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Poll: Where Will Carl Pavano Sign?

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Cliff Lee is off the free agent market. The trade market's best and most available starter, Zack Greinke, has found a new home in Milwaukee. As unlikely as it would've seemed two years ago, Carl Pavano finds himself in a position to be the best option left for many teams looking to upgrade their rotation.

After a disastrous four-year stint with the Yankees that saw Pavano pitch only 145 2/3 innings combined, the right-hander has revitalized his career in the AL Central with the Indians and Twins. From 2009-2010, Pavano totaled 420 1/3 innings and posted a respectable 4.39 ERA in the process. His 2009 season was marred by some bad luck, but his FIP and xFIP over the past two seasons have both settled in right around the 4.00 mark, and he's totaled 6.9 WAR in that timeframe.

Pavano's 2010 saw him become a slightly different pitcher, as he traded in some strikeouts for groundballs. While he's never been one to miss too many bats, his K/9 was a full-season career low 4.76. However, he posted full-season career bests in both BB/9 (1.51) and GB% (51.2%).

Pavano, 35 next month, has told Minnesota teammates and club officials that he'd like to return. As the best free agent option though, he could also be in line for a three-year deal from another suitor. We've heard that the Twins may not need to match the best offer to retain Pavano, who has also been linked to the Brewers (though their acquistion of Greinke may remove them from the running), Nationals, and Rangers. The Tigers, who are looking at starters, say they aren't in on Pavano for now, but they've certainly got the money to spend. So where does Pavano end up? Let's take a vote:

Poll: The Padres’ Opening Day First Baseman

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The Padres lost their best player when they traded Adrian Gonzalez to the Red Sox for three prospects earlier this month, and GM Jed Hoyer is still trying to find someone to replace him at first base. Hoyer recently told XX1090 sports radio that the team’s next first baseman will come via free agency (as opposed to trade), and it would also be a one-year solution only.

Derrek Lee, who was originally drafted by the Padres back in 1993, seemed like a logical fit, but yesterday we heard they were unlikely to pursue him after signing Orlando Hudson. Jorge Cantu, Brad Hawpe, and Adam LaRoche are on the team’s list of options instead. Another solution could be free agent Troy Glaus, who Tom Krasovic of AOL FanHouse reminds us was a client of Padres CEO Jeff Moorad’s back in his agent days (Twitter link). The free agent pool also offers guys like Russell Branyan and Casey Kotchman.

Kyle Blanks would have been an ideal candidate if he wasn’t out until midseason after having Tommy John surgery. Who do you think will be manning first base for the Padres when the season starts?

Poll: Which Team Will Trade For Zack Greinke?

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Former AL Cy Young Award winner Zack Greinke has been mentioned as a trade candidate all offseason, but yesterday we learned that the right-hander unequivocally asked the team for a trade. He can block a trade to 15 teams, including the Yankees, Red Sox, and Nationals, but not the Tigers, Angels, or Rangers. The Blue Jays have been perhaps the most aggressive team in pursuit of the right-hander.

There are 30 teams out there that would love to have Greinke to their rotation, but it will take a substantial prospect package to land him. Kansas City owns the game’s best farm system, loaded with pitchers (especially left-handed) and players at the corner positions, so they could seek help up-the-middle in a trade. Earlier today we learned that they wanted second baseman/shortstop Danny Espinosa from the Nationals in a package, supporting that theory.

The Yankees are reluctant about pursuing Greinke, but if the price drops far enough they’ll almost surely entertain the idea after losing out on Cliff Lee. The Rangers have already made at least one offer. Greinke has said he’s willing to go anywhere, but the Royals say they won’t trade him within the division. Where do you think he’ll end up?

Poll: Multiyear Deals For Relievers

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Multiyear contracts are on the rise in general, and one group in particular has benefitted from the trend: relief pitchers. As MLBTR's free agent tracker shows, 11 relievers have signed multiyear deals so far this offseason. Many of these relievers will pick up saves in 2011, but only one of them – Mariano Rivera – is sure to be his team's closer next year. 

Yahoo's Jeff Passan argues that GMs "make the same silly mistake year after year" when they sign relievers to multiyear deals. Dave Cameron of FanGraphs recently explained convincingly that other than Rivera, relievers on multiyear deals have simply not produced.

But if a GM refuses to offer multiyear deals, the best free agents will sign elsewhere. Teams with money can often afford to gamble on relievers, even though their performance is volatile.

Look at the GMs who have signed relievers to multiyear deals: Ned Colletti and Tony Reagins have led their clubs to the League Championship Series in recent years. And every other GM who has signed a reliever to a multiyear deal this winter has led a team to the World Series. It would be overly simplistic to say these executives don't know what they're doing, but we can still ask the question…

Poll: Top Remaining Free Agent

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The top free agents – Cliff Lee, Carl Crawford and Jayson Werth – have signed their nine-figure deals, but many players are still available. The question is, which of the remaining unsigned players is the top free agent available? (Players listed alphabetically).

Poll: Who Will Sign Magglio Ordonez?

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Magglio Ordonez’s season came to an abrupt end on July 24th, when he fractured his ankle sliding across home plate. He had been hitting .303/.378/.474 in 365 plate appearances up to that point, and appeared to be on his way to having his $15MM option for 2011 vest. The injury changed everything and Magglio is a free agent for just the second time in his career.

Agent Scott Boras said that Ordonez has completed the rehab required for his ankle and has “returned to full workout routines.” He also held a private work out for the Tigers last week. The Rangers have interest in Magglio and the Red Sox did as well, at least until they traded for Adrian Gonzalez and signed Carl Crawford. Tim Dierkes examined Ordonez’s free agent stock last month, speculating that the Rays, Blue Jays, and Athletics could have some interest in a DH role. 

With the big free agent outfielders off the board, the market for Magglio should heat up very soon. Where do you think he’ll land?

Poll: Will The Rays Trade Matt Garza This Offseason?

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The trade talk surrounding Rays right-hander Matt Garza began to heat up this week as teams looked to fortify their pitching.  The Brewers and Rangers have talked to Tampa Bay about a possible swap but the Cubs were said to have the strongest bid. 

Texas is one club that is eyeing Garza as a Plan B if they are unable to land Zack Greinke in a trade.  The asking price for the 2009 AL Cy Young award winner is said to be sky-high and Garza could obviously be had for less.  Meanwhile, the Rays are flush with pitching and have holes to patch up elsewhere.

When considering Tampa Bay's needs and Garza's rising value, it seems like Garza is a strong trade candidate this offseason.  However, prior to the winter meetings, Marc Topkin of the St. Petersburg Times opined that the Rays will hang on to their pitchers until this summer unless the offers are exceptionally strong.

Poll: Where Will Rafael Soriano Sign?

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The Rays acquired Rafael Soriano from the Braves exactly one year ago today, but right now it’s a little unclear where he’ll be playing in 2011. The Angels were widely considered a natural fit, but GM Tony Reagins told Dan Woike of The Orange County Register (Twitter link) that he’s satisfied with his bullpen following the Scott Downs signing.

While all 30 teams can use a pitcher of Soriano’s caliber, only a few can realistically afford him financially and give him their closer’s job. Remember, saves equal dollars both now and down the road, so Soriano will likely have to be blown away to join a team as a setup man. As if things aren’t complicated enough, a team would need to surrender a high draft pick to land the soon-to-be 31-year-old, which some clubs simply aren’t willing to do. Time to vote…

Poll: Do The Yankees Need Cliff Lee

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If the Yankees don't sign Cliff Lee, their rotation will seem shallow, especially if Andy Pettitte retires. C.C. Sabathia, Phil Hughes and A.J. Burnett are viable starters, but it's hard to see the Bronx Bombers opening the season with Ivan Nova and Sergio Mitre in the rotation. You can make the argument that the Yankees need Lee, especially since the next-best free agent starter, Carl Pavano, is not the solution to the Yankees' problems after what happened in his first stint in pinstripes.

Zack Greinke may or may not be a fit for the Yankees, but other elite arms are potentially available in trades. The Yankees inquired on Francisco Liriano and Ricky Nolasco is known to be available. If the Yankees were to pair one of those starters up with Pettitte, their rotation would look strong and they could spend the money they would have committed to Lee on other needs.

Poll: Which Team Will Cliff Lee Choose

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After one month on the free agent market, Cliff Lee may be ready to decide on an offer. The Yankees have made him at least one proposal, the Rangers visited him in Arkansas again and it's too early to rule out interested teams such as the Nationals and Angels. These things are never easy to predict, but at some point the rumors will stop and the decision will be made.

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