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A.J. Puk Likely To Open Season In Marlins’ Rotation

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The Marlins revealed back in December that they planned to stretch lefty A.J. Puk out and plug him back into a starting role after he’s spent his entire career to date in the bullpen. Puk, a former standout starter at the University of Florida and a starter for most of his minor league tenure, is now “a frontrunner” to claim the fourth spot in Miami’s rotation, Barry Jackson of the Miami Herald reports.

Puk will turn 29 in April. He’s never made a big league start but has started 42 games in the minors — most coming early in his tenure. The former No. 6 overall draft pick (2016) moved to the bullpen in 2019 after undergoing Tommy John surgery the year prior. Puk took well to that relief role, debuting in the majors with 11 1/3 innings late in 2019. He held opponents to four runs on ten hits and five walks with 13 strikeouts — good for a 3.18 ERA. He looked to have locked up a spot on the 2020 roster, but Puk experienced shoulder pain the following spring and wound up missing the season due to an eventual debridement surgery.

The 2021 season was a rough one for Puk, though that’s not entirely surprising for a pitcher who’d undergone Tommy John surgery and shoulder surgery within 24 months of each other. He split the year between Triple-A and the big leagues, posting an ERA north of 6.00 in both settings. The 2022 campaign finally brought a breakout for the talented but snakebitten southpaw; he pitched 66 1/3 innings out of the Oakland bullpen and worked to a 3.12 ERA with a 27% strikeout rate, 8.2% walk rate and 43.4% ground-ball rate.

The A’s, by then in the midst of a complete rebuild, traded Puk to the Marlins in exchange for outfielder JJ Bleday — another former top-10 overall pick (No. 4) who’d not yet lived up to the expectations associated with that lofty draft status. It worked out nicely for the Fish. In 56 2/3 frames, Puk logged a 3.97 ERA with far more encouraging secondary marks: 32.2% strikeout rate, 5.4% walk rate, 15.1% swinging-strike rate, 2.66 SIERA. Puk wound up leading the Marlins with 15 saves.

Clearly encouraged by the per-inning strength of those results, the Marlins will now try to maximize Puk’s workload by moving him into a starting role. Much has been made of the Marlins’ enviable pitching depth over the years, but Puk’s move to the rotation is in part due to the fact that Miami’s stash of promising young arms is no longer as deep as it once was.

Sandy Alcantara underwent Tommy John surgery and will miss the entire 2024 season. Pablo Lopez was traded to the Twins in exchange for Luis Arraez. Braxton Garrett is behind schedule in camp due to a shoulder issue and is unlikely to be ready for Opening Day. Top prospects Sixto Sanchez and Max Meyer have been slowed by injuries. Sanchez, in particular, hasn’t pitched since 2020. Another touted arm, Jake Eder, was traded to the White Sox for Jake Burger. Southpaw Trevor Rogers has struggled through injuries and poor results since his second-place finish in the 2021 NL Rookie of the Year voting.

If Puk is able to successfully move back into a starting role, it’d obviously be a boon for the Fish. It’s a move that could reap long-term benefits, too, as Puk is controllable through the 2026 season. The Marlins will presumably be careful with his workload after the lefty pitched just 59 1/3 innings last year between the majors and a brief minor league rehab assignment following a nerve issue in his elbow. But if he can progress to pitching 100-plus innings this year, it’s easier to envision any restrictions being removed for the 2025 campaign.

There’s some risk to the move, of course. Puk has a lengthy injury history and is no guarantee to hold up with a full rotation workload. By moving him to the starting staff, Miami is also notably weakening its relief corps. The Puk transition bodes well for Tanner Scott, who’ll likely spend his entire platform season before free agency as the Marlins’ closer. But beyond Scott, the Fish will rely on a series of arms with short track records and/or notable injury histories. Andrew Nardi, Anthony Bender, JT Chargois and George Soriano all have had big league success but have all yet to establish themselves as consistent, year-to-year performers.

Assuming the Marlins indeed stick with this plan, Puk will slot into the rotation behind Jesus Luzardo, Eury Perez and Edward Cabrera. The aforementioned Rogers and fellow lefty Ryan Weathers are the leading candidates for the fifth spot, Jackson notes, with Rogers a likelier fit than Weathers. Sanchez, once viewed as a rotation building block, is out of minor league options but figures to head to the bullpen if he’s healthy enough to make the roster. Whoever grabs the fifth spot will essentially be a placeholder for Garrett anyhow. That said, given workload concerns for Puk and the general frequency with which pitchers get injured, it’s likely that all of Puk, Rogers, Garrett and Weathers will wind up starting a fair share of games in South Florida this season.

Pirates’ Trade Talks For Rotation Help Have Slowed

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Throughout the late stages of the offseason, the Pirates have reportedly been exploring the trade market for rotation help, with the Marlins (specifically, right-hander Edward Cabrera) being the team most frequently suggested as a potential trade partner. However, while the Bucs talked with the Fish and surely several other clubs about deals to bolster the rotation, Jason Mackey of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette reports that talks have “lost steam” and that GM Ben Cherington now says he’s increasingly focused on the arms in house.

“If there are things we can do to make the team better, we’re gonna stay on that,” Cherington tells Mackey. “No guarantee those things happen. We’re mostly focused on the guys who are here.”

The Pirates have three slam-dunk members of their Opening Day rotation: Mitch Keller, Martin Perez and Marco Gonzales. Keller, who recently signed a five-year contract extension, will get the Opening Day nod. There are still a pair of open rotation jobs, however, and Cherington suggested there are six or seven options vying for those two opportunities.

The names currently competing include a mix of young prospects, rebound candidates coming off a down 2023 showing, and veterans hoping to win a spot. While the Pirates have already informed 2023 No. 1 overall draft pick Paul Skenes that he won’t make the Opening Day roster, fellow top prospect Jared Jones (No. 74 on Baseball America’s top 100 list) is firmly in the mix. Jones may not have the same ceiling as Skenes, but Skenes pitched just 6 2/3 innings last year following the draft. Jones, on the other hand, logged a combined 3.85 ERA, 27.6% strikeout rate and 9.4% walk rate in 126 1/3 frames between Double-A and Triple-A in ’23. He’s pitched 4 2/3 shutout innings in camp.

Jones, 22, was specifically called out by manager Derek Shelton as a candidate for a spot in the Opening Day rotation (X link via Alex Stumpf of MLB.com). He’d need to be added to the 40-man roster, which could potentially work against him. That’s not true of Roansy Contreras, Quinn Priester, Luis Ortiz, Bailey Falter and Kyle Nicolas, each of whom is on the 40-man roster. (Lefty Jackson Wolf is as well, but the Pirates already optioned him to Double-A in their first wave of spring cuts).

Contreras and Falter have the most experience of the bunch. Both are looking to rebound from ugly 2023 showings. Contreras looked like a potential rotation staple as recently as 2022, when he pitched 95 innings of 3.79 ERA ball with passable, if unspectacular, strikeout and walk rates (21.1%, 9.6%). However, he lost more than a mile off his heater in ’23 and took a step back in virtually every rate category of note. He’s still only 24 years old and is just two years removed from being a top-100 prospect himself, so there’s ample time for him to figure things out. He’s out of minor league options, meaning he’ll make the roster one way or another — be it in the rotation or in the bullpen. Pirates fans will want to check out Mackey’s piece in full, as it more fully details some of the gains Contreras has shown thus far in camp.

Falter was acquired at the 2022 trade deadline in a swap sending utilityman Rodolfo Castro to the Phillies. The 26-year-old was never as touted a prospect as Contreras was, but the two followed relatively similar arcs otherwise: brief MLB debut in 2021, solid back-of-the-rotation results in 2022, poor showing in 2023. Falter tossed 84 innings with a 3.86 ERA as the Phillies’ fifth starter in ’22, fanning 21.2% of his opponents against an exceptional 4.9% walk rate. Like Contreras, he saw his strikeout, walk, swinging-strike and home run rates all back up in 2023 as he finished out the season with a 5.36 ERA in 80 2/3 frames. Also like Contreras, he’s out of minor league options and will need to make the roster or else be traded or exposed to waivers.

Priester, Ortiz and Nicolas all have minor league options remaining and have all made their big league debuts (in quite brief fashion, for Nicolas). They all ranked within the organization’s top 15 prospects at Baseball America as recently as 2023. Priester and Ortiz both drew top-100 fanfare prior to their debuts. None of the three has established himself on the roster, however. Priester has the best minor league numbers of the group but has been hit harder than Ortiz in the big leagues. Ortiz throws the hardest but has displayed shakier command than Priester. Nicolas still hasn’t had much success above Double-A, so he seems likely ticketed for Triple-A Indianapolis to begin the year, particularly since he’s already been hit hard in camp.

The Bucs also have a pair of veterans who could compete for a job. Lefty Josh Fleming is on the 40-man roster after signing a split deal late in the winter. He’s out of options and can’t be sent down, but he’s spent the bulk of his MLB career as a swingman with the Rays and could be headed for a similar spot in Pittsburgh. Righty Chase Anderson is in camp on a non-roster deal. The 36-year-old hasn’t posted a sub-5.00 ERA in the big leagues since being traded by the Brewers following the 2019 season but has shown decently in Triple-A while bouncing around the league since then.

Braxton Garrett Unlikely To Be Ready For Opening Day

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Marlins lefty Braxton Garrett is behind schedule after dealing with some shoulder soreness early in camp and isn’t likely to be ready for Opening Day, manager Skip Schumaker announced this morning (X link via Jordan McPherson of the Miami Herald). Garrett threw a bullpen session today but the delayed start to his throwing progression likely won’t leave him with sufficient time to be built up for the start of the season. “He feels great now, but I think it’s dangerous when you’re trying to push a guy to make an Opening Day roster.” Schumaker said.

Garrett, now 26, has emerged as a key piece of the Miami rotation over the past couple of seasons, something recently explored by MLBTR’s Anthony Franco. The lefty posted a 3.58 earned run average over 17 starts in 2022, but still found himself sixth on the depth chart going into 2023. Injuries opened a path for him last year and he made the most of that chance, eventually logging 159 2/3 innings over 31 outings with a 3.66 ERA, 23.7% strikeout rate, 4.4% walk rate and 49.1% ground ball rate.

It sounds as though the concern from the club is minimal and Garrett may just miss the first couple of weeks of the schedule. If that proves to be the case, it likely won’t have a huge impact on the club’s plans but there may also be some ripple effects.

The club’s starting depth has made the Marlins a near-constant subject of trade rumors, though there are reasons why that might now be less likely. They traded Pablo López last offseason and Sandy Alcántara required Tommy John surgery late in 2023, putting him out of commission for the entire 2024 campaign. That left the club with a rotation mix consisting of Garrett, Jesús Luzardo, Eury Pérez, Edward Cabrera and Trevor Rogers coming into this winter.

The rumors around that group continued but the club didn’t line up a deal that they liked enough to pull the trigger on. Various teams around the league are currently discovering pitcher injuries, which perhaps could have lit up the phone in the Miami front office, but they have at least some concern of their own that could perhaps tamp down their appetite for a deal.

With Garrett likely to miss some time, it perhaps opens a rotation spot for A.J. Puk. He’s been an effective reliever over the past couple of years, including posting a 3.97 ERA with a 32.2% strikeout rate, 5.4% walk rate and 44.2% ground ball rate as a Marlin last year. He’s attempting to return to a rotation role this spring, as he served as an intriguing starting pitching prospect while climbing the minor league ladder.

Spring stats are always to be taken with a grain of salt but Puk has yet to allow a run over his first two outings, tossing five innings with nine strikeouts, three walks and just one hit. He will likely face some kind of workload limit at some point since he has been working as a reliever for a while. He tossed 125 innings the minors in 2017 but then missed all of 2018 due to Tommy John surgery and hasn’t hit 70 frames in any season since.

The Marlins also have Max Meyer on hand, though he will also be looking at limitations since he sat out all of 2023 rehabbing from his own Tommy John procedure. Roddery Muñoz and Darren McCaughan are also on the 40-man roster as depth options. If Garrett eventually gets built up and everyone else is healthy, Puk and Rogers have options and could theoretically be sent down for a while to monitor their workloads, as Rogers only tossed 18 innings last year due to biceps and lat injuries.

There are lots of talented options on hand but there’s also a fair amount of questions. The free agent market still features notable pitchers even though the calendar now reads March, so the Fish could reach out if they feel they need to bolster the group. It wouldn’t be realistic to expect a signing of Blake Snell or Jordan Montgomery but someone like Michael Lorenzen or Jake Odorizzi is more plausible.

RosterResource pegs the club’s payroll at $102MM right now. That would be the highest of the Bruce Sherman era, as he purchased the club in late 2017 and Cot’s Baseball Contracts lists their payroll below nine figures in each season since then.

Perhaps the club has little appetite to add to that figure, as they seemingly made little attempt to retain slugger Jorge Soler. It had been previously reported that the club had some contact with him while he was a free agent but he recently signed with the Giants and contradicted those reports. “We never had communication during the season or after the season, so, I knew I was not coming back,” Soler said, per Daniel Álvarez-Montes of El Extrabase.

NL East Notes: Braves, Lile, McNeil, Garrett, Rogers

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Because Atlanta Braves Holdings Inc., is a publicly-traded company, their obligatory financial reports provide an annual peek into the Braves’ business dealings, and Tim Tucker of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution shared the details of the company’s disclosure earlier this week.  ABH Inc. reported $641MM in revenue in 2023 from the Braves and the associated ballpark village next to Truist Park known as The Battery Atlanta — this figure represents a sizable jump from the $589MM in revenues from 20222.  Between Truist Park’s opening in 2017 and the success of the Battery as an attraction outside of just Braves gamedays, the Braves have seen revenues soar from $262MM in 2016 to last year’s $641MM number, with only a dip in 2020 due to the pandemic.

However, ABH Inc. still reported an overall operating loss of $46MM for 2023.  As per the team statement, baseball-related operating costs “increased primarily due to higher player salaries, including offseason trade activity in the fourth quarter, as well as increases under MLB’s revenue sharing plan.”  The operating profit for 2023 stood at $38MM, but dropped into the red due to $13MM drops for stock-based compensation and $71MM in depreciation and amortization.  (Tucker notes that “large deductions for depreciation and amortization are believed to be common for MLB teams.”)

The revenue increase has gone hand-in-hand with a big increase in the Braves’ payroll, as Atlanta is set to far exceed its club-record $205MM payroll from 2023.  The Braves are currently projected (as per RosterResource) for a payroll close to $228MM and a luxury tax number of $270MM.  After paying into the tax for the first time last season, the Braves have now gone well beyond the initial CBT threshold, as their projected $270.3MM tax number is now approaching the third penalization tier of $277MM.  The front office’s aggressive strategy of locking up star players to extensions has both increased spending but also built a powerhouse team that is expected to again contend for a World Series title.

Some more items from around the NL East…

  • Nationals outfield prospect Daylen Lile was stretchered off the field in a scary incident in today’s Spring Training game.  While attempting to catch a home run, Lile went over the right field fence and took a bad landing, drawing immediate calls for medical attention from Red Sox pitchers in the bullpen.  Lile reportedly gave a thumbs up while being removed from the field, according to Chelsea Janes of the Washington Post.  A second-round pick in the 2021 draft, the 21-year-old Lile missed all of the 2022 season recovering from Tommy John surgery, and is ranked by Baseball America as the 11th-best prospect in Washington’s farm system. [UPDATE: Manager Davey Martinez told Janes and other reporters that Lile will undergo a CAT scan.  Lile apparently landed hard on his lower back after his fall, but was able to move his feet.]
  • Jeff McNeil is dealing with some left biceps soreness and won’t hit for a few days, Mets manager Carlos Mendoza told reporters (including Mark W. Sanchez of the New York Post).  McNeil is still able to participate in fielding drills since he throws with his right arm, though his left arm continues to be a concern given how McNeil has a partially torn left UCL.  The thought was that McNeil would be fine after an offseason of recovery rather than surgery, and a biceps issue doesn’t necessarily hint at any further UCL damage.  The former NL batting champion and two-time All-Star is looking to bounce back from an underwhelming .270/.333/.378 slash line over 648 plate appearances in 2023.
  • Marlins manager Skip Schumaker provided media (including the Miami Herald’s Jordan McPherson and MLB.com) with some updates on starters Braxton Garrett and Trevor Rogers.  Garrett has been dealing with soreness in his left shoulder for a couple of weeks but has been throwing bullpen sessions and is on “normal progression now” towards throwing a live batting practice, Schumaker said.  Rogers is tentatively scheduled to make his Grapefruit League debut in a 20-pitch outing on Tuesday, as the Marlins have been building him slowly in camp in the aftermath of an injury-riddled 2023 season.  Rogers threw a live batting practice session on Thursday that left Schumaker impressed, as the southpaw “was throwing 93-94 mph in a setting with not much adrenaline.”

Marlins Sign Tim Anderson

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TODAY: The Marlins have officially announced Anderson’s signing.  Sandy Alcantara (who will miss all of 2024 recovering from Tommy John surgery) was placed on the 60-day injured list to create a 40-man roster spot for Anderson.

FEBRUARY 22: The Marlins and free agent shortstop Tim Anderson are in agreement on a one-year, $5MM contract, reports Jesse Rogers of ESPN. The deal is pending a physical. Anderson is repped by Excel Sports Management.

Anderson, 30, was arguably the best shortstop in a very weak middle infield class. A two-time All-Star and 2019 batting champ, he looked like one of the better shortstops in the majors as recently as a season ago. He’s coming off the worst year of his career, though, as he struggled to a .245/.286/.296 batting line in 524 plate appearances. Anderson connected on just one home run.

While his offensive profile has never been driven primarily by power, he reached double digits in homers each year between 2017-21. That dropped to six homers in a 2022 season cut short by a ligament tear in his left middle finger, although he still managed a .301/.339/.395 slash. His entire offensive profile plummeted last season.

Anderson struck out in 23.3% of his plate appearances, his highest rate since 2018. He put more than three-fifths of his batted balls on the ground, a personal-high clip. That led to his worst average and on-base marks since 2018 in addition to the lowest power production of his career.

That led the White Sox to buy Anderson out for $1MM in lieu of a $14MM club option, ending a strong eight-year run on Chicago’s South Side. General manager Chris Getz has kicked off at least an abbreviated rebuild, bringing in Paul DeJong on a modest $1.75MM free agent deal to solidify the defense.

Anderson has increasingly struggled on that side of the ball as well. By measure of Defensive Runs Saved, he has rated a combined 23 runs below average over the past two seasons. Only Bobby Witt Jr. has a lower total at the position. Statcast’s Outs Above Average metric hasn’t been nearly as bearish, grading Anderson slightly below par in both years. It’s possible that lower body injuries have played a role in that downturn. Over the past three seasons, he has missed time with a left hamstring strain, a right groin strain, and a sprained left knee (in addition to the aforementioned finger injury).

The veteran infielder expressed a willingness to move to the other side of the second base bag. That won’t be necessary in Miami, which has sought shortstop help throughout the winter. The Fish let Joey Wendle depart after a lackluster 2023 campaign. Jon Berti is best suited in a utility role, while none of Xavier Edwards, Jacob Amaya or Vidal Bruján is established at the MLB level.

Miami has a two-time batting champ, Luis Arraez, at the keystone. The up-the-middle pairing of Anderson and Arraez isn’t likely to be a great defensive group, but there’s significant offensive upside if Anderson rebounds. Between 2019-22, Anderson had an excellent .318/.347/.473 line in more than 1600 trips to the plate. Among hitters with at least 2000 plate appearances over the past five seasons, he’s still third in batting average. Arraez leads the way at .326, while only Freddie Freeman (.315) also stands above Anderson, who has hit .300 since 2019.

It’s a fairly inexpensive pickup for the Fish on what is remarkably their first major league free agent deal of the offseason. That means it’s also the first MLB contract for new president of baseball operations Peter Bendix, who has presided over a quiet winter in South Florida. Ever present payroll constraints contributed to Miami’s decision to let Jorge Soler walk after a 36-homer season. They haven’t replaced Soler at DH or addressed the rotation in response to Sandy Alcantara’s Tommy John surgery, but Anderson brings a higher ceiling than last year’s collection of shortstops.

Roster Resource calculates the team’s player payroll around $100MM. That’s above last season’s approximate $93MM season-opening mark but still places them firmly in the league’s bottom third in spending. Miami will need to make a corresponding 40-man roster move once the signing is finalized, but that’ll likely be accomplished by placing Alcantara on the 60-day injured list.

If Anderson returns to form, he’ll have a shot at a better multi-year deal a year from now. He’ll return to free agency next winter in advance of his age-32 season. Willy Adames headlines what otherwise looks like another weak group of free agent shortstops. Gleyber Torres will be the top second baseman, while Anderson and Amed Rosario (who signed a $1.5MM deal with Tampa Bay this week) are the most interesting rebound candidates.

Marlins, Vladimir Gutierrez Agree To Minor League Contract

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The Marlins are in agreement with right-hander Vladimir Gutiérrez on a minor league deal, reports Francys Romero (X link). He’ll be in major league camp as a non-roster invitee.

Gutiérrez joins the second organization of his career. The Cuban hurler was a high-profile international signee by the Reds back in 2016. Cincinnati paid a hefty $4.75MM for his services. Gutiérrez was just 21 at the time and began his affiliated stint in High-A. His prospect stock dimmed over the next couple seasons as he struggled at the higher levels of the minors.

Cincinnati nevertheless called Gutiérrez to the big leagues in 2021. He held a spot in the rotation for the majority of that season, starting 22 games and logging 114 innings. Gutiérrez allowed 4.74 earned runs per nine innings while striking out a below-average 17.7% of opposing hitters. He started eight of 10 appearances the following year and was tagged for a 7.61 ERA with nearly as many walks as strikeouts.

In early June, the Reds placed Gutiérrez on the injured list with forearm soreness. That often ominous diagnosis predated a Tommy John procedure the following month. He spent the remainder of that year and almost all of 2023 on the injured list. Gutiérrez logged 6 1/3 minor league innings late last season but didn’t return to the big leagues. The Reds placed him on waivers at the start of the offseason, sending him to free agency.

Now that he has put the surgery behind him, Gutiérrez profiles as rotation or long relief depth for the Fish. Miami hasn’t done much to address a rotation that lost Sandy Alcántara to Tommy John surgery last October. They acquired Darren McCaughan in a small trade with Seattle and have brought in Matt Andriese, Yonny Chirinos and Kyle Tyler on non-roster deals.

NL East Notes: Garrett, Wheeler, Robles, Matzek

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The Marlins kicked off Spring Training with a potential injury scare in the rotation, as Jordan McPherson of the Miami Herald relays that, per manager Skip Schumaker, southpaw Braxton Garrett is dealing with “general soreness” in his left shoulder. While shoulder injuries are among the more concerning ailments for pitchers, Schumaker made clear that Garrett hasn’t been shut down at this point with the club instead planning to “push back” the start to Garrett’s spring “until he feels better.” McPherson adds that Garrett continued to play catch late last week.

Garrett, 26, has quietly broken out as a quality mid-rotation arm for the Marlins over the past two seasons. In 48 appearances (47 starts) since the start of the 2022 season, Garrett has posted an impressive 3.63 ERA with a nearly-matching 3.64 FIP across 247 2/3 innings of work. During that time, the lefty has struck out a respectable 23.8% of batters faced while walking just 5.1%. The youngster’s strong peripheral numbers are rounded out by his ability to generate grounders, which he has done at an above-average 48.7% clip over the past two years. With Sandy Alcantara set to miss the entire 2024 campaign while rehabbing Tommy John surgery, Garrett figures to slot in toward the front of the Miami rotation this season alongside the likes of Jesus Luzardo and Eury Perez.

With Garrett’s health uncertain entering camp, it’s fair to wonder what impact his status may have on the club’s trade talks regarding members of their rotation. The Marlins have long been known to be listening on their controllable starting pitching in hopes of addressing other areas of their roster, with Luzardo receiving attention from the likes of the Orioles and Dodgers while the Pirates have also reportedly shown interesting in the club’s available rotation arms. While it’s unclear what impact, if any, Garrett’s current shoulder issue would have on his availability in trade, it’s possible the Marlins may be more hesitant to shop any of their starting options until they have more certainty on Garrett’s status. After all, a hypothetical trade of Luzardo would leave the Marlins with only Perez, Edward Cabrera, and Trevor Rogers as surefire starting options entering the 2024 season if Garrett were to require time on the injured list.

More from the NL East…

  • The Phillies have long been hoping to extend veteran ace Zack Wheeler, and comments from Wheeler himself last week indicated that the sides have opened extension talks with Spring Training now underway. While Wheeler indicated that he’s open to negotiating even once the season begins, president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski indicated to reporters (including Scott Lauber of the Philadelphia Inquirer) that while extending Wheeler is a “priority” for the club, his preference is for the sides to come together on a deal before the regular season begins. Wheeler has established himself as one of the league’s premiere starters since first suiting up for the Phillies during the shortened 2020 campaign. During his time in Philadelphia, the right-hander has pitched to an excellent 3.06 ERA with a 2.90 FIP in 101 starts during the regular season and has augmented that resume with an incredible 2.42 ERA in 63 1/3 postseason innings.
  • Victor Robles has patrolled center field for the Nationals on a regular basis ever since his rookie season back in 2019, though it’s possible that could change entering the 2024 season. As relayed by MASN’s Mark Zuckerman, manager Dave Martinez told reporters recently that there will be a “battle” between Robles and 24-year-old rookie Jacob Young for the starting center field job, though Martinez added that Robles has “a little bit of an upper hand” coming into camp. Robles has largely been a plus-glove center fielder with below average offense throughout his career, though in 2023 he appeared to flash more offensive upside as he slashed a solid .299/.385/.364. Unfortunately, that slash line came across just 126 trips to the plate as Robles spent most of the year on the injured list due to back injuries. Young, meanwhile, held his own in a 33-game cup of coffee in the majors last year with a decent .252/.322/.336 slash line in 122 trips to the plate.
  • Braves left-hander Tyler Matzek missed the entire 2023 season due to Tommy John surgery, but he told reporters (including Justin Toscano of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution) that he’s feeling good entering Spring Training and hopes to be ready for Opening Day, though he didn’t rule out a possible IL stint to open the season if he needs time to finish preparing to retake the mound. The 33-year-old’s return to the mound figures to provide a significant boost to Atlanta’s relief corps, as Matzek pitched to strong results over three seasons with the Braves prior to the injury. In 132 combined appearances, the southpaw posted a 2.92 ERA with a 3.34 FIP in 135 2/3 innings of work as he struck out 27.4% of batters faced.

Tanner Scott Wins Arbitration Hearing Against Marlins

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Left-hander Tanner Scott won his arbitration hearing with the Marlins, according to MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand (X link).  The Marlins were looking to pay Scott $5.15MM in 2023, but the reliever will instead earn his desired figure of $5.7MM.

The salary checks in just slightly under the $5.8MM that MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projected for Scott, but it’s still a very nice raise for the southpaw in his final year of arbitration eligibility.  Scott avoided arbitration in his first two winters of eligibility, and his $5.7MM salary is more than double the $2.825MM he earned in 2023.

The payday comes in the wake of the best season of Scott’s seven-year MLB career.  The lefty posted a 2.31 ERA over 78 innings for Miami, and only four pitchers topped Scott’s total of 74 appearances.  Beyond the durability, Scott’s Statcast page is a veritable sea of red, as he ranked in at least the 90th percentile of almost every major statistical category.  The eye-popping numbers included a 33.9% strikeout rate, 26.3% hard-hit ball rate, and 35.3% chase rate that all ranked among the league’s elite.

Scott’s 7.8% walk rate was modest in comparison, sitting at “only” the 60th percentile of all pitchers.  Yet this stat was perhaps the key element to Scott’s success, given how control problems have plagued his career — Scott had a career 14.2% walk rate prior to his greatly improved 7.8BB% last season.  Pundits and scouts have long felt that Scott had elite potential if he could ever harness his stuff, and 2023 is a very promising sign that Scott has now turned the corner at age 29.

Scott moved into the closer’s job down the stretch for Miami and looks to assume that same role heading into the coming season.  Since he is set to hit free agency next winter, Scott stands out as a potential trade chip if the Marlins aren’t in contention by the deadline.  There was even some speculative trade buzz around Scott this winter given the Marlins’ surplus of left-handed relievers, though the Fish already moved another southpaw last week when Steven Okert was dealt to the Twins for Nick Gordon.

Scott’s case was the final pending arbitration hearing of the 2023-24 offseason, and the players emerged with a winning record from this year’s slate of hearings.  Players won nine of the 15 cases that went to arbitration.

Marlins Made Recent Offer To Tim Anderson

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The Marlins recently made an offer to free-agent infielder Tim Anderson, reports Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic. Miami has been on the lookout for help at shortstop throughout the offseason. Their interest in Anderson isn’t a new revelation, but the fact that they just recently put forth an offer is certainly of note.

The 30-year-old Anderson became a free agent back in November when the White Sox declined a $14MM club option. That would’ve seemed unthinkable a year prior, as Anderson was one of the game’s top-hitting middle infielders from 2019-22. During that time, he led all qualified big leaguers in batting average and turned in an overall .318/.347/.473 line in more than 1600 plate appearances.

Fortunes can change quickly, however, and Anderson’s 2023 season was nothing short of calamitous. His average, on-base percentage and slugging percentage somehow all clocked in south of .300; his overall .245/.286/.296 slash and one home run rendered him one of baseball’s least-productive hitters. Anderson saw his exit velocity and hard-hit rate both drop, but the larger issue may have been a sky-high 61.1% ground-ball rate — a jump of nearly 10 percentage points over the 52% mark he’d posted in his career prior to the 2023 campaign. No matter how fast a player may or may not be, it’s difficult to be productive when close to two-thirds of batted balls are hammered into the ground.

On that note, it bears mentioning that Anderson’s speed took a notable hit in 2023. It’s not uncommon for players to lose a step as they enter their 30s, but Anderson’s downturn could well be due to injury. Anderson missed nearly a month early in the 2023 season due to a left knee strain, and the fact that his average sprint speed (per Statcast) dropped by about a full foot per second seems likely to be related. He’d sat between 28 ft/sec and 28.7 ft/sec every season of his career prior to 2023, never ranking lower than the 74th percentile of MLB position players. In 2023, he averaged 27.2 ft/sec and clocked into just the 45th percentile. He still went 13-for-15 in stolen base attempts, but Anderson has always been deft in that regard, evidenced by a career 81.3% success rate.

On what would presumably be a one-year contract, Anderson is a sensible buy-low candidate for a team in need of middle infield help. The Marlins fit that bill and could certainly stand to improve the lineup — which a healthier Anderson could well achieve — but the Miami defense is already quite suspect, which makes Anderson a less optimal fit. With Jake Burger at the hot corner, Luis Arraez at second base and Josh Bell at first base, the Fish already have three questionable infield defenders. Defensive metrics have panned Anderson’s glovework at shortstop for the past two years — making it harder to blame any shortcomings on last year’s injury. Questions about his defense were substantial enough that Anderson voiced a willingness to shift to second base following the ’23 season.

Presumably, that wouldn’t be necessary in Miami, although the Marlins could conceivably shift Arraez to first base and deploy Bell more as the designated hitter. Before trading Arraez to the Marlins, the Twins utilized him more at first base than at second base due to concerns about his defense and his history of knee troubles. Such an alignment could improve the overall defensive outlook of the team, though it would leave the Marlins with the same hole at shortstop they’re currently looking to fill.

It’s not clear how much the Marlins have to spend. Miami is the only team in baseball that has not signed a free agent to a big league contract this winter. They’ve effectively sat out that portion of the market, instead operating only in minor league deals and small trades around the fringes of the roster. Catcher Christian Bethancourt and utilitymen Nick Gordon and Vidal Brujan — all acquired via trade — are the only new additions to the roster so far. Miami has also added veterans like Curt Casali, Trey Mancini, Yonny Chirinos and Matt Andriese on minor league deals.

Angels Showing Interest In Amed Rosario

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The Angels are showing interest in free agents Amed Rosario and Enrique Hernández as they continue their search for infield depth, writes Jon Heyman of the New York Post. The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal tied the Halos to Hernández last month. They hadn’t been directly linked to Rosario before this point.

Rosario is coming off a pedestrian season split between the Guardians and Dodgers. The right-handed middle infielder hit .263/.305/.378 with six homers and 15 steals through 545 combined plate appearances. His power production ticked up a bit after the trade as the Dodgers more frequently leveraged him against lefty pitching. His .256/.301/.408 slash in 48 games was still a bit below average, though. Los Angeles left him off their playoff roster.

The former top prospect had posted roughly average numbers for Cleveland over the preceding two seasons. A durable fixture in the lineup at shortstop, he combined for a .282/.316/.406 slash between 2021-22. Rosario has always been an aggressive hitter who doesn’t hit for much power. His plus contact skills have contributed to three seasons batting above .280, giving him a decent offensive floor.

Where Rosario fits defensively is a bigger question. Public metrics have never looked kindly on his glove. His grades were especially poor in the first half of last season. Statcast and Defensive Runs Saved rated him between 11 and 16 runs worse than an average shortstop in fewer than 800 innings with the Guardians. The Dodgers used him more frequently at second base, his first MLB action on the right side of the infield, down the stretch.

Despite the mediocre platform year, Rosario is one of the better middle infielders available in a thin free agent class. He drew some interest from the Blue Jays and Red Sox early in the winter before those teams added other righty-hitting infielders (Isiah Kiner-Falefa and Vaughn Grissom, respectively).

More recently, Rosario was among a handful of shortstop possibilities tied to the Marlins. Barry Jackson and Craig Mish of the Miami Herald wrote this morning that Miami has shown more significant interest in Rosario and Gio Urshela than they have in other reported candidates like Tim Anderson, Nick Ahmed and Adalberto Mondesi.

While Miami has a path to everyday reps at shortstop, the Halos would likely view Rosario as multi-positional insurance. The Halos have second-year player Zach Neto penciled in at shortstop. Anthony Rendon, Brandon Drury and Luis Rengifo could split time between second and third base. Rendon hasn’t reached 60 starts at the hot corner in a season since 2019. Rengifo is a fringe defender who underwent season-ending biceps surgery last September. The Halos haven’t replaced Urshela, who served as a righty-hitting versatile infielder before a pelvis fracture last season.

Owner Arte Moreno said this week that he didn’t anticipate matching last year’s spending level. A run at Rosario should nevertheless be well within range financially. The 28-year-old is looking at a one- or two-year contract. Roster Resource calculates the club’s projected payroll around $173MM. They opened last season with approximately $212MM in player commitments.

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