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Heyman’s Latest: Diamondbacks, Martinez, Mariners, Rays, Odor, Jays

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Jon Heyman kicks off his latest Inside Baseball column for FanRag sports by making a few predictions on some popular trade candidates. While he forecasts Sonny Gray to be the best pitcher that is seriously discussed in trades, he ultimately believes Gray will stay put, and teammate Rich Hill will be the top arm moved at this year’s non-waiver deadline. On the bullpen side of the equation, Aroldis Chapman has a “pretty good” chance to be moved, whereas teammate Andrew Miller was given a “less than one percent chance” to be traded by one Yankees-connected official, per Heyman.

A few of the more notable items from his lengthy column…

  • Brad Ziegler, Daniel Hudson and Tyler Clippard are generating the most trade interest among D-backs players, per Heyman. Arizona considers Paul Goldschmidt, Jake Lamb and perhaps Brandon Drury to be among its untouchables in trade takes even if the club does elect to sell off some parts.
  • The Marlins continue to hunt for starting pitching and have interest in Rays starters Jake Odorizzi and Matt Moore but also recognize that they don’t have much in the way of prospect capital to offer up for controllable arms of that nature. Miami could turn to Jarred Cosart if a rotation alternative is needed, though Cosart is sporting a pretty pedestrian 3.92 ERA with 6.0 K/9 and 4.6 BB/9 in eight starts (39 innings) since being demoted to the minors earlier this year.
  • The Cardinals are considering a long-term deal for rising young right-hander Carlos Martinez, per Heyman, though there’s no indication of any serious talks between the two sides from his report. Martinez is a logical extension candidate as a 24-year-old former top prospect that has made good on that hype with a 2.97 ERA across his past 282 innings. However, he’s also on track to hit arbitration for the first time this offseason, which does eliminate some of the urgency to take a club-friendly deal from Martinez’s camp. That, of course, doesn’t mean that an agreement can’t be reached, but Martinez is already in line for a sizable payday this winter, and buying out free-agent seasons would be expensive considering the platform he’s in the midst of building.
  • The Mariners could look to upgrade at closer in the coming weeks. Steve Cishek has been a nice pickup for the team (though he did blow a save tonight), but Joel Peralta didn’t pan out in Seattle and Joaquin Benoit has struggled. Heyman notes that GM Jerry Dipoto is a big fan of Angels setup man Joe Smith, which isn’t a big surprise considering Dipoto signed him to a three-year deal when he was the Halos’ GM. Smith, though, doesn’t really fit the description of the closer upgrade Heyman initially mentioned. That’s not meant to downplay Smith’s ability to help the Mariners, but I’d imagine a more powerful arm would be the type of target the club would pursue if looking to upgrade over Cishek.
  • The Rays are getting quite a bit of interest in Moore, Odorizzi and Chris Archer, but there’s no sense that any of the three are available yet. Other teams do expect Tampa Bay to move at least one pitcher, though Heyman notes that it’s highly unlikely that Archer would be moved.
  • The Rangers have exchanged numbers with Rougned Odor’s camp in extension talks, but the two sides aren’t believed to be close to a deal yet. Odor won’t be arbitration eligible until after the 2017 campaign, so he’s a ways off from his first significant salary. We’ve previously seen several second basemen in his service bracket — between two and three years of service once the season is up — sign extensions, so there are a fair number of comparables from which to draw. Brian Dozier signed away his arbitration year for a total of $20MM, while Matt Carpenter and Jason Kipnis each signed away their arb years and a pair of free-agent seasons for about $52MM in total, as can be seen in MLBTR’s Extension Tracker.
  • The Blue Jays may try to add some left-handed pop and could be a landing spot for Jay Bruce, per Heyman. Toronto was known to be interested in Bruce back in Spring Training and even had a reported three-team trade with the Reds and Angels fall through after some medical reports on minor leaguers that were set to change hands derailed the deal. That, of course, looks quite fortuitous for the Blue Jays right now, as Michael Saunders would’ve gone to the Angels in that deal. The bullpen is also a likely area of focus for the Jays, he notes, which makes more sense than a run at Bruce, who doesn’t strike me as a great fit for their roster.

Marlins Sent Scout To Watch Ervin Santana, Sonny Gray

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  • Santana wasn’t the only starter of note in that contest, as Athletics righty Sonny Gray was also on the bump. Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle reports that the match-up drew attention from quite a few scouts, with representatives from the Blue Jays, Royals, Orioles, Marlins and Cardinals among those in attendance to see the two potential trade candidates throw. Oakland skipper Bob Melvin said that he felt Gray may be turning a corner after the showing, in which he battled through six innings with only one earned run on the board. Gray did allow four walks, but worked through some tough spots and, in Melvin’s words, “found a little of his mojo.” With Gray showing some life and the A’s continuing to muddle through the season, Slusser says that some rival executives feel there’s daylight for a deal on Oakland’s staff ace. There’s little question that the Twins would at least be open to moving Santana, and he’d represent a less costly addition for those organizations in need of rotation help (on the prospect side of the equation, at least; his contractual obligations would need to be worked out).

Marlins To Sign Cory Luebke

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The Marlins and left-hander Cory Luebke are in agreement on a minor league contract, reports SB Nation’s Chris Cotillo (on Twitter). Luebke, a client of Meister Sports Management, was designated for assignment by the Pirates and subsequently released earlier this year.

There were both positives and negatives to be drawn from Luebke’s stint in Pittsburgh. On the one hand, the 31-year-old was able to return to a big league hill for the first time since 2012 after battling through a host of arm injuries, including a pair of UCL tears. On the other, he wasn’t exactly successful in his reincarnation as a reliever.

Over 8 2/3 frames, Luebke allowed 11 earned runs an coughed up 11 walks to go with his nine strikeouts. That’s obviously not a viable pitching line, but the 2016 results haven’t all been bad. He returned to his usual fastball velocity levels (91.6 mph) at the major league level, and was rather dominant over his time at Triple-A. In 18 1/3 innings there, Luebke pitched to a 2.45 ERA with 14.2 K/9 against just 1.5 BB/9.

Marlins Select Yefri Perez's Contract

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  • The Marlins selected the contract of outfielder Yefri Perez.  The 25-year-old Perez has been in the Marlins’ system since 2009, slashing .256/.310/.312 over 2209 PA.  It’s worth noting that both the Braves and Marlins didn’t need to make corresponding moves, as the teams were allowed an extra 26th man on the roster for tonight’s special game played in front of the troops at Fort Bragg.

Jeffrey Loria On Contending Marlins

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  • The Marlins’ acquisition of reliever Fernando Rodney earlier this week is part of the payoff in owner Jeffrey Loria’s long-term investment in the team’s infrastructure, details Peter Gammons of GammonsDaily.com. Loria installed a board of directors in the offseason when he named Mike Hill president of baseball operations and hired Don Mattingly as manager. Along with Loria, Hill and Mattingly, the Marlins’ decision-making board consists of several other higher-ups, each given a voice in the way the franchise operates. Loria also spent to improve the Marlins’ analytics department and beefed up their pro and amateur scouting budgets, per Gammons. In regards to his playoff-contending club, Loria told Gammons, “I can honestly say this is the best I’ve felt about the Marlins since 2003,” alluding to their second World Series-winning season. “There are times when I think this team is as good as that 2003 team, but now’s not the time for comparisons. Now is the time for very smart people to work hard to constantly make us better, and that includes the coaching staff Donnie has put together.”

Marlins After Pitching Help

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Setup Role For Fernando Rodney Benefits Marlins Financially

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  • Speaking of Rodney, his contract includes $3.25MM in incentives for games finished and a $2MM club option for 2017 that will increase in value based on the bonuses he receives, so the Marlins will save money by continuing to use him in a setup role.

    [SOURCE LINK]

Latest On Yulieski Gurriel

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Yulieski Gurriel remains a fascinating piece of the transactional picture as the deadline approaches, and Jon Heyman of todaysknuckleball.com writes that his market is heating up. The Marlins held a workout with the Cuban star, per the report, with the Giants also showing “strong interest” — though they’ve yet to host him for an up-close look.

We’ve already heard of San Francisco’s possible involvement, which GM Bobby Evans downplayed in recent comments. Other reports have connected the infielder to the Dodgers, Astros, Mets and Yankees, all of whom have held workouts. Heyman notes also that the Red Sox have taken a look, though he adds that Boston isn’t seen as being a likely destination.

The 32-year-old Gurriel is a legend in his home nation, where he has been one of the best players since reaching Serie Nacional as a teenager. And he also showed well in a brief stint in Japan’s NPB two years back. With an advanced bat and polished glove that’s capable of slotting in at third, second, and perhaps the corner outfield, it’s not hard to imagine a fit with many organizations.

Gauging his value is another matter. While there’s some possibility that he’ll be viewed as a deadline addition of sorts, the expectation is that Gurriel will need a decent bit of time to get up to speed in the minors after a long layoff from competitive action. That uncertainty leaves some room for variability.

Rival executives tell Heyman that Gurriel is looking for a deal that would cover this season and four more thereafter. His camp seems to be seeking something in the range of $10MM to $12MM per year, with one source telling Heyman that it wouldn’t be surprising if the veteran could achieve between $40MM and $50MM in total guarantee over a three or four-year term.

MLBTR’s Mark Polishuk recently examined the possible market for Gurriel’s services, though that piece was written before the recent connections were reported. He and Steve Adams suggested that the contract given to Hector Olivera by the Dodgers (about $10MM annually) as a comparable. In this case, though, a shorter length (given his age) and perhaps a greater AAV (given his better pedigree and the market situation) are certainly possible.

Marlins Designate Jo-Jo Reyes

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The Marlins have designated lefty Jo-Jo Reyes for assignment, per a club announcement. Miami also optioned righty Brian Ellington to Triple-A, with those moves designed to clear the way for the promotion of southpaw Justin Nicolino.

[Related: Updated Marlins Depth Chart]

Reyes, 31, has made just two major league appearances since the end of the 2011 campaign, including a single showing this year for Miami. After working as a starter for the vast majority of his career, he has spent most of the 2016 season throwing from the pen at Triple-A. On the year, he owns a 4.17 ERA with 6.6 K/9 against 2.7 BB/9.

The 24-year-old Nicolino will get another shot at holding down a big league job after posting a disappointing 5.17 ERA in his first ten starts this year. Nicolino struck out just 4.4 batters per nine, though that was an improvement on his meager output in that department in 2015. He has been effective at Triple-A, though, with a 2.82 ERA and 5.2 K/9 against 1.6 K/9 over 38 1/3 frames.

Marlins Acquire Fernando Rodney

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Declaring their intentions to push for the postseason in 2016, the Marlins have struck a deal to acquire veteran right-hander Fernando Rodney from the Padres. Miami parted with interesting young righty Chris Paddack in the swap, which ESPN’s Keith Law first reported (Twitter links).

Jun 19, 2016; San Diego, CA, USA; San Diego Padres relief pitcher Fernando Rodney (56) pitches during the ninth inning against the Washington Nationals at Petco Park. Mandatory Credit: Jake Roth-USA TODAY Sports

Rodney, 39, is in the midst of his latest rebound campaign, having posted a sparkling 0.31 ERA with 10.4 K/9, 3.8 BB/9 and a career-best 59 percent ground-ball rate in 28 2/3 innings as San Diego’s closer. He’s saved 17 games for the Friars, but he may be ticketed for setup duties with the Fish, as Miami’s A.J. Ramos has had a strong season of his own. The 29-year-old Ramos has posted a 1.74 ERA and averaged 11 strikeouts per nine innings, although he’s also seen his control abandon him somewhat in 2016, as he’s averaging a somewhat troublesome 5.2 walks per nine innings.

Miami started from behind in the bullpen this year when Carter Capps went down to Tommy John surgery and Kyle Barraclough failed to win a job out of camp. Things have ticked up, with David Phelps emerging as a quality option and Barraclough returning with his two-true-outcomes approach (over half of the batters he faces strike out or walk). But the Fish also saw Bryan Morris go down mid-season, taking another set-up man out of the picture, and the overall unit has suffered from a lack of depth.

Adding Rodney will not only infuse another high-octane arm at the back of the pen, but will increase the quality of the pitching appearing in other situations. That’s not to say that things are perfect now; in particular, adding a quality lefty would appear to make sense. And while the team is largely set on the offensive side of the fence, but has long been said to have interest in a starter or two.

[Related: Updated Marlins Depth Chart]

The Marlins typically operate with a notoriously slim payroll, but Rodney’s contract is affordable enough that virtually any club could’ve fit him onto its ledger. He’s earning a $1.6MM base salary this season, and his contract includes a club option for the 2017 campaign that comes with a $2MM buyout. The pact does contain incentives that could bring the value of both his 2016 salary and his 2017 option to $7MM, though a large portion of those incentives are tied to games finished.

Thus far, Rodney has locked in an additional $250K for completing 20 games, and he’d earn that same amount again upon reaching 30 games finished. Rodney would earn $500K for reaching 40 games finished and an additional $500K for every five games finished beyond that point through 65 games, but if he’s working in a setup capacity, his chances to close out games will naturally be limited. Rodney also earns $500K for appearing in his 40th, 50th and 60th games of the season.

All told, it seems likely to expect that Rodney will earn at least $2.85MM this season (20 games finished, plus appearing in at least 50 games), and the value of his conditional club option will increase to match that sum. Even if Rodney clears $3MM in 2016 earnings, that’d still be a more than reasonable price based on his 2016 output to date.

In order to gain the low cost and relatively high-upside reliever, Miami had to part with a fairly intriguing prospect. Paddack was just an eighth-round pick in the 2015 draft, but he has been nothing short of remarkable at the Class A level in 2016. Over 28 1/3 innings, he has allowed a ridiculous nine hits and carries a brilliant 0.95 ERA with a 48-to-2 K/BB ratio. MLB.com’s Jonathan Mayo and Jim Callis rate him the 17th-best prospect on an poorly-regarded Marlins farm — the same offseason ranking he received from Baseball America — but it seems fair to say that his star is on the rise.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

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