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Padres Option Stephen Kolek, Connor Joe

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The Padres announced that they’ve optioned Stephen Kolek, Ron Marinaccio, Luis Campusano and Connor Joe to Triple-A El Paso. None of those players will start the season on the major league roster.

Kolek’s demotion is most notable, as it essentially finalizes the Opening Day rotation. Kyle Hart and Randy Vásquez will open the year as the respective fourth and fifth starters behind Dylan Cease, Michael King and Nick Pivetta. (Kevin Acee of The San Diego Union-Tribune wrote earlier this evening that the team was leaning in that direction.) There were two spots up for grabs with Yu Darvish beginning the season on the injured list as he battles elbow inflammation.

A 2023 Rule 5 pick, Kolek spent last season in the MLB bullpen. He posted a 5.21 ERA across 46 2/3 innings. While Kolek’s 18.5% strikeout rate was mediocre, he got ground-balls at an excellent 55.9% clip. He showed enough that the Padres built him back up as a starter this spring. Kolek had a good camp, pitching 12 1/3 innings of three-run ball with a 61.5% ground-ball rate.

That evidently wasn’t enough to leapfrog Hart and Vásquez on the depth chart. Hart, a 32-year-old southpaw, signed a $1.5MM free agent deal after spending last season in Korea. His four career major league appearances came with the Red Sox in 2020. Hart has given up eight runs over 7 2/3 Spring Training frames, but his 2.69 ERA in the KBO last year made it likely he’d crack the rotation. That was less clear with Vásquez, who started 20 games with an ERA approaching 5.00 for San Diego a year ago. He has recorded seven strikeouts with one walk over eight innings this spring.

Campusano was ticketed for Triple-A once the Padres tabbed Martín Maldonado to work as the backup catcher behind Elias Díaz. Assuming he spends at least 20 days in the minors, this will be Campusano’s final option year. It’s a make or break season for the former top prospect. Joe signed a $1MM free agent deal to work as the short side of a left field platoon with Jason Heyward. He’s been passed on the depth chart by Brandon Lockridge even though he hit .316/.469/.447 this spring. Lockridge, another righty-hitting outfielder, is a superior runner who’ll provide more athleticism on Mike Shildt’s bench.

Yu Darvish To Begin Season On Injured List

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Right-hander Yu Darvish will begin the season on the injured list. Manager Mike Shildt informed reporters today, including Dennis Lin of The Athletic and AJ Cassavell of MLB.com. The righty was diagnosed with elbow inflammation earlier this week. “We feel pretty comfortable that some rest and getting ramped back up will be the answer,” Shildt says. That doesn’t point to a long absence but it will leave two rotation spots for the trio of Kyle Hart, Stephen Kolek and Randy Vásquez.

Darvish has been dealing with occasional bouts of elbow inflammation for a while now. He finished the 2023 season on the IL due to inflammation in that right elbow. In 2024, he missed time due to various issues. He had some neck tightness, a groin strain, an undisclosed family issue and some more elbow inflammation. He was limited to 81 2/3 innings last year.

Though Shildt downplayed the severity, it’s a somewhat concerning situation. Any injury to a pitcher’s throwing elbow is somewhat alarming. In the case of Darvish, the elbow problems are becoming somewhat frequent and he’s going to turn 39 years old in August.

The San Diego rotation has been an ongoing point of focus. Joe Musgrove required Tommy John surgery in October, blowing a big hole in the 2025 staff. That left them with a front three of Darvish, Dylan Cease and Michael King. They signed Nick Pivetta in the offseason to take a fourth spot.

That left guys like Matt Waldron, Hart, Kolek and Vásquez as contenders for the final rotation spot. But Waldron is on the shelf due to an oblique strain and now Darvish is out. That appears to leave two rotation spots for the Hart/Kolek/Vásquez trio.

Hart has almost no major league experience but dominated in Korea last year. He tossed 157 innings in the KBO with a 2.69 earned run average, 28.8% strikeout rate, 6% walk rate and 46% ground ball rate. That led to a deal with the Padres but he was slowed in camp by the flu. He only made his spring debut on Sunday, tossing three innings.

Kolek just made his big league debut last year, as a Rule 5 pick out of the Mariners organization. He stuck in the San Diego bullpen all year and posted a 5.21 ERA, though with better peripherals. His .359 batting average on balls in play and 64.3% strand rate were both on the unlucky side, so he had a 3.57 FIP and and 3.41 SIERA. He has been getting stretched out in camp and has a 2.19 ERA in 12 1/3 innings.

Vásquez had a 4.87 ERA over 20 starts for the Friars last year. He has only thrown four innings of official Cactus League action, having allowed two earned runs with three strikeouts and one walk. His last official outing was March 2 but he has been throwing on backfields and in sim games.

Poll: Padres’ Rotation Battle

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Shortly after the 2024 regular season concluded, the Padres were hit with a brutal blow when Joe Musgrove underwent Tommy John surgery, wiping out his 2025 campaign before the offseason even began. That left the Padres with major question marks at the back of their rotation behind Dylan Cease, Michael King, and Yu Darvish. While the late-winter addition of Nick Pivetta into the fold helped stabilize things, that still left one spot open in the club’s rotation headed into Spring Training. Darvish is now battling elbow inflammation himself, though the Padres haven’t ruled him out for the beginning of the season.

Knuckleballer Matt Waldron appeared to be the favorite for the final rotation job after he made 26 solid starts for the Padres last year, but he’s out of commission due to an oblique injury and expected to begin the season on the injured list. With Waldron out of the mix for the Opening Day rotation, that leaves left-hander Kyle Hart as well as righties Randy Vasquez and Stephen Kolek in the mix for the club’s fifth starter spot. Hart, 32, was brought into the organization last month on a one-year deal worth $1.5MM guaranteed. The southpaw has just 11 MLB innings under his belt, where he got blown up to the tune of a 15.55 ERA with the Red Sox during the 2020 season. After toiling in the minor leagues for years in an attempt to get back to the majors, Hart tried his hand in the Korea Baseball Organization last year.

The results were extremely impressive. Hart’s first and only year overseas saw him pitch to a sterling 2.69 ERA in 157 innings of work across 26 starts. He struck out an excellent 28.8% of his opponents while maintaining a strong 6.0% walk rate. That dominant work in Korea was somewhat reminiscent of the success right-hander Erick Fedde found in KBO play during the 2023 season, when he pitched to a 2.00 ERA in 180 1/3 innings and struck out 29.5% of his opponents. Hart’s numbers don’t quite match up with those of Fedde, but given Fedde’s excellent 2024 season where he posted a 3.30 ERA in 31 starts for the White Sox and Cardinals, even a significant step back from Fedde’s major league production would still make Hart a solid starting option in the majors.

It might seem reasonable, then, to assume that Hart is the favorite for the job. Things may not be that simple, however, as Kevin Acee of the San Diego Union-Tribune wrote over the weekend that Hart may be falling out of the race for the fifth starter job due to an illness that has limited him to just two appearances this spring. Acee noted that the Padres have been impressed by what they’ve seen from him so far, but much like Waldron, it’s possible that he simply won’t have time to build up enough to be the club’s fifth starter out of the gate this year. That could open the door for Vasquez or Kolek to jump in and take the job despite résumés that pale in comparison to Hart’s platform campaign.

Vasquez, 26, made 20 starts for the Padres last year. The results left something to be desired, as his 4.87 ERA and 4.70 FIP were both well below league average. With that being said, Vasquez improved throughout the 2024 campaign. After surrendering ten homers in his first nine starts last year, he settled into a rhythm in late June and posted a respectable 4.23 ERA with an even better 3.94 FIP in 55 1/3 innings of work over his final 11 starts. While Vasquez’s ceiling isn’t especially high, it’s not hard to imagine him being a perfectly viable fifth starter this year, particularly if his improved ability to keep the ball in the park throughout the second half last year proves to be sustainable.

Kolek, meanwhile, is something of a wild card in the mix. Drafted in the 11th round by the Dodgers back in 2018, the right-hander was traded to the Mariners in 2021 but did not make his big league debut until last year as a Rule 5 pick of the Padres. San Diego used him out of the bullpen, where he posted lackluster numbers despite strong peripherals. Kolek’s fantastic 55.9% ground ball rate and impressive 5.7% walk rate were overshadowed by a strikeout rate of just 18.5%, a massive .359 BABIP, and a lackluster 64.3% strand rate that left him with a 5.21 ERA despite a 3.57 FIP and a 3.41 SIERA.

Still, the right-hander showed enough that he not only stuck with the Padres all season, but club brass also decided to convert him back to a starting job despite him not pitching out of the rotation since 2022 at the Double-A level. His spring results have been impressive to this point, with a 1.00 ERA in 9 innings of work and five strikeouts against just one walk, but Kolek’s pedestrian results last year and lack of a track record as a starter in the majors or even at Triple-A could give San Diego pause about committing to him as a starter to open the season.

If Darvish avoids the injured list, who would you assign to the fifth spot in the Padres rotation to open the season? Would you give the nod to Hart despite his minimal work during Spring Training? Would you stick with the reliable Vasquez despite his relatively low ceiling? Or would you take a chance on a reliever conversion in Kolek? Have your say in the poll below:

Yu Darvish Questionable For Opening Day Due To Elbow Inflammation

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Padres right-hander Yu Darvish has recently been slowed in camp. While it was initially conveyed that he had some general fatigue, manager Mike Shildt today provided a more specific and more ominous diagnosis. The skipper told members of the media, including Kevin Acee of the San Diego Union-Tribune, that the veteran righty experienced elbow inflammation after his last start.

Shildt stopped short of saying Darvish would start the season on the injured list, describing him as day-to-day. Opening Day is just over a week away, so it’s a tight window. Any time a pitcher’s throwing elbow is involved, it’s a cause for some concern. In the case of Darvish, there may be even more concern than with some other hurlers.

Darvish has dealt with some elbow problems in the past. Tommy John surgery wiped out his entire 2015 season. He was largely health for years after that, though he hasn’t logged a huge workload in the past two seasons. He was capped at 24 starts and 136 1/3 innings in 2023. He landed on the IL in late August due to right elbow inflammation and stayed there to finish the year. In 2024, he only made 16 starts and tossed 81 2/3 innings. He missed time due to neck tightness, a groin strain, some more inflammation in that throwing elbow and an undisclosed personal issue.

That makes this the third straight season that Darvish has battled some elbow inflammation. For a pitcher who is now 38 years old, that’s less than ideal. It’s especially worrisome since rotation depth is one of the key issues on the San Diego roster. The Friars already lost Joe Musgrove for the entire season, as he required Tommy John surgery in October.

Losing Musgrove left the Padres with a rotation core of Darvish, Michael King and Dylan Cease. They signed Nick Pivetta to fill one of the back-end spots. Coming into camp, candidates for the final spot including Matt Waldron, Kyle Hart, Randy Vásquez and Stephen Kolek. However, Waldron is out of commission due to an oblique strain. Hart has also been delayed by the flu and is behind the rest of the group in terms of building up. If Darvish needs to miss some time at the start of the season, that would seemingly leave two spots open behind the King/Cease/Pivetta trio.

If it’s just a short-term absence, the overall group could look stronger in a few weeks, with both Waldron and Darvish perhaps back in the mix. A more serious issue would naturally have bigger impacts. Both Cease and King are impending free agents. That means Pivetta and Darvish are the on-paper rotation nucleus for 2026. Musgrove could be back in the mix by then but may have some workload issues after missing all of 2025. Darvish is still under contract through 2028, as part of the extension he signed with the club in 2023.

It’s also possible this could impact the trade market. San Diego has notable budgetary concerns and various parts of the roster they would like to upgrade. That has led to rumors about Cease or King being available, though Cease’s name has come up far more often. It would be a tricky balance for San Diego to strike, as they would have to feel that reducing their rotation depth is worth it for multiple upgrades at left field, first base or designated hitter.

Presumably, Darvish being hurt would reduce the chances of a Cease deal in the short term, as it would be even harder to justify a rotation subtraction. Closer to the deadline, that calculus could change if the Padres don’t manage to compete. As mentioned, both Cease and King are impending free agents and would be natural trade candidates this summer if San Diego slips behind the other National League contenders.

Photo courtesy Mark J. Rebilas of Imagn Images

Padres To Stretch Out Stephen Kolek As Starter

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Padres manager Mike Shildt spoke to the media today and provided some updates on the club’s pitching plans. Per Dennis Lin of The Athletic, Shildt said that right-hander Stephen Kolek will be stretched out as a starter but fellow righty Bryan Hoeing will stay in a relief role this year.

Kolek, 28 in April, worked as a reliever in 2024 but has some starting experience. In the Mariners’ system in 2022, he made 27 Double-A starts and logged 143 2/3 innings, allowing 4.51 earned runs per nine. His 21.7% strikeout rate, 10.4% walk rate and 47% ground ball rate were all close to average marks. In 2023, the Mariners used him largely in a relief role. He tossed 69 1/3 innings across 49 minor league appearances, mostly in Triple-A, with a 3.76 ERA, 26.2% strikeout rate, 11% walk rate and 59% ground ball rate.

The Padres plucked him in the Rule 5 draft just over a year ago and kept him in the bullpen throughout 2024. He spent the final two months of the season on the injured list due to right forearm tendonitis but still managed to log 46 2/3 innings over 42 appearances. His 5.21 ERA doesn’t immediately impress, nor does his 18.5% strikeout rate. However, his 55.9% ground ball rate and 5.7% walk rate were both strong numbers. He had some bad luck in the form of a .359 batting average on balls in play and 64.3% strand rate, which is why his 3.57 FIP and 3.41 SIERA were both significantly better than his ERA. Statcast had his barrel rate in the 96th percentile of qualified pitchers and his average exit velocity in the 71st.

Kolek threw six different pitches in 2024: a sinker, cutter, four-seamer, sweeper, slider and changeup. He held lefties to a .271/.326/.294 batting line. Righties put up a much stronger .327/.373/.500 performance, though with a lot of that aforementioned poor batted ball luck coming in those righty-on-righty matchups, as he had a .386 BABIP in those.

Whether that arsenal can help him turn a major league lineup over a few times is anyone’s guess at this point. The fact that he tamped down damage from lefties is encouraging. If he has a significant turnaround in the BABIP department against righties, perhaps it can work. However, there are no guarantees, especially with Kolek having not started for two years now.

The fact that the Padres are considering such a move is a reflection of their financial situation. Bullpen-to-rotation conversions are popular these days but they usually involve guys with lengthy track records of major league success as relievers, such as Seth Lugo, or former top prospects like Garrett Crochet. Kolek, on the other hand, is a Rule 5 guy who had a 5.21 ERA in his MLB debut and was on the IL for the final two months of the year.

But there are some interesting numbers under the hood, as mentioned, and the Padres need to find cheap solutions. The payroll has clearly been tight going back to last offseason, which is what led to the Juan Soto trade. This winter, trade rumors have circled around guys like Dylan Cease, Michael King, Luis Arráez and Robert Suarez.

Trading Cease or King would further deplete a rotation that is already a big question mark. Those two and Yu Darvish give the club a solid front three but there’s little certainty beyond that. Joe Musgrove underwent Tommy John surgery in October and will likely miss the entire 2025 season.

There are some options for the back end on the roster, though there are question marks with those. Matt Waldron had a 3.71 ERA in the first half last year but 8.10 in the second half. Randy Vásquez had a 4.87 ERA last year but worked around a 14.4% strikeout rate. Jhony Brito was similar, with a 4.12 ERA and 15.7% strikeout rate, pitching only in relief. Juan Nunez, Omar Cruz and Ryan Bergert have yet to make their major league debuts.

With no real budget to work with and concerning rotation depth, the Padres might have to get creative, especially if they eventually trade Cease or King. There’s little harm in stretching a guy out in spring, as it’s generally considered easier to then move to a bullpen role later, as opposed to the other way around. He can also now be optioned, with the Rule 5 restrictions no longer in place, so getting some Triple-A work is possible.

It was reported in December that the club was considering Kolek, Hoeing and Adrián Morejón for rotation moves, though reporting from earlier this month took Morejón off the table. It now seems that Hoeing will also stick in a relief role going forward. Acquired from the Marlins alongside Tanner Scott at the deadline, Hoeing has a 4.80 ERA in 137 big league innings over the past three seasons. That includes a 2.18 ERA last year, between Miami and San Diego. He has fairly neutral splits and has thrown six different pitches in his career, providing some logic for considering the rotation move, but it seems he’ll stick in the bullpen.

Padres Have Considered Luis Arráez Trade

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The Padres seem to have a budget crunch and are considering all kinds of options for how to stop feeling the squeeze. It was reported this week that they have been exploring the possibility of trading right-hander Dylan Cease and now Kevin Acee of the San Diego Union-Tribune reports that they have discussed trading infielder Luis Arráez. Jon Heyman of The New York Post reports that they have received inquires on Cease, Arráez and Xander Bogaerts as well.

It was reported this week that the club was probably going to have to drop its payroll commitments. They had a $169MM payroll in 2024 but RosterResource currently projects them to be at $210MM next year. It’s not known exactly where they need to wind up, but it should be somewhere in between those two numbers. Acee’s report from today suggests that Preller can be above $169MM but not by much. Trading prospects doesn’t seem to be a strong consideration since the club has done a lot of that in recent years. The farm is still highlighted by Leodalis De Vries and Ethan Salas but all reports have suggested those two are fairly untouchable.

That’s a tricky situation since the Friars need to upgrade at catcher, in an outfield corner and in the rotation. Doing so while also cutting spending is a difficult tightrope to walk. It’s a similar situation to last winter, when the Padres also had to scale back the budget but had notable concerns about the pitching depth and outfield.

President of baseball operations A.J. Preller somehow made it work by trading Juan Soto to the Yankees for a pile of pitchers, including Michael King and Drew Thorpe, with the latter then used to acquire Cease. They also moved shortstop prospect Jackson Merrill to center field, skipping him over Triple-A, and struck gold by signing Jurickson Profar for just $1MM. They ended up having a good season and getting back into the playoffs but now face another tough balancing act.

Bogaerts, Manny Machado, Fernando Tatis Jr., Joe Musgrove and Yu Darvish are all making big money but those contracts are hard to move, both because the players are key parts of the roster and each has a full no-trade clause. Cease and Arráez, however, have no such protection and both are controlled for just one more season via arbitration. MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projects Arráez for a salary of $14.6MM next year and Cease for $13.7MM.

That amount of money is perhaps a sweet spot. The players should have surplus value, meaning they would generate interest from other clubs, but the numbers are also big enough where a trade would reduce San Diego’s payroll by a notable amount.

It will be a delicate line for Preller to walk, especially with Cease. The rotation is already thin as it is, with Musgrove slated to miss most or all of 2025 recovering from Tommy John surgery. There’s a strong front three of Cease, King and Darvish but question marks after that. Moving Cease could save some money and bring back a return of some kind, but it would make the rotation depth even thinner. Getting Roki Sasaki would be ideal since he’s very good and will be limited to a small signing bonus, but there’s no guarantees there and it will be another month before there’s clarity on the situation.

One thing that could help is converting a reliever to a full-time starting role, as they did with King last year and Seth Lugo before. AJ Cassavell of MLB.com relays that Preller has identified Adrián Morejón, Bryan Hoeing and Stephen Kolek as candidates for such a move.

MLBTR looked into the possibility of stretching out Morejón in October, though MLBTR readers were fairly split on the idea, with a slight majority favoring him staying in the bullpen. The argument for stretching him out is that he was once a highly-regarded starting pitching prospect before getting derailed by injuries. In 2024, he was healthy enough to avoid the IL all year, tossing 63 2/3 innings out of the bullpen with a 2.83 ERA, 26.1% strikeout rate, 7.7% walk rate and 51.4% ground ball rate. The Padres could just keep him in that role since it worked for him but they could also view that healthy season as a springboard to a larger workload in 2025.

Neither Hoeing nor Kolek had the same prospect pedigree as Morejón but both have largely worked in relief after coming up as starters in the minors. Hoeing tossed 53 2/3 innings in 2024 with a 2.18 ERA, 20.5% strikeout rate, 6.7% walk rate and 48.3% ground ball rate. Kolek tossed 46 2/3 innings with a 5.21 ERA, 18.5% strikeout rate, 5.7% walk rate and 55.9% ground ball rate.

Any of the three would be far cheaper than Cease. Hoeing and Kolek are still in their pre-arbitration years. Morejón’s injuries have limited him to modest $1.8MM projection for next year even though he has more than four years of service time. That price point is attractive but there’s obviously big risk in flipping an established starter like Cease and hoping for these guys to slot in for him.

With Arráez, it’s a bit easier to see the logic. Without him, the club could have an infield of Machado, Bogaerts and Jake Cronenworth from left to right. Finding a passable first baseman for less than what Arráez is slated to make is more plausible than replacing Cease with a pitcher of similar quality. They could flip Arráez for whatever clubs are willing to offer in return, then theoretically sign someone like Donovan Solano, Carlos Santana or Justin Turner for less money.

But on the other hand, the teams interested in Arráez could also look to those options as reasons to not give up much in trade. Despite winning three straight batting titles, Arráez is a fairly limited player since he’s not a strong defender, doesn’t walk much and doesn’t provide power. He’s certainly useful but Acee suggests Cease is more likely to move because the prices on starting pitching have been aggressive this winter, meaning he would have more interest than Arráez despite having essentially the same projected salary.

The Bogaerts possibility in interesting but the least likely of the three to come together. As mentioned, he has a full no-trade clause and would have to approve any deal. He’s also set to make $25MM annually for another nine years, leaving $225MM left on his deal. Heyman suggests that the strong spending this winter makes the deal look more attractive than before, but that’s still an underwater deal.

Bogaerts is three years older than Willy Adames, who just got a guarantee of $182MM from the Giants. He’s also coming off a down year in which he missed time due to injury and slashed .264/.307/.381 for a 95 wRC+. His shortstop defense has also been questionable enough that the Padres moved him to second base in deference to Ha-Seong Kim, though he did retake the position late in the year when Kim was hurt. Even if the Padres found a taker for Bogaerts, it would create a shortstop vacancy and add another item to the to-do list. Re-signing Kim is theoretically possible but he’s still recovering from shoulder surgery and might not be a factor in the first half of the season. The free agent market doesn’t have any more clear-cut everyday options.

Speculatively speaking, it’s a bit easier to see this kind of thing with Cronenworth, who had been in trade rumors in the past. Going into 2023, he and the Padres agreed to a seven-year, $80MM extension for the 2024-30 seasons. He then had a down year in 2023 and the Friars looked into moving him during last winter’s budget crunch but didn’t get anything done. He bounced back with a .241/.324/.390 showing in 2024 for a 105 wRC+, much better than his .229/.312/.378 line and 91 wRC+ in 2023.

He is still owed $71MM over the next six years but that’s less than a third of the money left on the Bogaerts deal. Cronenworth is also a bit younger, turning 31 in January. Trading him would open a hole at second base for the Friars, unless they are willing to play Arráez there, but free agency features Gleyber Torres, Jose Iglesias, Jorge Polanco and other possible replacements.

There are many factors for Preller to balance as he puts together next year’s club, but it’s at least a position he’s familiar with. Naturally, how he proceeds will depend on what other clubs are offering for Cease or Arráez or other players, but it will interesting to see him juggle all the different elements.

Rule 5 Draft Update: September Edition

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A few months ago, MLBTR’s Steve Adams took an early look at the progress of last winter’s Rule 5 draftees. Seven of those players were on their teams’ active rosters, while two more were rehabbing injuries. Only one 2023 Rule 5 pick was returned to his original organization before Opening Day — and he went on to be the headlining piece in a key deadline trade. With most of the season in the books, let’s take a look at their performances in a larger sample.

A quick refresh for those unfamiliar with the process: the Rule 5 draft is a means of getting MLB opportunities to players who might be blocked with their current organization. Teams can draft certain players who are left off their original club’s 40-man roster. The drafting team needs to keep that player on the MLB roster or injured list for their entire first season. If they do so, they’d gain the player’s contractual rights permanently.

If the drafting team decides not to carry the player on the roster at any point during his rookie year, they need to place him on waivers. If he goes unclaimed, the player is offered back to his original organization — which does not need to carry him on either the MLB or 40-man rosters to take him back. A team can keep an injured Rule 5 pick on the major league IL, but they’d eventually need to carry him on the active roster for 90 days. If the player misses the entire season, the Rule 5 restriction carries over to the following year.

We’re down to the final two weeks of the regular season, so it’s safe to presume the six players who have held an active roster spot will survive the year. One player has spent the entire season on the injured list, so his Rule 5 status will roll over into next season if he sticks on the 40-man over the winter. Two others were returned earlier in the summer.

On a Major League Roster

Mitch Spence, RHP, Athletics (selected from Yankees)

The A’s had MLB’s worst record in 2023. That gave them the first pick in the Rule 5 draft. They used it on Spence, who had turned in a 4.47 ERA across 163 Triple-A innings in the Yankees’ system. New York’s 10th-round pick in 2019 has been a solid contributor on a more competitive Oakland pitching staff.

Spence opened the year in the bullpen. He worked 25 1/3 innings over his first 11 appearances, pitching to a 4.26 earned run average behind a decent 22.2% strikeout rate and huge ground-ball numbers (54.4%). The A’s moved Spence into their rotation in the middle of May. He has been similarly effective as a starter. Spence has worked to a 4.34 ERA over 21 starts, which is tied for the second-most on the team. His strikeout and grounder rates have each dropped a few points, but he’s still getting worm burners at a solid 48.5% clip. Spence doesn’t issue many free passes and has looked the part of a durable fourth/fifth starter. That’d be a fantastic outcome for a Rule 5 pick. He should at least get to compete for a season-opening rotation job next spring.

Anthony Molina, RHP, Rockies (selected from Rays)

Molina, 22, has stuck with a rebuilding Colorado team despite a rough debut season. He’s allowing more than six earned runs per nine through 56 innings out of the bullpen. The Venezuelan-born righty has fanned 15% of opposing hitters with a meager 7.2% swinging strike percentage. While pitching in Coors Field should be a challenge for any rookie, Molina has actually fared much worse away from altitude. He carries a 3.13 ERA in 31 2/3 home innings against a ghastly 11.10 mark over 24 1/3 frames on the road. Molina’s strikeout and walk profile isn’t good no matter where he has pitched, but he’s done a much better job keeping the ball on the ground in Denver.

Tough results aside, the Rox don’t have a pressing need to push Molina off the roster. Their place in the standings and overall lack of bullpen talent affords them rope to continue giving him a chance to develop. He throws reasonably hard (94.7 MPH average fastball speed) and managed decent results as a starting pitcher in the upper minors last year.

Nasim Nuñez, SS, Nationals (selected from Marlins)

A glove-first middle infielder, Nuñez has been the 26th man in Washington all season. Manager Dave Martinez has used him primarily as a late-game substitute. Nuñez has made 13 starts at shortstop and 41 appearances overall. He has 10 hits (nine singles and a double) in 51 plate appearances with eight walks and ten strikeouts. Nuñez has stolen six bases and laid down four sacrifice bunts. There’s minimal offensive upside but he has probably done enough to stick on the 40-man roster as a depth infielder.

Ryan Fernandez, RHP, Cardinals (selected from Red Sox)

Fernandez has had one of the better debut campaign in this year’s class. The 26-year-old righty carries a 3.13 ERA over 63 1/3 innings out of the St. Louis bullpen. Fernandez is narrowly behind Andrew Kittredge for the team lead in relief innings. He has quickly pitched his way into Oli Marmol’s circle of trust. Fernandez is fourth on the team — behind closer Ryan Helsley, Kittredge, and JoJo Romero — in average leverage index (measuring how impactful the situation is when a pitcher enters the game) in the second half.

It hasn’t been completely smooth sailing. Fernandez’s command has come and gone, and he had an atrocious August. He’s capable of missing bats and handling hitters from both sides of the plate, though, and he has posted a nice rebound this month. Even if his command could push him into a sixth or seventh inning role, this was a good pick.

Justin Slaten, RHP, Red Sox (selected from Rangers via trade with Mets)

Losing Fernandez might’ve stung the Red Sox more had they not found a reliever who has been even better. Slaten owns a 3.16 earned run average through 51 1/3 innings with the peripherals to match. The New Mexico product has fanned more than a quarter of batters faced against a tidy 4.4% walk rate. He’s getting swinging strikes at a massive 14.4% clip while leading opponents to chase more than 35% of pitches outside the strike zone.

Aside from a six-week injured list stint because of elbow inflammation, Slaten couldn’t have made a much better first impression. He already looks the part of a late-game weapon and has been used as such by Alex Cora. With Kenley Jansen headed to free agency, Slaten could battle Liam Hendriks for the closer role next season. The Sox had one of the best Rule 5 picks in recent history when they snagged Garrett Whitlock a few years ago. It’s a new front office, but they look like they’ve had a similarly valuable hit on Slaten.

Currently On Major League Injured List

Stephen Kolek, RHP, Padres (selected from Mariners)

Kolek has occupied a low-leverage relief role for San Diego skipper Mike Shildt. The 27-year-old righty has allowed a 5.21 ERA across 46 2/3 innings. He’s getting ground-balls at a massive 55.9% clip but has a well below-average 18.5% strikeout rate. Kolek has done a nice job staying off barrels but hasn’t shown the bat-missing ability to push his way up the bullpen depth chart.

The Padres placed Kolek on the injured list just after the deadline due to elbow tendinitis. They moved him to the 60-day IL at the start of September. He’s eligible to return for San Diego’s playoff run, but his season could be over. Kolek surpassed 90 days on the active roster before the injury, so he won’t be subject to any restrictions next year.

Carson Coleman, RHP, Rangers (selected from Yankees)

Coleman underwent Tommy John surgery while he was a member of the Yankees system early in 2023. Texas had hoped he’d return in the middle of the season, but GM Chris Young announced in May that wouldn’t happen. He has spent the whole season on the 60-day IL. Texas would need to put Coleman back on the 40-man roster at the start of the offseason. If they carry him all winter, he’ll need to spend at least 90 days on the active roster whenever he’s healthy.

Returned to Original Organization

Matt Sauer, RHP, Royals (returned to Yankees)

Yankees minor leaguers went first and second in the draft. While Spence stuck around, the No. 2 pick didn’t last long in Kansas City. Sauer made the Opening Day roster and pitched 14 times in low-leverage relief. Opponents tagged him for 14 runs on 23 hits and 11 walks over 16 1/3 innings. The Royals couldn’t afford to stash him as a development flier in the bullpen, particularly once it became clear they had a real chance to make the playoffs.

Kansas City returned Sauer to the Yankees in late May. New York initially assigned him to Triple-A, but he was blitzed for 15 runs over just 8 1/3 innings in 10 appearances. New York demoted him to Double-A Somerset in early July. Sauer has found his footing there, pitching to a 2.63 ERA with 21 strikeouts and three walks over 17 outings. He’d qualify for minor league free agency this offseason if the Yanks don’t put him on the 40-man roster.

Shane Drohan, LHP, White Sox (returned to Red Sox)

Drohan never pitched in the majors with the White Sox. The southpaw underwent a nerve decompression surgery in his throwing shoulder in February. He began the season on the 60-day injured list. Drohan was hit hard in a limited sample after beginning a rehab assignment, so Chicago decided not to activate him to the MLB roster. They returned him to Boston in June. Drohan made two Triple-A starts, spent some time on the development list, and is now back on the IL with continued shoulder issues. It’s unfortunate that he wasn’t healthy enough to get a legitimate MLB opportunity, but Drohan at least collected major league pay and service time for a couple months while on Chicago’s injured list.

Deyvison De Los Santos, 1B/3B, Guardians (returned to Diamondbacks)

De Los Santos was a surprising pick, as the power-hitting infielder was coming off a mediocre season (.254/.297/.431) in Double-A. He didn’t hit at all in Spring Training and Cleveland returned him to the Diamondbacks before Opening Day. He had a monster first half for the Snakes, blasting 28 home runs in fewer than 400 plate appearances between the top two minor league levels. Within a few months, De Los Santos went from unsuccessful Rule 5 pick to the centerpiece of the Marlins’ trade package for controllable high-leverage reliever A.J. Puk.

He has cooled off substantially since the deal. De Los Santos has another 11 homers in 44 games with Miami’s Triple-A affiliate, but he’s striking out a lot and getting on base at a meager .283 clip. It’s a difficult profile to pull off — particularly since he’s not considered a strong defender who might end up at first base — but the Marlins are likely to put him on the 40-man roster rather than expose him to the Rule 5 for a second straight year.

Padres Designate Lake Bachar For Assignment, Select Brandon Lockridge

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The Padres announced this morning that they have designated right-hander Lake Bachar for assignment. Bachar’s removal from the 40-man roster makes room for the selection of catcher Elias Diaz to the roster, a move that was first reported yesterday. Additionally, San Diego announced that they’ve selected the contract of outfielder Brandon Lockridge and optioned him to Triple-A. Making room for Lockridge on the 40-man roster is right-hander Stephen Kolek, who has been transferred to the 60-day injured list.

Bachar, 29, was the club’s fifth-round pick back in 2016 and has spent his entire career in the Padres organization. The righty was selected to the club’s 40-man roster a month ago after he triggered an August 1 opt-out clause in his contract with the club and briefly made it to the major league roster last week, but was optioned back to the minors without making his big league debut. The right-hander has a solid 3.89 ERA in 71 2/3 innings of work this year at the Triple-A level and, in the event that he clears waivers, could be a non-roster depth option for the Padres down the stretch if necessary.

Meanwhile, another player who has yet to make his big league debut is joining the club’s 40-man roster in the form of Lockridge. The 27-year-old was a fifth-round pick by the Yankees in the 2018 draft and was acquired by the Padres in the Enyel De Los Santos trade ahead of the deadline back in July. Lockridge’s numbers have been solid but unspectacular at the Triple-A level, as he’s slashed .294/.405/.384 with a wRC+ around 15% better than league average between his time with the Yankees’ and Padres’ affiliates this year.

While Lockridge doesn’t hit for much power with just two home runs so far this year, he flashed impressive discipline at the plate as evidenced by a massive 14.9% walk rate that compares quite favorably to his 23.2% strikeout rate. The outfielder is also an impressive baserunner, as he’s gone 44 for 50 on the basepaths this year after posting 40 steals in 45 attempts last season. That combination of strong plate discipline and blazing speed could make Lockridge an interesting contender for a bench role with the Padres at some point, though for now he’s been optioned back down to Triple-A.

As for Kolek, the right-hander was placed on the IL a month ago due to forearm tendonitis, and his transfer to the 60-day IL will end his regular season. The right-handed rookie posted a lackluster 5.21 ERA in 46 2/3 innings of work with San Diego this year, though his 3.58 FIP and 3.43 SIERA both offer some optimism about the 27-year-old’s ability to post better numbers in the future as he looks ahead to the 2025 campaign.

Padres Designate Austin Davis For Assignment

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The Padres have activated left-handers Martín Pérez and Tanner Scott, as well as right-hander Bryan Hoeing, the pitchers they acquired prior to yesterday’s trade deadline. In order to open roster spots for those three, they placed right-hander Stephen Kolek on the 15-day injured list with right forearm tendonitis, optioned righty Logan Gillaspie to Triple-A El Paso and designated lefty Austin Davis for assignment.

Davis is out of options, so a DFA was the only manner of pulling him from the MLB bullpen. The 31-year-old southpaw made seven low-leverage appearances over the past month. He allowed eight runs (seven earned) across seven innings, walking five with six strikeouts.

That was the first MLB work in two years for Davis, who combined for 56 frames of 5.79 ERA ball between the Red Sox and Twins in 2022. While his recent body of work against big league hitters hasn’t been especially impressive, he had a nice showing for El Paso early this year. Over 29 innings in the Pacific Coast League, he turned in a 3.10 earned run average. Davis fanned nearly 30% of batters faced in Triple-A, albeit with an elevated 12.9% walk rate.

With the trade deadline in the rearview mirror, San Diego’s only option is to put Davis on waivers (though it’s unlikely they’d have found a trade partner regardless). He has a previous career outright that gives him the ability to decline an assignment back to Triple-A, so he’ll likely become a free agent assuming he clears waivers.

2023 Rule 5 Update: April Edition

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We’re three weeks into the 2024 season, and this year’s crop of Rule 5 picks has had an atypical amount of staying power. That’s perhaps in part due to the fact that only ten players were selected in the 2023 Rule 5 Draft, but as of this writing, only one Rule 5 selection has been returned to his original organization.

For those unfamiliar, in order to be eligible for the Rule 5 Draft, a player must not be on his team’s 40-man roster and must have played in either parts of five professional seasons (if they signed at 18 or younger) or four professional seasons (if they signed at 19 or older). The deadline to protect players from the Rule 5 by selecting their contracts to the 40-man roster typically falls in mid-November and spurs a good deal of player movement as teams jettison borderline players and non-tender candidates from their roster in order to protect younger prospects.

A player who is selected in the Rule 5 Draft must spend the entire subsequent season on his new club’s Major League roster and cannot be optioned to the minors. The player can technically spend time on the injured list as well, but at least 90 days must be spent on the active roster. If not, the player’s Rule 5 status rolls into the following season until 90 days on the active roster have been accrued. If a team at any point decides it can no longer carry a Rule 5 selection, that player must be passed through waivers and subsequently offered back to his original organization. Any other club can claim the player via waivers, but the same Rule 5 restrictions will apply to the claiming team.

Broadly speaking, the Rule 5 Draft rarely produces impact players. There are plenty of exceptions over the years, though, with names like Johan Santana, Dan Uggla, Shane Victorino, Joakim Soria, Josh Hamilton and, more recently, Garrett Whitlock and Trevor Stephan thriving in new organizations. The Rule 5 Draft dates back more than a century and has even produced a handful of Hall of Famers: Roberto Clemente, Hack Wilson and Christy Mathewson.

It’s unlikely we’ll see any Cooperstown-bound players come from this year’s crop, but the teams who opted to select a player will be content if any of these names become a viable reliever or role player for the next several seasons. Here’s a look at this year’s group of ten Rule 5 players and where they stand. We’ll do a few of these throughout the season, keeping tabs on which players survive the season and formally have their long-term rights transferred to their new clubs.

On a Major League Roster

Mitch Spence, RHP, Athletics (selected from Yankees)

Spence, 26 next month, was the first overall pick in this year’s Rule 5 Draft, and understandably so after the 2023 season he had. His 4.47 ERA might’ve been pedestrian, but the 2019 tenth-rounder led all Triple-A pitchers with 163 innings while delivering a nice blend of strikeouts (21.8%), walks (7.5%) and ground-balls (50%). For an A’s club desperately thin on starting pitching after the slew of rebuilding-driven trades for minor league arms have failed to produce much, adding a 25-year-old arm with that type of season held obvious appeal.

Spence made Oakland’s decision easy with a monster spring showing. He pitched 17 2/3 innings and allowed only six earned runs (3.06 ERA) on 15 hits and six walks with 21 punchouts. He’s worked out of the ’pen so far in Oakland but could very well find himself making starts later in the year. Through his first 11 2/3 MLB frames, Spence has yielded four earned runs on 10 hits and four walks with a 48.4% grounder rate. He’s not in danger of losing his spot anytime soon.

Matt Sauer, RHP, Royals (selected from Yankees)

Another 25-year-old righty out of the Yankees organization, Sauer came to his new club with a much heavier draft pedigree than his now-former teammate, Spence. The Yankees selected the 6’4″ righty with the No. 54 overall pick back in 2017, but Sauer didn’t develop as quickly as hoped. He was set back by 2019 Tommy John surgery and the canceled 2020 minor league season. He’s never topped 111 innings in a season, but Sauer rebuilt some prospect pedigree with a nice 2023 season that saw him pitch 68 1/3 innings of 3.42 ERA ball in Double-A. He whiffed 29.5% of his opponents, albeit against a less palatable 10.3% walk rate.

Like his former teammate, Sauer had a nice spring that made the decision relatively easy for his new club. In 10 2/3 innings, he held opponents to three earned runs (2.53 ERA) on 13 hits and three walks with 13 strikeouts. He opened the season in the Kansas City bullpen and has thus far pitched five innings, allowing a pair of runs in that time. Sauer has walked four of his 25 opponents and fanned just two thus far. It’s a small sample, of course, but he’ll need to reverse that early trend to hang onto his roster spot — especially if the Royals continue their hot start and find themselves contending into the summer.

Anthony Molina, RHP, Rockies (selected from Rays)

The 22-year-old Molina worked as a starter in the Rays’ system last year, taking the ball 28 times (27 starts) and pitching 122 innings with a 4.50 ERA. The undersized righty has garnered praise for a solid-average heater and above-average changeup, and he showed good command in 2023 after struggling with walks earlier in his minor league career. Molina continued to show good command in spring training (in addition to a massive 60.5% grounder rate), but the regular season has been brutal for him thus far. In three appearances, he’s been tattooed for a dozen runs on 13 hits and four walks with just two strikeouts. The Rockies can afford to be as patient as they want. They’re 4-13 on the season and were never expected to contend. Still, Molina will need to improve on his early performance in order to stick on the roster.

Nasim Nunez, INF, Nationals (selected from Marlins)

The Nationals have effectively played the season thus far with a 25-man roster. Nunez made the Opening Day squad but has been M.I.A. since. He’s appeared in just five of Washington’s 16 games and received only two plate appearances, going hitless in that meaningless sample. Nunez is an all-glove and speed prospect who hit just .224/.341/.286 in Double-A last season. He did go 52-for-59 in stolen base attempts, and scouting reports have long touted his defensive excellence at shortstop. He hit just .152/.200/.182 in 35 spring plate appearances.

It’s fair to wonder how long the Nats can essentially punt a roster spot by keeping Nunez on the bench, but like the Rockies, they’re not expecting to contend this season anyhow. One would imagine that from a pure developmental standpoint, they need to find a way to get Nunez into some games and start getting him some playing time, but for now, the team appears content to just hide the 23-year-old on the bench.

Ryan Fernandez, RHP, Cardinals (selected from Red Sox)

Fernandez, 25, has just four appearances out of the St. Louis bullpen so far and has been understandably deployed in low-leverage spots while he acclimates to the majors. He’s pitched fairly well in sparse duty, holding opponents to three runs (two earned) in 5 2/3 innings. Fernandez has averaged just under 96 mph on his heater, fanned seven opponents and issued three walks. His swinging-strike rate isn’t close to where it’s been in his minor league work, but his wipeout slider has been strong thus far. Fernandez has finished off eight plate appearances with that pitch, picking up four strikeouts and yielding only one hit. Nothing he’s done so far makes it seem like he’ll be cut loose anytime soon.

Justin Slaten, RHP, Red Sox (selected by Mets from Rangers; traded to Red Sox for LHP Ryan Ammons)

While most Rule 5 relievers are eased into low-pressure spots, that hasn’t been the case with the Sox and Slaten. He held a four-run lead to pick up a seven-out save in the team’s fourth game of the season, and the 6’4″ righty has since tallied three holds out of Alex Cora’s bullpen. In 10 1/3 innings, Slaten has allowed only one run on three hits and a walk with eight strikeouts. Add in 6 1/3 shutout innings in spring training, and he’s looked more like a seasoned veteran than a 26-year-old who entered the season with all of 8 1/3 innings above the Double-A level. Slaten has immediately made himself an important part of Boston’s roster, and while a prolonged slump could always change things, he looks like a keeper right now.

Stephen Kolek, RHP, Padres (selected from Mariners)

Kolek, who’ll turn 27 tomorrow, began his big league tenure with four runs in 1 2/3 innings over his first two appearances. He’s since bounced back with 8 2/3 innings of one-run ball, fanning 11 hitters against three walks along the way. He punched out nearly a quarter of his opponents in Triple-A last year and did so with a huge 57.5% ground-ball rate. He hasn’t picked up grounders at such a strong level just yet (43.5%), but San Diego probably isn’t second-guessing their decision to select him. He’s already picked up a pair of holds, and his recent run of success has dropped his ERA to 4.35. Command has been a problem for Kolek in the past, but he’s only walked 8.9% of his opponents against a 26.7% strikeout rate so far.

On the Major League Injured List

Shane Drohan, LHP, White Sox (selected from Red Sox): Drohan underwent shoulder surgery in late February and is on the 60-day IL. There’s no telling yet when he’ll be medically cleared to return. As noted in the intro, Drohan needs 90 days on the active roster to shed his Rule 5 designation; even if he spends the entire 2024 campaign on the injured list, his Rule 5 status will carry over into 2025 until he picks up those 90 active days.

Carson Coleman, RHP, Rangers (selected from Yankees): Coleman is also on the 60-day injured list. Unlike Drohan, it was well known at the time of his selection that he’d be IL-bound to begin the year. Coleman had Tommy John surgery last year and is expected to be out until midsummer at the least.

Returned to Original Organization

Deyvison De Los Santos, INF, Guardians (returned to D-backs): De Los Santos has big raw power but a well below-average hit tool. The Guardians selected him on the heels of a 20-homer campaign in Double-A with the D-backs, but he hit just .227/.227/.318 in 44 spring appearances before being designated for assignment, clearing waivers and getting returned to the Snakes. He’s had a big performance in a return-trip to Double-A.

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