Offseason In Review: Miami Marlins
The Marlins have become synonymous with Major League fire sales after gutting the team once again.
Major League Signings
- Jon Rauch, RP: one year, $1MM
- Placido Polanco, 3B: one year, $2.75MM
- Juan Pierre, OF: one year, $1.6MM.
- Total Spend: $5.35MM
Notable Minor League Signings
- Casey Kotchman, Chone Figgins, Chad Qualls, Matt Downs, Kevin Slowey, Mitch Talbot, Michael Wuertz, Austin Kearns, Nick Green, John Maine, Kevin Kouzmanoff, Jonathan Albaladejo, Doug Mathis.
Trades and Claims
- Acquired SS Yunel Escobar, IF Adeiny Hechavarria, SP Henderson Alvarez, OF Jake Marisnick, C Jeff Mathis, SP Justin Nicolino and SP Anthony DeSclafani from Blue Jays for SP Josh Johnson, SP Mark Buehrle, SS Jose Reyes, IF/OF Emilio Bonifacio, and C John Buck.
- Acquired IF Derrick Dietrich from Rays for SS Yunel Escobar.
- Acquired IF Yordy Cabrera from Athletics for RP Heath Bell.
- Claimed OF Alfredo Silverio from Dodgers in Rule 5 draft.
- Claimed SP Braulio Lara from Rays in Rule 5 draft.
Notable Losses
- John Buck, Yunel Escobar, Jose Reyes, Emilio Bonifacio, Scott Cousins, Heath Bell, Chad Gaudin, Josh Johnson, Juan Carlos Oviedo, Mark Buehrle, Sandy Rosario.
Needs Addressed
Marlins owner Jeffrey Loria explained to reporters in February that the team needed to "push the restart button" after their splashy 2011-12 offseason spending binge failed to produce a winning club and the accompanying ticket sales in the inaugural season of the new ballpark. The restart process actually began in July, when the Marlins traded Anibal Sanchez, Omar Infante, Hanley Ramirez, Randy Choate, Edward Mujica, and Gaby Sanchez for younger, cheaper players. They took a step further in October, firing manager Ozzie Guillen and trading pricey reliever Heath Bell.
The team's actions up to this point were somewhat defensible. Jacob Turner, Nate Eovaldi, Brian Flynn, Rob Brantly, Zack Cox, Gorkys Hernandez, and Yordy Cabrera were acquired in those trades. The young players received had some warts, but the traded Marlins veterans were either impending free agents (Anibal Sanchez, Infante, Choate) or slipping in performance and/or overpaid (Ramirez, Gaby Sanchez, Bell, Mujica). Many teams would have chosen not to spend $95.5MM to retain the three free agents, would have welcomed the payroll flexibility gained by moving the other four, and might have deemed the Guillen experiment a failure after one year. The Red Sox, for example, pushed the restart button in a similar way by shedding Kevin Youkilis, Adrian Gonzalez, Carl Crawford, Josh Beckett, and Nick Punto and firing volatile manager Bobby Valentine.
In November, however, the Marlins made it clear that they were not just retooling to take another shot at contending in 2013. The payroll flexibility was not about reallocating money toward other players; it was about keeping the money and slicing payroll drastically. The Marlins and Blue Jays shook the baseball world with a 12-player trade, in which the Marlins sent starters Josh Johnson and Mark Buehrle, starting shortstop Jose Reyes, utility man Emilio Bonifacio, and catcher John Buck to the Blue Jays. The Marlins ditched over $160MM in contractual commitments to Johnson, Buehrle, Reyes, and Buck.
Aside from the desire to reduce their financial commitments drastically, the Marlins acquired a collection of young players to bolster their farm system. In the view of Baseball America, they acquired two top 100 prospects from the Jays in the trade: center fielder Jake Marisnick (pictured) and lefty Justin Nicolino. ESPN's Keith Law seems to feel similarly about the total value of the pair. The Marlins also acquired useful young players in Alvarez, DeSclafini, Hechavarria, and Derek Dietrich (for Yunel Escobar). However, it is clear to me that adding the best young players possible was secondary to shedding contracts, because the Marlins would have gotten more back by auctioning off Reyes, Johnson, and Bonifacio separately while showing a willingness to include a notable amount of cash with Reyes. I think they would have had a harder time unloading Buehrle and Buck had they not been bundled into the megadeal.
When the dust settled, the Marlins obviously improved their farm system. By how much is subjective. Loria was quick to suggest his team's farm system is now fifth in baseball, a nod to Baseball America's rankings, as opposed to 16th as per ESPN's Keith Law. Loria left out the fact that the team's five best prospects, as ranked by BA, were already in the organization prior to the offseason purge. Ultimately the Marlins have a couple of very good outfield prospects, four years of Giancarlo Stanton, fairly interesting young players around the infield, and an enviable collection of young pitchers. The Marlins have at least drawn praise for choosing former catcher Mike Redmond to manage these kids.
Technically we should mention the $5.35MM the Marlins spent on Rauch, Polanco, and Pierre. They're veteran placeholders, something even the cheapest rebuilding team usually acquires each offseason. At least the Marlins can be a drawing card for low-rent free agents, since the team can provide playing time. Aside from Stanton, who is hopefully part of the Marlins' plan for the future, the team is bereft of veterans with trade value. A different team might spin a good first half from Ricky Nolasco plus relief for his $11.5MM salary into a decent prospect this summer, but it's reasonable to expect the Marlins to prioritize the salary relief.
Questions Remaining
There's an argument for the Marlins' binge-and-purge model, if done right. Baseball Nation's Marc Normandin made the case in November 2011 that the Marlins had "loaded up and burned down successfully twice now," and the resulting pair of championships beat rooting for the Pirates, even if the Marlins were also hard to watch between their '97 and '03 titles. One problem is that the Marlins didn't binge all that well in the 2011-12 offseason. Bell was a clear overpay from Day 1, Buehrle was the second-best free agent starter in a weak crop, and the team opened 2012 with multiple issues.
Binging and purging on free agents has major consequences: fans hate you for it, and free agents don't want to sign with you. The Marlins have taken a desirable place to play, Miami, and made it something free agents will make a point to avoid, as they do with a few other big league cities. As for the fans, it's easier for an owner to play fast and loose with them when the prospect of moving the team is still viable. Looking only at the roster and contracts, the Marlins' purge would have made them more valuable to a potential new owner if not for one thing: the $639MM, mostly publicly-financed ballpark they had built. Because of the toxic situation the Marlins' ownership created, it might take a three-year run of success to even see if baseball has a chance in Miami. The team would be in a much better position had they never binged in the first place.
Is there still a way to lock up Stanton and win back a few fans? Loria knows he'll have to let the 23-year-old slugger play out the season, at which point a commitment over $100MM may be required. Money talks, even the Marlins' money, but it might have to be a precedent-shattering deal to convince Stanton. The counterargument is to trade him this summer, since the team still has plenty of needs and Loria's reputation can't get much worse anyway. Before you cook up a lopsided trade proposal in the comment section, though, keep in mind that Stanton is far, far more valuable on the trade market than Reyes or Johnson was.
Overview
The Marlins chose an extremely unpopular path this offseason, although at least they didn't play it safe. Nothing Loria can say will change the public's perception of him and the team. The franchise might still be saved, if Loria eventually sells. It could be a nice situation for a new owner: Loria takes the fall for the fire sale, and maybe in two or three years the Marlins will begin a sustained run of success. But for 2013, at least, this team might not crack 70 wins.
Cafardo On Red Sox, Vazquez, Stanton, Cano
In today's column, Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe writes that even though the 2013 Red Sox may not knock your socks off, they could still be extremely effective. In theory, Boston could have used their wiggle room on the likes of Josh Hamilton, Adam LaRoche, and Cody Ross. Instead, the club's shopping spree yielded Mike Napoli, Shane Victorino, Jonny Gomes, David Ross, Stephen Drew, and Ryan Dempster. However, the BoSox have set themselves up for bigger things in the long run and they could still be competitive in '13. Here's more from Cafardo..
- The Red Sox, Nationals, Yankees, Orioles, and Brewers had major interest in free agent pitcher Javier Vazquez before knee surgery put his season in jeopardy. “Never say never,” said a major league source close to the hurler, “but we won’t see him in the immediate future.”
- One AL executive cautions not to rule out the Tigers as a major player for the Marlins' Giancarlo Stanton when the time comes. Tigers GM Dave Dombrowski has strong ties to the Marlins from his time with them and may have the chips to get a deal done. Detroit could use third baseman/outfielder Nick Castellanos, outfielder Avisail Garcia, righty Rick Porcello, and others to entice Miami.
- One NL executive says that he is envious of the position that Robinson Cano finds himself in. “He’s going to have the Yankees and the Dodgers offering him a record amount of money,” said the exec. GM Brian Cashman says he has already offered a “significant” contract, but there's no reason for the Scott Boras client to take the deal when considering how much the Dodgers may be willing to bid.
- Royals outfielder Jeff Francoeur had the worst WAR among everyday players last season, but at age 29, he feels that he is just entering his prime. It appears that the Royals would be willing to move him and his strong arm in the outfield could attract interest.
NL East Notes: Phillies, Stanton, Marlins
Baseball Prospectus' preseason projections have the Nationals and Braves ahead of the Phillies in the National League East. That's how the standings looked in 2012, and most observers seem to expect similar results in 2013. However, Phillies special assistant Pat Gillick sees things differently. Here are the details…
- Gillick told Bob Brookover of the Philadelphia Inquirer that he believes the Phillies can contend for "two or three more years." Gillick, the team's former GM, said he likes the club's approach this spring. "They really want to win. When people have that attitude, it carries them a long way," he said (link via the Miami Herald).
- The Marlins renewed the contract of Giancarlo Stanton for $537K, Clark Spencer of the Miami Herald reports. Stanton's not earning much more than the MLB minimum of $490K for now, but he'll earn a substantial raise one year from now when he's arbitration eligible for the first time.
- Marlins fans agree that owner Jeffrey Loria isn't good for baseball in Miami, Greg Cote of the Miami Herald reports. Loria addressed reporters multiple times this past week, offering insight about the team’s busy offseason and future direction.
East Notes: Wang, Yankees, Rays, Marlins
The Yankees are among the teams keeping an eye on Chien-Ming Wang, who threw six shutout innings against Australia in the World Baseball Classic, tweets Joel Sherman of the New York Post. The Aussies may not be the toughest team in the WBC, but Wang looked strong and probably helped his case for hooking on with the Bombers or another club as pitching depth. Here's more out of the AL and NL East..
- MLBPA chief Michael Weiner said this morning that there's "some legitimacy" to the Rays' management concerns that the new CBA has not helped them in terms of competitive balance, tweets Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times.
- Weiner went on to say that he is "disappointed" in the Rays' attendance figures, but neither contraction nor relocation have come up as possibilities. He also says there is a curiosity to see what could happen with stadium on other side of Tampa, closer to Orlando (Twitter links).
- Mets catcher John Buck says that he's keeping himself out of the beef between his former Marlins teammates and the club's management, writes Juan C. Rodriguez of the Sun Sentinel. Jose Reyes and Mark Buehrle have both spoken out against Miami owner Jeffrey Loria.
- Marlins hitting coach Tino Martinez says that Jake Marisnick, who was acquired in the trade with the Blue Jays, could be the best defensive center fielder in the game right now, Sherman tweets.
Quick Hits: Yankees, Cano, Lohse, Nationals
On the latest edition of the Rosters & Rumblings podcast, MLBTR's Ben Nicholson-Smith and Jason Mart.inez of MLB Depth Charts discussed Robinson Cano's contract status and the Padres' 2013 chances. Here are some links to close out this Friday evening..
- A more restrained approach to spending by the Yankees doesn't mean that they can't re-sign Cano to a hefty, long-term deal, writes MLB.com's Mike Bauman. From a competitive standpoint, the Yanks cannot afford to lose Cano considering their aging lineup and the loss of power elsewhere.
- The Kyle Lohse situation shows that not even Scott Boras can truly command the invisible hand of the market, Jack Moore of Fangraphs writes. However, Boras has found a way around this in the past with pillow contracts and Moore looks at examples including Edwin Jackson, Ryan Madson, and Adrian Beltre.
- Jim Callis of Baseball America takes a stab at predicting the 2016 World Series and has the Nationals topping the Rays. Callis sees the Nats' stable of first-rounders powering the club in the years to come and envisions Anthony Rendon and Lucas Giolito emerging by this time.
- The Marlins are giving non-roster invitee Michael Wuertz a chance at salvaging his career, writes Clark Spencer of the Miami Herald.
NL East Notes: Byrd, Hawkins, Feliciano, Marlins, Mets
Here's a look at some items on the Mets and Marlins..
- Mets outfielder Marlon Byrd says that he may retire if he doesn't make the club out of spring training, writes Mike Puma of the New York Post. However, the 35-year-old stands a good chance of winding up in orange and blue this year given the state of the Mets' outfield. Byrd was released before he could serve his 50-game suspension last season, but he won't have to serve any more time on it in 2013.
- Under the new collective bargaining agreement, a player with significant MLB experience the previous season who comes to camp the next year on a minor league deal gets an early decision on whether he has made the team. Mets vets LaTroy Hawkins, Pedro Feliciano, and Tim Byrdak qualify, assistant GM John Ricco tells Adam Rubin of ESPNNewYork.com. Because of that, the Mets must either inform those three they've made the team, cut them a check for $100K to go to the minors, or release them by March 26th.
- Mark Buehrle is happy to have moved on from his short stay with the Marlins and isn't dwelling on owner Jeffrey Loria's PR campaign in Miami, writes Jayson Stark of ESPN.com. "I saw some of it and pretty much didn't pay attention to it," the left-hander said, "because I know what I was told and I saw what he was saying, and they weren't the same thing. So I mean, I guess he's got to do what he's got to do to get the fans back. But whatever."
NL East Notes: Wright, Marlins, Adams
The NL East includes a broad range of payrolls, from the Phillies at $150MM-plus to the Marlins below $40MM. Here's are some notes from the division…
- Carlos Beltran told Mike Puma of the New York Post that David Wright should be able to handle the pressure that comes with a nine-figure contract. "He’s been with the organization a long time, so there is nothing he needs to change,” said Beltran, who signed a seven-year $119MM deal with the Mets as a free agent following the 2004 season.
- Marlins owner Jeffrey Loria said newcomer Adeiny Hechavarria has Hanley Ramirez’s endorsement, Clark Spencer of the Miami Herald reports. “When Hanley tells you ‘He is better than I am, you’ve got a great guy with great hands,’ it’s amusing to listen to,” Loria said. The Marlins, who traded Ramirez to Los Angeles last summer, acquired Hechavarria from Toronto in a blockbuster deal with the Blue Jays in November.
- Reliever Mike Adams would likely be with a different team had the Phillies completed their deal with the Astros for Wilton Lopez, reports Jim Salisbury of CSNPhilly.com. GM Ruben Amaro Jr. acknowledged that the Phillies "probably would not have" signed Adams had the club not pulled back from trading for Lopez (since dealt to the Rockies) for undisclosed reasons following his physical.
Jeff Todd contributed to this post.
East Notes: Blue Jays, Marlins, Mets, Napoli
Here are a few notes from the AL and NL East..
- Justin Germano appeared to have a shot at a job in the Blue Jays rotation when the Jays signed him in November, but now he's nowhere near the rotation picture, MLB.com's Gregor Chisholm writes. After the acquisitions of Josh Johnson, Mark Buehrle and R.A. Dickey, the Jays don't have as much need for the journeyman, who struck out 52 batters and walked 21 while posting a 6.20 ERA in 69.2 innings with the Cubs and Red Sox last season. "Obviously nobody knew they were going to do what they did," Germano says. "It's not the most ideal situation for me but I'm happy to be here, and I hope I can be part of this team because they're going to do some good things this year."
- Mets general manager Sandy Alderson, whose first big move upon taking the reigns in New York was to ship out star outfielder Carlos Beltran to San Francisco for pitching prospect Zack Wheeler, has been validated by the results, writes Tyler Kepner of the New York Times. While Wheeler has yet to make his regular-season debut with the Mets, the young righty's continued development and increasing "notoriety" has already led Alderson to feel what he described as a "kind of a confirmation."
- Tim Dahlberg of the Associated Press wonders whether the Marlins' Jeffrey Loria is the worst owner in sports history. Dahlberg cites the trade of Johnson, Buehrle and Jose Reyes to the Jays, and points to Buehrle and Reyes' backloaded contracts to suggest that trading them was part of the plan all along.
- Mike Napoli has previously explained how surprised he was to learn that he had a potentially serious hip condition known as avascular necrosis. As reported by ESPN's Gordon Edes, Napoli was not and is not experiencing any symptoms: "I really didn't know what was going on. I don't feel anything. … I'm doing everything, and I feel great." After his original three-year, $36MM deal with the Red Sox was undone when his physical revealed the condition, Napoli instead agreed to play for Boston on a one-year, $5MM deal with incentives that could bring the total value to $13MM.
Jeff Todd contributed to this post.
Scott Boras To Represent Jose Fernandez
Agent Scott Boras is now representing top Marlins prospect Jose Fernandez, MLB.com's Joe Frisaro reports. Fernandez was previously represented by Team One Management.
"We are very excited about having Jose," said Boras. "He has the potential to be a future ace." Fernandez, the Marlins' top pick in the 2011 draft, had 10.6 K/9 and 2.4 BB/9 with a 1.75 ERA in 134 innings for Class-A Greensboro and Advanced-A Jupiter in 2012.
For agency info on over 1,700 players, take a look at MLBTR's Agency Database.
Quick Hits: Qualifying Offers, Gardenhire, Booty
The MLBPA's Michael Weiner calls MLB's qualifying offer system "mostly good" but imperfect, Mark Feinsand of the New York Daily News reports (on Sulia). Weiner expresses concern about the fact that Kyle Lohse is currently without a team, and suggests that Michael Bourn and Adam LaRoche might have gotten bigger contracts if not for the qualifying offer system. Weiner says "there will be discussions" about improving it. But, Weiner says, the system reduced the number of players whose free agency status was connected to draft pick compensation from "over 30" to nine.
In the 2012 draft, however, teams only lost nine picks as a result of signing free agents, and only three of those picks were first-rounders. In 2013, the qualifying offer system will reduce the number of lost picks only slightly. Three teams (the Nationals, Braves and Angels) have already lost their first-rounders, and there could be another when Lohse signs. The Indians, meanwhile, will lose two later picks for their signings of Nick Swisher and Bourn.
Here are more notes from around the majors..
- Twins manager Ron Gardenhire isn't concerned about the fact that his contract expires after the season, reports Bob Nightengale of USA Today. "I'd like to stay here," says Gardenhire. "If it works out, it works. If it doesn't work out here, will I manage somewhere else? Well, I know I'm not ready to quit being a manager." The Twins lost 96 games in 2012 after dropping 99 in 2011.
- Buster Olney of ESPN argues that MLB should ban home-plate collisions. Olney quotes a source who puts the dollar value (based on the value of a marginal win) of blocking home plate at $125K, and points out that the Giants lost far more than that when Buster Posey missed much of last season with an injury sustained in a home-plate collision.
- The Marlins and Diamondbacks have discussed the status of pitcher Josh Booty, Steve Gilbert of MLB.com writes. The 37-year-old Booty is a non-roster invitee to Diamondbacks camp, but the Marlins drafted him with the fifth overall pick in 1994 and signed him with the idea that he would not pursue football. After he retired from baseball to play quarterback at LSU, the Marlins placed him on the restricted list, meaning that they technically still own his rights. Diamondbacks president Derrick Hall says the Marlins won't worry about it, however, unless Booty establishes himself as a potentially credible big-leaguer. "The Marlins are OK. They said go ahead and use him how you want in the spring," Hall says. "Their concern is if he's Major League material, they either have the right to him or the right to a trade. That's OK, we'll cross that path when we need to."