Padres Place Yu Darvish On Restricted List
The Padres finally announced their Opening Day roster on Wednesday evening. It more or less finalized a number of already known moves, though the biggest development is that starter Yu Darvish has been placed on the restricted list. Alden González of ESPN first reported that was the plan.
Darvish underwent elbow surgery last November. He won’t pitch at all in 2026. The expectation had been that he’d spend the season on the 60-day injured list. The Padres instead place him on the restricted list, which is for players who are under contract but are unavailable to play for various reasons. The restricted list is best known for its use when a player is suspended, though it’s more commonly briefly used when a player is away from the team for personal matters.
Players on the restricted list do not count against their clubs’ 40-man rosters, though that’s also true for those on the 60-day injured list. The more notable distinction is that teams are not required to pay players while they’re on the restricted list. It isn’t publicly known whether the team will continue paying Darvish any or all of his $15MM salary.
Of course, a team cannot place a player on the restricted list and avoid paying his contract merely because he suffered an injury. There’s surely more to this situation going on behind the scenes. There have been reports dating back to the end of last season about the sides negotiating some way to void the remaining three years on his deal. Darvish provided a statement in January, saying that he has not decided on retirement but confirming that the team, his camp, and the MLB Players Association have had conversations about terminating his contract. There hadn’t been any further updates on his situation until today.
His deal runs through 2028 and contains $43MM in remaining guarantees for his age 39-41 campaigns. The Padres would no doubt love to negotiate some kind of buyout or deferral plan that frees up short-term payroll space and lowers their luxury tax number. González points out that the still unsigned Lucas Giolito would be a sensible target for a team with questions in the back half of the rotation.
In 2024, Darvish agreed to a restricted list placement to attend to a family matter. He had previously been on the injured list at the time. The Padres offered to allow him to remain on the IL but Darvish opted to spend more than a month on the restricted list instead, voluntarily bypassing nearly $4MM in salary (link via Dennis Lin of The Athletic). The pitcher’s agent, Joel Wolfe, praised the team’s handling of the situation while noting that Darvish “just didn’t feel it was right to collect the money if he wasn’t fully committed to the rehab and coming back.”
There’ll presumably be an update from the team and/or Darvish’s representatives before long. The most immediate effect is that he’s off the 40-man roster. That’s a formality but was needed to officially select the contracts of Walker Buehler and Ty France, both of whom made the team last week.
San Diego placed seven more players on the injured list. Infielders Sung-Mun Song and Will Wagner went on the 10-day injured list, as both players are dealing with right oblique strains. Pitchers Jason Adam (recovery from left quad surgery), Griffin Canning (recovery from left Achilles surgery), Bryan Hoeing (flexor surgery), Joe Musgrove (elbow inflammation), Matt Waldron (which the team announced only as “surgery” after being a little more specific in February), and Yuki Matsui (left groin strain) all land on the 15-day injured list.
Adam was the only one of those players who held out hope of making the Opening Day roster. Kevin Acee of The San Diego Union-Tribune reported on Monday that he’d open on the injured list. It’s mostly to buy time for Adam to continue building up, as he made just two appearances at the end of Spring Training. He should be back sometime in April. In the meantime, this allows the Padres to carry both hard-throwing rookie Bradgley Rodríguez and the out-of-options Ron Marinaccio on the Opening Day roster.
Bryan Hoeing To Undergo Flexor Surgery
March 12: Hoeing will undergo flexor tendon surgery and miss the entire 2026 season, Acee reports. He’ll be paid around the MLB minimum and land on the 60-day injured list once the team needs a 40-man roster spot. Hoeing will qualify for arbitration next winter but could be a non-tender candidate.
March 9: Padres right-hander Bryan Hoeing may undergo some kind of elbow surgery. Kevin Acee of the San Diego Union-Tribune reports that the righty is rehabbing while he makes a decision about whether or not to go under the knife. Manager Craig Stammen tells Acee that the club expects the decision “relatively quickly.”
Just over a week ago, Hoeing was shut down due to some discomfort in his throwing elbow. Pitching coach Ruben Niebla seemed optimistic that it wouldn’t be a serious issue but perhaps new information has changed things.
Acee doesn’t specify exactly what kind of procedure is possible for Hoeing but most elbow surgeries require significant absences. On the extreme end, Tommy John surgery involves a recovery period of more than a year. Even something less serious like a procedure to remove bone spurs requires several months of recovery. Carlos Rodón underwent surgery for bone spurs in October and is targeting a return in April, a span of about six months.
There’s never a good time for a pitcher to have elbow surgery but right now would be particularly unfortunate for Hoeing. He seemed to have a breakout in 2024, posting a 2.18 earned run average in 53 2/3 innings, but he wasn’t able to build on that in 2025. A right shoulder strain put him on the shelf to start the year. He was activated off the IL in June but was mostly kept on optional assignment and struggled to get in a groove, posting a 4.70 ERA in Triple-A. He would be looking to bounce back in 2026 but surgery could get in the way of that.
Even if he can avoid surgery, Hoeing seems a lock to start the season on the IL. Even with him on the shelf, the bullpen competition looks tight. Acee writes that Kyle Hart is making a strong push for a spot. He has thrown 8 2/3 scoreless innings in spring training action thus far with seven strikeouts, allowing three hits and three walks while hitting one batter. He worked as a swingman last year but struggled, posting a 5.86 ERA in 43 innings.
Left-hander Yuki Matsui is a potential wild card, as he has been battling an adductor strain. Acee says Matsui has resumed defensive drills and throwing from a mound but is still questionable for Opening Day.
On paper, the Padres project to have eight bullpen spots taken by Mason Miller, Adrián Morejón, Jeremiah Estrada, David Morgan, Wandy Peralta, Bradgley Rodríguez, Ron Marinaccio and Matsui. Of those eight guys, Morejón, Peralta, Matsui and Marinaccio can’t be optioned. Of the four who can, Miller surely won’t be. Estrada and Morgan aren’t likely to be sent down either, given their strong results. Rodríguez is more plausible, since he has just seven big league appearances under his belt. Jason Adam is questionable for Opening Day. If he’s healthy, he would likely bump Rodríguez to the minors.
That would make it hard to squeeze in Hart, who does still have an option, unless Matsui starts the season on the IL. Things could also get tightened further when Matt Waldron returns. He is going to start the season on the IL but isn’t expected to miss too much time. He is out of options and would need to squeeze someone out or be squeezed himself, unless further injuries pop up.
Photo courtesy of David Frerker, Imagn Images
Latest On Padres’ Bullpen Outlook
Padres right-hander Jason Adam has been targeting the Opening Day roster as he finished off his rehab from last year’s torn tendon in his quadriceps. The right-hander said three weeks back that team doctors hadn’t told him “no” on the possibility yet, and Annie Heilbrunn of the San Diego Union-Tribune reports that Adam could get back into games soon. He’s been ahead of schedule in camp and is slated for one final simulated game this week before a likely Cactus League debut on the weekend.
The 34-year-old Adam is a major piece of a deep San Diego bullpen. Over the past four seasons, he’s worked to a 2.07 ERA with 92 holds, 24 saves, a 29.2% strikeout rate and an 8.4% walk rate across 256 2/3 innings between the Rays and Padres. If healthy, he’d join Adrian Morejon and Jeremiah Estrada as one of closer Mason Miller‘s top setup options.
A healthy Adam also leads to a relatively crowded bullpen that could force the Friars into some tough decisions. Miller, Estrada, Morejon and Adam would be locks for bullpen spots. That’s presumably true of righty David Morgan (2.64 ERA, 47 1/3 innings in 2025) as well. Lefties Wandy Peralta and Yuki Matsui are pitching on multi-year contracts and can’t be optioned.
That group accounts for seven of the Padres’ eight bullpen spots. Right-hander Ron Marinaccio is out of minor league options. Right-hander Bradgley Rodriguez has multiple option years left but has excelled in camp after impressing in a brief look last year. Righty Matt Waldron might start the season on the injured list, but he’s out of minor league options as well and would need to be added to the big league roster or designated for assignment. Bryan Hoeing is shut down with an elbow issue right now.
Having more talented relievers than bullpen spots available is obviously a nice problem to have, all things considered, and depending on the injury timetables of Adam and a couple teammates, the Friars might be able to kick any 40-man decisions down the road a bit for the early portion of the season. At some point, something will have to give on one of the players who can’t be sent down (whether due to contract or lack of minor league options.
That’s especially true if the Padres want to consider breaking camp with any non-roster invitees on the big league club. Veterans Walker Buehler, Marco Gonzales and Triston McKenzie are among that group, but manager Craig Stammen has been talking up the chances of a different former big leaguer for a potential bullpen job: right-hander Logan Gillaspie.
“He just goes out there, competes his tail off, lot of energy and enthusiasm, throws a ton of strikes and gets a lot of outs,” manager Craig Stammen told MLB.com’s AJ Cassavell when asked about Gillaspie. He noted that Gillaspie could be used in a multi-inning role, providing some length early in games if necessary.
The 28-year-old Gillaspie has pitched in each of the past four major league seasons, including 18 innings for San Diego across the 2024-25 campaigns. He’s had pedestrian results overall, but Gillaspie is a familiar hand for many Padres coaches and is in the midst of a strong spring training (7 2/3 shutout frames, 8-to-2 K/BB ratio). Cassavell suggests that Gillaspie is viewed as having a real chance to make the club, particularly if the Padres open the season with multiple veterans on the injured list.
Padres Shut Bryan Hoeing Down With Elbow Discomfort
Padres right-hander Bryan Hoeing is likely to miss the start of the season, according to a report from Kevin Acee of the San Diego Union-Tribune. Per Acee, Hoeing is dealing with some discomfort in his throwing elbow and has been shut down by San Diego as a result. Acee added that pitching coach Ruben Niebla expressed some early optimism about the severity of the injury.
“We don’t think it’s as serious (as it could be), but we have to be conscious and take a look at it and be able to make the right assessments,” Niebla told reporters, as relayed by Acee.
More details on Hoeing’s status and timeline for return will surely be available in the coming days, once the team has had the opportunity to get Hoeing’s elbow looked at. In any case, it makes sense for the Padres to be extremely cautious with Hoeing at this point given how damaging a severe elbow injury can be to a player’s career. That’s especially true for the 29-year-old Hoeing, who pitched just eight innings in 2025 due to shoulder issues that left him sidelined for much of the 2025 season.
Despite that injury-plagued campaign last year, Hoeing figures to be firmly in the Padres’ bullpen mix if healthy. He enjoyed a breakout campaign with the Marlins in 2024 that got even better after being traded (alongside Tanner Scott) to San Diego at that year’s trade deadline. The righty sports a 2.34 ERA in 61 2/3 innings of work since the start of the 2024 season, and has posted a sterling 1.99 ERA in 25 appearances as a member of the Padres. While he’s not much of a strikeout pitcher, with a measly 19.5%, a 50.3% ground ball rate more than makes up for the lack of whiffs. That in combination with a manageable walk rate has led even more advanced metrics like SIERA (3.77) to be generally impressed with his work over the past two years in spite of their general favor for pitchers with high strikeout rates.
Of course, in a stacked Padres bullpen that likely left Hoeing in position to receive only middle relief work, as the late innings are set to be handled by a combination of Mason Miller, Adrian Morejon, Jeremiah Estrada, Jason Adam, and David Morgan. Hoeing could theoretically work his way into that mix with another big year like 2024, but for now seems more likely to handle the middle innings alongside Yuki Matsui when the pair are healthy. Matsui has also been sidelined of late due to an adductor strain, but Acee suggests the 30-year-old southpaw is more likely to be ready for the start of the season than Hoeing. Comments from Niebla seem to corroborate that, as the team’s pitching coach actually suggested Matsui could start throwing off the mound later this week.
Padres Designate Jason Heyward For Assignment
The Padres announced this afternoon that they’ve designated outfielder Jason Heyward for assignment. The move makes room on the 40-man roster for right-hander Bryan Hoeing, who has been activated from the 60-day injured list. Righty Sean Reynolds was optioned to make room for Hoeing on the active roster.
Heyward, 35, is a veteran of 16 MLB seasons who has enjoyed a decorated career since being selected 14th overall by the Braves in the 2007 draft. A well-regarded talent in the draft who rose to become the sport’s consensus #1 prospect prior to his big league debut in 2010, he turned in a brilliant inaugural campaign that year and finished second in NL Rookie of the Year voting behind Buster Posey. He went on to hit .268/.353/.431 with Atlanta and St. Louis across his first six years in the majors before he reached free agency.
The outfielder’s elite defense in right field, solid hitting (118 wRC+), and the fact that he was entering free agency ahead of his age-26 campaign all made him one of the top free agents on the market. He eventually signed with the Cubs on an eight-year deal that went down as a bit of an albatross. While Heyward won a pair of Gold Gloves and a World Series championship during his time in Chicago, he hit just .245/.323/.377 (88 wRC+) across seven seasons with the Cubs and was ultimately designated for assignment prior to the final year of his contract.
For many players, getting DFA’d at the end of a large contract represents the end of the line. That wasn’t the case for Heyward, however, as he managed to bounce back with the Dodgers in 2023 and slash .269/.340/.473 (120 wRC+) across 124 games as their regular right fielder. He re-signed in Los Angeles for the 2024 season and turned in a roughly league average performance but was squeezed off the roster in the second half by trade deadline acquisitions. That led to a brief stint with the Astros where he hit .218/.283/.473 (104 wRC+) before returning to free agency and signing with the Padres.
Heyward’s production has fallen off some in his age-35 season, however. The outfielder has been limited to just 34 games by injury but even when healthy enough to play has hit a paltry .176/.223/.271 in 95 plate appearances. That’s difficult production to swallow from left field, especially for a player whose once-elite defense has grown shaky with age. With Gavin Sheets having settled into left field fairly nicely this season (122 wRC+) and the approach of trade season offering a new opportunity to add reinforcements, the Padres clearly felt that they had better uses for Heyward’s 40-man roster spot. The veteran was on the injured list due to knee inflammation at the time of his DFA, but the Padres will nonetheless have one week to either trade Heyward or place him on release waivers. As an injured player, Heyward cannot be outrighted to the minor leagues.
Heyward’s departure from the roster makes room for the return of Hoeing. The right-hander has spent most of his career with the Marlins but was traded to San Diego as part of the Tanner Scott trade last summer. 2024 was a banner year for the righty, as he posted a 2.18 ERA and 3.32 FIP across 53 2/3 relief innings, including a microscopic 1.52 ERA across 23 2/3 frames as a Padre. He was a surefire bet to be part of San Diego’s late-inning mix this year before right shoulder issues left the start of his season delayed. Now that he’s back in the mix, it wouldn’t be a surprise to see him start getting high leverage opportunities with the Friars moving forward.
Padres Select David Morgan
The Padres announced this afternoon that they’ve selected the contract of right-hander David Morgan. Righty Logan Gillaspie is headed for the 15-day injured list due to a left oblique strain, which creates space for Morgan on the active roster. Righty Bryan Hoeing was transferred to the 60-day IL to open up a 40-man roster spot for Morgan.
Morgan, 25, is in line to make his big league debut once he gets into a game. Signed as an undrafted free agent by the Padres back in 2022, the right-hander made just three complex league appearances in his first year with the club. He pitched to decent results in Single- and High-A in 2023 but took a step backwards last year when he struggled to a 5.35 ERA in 22 appearances at the Double-A level. He struck out just 18.9% of his opponents while walking 11.2%, but the first few appearances of his return to the level this year have gone much more smoothly. Morgan has pitched to a 3.12 ERA across seven outings this season with an incredible 50% strikeout rate and just one walked allowed. That dominating run of outings at Double-A was evidently enough for the Padres to give Morgan a look at the big league level despite it lasting just 8 2/3 innings and the righty having no experience at even Triple-A so far in his career.
Morgan’s addition to the roster is made possible by the departure of Logan Gillaspie, who was selected to the roster earlier this month. Gillaspie was added as a long relief option and had pitched to a 2.57 ERA in seven innings despite walking as many batters as he’s struck out (4). The right-hander has now been sidelined by an oblique strain, however, and figures to be on the shelf for at least the next couple of weeks. Gillaspie has made only a handful of big league appearances prior to this year between San Diego and Baltimore, though he’s struggled in those limited outings with a 5.02 ERA in 37 2/3 innings of work entering this season.
As for Hoeing, the righty was acquired alongside Tanner Scott from the Marlins at the trade deadline last year. After struggling in his first two seasons with the Marlins, 2024 proved to be something of a breakout for Hoeing as he pitched to a 2.18 ERA in 53 2/3 innings of work, including a 1.52 ERA in 18 appearances with San Diego down the stretch. Hoeing was considered for a move into the starting rotation by the Padres throughout the offseason, though they ultimately opted to keep him in the bullpen instead. Unfortunately, even a relief role hasn’t been available to him so far this year as he’s been sidelined since the start of camp due to shoulder soreness.
Hoeing will now be unavailable for at least another month, as he’ll first be eligible to be activated on May 26 due to having spent the entire season to this point on the injured list. His transfer to the 60-day IL may seem alarming at first glance, but it appears as though it may be nothing more than a procedural move. After all, MLB.com notes that Hoeing has already begun throwing bullpen sessions. It’s unclear when the righty could begin a rehab assignment, but given his lack of work in camp it would be understandable if the Padres wanted to give him a relatively long one to build up towards a return to the majors. A longer rehab stint could leave Hoeing away from the Padres until late May anyway.
Padres Notes: Reynolds, Hoeing, Paplham
Sean Reynolds is suffering from a stress reaction in his right foot, and Kevin Acee of the San Diego Union-Tribune writes that Reynolds will be wearing a walking boot “for at least the next week and a half.” Padres manager Mike Shildt didn’t yet know how much ramp-up time Reynolds might need after the boot is removed, leaving some doubt as to whether or not Reynolds might not be part of the Opening Day roster.
A knee injury already cut short Reynolds’ rookie season after nine MLB appearances and 11 innings, ending a very first strong first impression for the right-hander. Reynolds had an 0.82 ERA and 42.9% strikeout rate during his small sample size, with those eye-popping stats countered by a more modest 10.2% walk rate. In the minors, Reynolds had good strikeout numbers and plenty of control problems, though he only entering his fifth pro season as a pitcher after transitioning from first base and outfield work in his first four years in the Marlins’ farm system.
Reynolds’ fastball clocked within the 95mph range in the minors, but he dialed it up to 96.9mph during his brief stint in San Diego last year. The 26-year-old’s live arm made him a contender to be part of the Padres’ bullpen mix, though his foot injury now sets back his chances of breaking camp with the team. Reynolds has a minor league option remaining, giving the Padres some flexibility in moving him back and forth from Triple-A after he gets healthy.
Bryan Hoeing also made an impact after coming to the Padres along with Tanner Scott at last summer’s trade deadline, as Hoeing posted a 1.52 ERA in 23 2/3 regular-season innings. However, Hoeing is also a question mark in camp, as his first throwing session won’t take place until tomorrow due to a sore right shoulder.
Tests haven’t revealed any structural damage, but Hoeing told Acee that his shoulder has been “barking.” The injury isn’t thought to be overly serious, yet Hoeing’s timeline or his own chances of being part of the Opening Day roster can’t be determined until Hoeing gets onto a mound and starts his throwing progression.
In other pitching news, right-handed pitching prospect Cole Paplham appears to have avoided the worst after he was hit in the face by an Aaron Bracho line drive during today’s game with the Dodgers. Paplham obviously needed some time to recover, and eventually walked to a golf cart that took him off the field. Shildt said Paplham was undergoing testing and “he was conscious, seemed alert, knew where he was. But clearly a scary thing.”
Padres To Stretch Out Stephen Kolek As Starter
Padres manager Mike Shildt spoke to the media today and provided some updates on the club’s pitching plans. Per Dennis Lin of The Athletic, Shildt said that right-hander Stephen Kolek will be stretched out as a starter but fellow righty Bryan Hoeing will stay in a relief role this year.
Kolek, 28 in April, worked as a reliever in 2024 but has some starting experience. In the Mariners’ system in 2022, he made 27 Double-A starts and logged 143 2/3 innings, allowing 4.51 earned runs per nine. His 21.7% strikeout rate, 10.4% walk rate and 47% ground ball rate were all close to average marks. In 2023, the Mariners used him largely in a relief role. He tossed 69 1/3 innings across 49 minor league appearances, mostly in Triple-A, with a 3.76 ERA, 26.2% strikeout rate, 11% walk rate and 59% ground ball rate.
The Padres plucked him in the Rule 5 draft just over a year ago and kept him in the bullpen throughout 2024. He spent the final two months of the season on the injured list due to right forearm tendonitis but still managed to log 46 2/3 innings over 42 appearances. His 5.21 ERA doesn’t immediately impress, nor does his 18.5% strikeout rate. However, his 55.9% ground ball rate and 5.7% walk rate were both strong numbers. He had some bad luck in the form of a .359 batting average on balls in play and 64.3% strand rate, which is why his 3.57 FIP and 3.41 SIERA were both significantly better than his ERA. Statcast had his barrel rate in the 96th percentile of qualified pitchers and his average exit velocity in the 71st.
Kolek threw six different pitches in 2024: a sinker, cutter, four-seamer, sweeper, slider and changeup. He held lefties to a .271/.326/.294 batting line. Righties put up a much stronger .327/.373/.500 performance, though with a lot of that aforementioned poor batted ball luck coming in those righty-on-righty matchups, as he had a .386 BABIP in those.
Whether that arsenal can help him turn a major league lineup over a few times is anyone’s guess at this point. The fact that he tamped down damage from lefties is encouraging. If he has a significant turnaround in the BABIP department against righties, perhaps it can work. However, there are no guarantees, especially with Kolek having not started for two years now.
The fact that the Padres are considering such a move is a reflection of their financial situation. Bullpen-to-rotation conversions are popular these days but they usually involve guys with lengthy track records of major league success as relievers, such as Seth Lugo, or former top prospects like Garrett Crochet. Kolek, on the other hand, is a Rule 5 guy who had a 5.21 ERA in his MLB debut and was on the IL for the final two months of the year.
But there are some interesting numbers under the hood, as mentioned, and the Padres need to find cheap solutions. The payroll has clearly been tight going back to last offseason, which is what led to the Juan Soto trade. This winter, trade rumors have circled around guys like Dylan Cease, Michael King, Luis Arráez and Robert Suarez.
Trading Cease or King would further deplete a rotation that is already a big question mark. Those two and Yu Darvish give the club a solid front three but there’s little certainty beyond that. Joe Musgrove underwent Tommy John surgery in October and will likely miss the entire 2025 season.
There are some options for the back end on the roster, though there are question marks with those. Matt Waldron had a 3.71 ERA in the first half last year but 8.10 in the second half. Randy Vásquez had a 4.87 ERA last year but worked around a 14.4% strikeout rate. Jhony Brito was similar, with a 4.12 ERA and 15.7% strikeout rate, pitching only in relief. Juan Nunez, Omar Cruz and Ryan Bergert have yet to make their major league debuts.
With no real budget to work with and concerning rotation depth, the Padres might have to get creative, especially if they eventually trade Cease or King. There’s little harm in stretching a guy out in spring, as it’s generally considered easier to then move to a bullpen role later, as opposed to the other way around. He can also now be optioned, with the Rule 5 restrictions no longer in place, so getting some Triple-A work is possible.
It was reported in December that the club was considering Kolek, Hoeing and Adrián Morejón for rotation moves, though reporting from earlier this month took Morejón off the table. It now seems that Hoeing will also stick in a relief role going forward. Acquired from the Marlins alongside Tanner Scott at the deadline, Hoeing has a 4.80 ERA in 137 big league innings over the past three seasons. That includes a 2.18 ERA last year, between Miami and San Diego. He has fairly neutral splits and has thrown six different pitches in his career, providing some logic for considering the rotation move, but it seems he’ll stick in the bullpen.
Padres Have Considered Luis Arráez Trade
The Padres seem to have a budget crunch and are considering all kinds of options for how to stop feeling the squeeze. It was reported this week that they have been exploring the possibility of trading right-hander Dylan Cease and now Kevin Acee of the San Diego Union-Tribune reports that they have discussed trading infielder Luis Arráez. Jon Heyman of The New York Post reports that they have received inquires on Cease, Arráez and Xander Bogaerts as well.
It was reported this week that the club was probably going to have to drop its payroll commitments. They had a $169MM payroll in 2024 but RosterResource currently projects them to be at $210MM next year. It’s not known exactly where they need to wind up, but it should be somewhere in between those two numbers. Acee’s report from today suggests that Preller can be above $169MM but not by much. Trading prospects doesn’t seem to be a strong consideration since the club has done a lot of that in recent years. The farm is still highlighted by Leodalis De Vries and Ethan Salas but all reports have suggested those two are fairly untouchable.
That’s a tricky situation since the Friars need to upgrade at catcher, in an outfield corner and in the rotation. Doing so while also cutting spending is a difficult tightrope to walk. It’s a similar situation to last winter, when the Padres also had to scale back the budget but had notable concerns about the pitching depth and outfield.
President of baseball operations A.J. Preller somehow made it work by trading Juan Soto to the Yankees for a pile of pitchers, including Michael King and Drew Thorpe, with the latter then used to acquire Cease. They also moved shortstop prospect Jackson Merrill to center field, skipping him over Triple-A, and struck gold by signing Jurickson Profar for just $1MM. They ended up having a good season and getting back into the playoffs but now face another tough balancing act.
Bogaerts, Manny Machado, Fernando Tatis Jr., Joe Musgrove and Yu Darvish are all making big money but those contracts are hard to move, both because the players are key parts of the roster and each has a full no-trade clause. Cease and Arráez, however, have no such protection and both are controlled for just one more season via arbitration. MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projects Arráez for a salary of $14.6MM next year and Cease for $13.7MM.
That amount of money is perhaps a sweet spot. The players should have surplus value, meaning they would generate interest from other clubs, but the numbers are also big enough where a trade would reduce San Diego’s payroll by a notable amount.
It will be a delicate line for Preller to walk, especially with Cease. The rotation is already thin as it is, with Musgrove slated to miss most or all of 2025 recovering from Tommy John surgery. There’s a strong front three of Cease, King and Darvish but question marks after that. Moving Cease could save some money and bring back a return of some kind, but it would make the rotation depth even thinner. Getting Roki Sasaki would be ideal since he’s very good and will be limited to a small signing bonus, but there’s no guarantees there and it will be another month before there’s clarity on the situation.
One thing that could help is converting a reliever to a full-time starting role, as they did with King last year and Seth Lugo before. AJ Cassavell of MLB.com relays that Preller has identified Adrián Morejón, Bryan Hoeing and Stephen Kolek as candidates for such a move.
MLBTR looked into the possibility of stretching out Morejón in October, though MLBTR readers were fairly split on the idea, with a slight majority favoring him staying in the bullpen. The argument for stretching him out is that he was once a highly-regarded starting pitching prospect before getting derailed by injuries. In 2024, he was healthy enough to avoid the IL all year, tossing 63 2/3 innings out of the bullpen with a 2.83 ERA, 26.1% strikeout rate, 7.7% walk rate and 51.4% ground ball rate. The Padres could just keep him in that role since it worked for him but they could also view that healthy season as a springboard to a larger workload in 2025.
Neither Hoeing nor Kolek had the same prospect pedigree as Morejón but both have largely worked in relief after coming up as starters in the minors. Hoeing tossed 53 2/3 innings in 2024 with a 2.18 ERA, 20.5% strikeout rate, 6.7% walk rate and 48.3% ground ball rate. Kolek tossed 46 2/3 innings with a 5.21 ERA, 18.5% strikeout rate, 5.7% walk rate and 55.9% ground ball rate.
Any of the three would be far cheaper than Cease. Hoeing and Kolek are still in their pre-arbitration years. Morejón’s injuries have limited him to modest $1.8MM projection for next year even though he has more than four years of service time. That price point is attractive but there’s obviously big risk in flipping an established starter like Cease and hoping for these guys to slot in for him.
With Arráez, it’s a bit easier to see the logic. Without him, the club could have an infield of Machado, Bogaerts and Jake Cronenworth from left to right. Finding a passable first baseman for less than what Arráez is slated to make is more plausible than replacing Cease with a pitcher of similar quality. They could flip Arráez for whatever clubs are willing to offer in return, then theoretically sign someone like Donovan Solano, Carlos Santana or Justin Turner for less money.
But on the other hand, the teams interested in Arráez could also look to those options as reasons to not give up much in trade. Despite winning three straight batting titles, Arráez is a fairly limited player since he’s not a strong defender, doesn’t walk much and doesn’t provide power. He’s certainly useful but Acee suggests Cease is more likely to move because the prices on starting pitching have been aggressive this winter, meaning he would have more interest than Arráez despite having essentially the same projected salary.
The Bogaerts possibility in interesting but the least likely of the three to come together. As mentioned, he has a full no-trade clause and would have to approve any deal. He’s also set to make $25MM annually for another nine years, leaving $225MM left on his deal. Heyman suggests that the strong spending this winter makes the deal look more attractive than before, but that’s still an underwater deal.
Bogaerts is three years older than Willy Adames, who just got a guarantee of $182MM from the Giants. He’s also coming off a down year in which he missed time due to injury and slashed .264/.307/.381 for a 95 wRC+. His shortstop defense has also been questionable enough that the Padres moved him to second base in deference to Ha-Seong Kim, though he did retake the position late in the year when Kim was hurt. Even if the Padres found a taker for Bogaerts, it would create a shortstop vacancy and add another item to the to-do list. Re-signing Kim is theoretically possible but he’s still recovering from shoulder surgery and might not be a factor in the first half of the season. The free agent market doesn’t have any more clear-cut everyday options.
Speculatively speaking, it’s a bit easier to see this kind of thing with Cronenworth, who had been in trade rumors in the past. Going into 2023, he and the Padres agreed to a seven-year, $80MM extension for the 2024-30 seasons. He then had a down year in 2023 and the Friars looked into moving him during last winter’s budget crunch but didn’t get anything done. He bounced back with a .241/.324/.390 showing in 2024 for a 105 wRC+, much better than his .229/.312/.378 line and 91 wRC+ in 2023.
He is still owed $71MM over the next six years but that’s less than a third of the money left on the Bogaerts deal. Cronenworth is also a bit younger, turning 31 in January. Trading him would open a hole at second base for the Friars, unless they are willing to play Arráez there, but free agency features Gleyber Torres, Jose Iglesias, Jorge Polanco and other possible replacements.
There are many factors for Preller to balance as he puts together next year’s club, but it’s at least a position he’s familiar with. Naturally, how he proceeds will depend on what other clubs are offering for Cease or Arráez or other players, but it will interesting to see him juggle all the different elements.
Padres Designate Austin Davis For Assignment
The Padres have activated left-handers Martín Pérez and Tanner Scott, as well as right-hander Bryan Hoeing, the pitchers they acquired prior to yesterday’s trade deadline. In order to open roster spots for those three, they placed right-hander Stephen Kolek on the 15-day injured list with right forearm tendonitis, optioned righty Logan Gillaspie to Triple-A El Paso and designated lefty Austin Davis for assignment.
Davis is out of options, so a DFA was the only manner of pulling him from the MLB bullpen. The 31-year-old southpaw made seven low-leverage appearances over the past month. He allowed eight runs (seven earned) across seven innings, walking five with six strikeouts.
That was the first MLB work in two years for Davis, who combined for 56 frames of 5.79 ERA ball between the Red Sox and Twins in 2022. While his recent body of work against big league hitters hasn’t been especially impressive, he had a nice showing for El Paso early this year. Over 29 innings in the Pacific Coast League, he turned in a 3.10 earned run average. Davis fanned nearly 30% of batters faced in Triple-A, albeit with an elevated 12.9% walk rate.
With the trade deadline in the rearview mirror, San Diego’s only option is to put Davis on waivers (though it’s unlikely they’d have found a trade partner regardless). He has a previous career outright that gives him the ability to decline an assignment back to Triple-A, so he’ll likely become a free agent assuming he clears waivers.