer’s trade deadline, as Hoeing posted a 1.52 ERA in 23 2/3 regular-season innings.  However, Hoeing is also a question mark in camp, as his first throwing session won’t take place until tomorrow due to a sore right shoulder.

Tests haven’t revealed any structural damage, but Hoeing told Acee that his shoulder has been “barking.”  The injury isn’t thought to be overly serious, yet Hoeing’s timeline or his own chances of being part of the Opening Day roster can’t be determined until Hoeing gets onto a mound and starts his throwing progression.

In other pitching news, right-handed pitching prospect Cole Paplham appears to have avoided the worst after he was hit in the face by an Aaron Bracho line drive during today’s game with the Dodgers.  Paplham obviously needed some time to recover, and eventually walked to a golf cart that took him off the field.  Shildt said Paplham was undergoing testing and “he was conscious, seemed alert, knew where he was.  But clearly a scary thing.”

Padres To Stretch Out Stephen Kolek As Starter

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Padres manager Mike Shildt spoke to the media today and provided some updates on the club’s pitching plans. Per Dennis Lin of The Athletic, Shildt said that right-hander Stephen Kolek will be stretched out as a starter but fellow righty Bryan Hoeing will stay in a relief role this year.

Kolek, 28 in April, worked as a reliever in 2024 but has some starting experience. In the Mariners’ system in 2022, he made 27 Double-A starts and logged 143 2/3 innings, allowing 4.51 earned runs per nine. His 21.7% strikeout rate, 10.4% walk rate and 47% ground ball rate were all close to average marks. In 2023, the Mariners used him largely in a relief role. He tossed 69 1/3 innings across 49 minor league appearances, mostly in Triple-A, with a 3.76 ERA, 26.2% strikeout rate, 11% walk rate and 59% ground ball rate.

The Padres plucked him in the Rule 5 draft just over a year ago and kept him in the bullpen throughout 2024. He spent the final two months of the season on the injured list due to right forearm tendonitis but still managed to log 46 2/3 innings over 42 appearances. His 5.21 ERA doesn’t immediately impress, nor does his 18.5% strikeout rate. However, his 55.9% ground ball rate and 5.7% walk rate were both strong numbers. He had some bad luck in the form of a .359 batting average on balls in play and 64.3% strand rate, which is why his 3.57 FIP and 3.41 SIERA were both significantly better than his ERA. Statcast had his barrel rate in the 96th percentile of qualified pitchers and his average exit velocity in the 71st.

Kolek threw six different pitches in 2024: a sinker, cutter, four-seamer, sweeper, slider and changeup. He held lefties to a .271/.326/.294 batting line. Righties put up a much stronger .327/.373/.500 performance, though with a lot of that aforementioned poor batted ball luck coming in those righty-on-righty matchups, as he had a .386 BABIP in those.

Whether that arsenal can help him turn a major league lineup over a few times is anyone’s guess at this point. The fact that he tamped down damage from lefties is encouraging. If he has a significant turnaround in the BABIP department against righties, perhaps it can work. However, there are no guarantees, especially with Kolek having not started for two years now.

The fact that the Padres are considering such a move is a reflection of their financial situation. Bullpen-to-rotation conversions are popular these days but they usually involve guys with lengthy track records of major league success as relievers, such as Seth Lugo, or former top prospects like Garrett Crochet. Kolek, on the other hand, is a Rule 5 guy who had a 5.21 ERA in his MLB debut and was on the IL for the final two months of the year.

But there are some interesting numbers under the hood, as mentioned, and the Padres need to find cheap solutions. The payroll has clearly been tight going back to last offseason, which is what led to the Juan Soto trade. This winter, trade rumors have circled around guys like Dylan Cease, Michael King, Luis Arráez and Robert Suarez.

Trading Cease or King would further deplete a rotation that is already a big question mark. Those two and Yu Darvish give the club a solid front three but there’s little certainty beyond that. Joe Musgrove underwent Tommy John surgery in October and will likely miss the entire 2025 season.

There are some options for the back end on the roster, though there are question marks with those. Matt Waldron had a 3.71 ERA in the first half last year but 8.10 in the second half. Randy Vásquez had a 4.87 ERA last year but worked around a 14.4% strikeout rate. Jhony Brito was similar, with a 4.12 ERA and 15.7% strikeout rate, pitching only in relief. Juan Nunez, Omar Cruz and Ryan Bergert have yet to make their major league debuts.

With no real budget to work with and concerning rotation depth, the Padres might have to get creative, especially if they eventually trade Cease or King. There’s little harm in stretching a guy out in spring, as it’s generally considered easier to then move to a bullpen role later, as opposed to the other way around. He can also now be optioned, with the Rule 5 restrictions no longer in place, so getting some Triple-A work is possible.

It was reported in December that the club was considering Kolek, Hoeing and Adrián Morejón for rotation moves, though reporting from earlier this month took Morejón off the table. It now seems that Hoeing will also stick in a relief role going forward. Acquired from the Marlins alongside Tanner Scott at the deadline, Hoeing has a 4.80 ERA in 137 big league innings over the past three seasons. That includes a 2.18 ERA last year, between Miami and San Diego. He has fairly neutral splits and has thrown six different pitches in his career, providing some logic for considering the rotation move, but it seems he’ll stick in the bullpen.

Padres Have Considered Luis Arráez Trade

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The Padres seem to have a budget crunch and are considering all kinds of options for how to stop feeling the squeeze. It was reported this week that they have been exploring the possibility of trading right-hander Dylan Cease and now Kevin Acee of the San Diego Union-Tribune reports that they have discussed trading infielder Luis Arráez. Jon Heyman of The New York Post reports that they have received inquires on Cease, Arráez and Xander Bogaerts as well.

It was reported this week that the club was probably going to have to drop its payroll commitments. They had a $169MM payroll in 2024 but RosterResource currently projects them to be at $210MM next year. It’s not known exactly where they need to wind up, but it should be somewhere in between those two numbers. Acee’s report from today suggests that Preller can be above $169MM but not by much. Trading prospects doesn’t seem to be a strong consideration since the club has done a lot of that in recent years. The farm is still highlighted by Leodalis De Vries and Ethan Salas but all reports have suggested those two are fairly untouchable.

That’s a tricky situation since the Friars need to upgrade at catcher, in an outfield corner and in the rotation. Doing so while also cutting spending is a difficult tightrope to walk. It’s a similar situation to last winter, when the Padres also had to scale back the budget but had notable concerns about the pitching depth and outfield.

President of baseball operations A.J. Preller somehow made it work by trading Juan Soto to the Yankees for a pile of pitchers, including Michael King and Drew Thorpe, with the latter then used to acquire Cease. They also moved shortstop prospect Jackson Merrill to center field, skipping him over Triple-A, and struck gold by signing Jurickson Profar for just $1MM. They ended up having a good season and getting back into the playoffs but now face another tough balancing act.

Bogaerts, Manny Machado, Fernando Tatis Jr., Joe Musgrove and Yu Darvish are all making big money but those contracts are hard to move, both because the players are key parts of the roster and each has a full no-trade clause. Cease and Arráez, however, have no such protection and both are controlled for just one more season via arbitration. MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projects Arráez for a salary of $14.6MM next year and Cease for $13.7MM.

That amount of money is perhaps a sweet spot. The players should have surplus value, meaning they would generate interest from other clubs, but the numbers are also big enough where a trade would reduce San Diego’s payroll by a notable amount.

It will be a delicate line for Preller to walk, especially with Cease. The rotation is already thin as it is, with Musgrove slated to miss most or all of 2025 recovering from Tommy John surgery. There’s a strong front three of Cease, King and Darvish but question marks after that. Moving Cease could save some money and bring back a return of some kind, but it would make the rotation depth even thinner. Getting Roki Sasaki would be ideal since he’s very good and will be limited to a small signing bonus, but there’s no guarantees there and it will be another month before there’s clarity on the situation.

One thing that could help is converting a reliever to a full-time starting role, as they did with King last year and Seth Lugo before. AJ Cassavell of MLB.com relays that Preller has identified Adrián Morejón, Bryan Hoeing and Stephen Kolek as candidates for such a move.

MLBTR looked into the possibility of stretching out Morejón in October, though MLBTR readers were fairly split on the idea, with a slight majority favoring him staying in the bullpen. The argument for stretching him out is that he was once a highly-regarded starting pitching prospect before getting derailed by injuries. In 2024, he was healthy enough to avoid the IL all year, tossing 63 2/3 innings out of the bullpen with a 2.83 ERA, 26.1% strikeout rate, 7.7% walk rate and 51.4% ground ball rate. The Padres could just keep him in that role since it worked for him but they could also view that healthy season as a springboard to a larger workload in 2025.

Neither Hoeing nor Kolek had the same prospect pedigree as Morejón but both have largely worked in relief after coming up as starters in the minors. Hoeing tossed 53 2/3 innings in 2024 with a 2.18 ERA, 20.5% strikeout rate, 6.7% walk rate and 48.3% ground ball rate. Kolek tossed 46 2/3 innings with a 5.21 ERA, 18.5% strikeout rate, 5.7% walk rate and 55.9% ground ball rate.

Any of the three would be far cheaper than Cease. Hoeing and Kolek are still in their pre-arbitration years. Morejón’s injuries have limited him to modest $1.8MM projection for next year even though he has more than four years of service time. That price point is attractive but there’s obviously big risk in flipping an established starter like Cease and hoping for these guys to slot in for him.

With Arráez, it’s a bit easier to see the logic. Without him, the club could have an infield of Machado, Bogaerts and Jake Cronenworth from left to right. Finding a passable first baseman for less than what Arráez is slated to make is more plausible than replacing Cease with a pitcher of similar quality. They could flip Arráez for whatever clubs are willing to offer in return, then theoretically sign someone like Donovan Solano, Carlos Santana or Justin Turner for less money.

But on the other hand, the teams interested in Arráez could also look to those options as reasons to not give up much in trade. Despite winning three straight batting titles, Arráez is a fairly limited player since he’s not a strong defender, doesn’t walk much and doesn’t provide power. He’s certainly useful but Acee suggests Cease is more likely to move because the prices on starting pitching have been aggressive this winter, meaning he would have more interest than Arráez despite having essentially the same projected salary.

The Bogaerts possibility in interesting but the least likely of the three to come together. As mentioned, he has a full no-trade clause and would have to approve any deal. He’s also set to make $25MM annually for another nine years, leaving $225MM left on his deal. Heyman suggests that the strong spending this winter makes the deal look more attractive than before, but that’s still an underwater deal.

Bogaerts is three years older than Willy Adames, who just got a guarantee of $182MM from the Giants. He’s also coming off a down year in which he missed time due to injury and slashed .264/.307/.381 for a 95 wRC+. His shortstop defense has also been questionable enough that the Padres moved him to second base in deference to Ha-Seong Kim, though he did retake the position late in the year when Kim was hurt. Even if the Padres found a taker for Bogaerts, it would create a shortstop vacancy and add another item to the to-do list. Re-signing Kim is theoretically possible but he’s still recovering from shoulder surgery and might not be a factor in the first half of the season. The free agent market doesn’t have any more clear-cut everyday options.

Speculatively speaking, it’s a bit easier to see this kind of thing with Cronenworth, who had been in trade rumors in the past. Going into 2023, he and the Padres agreed to a seven-year, $80MM extension for the 2024-30 seasons. He then had a down year in 2023 and the Friars looked into moving him during last winter’s budget crunch but didn’t get anything done. He bounced back with a .241/.324/.390 showing in 2024 for a 105 wRC+, much better than his .229/.312/.378 line and 91 wRC+ in 2023.

He is still owed $71MM over the next six years but that’s less than a third of the money left on the Bogaerts deal. Cronenworth is also a bit younger, turning 31 in January. Trading him would open a hole at second base for the Friars, unless they are willing to play Arráez there, but free agency features Gleyber Torres, Jose Iglesias, Jorge Polanco and other possible replacements.

There are many factors for Preller to balance as he puts together next year’s club, but it’s at least a position he’s familiar with. Naturally, how he proceeds will depend on what other clubs are offering for Cease or Arráez or other players, but it will interesting to see him juggle all the different elements.

Padres Designate Austin Davis For Assignment

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The Padres have activated left-handers Martín Pérez and Tanner Scott, as well as right-hander Bryan Hoeing, the pitchers they acquired prior to yesterday’s trade deadline. In order to open roster spots for those three, they placed right-hander Stephen Kolek on the 15-day injured list with right forearm tendonitis, optioned righty Logan Gillaspie to Triple-A El Paso and designated lefty Austin Davis for assignment.

Davis is out of options, so a DFA was the only manner of pulling him from the MLB bullpen. The 31-year-old southpaw made seven low-leverage appearances over the past month. He allowed eight runs (seven earned) across seven innings, walking five with six strikeouts.

That was the first MLB work in two years for Davis, who combined for 56 frames of 5.79 ERA ball between the Red Sox and Twins in 2022. While his recent body of work against big league hitters hasn’t been especially impressive, he had a nice showing for El Paso early this year. Over 29 innings in the Pacific Coast League, he turned in a 3.10 earned run average. Davis fanned nearly 30% of batters faced in Triple-A, albeit with an elevated 12.9% walk rate.

With the trade deadline in the rearview mirror, San Diego’s only option is to put Davis on waivers (though it’s unlikely they’d have found a trade partner regardless). He has a previous career outright that gives him the ability to decline an assignment back to Triple-A, so he’ll likely become a free agent assuming he clears waivers.

Padres To Acquire Tanner Scott, Bryan Hoeing

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3:37pm: The Padres are sending left-hander Robby Snelling and right-hander Adam Mazur to Miami, reports ESPN’s Alden Gonzalez. Mish adds that infielder/outfielder Graham Pauley is also part of the return, and Daniel Alvarez Montes of El Extra Base reports that infielder Jay Beshears is the fourth and final player in the return. It’s a major haul that’ll send three of the Padres’ top remaining prospects (Snelling, Mazur, Pauley) to Miami in exchange for the pair of relievers.

3:32pm: The Padres are finalizing a deal to acquire closer Tanner Scott from the Marlins, ESPN’s Jeff Passan reports. Craig Mish of SportsGrid and the Miami Herald adds that righty Bryan Hoeing is also going to San Diego in the deal.

It’s the latest trade market strike for a Padres club that has already added righty Jason Adam in a deal with the Rays and that picked up Luis Arraez in another early-season blockbuster with Miami. The Scott trade is still pending the medical review of the players involved.

Scott, 30, has one of the lowest ERAs in the majors this season, with a pristine 1.18 mark in 45 2/3 innings of work. He’s averaged 97.1 mph on his heater, fanned 29.1%  of his opponents and induced grounders at a hearty 49% clip. The flamethrowing lefty has picked up 18 saves for Miami on the season and tacked on another 12 saves in 2023, when he tossed 78 innings of 2.31 ERA ball.

Impressive as Scott’s earned run average has been, he’s seen a resurgence of the command troubles that plagued him for his entire career prior to the 2023 campaign, when he went from a lifetime 14.2% walk rate to a tidy 7.8% mark. Scott has issued a free pass to a glaring 14.8% of his opponents this season, although a good portion of his command troubles came in the season’s first few weeks. He’s posted a 0.49 ERA, 32.6% strikeout rate and more manageable (but still too high) 10.9% walk rate dating back to April 20. At this point, last year’s strong walk rate looks like an aberration.

Scott is playing the season on a one-year, $5.7MM contract. He’s a pure rental for the Friars, barring an extension, and won’t net them any draft compensation, as his midseason trade renders him ineligible for a qualifying offer. The Padres are ponying up on a big offer in hopes of building a dominant bullpen that can help them navigate short postseason series with off-days baked in throughout the schedule. Scott and Hoeing join the aforementioned Adam, Robert Suarez (1.51 ERA in 41 2/3 innings), Jeremiah Estrada (2.92 ERA in 39 2/3 frames), Adrian Morejon (2.74 ERA in 42 2/3 innings) and Yuki Matsui (3.45 ERA in 47 2/3 frames) to round out a formidable relief corps.

Also joining the revamped bullpen is the 27-year-old Hoeing. He’s not nearly as established as Scott and the majority of his new bullpen-mates but is nevertheless enjoying a strong 2024 campaign. In 30 frames, he’s logged a 2.70 ERA with a below-average but respectable 20.2% strikeout rate against a 7.3% walk rate. Hoeing has kept the ball on the ground at a 48.9% clip in part because of a sinker that averages a solid 93.7 mph. He throws that pitch just over half the time and pairs it with a slider-splitter combo — and a rarely-used four-seamer — that helps keep both lefties and, to a lesser extent, righties off balance.

Although Hoeing will turn 28 in October, he’ll finish the season with just two years of MLB service time. That’ll make him controllable for the Padres not only for the stretch run in ’24 but for four additional seasons thereafter. He won’t be arbitration-eligible until the 2025-26 offseason at the earliest, and he still has a pair of minor league option years remaining. That gives them a potential long-term piece in the ’pen, which the Friars surely coveted in exchange for giving up what looks like an impressive collection of young talent that’ll continue to beef up a rapidly improving Marlins system.

Among the names going to the Marlins in the deal, the 23-year-old Mazur and 23-year-old Pauley have both made their big league debuts. Mazur is the more highly regarded of the two, having been a second-round pick back in 2022. He’s struggled to a 7.49 ERA through his first five big league appearances but has posted a 4.39 ERA with a 24.7% strikeout rate and outstanding 5% walk rate in 55 1/3 innings between Double-A and Triple-A this season.

Both Baseball America and MLB.com ranked Mazur as the Padres’ No. 4 prospect, calling him a potential mid-rotation starter on the back of 60- or 70-grade command. FanGraphs’ Eric Longenhagen offered a more measured approach recently, noting that Mazur’s command struggles in the majors and some lost life on his heater have him looking more like a potential reliever. There’s some variance in potential outcomes, as is to be expected with a 23-year-old starter who’s rapidly climbed the minor league ranks, but Mazur has the potential to be a rotation piece for several years in Miami.

Pauley went 4-for-32 in a tiny cup of coffee with the Padres earlier this season and has struggled through a down year in Triple-A, hitting just .228/.342/.390. Even as he’s stumbled there, however, he’s drawn walks at a 13.9% clip and played all over the diamond, logging innings at first base, second base, third base and in both outfield corners.

Again, both BA and MLB.com are more bullish on Pauley, ranking him inside the Padres’ top-six prospects, while FanGraphs pegged him at 13th earlier this month. He raked at a .308/.393/.593 clip across three minor league levels in 2023, and his versatility adds value to his profile.

Pauley was primarily a third baseman early on but began moving around the field as the Padres looked to make him more versatile (understandable with Manny Machado entrenched at the hot corner in San Diego). He won’t face that type of permanent roadblock in Miami — Jake Burger could move across the diamond following the trade of Josh Bell — giving Pauley a potential audition as an everyday third baseman or at least a bat-first utilityman.

While Mazur and Pauley have both reached the majors, it’s arguably Snelling who’s the headliner of the deal. The 20-year-old has struggled in the minors this year, but that’s in large part due to an aggressive assignment to Double-A, where he’s one of the league’s youngest players.

The No. 39 overall pick in 2022, Snelling breezed from Low-A to Double-A last season, posting 103 2/3 innings of 1.86 ERA ball with a combined 28.4% strikeout rate and 8.2% walk rate as a 19-year-old. He’s been roughed up for a 6.01 ERA in his second shot at Double-A — he only pitched 17 innings there last year — with strikeout and walk rates that have trended in the wrong direction (20.2% and 10%, respectively). Still, Snelling ranks as the game’s No. 44 prospect at MLB.com (though he’s fallen off top-100 lists at FanGraphs and BA).

Rounding out the Marlins’ return is Beshears, a 22-year-old Duke product whom the Padres selected in the sixth round of last year’s draft. He’s hitting .261/.373/.377 between Low-A and High-A this season, with a gaudy 13.6% walk rate against just an 18.7% strikeout rate. He’s a power-over-hit infielder who ranked near the back of the Padres’ top 30 on most publications, in part due to questionable arm strength that makes him a tough fit for the left side of the infield.

The Padres have held firm on their reluctance to trade top-ranked prospects like catcher Ethan Salas and shortstop Leodalis De Vries, but the remainder of their system has been picked over in the past four months thanks to acquisitions of Scott, Hoenig, Adam, Arraez and (in spring training) Dylan Cease. They’re a Wild Card team at best in all likelihood, but president of baseball operations A.J. Preller has never encountered a star player he didn’t love on the trade market and isn’t deviating from old habits in 2024. With Salas and De Vries still in tow, the Padres have the firepower to make another blockbuster add if they soften their stance on that pair, and the timing of this trade gives Preller a bit more than an hour to survey the remainder of the trade market.

Schumaker: “Everyone’s On The Table” For Marlins Opening Day Rotation

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Injuries are piling up for the Marlins pitching staff. Entering the spring, the Marlins knew they would have to survive the 2024 season without ace Sandy Alcantara. With Opening Day less than two weeks away, they could also be without Braxton Garrett, Edward Cabrera, and Eury Pérez. Thankfully for manager Skip Schumaker, Miami has rotation depth. That said, with so many injuries all at once, the depth is starting to run out.

Jesús Luzardo will lead the rotation this season. Trevor Rogers hasn’t looked the same since his All-Star rookie campaign in 2021, but he has big league experience and a healthy arm. So does Ryan Weathers. In addition, the Marlins are stretching out former closer A.J. Puk and preparing him for a starting role. Still, that’s only four of the five rotations spots accounted for. If all three of Garrett, Cabrera, and Pérez start the season on the IL, the Marlins will need one more starting pitcher.

Yonny Chirinos, currently in camp on a minor league contract, is an option. He has five years of big league experience, although he has only made 38 starts at the MLB level. The right-hander struggled in nine starts with the Rays and Braves last season, giving up 38 earned runs in 43 1/3 innings of work. Devin Smeltzer is another NRI with recent experience starting in the majors. Over the past two seasons, he has made 13 starts (66 2/3 IP) with a 3.92 ERA. Unfortunately, his 5.54 ERA as an MLB reliever and 6.82 ERA in the minors during that time put a damper on his respectable numbers out of the big league rotation. The Marlins’ 40-man roster is full, so the team would have to make a corresponding move to select either Chirinos or Smeltzer.

Given all the question marks surrounding the back end of Miami’s rotation, fans have begun to wonder if top prospect Max Meyer could make the Opening Day roster. Meyer has already been optioned to minor league camp, and as he makes his way back from Tommy John surgery, it seemed like the Marlins were going to take things slowly with the 25-year-old right-hander. However, Jordan McPherson of the Miami Herald recently asked Schumaker if Meyer could make the big league rotation out of camp. The manager replied: “I think everyone’s on the table.”

That’s far from a guarantee Meyer will make the Opening Day rotation. Still, it’s worth noting that Schumaker didn’t shut down the possibility. Meyer struggled in his brief big league cup of coffee two years ago, but there’s a reason he was the third-overall pick in the 2020 draft, and there’s a reason he remains a top prospect despite the fact that he hasn’t pitched since August 2022. Even if he doesn’t make the Opening Day roster, none of Miami’s other depth options will stand in his way once he proves he’s ready for a big league role.

In addition to Meyer, Chirinos, and Smeltzer, McPherson mentions Bryan Hoeing as another possibility for the Marlins rotation. Like Meyer, Hoeing is already on the 40-man roster; unlike Meyer, Hoeing is still in big league camp. Hoeing doesn’t have Meyer’s upside, and he profiles more as a long man out of the bullpen. Still, he’ll be capable of eating innings until Meyer is ready for a call-up or one of the injured arms is ready to return.

Marlins Looking To Add Starting Pitcher

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The Marlins pulled off one of the bigger moves of deadline season last night, acquiring back-end reliever David Robertson for a pair of promising low minors prospects. It’s the first of what is likely to be multiple additions for a Miami club that currently sits just outside the NL Wild Card picture.

Before the Robertson deal, Ken Rosenthal of the Athletic reported that adding both a starter and a reliever were Miami’s top priorities. They moved quickly on the latter front but figure to explore the rotation market over the coming days.

It’s surprising to see the Fish looking for rotation help at first glance. For a few seasons, Miami has skewed rotation-heavy and been light on offense. As a result, the Marlins dealt Pablo López to Minnesota for Luis Arraez in an effort to balance the roster.

That said, the Marlins’ rotation has been more good than exceptional in 2023. They rank 11th in starting pitching ERA, allowing 4.11 earned runs per nine innings. They’re third in strikeout rate (25.4%), 11th in walks (7.5%) and third in grounder percentage (45.9%). Starting pitching certainly hasn’t been a weakness, but it hasn’t been quite as effective as last year’s group — which ranked eighth in ERA behind a Cy Young performance from Sandy Alcantara.

Some amount of regression was probably inevitable. The López trade subtracted arguably Miami’s second-best starter. The Marlins rearranged their infield, installing Arraez at second base to push Jazz Chisholm to the outfield. They signed Jean Segura to move to third and dealt away Miguel Rojas while moving Joey Wendle to shortstop. All those transactions were designed to add offense — and the Arraez trade in particular has achieved that — but come with the expected effect of reducing the defensive efficiency behind a ground-ball heavy pitching staff.

That’s among the reasons for Alcantara’s step back, although there are myriad factors whenever a pitcher’s ERA jumps more than two runs (from 2.28 to 4.46). They’re obviously not going to displace Alcantara from the rotation, but his relative down season magnifies some of the other challenges Miami has faced.

Trevor Rogers has been on the injured list since the middle of April; a partial tear in his non-throwing shoulder leaves him with an uncertain return timetable. Free agent pickup Johnny Cueto lost a couple months to injury and was knocked around on his minor league rehab stint. Miami broke him in as a reliever before moving him back into the rotation last weekend.

Top prospect Eury Pérez has had a brilliant start to his MLB career, but he’s back in the minors temporarily as the club keeps an eye on his workload. The 20-year-old has already set a personal high with 86 2/3 innings between Double-A and the majors this season. Bryan Hoeing has gotten six starts but allowed a 6.66 ERA in 24 1/3 frames over that stretch. He’s been much better in a multi-inning relief role.

There have also been signs of promise, of course. Jesús Luzardo has taken another step forward and looks like a #2 caliber starter. Braxton Garrett, who opened the season in the minors, has stepped up with a 4.32 ERA and above-average peripherals through 100 innings. Edward Cabrera is missing plenty of bats and racking up grounders, though he’s walking over 14% of opponents and has an ERA approaching 5.00.

Miami has plenty of high-upside arms who are capable of starting a playoff game if they play into October. They don’t need to shop at the top of the rotation market. There’s some sense in adding a stable back-end starter to ease the workload on some of Miami’s younger arms — in effect playing the role the Marlins envisioned from Cueto when they signed him in January.

While rotation help now seems to be the front office’s priority, Ng and her group will also certainly remain on the lookout for ways to add to the lineup. They’ve been loosely linked to Jeimer Candelario and Tim Anderson within the past week. Rosenthal writes that Miami made a run at first baseman Carlos Santana before the Pirates dealt him to Milwaukee. The Marlins should have a few irons in the fire over the next few days as a somewhat surprising entrant into the rotation market.

Marlins Designate Sean Nolin For Assignment

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The Marlins have designated left-hander Sean Nolin for assignment, reports Jordan McPherson of the Miami Herald. He will be the corresponding move for the selection of righty Bryan Hoeing, a move that was reported on yesterday.

It’s a quick turnaround for Nolin, 33, who was just added to the club’s roster yesterday. The Fish needed a fresh arm, ideally one that could eat multiple innings, due to a couple of factors. Recent injuries to Johnny Cueto and Trevor Rogers thinned out the rotation, and then a Friday rainout led to a Saturday double-header which taxed the bullpen. In yesterday’s game, Miami were down 5-0 to Atlanta after five innings and put Nolin on the mound to soak up the last three innings. The southpaw allowed six earned runs on seven hits and two walks in that time, leading to the 11-0 final.

Nolin has had many twists and turns in his career, which started with the Blue Jays but has since seen him go to the Athletics, Brewers, Rockies, White Sox, the Long Island Ducks of the Atlantic League, the Mariners, the Seibu Lions of Nippon Professional Baseball, the Nationals, the Kia Tigers of the KBO League, the Twins and now the Marlins. He’s only seen MLB action with the Jays, A’s, Nats and Marlins, with a 6.34 ERA in 61 career innings scattered from 2013 to the present.

The Marlins will now have a week to trade Nolin or pass him through waivers. Since he has previous career outrights, he would have the right to reject an outright assignment in favor of free agency.

Marlins To Select Bryan Hoeing

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The Marlins are turning to right-hander Bryan Hoeing to start tomorrow evening’s game in Atlanta, manager Skip Schumaker told the team’s beat (relayed by Jordan McPherson of the Miami Herald). Hoeing doesn’t occupy a spot on the 40-man roster, so the club will have to formally select his contract.

A seventh round pick in 2019, Hoeing made it to the big leagues for the first time last year. He pitched in eight games (seven times out of the bullpen), allowing 17 runs in 12 2/3 innings of work. The Louisville product had spent the majority of the season with Miami’s Triple-A affiliate, where he started 17 of 18 outings. He pitched to a 5.07 ERA for their top affiliate in Jacksonville, inducing grounders at a very strong 53.7% clip but only punching out 12.1% of opponents.

At the end of the season, Miami successfully ran Hoeing through outright waivers. He remained in the organization and returned to Jacksonville, where he’s off to an excellent first few weeks. He’s allowed only six runs (four earned) in 17 1/3 frames over his first four appearances. Hoeing has maintained his stellar ground-ball rate while significantly upping the whiffs. He’s punched out just under 30% of batters faced while nearly doubling his percentage of swinging strikes per pitch.

Even in a limited sample, that was enough for the 6’6″ hurler to pitch himself back onto the radar. Hoeing still has two minor league option years remaining, so the Fish can cycle him between Miami and Jacksonville for the foreseeable future if he’s able to hold his 40-man roster spot for an extended stretch.

Miami’s 40-man roster is full, so they’ll need to make a corresponding move tomorrow. The Marlins just selected journeyman left-hander Sean Nolin onto the big league club this afternoon. Speculatively speaking, it’s possible they’re planning on a short-term stay in the majors for Nolin.

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