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Looking Through The Guardians’ Outfield Possibilities

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The Guardians surprised most onlookers by sprinting to an AL Central title last season, pulling away from the Twins and White Sox with an excellent September. Cleveland quickly dispatched the Rays in the Wild Card series before losing a closely contested Division Series against the Yankees.

There were myriad reasons for the Guardians’ success. Recurring themes were plus defense around the diamond and a general willingness to trust young position players to run with their opportunities. That was also the case in the outfield, a unit that was average overall but had a couple standout players.

Cleveland seems mostly content running things back with the same group. The Guardians have added at catcher and first base, bringing in Mike Zunino and Josh Bell via free agency. They’ve not gone outside the organization for an outfielder to this point. One could argue for adding a veteran bat considering most of the in-house candidates have limited MLB track records, and perhaps Cleveland eventually adds a lower-cost depth type like Chad Pinder or Robbie Grossman. There’s probably not an impact player coming, though, so it’s worth looking through the numerous in-house options who could vie for playing time on the Progressive Field grass.

Kwan is the most established of the Cleveland outfielders after a stellar rookie season. He hadn’t been a top-tier prospect early in his professional career but continued excellence as a minor leaguer garnered him a spot on FanGraphs’ top 100 going into last season. Kwan even exceeded those expectations, hitting .298/.373/.400 with more walks than strikeouts over his first 638 MLB plate appearances. He paired that with elite defensive marks in left field, earning a Gold Glove and a third-place finish in Rookie of the Year balloting in the process. Kwan has below-average power but does everything else so well he looks like a perfect top-of-the-lineup option for manager Terry Francona. So long as he’s healthy, the Oregon State product is the Guardians left fielder.

Straw seems likely to get another crack in center field, at least initially. Acquired from the Astros at the 2021 trade deadline, Straw stepped in as Cleveland’s primary center fielder from there forward. He’s an elite defender and baserunner and looked to have taken a step forward offensively that season, combining for a .271/.349/.348 slash between the two teams. The Guardians rewarded him last spring with a $25MM contract extension that runs at least through the 2026 campaign.

The 28-year-old’s first full season in Cleveland was mixed. He continued to play excellent defense, with Statcast crediting him for 13 outs above average for his work in center field. Like Kwan, Straw secured his first Gold Glove. The offensive output plummeted though. He hit only .221/.273/.291 across 596 plate appearances. By measure of wRC+, only Jonathan Schoop and Geraldo Perdomo were less effective hitters (minimum 500 PA’s).

Straw posted some of the league’s worst batted ball metrics and didn’t connect on a single home run. His defense and baserunning means he doesn’t need to hit much to be a worthwhile everyday player, but the Cleveland front office is surely hoping for a little more output at the plate. Straw doesn’t seem in imminent danger of losing his job, but posting another sub-.600 OPS through the All-Star Break could lead the front office to consider deadline possibilities to add a little more offensive firepower in center field.

Gonzalez, who turns 25 today, was yet another success story in a loaded Cleveland rookie class. The right-handed hitter posted a .282/.308/.506 line through 41 games at Triple-A Columbus to earn his first MLB call in late May. He stuck in the majors from then on and immediately hit the ground running. Over 382 trips to the plate, Gonzalez hit .296/.327/.461 with 11 home runs and 27 doubles. He had a couple heroic moments in the playoffs as well, connecting on the walk-off home run to eliminate Tampa Bay and a game-winning two-run single against the Yankees. Those clutch hits overshadowed a mediocre .226/.250/.323 overall batting line in 32 postseason plate appearances.

It was a strong enough season to put himself on the map as a potential long-term piece in the Cleveland outfield, and he’s the likeliest player to open the year in right. Yet there’s a fair bit less certainty in Gonzalez sustaining his excellent rookie form than there’ll be in Kwan’s case. Gonzalez has never been a favorite of most prospect evaluators thanks to questions about his aggressive approach and below-average corner outfield defense. Cleveland left him unprotected in advance of the Rule 5 draft as recently as the 2021-22 offseason as a result.

Gonzalez’s great year quiets those concerns to some extent, but they’re not completely answered. He swung at nearly half the pitches outside the strike zone he saw as a rookie, placing him near the top of the league in that regard. His 3.9% walk percentage was among the lowest in the game. Perhaps Gonzalez has special enough hand-eye coordination and power that it won’t matter. He’ll need to prove it in a second extended run against MLB arms.

If Kwan, Straw and Gonzalez is Cleveland’s Opening Day outfield, Brennan seems the player most likely to break into the mix off the bench. The left-handed hitter fits the Guardians’ mold of high-contact bats, having never struck out at even a 17% clip at any minor league stop. He went down on strikes just 12.2% of the time at Triple-A last season, hitting .316/.367/.471 with nine home runs and 15 steals across 433 plate appearances. He earned a late-season MLB look and played well in his first 11 games.

Baseball America ranked Brennan the #10 prospect in a deep Cleveland farm system this offseason. The outlet praises his contact skills, athleticism and arm strength but questions his power potential. Brennan can play center field but BA suggests he’s probably a stronger defensive fit in the corner outfield. It’s easy to point to some similarities between him and Kwan, although the latter’s minor league track record was a little better. Brennan’s likely a better hitter than Straw right now and could be a candidate to take increased center field reps if Straw continues to struggle offensively — particularly since Straw can come off the bench later in games when the Guardians are looking for their best defensive unit to protect a lead.

A bat-first utility option, Palacios also made his MLB debut in 2022. He didn’t break in as well as most of the other Cleveland rookies, hitting .232/.293/.286 without a longball in his first 123 trips to the dish. It wasn’t a great first look but Palacios had a quality .279/.371/.458 line with better than average strikeout and walk marks through 45 games at Triple-A. He can play the corner outfield spots and offer some depth on the right side of the infield.

Valera, 22, is more likely a midseason possibility than a candidate to break camp. He’s on the 40-man roster but only has 42 games of Triple-A experience. After a strong Double-A showing, he hit .221/.324/.448 with nine homers in 179 plate appearances at the top minor league level, walking at a quality 12.3% clip against a 25.1% strikeout rate. Valera is the #4 prospect in the organization at BA and regarded as a potential high-OBP corner outfielder at his peak; whether he’ll be ready to contribute to a win-now Cleveland club at any point in 2023 depends on how well he shows in his first full season at Triple-A.

A former first-round draftee, Benson is a high-risk upside play at the back of the 40-man roster. His minor league track record has been wildly inconsistent. He’s coming off a great 2022 showing in Triple-A, where he mashed at a .278/.426/.522 clip with 17 homers and 16 steals through 401 plate appearances. He earned a brief MLB look but sputtered to a .168/.252/.200 line over 28 games. The left-handed hitter has always intrigued with massive power potential in a 6’5″ frame and a very discerning eye at the plate. That’s been paired with huge strikeout tallies at times throughout his minor league career, although he only fanned in a roughly average 22.7% of his trips in Columbus last year.

That’s seven players, all of whom are on the 40-man roster and controllable for a long while. Cleveland’s particularly deep in left-handed options (only Straw and Gonzalez hit from the right side). There was enough depth in that regard the Guardians felt comfortable sending Nolan Jones — another lefty bat who profiled as a corner outfielder with José Ramírez entrenched at third base in Cleveland — to Colorado for infield prospect Juan Brito.

While there’s an abundance of interesting controllable outfield options in Cleveland, none has a lengthy track record of big league productivity. Kwan looks like the safest bet after his fantastic rookie year. Everyone else comes with question marks of varying degrees.

Straw and Gonzalez seem likely to get the first crack at jobs alongside Kwan again, though they’ll have some intriguing young players on hand as contingency plans. Supplementing the group with a veteran righty bat could be a nice luxury addition for president of baseball operations Chris Antonetti and his staff before the season gets underway. Any pickup would figure to be a low-cost complement to Cleveland’s various in-house young players, who’ll again be entrusted with significant roles as they look to repeat as division champs.

Guardians Option Franmil Reyes To Triple-A, Activate Oscar Gonzalez From 10-Day IL

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The Guardians activated outfielder Oscar Gonzalez from the 10-day injured list, as Gonzalez returns to action after missing just over a month with an intercostal strain.  To create roster space, Cleveland made the notable move of optioning the struggling Franmil Reyes to Triple-A Columbus.

Reyes also spent time on the IL this season, missing about four weeks due to right hamstring tightness.  Sandwiched around that IL stint was 280 plate appearances of subpar batting, as Reyes has hit only .213/.254/.350 with nine home runs.  Reyes is mostly a DH, but between his shaky glovework in his games in the outfield and with his performance at the plate, he has been a sub-replacement player, with -0.9 fWAR.

It isn’t at all what was expected after Reyes’ first four seasons of solid production, including a 37-homer season in 2019 and 30 more dingers last year.  The Guardians were certainly thinking they had one of the sport’s burgeoning young sluggers in their lineup, yet Reyes’ numbers have entirely fallen off.

He is still making lots of hard contact, but while there has always been a lot of swing-and-miss in Reyes’ game, his 37.1% strikeout rate is the worst of his career and among the worst in baseball.  Reyes’ walk rate has also plummeted to the 10th percentile of all hitters, after sitting above the league average in both 2020 and 2021.  In yet another dropoff, Reyes has struggled to hit sliders and four-seamers after crushing both pitches last year.

The Guards can only hope that some time in the minors can get Reyes on track, as the 2021 version of the 27-year-old would be a huge boost to the lineup.  Reyes is also entering his second year of arbitration eligibility, and while he’ll still get some level of a raise (but not a huge one given his lower numbers), it would seem unlikely at this point that the Guardians would consider a non-tender.  If Cleveland has doubts about Reyes over the long term, however, the Guards could consider dangling him in trade talks, especially with the team facing something of a 40-man roster crunch over the winter.

With Reyes struggling, Gonzalez is one of the players who has picked up some of the offensive slack.  Gonzalez was something of an off-the-radar prospect during his early years in Cleveland’s farm system, but he posted big numbers at Double-A and Triple-A after returning from the canceled 2020 minor league.  That performance led to Gonzalez’s first big league promotion this year, and he kept it rolling with a .285/.315/.431 over his first 130 PA in the majors.

Guardians Should Be In The Market For Another Hitter

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The Guardians hit the All-Star Break on a high note, sweeping the Tigers in a weekend series to pull to 46-44. Coupled with a slump from the Twins, Cleveland moved within two games in the AL Central standings and pulled to within 2 1/2 in the Wild Card race. They’ve outscored opponents by five runs over the course of the year, about what one would expect from a team that’s two games above .500.

Slightly above-average play is enough to hang around the playoff picture, particularly for a team in the sport’s weakest division. The team has done enough the front office is likely to explore ways to add over the coming weeks, particularly if they hold their own during the next three series. Cleveland comes out of the break with sets against the White Sox, Red Sox and Rays — each of whom is a direct competitor in the Wild Card race (with Chicago obviously also a division threat).

The Guardians have been a middle-of-the-pack team in most areas. They rank 17th with a 99 wRC+, with their .249/.314/.384 slash line checking in a percentage point below average. They’re a matching 17th in runs scored (391) and in rotation ERA (4.00) and strikeout/walk rate differential (13.4 percentage points). The bullpen and defense each check in around the back half of the top ten by most metrics.

Despite their generally well-rounded nature, a few positions stand out as areas for possible upgrade. Like most contenders, they could look to add some help at the back-of-the-rotation. Aaron Civale has been hit hard and went on the injured list last week after spraining his wrist; sixth starter Konnor Pilkington has struggled, and Zach Plesac has been just alright over the past two seasons after his excellent 2020 showing. There’s room for a back-end pickup, particularly if Civale is set to miss an extended stretch, but the Guardians have an abundance of pitching prospects and a strong developmental track record that could reduce their urgency to play for a top-of-the-market arm.

On the position player side, both center field and catcher have been offensive black holes this year. Neither seems like an area the Guardians will feel they have to address, though. Myles Straw signed a long-term extension just last winter. He’s not hitting, but he’s at least playing excellent defense that’ll keep him towards the bottom of the order on a regular basis. That’s even more true of Austin Hedges, but Cleveland has long prioritized a catcher’s work behind the plate than what he does at it. They’d probably be interested if the A’s made controllable defensive stalwart Sean Murphy available. A deal for the top rental, bat-first Willson Contreras, feels less characteristic, although one can make an argument for the Guardians to make an earnest pursuit of the Cubs backstop.

Even if they sit out the center field and catcher markets, the Guardians should be in on the top corner bats available this summer. They’ve gotten decent production out of the corner outfield, with rookies Steven Kwan, Óscar González and Nolan Jones all hitting the ground running. Cleveland doesn’t have to push any of them out of the lineup immediately, but there’s enough uncertainty with each that regression in any case wouldn’t be a huge surprise. Kwan has settled in as an average hitter after an otherworldly first week. González, who has missed the past three weeks with an intercostal strain, has solid numbers and obvious physical tools but has chased over 40% of pitches he’s been thrown outside the strike zone through his first 32 MLB games. Jones has an excellent minor league track record but just ten games of big league experience thus far.

Each of Kwan, Jones and González (when healthy) has done enough to stay in the lineup, but adding a complementary veteran with a longer track record would still fit. In the near term, that player could step in at designated hitter and cut into the playing time of Franmil Reyes, who is having by far the worst season of his career. Through 243 plate appearances, Reyes owns a .216/.259/.357 line. He’s hit eight home runs but is striking out at a 39.9% clip that ranks as the highest rate of any player with 200+ trips to the plate. That’d be insufficient production even were he bringing other value to the table, but it’s particularly striking for a player who’s primarily limited to designated hitter duties.

There are reasons for the Guardians to hold out some hope for Reyes to get back on track. He’d been an above-average hitter during each of his first four big league seasons, including a 37-homer campaign back in 2019. He’s still posting huge exit velocities and hard contact numbers, no surprise for a player of his strength. Reyes is swinging and missing more than ever this season, but he’s never been a good contact hitter. He’s thrived in the past in spite of strikeouts based on his power, and his numbers have ticked up since he returned from a three-week injured list stint. After hitting .195/.255/.278 through mid-May, Reyes owns a .245/.265/.468 showing over the past month.

He’s still struck out in 40 of his 98 plate appearances since returning, however, drawing only three walks over that stretch. With the Guardians right on the fringes of contention, they may not be able to afford him too much leeway to cut his swing-and-miss to more manageable levels. Adding a veteran bat would allow manager Terry Francona to reduce Reyes’ immediate playing time while guarding against regression elsewhere around the diamond. An outfield-capable player may be ideal given the limited track records of González and Jones, but were the team to add a DH/first base-only type, Reyes himself could be a corner outfield option if he can get on track. Josh Naylor has been excellent at first base this season, but he entered 2022 with an inconsistent MLB track record. As with the outfielders, there won’t be any thought of replacing Naylor right now, but some insurance in case he tails off in the second half could be welcome.

As far as potential targets, Josh Bell is one of the game’s most obvious trade candidates. The Nationals are sure to move him, although the Guardians could balk at taking on the approximate $3.9MM remaining on his salary from the deadline onwards. Trey Mancini is having a nice year and would draw interest if the Orioles deal him, but Baltimore’s recent run of solid play at least raises a question about his availability. The Marlins could fall far enough out of the picture to deal Garrett Cooper, who’ll only make around $1MM for the stretch run and is arbitration-eligible for a final time next winter. The D-Backs are willing to trade Christian Walker. He’s not much costlier than Cooper and can be kept around for two more years via arbitration.

None of that group is likely to require an overwhelming prospect return, and the Guardians abundance of pitching prospects and upper minors infielders could allow them to part with an interesting player or two from the middle tier of the farm system. None would burden the long-term payroll outlook, and they’d go a long way towards fortifying a solid 2022 roster that finds itself right in the thick of the playoff race with two and a half months left.

Guardians Announce Series Of Roster Moves

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The Guardians announced a batch of roster moves prior to today’s doubleheader. Left-hander Kirk McCarty has been recalled as the club’s “27th man” for the twin bill. The club also recalled infielder Gabriel Arias, with outfielder Oscar Gonzalez going on the 10-day injured list as a corresponding move. Furthermore, right-hander James Karinchak was reinstated from the 60-day IL and optioned to Triple-A, with fellow righty Tobias Myers being designated for assignment to open a spot for Karinchak on the 40-man roster.

The Guardians haven’t yet announced an injury designation for Gonzalez, but he was reportedly dealing with some abdominal tightness recently. This IL placement will put a pause on his nice breakout campaign, as the rookie has hit .285/.315/.431 through his first 32 big league games. Despite a 3.8% walk rate that’s less than half the league average, he’s hit enough to produce a 112 wRC+, indicating he’s been 12% better than the league average hitter overall. With him out of action, Richie Palacios could potentially be line for more regular playing time next to Steven Kwan and Myles Straw in the Cleveland outfield. Manager Terry Francona tells Mandy Bell of MLB.com that an MRI on Gonzalez revealed some swelling near his ribs that will shut him down for about a week.

Myers, 23, was first added to the club’s 40-man roster in November as part of a huge shuffle. At the deadline to add players prior to the Rule 5 draft, which ended up not happening, the Guardians designated seven players for assignment in order to add ten prospects to the squad. In addition to all of that, they acquired Myers from the Rays and added him to the roster as well. Originally drafted by the Orioles, he was traded to the Rays for Tim Beckham in 2017. Since then, he climbed the ladder in Tampa’s system, pitching in Double-A and Triple-A in 2021. He made 22 starts last year with a 3.90 ERA, 30.5% strikeout rate and 5.8% walk rate. That surely enticed Cleveland to bring him aboard as rotation depth, though he hasn’t been able to maintain those results this year. In 14 Triple-A starts, he has an ERA of 6.00, along with a 14.1% strikeout rate and 11.6% walk rate. Based on those diminished results, he has lost his roster spot and has now entered DFA limbo. The club will have one week to trade him or place him on waivers. Despite his poor season thus far, teams may be willing to take a chance on him on the hope he can rebound into his previous form.

As for Karinchak, 26, he seemed to emerge as an elite bullpen weapon in the shortened 2020 season. He threw 27 innings that year with a 2.67 ERA and an absurd 48.6% strikeout rate, though a concerning 14.7% walk rate as well. In 2021, he came back down to earth with a 4.07 ERA over 55 1/3 innings. His strikeout rate fell to 33.2%, still very good, but was also still issuing free passes at a 13.6% rate. He has yet to pitch in the majors this year as he began the season on the IL due to a teres major strain. He’s been rehabbing for the past month, throwing 11 Triple-A innings with a 5.73 ERA. He’s still getting Ks 32.1% of the time but also giving a free trip to first base to 20.8% of batters faced. There’s surely some rust to deal with after a long injury layoff, which he will try to shake off by staying in Columbus.

Guardians Designate Yu Chang, Select Oscar Gonzalez

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The Guardians announced a flurry of roster moves prior to tonight’s game, with left-hander Konnor Pilkington and outfielder Richie Palacios being recalled to the active roster. Outfielder Oscar Gonzalez has also had his contract selected, with Yu Chang being designated for assignment to make room for him on both the active and 40-man rosters. To clear space on the active roster for Pilkington and Palacios, Franmil Reyes has been placed on the injured list alongside Aaron Civale, whose IL placement has already been reported. Right hamstring tightness is the diagnosis for Reyes, per Ryan Lewis of the Akron Beacon Journal.

Chang has seen sporadic time in the big leagues with Cleveland in each season since his 2019 debut. In that time, he’s gotten into 131 games and made 358 plate appearances, but hit just .208/.265/.372 for a wRC+ of 71. Having exhausted his option years, the club was forced to designate him for assignment in order to open up a spot on the active roster.

Despite that lackluster batting line, it’s possible that other clubs could find some positives to focus on. Chang brings positional versatility, having played all four infield positions with competence. Statcast’s Outs Above Average considers him to be above average at each one, having valued him at +8 OAA overall in his career thus far. He also showed intriguing plate discipline in his first couple of campaigns, with walk rates above 13% in both 2019 and 2020, though that dropped to just 4.4% last year. He hasn’t walked at all so far this year, though he’s only been up to the plate ten times.

As for Gonzalez, he was a big international signing for Cleveland back in 2014, earning a bonus of $300K. Baseball America placed him on their list of top prospects in the system four straight years from 2017 to 2020. Their report on him notes that he brings a lot of power to the table but can be held back due to a lack of plate discipline. Last year, between Double-A and Triple-A, he hit 31 home runs in 121 games and hit .293/.329/.542 overall for a 130 wRC+. However, that came with a 22.2% strikeout rate and 4.4% walk rate. This year, in 41 Triple-A games, he’s already hit nine homers but is walking just 3.3% of the time, slashing .282/.308/.506, 110 wRC+.

Gonzalez joins an outfield mix that also features Myles Straw, Steven Kwan, Amed Rosario, Oscar Mercado and Palacios. Reyes had been the team’s primary designated hitter though, and with him now on the shelf until his hamstring recovers, there should be some DH at-bats to spread around.

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