MLBTR Chat Transcript

Steve Adams

• Good morning! Chatting a bit early today, as I have some afternoon commitments. Feel free to send in questions ahead of time, as always. We’ll get going at 11am CT!
• Hello! I’ll get going in a minute. Feel free to start adding questions to the pile!

Question

• How many questions do you guys usually get on these chats?

Steve Adams

• Several hundred. More as we get closer to the Winter Meetings, trade deadline, busier times of year in general. I think last week topped out around 800 participants, and I imagine we’ll hit similar or greater levels this time around

Leave it to Beavers

• Is Bubic available? Would Heston Kjerstad be enough for a 1 for 1 or has his stock fallen too far?

Steve Adams

• The Royals are open to moving a starting pitcher for an outfielder. President of baseball ops JJ Picollo has publicly said as much. Bubic only has one year left before free agency, so he’s certainly someone they’ll listen on.That doesn’t mean they’re outright shopping him, however. And while Kjerstad was a high-profile prospect for several years, I think his stock has cratered so much that I wouldn’t give much consideration to trading Bubic for him. I’m not convinced Kjerstad even makes it through the offseason on Baltimore’s 40-man roster.

DC Fan

• Odds CJ Abrams gets traded?  Nunez is pretty good.

Steve Adams

• As in Nasim Nunez? I would disagree with you there. He’s a good fielder but that’s about it. I don’t think he’s a big leaguer unless he’s just an all-glove utility man.But that doesn’t hold much bearing on Abrams anyhow. The Nats aren’t going to be good in 2026. It doesn’t matter if they have have an heir-apparent waiting to step in for Abrams.

  Abrams is a bat-first middle infielder who might improve defensively with a move to second base or center field. He’s miscast as a shortstop, but he’s a good enough hitter/runner that it hasn’t mattered.

  I don’t like putting “odds” on these things, since it disingenuously suggests there’s some level of precision when it’s all dependent on what the market bears. But the Nats will listen on Abrams, and yeah, there’s a chance someone offers enough to make them pull the trigger. He has three cheap years left, so it’d need to be a pretty significant return, though.

Sad Buc

• Would the Pirates and Braves make good partners for a Murphy for pitcher trade?

Steve Adams

• Atlanta would be selling low on Murphy coming off the surgery. He’s expected to be ready for spring training, but we’ll obviously see how he looks and how the rehab goes.I also don’t think there’s so much surplus value on his deal that he’s going to command a controllable young starter. I suppose maybe you could add some pieces to either side and put together a “baseball trade” with Mitch Keller going to ATL and Sean Murphy going to PIT, but in general I think there are better fits for Murphy, who I’m not at all convinced will be traded. I think it’s likelier the Braves just go with Baldwin/Murphy sharing a lot of DH/C time.

  For the Pirates, PNC park is where RH power goes to die, so adding a power-over-hit catcher who derives a lot of value from his defense but is now coming off hip surgery … I’d be wary there, much as I do like Murphy as a player overall.

Jay dream believer

• Does Berrios’ opt out possibility after 2026 make trading him impossible or just really complicated?

Steve Adams

• More the latter, but Berrios’ contract is underwater at this point. He’s a fourth/fifth starter who’s owed $66MM over the next three seasons but can opt out next winter if he manages to bounce back to something closer to his 2018-21 peak. So the acquiring team either gets the rebound performance and waves goodbye when he opts out, or he stays the course/declines/gets injured and isn’t worth the current deal.He’s not completely untradeable, but there are enough complicating factors that the chances are minuscule. I wouldn’t spend much time pondering the possibility.

Pat H

• Could the Braves get more than normal for Murphy in a trade this offseason? Catching options are slim. Perhaps a 2 or 3 starter.

Steve Adams

• No, I don’t think he’d fetch that.

Sabo’s goggles

• Brady Singer and Gavin Lux for Heliot Ramos?

Steve Adams

• I’d rather have Singer than Ramos at this point, even just the one year. Ramos was a slightly above-average bat who gave most of that value back on defense. Maybe he pops 30 homers as a DH and part-time OF with the move to GABP, but he’s not a guy I’m trading an established mid-rotation starter for — even a short-term one like Singer.

Guest

• Better value? Yoan moncada at 1/$2,000,000? Or trading for Nolan Arenado

Steve Adams

• Moncada got $5MM coming off a season where he tallied 45 PAs. He took 289 plate appearances with the Angels last year and was well above-average at the plate in that time. Yeah, he’s going to be hurt and miss time, but there’s no reason he should be taking a pay cut. I expect him to top last year’s $5MM.I’d rather have Moncada than Arenado, though I guess if Moncada is going to cost you $8.5MM and the Cardinals pay Arenado down to like $2MM per year, you could sell me on preferring Nolan.

  I’m mostly just out on Arenado at this point, though. The bat has declined in consecutive seasons. He was a genuinely bad hitter last year. The defense is still good, but not Platinum Glove-level good anymore.

Conrad

• Would you have given Devin Williams the QO? 1/22 would seem like decent value on him if he got 3/51 but perhaps the Yankees didn’t want to risk both him and Grisham accepting and immediately locking up $44MM on the budget

Steve Adams

• I think the Yankees just felt like the fit didn’t work and they were ready to move on. Probably some reluctance, as you said, to the idea of giving two QOs that might be accepted, as well. Then you’re spending $44.05MM on day one of the offseason. I have wondered whether he’d have gotten the QO if the Yankees didn’t have another borderline-accept candidate. I lean yes. I don’t care about Williams’ one-year ERA (really, his three-month ERA to begin the season). Clearly teams don’t, either.

Williams Contract

• So what’s the “real” AAV for the purposes of calculating the luxury tax? With the deferrals I’ve seen a bunch of conflicting sources and the exact details still seem a bit unclear; how close is $14M/year?

Steve Adams

• Jon Becker specializes in this type of contract nerdhood — said with genuine affection and appreciation, haha, Jon rules and is great at it — and he had the true AAV (for CBT purposes) at $14.792MM:
  https://x.com/jonbecker_/status/1995683385843614061

Tigs

• If Tigers offered Bregman the same yearly money with one less year, do you think that would be enough to sign him ?

Steve Adams

• No. I think they’ll need to offer him pretty close to the same level of guarantee ($172MM-ish) they did last winter. Probably without so many deferrals.Feels likely that they’re going to try to top $160MM so they can say he cleared $200MM for his free-agent years.

Earl

• When discussing a trade or potential free agent signing with another team or agent is it all done at the GM level? Or is it started at an Assistant GM level and work it’s way up at things get more serious?

Steve Adams

• Varies from case to case, but there are lots of negotiations — trade and free agent — spearheaded by assistant GMs. The sheer volume of offseason negotiations, both trade and free agent-wise, is just too large for it to be handled solely by the person atop the baseball ops hierarchy.

Jack

• What would the Reds need to get in an ideal trade package for Hunter Greene? Maybe a team with some specific prospects/players

Steve Adams

• A comical haul that would upset the fan base acquiring Greene. I don’t think there’s even like a 2% chance he’s traded this winter. Lodolo? Sure. Singer? Sure. Abbott? Ehhh…. I can see it a little bit. Greene? Basically no chance.I get it. Reds president of baseball ops didn’t expressly say “no way I’m trading Hunter Greene,” but he’s a small-market bb ops leader…. of course he’s going to keep the “we always listen” approach.

  If you want to throw out wild scenarios like the A’s offering Nick Kurtz, or the Tigers offering both Kevin McGonigle AND Max Clark (plus others), sure I suppose we can talk about it, but Greene is so good and on such a reasonable contract, that it’s pretty much a pipe dream as far as I’m concerned.

  I’ll eat those words if I’m wrong — always happy to. But I just cannot fathom trading Greene when he’s owed a $41MM over the next three years with a club option to make it $60MM over four.

Headfirstslide

• Who gets saves for the Cubs if Palencia fails to establish himself fully as a closer?

Steve Adams

• Maton’s going to be in that mix, but I imagine there are further bullpen additions coming.

Titled

• Other than title, what’s the difference between a President of Baseball Operations, a Chief Baseball Officer, and a General Manager?

Steve Adams

• They’re all just various terms for a player leading bb ops. With regard to the GM or CBO title, though, it’s easier for someone to hire them away by offering the promotion/title inflation to president of baseball operations (which, presumably, includes a pay bump as well)

Wilson Contreras

• Read your new post on Contreras. He had the best arm of any 1B and drastically improved his framing before getting hurt while usually being above average at throwing out runners. Do you think a team offered him a C/DH type role he would be more open to waving his NTC?

Steve Adams

• No good way to know the man’s personal preferences. He’s been asked about those preferences and hasn’t divulged. Maybe he’s happy at 1B and doesn’t want to go back to the more demanding position. Perhaps he misses catching and would welcome the chance if the Rangers or Padres or some catching-needy team was open to it.I assume as a player who’s about to turn 34, heading to a contender is the top priority. Beyond that, he isn’t sharing what he’s looking for, so we can only speculate.

kurt the hurt

• How about a Greene for Greene trade Hunter for Riley ? Riley knocks in 100 but strikes out at high rate. And Tigers needs starters when they lose Skubal and Mise and Flaherty next off season ?

Steve Adams

• Riley isn’t enough for Hunter
• But I’m sure the Reds have interest in Riley and would love to get their hands on him. He’s the sort of corner bat they’d like to add to the middle of the lineup.

Brian

• Is Santander tradeable at this point, maybe in a bad deal for bad deal scenario?   Feels like he doesnt really fit the Jays good defence/high contact team at this point

Steve Adams

• Hard to imagine them lining up on a deal like that. Think you just have to hope that he bounces back with a hopefully healthier shoulder in 2026.

Ike Melias

• Can the Orioles land a TOR pitcher this off-season? Rodgers and Bradish seem promising but another elite arm would be ideal.

Steve Adams

• I’ll be surprised if they don’t add one legitimate playoff-caliber starter.

BMORE

• Ragans for Cowser, Bradfield, and Povich?

Steve Adams

• I’m down on Cowser and Povich in general. Not moving Ragans for that group.

Answer me

• Berrios for McNeil who says no

Steve Adams

• Berrios is more expensive and isn’t a notable upgrade over incumbent options.
• (i.e. the Mets don’t want that deal, even if they probably do prefer to move McNeil)

Prove it

• Wouldn’t it be smart for the Pirates to make a trade early? Bring in a player that shows they want to contend. This will send a better message to free agents, I believe.

Steve Adams

• Sure, I can buy that. Takes two teams to make a deal though. I’m sure they’ve been working on it. They could also just “prove it” to the free agent in question by winning the bidding.I do think they’ll add two bats, probably one via trade and another via free agency.

Panda

• Donovan for Max Clark and Jayden Hamm.  Who says no?

Steve Adams

• I love Brendan Donovan but they’re not getting Max Clark straight up for him — let alone Clark + another prospect of some note.

Josh E

• How many MLBTR folks are going to the winter meetings this year?

Steve Adams

• None! Tim and I went last year. I don’t think we’ve ever sent more than three in a single year. But schedule didn’t work out great and I won’t shed a tear not going to the Orlando venue, which … ugh. (Sorry to any Orlando residents in the chat! ha)

Jeff

• Do you prioritize questions submitted before the chat starts?

Steve Adams

• Nah I try to take a mix of both — just like to open it for early questions because I know not everyone’s able to participate live.

Giants fan

• Why wont the Giants spend on pitching? It seems to me with Ray coming off the books after 26 that they could add a top of the rotation pitcher?

Steve Adams

• I assume it’s because they’re wary of adding another long-term commitment when they already have Rafael Devers, Matt Chapman, Willy Adames and Jung Hoo Lee all signed through at least 2029 (the first three through at least 2030). Logan Webb through ’28, too.But whatever, they’re the Giants. This is the spot they’re in. If acquiring Devers was going to prevent them from going long-term on any offseason additions, then they shouldn’t have acquired Devers.

  The farm isn’t great. There are holes on the staff and in the lineup. Shutting yourself off to a notable portion of the available pool of talent doesn’t feel like a winning mentality in this context.

NCBaseball

• Think the Brewers might deal Vaughn? He was good down the stretch but is still a risk at 7mm for a tightening budget. What could he fetch?

Steve Adams

• I’d like the idea more if they had a clear alternative at 1B. Vaughn is found money for them and will handily outproduce his salary if he hits anywhere close to his 2025 Milwaukee levels.If they’re worried about the salary, could always sign him for two years — buying out his final two arb seasons — and backload it a bit. But in general, I don’t think the Brewers are likely to move on from Vaughn.

Little Stevie

• Have you spoken to front office types about how much they use your website? I’d think they’re on it constantly… Do they fan-girl you when they meet you guys?

Steve Adams

• Ha, no one is fanning out when they meet us, but yeah, basically every front office person we’ve spoken to over the years is complimentary of MLBTR and tells us they frequent the site. Always nice to hear.

David

• Re:GM and Trades. Mariners Front Office is known to have Dipoto and Hollander work with different teams just due to the relationships they have built. Hollander manages the Arizona relationship and worked the Suarez/Naylor deals.

Steve Adams

• Yeah, a lot of it boils down to who has a good relationship with the party or parties on the other end of negotiations.

Guest

• What are the odds the Mets cave and give Diaz 5 years?

Steve Adams

• Don’t think they’ll go five. Don’t think he’ll re-sign there.
• Obviously not saying there’s a 0% chance of it or anything, but I don’t think the Mets are going to be the ones to ultimately make the biggest/longest offer.

Exhausted Monk

• If you played Padres GM for the offseason, what are you doing to clear payroll space and who do you go after?

Steve Adams

• Probably wouldn’t have tendered a contract to Jason Adam, first and foremost. Great pitcher, but $7MMish on a guy coming off a tendon rupture who might not be ready for Opening Day feels like a lot when resources are already limited. Could still look to trade him, though.Beyond that, try to find ways to dump Wandy Peralta and Yuki Matsui. Shop Cronenworth and a portion of his contract.

Ms Fan

• Donovan for Hancock… who says no? Mariners or Cardinals?

Steve Adams

• Cardinals

Bret V.

• Will 5 years and 150 mil get Schwarber back in Philly?

Steve Adams

• I would be shocked if it did not

Fred Nethyl

• Some players opted out of their contract and received a buyout for doing so.  You’re leaving?  Here, have some money Why in the world would anyone structure a deal that way?  What am I missing?

Steve Adams

• The buyout is just part of the price of the guarantee. Take Cody Bellinger’s three-year, $80MM deal. They could’ve just structured it as $30MM, $30MM and $20MM salary-wise, but they broke it down as $27.5MM, $27.5MM and $25MM, with a buyout on that final player option year. It just kicks some of the money down the road a bit. It’s a mini form of deferrals, in some ways.Also, this same thing exists going the other way. Why would a player agree to a club option when it’s only getting picked up if he proves himself to be worth far more than that option.

  It’s part of negotiation and part of getting a deal done.

Ted Williams

• Can Bohm and Kemp get us Duran if Bregman doesn’t return to Beantown?

Steve Adams

• It cannot

Eric Davis

• If you were the Reds GM and you don’t sign Schwaber what would you do to get a bat you desperately need in Cincy?

Steve Adams

• I’d have non-tendered Lux, Moll and Benson, for starters. And I just don’t think the contract Pete Alonso will ultimately command is going to be too far beyond the pale for the Reds. Unless he trounces our $110-120MM expectations here at MLBTR, I’d be all over that if I were the Reds
• Ok. I’ve got to call it for the week.Tim’s mailbag will run tomorrow (I think), and Anthony will have a subscriber chat on Friday. I’m on X @Adams_Steve and Bluesky @adams-steve.bsky.social.

  If you want more opinions from the MLBTR team, you can learn about our Front Office subscription package and sign up here. In addition to ad-free viewing on the site and in the app, you’ll get weekly analysis/opinion columns from Anthony Franco and myself, a weekly mailbag column from Tim Dierkes, weekly fantasy baseball chats and columns with Nicklaus Gaut (during the season), weekly subscriber-only chats with Anthony and with me (where your odds of getting a question answered are much higher), extra insight from Darragh McDonald, access to our Contract Tracker (a vital offseason resource) our Agency Database, our GM Tracker, our Offseason Outlook series and more.

  Have a good week, everyone!