MLBTR Chats News & Rumors

Michael

• Which free agent left-handed starting pitcher will end up in Pittsburgh this year?

Tim Dierkes

• https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2025/10/2025-26-mlb-free-agents.html
• I hadn’t really considered them adding an SP much.  Can I interest you in Nestor Cortes though?

Steve Adams

• Feels like there’s always one! Haha. But I don’t think they’ll reprise the Rich Hill, Tyler Anderson, Andrew Heaney, Martin Perez signing this year.
• Money has to go to bats.
• Nestor would be a decent cheap option for midseason depth though, sure, if they want to carry on the tradition
• Maybe give Kyle Hart a minor league deal, haha

Tim Dierkes

• I think the signature move will be a trade for a bat, but I threw the Pirates on Jorge Polanco anyway.  I assume he’ll have better options, but maybe others will be reluctant to go to three years and the Pirates can break precedent and actually do a market value multiyear deal.

Steve Adams

• I had the Bucs on Mullins before he was bumped from the list when the Rays declined Fairbanks’ option last-minute

Guest

• Do you see the Orioles sign a quality SP and not someone like Morton

Steve Adams

• Still think Mullins should be on here, but I digress.

Tim Dierkes

• I’m not positive it’s a signing, but my guess is that the Orioles perhaps learned their lesson with how the Morton/Sugano “safe” additions went.  I think it’s finally time they go bigger.

Steve Adams

• I put them on Framber. I don’t think he’s going to command the 6+ years to which Elias seems averse, and Elias was the Astros’ scouting director for years and has brought in a handful of former Houston guys during his tenure. That’s a reach, of course, but we grasp at straws on these things when making picks sometimes, haha.

Tim Dierkes

• Cease, Framber, King, and Giolito got picks from our team. There’s really no SP they should not be in on.

Reds

• Predicting Pete Alonso to come to the Queen City is quite bold, isn’t it?

Steve Adams

• Broadly speaking, I do think they’ll make a more impactful move. I had them on King for awhile, too. I don’t think they’ll go super long-term. (Orioles)

Tim Dierkes

• It kind of is, but it’s mostly the idea that the Mets have a good chance of moving on and the contract will not be prohibitive.  For the most part I’ve seen larger contract predictions elsewhere and if that happens then it’s probably not the Reds.  It’ll be interesting to see if the market responds differently to have.  Seemed like no one gave a decent four or five-year offer.  I know it was a better year but I don’t think he’s drastically different moving forward.
• *have = him

Steve Adams

• It’s bold in the sense that the Reds don’t spend like this in free agency, but not in the sense that Alonso just isn’t going to cost THAT much by today’s standards. Cincinnati has enough payroll capacity to make one big move in free agency and would free up more if they trade Singer (unless they do the Singer-Taylor Ward swap I have been manifesting for weeks, haha)There’s no clear option at 1B. The team is desperate for offense. We expect the Reds to try for Schwarber, a Cincinnati native they love, and when they fall short pivot to the next-best bet in terms of power bats.

  I wound up putting Alonso on the Red Sox, but I was between them and the Reds primarily for him. We’ll see if they actually pull the trigger, but it feels feasible based on payroll

• And hey, they gave Votto twice what we’re predicting for Pete — and that was more than a decade ago

Jim

• Biggest free agent the A’s sign?

Tim Dierkes

• The A’s got more love on our list than I thought they would.  Eugenio Suarez, Bassitt, Seranthony, G Soto, Mahle, Willi Castro.  The last two of those were mine.  I think they make sense for guys who are finding their market to be disappointing, because we know FA generally don’t want to go there.  I guess Mahle is a stretch, but it was tough to place all these SP without overloading certain teams.  I’m sure the A’s want to add SP.
• I guess I didn’t answer the question.  I’ll stick with Willi.  Can play a bunch of 2B, help out in the OF corners, poor finish to his year.

Steve Adams

• Severino’s experience and vocal distaste for pitching there has me wondering if they’ll be able to reel in another starter of note, so I gave them some decent relievers (Dominguez, Soto). I could see them going after an infield bat though. Jorge Polanco, Gleyber Torres, Geno Suarez.I don’t think it’s impossible that they sign a SP, but they’d probably need to comfortably overpay — like be the team that goes the extra mile for a once-prominent SP whose stock is down. Zac Gallen, perhaps.

Jim

• Do you agree the A’s will have to address their rotation through trade(s) rather than free agency?

Steve Adams

• I do find that the likelier outcome

Tim Dierkes

• Mostly yes. I assume there will be certain guys who would look at them because they can guarantee an opp to start.

Brandon

• I find it very hard to believe Mets let Diaz go, yet everyone predicted he signs with another team. What was the logic behind this?

Steve Adams

• (Re: A’s — also via the farm! Gage Jump time in 2026!)

Tim Dierkes

• I’d say you’re putting too much stock in the team picks.  A little odd to explain but I don’t think any of us feel like the Mets are out on Diaz or unlikely or something.  Personally, though, it was not Stearns who did the first Diaz contract, and committing $20MM+ per year over four to an RP seems like the opposite of why Cohen hired him.  Could Steve just override and say “We need a bullpen, get it done!”?  Of course.

Steve Adams

• I find a Mets return totally plausible, but David Stearns hasn’t to this point been a “let’s pay top-of-market prices for relatively old free agents” kind of guy. The Mets went nuts on Soto, obviously, but he’s 26 and that was a Steve Cohen call anyhow. Maybe Cohen will just keep Diaz at all costs. I find that plausible. But Stearns tends to operate more on the value side of things.(Then again, I put Devin Williams there on a pretty big deal himself, but Williams’ first-half struggles in the Bronx might’ve cost him tens of millions of dollars, so I can see Stearns — former Milwaukee GM/president — thinking his former closer is a relative bargain who’ll bounce back just fine)

Tim Dierkes

• I like the Dodgers on Diaz for the sheer obviousness of A) not having a bullpen by the WS B) him being the top available RP for just money and C) they just won the WS, they have plenty of money to spend, and it has to go somewhere.

Steve Adams

• I put Diaz in Toronto for similar reasons to Tim putting him in L.A.

Rich S

• Brad Keller to the Dodgers ?

Tim Dierkes

• Viable, unless they want a guy with a deeper track record of success.
• I had Keller on the Braves like some of my colleagues, perhaps because AA has spent on RP and Keller could be one of those “maybe he can start” conversions like Reynaldo was.  I did a late switch when I decided Raisel could just stay there, and I didn’t have the Yankees doing anything to address their bullpen.

Steve Adams

• Totally viable. We’ve been wondering whether a team will try to put him back in the rotation. Five pitches. Track record as a solid starter before he had TOS surgery.The Braves love the reliever-to-starter move (Reynaldo Lopez, tried it with Jeff Hoffman but balked at the physical) … and they also love Georgia guys … like Keller!

FishFam

• O’Hearn to Miami feel like a fit?

Steve Adams

• 100%

Tim Dierkes

• 3 of 4 of us picked that, ROH is a low-end regular, they have a clear 1B need and intend to be more active in FA that usual.  We had him on a three-year deal and switched to two late.  I guess Anthony thinks Naylor leaves the Mariners and they switch to him.

Jim

• Which free agent caused the biggest disagreement among you all?

Steve Adams

• I had him there even before Barry Jackson with the Miami Herald suggested this week that the Marlins will try to add a more established presence at 1B. ROH won’t break the bank, and the Marlins are a team that could even push to a third year to get the deal done.
• A lot of them!  Haha

Tim Dierkes

• Hmm.  Let’s throw some out there.  I had to fight to get Robert Suarez a third year

Steve Adams

• Who was our biggest? Dylan Cease maybe?

Tim Dierkes

• We pushed Bellinger up to 140 late
• Darragh and I had Cease on a long-term deal, Anthony and Steve short.  Long won out but that can go either way

Steve Adams

• You didn’t “fight” for it. You just overrode the rest of us and gave him the third year haha

Tim Dierkes

• Haha fair
• I do that once in a while, with limited success haha

Steve Adams

• Yeah, I came around on Cease long-term eventually. I like the pitcher and think he SHOULD get paid. I just am wary with the ERA fluctuations.A few more…

Tim Dierkes

• I had Murakami a lot lower, but I get why we came up

Steve Adams

• Tim and I had a hilariously impassioned back-and-forth over one year versus two for Raisel Iglesias of all people. I did not expect to be a passionate Raisel Iglesias truther, but this list does weird things to us.
• Devin Williams we were all over the map on

Tim Dierkes

• I had King and Gallen on two-year opt-out deals but came around to the four years

Steve Adams

• He’s another in the Cease bucket of “this ERA is a fluke, he’s one of the best in baseball … will he get paid based on the rate stats?”

Tim Dierkes

• I might still take the under on Devin, but we argued so much back and forth that my brain turned to mush

Steve Adams

• Eventually we decided yes.I was heavy on Zac Gallen despite not liking the pitcher much. It’s hard to take that stance with much vigor…. “I don’t think this guy is that good, but I do think he’s going to get paid because XYZ”

Tim Dierkes

• Yeah, we have guys like that every year.  I remember the year Hosmer was a FA, we knew he’d get paid and none of us would like it.  That proved true

Andy

• Would the Dodgers risk clubhoise chemistry by trading Teo or Muncy to make room for a big splash?

Steve Adams

• None of us are very big on Gallen. I think we all feel he’s a landmine. But we thought the same about Madison Bumgarner, predicted him to get paid anyway, and we were right.Cuts both ways though. We all thought Alonso would be hung out to dry last winter but didn’t have the guts to predict a short-term deal for him. Wish we would have stuck to our guns.

Tim Dierkes

• On the Dodgers question, I think they’d look at that.  They could also just bring someone in and let things be crowded.  For example, if they love Murakami or he wants to go there on an affordable deal, they could just jam him in there and keep Freeman/Muncy

Steve Adams

• I find Hernandez more viable than Muncy, mainly because Max is only on a cheap one-year deal. If they want to make a bigger splash, they can just do it and sort out the playing time. Murakami, for instance.Teo feels like a square peg in a round hole there with two more years of bad OF defense all but locked in. He didn’t hit that well this year. They only brought him back with heavy deferrals at a relatively light rate (by big-market standards).

  I think they’d welcome the opportunity to move on, but that’s totally speculative on my end just based on years of watching how they operate. I have not pinged Friedman or Gomes to get their thoughts on the matter, haha

Kk

• Will the Red Sox really pursue any of the power bats with limited to no defensive value (Schwarber, Alonso, Suarez, Murakami etc)? I see the names pop up incessantly, but it seems like the polar opposite of how the team wants to change. Clearly, contracts like Yoshida’s and Devers’ are not the type they easily stomach.

Tim Dierkes

• I put them on Geno for lack of a better option in concert with my other picks.  They want power, they want better defense, he only offers one of those.  Most players who offer both are not available.  But they basically have DH open, so they can accomplish the power without affecting the defense.  Yoshida was a mistake, but Breslow didn’t make it.  I don’t know that that would affect their interest in Schwarber.

Steve Adams

• I think they have pretty easily stomached Yoshida’s. I also think that was them sort of trying to get cute by overspending on a NPB bat they hoped could produce at Alonso-y levels (not in terms of pure power but just overall offensive value) and it burned them significantly.Again, we’re basically giving Alonso like $24-27M per season over a four- or five-year deal. It’s just not that much by their standards. They can play him at 1B for a year or two, then move him to DH and let him absolutely destroy the Monster (or maybe not, since he’d be clearing the thing so often)

Tim Dierkes

• Geno is Eugenio Suarez, for future reference.  We are thankful for shorthand options as we do most of our deliberating in a Discord chat

Steve Adams

• Good Vibes Only

Meow

• Congrats on 20 years, guys! Feels like the site has grown so big since I was browsing it to kill time in college over 15 () years ago.

Tim Dierkes

• Thanks!  We have come a long way from the days where I did all of the writing and in a much less professional way

Ray

• Looks like the Cubs won’t be shopping at the top, am I wrong?

Steve Adams

• I was browsing it to kill time (and figure out where Johan Santana was going to be traded) in college … 18 years ago! Did not think I’d be working here full-time for what’s now coming up on a decade and a half (wtf)

Tim Dierkes

• I can’t tell yet.  Logically payroll should be up this year, at least closer to the CBT.  The Kittredge trade was weirdly cheap for a bullpen that basically just has Palencia, but maybe they just don’t like him at that money for next year.  I’m guessing the Cubs would prefer to trade for a good SP than sign one.  They’ve rarely done the latter, but Hoyer was there for Lester and Darvish.  Lester was a Cubs legend and Darvish was solid for most of the six years even though Hoyer dealt him halfway through.

Steve Adams

• The Cubs never want to shop at the top. I don’t really understand why. They’re the Cubs. They print money.I could see them adding one of the bigger starters but not quite the top of the market. Did I put them on Ranger Suarez? I think I did. Ha. Something in that just-over-100 price range.

  I also put them on Kazuma Okamoto, simply because I don’t think Matt Shaw did anything in 2025 to seize the 3B job, and if they’re not going to shell out for an absolute top-of-market free agent, Shaw, Caissie, etc. are going to be popular asks on the trade market.

  I think the Cubs will be in on Joe Ryan, MacKenzie Gore — basically all the big trade names this winter.

Go Birds!

• Does kyle tucker end up in red pinstripes in south philly this coming season?

Steve Adams

• I can see it. Phils were on my short list of plausible Tucker spots, along with the Giants, Jays, Yankees and Dodgers.

Tim Dierkes

• Darragh predicted that.  I think it’s reasonable enough, particularly if Schwarber leaves.

Jack

• Could the D-Backs be a sneaky fit for Alex Bregman? He is a New Mexico guy. I know Lawlar is likely their intended 3B next year but maybe if they land Bregman they could seek to use him as a headliner for a big starter acquisition?

Tim Dierkes

• I hadn’t though much about that fit.  They are supposed to reduce payroll and are prioritizing pitching.  That said, Ken Kendrick’s big moves sometimes seem to come out of nowhere.

Steve Adams

• Lawlar looks so, so bad at 3B. They’re trying him in CF. I don’t think they’re convinced at all that he’s the long-term 3B. They traded Suarez and still didn’t hand 3B over to him full time.Snakes are trying to scale back payroll and contend simultaneously, which is a tall ask — particularly since they have basically no rotation or bullpen right now. I expect pitching to be the primary focus.

  Even if they did trade Lawlar for a pitcher — which feels perfectly plausible — I think they’d still dedicate their free agent resources to pitching

Free agent buzz

• What do you think the Jays pivot is if they don’t land bichette? Do they look at the OF and move Barger to 3B/Clement 2B? Do you see them focusing on bichette or the pitching market first?

Tim Dierkes

• The Jays are one of those teams that is capable of adding just about anyone.  If Bichette leaves, I could see Bregman or even Tucker.  And I could see them signing any SP or RP, up to and including Cease or E Diaz.  Would they sign two top 10 FA?  Not the type of thing we like to predict on our list, but it happens.

Steve Adams

• They can do anything, in part because Shane Bieber just decided to leave anywhere from $60-100MM on the table and gift them a return at the same price we saw the shells of Alex Cobb and Charlie Morton command last winter.(I think that may be the most surprising option decision I’ve ever seen)

  Jays could realistically pay Tucker, Bregman, Cease, Diaz … and frankly, I expect them to go hard after multiple big names. They’ve been in on Ohtani, Soto, Sasaki (different type of big fish) and more.

  Getting some of those top names to sign is a lot easier now that they were just a few pitches away from a WS title.

Tim Dierkes

• I will have to find it but one time I interviewed JP Ricciardi and he talked about how the typical free agent does not want to go to Toronto, so they had to overpay to get A.J. Burnett there.  Based on the Bieber decision and everything coming out about the 2025 clubhouse, what Ricciardi said seems very much not the case.
• could be in here.  Don’t have time to read https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2014/02/opt-out-clauses-mlb.html

Blue Jays fan

• Were you guys shocked that Shane Bieber didn’t opt out? If he wanted to stay in Toronto, why wouldn’t he opt out and resign with the jays for more?

Steve Adams

• That was also probably 15 years ago? Fair to say some things have probably changed, haha
• Literal most shocking option decision I can recall.

Tim Dierkes

• Yeah, as Steve said, we were indeed shocked.  There were a lot of “wtf?” texts going around.  We had 5/130 on Bieber.

Steve Adams

• I happened to be texting with a couple other agents (different agencies) about other topics at the time Bieber opted in, and they were dumbfounded
• “Has to be hurt” and “I don’t understand this at all… I don’t care how much you love Toronto” were their immediate replies, ha.

Tim Dierkes

• I have seen some stuff on Twitter with some Jays fans saying, “The national media just not get us!  They shouldn’t be surprised Bieber did this.”  But after doing this for 20 years, we’ve certainly seen players take discounts to stay put, but this is just on a scale that we cannot recall.

Steve Adams

• I hope he’s not hurt.

TxDude

• With the reports being that the Rangers are kind of strapped for money, what moves do you see them making? They need a complete offensive overhaul

Steve Adams

• If Bieber wanted a “discount” to stay in Toronto, he could’ve signed for like … 3/75?
• This is so far beyond a discount

Tim Dierkes

• A couple of us did Arraez with Texas, I put Caratini there.  My assumption is that CY builds the bullpen back up cheaply as he’s had some success with that.
• It’s weird because even cutting payroll, they’ve got room to spend.  But the “we’re not spending” vibes seem pretty strong so I guess none of us put them on a major FA.

Steve Adams

• It’s not reports … president of baseball operations Chris Young plainly said they lacked payroll certainty this offseason.I think the Rangers are going to move on from Adolis Garcia and Jonah Heim. I expect them to be very open to trading Josh Jung and Jake Burger.

  That said, their payroll is projected for $197MM at RosterResource right now. That’s already down from last year’s $225MM, and that still includes Garcia and Heim for a combined (projected) $18MM. I think they’re both as good as gone.

  So there’s room for them to make some additions and still keep payroll down a bit.

  Arraez does fit there and would change the offensive identity. I think they add a new catcher (Ryan Jeffers? Victor Caratini? Even JT Realmuto is possible) and move away from a lot of this low-OBP, big-power archetype they’ve sort of begun cultivating (whether by design or happenstance)

John

• Will the Royals make a bigger splash in the trade market over free agency?

Tim Dierkes

• It does seem that they would like to trade an SP for a corner OF bat.  But bringing Yaz back or doing something on that scale in FA makes sense too.

Steve Adams

• Their system just isn’t that great, and I’m not as big on moving a big league SP as Tim and (I think) Darragh have been when suggesting someone like Kris Bubic.I had the Royals on Gleyber Torres before he received the QO. Since I think he’ll accept, I moved Jorge Polanco from SF to KC.

  I find the Royals totally viable for a reunion with Yaz or a run at Cedric Mullins (who, again, should be on the list, Tim )

• Grisham, too, though not sure they’ll spend that aggressively.

Tim Dierkes

• Cedric Mullins was a point of debate, believe it or not.  Most of us couldn’t get him past one year and $10 mil.  I assume Steve was furious when the Rays declined Fairbanks’ option and Mullins was bumped

Steve Adams

• Don’t love the player. But someone’s going to pay him more than we would. The end.

Vince

• Your estimate of $400m/11y for Tucker seems high to me, maybe because I’m not as familiar with him, because he doesn’t seem to have the impact of other players who have reached that number.  How much of his estimated guarantee is due to the weakness of the FA class?
  Also, for Steve, you

Tim Dierkes

• I don’t think weakness of the FA class had much to do with it.  Tucker is a very good player.  The idea that he might sign the fourth-largest contract in MLB history is deceiving, because of inflation.
• I am in the Chicago area and saw firsthand how weird and disappointing Tucker’s second half was.  I don’t feel great about the 400 mil prediction, but also did not have the conviction to put him lower.  My colleagues helped make his case and it remains strong.
• I wrote some stuff in my mailbag about how I can see Tucker’s market failing to materialize, but at that point I hadn’t given enough consideration to the Blue Jays.  I think he has the Jays, Dodgers, and Yankees as three fairly likely big market suitors.  If for whatever reason two of those take different paths, Tucker will not get 400 mil, in my estimation.

Steve Adams

• Tucker is 29 and does everything well. He’s had a couple pretty fluky injuries that were exacerbated certainly by Houston’s … less-than-stellar … track record with managing injuries (and, to a lesser extent, that also happened in Chicago).He probably is the quietest superstar in the game, but Tucker is a bankable source of 4-5 WAR every season even including the past two injury-shortened years. A full season of a healthy Tucker is probably comfortably worth 6+ wins. Teams pay for youth.

  Tim wanted him lower, and I can’t say I’ll be shocked if he signs for “only” 350 or so, but this player is so, so good, and with teams like the Giants, Jays, Yankees, Phillies and Dodgers all standing as viable landing spots, yeah I think he gets a mega-deal.

  As Tim is referencing, focusing on the trade market for bats or simply prioritizing pitching for some of his major potential suitors could throw a wrench into the 400+ contract, but I don’t see any real way he signs for under 300

• And I tend to prefer erring on the side of aggression when it comes to the very top free agent(s)

Tim Dierkes

• I did come in at 400 mil in my independent Tucker prediction.  But when we all kind of landed there as a consensus, I stress-tested that a lot because I’m really not sure.  I have also written in my mailbag, Excel Sports Management hasn’t really had guys where taking the Boras path of three years and $120MM with two opt-outs was chosen.  We don’t know if Excel would accept something in that 300 range for Kyle.

Astros fan

• How did you come up with Verlanders salary? To me his age makes him too large of a risk to decline or be injured to give him that much.

Steve Adams

• He just got 15MM coming off a 91-inning season with a 5+ ERA
• Then he went out and had this season, complete with a monster finish. He has to have earned a raise (or he should have). I suggested putting him at the QO value and we all more or less agreed.

Tim Dierkes

• I started at 16 there and I assume a few of the guys talked me up.  But we have seen some very mediocre guys get 15.  Verlander had a really nice finish, he’s a famous future HOF, he’s slowly driving toward 300 wins.  Ultimately I felt like his stature meant he should indeed get more than a million bucks over Alex Cobb.

Steve Adams

• Also, and this is silly, but $22MM just … isn’t much in today’s MLB climate.

Tim Dierkes

• Whether that’s 18, 20, 22, I don’t know, but sub-18 does feel wrong to me.

Steve Adams

• Certainly not on a one-year deal

The Fonz

• Does the weird F. Valdez incident from earlier this year impact his free agency?

Tim Dierkes

• Our team voted no on that.

Steve Adams

• I don’t have much to add beyond that. I’ve been asked and answered this in basically every chat I’ve had on the site since the cross-up.Framber Valdez is one of the best left-handed pitchers (best pitchers, period) in the game and I don’t think one perceived scuffle (if it was even that) with a teammate is going to cost him significantly in free agency. He’s too talented.

Joe

• Why didn’t the Rays pick up Fairbanks’ option and trade him?

Tim Dierkes

• My assumption is that no one wanted to trade for him at 11 mil.  The Rays could’ve dealt him just to get out of the buyout, as the Cubs did with Kittredge.  From what I’ve seen on Twitter, Fairbanks’ reputation outstrips his current abilities.  This was the first healthy season of his career, he’s at 97 and not 99 these days, and his K% has been average the last few years.  He’d a fine reliever, that’s about it.

Steve Adams

• I like him a bit more than Tim, but he is more name value than performance/positive trend lines right now. He was healthier this season but also took notable steps back in velo, K%, swinging-strike rate, etc.I won’t be surprised if Fairbanks ends up around 1/11 or the 2/18 we predicted. But teams are wary about plopping down significant expenditures on day one of the offseason if they’re at or close to market value. We’ve seen this in the past. Colin Rea last year. Brad Hand with Cleveland a few winters back.

  I suspect Fairbanks wasn’t viewed as having much surplus value, and the Rays preferred to just pay the $1MM buyout as opposed to exercising and then finding minimal trade value as the offseason wore on

Guest

• Who makes the final call on the years/$ amounts? Are each of you assigned certain players and you get the final call?

Steve Adams

• At that point, you either have a sub-$100MM payroll with a reliever (possibly a declining one) taking up $11MM of it. Or you have to eat more than the $1MM buyout just to trade him for a negligible return.

Tim Dierkes

• I make the final call, but I like to come to something close to a consensus.  On certain players we will have one dissenter, but mostly all four were at least begrudgingly on board with what we put out there.

Salary floor

• Any belief a salary floor will be included in the next CBA? I could see that greatly impacting free agency

Steve Adams

• We collaborate and try to have a consensus. But at the end of the day, Tim started MLBTR and he writes the checks. If he wants to be wrong about Robert Suarez getting three years — just like he was wrong about Robert Stephenson getting four years 🙂 — that’s his right!
• (Tim has also very correctly pushed several guys over the line against pushback in the past. I’m just needling him here haha)

Tim Dierkes

• I feel better than ever about Robert Suarez getting three years.  If he gets three and 40+, Anthony Franco has to buy me a Robert Suarez shirsey of his new team.  So in my mind that’s already in my wardrobe

Steve Adams

• I’ve got framed James McCann and Travis d’Arnaud shirseys in my office
• The TDA one is a Dodgers shirsey! (He had one PA as a Dodger)

Tim Dierkes

• yes!  At least I came through on those.  We had to add an apostrophe to the custom TDA one
• anyway, the salary floor question.
• I don’t think that can happen without a cap.  In talking with the team, we do not think a cap happens in this CBA.

Steve Adams

• I don’t see a salary floor and don’t think it would have the intended effect most fans seem to.

Trader Jim

• When you guys make these predictions, how much weight do you put on a team’s proclivity to not want to give up draft pick compensation?

Tim Dierkes

• For me, if the GM basically said they wouldn’t sign a qualified FA (which I’m guessing the union would take issue with), then I’d account for that.  Otherwise I didn’t let it be an overriding factor on a fit I liked.
• To be fair, there are a lot of FA for whom I think the QO will be a problem: Gallen, Imanaga, Grisham, maybe King and Woodruff.  Torres so much so that we predicted he will accept

Steve Adams

• In terms of market value, a Tucker/Bichette, zero thought. The QO has repeatedly proven not to be a major deterrent for the top stars. For others, it matters greatly. We had Gleyber signing a three-year deal, but as soon as he got the QO, we all said on our group text “So Gleyber accepts? Right? Right.”Team-wise, yeah, it has to come into play a bit. There are clubs who seem loath to sign a qualified FA or who, at least in one specific offseason, kind of signal that they’re really against it in the short-term.

Sparky

• On Bregman, the piece said “There seems to be an expectation the Red Sox will get it done”, yet all four of you predicted he’d go elsewhere. Can you clarify?

Tim Dierkes

• Interesting contrast.  Part of that might be me writing that Bregman thing several weeks ago.  But it’s also that in this case I think the media might be wrong

Steve Adams

• Yeah, Tim wrote that player up and I agreed with the sentiment … a lot of the Boston media is treating Bregman as something the Sox have to get done.I don’t think they will. This hasn’t been in Breslow’s wheelhouse to date, and I think other clubs are going to more heavily prioritize him. Boston has other in-house infield options that are highly regarded, even after disappointing rookie showings. Mayer, Campbell. They could sign a shorter-term option. They also badly need starting pitching.

  Granted, I picked them to sign Alonso, so I’m very much talking out of both sides of my mouth here, but I think the Alonso contract will come in much lighter and feel like the Sox (or whoever) gave him a bit of a soft landing, whereas I expect Bregman to be more genuinely in demand and command top-of-market dollars.

cpins

• I know the projected landing spots are as much fun as meaningful but Woodruff to the Mets got me thinking about a larger issue.  If they trade for a frontline starter wouldn’t they want to avoid the 2 pick/$1m IFA penalty since the trade would deplete the farm?  2nd thought:  Is the comp penalty price for a Woodruff greater than the likely prospect cost for a trade for say Alcantara?

Tim Dierkes

• My assumption is that the Mets will only bring in one front-rotation type.  If Woodruff qualifies as that for Stearns, then giving up the second and fifth round picks and the international pool money is part of the calculus.  3/66 is a fairly light contract if Woody can pitch like he did in the regular season this year and most importantly, by healthy for the most part come October (which of course he was not in 2023 and ’25).
• The Alcantara price I think would require players with relative certainty and proximity to the Majors.  It just seems like a different kind of way of paying than forfeiting picks, most of which bust
• You don’t want to continually wipe out all your draft picks, it’s a numbers game, but a lot of fifth rounders don’t become anything
• I assume the three of us picking the Mets on Woodruff couldn’t resist the Stearns connection and his tendency thus far to not sign SP to long-term deals.  We sometimes grasp at straws a little bit to decide why this team should get this SP and this other one that one

Steve Adams

• Not convinced the Marlins trade Sandy this winter. At all. Though it’s possible enough that he ranked prominently on the Trade Candidate list. He will 100% be talked about and sought after all offseason.It gets a little murky, answering questions like this. You’re making short-term talent acquisition concessions by signing Woodruff. You’re making a different kind of concession to add Alcantara (or another veteran SP on the trade market), but there’s the implied future value of making him a QO years down the line as well, if all goes according to plan.

  More to the specific Mets question … their farm is great. They can stomach the loss of two picks and some international money. And it’s feasible they can get some extra picks in the future, pending possible QOs for Clay Holmes, David Peterson etc.

Tim Dierkes

• My last thought on Woodruff is that he’s gonna need a clean physical. The late lat strain was likened to a hamstring strain.  I ain’t a doctor, so we will see

BurnerK

• Did everyone think Dombrowskis Flex statements on Schwarber was enough to scare everyone away from bidding or what?

Tim Dierkes

• I don’t believe free agency typically works that way, and the true flex would’ve been to just sign Schwarber to an extension.  That did not happen so clearly Kyle has some interest in seeing what’s out there based on whatever overtures the Phillies have made thus far

Steve Adams

• One more Woodruff point from me: I’d be surprised if he accepts. I think the very fact that the Brewers made the QO suggests they believe the injury is not major. They’re already paying him a $10MM buyout, so this is Milwaukee of all teams risking a $32MM payout to a pitcher. Yikes.
• Dombrowski is as aggressive a GM as there is when he sets his sights on someone. I think the Phils just love Schwarber and feel he’s the guy they cannot let get away

Mariners

• Do you see a world where Alonso signs in Miami?

Tim Dierkes

• Mostly no.  If his market is so bad that he’s doing another two-year deal, and the Mets have already moved on, then I guess I can almost slightly see that world if I squint

Steve Adams

• Personally, no. I think it’s too big a financial risk and I also don’t think this is a skill set that president of bb ops Peter Bendix values highly
• Oh true, in that scenario, sure.
• But then you’d have a bunch of unexpected bidders in the fray since there’s no QO this time around

Ethan

• Do think the MLBPA will step in like last year with the Athletics and threaten a grievance if a team doesn’t increase spending? The Marlins come to mind for me.

Tim Dierkes

• Yes, but those grievances are weird.  They never seem to result in real penalty and I think dismissing them just becomes another CBA bargaining chip.  If we’re going to say teams need to spend 150% of their revenue sharing, then the players need to fight for strong penalties when they don’t.  Also I’d really love for revenue sharing info to not be under lock and key as it is!
• I can see why MLB has locked that down though.  If we saw all the revenue sharing figures in a concrete way each year, there would be more pressure on recipients to spend it on players

Steve Adams

• I think the A’s were a special case. They’d lost revenue-sharing in the past and only had their rev sharing rights reinstated under the past CBA. Then they went right back to basement-level CBT numbers.If you look at the Marlins, they ran an $86MM CBT number this year, which the MLBPA probably hates — but they’re also already signaling plans to spend some. Also, from 2022-24, they were between $105MM and $139MM in CBT tallies every year.

  The A’s were like 3-4 straight years at $85MM or less. That’s the difference, I would assume.

Refresh, Please

• Of the four of you—which had the most correct last year and what was that number?

Tim Dierkes

• https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/mlbtr-apps/free_agent_contest_leaderboa…
• Steve led the team with a robust .188 average on 48 picks

Steve Adams

• No one’s taking my crown this year baby
• Gunning for a beefy .200 batting average

Tim Dierkes

• Out of I think 5,000 people, one guy hit over .229

Steve Adams

• The champ is here.
• Now please never look at the prior offseasons
• Just trust that I am always in the lead and certainly that I’ve never been at the bottom of the pile.

Mike

• Do you see the Yankees possibly signing Bichette?

Tim Dierkes

• I don’t think they need to spend big money on a non-SS.  Long shot for me

Steve Adams

• Don’t love the fit but I understand it. Volpe is a question mark, only one more year of Jazz at 2B, lots of talk about needing a new offensive approach.I still don’t see it.
• Side note on that
• The Yankees are one of like 7 teams where all the talk is about making more contact, getting on base more, moving away from such a boom-or-bust approach, etc.That bodes well for Bichette. And for Tucker!

ERS

• What was your debate like that re: Murakami? I get the big power, but the Ks are worrying enough that I’d be very wary of giving him anything over, like, 4 years. There is a legitimate chance he is not a viable major league hitter if he is striking out upwards of 33%.

Tim Dierkes

• I’ll mostly cede to Steve’s memory on this.  I came in at 5/100, we talked ourselves up to 208, and then we came back down a bit to 180.  For the most part it was about 80 grade power and youth you can rarely find on the market, but the risk is real.
• We have regularly come in low on star Japanese free agents, so this was probably an attempted correction on that as well

Steve Adams

• Agree wholeheartedly. I threw out Miguel Sano as a possible worst-case scenario here.That said, we see teams make questionable nine-figure commitments to more established guys all the time. Chris Davis, Javy Baez, Nick Castellanos, Patrick Corbin — the list goes on.

  Murakami is so young with such rare power than I think a team will dream on him. I also make an effort to chat with MLB scouts who focus on NPB/KBO every offseason when it comes to these guys, and I didn’t hear anything so negative or worrisome on Murakami to make me think he’d come in with a short-term deal or something under 100.

Tim Dierkes

• Some high K guys become absolute monsters.  Some do not.  NPB projections are the hardest

Matt

• Do you see the Twins signing any real free agents? After mostly sitting out of the market the last few years, I feel like they now have some wiggle room to add a little salary with Correa gone. Am I too optimistic that the Pohlads will spend money?

Steve Adams

• Murakami is so young, it’s easy to see a team thinking it’s getting Schwarber-lite, with a smidge of defensive value, and shelling out for that.

Tim Dierkes

• Classic Steve question.  Once I decided they didn’t need a top 50 FA, I focused on other teams

Steve Adams

• I’m 40 years old and have spent all but 4.5 years of my life (2014-18) living in Minnesota. Nothing in the Pohlad history gives me an iota of confidence they’ll spend money this winter.They absolutely have the capacity to. They have like $93MM projected as a payroll, and that’s before they non-tender Trevor Larnach and (likely) trade Ryan Jeffers. They could get wild — gut payroll at the deadline, add a bunch of MLB-ready guys like Abel, Bradley, Roden, etc. then turn around and spend the savings/deal from one of the best farms in MLB (that’ll get better with a likely top-5 pick next year) to try to get right back in contention!

  They also, almost certainly, will do none of that.

Tim Dierkes

• haha I enjoyed that answer

Steve Adams

• I would love any team to engineer that kind of chaos. I love offseason chaos. I badly want it, not as a childhood Twins fan or current Minnesota resident.
• I just want insanity. The Twins could do it. I have no faith they will.

Tim Dierkes

• agreed.  at MLBTR we always, always want offseason chaos.  Unexpected stuff rules, that’s all we’re really rooting for

Cards guy

• the cards sign any free agents at all ?

Tim Dierkes

• seems like they’ll add some SP innings and a veteran reliever.  I had them on Adrian Houser before we cut him from the list, although he doesn’t really feel like a Bloom type signing.  I think they’ll do low-level value stuff in FA this winter.

Steve Adams

• I almost gave them Giolito but that feels like too heavy an expenditure. I do think they’ll sign some cheap innings and maybe make an upside play or two in the bullpen.But I also expect them to trade Donovan, Gray and Romero at the very least. Probably Nolan Gorman. I don’t think this is a team that’s going to make any exciting win-now moves.

Carl

• I saw where you guys had the Braves active on quite a few of the mid tier guys on your list. Do you think they make a push for one of the top starting pitchers similar to the Nola pursuit a couple of years ago? If so who would that be?

Tim Dierkes

• I think they already have high ceiling starters and just need some semi-reliable innings, hence my Bassitt pick there.  If I’m wrong, Cease is the on-the-nose pick since he’s from GA.  That’d surprise me, but like you said, there’s a bit of precedent for AA trying for a top FA SP

Steve Adams

• Nola is the only time the Braves have ever even flirted with the idea of spending long-term on a free agent. I can’t view him as anything other than a special case where Anthopoulos and others in the group loved that specific player.I expect them to be strongly in the mix to re-sign Kim and Iglesias, and I gave them Brad Keller as their reliever-to-starter conversion du jour.
• (Also a Georgia native!)

Tim Dierkes

• It’s kinda funny to me that Nola was AA’s one exception guy, and two years later that contract looks really rough.  Five years left

Guest

• How do you think about Zack Littell becoming an A?

Tim Dierkes

• I feel just fine about it, especially if the A’s pony up for a third year as Anthony Franco tried pushing for.  Pffff Anthony, so silly
• If I’m Zack, I don’t care if I need to pitch at a Little League field, if I can get 3/30 or so

Steve Adams

• Anthony loves Zack Littell
• Well, no
• Anthony just thinks a team will pay Zack Littell and is more ambivalent toward him than the rest of us, who think he’s like a fifth starter.

Peter Man

• Is Cody Bellinger and option for a return to the dodgers? I believe Dodgers need to trade Teo, maybe to the Phillies?

Steve Adams

• Agree with Tim on that last point — max out, dude.
• The Phillies have been trying desperately to undo the Castellanos mistake for years. Trading for Teo would be the funniest thing ever.

Tim Dierkes

• I just can’t see the Dodgers re-engaging with Belli in the $140-160 mil range.  If somehow the bottom drops out on his market again, then maaaaaybe they can kind of view him as a different, healthy guy and throw him a short-term deal
• For most of October, we had Belli at 5/125.  I was looking at it yesterday and just couldn’t stomach it, so we pushed to 140.  The FA market spat on this guy once, then the trade market kind of did.  The question is whether Boras would “settle” for 125 or we’d get yet another round of Belli opt-outs

Steve Adams

• And yeah, I’m out on Bellinger/Dodgers as a viable reunion. The breakup there was so bad, both in terms of on-field performance and then the weird comments after the fact where there was finger-pointing about his injuries and how they were handled and all parties kind of had to publicly say “Oh we didn’t mean that we’re all good here”I don’t remember the specifics, but it just doesn’t feel like something that’ll be revisited.

Tim Dierkes

• I wonder about the psychological effect of three years with two opt-outs.  To keep trying to prove yourself and having the will he/won’t he each winter.  It’d mess with me man

JW

• Every year the Cubs seem to wait to choose from the fell-between-the-cracks guys. Who do you think they’re hoping to see in that group this year?

Steve Adams

• Think we already kind of saw that with Flaherty
• I was surprised he took 1/20, but eventually you probably just get sick of being a free agent and hearing why teams don’t want you haha

Tim Dierkes

• On the Cubs, I suppose Bregman again, maybe King, Gallen, D Williams?

Steve Adams

• Feels like a Tim/Chicago question here. Hah
• I can see any of those pitchers. They’re not paying Bregman
• Helsley maybe

Tim Dierkes

• If the Cubs simply don’t want to do the long-term SP deals, then lying in wait to see if King/Gallen will take two years seems like something they’d do

Steve Adams

• Fairbanks
• Agree on that

Tim Dierkes

• That said, the Cubs could’ve had Bregman by putting an opt-out after Year 1 and they did not, perhaps feeling burned by the Belli thing.  So I’m not positive they want to keep doing that

ERS

• If Giolito had received the QO, would you guys have predicted him to accept?

Steve Adams

• I think so

Tim Dierkes

• We were doing a late debate on that situation but yes, I think we leaned that way bc him being out on the market with a QO would’ve been really rough for him

Dahntahn Pittsburgh

• Who should Bob Nutting pursue at a high-ceiling level in free agency?

Steve Adams

• Ending with an elbow scare is tough, and even throughout his awesome 20-start stretch to close the season, he wasn’t missing bats anywhere near his prior levels. He wasn’t even league-average in that regard.
• “Pirates owner Bob Nutting” and “high-ceiling free agent” do not compute

Tim Dierkes

• I don’t really know how to answer this, haha

Steve Adams

• If you’re at all a believer in a potential Cedric Mullins bounceback, then I can see that

Tim Dierkes

• usually the high ceiling deals are for SPs, they don’t really need that.  So I guess Okamoto could be an answer

Steve Adams

• (I’m not really, but maybe some folks are!)

Jared

• Will the Rockies sign any real free agents this offseason? Do you think the addition of Paul DePodesta will affect the offseason strategy bring more aggressive or conservative than usual?

Steve Adams

• Think the Rockies are going to be at the beginning of a very, very long rebuild both in terms of their roster and the infrastructure of the organization itself.I don’t see them doing anything more than short-term pieces who could maybe be flipped at the deadline.

Tim Dierkes

• That will be fascinating to find out.  My guess is that DePo will come in and tell the Rockies they suck and it ain’t getting fixed through free agency.  But I also assume he’s going to shake things up in a lot of ways in Colorado and that should be fun.

Brewer Fan

• Brewers have anymore flexibility this year with some contracts coming off the books and Chourio’s big numbers not kicking in yet? Think there is any all-in moves they could explore? I know I know… they wont.

Steve Adams

• Yoan Moncada? Luis Rengifo? That sort of bat (re: Rockies)

Tim Dierkes

• I had Gleyber in Milwaukee before he got the QO
• A Quintana-esque signing if Peralta and Woody leave. A trade for Paredes maybe. Moncada works there. Geno was my long shot pick for them

Steve Adams

• Eh, Hoskins is off the books sure, but they’re also paying big a big arb raise to Contreras and now have an unexpected (but very welcome) semi-notable $8MM or so to pay Andrew Vaughn following that hilarious breakout. That’ll eat up a fair bit of the payroll that’s coming off the books.I don’t expect them to spend much. Operate on the trade market, bring in some sneaky value free agents. The typical Brewers playbook.

  Not a bad thing. If it ain’t broke…….

• Turang also arb-eligible for the first time. Megill gets a raise. Payroll already looks similar to 2025.

Jim C

• You’re describing Bichette as a non-SS…is it a done deal that he moves to 2B?

Tim Dierkes

• More that we feel he only has a year or two max at the position, or something of a backup SS/starting 2B role

Steve Adams

• Yeah. No one’s signing Bo with the expectation that he’s their shortstop in even 2029, let alone like 2032.

DC’s Finest

• Name one FA and one trade who Paul Toboni could get this offseason

Steve Adams

• You’re signing the bat. And the youth. (Bichette)

Tim Dierkes

• For the Nats FA, I’ll say Caratini. The trade…eh, I’ll make Steve do it?
• I’m not sure this is the right time to trade Gore

Nattitude

• The Nats are going to spend big this free agency. Similar to the rangers a few years ago. They have to accelerate the rebuild

Tim Dierkes

• That I do not see

Steve Adams

• I don’t expect the Nats to be that aggressive. Could see Caratini, sure. Maybe take an upside swing at Rengifo, Moncada … hope for a Hoskins bounceback?I think it’s 100% the right time to trade Gore. And CJ Abrams.
• A trade acquisition…… hard when they’re rebuilding

ERS

• As a general question, how do you balance what you would personally give to a player versus what you expect the market to give?

Steve Adams

• You’re looking at younger guys, maybe who’ve fallen out of favor in their current org.
• Triston Casas to the Nats. book it

Tim Dierkes

• There are some, like Keith Law, whose list is entirely about what he would give to the player.  Ours is almost entirely about what we expect the market to give, but certainly our “man I would not do this” creeps in a bit.
• We have been doing this for 20 years.  Every year I think there are fewer GMs on whom we can pin our “bad” FA contracts.  Which means they’re just gonna happen less, as we saw with Alonso last winter

Steve Adams

• I think in general, we’re also kind of conditioned to think at least loosely in the same vein as today’s front offices. We sit and stare at this stuff all day everyday for years on end. In 2009, I probably would not have been on the “Hell yeah pay Dylan Cease and Devin Williams despite terrible ERAs” team, but now it’s more, “Oh I can totally see why teams would completely disregard the ERA and pay for future projection.”Maybe they won’t with those two specifically, but just using them as examples.

  There are still times where we have to plug our nose and pick someone to get paid even though we’d never personally do it. Sometimes those are right. (Madison Bumgarner)

  Sometimes, we predict a long-term deal for Pete Alonso much to our own chagrin, and then we end up wishing we’d have just predicted the short-term deal we all thought he was going to have to take.

cap

• I don’t really understand why a salary cap is such a huge issue for the union. It’s true that it would limit the megadeals, like Ohtani’s, Soto’s and perhaps Tucker’s this offseason, but if it’s coupled with much higher minimum salaries and stronger incentives for the low-spenders to increase spending, then it’s not obvious to me that a salary cap would be harmful to most players. A significant raise in minimum salary alone would be very impactful for many players, even if it doesn’t matter too much to the superstars.

Tim Dierkes

• Please don’t take this response as condescending, that’s not my intention.  Sometimes it is hard to convey tone in a live chat.  So let me start there
• I have an opinion that there are two books that are required reading for any salary cap talk (no idea if the questioner has read them of course)
• One is Marvin Miller’s book.  $14 on Amazon.  The other is John Helyar’s Lords of the Realm
• That history, of why the MLB has a strong union and how that came to be at least up until the 1994 strike, I think is crucial in understanding the union stance on a cap
• Your points are not wrong in that perhaps there could be a system that keeps the player pool of revenue the same and transfers some from superstars to young guys or the rank and file. I think it’s a trust issue more than anything.  Will the players’ % of revenue then move backward over the next few CBAs?  Will teams include all relevant revenue in an honest way?
• When I started MLBTR, I did not know who Marvin Miller was at all.  Ya gotta start there I think.

Fat Guy

• I see the Twins signing Tucker for league minimum but he gets a lifetime of free Juicy Lucy’s. Think he’d take that deal?

Steve Adams

• Not a ton to add — and not sure if Tim will keep going here

Tim Dierkes

• what even is that
• we’re gonna wrap at 11, so couple more

Q

• This one’s for Tim – why did you select the Cubs for Imai? How do you think he could fit in their rotation? And for both you and Steve – what are realistic expectations for his first year in MLB?

Steve Adams

• But real quick, once the cap is in, it’s in. The league will spend every subsequent negotiation session trying to tighten the vice and shrink the players’ piece of the pie. It might start out OK, but deteriorate quickly. Josh Erickson, who runs our hockey site, was talking about that a lot at our last meetup
• Tim, c’mon — a juicy lucy is a stuffed cheeseburger. Come to Minnesota. You’re like a 45-minute flight or 6-hour drive away

Tim Dierkes

• I picked Imai for the Cubs bc they have a strong Japanese presence, he’s younger than other FA starters, he can add some velo to the rotation, and you can dream on him becoming a #2. Whether they feel that way I have no idea
• hmm first season…150 innings, sub-4 ERA, 25 K%?

Steve Adams

• Imai has the widest range of opinions on basically any of the prominent NPB names who could (we still don’t 100% know he’s being posted) come over. I frankly have zero clue what to expect. He’s the hardest thrower in NPB. I’ve seen plenty of “He’s No. 2 SP!” reports and also talked to a scout who said his breaking stuff won’t miss bats and he’s a 4th starter or high-leverage reliever
• I’m going to take one question here and give a very simple answer
• (Tim has been selecting them this whole time)

JT

• Didn’t a certain writer in here call Madison Bumgarner a third starter a couple months before he signed that massive deal and got all kinds of hate for it? Hmmmm

Steve Adams

• Please actually be Jeff Todd
• That is all.

Tim Dierkes

• if there’s one thing we can all agree on, it’s that we miss Jeff Todd

Steve Adams

• If so, hey buddy. Miss you. Text or email us some time.(Back to Tim selecting questions)

Tim Dierkes

• I don’t know how you even found that, there are a million questions in the queue

Steve Adams

• I adore Jeff Todd

ERS

• As a Sox fan, I’m a bit confused where the high demand for Bregman will come from. He’s an aging player, not an elite hitter, and has limited power. I’d bring him back for something like 4 years/110M, but anything beyond that will end up being quite a bad deal, I think. I am pretty concerned he will fall off a cliff offensively, like Arenado. Granted, he has better contact skills than Arenado, but Arenado also had much more raw power.

Tim Dierkes

• last one!
• Umm yes, I definitely get that. we are assuming he has upped his value a bit since last winter. I don’t see the Cubs in on him, and can easily see the Tigers doing something else.  Red Sox, Jays, not quite sure who else is bidding here. I did the contract anyway in picking “the field” in a sense, but I get it.

Steve Adams

• Almost all major FA contracts end up being bad deals. To sign an in-demand free agent, you are inherently saying you will pay him more than the rest of the market deems wise.Bregman is a good defensive third baseman with elite contact skills, above-average power and (thanks to a somewhat resurgent walk rate in ’25) quality on-base skills.

  He is also in the Kyle Schwarber/Eric Hosmer mold of “everyone absolutely loves this person, and his teammates would run through a wall for him” clubhouse mold. That sort of thing gets overstated at times, but with specific players it’s very clear that teams will absolutely pay more for the leadership.

  I also just think he’s a pretty safe 3-WAR floor for the next few years and disagree that Arenado had more raw power. Arenado has never hit the ball hard. Below-average hard-hit and exit velos every year.

• Granted, that’s also true of Bregman, but not to the same extent.
• He was huge in the first half, pre-quad injury as well, and think he answered a lot of doubts that clouded his market last time around. Plus no QO this winter.

Tim Dierkes

• I know Steve would make some good points there.
• That’s a wrap for this chat.  I genuinely enjoyed seeing all these questions and answering as many as we could.  Here’s to a wild and fun offseason!

Steve Adams

• Seconded
• Thanks for the discourse and for the support. We’re so lucky to do what we do. Hoping for a great offseason!

Nido

• Could Nido have earned a one year MLB contract rather than sign with the Tigers for triple A?  Seems like a good player

Mark P

• Nido is a career backup at best.  He clearly seems ok with his situation in Detroit even if it’s being the third man on the depth chart.  Taking an early contract now and giving himself peace of mind over the offseason might also be preferable to having to grind out months of waiting and seeing before finally landing another minors deal months later

IMissHelton

• Do the Rockies keep dragging their feet through the offseason? Most other teams have hired their GM/manager tandem for the future while the Rox are still “mulling their options”

Mark P

• Remember, this is seemingly the first time Dick Monfort has ever had a real GM search, after just promoting from within for the other two hires of his ownership tenure.  Makes sense that it might take a bit longer than usual, though given how much the new GM will have to do with overhauling the Rockies, every offseason day is critical.

Wisconsin O’s

• Any chance the O’s sign a big rh bat > Bo B? Please please say yes.

Mark P

• Bichette isn’t a fit on a team already loaded in the infield, and I don’t expect the Orioles to spend at the highest ends of the free agent market.  But, they should be adding some kind of righty balance to the lineup.

Mike B

• Since the trade deadline, I have had this idea of the Phillies trading Nick Castellanos (plus a mid-level prospect) to the Pirates for Bryan Reynolds (the advanced metrics seem to suggest Reynolds down season was just some bad luck, as he was still in line with his career numbers for Barrel Rate, XBA, XSLG, and XWOBA – among others). Essentially, I am banking on Pittsburgh wanting to be as cheap as possible (not a bad bet with that ownership group) and saving them $50ish million in the long term. Can you please just tell me I’m crazy so I can stop considering this as a possibility?

Mark P

• While I don’t doubt that the Pirates might deal Reynolds under the right circumstance, this particular move doesn’t make any sense for them.  Pittsburgh should be trying to add hitting, not take on a limited player like Castellanos who seems to be on the downswing.

Chaim Bloom

• Where do you see me trading donovan to?

Mark P

• I covered all things Donovan in a “looking for a trade match” post earlier this week.  Long story short, he is a reasonable fit on at least half the league, so it’s hard to pick a particular top suitor out of a very large field at this point

  https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2025/10/looking-for-a-match-in-a-brenda…

Padres

• If they hire Puljols will Niebla leave?

Mark P

• Only Niebla would know the answer to this question, though he is under contract for 2026.  I doubt that the Padres would want to lose him as pitching coach, and one would imagine Pujols/Hundley/whoever would also want to keep Niebla in the fold.

  I noted this in a post the other day, but it kind of works against Niebla’s candidacy that the Padres might just prefer him as the pitching coach.  Since if he’s elevated to manager, then the team suddenly has another big hole to fill on the coaching staff.

• Now, being manager obviously doesn’t mean that Niebla can’t still speak with the pitchers or give advice.  But the Padres might prefer the “if it ain’t broke…” approach

B Han

• Seems like one of the most logical trades this offseason will be Castellanos for Arenado, with maybe a few minor prospects switching teams. Your thoughts?

Mark P

• While Arenado would be more helpful to the Phillies than Castellanos, the 2026 version of Nolan Arenado doesn’t seem to be too likely of a boost for a team with World Series aspirations.

Natitude

• What are your thoughts on the Nationals going so young in their hires for the front office and head coach?

Mark P

• It made me feel old, haha

  Washington’s clearly looking for some fresh perspectives, perhaps with the idea that Rizzo/Martinez were too old-school in their approaches.  Time will tell if the changes work out, since Toboni has a lot to do to get the Nats on track.

Mike Maddux

• Do you know any extra details on why he chose an organization like the Angels? This team is in total dysfunction so I’m curious why he would leave a situation like Texas that doesn’t seem to have any dysfunction.

Mark P

• Your guess is as good as mine.  It’s strange to think that Maddux might immediately have more job security than Kurt Suzuki in Anaheim, given Suzuki’s unusual one-year contract.

deGrom

• Do the Rangers try to move deGrom this winter? How much of the contract would they have to eat? Who might bite?

Mark P

• DeGrom is owed $38MM in 2026 and $37MM in 2027, plus there’s a club option for 2028 on a value TBD.  That works out to a $37.5MM tax number for DeGrom, since remember that a traded contract has a tax value based on the AAV remaining on the deal (not the original total value of the deal).
• That’s a high enough tax figure to scare some teams off, to say nothing of DeGrom’s injury history and age.  The counter, of course, is that DeGrom is still a frontline ace if healthy, so it’ll be interesting to see how negotiations could work out or if Texas would be willing to eat anything of the contract.

  There’s also deGrom’s no-trade clause, so this might be a moot point entirely if he doesn’t want to leave Arlington.  The Rangers are trying to both balance the budget and still win in 2026, so while there’s some payroll logic in trading deGrom and selling high, it does leave another hole in their rotation

Im a Werewolf Baby

• Progressive field benefits lefties, but Cleveland’s system is ALL lefties. How have they not balanced out their system? Delauter, Bazzana, Ralphy, Manzardo, Bo, Kwan, Valera, Ingle, etc. Half your games are away and you can’t beat elite lefties in the playoffs with a lineup of all lefties. Has this been a systemic failure of hitting development/approach?

Mark P

• Teams draft for best talent available, without much or any regard to handedness.  In theory, the Guardians can always trade from this list or obtain a RHH elsewhere to get more balance in the big league lineup

Masataka

• Where am I opening day ‘26?

Mark P

• Boston.  More seemingly “untradable” contracts than Yoshida’s have been moved over the years, but barring a total salary dump, why would a team make a move to acquire him?

Chris

• Do the Dbacks sign one or two starters this offseason.  Thoughts on who?

Mark P

• Arizona’s got enough invested in its rotation that someone like Merrill Kelly might be about as high as they’re willing to go in rotation spending.  Acquiring another SP via trade is also a possibility.

Cactusflair

• Do you see the Cardinals potentially non-tendering Lars Nootbaar after his recent double heel surgery

Mark P

• Nope.  Nootbaar is a trade asset either this winter or at the 2026 deadline once he gets healthy, so the Cards won’t cut him loose for nothing.

The Hamm’s Bear

• Do you think the Giants will try to move Jung-Hoo Lee for Pitching? Say of the Joe Ryan variety?

Mark P

• Obtaining Lee doesn’t seem to fit with what the Twins are trying to do (i.e. cut payroll and rebuild).  But, if the Giants are willing to dig deep into their prospect depth chart, Ryan is a possibility, except clubs with better farm systems will have an edge in bidding wars

Cool Names Matter

• I don’t understand Boston signing Schwarber. You’d be paying his and Yoshida’s contract for him to DH. I think they need to be pot-committed to Yoshida at this point – for better or worse.

Mark P

• $36MM remains on Yoshida’s contract.  That’s not a ton of money for a wealthy team like the Red Sox to just eat in releasing him, since it’s very clear he’s the odd man out of the roster mix.

  The questions about how Schwarber ideally fits into Boston’s roster are mitigated by the fact that a) it’s Kyle Schwarber, and b) his power absolutely makes the Sox a better team

Jason

• Who makes more sense at 3B than Suarez for the  Red Sox if Bregman leaves?

Mark P

• Marcelo Mayer, assuming Story remains as the SS and the Sox don’t go with Mayer at 2B
• This isn’t to say that the Sox might not consider someone like Suarez, but finding a regular lineup spot for Mayer is a priority

paul engle

• although the dodgers may win the world series bats like mookie betts max muncy and soeewhat tommie edmond do the dodgers make a run for a really good quality outfielder

Mark P

• OF definitely seems like an offseason priority in Los Angeles.  Can’t rule out a pursuit of a big fish like Tucker, or maybe even something bold like exploring Teoscar Hernandez trades

Mariners

• What percentage chance do you see us resigning naylor?

Mark P

• In a nod to Jerry Dipoto, about 54%
• (While that answer was tongue in cheek, it might actually be true.  Seattle loves Naylor and wants to keep him, but he’ll get lots of attention from other teams around the league, so it could be about a coin flip.)

Addition not subtraction

• The Tigers should be looking to add a #2 SP not trade away an Ace SP for the ‘26 & ‘27 seasons.

Mark P

• Skubal is only controlled through 2026 but I agree with you.  Having a first-rate ace is such a rarity that the Tigers should be viewing 2026 as an all-in type of season.  Trading Skubal would ruin a lot of the momentum this team has built over the last two seasons.

Cubs fan

• the Cubs should have some payroll flexibility.  Do you see them making a big move.  If so, pitching or hitting?

Guest

• Just asking about general activity for the Cubs, what players/type of players do you think they will target this offseason?

Mark P

• I see Chicago spending relatively big on a starting pitcher or a notable position player, and then swinging a trade to obtain whichever of the SP/notable position player they don’t sign.

  The Cubs seem to be working under self-imposed payroll restrictions that keep them from shopping in the upper tier of free agency. But, the team has been willing to open the wallet to a certain extent on particular player.  Given their past deals with Suzuki and Imanaga, I wonder if any of Imai/Okamoto/Murakami would be on Chicago’s radar, and if so, does that make Shaw an expendable trade chip.

Tim

• What’s your thoughts on teams hiring managers with little to no coaching experience? Seems like a trend the past couple of seasons.

Mark P

• Track records as a manager/coach aren’t absolutely necessities to being a manager.  Frankly, getting some fresh faces and fresh ideas into the dugout is a better idea in some cases than hiring some retread skipper.

  To use someone like Vogt as an example, he was already a player who was “a coach on the field” for most of his career anyway, so it made for an easy transition.  That’s the gold standard teams are trying to achieve with these less-experienced hires.  Whereas the Giants and hiring Vitello is a step beyond that, since Vitello (as accomplished as he is in college) has never been involved in an MLB clubhouse before

Marlin fan

• What do you see is doing this offseason? Are we going to actually add or still subtract

Mark P

• The Marlins will be looking to build on what they have, though I’d be surprised if they were particularly aggressive on the trade front (and shocked if they spent notable money in free agency).

  Bendix and ownership are more apt to look at the -89 run differential than they are at the 79 wins.

JDB

• Would a trade centered around W Abreu for Issac Paredes work? Play Paredes at 1B and resign Bregman?

Mark P

• Not a true 1-for-1 deal, but yeah, Abreu-for-Paredes in some kind of package makes some sense for both teams.

Foxy

• Yankee fans seem down on Volpe, but he played through a torn labrum, which seems to be an obvious culprit for his down year.   Do you see him having a bounce back year?  Do you think he will be traded?  I don’t get why many teams insist on playing their injured players instead of just putting them on the DL.

Mark P

• The problem with viewing Volpe as a bounce-back candidate is that what exactly is he bouncing back towards?  His 2025 hitting numbers were about the same as his previous career numbers when healthy.  Obviously it’s fair to assume better health will get his defense back on track, but Volpe has yet to show much of anything at the plate over three years in the majors.

  As I’ve written before, I don’t see the Yankees cutting bait on Volpe entirely.  But, his absence at the start of 2026 opens the door for the team to start thinking about alternatives, whether that’s seeing what Caballero can do or just keeping Volpe/Caballero as pure placeholders until George Lombard is ready

Brian

• Do you really believe Schwarber can get 5yrs on FA market?

Mark P

• His numbers were so good this year and he is such a beloved figure around the game that five years seems plausible.  The Phillies will go above and beyond to try and keep him, so if the rest of the market is only willing to go as high as four years, the Phils will likely stretch to five

Twinkies & choclate milk

• What’s for lunch?

Mark P

• I made the rookie mistake of starting this chat before getting lunch made, so my stomach is rumbling.

Giants Fan

• As a Giants fan I understand starting and relief pitching is a high priority. Do you think the Giants would go after a Bo Bichetter or Kyle Tucker to improve the lineup? Thanks!

Mark P

• Sure, I totally expect SF to at least check in on those two, as they’ve explored so many other big-name free agents in recent years.  Whether they can seal the deal with either remains to be seen — in Bichette’s case in particular, the Giants would only be offering him the 2B job.

Ms fan

• Will there be any payroll flexibility or is this going to just be another cheap offseason?

Mark P

• Dipoto recently said that the starting payoll for 2026 will be around $166MM, so that gives Seattle around $34MM to spend this winter, plus potentially more at the deadline if the M’s are contending as expected.

  Now, to be clear, Dipoto didn’t mention any specific numbers — I’m extrapolating based on his broad comments about spending at the same level as in 2025.  Given how ownership gave Dipoto less than expected in offseason payroll space a couple of years ago, we shouldn’t be assuming that $34MM-ish in spending capacity is in any ways a done deal.  But, you would think that after a successful season and a long playoff run that brought some extra revenues in, ownership is more open to spending to keep the gravy train rolling.

  https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2025/10/mariners-aiming-for-roughly-166…

Jim

• Anything you can say about the A’s?

Mark P

• They’ve done a nice job of rebuilding their lineup, but a lot of work needs to be done on the pitching side.  Those efforts will be trickier given their ballpark situation for the next two years.

Astros fan

• Chances the astros sign cease?

Mark P

• Doubt this happens

Bravos

• What should the Braves be looking at to upgrade and get back to contention?

Mark P

• The middle infield, bullpen, and at least one more starting pitcher.  It would also help immensely if Riley and/or Harris started hitting more consistently again.

DC Fan

• Why do people keep arguing for the Nationals to trade Gore and Abrams?  Do they want to rebuild perpetually?

Mark P

• Gore is controlled through 2027, and Abrams through 2028.  The logic is that since it doesn’t seem like the Nationals will be in contention within the next 2-3 years, the club is better served in the long run by trading one or both of these players now in order to restock the system.

Fans

• What percentage of fans rooting for Blue Jays? Not counting Dodger or Blue Jay fans.

Mark P

• My perception is that baseball fans in general are rooting for Toronto, whether due to the novelty or just because they’re tired of the Dodgers

Guest

• Are the Dodgers likely to seriously pursue Kyle Tucker or are they going to be wary of the potential financial consequences of what may come from the probable 2027 lockout?

Mark P

• The Dodgers will cross that bridge when they come to it, in terms of what a new CBA may or may not change about baseball’s business.

Scott in Mongolia

• Lots of teams are “prioritizing pitching”, but who honestly do you think might sign one of the top FA starters?

Mark P

• The Giants, Red Sox, Blue Jays, and Mets all come to mind immediately.

Mariners

• What chance is Randy, Luis and JP all back this year?

Mark P

• While one can never rule out a bold Mariners trade, my guess is that all three are still in Seattle on Opening Day.  My perception is that the M’s feel they’re already really close, and want to reinforce their core group rather than trade someone away from it to address another need.

Okamoto

• So I am replacing Pete Alonzo on the Mets most likely then?

Mark P

• “Most likely” is a reach.  But, the Mets have a history of pursuing and landing top Japanese players, and as noted earlier, I think Alonso won’t be back in 2026

Sean D

• Do you believe the Twins will trade both Ryan and Lopez this offseason?

Mark P

• More inclined to say one is dealt, but not both.

Mets

• The Mets need a lot of pieces. Is next year realistic or too many holes to fill in one offseason?

Mark P

• As we’ve seen with the Blue Jays and countless other examples, teams can turn things around in pretty quick fashion as long as they have some real talent already in place.  The Mets certainly have their share of starpower, so a return to contention in 2026 is absolutely possible (or even plausible)
• lol, I meant to write the word “likely” there, not “plausible.”

A Coors on the Rox

• will Colorado hire a GM before free agency begins? Seems like their GM will be at another disadvantage by not being in place but I guess they’ll be rebuilding no matter what

Mark P

• The new GM/PBO will first be focused on hiring a new manager, but you’re right….I don’t think courting free agents is going to be high on Colorado’s list of offseason plans

RaymondReddington

• Verlander reuniting with the tigers, good idea?

Mark P

• Sure!

Dana Brown

• Could you see the Astros trading Christian Walker for a SP…then turning around & signing Pete Alonso for 1B? Heyman has linked Houston to Polar Pete.

Mark P

• The problem is, Walker is owed $40MM over the next two seasons and is coming off a rough year at both the plate and in the field. He’s not the easiest player in the world to trade.

  In this scenario where the Astros trade Walker and then sign Alonso, there’s a complication in that you’d need to find a 1B-needy team that is also not willing to go for Alonso, or Naylor, or Okamoto, or Murakami, etc.

That Baseball Fan

• Please tell us who you think will win tonight and why.

Mark P

• As a Blue Jays fan, I’m in a weird Schrodinger’s Cat scenario at the moment — today will either be the greatest or worst-ever day of my baseball fandom, with no in-between.  This month of playoff baseball has left me watching tonight’s games with frayed nerves….but I think the Jays will pull it off.
• And on that note, it’s time to wrap the chat.  Hope everyone enjoys Game 7, and there’s a lot to look forward to in a very busy upcoming week on MLBTR as the offseason gets underway.
• If you’re interested in more baseball Q&A, one of the many benefits of our Trade Rumors Front Office subscription is the exclusive weekly live chats. The more limited field means you’re about 10 times more likely to get a question answered, as opposed to battling for space with hundreds of other questions in today’s chat. For more on our memberships, check out this link:

  https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/membership?ref=chat-11-01-25

Doug

• Should the Mets be engaging the Rays in trade talks this offseason? The Rays can offer short-term bullpen help (Fairbanks), as well as offense at 2B (Lowe) and/or 1B (Yandy Diaz) that wouldn’t require Stearns to go long-term on any of those players (and likely not impact the top of the farm system prospects). What would be a framework of a potential deal between the Mets and Rays?

Mark P

• The Rays tend to want at least one MLB-ready player in such a notable trade, so they’d ask for one of the Mets’ young starters.  This might not necessarily work for a NYM team that needs rotation depth anyway, but to your point, Tampa combining two of their trade chips into a single deal might be intriguing on this front.

Guest

• What routes do you see the Red Sox taking? I feel there are a million different ways they could go. I feel signing Tucker then trading both Duran and Abreu in two different trades for pitching is the way to go.

Mark P

• This seems a touch complicated when the Sox could just trade one OF for a pitcher, and then perhaps sign another arm.  Tucker probably won’t be on Boston’s radar when the Sox already have so much in the outfield pipeline.

C-Daddy

• Stress level out of 10 with your beloved Blue Jays in the playoffs.

Mark P

• Oh man, I’ve been a borderline nervous wreck all October, lol.  Playoff baseball is both the best and kinda the worst!

  My stress level is somewhat mitigated by my amazement that the Blue Jays actually won the pennant and are battling it out in the WS.  Obviously it would be disappointing to get this close and then fall short, but this whole season has been such an unexpected joy that it’s all gravy at this point.

Mark

• Do you think that Mike Trout is going to be traded?

Mark P

• No

Chaim Bloom

• Who should I go after in free agency, but also remain in rebuild territory?

Mark P

• The Cardinals’ free agent targets will probably be veterans on one-year deals, with the idea being that St. Louis could then potentially flip them at the deadline.  They don’t want to block any of their young players to any great extent, but signing a starting pitcher to eat innings and act as an experienced leader for the kids makes sense, especially if Gray is moved

Allen

• Seattle needs a bat for 2B/3B and are said to be shopping Castillo. Who are the top targets? Might they pay some salary?

Mark P

• The M’s might still be open to moving Castillo to free up some payroll space, yet don’t forget that Colt Emerson will be making his MLB next year.  It’s probably safe to pencil him in at 2B or 3B, leaving the Mariners looking at just the other position.  It could be as simply as re-signing Polanco, if they think he’ll be able to return to regular second base action

Guest

• A lot of Giants fans want them to pursue Skubal in light of trade rumors that he’ll be made available. But I say wait til he’s FA and take a run at him then, otherwise you spend all your trade capital on someone who will walk at the end of 2026 cause he’s a Boras guy and Boras discourages extensions.

Mark P

• This makes sense, though having Skubal on the roster for a year and (in theory) winning him over with the organizational atmosphere and the Giants’ intent to win will help them in a bidding war next winter.  Not that Skubal would necessarily be taking a hometown discount or anything, maybe he’d be more open to staying in a known environment if the money is pretty equal all around

Ang T

• IF Harper made available for trade by PHI, which teams would be the top suitors?

Dave Dombrowski

• What CF could I get for Bryce Harper on the trade market after my idiotic comments about him after the season?

Mark P

• “Idiotic” is the wrong word.  I’ll bet Dombrowski wishes he’d phrased his answer differently in that press conference, but Dombrowski said nothing incorrect about Harper’s 2025 season.  I can also understand why a competitive guy like Harper would be upset by the comments, plus the fact that Dombrowski didn’t mention the obvious caveat that Harper was dealing with a wrist problem for a decent chunk of the year.

  This seems like much ado about nothing, ultimately, in part because Harper has a no-trade clause and doesn’t want to go anywhere.  If Dombrowsk was playing 4-D chess and Harper now has extra motivation to have another MVP-level season, everyone wins.

Ghost

• What would a reasonable offseason look like for the White Sox to try to progress towards respectability?

Mark P

• Getting a good return in a Luis Robert trade. Picking up a couple of other veterans that turn into good deadline trade chips.  If the White Sox were ever willing to spend money, I’d suggest taking on a bad contract or two in order to try and obtain some better prospects from teams.

Natitude Dude

• Alec Bohm to the Nats to play 1B/3B? Thoughts.

Mark P

• Bohm is a free agent next winter, so I don’t think he’s much of a fit on a Nationals team that likely isn’t trying to win in 2026.

Rays Days

• If there is a 2027 work stoppage or lockout
  Would it behoove the rays to just pick up Lowe’s and  Diaz’s options for next year and then wait and see what 2027 brings

Mark P

• Lowe has a club option for 2026, whereas Diaz is under contract next year (with a club option for 2027).

  Sure, it’s possible the Rays might just stand pat with both guys.  Fairbanks is the most obvious trade candidate of the three, so he’s the only one I’d be truly surprised to see still in a Rays uniform on Opening Day.  The Rays might want to keep Lowe and Yandy around to help a lineup that needs more pop anyway.

Tennessee fan

• Does the Vitello hiring make the Giants a more desirable destination seeing that Vitello’s recruiting skills have reportedly been outstanding?

Mark P

• This is an interesting aspect of Vitello’s hiring that I haven’t seen addressed in much depth.  The Giants’ issues in luring (most) top free agents to San Francisco have been well-documented, yet keep in mind, there’s a world of difference between talking a top high schooler or college player into coming to Tennessee and talking a top free agent into signing with your team.
• Ultimately it’ll come down to what the Giants are offering financially, of course, but if they’re offering comparable money, maybe a great pitch from Vitello could be a tie-breaker in some cases.

John Stanton

• Everyone in Seattle loves Naylor. Should I just give him want he wants to stay and play for us or is this just the Naylor charm talking and my money could be better spent elsewhere?

Mark P

• If Naylor doesn’t re-sign, the Mariners will need a first baseman anyway.  So why not go all-in (to some extent) to bring back a known quantity who has already proven that he can hit in Seattle?

Trip

• Where do you see Freddy Peralta next year?

Mark P

• On Opening Day, Freddy Peralta will be playing for….

  ---

  The Brewers (27.7% | 102 votes)

  Another team (72.2% | 265 votes)

  ---

  Total Votes: 367
• I totally see the logic in trading Peralta, but I’d lean more towards him staying put.  The fact that Peralta is making just $8MM is such a big help to the Brewers’ budget and their rotation that it would be a really huge offer to get Arnold to pull the trigger on a deal.

Drew

• Who are you hearing will be the Padres next manager?

Mark P

• Based just on speculation, my guess is Ryan Flaherty.  A known quantity in SD, and he was apparently Preller’s preferred choice in the last managerial search before he was overruled by upper management.

White Sox Fan

• What would Tyler Soderstrom cost in a trade? Sox need some power bats. I also can see Rhys Hoskins as a good fit on a 1 yesr deal

Mark P

• Signing Hoskins is a far, far likelier scenario than the A’s dealing away a controllable talent like Soderstrom.  The LF experiment with Soderstrom worked out far better than expected, so the A’s suddenly have no logjam between him, Rooker, and Kurtz

Dodger Fan

• Do you think the Dodgers will go out and get some OF help this offseason or give one of their young minor league studs a chance to come up and play LF?

Mark P

• You can’t rule LA out on a big signing like Tucker just because they’re one of the few teams in that spending tier.  But, I can see the Dodgers being a bit cagier and looking to add an outfielder who is controlled just for 2026.  Perhaps a Conforto-esque free agent on a one-year deal, except obviously with the hope that this player produces way more than Conforto did

Gussie Busch

• Where do the Cards start? Fire sale and see what’s left? Not sure the fan base will give it 3 years. The past two generations of fans have never experienced this.

Mark P

• You’re selling the STL fans short, since there have been tons of questions/comments in these chats alone over the last few years from Cardinals supporters wanting to blow things up.  A rebuild is at least a direction, rather than the team spending 2024-25 largely treading water.

Marky Mark

• Whats on the Playlist tonight?

Mark P

• Dolores O’Riordan’s cover of “Go Your Own Way”

bmcferren

• Are the Cubs willing to take on salary to trade Ian Happ? Is Happ willing to waive his no trade clause to play left field in hometown of Pittsburgh?

Mark P

• Happ is making $18MM, and he is coming off a very solid year.  The Cubs probably don’t feel they should have to take on money in any trade, plus Happ probably won’t be too keen on waiving his no-trade protection.  And, if he is, it’s hard to see him leaving a contender to join the woeful Bucs (hometown pride notwithstanding)

Miguel Andujar

• Does it make sense for me to come back to the Yankees to help Judge win a championship?

Mark P

• Andujar is one of the free agents I see as a great low-key add for a lot of teams.  Not sure he’s an ideal fit for the Yankees specifically unless they kept him in LF full-time, not to mention any bad blood that might exist between the two sides

A. A.

• Texas needs to shed salary, but needs a catcher. We need a shortstop. How conceivable is a deal built around Sean Murphy and Corey Seager

Mark P

• With like $140MM of a gap in salaries between the two, this doesn’t seem very realistic.  Seager is terrific when he’s healthy, but teams would be very wary about his ability to stay off the IL over the course of his contract.  Perhaps especially if you’re a Braves team that was crushed by injuries last year, this doesn’t seem like a fit.

Sharon Peters

• clayton kershaw starting a World Series game yes or no?

Mark P

• Kershaw isn’t better right now than any of Yamamoto, Glasnow, Ohtani, or Snell, so no.

Moreno-gels

• is there any hope for the Angels to add any talent this offseason??  Or just another year of losing records and wasting Mike Trout?

Mark P

• Not to be pessimistic before the Angels’ offseason has really gotten underway, but I find it hard to see that team competing in 2026.  We’ve already gotten the weirdness of the managerial search and Suzuki getting just a one-year contract, so things are already off to a strange start for the team.

Reds Hopeful

• Brady Singer for Wilyer Abreu as the two main pieces make sense for both teams?  I like Abreu in Cincy better than what it would take to get Duran. Seems like a better candidate to hit 30 HRs too.

Mark P

• Singer is a free agent next winter, so the Red Sox would want a more controllable pitcher if they’re giving up Abreu

silent george

• is schwelenbach expected back full go by spring training? any long term worries with that injury or just a fluke thing?

Mark P

• Schwellenbach was getting ready to start throwing again even before the 2025 season was over, so he should be ready to roll for the start of spring camp

PCM2013

• How much does Boston want to move off Masataka Yoshida (if at all)? Would they consider a Yoshida-Taijuan Walker bad contract swap? Feels like a move to the other team’s stadium could help both players – Fenway helping Walker’s flyball stay in the yard, and CPB helping Yoshida’s power numbers.

Mark P

• Yoshida is owed $36MM over the next two seasons, and Walker is owed $18MM for 2026.  So there’s a financial gap right there, plus Walker posted decent numbers in 2025 and showed that he could again operate as a competent Major League starter.

  Yoshida, meanwhile, missed most of the season due to injury and didn’t hit well when he returned to action.  For the Phillies in particular, adding Yoshida to a lineup that hopes to have Schwarber back at DH isn’t a fit whatsoever.

Bob

• Do the Marlins make playoffs? with there young core

Mark P

• It’s optimistic to view Miami as a playoff team right now, but it can’t be ruled out given how much progress they made in 2025.  A few canny moves this winter might well put the Fish right into the playoff picture.

LAD

• Can you see a scenario in which LAD sits out the offseason?  They’ve got a stable of top100 OF talent and talk of pursuit of an OF on a long term deal.  A ton of SPs rehabbing in the minors and a pen that needs a remake.

Mark P

• You said it yourself, the bullpen needs enough work that the Dodgers won’t be sitting anything out.  But in general, obviously LA is in a lot better overall shape than most teams, so I wouldn’t expect a ton of blockbuster moves.  (One blockbuster move, however? Sure.)

Chief

• It appears the Royals are going to count on Caglianone to take a big role in 2026. Your thoughts?

Mark P

• As a top prospect, KC isn’t going to give up on him this soon, naturally.  Some more time at Triple-A seems like it might help to get Caglianone’s confidence back a bit, and adding another outfielder or two lessens the pressure on Caglianone to be good immediately.

Bader

• Phillies will top any offer I get in FA right? They need my exact skill set

Mark P

• As well as Bader performed in Philly, two months of production isn’t too likely to overwhelm his previous few years of subpar hitting.  The Phils surely have some interest in bringing him back, but not at any price

Phillies guy

• Bohm and Castellanos to angels for Ward and Soler   Who says no

Mark P

• This exact deal seems like the Phillies benefit a lot more than the Halos, so it needs some tweaking.

Core

• Do you see a scenario where the Pirates trade Joey Bart? He had a bad year and he can’t field. Henry Davis at every day sounds better plus Rafael Flores and maybe a Shawn Ross. Tell me your thoughts? What do they do if they trade Bart.
  1. Call up Shawn Ross.
  2. Henry Davis Everyday and flores backup.
  3. or Sign a free Agent and let Spring decide

Mark P

• What’s up with the Pirates and all their catchers with two first names?  Henry Davis, Joey Bart, Shawn Ross, Omar Alfonzo, Rafael Flores….well, maybe not that last one, but come on, surely there’s someone in the world with “Flores” as a first name

  Anyway, onto the actual question!  I agree that Bart might be moved, as giving Davis another big dose of playing time seems like a more important big-picture decision.

Ang T

• Do the TB Rays stay in St. Pete, move to Tampa Proper, or a different location in the future?

Mark P

• From what I understand of Tampa/St. Pete geography, it seems like having a ballpark in actual Tampa is the much more preferable location for all parties.  It’s just that it seems very difficult to find available land in an area that checks every box the team is looking for, not to mention the finances involved in actually getting the stadium built.

Guest

• Two Braves notes: 1. Despite how much people like to speculate on a Murphy trade, the Braves have been perfectly fine playing two starter-level catchers alongside each other before. 2. Re: Bowman’s report for Lehmann, while I’m not opposed to him, worth noting that his wording was “his candidacy has seemingly strengthened over the past couple weeks”, and that may be just really mean he thinks Lehmann has a better argument simply because of the Dodgers’ World Series run. At the very least, that part seemed more speculative than other parts apparently backed up by sources.

Mark P

• Anthopoulos has known Lehmann dating back to their days together in LA, so that seems like more of a factor than the Dodgers having another deep playoff run.  Bowman indeed didn’t state that Lehmann was any kind of favorite or even that he was necessarily a top candidate, but it does seem like Lehmann is indeed a candidate.  This is basically all we’ve got to go on given how the Braves are keeping such a tight lid on things.

  As to your point about the catching situation, it’s also worth noting that Murphy’s trade value isn’t exactly at a high point right now.  If Baldwin continues to hit well and avoids a sophomore slump, Atlanta might look to move Murphy next offseason, but doing so now both leaves the club a bit thin at catcher and it’s a bit of a sell-low on Murphy.

Tony Rendon

• Do you think the Angels have any expectations for me in 2026?

Mark P

• If Rendon didn’t have a no-trade clause, he’s actually someone I’d suggest in “bad contract swap” scenarios involving the Angels.  Even if the Halos were taking on more money overall, getting something back in the form of a player that is guaranteed to actually play in 2026 is more preferable to the team than keeping Rendon around
• One drawback is that Rendon is both owed $38MM in 2026 and that would also be his luxury tax number, which is a bigger hit for teams trying to limit their tax bill

Kevin in Pa

• Do starting pitchers like Quintana and Jordan Montgomery make sense for the Cards rotation this season or will they target lesser starters? Thanks

Mark P

• Both make some sense, though Montgomery is recovering from Tommy John surgery and won’t be back until closer to midseason

Card Fan 60+ years

• I remember B Gibson pitching a no-hitter, Torre batting .363, Whitey ball in the eighties. Pujols departing was a major blow, but nothing was like being told we would not compete in 2025. Being told we are losers does not sit in the midwest and I would rather find something else to do than watch.

Mark P

• I don’t doubt that many Cards fans share your opinion, given the lower attendance numbers this season.  But, if the Cards actually had gone ahead with more of a proper rebuild last winter, at least you could’ve said “ok, this stinks, but at least I can see that they’re trying to get better.”

  Having a 2025 campaign that was basically a year of stasis made little sense to me, and probably added to the discord amongst the St. Louis fanbase

John

• Who is the best option for the Royals to trade for to shore up their outfield needs this offseason? Or do they go the free agent route?

Mark P

• Since the Royals have a need in both LF and 2B, Brendan Donovan might be the best fit since he can play either position (or toggle between the two)

Bosox Fan 1

• Will the Red Sox show an  interest in J. T. Realmuto?

Mark P

• Narvez’s bat cooled off a lot as the season went on, but the Sox seem fine enough with him as their 1a catcher that any pursuit of Realmuto wouldn’t be a top priority

liptowi

• Do you pull the plug on Volpe if he has a meh spring training and just go with Caballero or O. Cabrera until the trade deadline  (with Lombard in the wings for 2027)?

Mark P

• Caballero did enough in his short time in the Bronx that the Yankees might want to give him a real look as their shortstop (at least) until Volpe is healthy.
• Going out to get another veteran SS this winter is probably less likely due to Caballero’s presence.  And, due to the fact that the Yankees themselves haven’t given up on Volpe (even if it feels like 95% of Yankee fans have)

Sneaky

• is the reason not many questions are about Cleveland because Cleveland is not going to do much beyond signing Hedges as C2 ? It sure seems when all the hype is pumping that they have several “extra” prospects that could fetch some help

Mark P

• The Guardians almost surely won’t be making any big signings, and it’s trickier to try and predict which trades they “might” make. There aren’t any obvious trade candidates on the roster (ala Naylor last year) going into this offseason, since chances are Kwan won’t be shopped until either the deadline or next offseason.

Rick

• I’m thinking the Dodgers may go for Murakami for 3rd/1st base as Muncy & Freeman are getting close  to end of their contracts. What do you think? Thanks

Mark P

• This would suggest the Dodgers would use Murakami as a LF for at least one season, since Muncy’s club option is very likely to be exercised. Can’t be ruled out, but it feels like the Dodgers probably wouldn’t be mentioned as a Murakami suitor if it wasn’t for their long history with landing Japanese talent

Chopper to Chipper

• Bees?

Mark P

• Beads?!
• And with the catchphrase now achieved, we can call it a wrap on the chat. Thanks to everyone for all the questions, and it’s wild to think that this might be the last Weekend Chat of the 2025 season.  Enjoy the World Series this week, and let’s hope my nerves can handle it.
• If you’re interested in more baseball Q&A, one of the many benefits of our Trade Rumors Front Office subscription is the exclusive weekly live chats. The more limited field means you’re about 10 times more likely to get a question answered, as opposed to battling for space with hundreds of other questions in today’s chat. For more on our memberships, check out this link:

  https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/membership?ref=chat-10-26-25

Craig Breslow

• can you see me making a package deal with the Cardinals for Gray, Contreras and Wynn

Mark P

• Cardinals aren’t going to move all their trade chips in one deal, and moving Winn doesn’t seem likely at all.

Cal

• Is Cal Raleigh the MVP?    Only 6 players have hit 60 homers.  And I am a catcher with a platinum glove. Who play 159 games

Mark P

• He’d be my pick, if I had a vote.  Judge’s numbers are overall better, but the degree of difficulty for a catcher hitting 60 home runs in that home ballpark is wild

Ryan

• What bats do the Pirates sign or trade for this offseason?

Mark P

• Spencer Horwitz-type players, in all likelihood.  This isn’t necessarily a bad thing since Horwitz had a good year, and obtaining controllable young hitters is something the Pirates should absolutely be doing.Of course, what they also “should” be doing is being willing to spend more on hitting.  Until they do so, however, I’ll continue to assume they’ll keep looking for cost-effective bats rather than more proven talent

Arte Moreno

• Could you see Bo Bichette shifting to 3B or 2B this off-season?

Mark P

• Bichette’s arm isn’t great, so 2B seems to be the more likelier option if he is open to a position change.From both a financial and common-sense standpoint, it would make sense for Bichette to move off shortstop.  Being willing to play 2B opens the door for more potential suitors, plus it solves concerns about his glovework at short.

TameImp

• After a really rough postseason  – what is Luke Weaver looking at in FA? Less than what Holmes got last year?

Mark P

• Holmes isn’t an ideal comp since he signed as a starting pitcher.  Weaver said in September that he is open to considering a move back to rotation work, though it depends how many teams share a belief that he can return to his early-career starting form.Chances are Weaver remains a reliever, and still lands a multi-year deal.  A one-year “prove it” sort of pact is possible, and Weaver might even prefer such a contract since it would allow him to re-enter the market next winter on the heels of a better platform year

Freddy

• Any chance that Buxton changes his stance on his no trade clause?

Mark P

• Only Buxton knows this for sure, and he was adamant even after the deadline fire sale that he wants to remain in Minnesota.

o-birds

• Is Albert Pujols an actual candidate to manage the O’s? l just don’t see it and what are our chances of signing Valdez or Gallen?

Mark P

• He’s supposed to interview for the job, so I assume Pujols isn’t being called in just to talk about his three-homer game in the 2011 Series.Valdez/Gallen would represent a new frontier for the O’s in terms of free agent spending.  Even before the Mike Elias era, the Angelos ownership was famously wary of committing big money to pitchers.  The catch here is that I wonder how much Gallen will earn in the wake of his so-so 2025 numbers, and if that could drop him into Baltimore’s price rang
• range

Mark

• Do you think The Pirates will make Jared Jones and/or Oviedo available this off season? When is Jones expected to be ready and what do you think it would cost the Red Sox to trade for either of these pitchers?

Mark P

• Jones is expected back by May, as he underwent a brace surgery rather than a Tommy John surgery.  He could conceivably return before then, to boot.While everything seems okay with his recovery to date, there’s still enough rehab to come that I can see teams shying away from a pitcher coming off major UCL surgery.  Or at least, Jones might draw less attention than some of the other arms Pittsburgh has on offer.

  Oviedo only logged 40 1/3 innings in his own comeback year, as he was sidelined by a lat injury in the wake of his Tommy John rehab.  I’m not sure he was viewed as a prime trade chip even before all these injury woes, so his value is pretty low at the moment

• As it relates to the Red Sox, Boston is probably going to be aiming higher with their pitching search

Guest

• I was thinking after the regular season that Judge was the MVP, but Raleigh is seriously carrying the Mariners throughout the postseason. Will this sway any voters?

Mark P

• Awards voting is done after the regular season, before the playoffs begin.

Starting Pitchers

• Who has more value relative to expected prospect cost in a trade? Peralta or Skubal?

Mark P

• Peralta will earn $8MM next year, and Skubal will cost roughly $17.8MM (as per Matt Swartz’s arb projection).  Even with that big gap in price tag, Skubal should net a bit more in a trade return because he is arguably the best pitcher in baseball.  Peralta is a very good pitcher in his own right, but maybe more of an ideal No. 2 starter on a contender

Robbie Baseball

• Honest question, how is George Springer not a candidate for the MLBPA Comeback Player of the Year award?

Mark P

• The award usually goes to players returning from injury, not players coming back from a bad season.  DeGrom has to be the top choice for the AL honors.

Guest

• what is you take on ontani thowing 6 shut out innings ant hitting 3 home runs been a 55 year old baseball fan and thats simpiy amazing

Mark P

• You can’t make this stuff up.  Ohtani is delivering iconic performances on a regular basis, and even he outdid himself last night.  Maybe literally the best game anyone has ever played, and in a playoff game to boot.

Trade

• Jose Soriano for Brett Baty who says no?

Mark P

• Not sure either side would see that as a total fit.  The Mets obviously need starting pitching, but Soriano is maybe too grounder-dependent for what they’re looking for

Kevin in Pa

• Bloom mentioned the Cards would be in the market for pitching. Does this mean Quintana or more like Cease? Thanks

Mark P

• The Cards are in rebuild mode, so Cease doesn’t fit.  Veteran innings-eaters like Quintana are more likely, but the priority will be giving rotation spots to the younger arms

Brian S

• Do you think Bubic and Isbel could have value as a trade package for an upgrade in CF for the Royals. If so, who’s a team needing SP who could trade a young CF with offensive potential?

Mark P

• Bubic is only controlled through 2026, and Isbel is a fantastic fielder who can’t hit.  I’m not sure that’s enough to land “a young CF with offensive potential” since those types of players are generally kept by their teams.Moving Bubic for a corner OF might be the smoother fit for Kansas City.  As much as the Royals need outfield help, Isbel’s glove is at least a big plus, so they’re probably fine staying with him as the primary center fielder as long as they get some pop for the corners.

Bats or Arms

• Bigger priority for Breslow: resign Bregman or find an actual #2 to slot behind Crochet?

Mark P

• Finding another quality pitcher.  If Bregman leaves, the Red Sox can arguably fill that 3B hole with Marcelo Mayer, even if that’s putting a lot of pressure on a youngster.

Dick Monfort

• What’s a realistic timeline for the Rockies to get back to contention? The whole organization is a dumpster fire. 5-7 years?

Mark P

• Depends on who the GM hire is, but that sounds about right.  In theory, a new GM/PBO will be given the freedom to overhaul basically everything about how the organization operates, which will take a lot of time.

Guest

• Not sure I’ve seen it mentioned anywhere, but if the Reds want more offense, maybe they could swing a trade for Benintendi with the White Sox eating much of the financial cost.  Obviously Benny hasn’t exactly been an offensive powerhouse the past few years, but if you look at expected homers by ballpark, the Reds’ ballpark should be one of the most beneficial ones for him, and LF/DH is enough of a question mark for them where the fit actually isn’t that bad.

Mark P

• I see your logic, but if the Reds are looking for a true upgrade, they can do a lot better than Benintendi

MLB Owners

• Saw an ESPN article before the NLCS saying it could impact CBA negotiations. You buy that? Seems like the cap crowd could make a pretty good case based on that blowout of a series. The Brewers just weren’t in the class of the Dodgers.

Mark P

• So, “blowout.”  Let me be clear, the Dodgers were definitely a lot better than the Brewers in that series and were the clear winners.  But, LA also scored only 15 runs over the four games, and only because they had an all-time performance from their rotation.And, if the Brewers get a big hit in the ninth in Game 1 and win, does everyone’s perceptions of the NLCS change if the Dodgers win in five games rather than a sweep?

  Right now MLB is having its cake and eating it too, in regards to the Dodgers and the upcoming CBA talks.  The Dodgers are a convenient boogeyman to present as an example why the league “must” have a salary cap, yet having a team like the Dodgers is an enormous boost to revenues across the board in terms of TV ratings, fan interest, merch, etc.

H-Town O’s

• Could you see the rangers trading Garcia for Mountcastle?

Mark P

• That’s an interesting concept of basically one non-tender for another.  Yet for either team, I feel like they’d want to explore the market to aim higher for their needs.

White Sox

• Are the White Sox going to loosen the purse strings and actually sign someone worthwhile? Or will it be another penny-ante off-season?

Mark P

• The Sox are still at least two more years away from contention.  In the bigger picture, they might not really start spending to the degree that fans expect until after Justin Ishbia fully buys the team

Kyle

• Arenado for Yoshida, who says no?

Mark P

• Yoshida has no value to a rebuilding team like St. Louis.

Brian

• Phillies would be wise to use money in other areas over giving Schwarber 5yrs at 30+AAV for a guy with 1 +tool. The OF needs work?  What do u think?

Mark P

• This does make logical sense, except Schwarber is such a premium bat and such a leader in that clubhouse that losing him would be a real blow to morale (in addition to the lineup).

Pat

• Do teams startthinking about lockout when offering new contracts?

Mark P

• The upcoming CBA talks and the likelihood of a lockout are definitely on teams’ minds.  It’ll also be on free agents’ minds when considering their options this winter.

Desiree

• What, if anything, would prompt the Pirates to make Paul Skeens available?

Mark P

• If Skenes demanded a trade, that might prompt some movement, but he doesn’t have much leverage to force the team to do anything.It is certainly possible another team calls Cherington this winter and says “look, I know Skenes isn’t available, but we’ll give you [absurd Godfather offer] for him.”  Skenes is as close to untouchable as anyone in baseball, but if the Pirates are realistic about their inability to retain him long-term, they should at least consider a deal if another team offers the absolute moon and stars

Tim

• Let’s get this one out of way, you’re going to get ask alot this offseason. Jo Adell finally gets traded this winter?

Mark P

• I’m not sure why the Angels would move Adell after he’s had the best season of his career.  The Angels’ outfield alignment is imperfect to say the least, yet trading Ward or even Soler in a salary dump seems more plausible than moving Adell

Arenado Fever?

• Why do so many people want Arenado on their favorite team?

Mark P

• Some fans are just that dissatisfied with their own third basemen that even the diminished version of Arenado seems like an upgrade.  Or, they think he’ll bounce back with a change of scenery.  Or, some fans might just not realize how much Arenado fell off in 2025.

Kyle

• If the Brewers do move Peralta what kind of return would they be looking for? A prospect package, or major league talent in an area of need?

Mark P

• I can see it looking pretty similar to the Burnes trade package.  Peralta doesn’t have quite the Cy Young ceiling of Burnes, but he’d be available at roughly half the cost.  At the very least, the Brewers would want one MLB-ready young player, and one slightly more longer-term prospect (or a CBR pick).

romorr

• “”look, I know Skenes isn’t available, but we’ll give you [absurd Godfather offer] for him” So Spencer Jones and Volpe should get the deal done, right? Maybe throw in Will Warren if the Pirates ask for more.

Mark P

• That would be the Godfather 3 of trade offers

Albert Pujols

• Can a manager also be a player ? Player/manager?

Mark P

• Player/managers used to be relatively common back in the day.  I think the most recent player/manager was Pete Rose with the Reds in the 1980’s, and, uh, that didn’t work out great for many reasons.That should be the next challenge for Ohtani, becoming a hitter/pitcher/manager if Dave Roberts were to retire.

Craig Breslow

• Did Masataka Yoshida do enough for me to trade him this off season?

Mark P

• An 88 wRC+ in 205 plate appearances, so nope

Baseball Fan

• Admittedly, I’m not a Tigers fan, so I hadn’t watched them this season until Skubal’s start the other night against the Mariners. Does the rumored contract extension numbers make sense for him or is that a steep overpay?

Mark P

• The Tigers’ initial extension offer seemed absurdly low, both in terms of money and the idea that Skubal would take such a relatively short-term deal.So yeah, Skubal and Boras aiming for a record-setting pitching contract is certainly within reason for them, given how well Skubal has performed.  Anything Detroit offers has to be $300MM, at least, since that’s where Boras wants to move the market.
• We’re cutting things a little short on the chat today since some pretty fascinating news on the Giants’ managerial search is breaking.  Thanks to everyone for all the questions!
• If you’re interested in more baseball Q&A, one of the many benefits of our Trade Rumors Front Office subscription is the exclusive weekly live chats. The more limited field means you’re about 10 times more likely to get a question answered, as opposed to battling for space with hundreds of other questions in today’s chat. For more on our memberships, check out this link:https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/membership?ref=chat-10-18-25