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Trade Rumor Roundup: 4 Days Left

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What’s cooking this morning in the world of MLB trade rumors?

Gotham Baseball’s Mark Healey spoke to all sorts of baseball sources; here’s his latest Rumor Mill.  New developments: the Mets could pursue various Rockie pitchers, and the Yanks crave John Smoltz.

My Mets guy indicates that the Wilson Betemit for Scott Linebrink deal that’s been bandied about could go down at the last minute.  What?  He hears things outside of the Mets.

SportsBlah sorts through the Alfonso Soriano rumors. 

Jimmy Gobble was scratched from his start last night.  Let the rampant rumormongering begin.  Actually, KC just switched him with Runelvys Hernandez to break up the southpaws in the rotation.   

As the days go by, Doug Melvin sounds more and more like he’ll trade Carlos Lee.

RotoAuthority gives the fantasy take on Shin-Soo Choo, Ben Broussard, Scott Kazmir, and many more recent developments.

All the newspapers are reporting that the Yankees have deemed Scott Proctor "untouchable."  I know good relief help is hard to find, but should a 29 year-old middling reliever at the peak of his value really be deemed untouchable?  Especially the way Joe Torre is abusing him.

Hadn’t heard of the Mets’ interest in Juan Cruz and Jose Valverde until Dan Graziano mentioned it this morning.  Could be a great buy low situation for a real live arm in Valverde.  Cruz I think could be tough to pry away.

There was just no reason to try to start Roger Clemens trade speculation.  The Astros, five games back in the wildcard, have invested way too much to suddenly wave the white flag.

Bidding war for…Cory Lidle?  Looks like Toronto has the lead so far; Lidle starts tonight.

Buster Olney mentioned today in his blog that the White Sox are willing to discuss trades for Freddy Garcia.  He also indicates that the Red Sox are working on a large, creative deal with more than two teams.

Add the Mariners and Cardinals to the Yankees for Shawn Green’s interested parties.  He can veto a deal to any of these three teams and is happy in Arizona.

Royals Trade Dessens, Graffanino

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Busy day for Dayton Moore, as he acquired all sorts of pitchers for his veterans.

Let’s start with his first trade: Elmer Dessens to the Dodgers for Blake Johnson, Julio Pimentel, Odalis Perez, and cash.  If you’re like me, you’ve never heard of Johnson or Pimentel, so let’s start there.

Pimentel and Johnson were ranked 16th and 17th among Dodgers prospects entering the 2006 season by Baseball America.  Pimentel is a 20 year-old converted outfielder currently struggling in High Class A.  Pimentel’s teammate Blake Johnson is a 21 year-old righty who was drafted in the second round in ’04.  Just a couple of live arms to help the Royals’ system; collect enough and someone’s bound to pan out.

Odalis Perez is an intriguing pickup for a team like the Royals.  He immediately becomes their most talented pitcher despite his awful 2006.  Looking at his peripherals, his strikeout rate dropped this season and his hits allowed skyrocketed.  Perez’s control remains excellent.  The southpaw had mixed results in the World Baseball Classic this March.  He claimed to be in the best shape of his life in February following an ’05 season marred by an oblique strain, shoulder inflammation, and biceps tendinitis.

Financials: Perez is due around $2.75MM for the rest of this season, $7.75MM next season, and a $1.5MM buyout for ’08 if the Royals don’t want him for $9MM.  Of that $12MM, the Dodgers are paying $8MM.  That leaves KC with just a $4MM obligation to Perez for the rest of this year and his age 29 season.  He’s projected to be worth that much in ’07 alone, and the Royals don’t have much to lose. 

As for Dessens, he’s your run-of-the-mill 34 year-old reliever.  He’ll earn roughly $640,000 for the rest of ’06 and $1.7MM next year.

The Royals also shipped Tony Graffanino to the Brewers for Jorge De La Rosa.  De La Rosa, a 25 year-old southpaw, has fared poorly in the Majors with a 5.12 ERA in 65 innings.  He was traded to the Diamondbacks in the Curt Schilling deal in ’03 and then bounced to the Brewers in the Richie Sexson trade a few days later.  De La Rosa has dealt with elbow and control issues (they go hand in hand), but he’s still got a bit of promise.

Trade Rumor Roundup: 8 Days Left

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To begin with, this just isn’t true.  With the Kearns deal and probably Soriano trade, the 2006 deadline just can’t be classified as a dud.  That honor belongs to 2005 for sure.  The trading action never matches the buildup, but this year’s still a good one.

Read Ken Rosenthal’s latest.  The White Sox are in the Soriano game, the Rangers have interest in Luis Gonzalez, the Braves could add another reliever, Julio Lugo still might become a Blue Jay, and the Brewers look like sellers.  In my opinion, some Brewers besides Carlos Lee that could be unloaded: Geoff Jenkins, Corey Koskie, Brady Clark, and Dan Kolb.  Koskie will need to recover quickly from his concussion, however.

Still hearing that the Cubs like Willy Taveras, which would definitely fit their m.o. of players who don’t get on base.  Phil Rogers also mentions that Seattle’s Rafael Soriano is being asked about. It would be surprising to see the Mariners deal that kind of young talent.

Tons of great rumors coming from Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe.  He’s got a rundown of the Red Sox, all sorts of teams scouting Humberto Sanchez, and more. 

Buster Olney mentioned in his blog today that the Astros are among various teams scouting Elmer Dessens.  The Astros are also looking at Damaso Marte.

Unfounded rumor department: Could the Dodgers be after Aramis Ramirez?  Ramirez has picked a fantastic time to heat up, and L.A. has some top shelf young talent…is there anywhere Julio Lugo could go besides Toronto?  How about the Rockies?

Rumor Roundup

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Here are some trade rumors from the last day or so that we haven’t covered.  All come from various newspapers or other published reports.

Yesterday ESPN’s Jayson Stark reported some Bobby Abreu interest coming from the Brewers.  It was a longshot from the start given Abreu’s contract.  Today it’s been revealed that Doug Melvin hasn’t even spoken to Pat Gillick on the topic, and the rumor was placed by a rival GM.  Any guesses who?

Something seems to be brewing between the Yankees and Royals, and Reggie Sanders is the name that makes sense. The Royals would do well to unload the 38 year-old right fielder’s $5MM commitment for ’07.  A deal could also include reliever Elmer Dessens, who’s signed through next season.  For the second trading deadline in a row, Brian Cashman seems to be taking a more level-headed approach.

Another option for the Yanks is Kevin Mench of the Rangers.  Mench has been jerked around a bit this year by Buck Showalter and could come at a reduced price.  I recently outlined a couple of possible career paths for Mench over at RotoAuthority.  His career may be at a fork in the road; he should take it.

According to Ken Rosenthal, the Mariners have become a major player for Alfonso Soriano.  Bill Bavasi has stumbled with some questionable signings, but Seattle remains just four games out in a weak division.  Don’t forget that Bavasi loves to deal with Kevin Towers more than any GM, so he may try to match up with the Padres somehow.

What Could Greg Maddux Bring?

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Add the Brewers to the list of teams that could be a fit for Greg Maddux.  The shoulder injuries of Tomo Ohka and Ben Sheets seem to be rehabbing normally, so there may not be a vacancy in Milwaukee’s rotation.  Still, it never hurts to have too much starting pitching. 

Maddux, now 40 years old, is piling on the innings as usual this year.  His critics will point to a trend in declining ERAs, but I don’t think it’s that simple.  The Professor has continued to pitch like he has since 2003.  The only real difference in 2006 is that his hit rate is up to 10.1 per nine.  I know it doesn’t seem like it, but researchers have not found the pitcher to have a major influence on the fate of a batted ball.  At the most, he might explain 30% of the variance.  Luck is a far bigger determinant, and defense and ballpark are signficant too.

Maddux’s ability at this point is probably on par with that of Jeff Weaver.  He’s a low 4 ERA type guy, a nice addition for a team in need of depth.  He may be worth about 2-3 wins over replacement level from here on out, which may be the difference for a team like the Cardinals, Padres, Brewers, or Dodgers.

If Jim Hendry can find a destination that Maddux likes, pass along the remainder of his $9MM salary, and get a decent young hitter in return, he’s done his job.  For some reason I keep thinking of the Brewers’ Corey Hart.  He’s versatile and Major League ready, and the Cubs badly need outfield help for the future.  The Dodgers’ Delwyn Young could be a possibility, while Ben Johnson could be available from the Padres.  Johnson is currently on the DL with a shoulder strain, but he can still be dealt.

Back in April, it was clear Maddux’s value was at its highest point of the season.  It wasn’t clear that the Cubs would be this awful, however.

 

Cubs Shopping Maddux?

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A good one from the rumor mill over at Gotham Baseball.  Unfortunately their page is not working right now so here’s a link to MetsBlog’s take on Gotham’s report.  According to Gotham, Greg Maddux is being shopped.  Interested parties: Mets, Yankees, Brewers, Phillies, Diamondbacks, Royals, and Cardinals. 

The Cubs would essentially be reducing their rotation to "Carlos Zambrano and pray for a tornado," but Maddux is an impending free agent.  My opinion from a couple of weeks ago:  he’s the same old Mad Dog, just with a well-timed hot streak.  Still, dealing him now would be a very early white flag for a Cubs team with a $94MM payroll.  Doesn’t seem to compute.  And the obligatory intradivision thing must be cited for the Brewers and Cards.  I am surprised no West Coast teams have been mentioned.

Carlos Lee To Cubs Deal Imminent

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MLBTradeRumors has learned of a blockbuster deal that is expected to go down by the end of the day.  Talks between Jim Hendry and Doug Melvin are in advanced stages of a rare interdivision trade. 

The Cubs will send Matt Murton, Rich Hill, and Angel Guzman to the Brewers for slugger Carlos Lee.  Lee will be a free agent after the 2006 season, and the Cubs intend to lock him up after finishing the Derrek Lee deal.  According to my source, the Brewers view Lee’s impending free agency as a distraction and desperately want to shed his $8.5MM salary. 

Lee is expected to bat fourth between the other Lee, Derek, and Aramis Ramirez.

What do you think?  Did the Cubs overpay to get the other Lee?

Carlos Lee Trade Possibilities

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There are all sorts of reasons to expect Carlos Lee to get traded sometime between now and the July deadline.

1.  He’s an impending free agent making $8.5MM.

2.  Doug Melvin is a savvy GM, and knows when to sell high (see Dan Kolb).

3.  The Brewers have an able replacement left fielder in Corey Hart, who is projected by PECOTA to hit .272/.337/.475 in 2006.  Lee is projected by the same system to hit .282/.347/.506.  Accepting that difference in production would allow Melvin to net a top prospect or two.

4.  Lee may be overrated in some circles because of his 114 RBIs.  According to VORP (Value Over Replacement Player), Lee was worse offensively in 2005 than guys like Emil Brown and Raul Ibanez.

The Brewers will have plenty of trade partners for Lee.  Phil Rogers mentions both the White Sox and Cubs by name.  Here’s my own analysis of the possibilities.

Red Sox – If the Sox end up trading Manny for young players, Lee could fill the power void with 35 HR.

Blue Jays – Ricciardi dealt amicably with Melvin for Lyle Overbay, and the Jays don’t have much going on in LF.  If they’re hovering near contention in July it makes a ton of sense.

White Sox – I don’t see it.  They didn’t part on the best of terms, and the Sox have good outfield depth.  I’m for any move that relegates Podsednik to the bench, but I don’t think reacquiring Lee would be the first choice.

Angels – It would involve shuffling outfielders around, but Lee would be a more reasonable addition than Manny.  Maybe the Halos would consider dealing Dallas McPherson for him.

Braves – The Braves have definitely dealt for big-name sluggers in the past as opposed to acquiring them via free agency.  J.D. Drew, Gary Sheffield, and Fred McGriff come to mind.  They have the stacked minor league system to get it done.

Cubs – Both clubs might be contending in the Central division, so it makes a trade less likely.  Back in January, though, Sun-Times writer Greg Couch proposed the Cubs try to entice the Brewers with both Felix Pie and Rich Hill.

Cardinals – They have the need, but the same division thing would have to prevent a trade.

My ranking of the most likely suitors:  Blue Jays, Braves, Angels, Cubs.  I’d like to see your thoughts in the comments.

Brewers Acquire Corey Koskie

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The Miami Herald and WTMJ in Milwaukee are reporting that Brewers GM Doug Melvin has swooped in and acquired third baseman Corey Koskie.  To get him, they sent righthanded reliever Brian Wolfe to Toronto.  Wolfe is a 25 year-old career minor leaguer with little chance of ever seeing the big leagues.  This was a salary dump, as Koskie is owed $5.25MM in 2006 and $5.75MM in 2007.  His $6.5MM 2008 option can be bought out for $500,000. However, the option becomes guaranteed if Koskie gets at least 796 plate appearances over the next two seasons.

Koskie will be entering his age 33 season with a career line of .277/.369/.455.  He’s averaged just 115 games over the last three seasons.  His latest injury was a broken thumb with ligament damage.  If the Jays are throwing in some cash, it’s another smart acquisition by Doug Melvin.  Koskie’s not terribly expensive, and if the Brewers can keep him on the field they’ll get decent on-base skills and 20-25 HR.  The move rightly puts Bill Hall back into more of a utility role, although he’ll start at third with southpaws on the mound.  The platoon could easily result in Milwaukee getting 30 HR out of the third base spot in ’06.

RotoWorld speculates that righty masher 3B/1B/OF Russell Branyan could be traded.  Which club would benefit from his services?  The Twins, Phillies, and Indians would be good fits.

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