- Home run-hitting machine Giancarlo Stanton is among the game’s absolute best players at the moment, but the Marlins right fielder’s contract and injury history combine to make him a very tough sell around the majors, Joel Sherman of the New York Post writes. Stanton, who’s due $295MM from 2018-28 and has both full no-trade rights and a 2020 opt-out clause, went through revocable trade waivers unclaimed earlier this month. The executives Sherman spoke with aren’t surprised. “This is the problem if you make emotional decisions in the moment. Stanton is playing great now, but three months ago you would have thought he was at least a $100 million liability and three months from now you might feel the same,” one exec said of Stanton, who will create a dilemma for the Marlins’ new ownership group when it takes the reins. On one hand, Stanton’s contract is the biggest contributor to the franchise’s financial woes – the Marlins will lose $70MM-plus this year, per Sherman – so trading him would benefit Derek Jeter & Co. from a payroll standpoint. On the other, Stanton’s contract means Miami likely wouldn’t get the type of return for him that you’d expect for someone of his immense ability and star power. That means trading the 27-year-old would probably send the wrong message to a fan base that outgoing owner Jeffrey Loria has alienated over the years.
- Yankees vice president of player development Gary Denbo is an early front-runner to become the Marlins’ general manager once the Jeter group assumes control of the franchise, according to Mark Feinsand of MLB.com (Twitter links). Denbo has worked in various capacities with the Yankees since the 1990s, the decade in which Jeter’s professional career began, and was a mentor to the the now-retired shortstop during his Hall of Fame-caliber playing days. The two remain “close,” Feinsand notes.
Marlins Rumors
Blue Jays Acquire Tom Koehler
The Blue Jays have acquired right-hander Tom Koehler and cash considerations from the Marlins for minor league righty Osman Gutierrez, according to announcements from both teams. Gutierrez will report to Single-A Greensboro with his new organization.
[RELATED: Updated Blue Jays Depth Chart]
Koehler, who’s on a $5.75MM salary and has another year of arbitration eligibility remaining, got off to a poor start this season and began surfacing in trade rumors in May. While Koehler was a competent back-end starter in Miami from 2013-16, a stretch in which he combined for a 4.14 ERA (4.30 FIP) with 6.82 K/9, 3.67 BB/9 and a 44.6 percent ground-ball rate over 698 1/3 innings, the 31-year-old has endured a miserable 2017. Across 12 starts and 55 2/3 frames, Koehler has logged a 7.92 ERA (6.89 FIP), 7.11 K/9, 4.69 BB/9 and a 38.1 percent grounder mark. However, Koehler has dominated in 37 2/3 Triple-A innings this year (1.67 ERA, 13.14 K/9, 3.11 BB/9), which could provide hope for an eventual big league turnaround.
Whether Koehler will immediately head to Toronto or Triple-A Buffalo is unclear. Regardless, he’ll provide some depth to a 59-64 Jays club that’s 3.5 games out of a wild-card spot and currently has a couple question marks in its rotation behind the proven trio of Marco Estrada, Marcus Stroman and J.A. Happ. One of those question marks, Chris Rowley, has gotten good results over a pair of starts, while the long-struggling Nick Tepesch has turned in subpar work over three appearances from the rotation since Toronto acquired him from the Twins in late July.
Gutierrez, 22, was not among the Blue Jays’ top 30 prospects at MLB.com before the trade, though the 2011 international signing from Nicaragua was 26th on Baseball America’s list for the team after last season. BA noted at the time (subscription required and recommended) that Gutierrez features a 94-96 mph fastball that can top out at 97 mph, a “generally above-average” slider and a somewhat promising changeup. Gutierrez hasn’t fared well at the Single-A level this year, though, with a 7.88 ERA, 8.25 K/9 against 6.25 BB/9 and a 38.6 grounder rate through 72 innings.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
MLBTR Mailbag: Lowrie, Bruce, Giants, Controllable Starters
Thanks as always for your questions! If yours wasn’t selected this week, you can always pose it in one of our weekly chats: Steve Adams at 2pm CST on Tuesdays, Jason Martinez at 6:30pm CST on Wednesdays, and yours truly at 2pm CST on Thursdays.
Here are this week’s questions and answers:
Why is it so hard for the A’s to move Jed Lowrie? — Rene H.
Well, there has been a bit of a game of musical chairs in the second/third base market. The Red Sox went with Eduardo Nunez. The Nationals grabbed Howie Kendrick, who can also play outfield. The Brewers ended up with Neil Walker in August. Those deals filled some of the main needs out there, though there are at least a few teams that could still make a move. The Angels stand out; the Indians have looked in this area; and the Blue Jays could be a dark horse if they make a run.
But let’s suppose a few organizations are indeed still poking around on Lowrie. Those same teams will also have other options to consider. Ian Kinsler is now off the market after his waiver claim was revoked by the Tigers. But Brandon Phillips and Zack Cozart are both pending free agents who could move. Yangervis Solarte may not clear waivers, but could be claimed and pursued. And Asdrubal Cabrera also represents a possibility.
Cabrera, like Lowrie, comes with a club option for 2018. In Lowrie’s case, it’s just a $6MM cost to keep him (against a $1MM buyout). He has surely played well enough to make that a decent asset to move over the winter. And perhaps Oakland isn’t all that anxious to press Franklin Barreto into everyday duty in the majors just yet. After all, he’s only 21, didn’t hit much in his brief debut, and has encountered a rising strikeout rate at Triple-A. Lowrie could help stabilize the infield the rest of the way or even in 2018, or he could still be flipped if a decent offer comes along.
How do you guys see the [free-agent] market for Jay Bruce developing? I have a hard time believing that a 30/31-year-old who has six seasons where he OPSed over .800 would have trouble locking down a fourth year at a $13MM AAV. — Alex W.
As Alex helpfully pointed out in his email, there are indeed quite a few corner outfielders that have landed free-agent contracts in that range. Recent deals that could work as comparables run from Nick Markakis (4/$44MM) and Josh Reddick (4/$52MM) up to Nick Swisher (4/$56MM) and Curtis Granderson (4/$60MM). Bruce is a plausible candidate to land in that general realm.
I do think Bruce is flying under the radar a bit, given the obvious appeal of his quality offensive output this year — .267/.334/.541 with 32 homers. It doesn’t hurt that he has turned things on thus far since going to the Indians, has finally reversed the abysmal defensive metrics, and is regarded as a top-shelf professional. The two lost seasons of 2014 and 2015 are hard to ignore entirely, and he has never hit lefties nearly so much as righties, but he has returned to his prior trajectory since and has been average at the plate when facing southpaws this season. Plus, there won’t be any draft compensation to contend with.
But where exactly he falls, and whether he gets a fourth year or instead takes a higher AAV over three, will depend upon market forces. J.D. Martinez and Justin Upton (if he opts out) would be the two top corner outfielders, but both are righty bats that would require very significant contracts. Granderson and Melky Cabrera will present alternatives for teams seeking lefty pop, but neither has quite Bruce’s present power and both are much older. All things considered, Bruce should be fairly well positioned.
I’m wondering if the Giants’ plan to re-tool, rather than rebuild, has a reasonable chance of success. Does SF have only two or three spots, like one outfielder and two pitchers, that will make the difference in being competitive? Or will the re-tooling need to involve more spots on the roster, like two outfielders, maybe an infielder (third base), and three or four pitchers? And are there players available in free-agency for them to do that? — Tim D.
Let’s start with the presumption that Johnny Cueto opts into the remainder of his deal. That would fill one of the rotation slots but also keeps a lot of cash on the books — over $150MM total already for 2018, with more than $100MM promised in each of the next two seasons. And the club will also have to consider what it’ll cost to keep Madison Bumgarner around past 2019.
Looking over the roster — see the current depth chart here — the Giants will face questions in a variety of areas. Third base is unresolved, the team needs at least one starting outfielder (a center-field-capable player would perhaps be preferred, bumping Denard Span to left), and several bench/platoon roles are open to question. The team will likely at least look into adding a starter, though it could choose instead to go with Matt Moore along with Ty Blach or another less-established pitcher to line up behind Cueto, Bumgarner, and Jeff Samardzija. Bullpens can always be improved, though the Giants can hope for a bounceback from Mark Melancon and continued performance from reclamation hit Sam Dyson in the late innings.
On the whole, then, perhaps a more dramatic roster overhaul isn’t really needed. Assuming the club is willing to spend up to, but not past, the $180MM-ish payroll it carried entering the current season, that leaves some room to add. But the long-term commitments and 2017 downturns certainly also speak in favor of exercising some caution. I’d expect a focus on striking shorter-term deals with veterans.
Possibilities at third could include Pablo Sandoval, Todd Frazier, and Yunel Escobar, or the Giants could go bigger and chase the still-youthful Mike Moustakas. In the outfield, Lorenzo Cain would be the top center-field target, though he’ll be entering his age-32 season and won’t be cheap. There are some interesting alternatives, including Carlos Gomez, Jon Jay, and Jarrod Dyson. It’s also possible the Giants could chase Bruce or another corner piece while adding a player like Austin Jackson to platoon with Span in center. And as ever, there are lots of different pitchers available at different price points should they look to add there.
Ultimately, there ought to be decent value available in the price range the Giants will be shopping. Whether that’ll work out or not … well, that’s dependent upon quite a few other factors and is tough to predict at this point.
Which young, controllable starters (like Chris Archer, for example) will potentially be available via trade this upcoming offseason? –Matt H.
Archer is certainly a good example of a guy who could be available and who’ll be asked about quite a lot. Depending upon how things end up for the Rays this year — currently, it’s not trending in the right direction — they may be more or less inclined to undertake a more dramatic move such as dealing the staff ace.
Generally, though, I’d expect the pickings to be slim. Several teams that sit in the bottom of the standings and have young arms don’t seem likely to move them. For instance, I don’t really expect the Mets (Jacob deGrom, Noah Syndergaard, Steven Matz, etc.), Blue Jays (Marcus Stroman, Aaron Sanchez), or Phillies (Aaron Nola, Jerad Eickhoff, Vince Velasquez) to be looking to deal young starters.
There are a few other names to watch, though. Michael Fulmer of the Tigers would figure to draw some of the most fervent interest, and Detroit has to be thinking creatively entering an offseason full of questions. The Pirates could decide that now’s the time to move Gerrit Cole, though he’ll only have two years of control remaining so may not really meet the parameters. Julio Teheran of the Braves will surely again be a topic of speculation, at least, and the Marlins will have to consider cashing in Dan Straily.
New Marlins Ownership Group Still Seeking Equity, Will Replace Samson
One week back, we learned that Marlins owner Jeffrey Loria had finally struck a deal to sell the organization to an investment group led by legendary shortstop Derek Jeter and Bruce Sherman. But that was only the beginning of the process to finalize the deal.
Notably, there’s still a possibility of changes to the financial structure of the arrangement. As Barry Jackson of the Miami Herald first reported, the search for cash continues for the expectant new owners. In essence, it seems that the Jeter-Sherman group has something approaching the bare minimum of equity investment needed and would still like to draw additional investors. Those interested in learning additional details about the situation can read more from Jon Heyman of Fan Rag.
Notably, though, it seems there’s little reason to think the bid is in doubt.As Clark Spencer of the Miami Herald writes, commissioner Rob Manfred acknowledges that changes to the deal structure could yet be made, while also saying the current proposal would pass muster under league rules.
Assuming that’s all sorted out, it seems the incoming owners have already made their first significant personnel decision. Current team president David Samson will not be retained in that role, Dan Le Batard of ESPN Radio and the Miami Herald tweets. Le Batard also notes that the Marlins will have a new COO under the incoming ownership group.
There had been indications Samson would be retained in some capacity, and Heyman notes he is still owed a $5MM salary for another year. As Spencer and Jackson further explain, Samson — who is Loria’s son-in-law — has become the public face of the team during an “occasionally polarizing” term in the position. However, MLB.com’s Joe Frisaro writes that it does not appear that Samson will return to the Marlins organization in any capacity next year.
No Serious Stanton Talks For Marlins Yet
The Marlins are “willing to engage” other clubs in trade talks regarding Giancarlo Stanton, tweets MLB.com’s Jon Morosi. That much has already been clear — Yahoo’s Jeff Passan indicated yesterday that four clubs had already had some level of dialogue with the Marlins regarding Stanton, who has cleared revocable waivers — but Morosi adds that there have yet to be any serious negotiations regarding the current MLB home run leader. Stanton is the hottest hitter on the planet right now, but he’s also owed a staggering $298.64MM through the end of the 2027 campaign. And while he can technically opt out after the 2020 season, doing so would mean forfeiting the remaining seven years and $218MM on his deal as he heads into his age-31 campaign. Stanton also has a full no-trade clause, which only adds a further layer of complexity.
Giancarlo Stanton Clears Revocable Waivers
Marlins slugger Giancarlo Stanton has cleared revocable waivers, according to Jeff Passan of Yahoo Sports. While it is far from clear that Stanton is going to end up being traded this month, that’s now possible. He joins a list of other veterans that are known to have made it through waivers without being claimed.
Passan also suggests there could at least be plausible scenarios where a deal comes together. He cites “at least four” teams that have engaged in some level of dialogue with Miami regarding Stanton, noting that there was enough traction with one organization that some returning prospects were discussed.
Stanton, 27, has been on an unholy tear at the plate. After swatting a dozen home runs in 25 games in July, he has launched ten more through just 13 contests in August. That run has helped restore Stanton’s standing as one of the game’s premier sluggers after a down 2016 season. Overall, he owns a .268/.359/.552 batting line with 251 home runs through nearly 4,000 trips to the plate in his eight-year career.
Of course, the question on the trade front has never really been about just how productive the hulking slugger can be. He cleared waivers, rather, due to a somewhat checkered injury history and the massive extension he signed in November of 2014. Stanton’s annual salary ramps up significantly beginning next year; all said, he’s promised $295MM through 2027 (including a buyout on an option for one more year).
That huge commitment isn’t the only complicating factor. Stanton possesses a full no-trade clause, though Passan suggests that won’t be a significant barrier. Of greater significance, perhaps, the Marlins are in the middle of a franchise sale and the massive slugger is the club’s marquee attraction with television rights fees negotiations looming.
Still, Passan argues, the Fish would be best served marketing Stanton now, while his value is ascendant. That’s certainly not a universal opinion — ESPN.com’s Buster Olney argued the opposite recently — but does seem a reasonable approach for an organization with needs that likely outstrip the available resources in the near-term.
2017 Opt-Out Clause Update
The last look we took at the handful of players with opt-out clauses following the 2017 season was more than a month ago, and a few of their situations may have changed since that early July check-in. Here’s an update on this group of potential free agents…
[Related: MLBTR Free Agent Power Rankings: August Edition]
Trending Up
- Justin Upton, Tigers ($88.5MM from 2018-21): There have been plenty of suggestions that there’s no way Upton will walk away from that contract, but we’re not really sold on that notion. Upton was terrible in his first three months with the Tigers but is hitting .274/.352/.542 (137 wRC+) with 45 homers dating back to July 1, 2016. Over the past calendar year, he’s hitting .281/.366/.571 (148 wRC+) with 40 homers in 631 PAs. He’s been seven to nine runs above average in left field, per UZR and DRS, as well. Upton will play next year at the age of 30 and needs only to feel he can top Hanley Ramirez’s guarantee to opt out. Beyond that, he may simply like the idea of moving to a team that isn’t openly trying to pare back its payroll and retool for the future.
- Masahiro Tanaka, Yankees ($67MM from 2018-20): Tanaka’s home-run woes are an unequivocally troubling issue, but his numbers since the summer began are encouraging. Since May 26, Tanaka has a 3.99 ERA with 10.7 K/9, 1.9 BB/9 and a 47.6 percent ground-ball rate — good for a 3.12 xFIP and a 3.17 SIERA. The numbers are even better if you look at his past nine starts (3.00 ERA, 65 K, 12 BB, 57 innings). The health concerns are well known. Tanaka had a partial UCL tear in his rookie season but was able to avoid Tommy John, and he’s currently on the DL with what is reportedly some minor shoulder fatigue. The righty has averaged 2.2 HR/9 this year, but he’s also going to be just 29 years old next year. An opt-out looked highly unlikely two months ago but now looks entirely plausible, as long as this latest DL trip proves minor.
- Welington Castillo, Orioles ($7MM player option): Since last check, Castillo has absolutely raked. He’s batted .308/.345/.500 with four homers and three doubles in his past 84 PAs, and his overall batting line it up to .283/.319/.457 (103 wRC+). Castillo’s framing marks have improved from some of the worst in the league to roughly average (per Baseball Prospectus), and he’s halted an incredible 46 percent of stolen-base attempts against him in 2017. He should be able to top a one-year, $7MM deal with ease this winter.
Trending Down
- Greg Holland, Rockies ($15MM player option): Since our last check, Holland has reminded everyone that he is indeed mortal. In his past 11 2/3 frames, he’s coughed up eight runs on a dozen hits and six walks with 14 strikeouts. Six of those runs have come in his past two outings, but as long as that proves to be a blip on the radar, Holland still seems a safe bet to opt out. If he significantly fades in his first year back from Tommy John or lands on the disabled list, though, there’s at least a chance that he takes the option. Assuming he remains healthy, though, Holland will likely look to top Mark Melancon’s four-year, $62MM deal this winter.
- Johnny Cueto, Giants ($84MM from 2018-21): It’s been almost a month since Cueto last set foot on a Major League mound, as he’s been sidelined with a forearm issue that has significantly clouded his chances of opting out. Reports earlier in the summer suggested that a slow start wasn’t going to deter Cueto from opting out, but a month-long injury scare and an ERA in the upper-4.00s certainly might. Cueto, 32 in February, has a 4.59 ERA with 8.0 K/9, 3.2 BB/9 and the second worst ground-ball rate of his career (39.2 percent). FIP, xFIP and SIERA all peg him at 4.41 or worse.
Unchanged Since Last Check
- Matt Wieters, Nationals ($10.5MM player option): Wieters wasn’t hitting in early July, and he’s hitting even less now. His defensive reputation limited him to a two-year, $21MM deal with a player option after year one on the 2016-17 open market, and that was coming off a much better offensive season. Wieters seems extremely likely to take the $10.5MM in 2018.
- Ian Kennedy, Royals ($49MM from 2018-20): Kennedy’s results have improved slightly since the last opt-out update, but it’s hardly enough to make it likely that he’ll opt out of that significant guarantee. Through 120 innings in 2017, Kennedy has averaged 1.65 HR/9, tying a career-worst mark, while both his strikeout and walk rates have gone the wrong direction. He’s also missed a couple of weeks with a hamstring injury, and he’ll turn 33 this December.
- Wei-Yin Chen, Marlins ($52MM from 2018-20): No change here. Chen has scarcely been able to pitch in 2017 due to a reported partial tear of his ulnar collateral ligament. He’s reportedly still aiming for a late comeback, but that won’t be enough to give him the earning power to top his remaining guarantee.
Marlins Notes: Jeter, Stanton
While the much-maligned Jeffrey Loria will soon hand off Marlins ownership to a group including Derek Jeter, the team’s spending habits aren’t going to change – at least not in the short term – says Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports. The Marlins are in the red, losing tens of millions per year, and are in need of a new local television deal. Additionally, Rosenthal points out that Miami already has $95MM set aside for just eight players next season, and in his estimation, it would take roughly a $150MM payroll for the club to contend in 2018. Given the Marlins’ economic difficulties, they’re simply not in position to spend anywhere near that amount.
Despite the franchise’s financial troubles, one thing Jeter & Co. can’t do is unload world-class slugger Giancarlo Stanton’s mammoth contract, opines Buster Olney of ESPN. Doing so would serve as an immediate public relations hit to the new ownership team because it would give off a “same old Marlins” vibe, Olney reasons. Stanton, who hit his major league-leading 42nd home run Sunday, has $295MM remaining on his deal. That, plus Stanton’s full no-trade clause, could prove to be roadblocks even if the Jeter-led faction tries to jettison the soon-to-be 28-year-old.
Jeffrey Loria Agrees To Sell Marlins To Derek Jeter’s Group
SATURDAY 4:30pm: Speaking to the media Saturday afternoon, Samson confirmed that Jeter will run the Marlins’ baseball and business operations, writes Jackson. Samson’s own role going forward is unclear. “It has never been about me,” he says.
3:30pm: Mas will not be part of the group, according to Samson (via a tweet from the Miami Herald’s Barry Jackson).
7:58am: Jorge Mas’ group did not win the bidding for the Marlins, but he could still be involved in the new Jeter-led ownership group as controlling owner, Scott Soshnick tweets. Via Heyman (on Twitter), Mas could invest up to $300MM.
FRIDAY 9:39pm: There’s a signed contract on its way to the commissioner’s office, per Heyman (via Twitter).
4:40pm: Current president David Samson and president of baseball ops Michael Hill are expected to retain roles with the organization once the deal goes through, Jon Heyman of Fan Rag reports. Whether that’s intended mostly to be transitional or instead to be permanent isn’t immediately clear. Heyman also suggests it’s not yet known whether Samson’s job duties would change under the new ownership group. The executive is believed to have just more than a year left on his current deal.
3:11pm: Evidently bringing an end to a long-running process, Marlins owner Jeffrey Loria has agreed to sell the franchise for $1.2 billion to a group featuring retired shortstop Derek Jeter, reports Clark Spencer of the Miami Herald.
While it seemed months back that the Jeter-led outfit would land the club, that proved premature. Since, two other primary bidding groups have vied to take over from Loria — one led by Wayne Rothbaum, which dropped out recently, and another associated with Jorge Mas — with numerous twists and turns throughout.
Now, it seems, there’s finally a clear course — though it’s worth emphasizing that nothing has been finalized. Major League Baseball is expected to receive the written agreement Friday, per Spencer, but an approval vote might not take place for several weeks — with a formal closing not likely to occur until early October.
Jeter has long been the most visible member of his bidding group, and he’ll reportedly take primary responsibility for setting the course of both the baseball and business operations of the organization. But he’s not the primary money man and won’t be the formal control person vis-a-vis- the league.
Rather, Bruce Sherman — the former chairman of Private Capital Management — will reportedly function as the control person while also footing the bulk of the bill to acquire the franchise. He’s said to be a Marlins fan who enjoys a “great relationship” with Jeter; no doubt, the two will work closely. Something like sixteen other investors are also part of the group, according to Spencer, including NBA legend Michael Jordan.
Just what plans the Jeter/Sherman ownership outfit has in mind isn’t yet clear. But the current formula seems in need of some tweaking. The Marlins have failed to draw fans to the yard, despite a still-shiny (and heavily subsidized) ballpark. There’s a need to work out a new TV deal in the near future, with the team’s leverage perhaps dependent upon its ability to improve its seemingly tepid local support. That, in turn, may depend in large part upon an improvement in the on-field results; the club last posted a .500 record when it was still known as the Florida Marlins.
Driving improvement won’t be easy, especially with a generally low-regarded farm system, but there are some pieces to work with. Star Giancarlo Stanton has a huge contract, but has been outstanding this year, while younger players such as Marcell Ozuna, Christian Yelich, J.T. Realmuto, Dan Straily, and Justin Bour could function as building blocks or excellent trade chips. The club’s baseball ops group — the complexion of which isn’t yet clear — will need to overcome some other contracts that range from questionable (Dee Gordon, Brad Ziegler, Junichi Tazawa) to undeniably problematic (Wei-Yin Chen, Martin Prado, Edinson Volquez).
The Marlins’ payroll ballooned to over $115MM to open the 2017 season, by far an organizational high-point, and the results have been underwhelming. Unless the new ownership group is willing to pour some cash into improving around the core of young talent, the Fish may need to embark upon a rebuilding course this winter. Either way, it’ll be a fascinating offseason to watch.
Hyde: Loria's Departure The Key To Marlins' Ownership Change
What kind of Marlins owner Derek Jeter will make is far less important than the fact that Jeffrey Loria is leaving, Dave Hyde of the Sun Sentinel writes. Loria frequently upstaged the Marlins’ on-field play with off-field drama, including ballpark financing issues, a revolving door to the manager’s office, and constant changes of direction. Meanwhile, the team Jeter and company will take over is no prize — the team isn’t currently contending, there’s already lots of money tied up in player salaries for next season, and the franchise’s minor-league system is poor. Here’s more from the National League.
