Trade Notes: Hamels, Pitching, Mets, Johnson, Beede
Two weeks from this writing, the non-waiver trade deadline will be firmly in the rear-view mirror. Rumors pertaining to trades and actual trade activity should pick up substantially here over the coming 14 days, and Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports previews the deadline for all 30 clubs, examining each buyer’s biggest need, each seller’s greatest asset and what will determine the course of the teams that have yet to plot a course of action. Similarly, ESPN’s Buster Olney took a look at the biggest questions surrounding each of the 30 teams heading into the second half — many of which have revolve around trade deadline strategies (ESPN Insider subscription required).
General overviews aside, here’s the latest trade chatter from around the league…
- Joel Sherman of the New York Post is surprised by the number of executives he’s spoken to that feel the Phillies will not trade Cole Hamels this summer, barring a no-brainer offer (Twitter links). Sherman says that many within the industry feel that new Phillies president Andy MacPhail may wait until the Winter Meetings to shop Hamels, as he’ll by then be more comfortable with the scouts that are giving him advice and have input from a more functional analytics department.
- Newsday’s Marc Carig writes that while names like Justin Upton, Carlos Gomez and Jay Bruce would all have appeal to the Mets, each would also come with a steep prospect price. Such transactions aren’t commonplace for the Mets, Carig notes, but the addition of a versatile outfielder such as Will Venable or Gerardo Parra could help improve the club’s production at a lower cost. And, as ESPN’s Buster Olney notes (on Twitter), the Mets should be highly motivated to add pieces, as 17 of the team’s final 39 games come against a pair of selling clubs: the Phillies and Braves.
- Sherman also hears that the Dodgers, Astros, Royals and Blue Jays are the four teams that are most aggressively trying to add pitching at this juncture (Twitter link). The Royals and Blue Jays scouted the Reds, who are said to be ready to move both Johnny Cueto and Mike Leake, heavily before the break.
- Part of the reasoning behind the Braves‘ signings of right-hander Jason Frasor and left-hander Ross Detwiler is that the team wanted to add some veteran leadership to a bullpen that will likely soon be without Jim Johnson, tweets MLB.com’s Mark Bowman. Johnson, in Bowman’s estimation, is very likely to be traded in the near future.
- Giants prospect Tyler Beede‘s name is in high demand in trade talks, manager Bruce Bochy tells Peter Gammons (Twitter link). Per Bochy, Beede’s name is the first one mentioned by opposing clubs in the majority of the Giants’ trade talks. San Francisco selected Beede with the No. 14 pick in the 2014 draft, and he has a 2.91 ERA with 6.0 K/9 and 2.4 BB/9 in 89 2/3 innings between High-A and Double-A in his first full pro season.
Brewers To Sign Comp Pick Nathan Kirby
The Brewers have signed left-hander Nathan Kirby, reports ESPN’s Keith Law (via Twitter). Kirby, who was selected with the 40th pick in this year’s draft, will receive a signing bonus of $1.25MM, according to Jon Heyman of CBS Sports (also on Twitter). That figure comes in a ways below his slot value of $1.548MM. According to a second tweet from Heyman, Kirby at one point had an above-slot offer from Milwaukee, but a new medical concern caused the team to drop its offer.
Kirby was once looked as a potential top five pick but slipped down draft rankings rapidly due to a lat strain. The final edition of draft rankings from Law, Baseball America, MLB.com and Fangraphs placed Kirby 20th, 26th, 26th and 29th, respectively.
Law felt that Kirby represented a value pick in the late first round or Competitive Balance round, which is where Milwaukee selected him. Per Law, he has the upside of a mid-rotation starter if everything comes together, and Baseball America agrees. BA has his fastball in the low 90s, noting that he touched 94 frequently and made significant strides with a changeup this season. BA notes that he battled command in 2015, but some scouts think his issues are correctable, and he could move quickly to the Majors. Jim Callis and Jonathan Mayo at MLB.com note that his command may have suffered in 2015 from throwing too many sliders, though they also call the slider is a plus pitch for Kirby.
Heyman’s Latest: Dodgers/Hamels, Braves, Frazier, Price, Brewers, Upton
Jon Heyman of CBS Sports kicks off his weekly Inside Baseball column by reporting that the Dodgers have “quietly continued having dialogue with the Phillies” regarding Cole Hamels. The Dodgers are also giving serious consideration to the rental market and prioritizing Johnny Cueto over others among such targets. The Dodgers “appear determined” to land a top-of-the-rotation arm to pair with Clayton Kershaw and Zack Greinke, writes Heyman, but most executives think they’ll hold onto top prospects Corey Seager and Julio Urias. The Dodgers have a deep farm system beyond that pairing (righty Jose De Leon has recently been ranked a Top 25 prospect by Baseball America and ESPN), and one exec tells Heyman that the Phillies’ asking price on Hamels has become “more reasonable” recently. The Dodgers feel that Greinke is a lock to opt out of his contract at the end of the season, and while they could possibly re-sign him by adding a year or two to the deal and upping his $24.5MM AAV, Hamels would provide insurance should Greinke sign elsewhere. Jeff Samardzija is also a consideration for the Dodgers, but while they like him, they consider him more of a No. 2/3 starter and don’t love him.
Some more highlights from Heyman’s article, though the synopsis won’t cover everything within the piece, so I’d highly recommend reading it in its entirety…
- The Braves will be deadline sellers, Heyman hears, with Jim Johnson, Juan Uribe and Cameron Maybin among the players that will be available to interested teams. Chris Johnson, too, continues to be available, but there are no takers for his contract, which Atlanta has aggressively tried to move in the past.
- With the Reds expected to trade so many veterans to other clubs, many in the industry expect the team to make a run at extending Todd Frazier beyond his current two-year deal, Heyman writes. (Frazier has one more year of arbitration following his current pact.) Jeff Todd and I have discussed Frazier’s situation on the MLBTR Podcast in the past (and will do so again this afternoon), and I’ve personally taken the stance that given the significant commitments to Joey Votto and Homer Bailey, the Reds could have a difficult time affording Frazier, whose 2014-15 breakout has hugely inflated his price tag. Given the lack of impact bats on the trade market, Frazier would net a king’s ransom and could rapidly expedite the rebuilding process, though the PR hit of trading him with so much control and on the heels of a Home Run Derby victory would of course be significant.
- In other Reds news, Heyman hears Mike Leake‘s ground-ball tendencies are appealing to AL East clubs, and he’s drawn interest from the Blue Jays, Orioles and Red Sox in addition to the Royals, Dodgers, Rangers, Cubs and Giants. Manny Parra and Marlon Byrd are both “likely to go” as well.
- Asked about the possibility of signing with the Cubs this offseason due to his relationship with skipper Joe Maddon, Tigers ace David Price replied, “Wherever I play baseball next year it’s not going to be because of a manager.”
- The Astros are interested in both Cueto and Leake, and Houston seems willing to deal from its glut of MLB-ready outfield prospects, including Domingo Santana and Preston Tucker. (Previous reports have indicated they’re reluctant to part with Brett Phillips, however, who may be the best among the outfield bunch.)
- The Brewers are now showing a willingness to trade both Carlos Gomez and Jean Segura, Heyman hears. Though it was previously believed they were reluctant to move Segura, the emergence of Orlando Arcia (the younger brother of the Twins’ Oswaldo Arcia) may have changed Milwaukee’s thinking. However, Arcia himself is also drawing a huge amount of trade interest, and the Padres have called to express interest. One NL exec called him the best player he’s seen in the minors this year, while another comped him to Francisco Lindor, but said Arcia is better. Regarding Segura, Heyman hears that the Mets dislike his free-swinging approach.
- The Twins aren’t closed off to the idea of re-acquiring Gomez from the Brewers, but their primary focus at this point is bullpen help.
- The Mets are aiming high in their pursuit of an outfield bat and have both Gomez and Justin Upton on their radar. They’re not likely to add Aramis Ramirez from the Brewers unless they receive bad news on the prognosis of David Wright. They also have little interest in swinging a deal for Uribe.
- Padres officials insist that they haven’t determined their course of action heading into the deadline, but Heyman writes that free-agents-to-be such as Upton, Ian Kennedy, Joaquin Benoit and Will Venable could be traded regardless. James Shields‘ backloaded contract limits his value, but one GM felt Benoit has “big value” and Heyman notes that Craig Kimbrel would be in huge demand as well, should the Padres try to recoup some value from that deal.
- Cueto, Samardzija and Leake are atop the Blue Jays‘ wish list, and the team was also in talks with the Braves regarding Jason Grilli prior to his season-ending injury. A top starting pitcher is Toronto’s top priority at this point, says Heyman. He also adds that there’s no evidence to suggest that manager John Gibbons is on the hot seat.
NL Central Notes: Pirates Targets, Soriano, Kirby
The Pirates would like to add a player or two prior the July 31 non-waiver trade deadline, writes Rob Biertempfel of the Pittsburgh Tribune-Review. First base and right field are the two most obvious areas of need, where the Bucs could at the very least use platoon partners for Pedro Alvarez and Gregory Polanco. Biertempfel again mentions both Ben Revere and Jeff Francoeur as potential fits, though Revere would seem more likely to supplant Polanco than platoon with him (both are left-handed, although Revere does actually hit lefties better than righties). In addition to those two offensive positions, the Pirates have been scouting big league starters and bullpen depth. Pittsburgh has “checked out” the Diamondbacks, writes Biertempfel, noting that both Addison Reed and Jeremy Hellickson are known to be available. (He does not, seemingly, indicate that there have been any actual discussions regarding those players, however.) Biertempfel also notes that the Pirates have previously had interest in Adam Lind, Scott Kazmir and Dan Haren, each of whom could be on the block.
Here’s more on the Pirates and their division…
- Pirates GM Neal Huntington feels that his team is in a good position because it doesn’t have one glaring hole and a subsequent need to overpay in order to fill that hole, writes Bill Brink of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette. However, upgrading the back end of the rotation may come with the risk, if not the likelihood of losing Vance Worley or Jeff Locke. Brink feels that the team is unlikely to move either starter to the bullpen if an upgrade is acquired — he points out that the Bucs elected to trade Clayton Richard rather than place him in the ‘pen — and since both Worley and Locke are out of options, they’d have to be exposed to waivers.
- The Cubs have promoted right-hander Rafael Soriano to Triple-A as he continues to ramp up and prepare to join the team in the second half, writes MLB.com’s Carrie Muskat. Soriano debuted with Triple-A Iowa last night, allowing one hit but striking out the side. The strong performance continued a nice run through the team’s minor league system; Soriano has fired six scoreless innings with a 7-to-3 K/BB ratio between Double-A and Triple-A. Signed to a minor league deal with a $4MM base salary (he’ll receive the pro-rated version of that for time spent on the MLB roster) plus incentives, Soriano could be a factor in the Cubs’ bullpen in the near future.
- Today is the deadline to sign picks from the 2015 draft, and while there’s been no reported agreement between the Brewers and No. 40 overall selection Nathan Kirby, Tom Haudricourt of the Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel hears (Twitter link) that the team still expects to sign the Virgina left-hander. Kirby was at one time a consideration to go in the top five to 10 picks, but a severe lat strain submarined his stock.
- Bernie Miklasz of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch recently penned an overview of the NL Central as we prepare to enter peak trade season. Miklasz runs down each club’s needs, as well as their most desirable trade chips (looking at prospects, among the buying clubs and Major Leaguers among the sellers).
Quick Hits: Astros, Expansion, Ballparks, Draft
Speaking to the press at the All-Star game, union chief Tony Clark addressed the question whether the Astros computer hacking scandal may have impacted the club’s free agent efforts last winter, as Evan Drellich of the Houston Chronicle reports. It doesn’t sound as if Clark has any particular concern in that regard, though he emphasized that he would wait to pass judgment until the investigation is completed. “We have bits and pieces and some understanding,” he said, “but at this point in time, from what we understand, that concern [of market manipulation] isn’t there. Doesn’t mean it may not be there when all is said and done, based on the information we get, but right now it’s not there.”
- Commissioner Rob Manfred also spoke with reporters, of course, and mentioned that he was open to the concept of expanding the league’s number of teams, as ESPN.com’s Jerry Crasnick writes. “Maybe one of the reasons I got this job is, I’m bullish on this game,” Manfred said. “I think we are a growth business, broadly defined. And over an extended period of time, growth businesses look to get bigger. So yeah, I’m open to the idea that there will be a point in time where expansion may be possible.”
- Of course, any idea of expansion is likely a fair ways off, and there are more pressing franchise issues in the near-term — particularly, the stadium concerns of the Rays and Athletics. Manfred said that the league remains optimistic that neither team will need to move, but did indicate that his office was planning to look into new cities as alternatives. Per Manfred, MLB will “examine [new markets’] viability, think about what we can do to make them more viable, so that we have business alternatives that are available to us.”
- The draft is always exciting, but it can be hard to contextualize the players chosen. Baseball America’s J.J. Cooper took a preliminary stab at placing recently-picked players alongside existing prospects, in a reader Q&A. All said, he only sees about a half dozen players from this year’s class warranting consideration among the top-fifty prospects league-wide, with top picks like Brendan Rodgers, Dansby Swanson, Dillon Tate, and Alex Bregman likely falling “in that 20-35 range.”
- We are, of course, coming down to the wire on draft signings. Players must agree to terms by Friday afternoon. The first overall selection, Swanson, has yet to sign, although most reports indicate that a deal is likely. But Twins competitive balance selection Kyle Cody is a question mark, with Darren Wolfson of 1500 ESPN tweeting that he’ll have to decide whether to accept a lower offer than he probably hoped for. Indeed, ESPN.com’s Keith Law adds on Twitter that he believes Cody will head back to college along with Dodgers comp pick Kyle Funkhouser (among other draftees). And the Brewers appear out of the race to land 29th-round flier Donny Everett, as Jon Heyman of CBSSports.com tweets that the talented righty will honor his commitment to Vanderbilt (as expected).
NL Central Notes: Fernandez, Reds, Bruce, Pirates
Marlins star Jose Fernandez, who shut out the Reds on Thursday, could have been pitching for the other side if things went differently in 2011, John Fay of the Cincinnati Enquirer writes. Fernandez was initially ruled ineligible by the Florida High School Association four years ago for issues stemming from his defection from Cuba. The Reds had a $1.3MM deal ready for Fernandez if he lost his appeal, but the hurler ultimately got the decision overturned.
“I talked to them,” Fernandez said. “But I ended up playing my senior year. I don’t know what would have happened. Life is crazy. You never know.”
Here’s more from the NL Central..
- One person familiar with the Reds thinking tells Jerry Crasnick of ESPN.com (on Twitter) that he believes there’s at least a 50/50 chance Jay Bruce is traded in July. Recently, Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports heard that Bruce is as “as good a bet as anyone” on the team to be dealt. Bruce, 28, is controllable for three more years and offers an established power bat.
- Bill Brink of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette turned in his mid-season report card for the Pirates. Brink gave the Bucs’ front office an A grade for the offseason it had, including the signing for Jung-ho Kang, which was viewed as a risk by some at the time. Kang has given the Bucs a .267/.343/.385 slash line with four homers while playing solid defense at third base.
- Reading between the lines, Tom Haudricourt of the Journal Sentinel suspects that a transition to a new Brewers GM is underway. Haudricourt reasons that if Melvin was going to remain the team’s GM in 2016, the club would have announced it by now. Sometime before the end of the season, the scribe believes the Brewers will announce that Melvin is out as GM, giving them time to search for a successor and have someone in place for important offseason decisions. Earlier this month it was reported that Melvin is considering a new role within the club.
Heyman On Grilli, D-backs, Marlins, Dodgers
Here are the highlights from Jon Heyman’s massive new Inside Baseball article for CBS Sports. Be sure to check out Heyman on the latest edition of the MLBTR Podcast.
- The Braves have had “serious talks” about dealing closer Jason Grilli to a contender, Heyman writes, with the Blue Jays and Dodgers among the teams that make the most sense.
- The Diamondbacks have made infielder Aaron Hill and pitchers Jeremy Hellickson and Addison Reed available in trades, and all three players have attracted at least some interest.
- The Marlins could trade starter Dan Haren for the right return. On paper, the Dodgers would seem to make sense, but that seems unlikely, since the Dodgers treated Haren basically as a throw-in in the Dee Gordon trade in the offseason. The Dodgers would also prefer to find a starter they could use in the playoffs, and Haren likely doesn’t qualify.
- Dodgers shortstop Jimmy Rollins could become available in a trade as top prospect Corey Seager continues to demonstrate he’s ready for the big leagues.
- The Dodgers, Blue Jays, Nationals and perhaps other teams had scouts on hand as Mariners starter Hisashi Iwakuma returned from a lat injury this week. Iwakuma could be a trade candidate, but Heyman notes that giving up four homers to the Tigers probably didn’t exactly increase his value.
- Brewers third baseman Aramis Ramirez still seems set on retiring after the season, despite agent Paul Kinzer’s efforts to get him to continue.
- The Padres have been scouting the Mets lately, leading to speculation that the Mets could be trying to trade for Justin Upton.
- The Phillies are “not bending” in their demands for Cole Hamels, and his limited no-trade clause remains an obstacle.
- The Giants have had talks with free agent infielder Everth Cabrera. The Orioles released Cabrera last month. He would provide depth for San Francisco.
Mets, Brewers Have Recently Discussed Ramirez, Segura
The Mets and Brewers have recently had trade talks in which both third baseman Aramis Ramirez and shortstop Jean Segura were discussed, Jon Morosi of FOX Sports reports on Twitter.
It is unclear from the report how advanced discussions are, but certainly it does not sound as if any moves are imminent. Morosi tweeted in early June that the two sides had discussed position players, but this report appears to cover more recent exchanges.
New York is obviously in need of help on the left side of its infield. Third baseman David Wright remains a complete question mark for the rest of the year, while the club has moved Opening Day shortstop Wilmer Flores off of the position. In that regard, both Ramirez and Segura make some amount of sense. But the two players are obviously quite different sorts of trade targets, and it’s far from certain that they would represent much of an improvement.
Ramirez, 37, is a fairly expensive veteran ($14MM this year) at the tail end of his career. He’s had a rough first half at the plate, but has turned things around somewhat more recently. New York would obviously hope that he returns to hitting near his well-above-average career norms, but it’s hard to know how much he’ll contribute the rest of the way. It is also unclear what kind of alignment the Mets would utilize if they installed Ramirez at third. Presumably, Daniel Murphy would bounce over to second and Flores would slide back to short.
Meanwhile, the 25-year-old Segura comes with three more seasons of club control, all through arbitration. An approximately average shortstop, according to Defensive Runs Saved and Ultimate Zone Rating, Segura has yet to repeat his stellar 2013 campaign at the plate. He has shown some upside and remains young enough to dream on somewhat. But with Milwaukee surely putting a steep price tag on Segura, it it is particularly hard to ignore his .253/.292/.332 slash since the start of 2014.
Injury Notes: Garza, Pence, Profar, Luebke
The Brewers have placed righty Matt Garza on the 15-day DL with what the team is calling right shoulder tendinitis, Todd Rosiak of the Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel reports. It appears as though the plan is to maximize Garza’s rest with the All-Star break, but one wonders whether the move also removes him from serious consideration as a trade piece this summer. Garza indicated that the issue was not terribly significant, but he has a long and growing list of medical ailments that have cropped up in his career. And then there’s the fact that Garza will not have much opportunity to improve his value after a rough first half. He is sporting a 5.55 ERA in 99 frames on the year, with ERA estimators not painting a much rosier picture, and his strikeout rate continues to fall. Garza is owed $12.5MM annually from 2014-17 under the deal he signed to join the Brewers, and also has a fairly achievable $13MM vesting clause tacked on at the end of his contract.
- Giants outfielder Hunter Pence appears to be nearing a return from the DL in the fairly near future, possibly before the All-Star break, MLB.com’s Oliver Macklin writes. San Francisco has dropped back to .500 and could certainly use a jolt from the dynamic Pence, not least of which because the club is also missing fellow corner outfielder Norichika Aoki. Assuming Pence can avoid another setback with his wrist and re-entrench himself in right field, the club would have a much less pressing need for an additional outfielder.
- Padres lefty Cory Luebke has suffered a setback in his bid to return from a second successive Tommy John procedure, Corey Brock of MLB.com reports. For now, it’s just elbow discomfort, but the team was concerned enough to bring the 30-year-old back to San Diego from his rehab assignment in Triple-A. Luebke has not pitched in the big leagues in over three years, though he has finally seen competitive action in the minors for the first time since originally blowing out his UCL.
- Another once-promising player who is on a long road back is Rangers infielder Jurickson Profar, who was once one of the game’s very best prospects. As Gerry Fraley of the Dallas Morning News writes, Profar remains staggeringly young given how long he’s been on the scene and out with shoulder issues. He’ll still only be 23 come next spring. Profar remains a long way from returning to the big leagues, says Fraley, who notes that he is progressing through daily rehab sessions and monthly MRI tests.
Trade Market Notes: Papelbon, Indians, Cotts, Maybin
Phillies closer Jonathan Papelbon said today that he would be surprised and disappointed if he is not traded this summer, MLB.com’s Todd Zolecki reports. The veteran righty indicated that he’d be willing to waive his no-trade clause to play for any contender — provided, that is, that he’d work in a closing capacity. “I think [the front office] knows where I’m at,” he said. “I’ve always been straightforward that I want to go play for a contender and I’m not going to shy away from it. I feel like that’s my right and my prerogative to have that opportunity and, you know, it’s in their hands. The ball’s in their court. I guess that’s kind of it.” While Papelbon’s preferences will play a significant role in his market, he’s done nothing but increase his trade value through his on-field performance this year. Entering today’s action, the 34-year-old owns a 1.65 ERA with 9.4 K/9 against 1.9 BB/9 — and a career-best 50.6% groundball rate — on the season.
- The Indians are still alive for a post-season berth even though the club has underperformed expectations, and Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports reports that the club will probably stand pat for the most part at the trade deadline. Cleveland is not terribly interested in dealing away Carlos Santana, but could consider moving David Murphy or Ryan Raburn, both of whom have been quite productive this year and can be controlled through fairly reasonable 2016 options. In the event that the Indians decide to add pieces, says Rosenthal, the club could target a pen arm or a bat (at an unidentified position — the left side of the infield seeming most likely).
- The Twins and Brewers have had some preliminary trade chats, Mike Berardino of the St. Paul Pioneer-Press reports (Twitter links). It is not clear precisely what players were under discussion, though Berardino indicates that Milwaukee lefty Neal Cotts could hold some appeal to Minnesota.
- Some opposing clubs believe the Braves could be interested in selling high on outfielder Cameron Maybin this summer, Buster Olney of ESPN.com reports on Twitter. Olney had previously indicated on Twitter that Atlanta was not interested in parting with Maybin, who’s been quite a pleasant surprise since coming over as part of the salary swaps in the Craig Kimbrel deal. But he could have significant appeal to teams in need of an outfielder, particularly if the market ends up being largely devoid of bats.