AL Central Notes: Martinez, Hughes, Anderson, Royals
In an excellent interview with Travis Sawchik of Fangraphs, Tigers right fielder J.D. Martinez spoke about his completely revamped swing and revamped approach at the plate that he’s employed since signing with Detroit prior to the 2014 season (note: the interview contains its fair share of profanity). As Sawchik writes, Martinez is one of several hitters that has adopted an extreme fly-ball approach at the plate (Josh Donaldson and Justin Turner are other examples), aiming to elevate the ball above all else. “I always thought the perfect swing was a line drive [back to] the pitcher,” said Martinez, referencing a more conventional train of thought that is often instilled in young hitters. “I’d go out there and hit the ball perfectly, and it’s [a] single. Why is my perfect swing a single?” Martinez said he examined the swings of Mike Trout, Ryan Braun and Albert Pujols, wondering why his swing looked so different from those sluggers even though he was following his coaches’ instructions. Martinez said many of his teammates have asked him about the fly-ball oriented approach and added that he believes a tipping point is nearing, at which point conventional hitting wisdom will modernize.
A few more notes from the AL Central…
- As Twins righty Phil Hughes continues to build himself back from thoracic outlet surgery, he’s working on several changes to his approach, Mike Berardino of the St. Paul Pioneer-Press reports. Hughes, who is still not quite working at his typical velocity levels, focused on inside fastballs and his change-up in an appearance yesterday against a minor-league side. Increasing the usage of those offerings is part of the organization’s plan for Hughes to “bring some different stuff to the table” this year, per pitching coach Neil Allen. “It’s hard for a veteran guy who’s been doing things one way for as many years as he has to change,” says Allen. “But we’ve got to make him change.” The hope is that the varied looks will allow Hughes to re-establish some swing and miss in 2017. After reaching a swinging-strike rate of 8.9% in 2014, just under his career peak, he has fallen off in the past two seasons — with the bottom-line results also trending in the wrong direction.
- Indians right-hander Cody Anderson, who underwent arthroscopic elbow surgery back in November, has been shut down, according to Paul Hoynes of the Cleveland Plain Dealer (Twitter link). While there are not yet further details on Anderson’s situation, that’s obviously a disheartening development for both player and team. Anderson wasn’t likely to crack the Cleveland rotation, barring injury, but a notable absence would eliminate an experienced depth piece and potential bullpen option. The 26-year-old righty had his share of struggles in 2016, but overall he sports a 4.50 ERA and a 98-to-37 K/BB ratio in 152 Major League innings.
- Alex Gordon will appear in center field for the Royals this weekend, Jeffrey Flanagan of MLB.com tweets. While that’s not likely to be any sort of regular alignment, due to the presence of both Lorenzo Cain and, to a lesser extent, Paulo Orlando, the additional versatility that Gordon appears to be working on is worth noting. If he’s able to show well there, despite his age, Gordon could theoretically see more regular time at the position in 2018 and beyond. Cain is, after all, slated to become a free agent next winter.
Multiple Teams Interested In Brett Lawrie
TUESDAY: The Mets “don’t have any real interest” in Lawrie, per MLB.com’s Anthony DiComo (via Twitter). As he notes, New York does have quite a few depth options in the infield, and it seems the team is pleased with the quality on hand to provide protection for the questionable status of David Wright.
As for the Rays, the club wouldn’t be looking to utilize Lawrie at his accustomed positions of third and second, per Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times (Twitter link). Rather than competing for time in those areas, he’d be expected to appear at first base, DH, and perhaps even in the outfield.
Meanwhile, it’s worth wondering whether Toronto’s interest could be impacted by the slow progress being made by Blue Jays second baseman Devon Travis. As Ben Nicholson-Smith of Sportsnet.ca tweets, skipper John Gibbons says the club expected Travis to have advanced further by this point but will continue “to be cautious.”
SUNDAY, 4:10pm: The Royals, Mets and Blue Jays also have interest in Lawrie, according to ESPN’s Jim Bowden. A native of Canada, Lawrie played in Toronto from 2011-14.
12:33pm: The White Sox released Brett Lawrie on Friday, but the infielder might not be without a team for long. The Rays will at least consider signing Lawrie, reports Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times.
Now 27, the version of Lawrie who served as one of baseball’s top prospects before torching opposing pitchers as a rookie with the Blue Jays in 2011 (.293/.373/580 in 171 plate appearances) is long gone. A career .261/.315/.419 hitter in 2,417 lifetime PAs, Lawrie slashed a pedestrian .248/.310/.413 in 384 plate trips last season and failed to provide defensive value at second base (minus-4 Defensive Runs Saved, minus-5.5 Ultimate Zone Rating).
Lawrie has spent his career at both the keystone and third base, where the Rays have far better starting options in Brad Miller and Evan Longoria, but they find his right-handed bat intriguing, according to Topkin. Moreover, because of injuries, infielders Matt Duffy (shortstop) and Logan Morrison (first base) aren’t locks for Opening Day, so Lawrie could provide the club depth if they do end up unavailable. Jason Martinez of MLBTR and Roster Resource projects that Tampa Bay will enter the regular season with two out-of-options players, Nick Franklin and Tim Beckham, and minor league signing Rickie Weeks as its infield-capable bench choices. Like Lawrie, all three bat from the right side (Franklin’s the only switch-hitter of the group).
Heyman’s Latest: Royals, Cain, Russell, Bryant, Sanchez
Here’s the latest from FanRag Sports’ Jon Heyman…
- The Royals don’t appear to be in extension talks with any of their pending free agents (Lorenzo Cain, Alcides Escobar, Eric Hosmer and Mike Moustakas), Heyman reports, and with no progress, all four are expected to reach free agency after the season. K.C. hasn’t given up on the idea of re-signing “one or two” of the quartet, with Hosmer seemingly their top priority. If Hosmer can’t be re-signed, the Royals would then try to bring back “a couple of the others, at least in theory.”
- Cain reportedly asked for a six-year deal at some point in talks, though there haven’t been any recent discussions between Cain and the Royals. Cain will be the oldest of the four free agents (he turns 31 in April) and is coming off an injury-plagued season that saw him limited to 103 games due to hamstring and wrist problems.
- Despite Cain’s rough 2016 season, some sources close to the center fielder “express surprise he’s even still” with the Royals. Previous reports over the winter linked Cain to such clubs as the Rangers, Mets, Dodgers and Cardinals in trade rumors, and Heyman adds that the Rockies and Nationals also spoke to Kansas City about Cain’s services. Washington, of course, went on to acquire a younger and more controllable outfield addition in Adam Eaton at a very significant prospect cost. Colorado’s interest in Cain is rather unusual given that the Rockies were already overloaded with outfielders (Carlos Gonzalez, Charlie Blackmon, David Dahl and Gerardo Parra) even before signing Ian Desmond and converting him to first base. Depending on when the talks between Colorado and K.C. took place, the Rockies could’ve considered acquiring Cain and then perhaps converting Gonzalez to first base, rather than signing Desmond. Blackmon and Gonzalez were also the subject of several trade rumors this winter, so the Rockies could’ve been looking at Cain as a replacement if they’d moved one of their internal pieces.
- The Cubs and Addison Russell agreed to a one-year, $644K deal for the 2017 season, Heyman reports in a separate piece. (For specifics on the pre-arbitration process, check out these MLBTR posts from Zach Links in 2014 and Jeff Todd in 2015, respectively.) The agreement gives Russell a nice bump above the $535K minimum salary, a year before he becomes eligible for salary arbitration. Russell hit .238/.321/.417 with 21 homers over 598 PA for the World Series champs last season, a below-average offensive performance as per the wRC+ metric (95) that was more than made up for on defense — Russell posted 19 Defensive Runs Saved and a +14.3 UZR/150 over 1262 2/3 innings at shortstop last season.
- The Cubs are still in talks with Kris Bryant, who is also entering his last pre-arbitration year. It’s probably no surprise that negotiations with Bryant and his agent Scott Boras are taking a bit longer than usual given Bryant’s outstanding track record over his young career. Heyman suggests Bryant could approach the record contract given to a pre-arb player (the $1MM between Mike Trout and the Angels prior to the 2014 season).
- The Yankees agreed to a 2017 contract with catcher Gary Sanchez, Heyman tweets. Financial terms aren’t known, though Heyman specifies that the two sides reached an agreement and that a renewal wasn’t necessary, which would indicate that Sanchez will also be earning beyond the minimum salary. Sanchez exploded onto the scene in 2016, hitting .299/.376/.657 with 20 homers over just 229 plate appearances.
Lorenzo Cain Wants Long-Term Deal From Royals
Lorenzo Cain is among several key Royals who are unsigned beyond this year, but the center fielder would rather continue in Kansas City than head elsewhere in 2018, he told Jeffrey Flanagan of MLB.com.
“You can’t help but think about that,” said Cain, referring to his uncertain future. “You try not to, but it’s there. You know, if it were up to me, I’d be here long-term.”
As of late February, the Royals were focusing on extending another soon-to-be free agent, first baseman Eric Hosmer, and hadn’t engaged in contract talks with Cain, third baseman Mike Moustakas or shortstop Alcides Escobar. Unlike Hosmer, Moustakas and Escobar, all of whom have seriously underwhelmed at times, Cain has consistently turned in quality production as a Royal.
Since debuting in earnest with Kansas City during a 61-game 2012 campaign, Cain has hit .286/.336/.417 across 2,226 plate appearances. While that’s more of a respectable slash line than a star-caliber one, Cain has added further value defensively and on the base paths to establish himself as one of the majors’ most well-rounded players. Only nine of Cain’s fellow big leaguers have bettered his 61 Defensive Runs Saved and just six have outdone his 51.4 Ultimate Zone Rating over the past half-decade, while he ranks among the top 50 in FanGraphs’ BsR metric and has accumulated 94 steals during the same time frame.
Thanks to his all-around prowess, Cain has totaled 18.0 fWAR since 2012, good for 35th among position players and somewhere between Ian Desmond (18.5 in 3,168 PAs) and Dexter Fowler (13.9 in 2,768 PAs). Notably, Desmond and Fowler landed five-year deals worth between $70MM and $82.5MM as free agents during the offseason. Like those two, Cain is entering his age-31 season. So was Yankees outfielder Brett Gardner in 2014, when he inked a four-year, $52MM extension and eschewed a chance to hit the open market in 2015. That came after Gardner combined for 17.1 fWAR in 2,087 trips to the plate from 2009-13.
Of those three players, Cain’s closest comparable is Gardner, who has also mixed roughly average offense with plus defense and baserunning throughout his career. Cain could certainly have a case to exceed Gardner’s deal, though, particularly if he stays healthy in 2017. Cain only appeared in 103 games and amassed 434 PAs last year, during which he posted his worst batting line since 2013 (.287/.339/.408), as he missed all but one contest in September on account of a wrist injury. Fortunately for Cain, that won’t hamper him going forward.
“No problems with the wrist,” he informed Flanagan. “I’ve been taking some heavy cuts and I haven’t made a lot of contact yet. But the wrist is really good.”
With his wrist issue in the past, Cain figures to further make his case for a rich contract during the upcoming campaign. A bounce-back performance from Cain could help the Royals return to the form they showed in 2015, when they won their first World Series since 1985 and he was among their top contributors. But if the team endures a second straight mediocre season, an extension-less Cain might find himself in a different uniform around the summer trade deadline.
AL Central Notes: Indians, White Sox, Royals
The Indians plan to utilize Carlos Santana as the team’s primary first baseman, skipper Terry Francona told reporters including MLB.com’s Jordan Bastian (via Twitter). That means that Edwin Encarnacion will mostly serve as the team’s designated hitter, though the two will also exchange roles at times. While that’ll increase the wear and tear somewhat on Santana, who’s slated to hit the open market after the season, it will give him a chance also to show his defensive chops after lining up as the DH primarily in 2016.
More from the AL Central:
- The White Sox could welcome Todd Frazier back to action as soon as Wednesday, Dan Hayes of CSN Chicago tweets. Manager Rick Renteria says that the veteran has improved quite a bit over the past several days. Chicago is hoping to ease Frazier into action without inflaming his strained oblique; though the club would no doubt love to showcase him for possibly interested rivals, the priority no doubt is on making sure that a more significant injury doesn’t develop — potentially fouling up hopes that he’ll develop into a nice trade deadline chip.
- After struggling through a rookie season in which he hit .185/.231/.281 in 149 plate appearances, Royals middle infielder Raul Mondesi is “a different guy this spring,” manager Ned Yost told Jeffrey Flanagan of MLB.com. While the 21-year-old Mondesi has impressed thus far as one of four contenders for the Royals’ second base job, the fact that he has minor league options remaining could work against him, Flanagan notes. Of the other contenders, Cheslor Cuthbert and Christian Colon don’t have options left, so they look like shoo-ins for roster spots. Whit Merrifield, meanwhile, could be too valuable to the Royals as a utility man to demote. Nevertheless, Yost has left the door open for Mondesi to grab a spot. “The decision will come down [to] what is best for his development,” Yost said. “If he’s at a point where he can contribute … Defensively, his range is unbelievable. The coverage is unbelievable in terms of how far he can go side to side, and getting pop flies.”
- Royals DH/outfielder Brandon Moss is dealing with some lower back stiffness, as Rustin Dodd of the Kansas City Star tweets. He’ll sit out today’s action, though it seems there’s little reason for concern at this point. Moss is considered day to day.
Central Notes: Hammel, Soler, Adams, Masterson, Brewers
Righty Jason Hammel discussed his transition from the Cubs to the Royals with reporters including Patrick Mooney of CSNChicago.com. The veteran starter says he wasn’t ready to give up starting at this stage, which may have been in the plans had he remained in Chicago. “I felt like I had proven myself over and over and over again for three years there,” he said. “It is what it is. It’s the business side of baseball. And I’m very happy that I’m over here with these guys.” Whether there’s any sense of bitterness, Hammel says he won’t “hold grudges” or “burn a bridge;” he still owns a home in the city and suggests he could even end up returning at some point later in his career.
- That’s not the only storyline connecting the 2016 champs and their predecessors; there was also a rather notable deal that sent outfielder Jorge Soler to the Royals while delivering star closer Wade Davis to the Cubs. Naturally, the man tasked with harnessing Soler’s evident talent is Dale Sveum — the hitting coach who just happened to have managed the Cubbies before landing in Kansas City. “I still think he’s developing into what he possibly could be,” Sveum said of his new protege. “He’s been very good in camp so far, trying to make adjustments in his legs and things like that, knowing the issues that come with some of the mechanics he’s been using. But like I said, it’s still a development thing. As much as we’d all like to think (otherwise), it’s not a polished product, by no means.”
- Cardinals first baseman Matt Adams is looking to unify several offseason changes this spring, as Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch writes. He lost weight, worked on building core strength, and re-worked his swing. Bringing these modifications together, and making it all work against MLB-caliber pitching, has been a challenge. But the organization is remaining patient with the lefty slugger, who’s entering a critical year for charting his future with the club.
- It doesn’t appear as if the Reds will pursue a deal with free-agent righty Justin Masterson, as Zach Buchanan of the Cincinnati Enquirer suggests on Twitter. While the organization took a look at the former workhorse recently, it evidently did not see enough promise to add another arm to the spring mix.
- Brewers manager Craig Counsell discussed the status of his team’s bench competition, as Tom Haudricourt and Todd Rosiak of the Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel report. Hernan Perez appears to have a very strong shot at making the club as a reserve outfield and infield options. Michael Reed, on the other hand, still “has things to prove at the Triple-A level,” according to Counsell.
AL Central Notes: White Sox, Royals, Romero, Jimenez
In an interview with MLB.com’s Scott Merkin, White Sox GM Rick Hahn again stated that there’s “no economic pressure” and “no timing pressure” to trade left-hander Jose Quintana. “It’s more about making sure if we were to make a major move, that we are getting an appropriate return,” Hahn continued. While the Sox have had numerous trade discussions centering on Quintana this winter, Hahn noted that there’s yet to be an offer presented to the team that made the front office think, “Boy we better move now or we are going to be kicking ourselves.” The South Side GM also once again touched on a few significant trades that fell through at the eleventh hour, noting that the “frustration lingers a little longer than the satisfaction of getting a deal done.”
More from the American League Central…
- Rustin Dodd of the Kansas City Star writes that the Royals‘ competition at second base — which features Cheslor Cuthbert, Whit Merrifield, Christian Colon and Raul Mondesi — won’t necessarily produce one everyday option at the position. Manager Ned Yost acknowledged yesterday that the Opening Day second baseman “probably” would not play there on an everyday basis this coming year, unless one of the candidates outright runs away with the job this spring. Yost also noted that Cuthbert, who is out of minor league options, could be an especially important piece for Kansas City in April, as the team is planning to incorporate some extra days of rest into Mike Moustakas‘ schedule following last year’s season-ending ACL tear.
- The Twins have unearthed a surprising pitching prospect in righty Fernando Romero, LaVelle E. Neal III of the Star-Tribune writes. A 22-year-old power pitcher who is expected to open the season at Double-A, Romero has opened eyes with his big arm at camp. Injuries have limited his professional time, but Romero has already shown plenty to make the organization glad that it invested a relatively meager $260K to sign him — a deal that was struck within half a day after the club first saw him throw. The Dominican righty logged a sensational 1.89 ERA with a 90-to-15 K/BB ratio in 90 1/3 innings across two Class-A levels last season. And while he didn’t receive an abundance of fanfare on prospect rankings, ESPN’s Keith Law did tab Romero as the game’s No. 65 overall farmhand (subscription required/recommended).
- Speaking of prospects in the AL Central, MLB.com’s Jason Beck writes that the Tigers aren’t planning on rushing 22-year-old righty Joe Jimenez to the Majors. Manager Brad Ausmus called Jimenez, who posted a 1.51 ERA, 13.1 K/9 and 2.9 BB/9 across three minor league levels last season, “an extreme long shot” to make the Opening Day roster in Detroit this season. Jimenez’s fastball plays well enough to be a Major League offering right now, Ausmus elaborated, but the young righty is still “honing and working on” his secondary offerings. As we recently noted when breaking down the Tigers’ Spring Training battles, Jimenez is one of several candidates for what could be just one vacant bullpen spot in Detroit.
Nationals Have Interest In Angel Pagan
The Nationals are among the teams with interest in free-agent outfielder Angel Pagan, Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports reports in his latest notes column. However, the Nationals and other interested parties are hoping to land Pagan on a minor league pact, Rosenthal notes.
That Pagan would potentially have to settle for a minors deal is somewhat of a surprise. Though age isn’t on his side, as he’ll turn 36 this July, Pagan is coming off a quite-productive season at the plate and remains a very viable option in left field — if not in center. Last season, the switch-hitter batted .277/.331/.418 with a career-high 12 home runs in 543 trips to the plate. He also provided above-average value on the bases (15-for-19 in stolen bases and, per Fangraphs, +1.9 runs overall) and was one of the game’s most difficult batters to strike out. Only 16 players whiffed at a rate lower than Pagan’s 12.2 percent in 2016.
Certainly, Pagan comes with some durability concerns. He’s been on the disabled list in each of the past four seasons and missed just under a month with a hamstring injury in 2016. However, after being limited to just 167 games between the 2013-14 seasons, he’s averaged 131 games and 547 plate appearances across the past two seasons.
The Nationals have a mostly full outfield, with Jayson Werth slated to roam left field, newly acquired Adam Eaton in center field and 2015 NL MVP Bryce Harper in right field. Pagan could serve as a solid fourth outfielder that could spell Eaton from time to time and provide somewhat of a safety net for the oft-injured Jayson Werth. Chris Heisey is the team’s primary backup, and Adam Lind could see some occasional time in left field as well. Michael Taylor, too, is on hand as a potential option in the outfield, though the promise he once showed has yet to manifest in the Majors, and he’s coming off a dreadful 2016 season.
Per Rosenthal, Pagan also drew interest from the Blue Jays and the Royals earlier this winter, but those two teams have since inked Jose Bautista and Brandon Moss to respective contracts. Bautista’s deal with the Jays, though, hardly seems like it should entirely preclude Toronto from harboring continued interest in Pagan. The Blue Jays currently look poised to deploy a platoon of Ezequiel Carrera and Melvin Upton Jr. in left field, and it’s not difficult to argue that Pagan would be an upgrade over that pairing. Speculatively speaking, the Tigers and White Sox could each offer Pagan a fairly significant role in 2017, and a number of teams could consider Pagan an improvement over their current fourth outfielder.
Central Notes: Royals, Cardinals, Indians
Despite some early talks with Eric Hosmer, USA Today’s Bob Nightengale believes the Royals could wait until the season ends before “seriously” entering negotiations with free agents Hosmer, Lorenzo Cain, Mike Moustakas or Alcides Escobar. The Royals could be “curious to see what teams are willing to pay after a suppressed free-agent market last winter, as a similarly down market in the 2017-18 offseason might allow K.C. to re-evaluate their plans to bring any of these players back (though re-signing all four isn’t feasible). As Nightengale notes, the Royals let Alex Gordon test the market last winter before eventually re-signing the long-time outfielder.
More from the Central divisions:
- The Cardinals gave Cuban outfielder Jose Adolis Garcia an invitation to big league camp when they reeled him in with a $2.5MM bonus on Friday, but he’s unlikely to reach the majors before the summer, writes Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch. Garcia still has to return to Haiti, where he lived after defecting from Cuba, to acquire a work visa to play in games. That could be a two-week process, notes Goold. The 23-year-old is the latest of five international players the Cardinals have added for at least $1.5MM over the past eight months, and they’re now targeting another Cuban outfielder, the highly touted Luis Robert. General manager John Mozeliak acknowledges that the international spending limitations teams like the Cubs, Dodgers and Red Sox are facing has helped the Cardinals. “Our strategy all along was when we looked at who were the players in the international market at the time the big-spenders were out,” he informed Goold. “We saw this as a window where we could be more competitive relative to other years. Where Adolis fits in for us is a.) not taxed, and b.) I like the idea of being able to go to a high level quickly.”
- Although he ranked among Baseball America’s top 25 prospects as an outfielder in 2007, Jordan Schafer hasn’t acquitted himself well as a major leaguer, having hit .228/.308/.307 in 1,472 plate appearances. As a result, he transitioned to the mound in the Dodgers’ minor league system last year and is now trying to make the Cardinals as a hybrid player. Pitching is nothing new for Schafer, who thought someone would draft him as a hurler out of high school, details Jenifer Langosch of MLB.com. However, pitching “was really never spoke of again” after the Braves selected him in the third round of the 2005 draft, Schafer told Langosch. The 30-year-old left-hander now possesses a 91 to 94 mph fastball, which he believes he can improve on, and is also working on a slider, sinker and changeup to go with his heater and curveball. Schafer “looks good” as a pitcher so far, per Cardinals manager Mike Matheny. On Schafer’s versatility, Mozeliak observed: “It’s just such a creative tool to have in your toolbox, if it works. I think it’s really interesting. I hope the manager thinks it’s equally as fun. The biggest question is, ‘Will it be effective?'”
- The Indians announced that left-hander Tim Cooney has a strained flexor in his mid-forearm and will miss 10 to 12 weeks. Injuries have beset Cooney since an excellent debut in 2015, when he fired 31 1/3 innings of 3.16 ERA ball over six starts in St. Louis, as he missed all of last season after undergoing shoulder surgery. The Redbirds jettisoned Cooney in November, leading the Indians to claim him off waivers.
Eric Hosmer: “I Never Said Anything About A 10-Year Deal”
While the Royals and first baseman Eric Hosmer will discuss a contract extension until Opening Day, there’s only a “remote” chance a deal will come together by then, per Rustin Dodd of the Kansas City Star.
Kansas City has “been nothing but supportive,” Hosmer said Monday, but Dodd writes that the Scott Boras client regards the idea of reaching the open market next winter as intriguing. Hosmer could end up with a $100MM-plus deal between now and the 2018 campaign, Dodd notes, though the 27-year-old indicated that rumors he’s pushing for a decadelong accord are false.
“That’s where you guys get everything mixed up,” Hosmer said. “I never said anything about that. I never said anything about a 10-year deal.”
It’s debatable whether Hosmer would be worth a major investment. After all, the former star prospect hasn’t exhibited much consistency since breaking into the league in 2011, having mixed productive offensive seasons with underwhelming ones. Hosmer was at his best in 2015, when he posted a .297/.363/.459, 3.4-fWAR season in 667 plate appearances and helped the Royals to their first World Series title since 1985. But he took sizable steps backward last year, another 667-PA campaign, as he slashed a mediocre .266/.328/.433 and logged a negative fWAR (minus-0.2) despite swatting a career-high 25 home runs.
Across 3,722 major league plate trips, Hosmer has recorded an unspectacular .277/.335/.428 line to go with just 5.6 fWAR. As FanGraphs’ Jeff Sullivan pointed out earlier Tuesday, Hosmer has been as valuable per 600 PAs as Mitch Moreland since 2014. Moreover, projections for 2017 place Hosmer in the same company as Mike Napoli and Chris Carter. Moreland, Napoli and Carter, all first basemen, had to settle for one-year pacts ranging from $3.5MM to $8.5MM guaranteed in free agency this winter. Those are obviously far cries from substantial paydays in today’s league.
Hosmer, in fairness, is several years younger than each of those 30-somethings, and Sullivan noted there could be reason to expect better from him going forward. Whether it will hold up is debatable, but Hosmer has performed well in clutch situations. He also could be a better defender than the metrics give him credit for, and there might be untapped potential on the offensive end, Sullivan observes. Still, as Sullivan concluded, it doesn’t seem as if Hosmer has done enough up to now to justify an enormous contract.
For the Royals, locking Hosmer up by April would likely mean awarding him a deal more valuable than the franchise record-setting, $72MM pact they gave outfielder Alex Gordon as a free agent last year. That would be difficult for a medium-payroll club that also has decisions to make on soon-to-be free agents like outfielder Lorenzo Cain and third baseman Mike Moustakas by next winter.