The Seibu Lions have agreed to post right-hander Kona Takahashi for Major League teams this winter, according to a report from Nikkai Sports. Takahashi turns 29 in February, and he has a 2.95 ERA, 13.8% strikeout rate, and 6.9% walk rate over 116 innings and 19 starts for the Lions this season, which is his 11th campaign in Nippon Professional Baseball.
The numbers reflect something of a bounce-back for Takahashi, who had a 3.87 ERA over 81 1/3 frames in 2024 and a rather glaring 0-11 record. Even with the caveat that win-loss records aren’t the best indicator of performance, it was a far cry from the form that saw Takahashi deliver a 2.20 ERA during the 2022-23 seasons, as his tough year included a drop in velocity and even some time in the Japanese minor leagues.
Takahashi first expressed an interest in coming to MLB after his big 2022 campaign, and though he has appeared in each of the last 11 NPB seasons, he still hasn’t amassed the full nine years of service time necessary for full free agency. The Lions have nevertheless agreed to let Takahashi search for a Major League team a bit early, and landing a contract would allow the Lions to gain some money via a posting fee.
Once an NPB player is posted, he has 45 days to work out a deal with a Major League club. If no deal is reached, the player returns to his Nippon Professional Baseball club for the next season and can’t be posted again until the following winter. If a deal is reached, the player’s original NPB club earns a posting fee depending on the size of his MLB contract. Should the player sign a big league deal worth $25MM or less in guaranteed money, the NPB team will receive 20 percent of the total guarantee. If the player signs a minor league deal, the NPB team will get 25 percent of the signing bonus, plus a later supplemental free if the player is added to the MLB team’s active roster.
It seems likely that any contract Takahashi lands will be within the lower ranges of the posting system, as the Yakyu Cosmopolitan writes that Takahashi’s “market will be similar to” that of Shinnosuke Ogasawara or Naoyuki Uwasawa. Ogasawara signed a two-year, $3.5MM contract with the Nationals last January after being posted by the Chunichi Dragons, and Uwasawa signed a non-guaranteed split contract with the Rays in January 2024 after the Nippon Ham Fighters posted the right-hander.
Takahashi has solid control but isn’t much of a strikeout pitcher, as his 20% strikeout rate from the 2020 season (over 120 1/3 innings) is his career high in Japan. MLB teams may be looking at him more as reliever or a swingman than as a rotation candidate, but the ever-present need for pitching means that Takahashi has a solid chance of landing some kind of a deal to get to the majors in 2026. The Nikkai report indicates that evaluators from the Angels, Athletics, Blue Jays, Cardinals, Mariners, and Rangers recently scouted one of Takahashi’s starts, so the right-hander is getting at least some due-diligence interest from a range of teams.
Good fastball / splitter combination. Needs to drive on back glute longer and show off more of front glute. Might be a reliever. Best case scenario, stuff wise, with some improvement, Dan Haren
Really good splitter
Worth a minimal few million dollar risk for any team.
Meanwhile, Munetaka Murakami just had 3HR game tonight versus Hiroshima. In just 30 games this season, dude already hitting 14 HR in just 112AB and had OPS 1.000.
Murakami’s market will be interesting. He’s overall hitting receded quite a bit since his 56-HR season, K’s at an alarming rate, isn’t a good fielder, and now has an injury question mark that caused him to miss most of this season. On the flip side, still just 25, good eye, and the power is legit. I guess we can pencil him in to the Dodgers lineup at 3B next year!
Don’t most Japanese players move down the defensive spectrum when moving to the states? He profiles like a 1b/dh type and those guys generally don’t do that well in free agency. Granted he’s 25. Most good teams don’t lock up those types for long term because inevitably another guy on your team Ala Harper or judge will get hurt and need to play 1b/dh full time.
A 13.8% strikeout rate in NPB isn’t going to translate well to MLB.
No joke
I’m figuring 3.8%.
Nippon Baseball leagues confuse me. Paxific and Central are their majors, the Eastern and Western Leagues are minors, but it seems like “major leaguers” play in the Eastern or Western every season.
Typically rehab assignments, no different than seeing Hunter Greene play in Louisville on his way back.
I really do not understand why teams with both budget and major league roster spots for starters like the White Sox, Rockies, etc at the bottom of the league are not all over this. Instead all the clubs linked with the player are the usual suspects linked with NPB signings. They can offer more than a swingman role (unless he pitches himself out of it) and don’t have as much cash on the books so can take chances. It boggles the mind.
Because his numbers aren’t that good.
Would you want to play for either team. and sit in last place the entire season?
You don’t know why a Japanese pitcher wouldn’t want to pitch in Colorado?
Hideo Nomo did throw a no-hitter there so there’s that.
The posting system is why it’s the “usual suspects”. Teams like the Rockies or White Sox aren’t going to try to outbid the Dodgers or the Yankees and for guys in the same situation as Sasaki or Ohtani that can choose wherever they go they aren’t likely to choose those teams as their stepping stones in MLB
@rsox. Takahashi might break the cycle. He might be looking at something like sugano maybe more years. Shouldn’t be that high of price
For all the many answers to your question, the truest response is the teams you named don’t scout Asia. Only around half the league makes any sort of serious effort at doing so. And that’s probably more than should bother. The Phillies just light their Asia money on fire, for instance.
I could see him a swing man or long reliever but it might be brutal. Hes got to make them pound it in to the dirt cause hes not striking out amyone.
Wake up babe, new Dodgers pitcher just dropped
Not all Japanese pitchers go to the Dodgers.
Really? Tell me more grandpa