Braves Notes: Hampton, Lowry, Andruw
Mike Hampton makes $15MM next year, and the Braves aren’t getting any relief from the Rockies or Marlins. However, it turns out the Braves actually spread around those payments so that they’d pay out about $8MM to Hampton in each year of the deal.
This is confirmed by Bill Shanks of Scout.com, for starters. Shanks notes that the Braves owe $8.25MM to Hampton next year because of amortization. I’ve heard that David O’Brien of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution said something similar in the comments of one of his blog posts, but it’s been buried somewhere. Bottom line, the Braves have $7MM more than we thought they did. A $95MM payroll would give Atlanta some wiggle room to add a starter.
It’s not a stretch to add Tom Glavine, with this new information. However, O’Brien thinks the Braves need more. While Dan Haren or Joe Blanton may be out of reach, Noah Lowry seems a more realistic target. The point is to find a decent young controllable arm.
O’Brien’s also got some early interested parties in Andruw Jones: the Dodgers, Rangers, Giants, White Sox, Nationals, Phillies, and Mets. Seems like the idea of moving Beltran to right field has been discussed within the Mets organization. The Dodgers, I imagine, would shift Juan Pierre to left field.
Needs and Luxuries: Los Angeles Dodgers
Next up in the series, the Dodgers. You can view all the Needs and Luxuries posts here.
C – Russell Martin
1B – James Loney
2B – Jeff Kent
SS – Rafael Furcal
3B – Andy LaRoche/Nomar Garciaparra
LF – Andre Ethier
CF – Juan Pierre
RF – Matt Kemp
SP – Brad Penny
SP – Derek Lowe
SP – Chad Billingsley
SP – Esteban Loaiza
SP – Jason Schmidt/Mark Hendrickson/Hong-Chih Kuo
Setup: Jonathan Broxton
Closer: Takashi Saito
Needs
The Dodgers need some power; their .406 team SLG ranked 13th in the NL. $108MM should buy better than that. Fortunately, power will be added without acquiring anyone.
Rafael Furcal should slug better than 2007’s .355 mark. He was at .445 in ’06 (.564 after the break). Furcal sprained his ankle in a March ’07 game, and it bothered him all year. He’s a tough guy, and played through it. He won’t have surgery, but an offseason of rest and an upcoming walk year should get him back to normal for ’08.
Luis Gonzalez slugged only .433, not enough for a corner outfielder. He won’t be back; his absence should allow Matt Kemp to reach 500 ABs (Kemp slugged .521 this year).
Nomar Garciaparra was pitiful at .371. He did slug .463 in the second half, so maybe he can return to respectability. Grady Little needs a quick trigger finger to go to LaRoche, whose 2008 SLG is projected at .483 by PECOTA.
So, I question the notion that the Dodgers need a power bat. However, it sure as hell wouldn’t hurt. How about having Ethier becoming one of the game’s most capable fourth outfielders, and importing a left fielder with power? Adam Dunn, Jason Bay, Barry Bonds, or Manny Ramirez could be blockbuster acquisitions. What about A-Rod? As with any team that can afford him, he’d be the best possible acquisition.
Kent’s on board for $9MM in ’08, but there has been speculation that he might not return. Not sure if that means retirement or a trade demand. But if second base opens up, Tony Abreu seems a capable replacement. For this reason, Kent could almost be considered a luxury (he’d be easier to trade if he was a better clubhouse guy).
Luxuries
I like the front end of the bullpen a lot, even more so with Jonathan Meloan close to contributing. No need to sign pricey relievers, though I wouldn’t trade from this strength.
The Dodgers had an above average rotation in 2007 despite injuries. Penny, Lowe, and Billingsley is an excellent playoff core. The Dodgers hope to recoup some of the Schmidt investment. Loaiza is making $7MM, so he gets first crack at the fifth starter job. Hopefully, as with Nomar, Little isn’t overly patient because of salary.
Wild card: the Dodgers have the two best left-handed starting prospects in the game in Scott Elbert and Clayton Kershaw. Elbert is more of a question mark given June arthroscopic shoulder surgery. Kershaw could definitely make an ’08 impact.
Randy Wolf wants to come back on the cheap, and Ned Colletti shouldn’t pass that up. More starting pitching depth is always a good thing. That said, I wouldn’t start dealing from this possible strength either.
The emergence of Chin-Lung Hu as one of the game’s top shortstop prospects may make Furcal expendable. Furcal is still plenty valuable despite an off-year. As I said earlier, a healthy Furcal in his walk year should really bounce back. It makes sense to trade Furcal in June if he re-establishes his value and Hu keeps hitting at Triple A. At that time, Colletti can assess his biggest need, perhaps getting that power bat if someone’s hurt or underproducing.
This is a strong team that should win a lot more than 82 games if the young players aren’t benched for inferior veterans.
Kemp/Kershaw for Santana
Well it’s what I call an "official possibility" now. In his ESPN.com chat yesterday afternoon, Jonah Keri of Page 2 confirmed the Johan Santana for Matt Kemp and Clayton Kershaw rumor that’s been generating a lot of buzz here at MLBTR. Let’s discuss, shall we?
Kemp and Kershaw both have 6 years before they reach free agency. Santana has 1. There’s the obvious red flag right there, Dodgers fans. But if Los Angeles GM Ned Colletti wants to win now, and he usually does, Santana could be the golden ticket. I shudder to think of how dominant Santana could be not only in the NL but also in Dodgers Stadium.
If you’re the Twins, and you know you can’t afford Santana, I think this is a no-brainer. Especially if (big if) you think you have Francisco Liriano returning to form.
The question remains: Is an ace like Johan what the Dodgers need to win? I’m not so sure. They’re rotation has been solidified by the emergence of Chad Billingsley. With a scrapheap lineup of Gonzo, Nomar, and Pierre, Matt Kemp could become their best hitter as early as… tonight.
Posted By: Nat Boyle
Dodgers Willing To Trade Matt Kemp?
Matt Kemp is an incredibly valuable player. Some would argue he’s worth more than $50MM over the next three seasons of his career, and he’ll cost a few million bucks. Then there’s Bill Plaschke, who feels Kemp’s power and speed "have been negated by silly at-bats and baserunning mistakes." By my calculation Kemp would have to make 742 baserunning mistakes per year to negate his .331/.364/.509 line.
Plaschke has insider sources indicating that the Dodgers think their best chance to win would be to trade a very good young player like Kemp for a veteran. U.S.S. Mariner recently noted just how dangerous the Dodgers’ recent brand of "pro-veteran entitlement" can be.
The question then becomes: which teams match up for Kemp? The Dodgers seem to want a veteran position player, and I imagine the guy would have to be under contract for at least two seasons and probably three. Third base and the outfield corners might be the openings.
Third basemen who could work include Eric Chavez, Troy Glaus, and Scott Rolen. I assume Garrett Atkins is too young. Miguel Tejada could work here also. In the outfield maybe Ken Griffey Jr. or David DeJesus would fit. Dodger fans – do you have confidence in Ned Colletti to spin Kemp into an equally valuable veteran?
Wolf Hopes To Return To Dodgers In ’08
According to Dylan Hernandez of the Los Angeles Times, Randy Wolf would like to return to the Dodgers for the 2008 season. Last winter, the Dodgers snagged Wolf on a below-market $8MM deal with a $9MM club option for ’08. Wolf expects them to decline the option. His season was abbreviated by shoulder surgery.
As Hernandez mentions, the Dodgers appear to be set with Brad Penny, Derek Lowe, Jason Schmidt, Chad Billingsley, and Esteban Loaiza for the ’08 rotation. But how many times have we seen a team go all year starting only its Opening Day five? Wolf at $4-5MM is an excellent signing. He says he feels like he didn’t even have surgery.
The Dodgers should sign Wolf, and then use he or Loaiza in relief until a spot opens up. Penny always wears down; maybe the Dodgers could use their sixth man to get him an extra day’s rest more often. Billingsley might pitch around 150 innings this year, meaning you wouldn’t want to take him past 180 in ’08. Loaiza and Schmidt are both obvious health risks. Hopefully Ned Colletti doesn’t pass on a bargain-priced Wolf to add depth for ’08.
Saito Hopes To Pitch In 2008
According to Dylan Hernandez of the L.A. Times, Takashi Saito wants to pitch a third season for the Dodgers in 2008. With a 1.73 ERA in 135 career innings, Saito’s finishing up perhaps the best-ever two-season run by a Japanese pitcher. Some folks are comparing him to Dennis Eckersley, though Saito doesn’t know who that is (hat tip to East Windup Chronicle).
Hernandez questions how Saito would react if another team were to offer him more money. However, I don’t think that’s an issue here. As he was last year, Saito is tied to the Dodgers by his service time. He’s not a free agent this winter.
The massive success of Saito, Hideki Ojakima, and others can only lead to an increase in demand for Japanese relievers – especially given the low salaries. Take free agent Koji Uehara. Mike Plugh told me there’s no reason for MLB teams to consider him as a reliever even though he’s closed for all of 2007. However, a recent Yahoo Japan article quotes an NL scout who thinks he would have more success in the pen.
What’s In Store For Oakland?
Susan Slusser’s recent article for the San Francisco Chronicle had some interesting rumor tidbits.
- The Dodgers see the Esteban Loaiza handover as something of a small gift from the A’s. The team’s talked about sending someone to Oakland – Brett Tomko was mentioned – but ultimately Oakland moved Loaiza only for salary relief. However, the goodwill between Ned Colletti and Billy Beane from the deal could result in positive offseason discussions about Joe Blanton. The Dodgers could sweeten a Blanton package beyond what’s necessary, in rememberance of the Loaiza gift.
- The Tigers haven’t asked about Mike Piazza, and the Twins had only mild interest back in July. But that might be one last salary the A’s try to unload before tonight’s trade deadline.
- Interesting thought from Buster Olney the other day – is it time to shop Eric Chavez? His plus defense might play well in L.A., New York, or Boston. Olney speculates that the A’s might ask the Dodgers for Clayton Kershaw…can’t see that one happening. Chavvy makes $11MM in ’08, $11MM in ’09, $12MM in ’10, and a $3MM buyout in ’11. His limited no-trade clause allows him to block trades to the Blue Jays, Nationals, Devil Rays, Mets, Twins, Brewers, Marlins, and Indians.
- Slusser writes in another article that the A’s will slice their ’08 payroll by roughly $15MM.
Dodgers Receive Loaiza On Waiver Claim
Given the $8MM+ owed to 35 year-old starter Esteban Loaiza, Billy Beane chose to hand him over to the Dodgers solely for salary relief. The Dodgers basically inherit Loaiza on a one-year, $7MM deal for 2008, which is less than he’d cost on the open market. If healthy he’s a more than credible fourth starter. He had great success for the Nationals in the NL back in ’05.
Loaiza slots into the fourth slot for the rest of the season, behind Chad Billingsley but ahead of David Wells. Ned Colletti did a fine job adding two respectable starters for nothing. One consequence of the acquisition is that the Dodgers are likely to turn Randy Wolf loose rather than exercise his $9MM option, according to Ken Rosenthal.
You can read a history of Loaiza’s ailments and misdeeds since the A’s signed him here.
Dodgers Interested In Loaiza
According to John Shea of the San Francisco Chronicle, the Dodgers have "genuine interest" in Oakland starter Esteban Loaiza. The 35 year-old righty has been excellent in two starts against the Blue Jays since coming off the DL.
Loaiza was coming off a fine 34-start 2005 season for the Nationals when the A’s signed him to a three year, $21MM pact. I wasn’t high on the deal at the time, though it’s more palatable given some of the starting pitching deals that followed.
Loaiza pitched for Mexico in the WBC in March of ’06. He reached April with a marked decline in velocity, and the A’s blamed his early struggles on the tournament. Spasms in his non-throwing shoulder surfaced later that month. On the first of May he hit the DL with a strained trapezius muscle.
He returned in June to mediocre results, but his velocity had returned. He snagged a DUI later that month, driving 120 mph in his Ferrari while drunk. The incident prompted the A’s to ban alcohol in both the home and visitor clubhouses. Loaiza was healthy but awful in July of ’06. In August he was surprisingly lights out in winning four starts with a 1.48 ERA. Loaiza even touched 95 on the gun in a start that month. He ended up making a couple of playoff starts – one decent, one lousy.
This spring, tightness in Loaiza’s pitching shoulder and a bulging disc in his neck surfaced. His rehab was delayed due to a torn meniscus in his knee, which he had surgery for in June. He finally returned this month, and is working in the 86-88 mph range. With $8MM due next year, it’s possible Loaiza cleared waivers. However, we only have speculation on that currently. A switch back to the NL would not be a bad move at this stage in his career, and the Dodgers are still short on starting pitching even with David Wells in tow.
Dodgers To Sign David Wells
UPDATE: Dan Graziano’s source says Wells is close to signing with the Dodgers.
Back on Monday, Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe broke down the David Wells situation. At the time of his writing Wells seemed likely to retire. The sticking point is $1.13MM in incentives Boomer could’ve earned with San Diego – he wants his new team to pay up. Four clubs inquired, with the Rockies and Dodgers confirmed. When Ken Rosenthal wrote on the topic that same day, he said the Rockies would pass. The Mark Redman signing probably puts the nail in that coffin.
Breaking down the candidates:
- According to the L.A. Times today, the Dodgers still appear interested. Brett Tomko‘s stinker last night didn’t hurt.
- The Mets could be one of the mystery teams.
- The Diamondbacks and Mariners appear to be out.
- I’ve speculated in the past that the Braves might consider signing Wells.
- The Phillies have a heightened need with Cole Hamels‘ injury.
- The Cardinals appear set with Joel Pineiro as their fifth starter for now.