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MLBTR Polls

Will Carl Pavano Land A Three-Year Deal?

By Tim Dierkes | December 27, 2010 at 11:42am CDT

The Twins and Nationals are still vying for free agent righty Carl Pavano, tweets Adam Kilgore of the Washington Post.  He suggests a decision could come later this week. 

On December 15th, Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports passed along one GM's word that Pavano sought a three-year deal worth $10-11MM per year.  Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe wrote yesterday that Pavano is holding out for three years.

Aside from the Twins and Nationals, Cafardo tossed the Rangers and possibly Mariners into the mix for Pavano.  Rosenthal's column from a couple of weeks ago said the Rangers were "not on" Pavano, and their agreement with Brandon Webb probably solidified that stance.

So Pavano seems to have two serious suitors, and agent Tom O'Connell could have a problem if one of them makes a deal for Joe Blanton or even signs a remaining free agent on a one-year deal.  My guess is that if Pavano received a three-year offer anywhere near $30MM, he would have taken it already.  Teams may be comparing Pavano to Joel Pineiro, who was coming off a great 2009 but could only find a two-year deal from the Angels on January 22nd.  But while Pineiro was coming off a lone strong season, Pavano was solid in '09 as well and has tallied 433 1/3 innings over 2009-10 including the postseason.  Perhaps the spectre of Pavano's Yankees contract is still looming.

Let's get your take: will Pavano sign a three-year deal?

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MLBTR Polls Minnesota Twins Washington Nationals Carl Pavano

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Poll: Will Andy Pettitte Retire?

By Mike Axisa | December 26, 2010 at 9:50pm CDT

The Yankees missed out on Cliff Lee this offseason, but there's still another free agent left-hander out there that can help shore up their rotation. No, I'm not talking about Jeff Francis or Bruce Chen, it's long-time Yankee Andy Pettitte.

For the fourth time in as many offseasons, Pettitte is debating between retirement and pitching another year. The lefty showed that he can still be an effective starter in 2010, posting a 3.28 ERA with 7.0 K/9 and 2.9 BB/9 in 129 innings, but he also demonstrated the perils of a 38-year-old starter. Pettitte missed a total 71 days due to elbow and (mostly) groin issues, and he was also hampered by back and hamstring issues in the postseason. Despite that, he still gave the Yanks a 7 IP, 2 R start in both the ALDS and ALCS.

Last we heard is that Pettitte is still leaning towards retirement, and it's worth noting that in three of the last four offseasons, he's re-signed with New York no later than December 12th. The lone exception is the 2008-2009 offseason, when he was coming off a second half in which he pitched through a sore shoulder. The Yankees will surely welcome him back with open arms, but GM Brian Cashman has indicated that they're operating as if the franchise's third winningest pitcher all-time was not going to return for the 2011 season.

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MLBTR Polls Andy Pettitte

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Poll: Should The Red Sox Trade Papelbon?

By Zachary Links | December 25, 2010 at 10:21pm CDT

This winter the Red Sox made an offer they knew would likely be refused when they put a three-year, $51MM contract in front of Mariano Rivera.  As expected, the legendary closer opted to remain in the Bronx where he wishes to finish his career.  Some reports have said that Rivera's arrival in Boston would have meant that the club would then deal Jonathan Papelbon elsewhere.  We may never know if that was the plan but major league GMs have said that the BoSox have been listening to offers for the outspoken closer.

Now Papelbon and Theo Epstein are set to go to arbitration as the 30-year-old seeks $11.5MM in 2011, his final year before free agency.  The right-hander had a down year this past season, turning in a 3.90 ERA 3.8 BB/9, though his 10.2 K/9 was only a shade below his career average.  Boston probably can't expect equal talent in return for the pricey pitcher, but with Bobby Jenks now in the fold and Daniel Bard potentially ready to take over as closer, they could afford to move Papelbon.  Alternatively, they can hang on to him through 2011, at which point they could either re-sign him or receive compensation in the form of a draft pick from another club.

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Poll: Where Will Jeff Francis Sign?

By Zachary Links | December 25, 2010 at 7:03pm CDT

Earlier this week, we learned that several teams are in on former Rockies pitcher Jeff Francis.  The Mets, Nationals, Pirates, Rangers, and Yankees are all said to have varying degrees of interest in the left-hander.  A return to Colorado can’t be ruled out either as Rockies GM Dan O’Dowd says that the club will keep tabs on him. 

Francis, of course, missed all of 2009 after undergoing shoulder surgery.  In 2010 he turned in a 5.00 ERA with 5.8 K/9 and 2.0 BB/9 in 20 games as he was limited by his injury.  However, his 3.94 xFIP indicates that he was better in that short span than the conventional stats indicate.  The Rockies understandably declined their $7MM option for him this winter, but the budding market for Francis could bring the soon-to-be 30-year-old a solid payday.

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Poll: Will Balfour Get A Multiyear Deal?

By Zachary Links | December 24, 2010 at 9:43pm CDT

Rays reliever Grant Balfour opted to roll the dice this winter when he declined the club's offer for arbitration.  Roughly one month later, Balfour remains on the open market.  Earlier this week, Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports wrote that the right-hander isn't being shut out because of his Type A status because 21 of the 30 teams could not do worse than have to give up a second-rounder.  Rather, it seems that the Australian-born hurler is still available because he is after a multi-year contract.

Chances are, he will get job security that he is after, says Rosenthal.  Teams that finished in the bottom half of the standings cannot lose their first-round picks for a Type A free agent.  Teams that have already lost their top selection for a Type A like the Red Sox, Angels, Tigers, Nationals, White Sox, and Phillies, would only lose a second-rounder.  The price for Balfour could even be as low as a third-rounder if any of those clubs opt to sign one of the other available Type As. 

Even though several attractive relief options are now off of the board, there are still plenty of interesting names available.  Did Balfour misjudge the market, or will he land the multi-year pact that he's after?

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Poll: Where Will Joe Blanton End Up?

By Zachary Links | December 24, 2010 at 5:59pm CDT

After signing free agent Cliff Lee to a five-year, $120MM pact, it's no secret that the Phillies need to trim payroll.  In fact, if they don't move well-compensated pitcher Joe Blanton, they'll have no room to make any acquisitions at the trade deadline, a source tells Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports.  The right-hander is due $8.5MM over each of the next two seasons.

The market for Blanton should become more clear once Carl Pavano, now the market's top free agent starter, signs with a club.  Blanton is five years Pavano's junior and wouldn't be a bad consolation prize for any team.  It's also possible that the Phillies could hang on to the 30-year-old, but as Rosenthal pointed out, it would handcuff the club.  With the teams that have been linked to Pavano as a guide, where do you envision Blanton winding up?

 

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Poll: Trevor Hoffman’s Future

By Mike Axisa | December 24, 2010 at 1:01pm CDT

When you look through our list of available free agents, two players stand out as surefire future Hall of Famers: Manny Ramirez and Trevor Hoffman. Manny has been involved in his fair share of rumors this offseason, but all has been quite on the Hoffman front. The 43-year-old told MLB.com’s Adam McCalvy that he still wants to pitch, but “the offers are sparse.” There was some thought that he could return to the Padres if they trade Heath Bell, but that obviously hasn’t happened yet. 

Hoffman, baseball’s all-time saves leader, lost his job as Milwaukee’s closer during the 2010 season, though he finished the year with a 2.67 ERA in his final 30.1 innings. His fastball velocity, never anything special to begin with, has been trending downward the last few years. If Hoffman can’t find a job to his liking before Spring Training, he could opt to retire with 601 career saves to his credit and over $80MM in career earnings (according to Baseball-Reference.com). 

Considering the multiyear, big dollar deals handed out to relievers this offseason, it’s not crazy to think that Hoffman could end up being a bargain on a low-salary, one-year contract. But will anyone give it to him?

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MLBTR Polls Trevor Hoffman

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Poll: The Next $100MM Contract

By Ben Nicholson-Smith | December 22, 2010 at 8:58pm CDT

We've already seen four nine-figure deals this offseason and Troy Tulowitzki, Carl Crawford, Jayson Werth and Cliff Lee may have company in the $100MM club before long.

MVP winners Albert Pujols, Joey Votto and Josh Hamilton are extension candidates. Scott Boras could surprise us all by finding $100MM out there for Adrian Beltre or negotiating a nine-figure extension for Carlos Gonzalez or even Jered Weaver. Prince Fielder and Jose Reyes are going to hit free agency after the 2011 season and C.C. Sabathia has an opt-out clause looming, so they may be seeking massive contracts within the year.

Let's vote on the next nine-figure deal (ignoring Adrian Gonzalez, since there seems to be a good chance that the Red Sox extend him once the season begins). Players are listed alphabetically.

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Poll: Which Team Will Sign Brandon Webb

By Ben Nicholson-Smith | December 21, 2010 at 4:51pm CDT

Brandon Webb is drawing serious interest from the Rangers and Nationals and the Cubs are in the mix, too. Best of all, there's a mystery team involved. Either the Cardinals, Reds, Brewers, Pirates or Astros also entered the bidding for Webb, according to ESPN.com's Jerry Crasnick.

The right-hander made just one start in the past two seasons because of shoulder troubles, but he was one of the league's top pitchers from 2006-08, when he posted a 3.13 ERA with 7.2 K/9 and 2.4 BB/9 while averaging 233 innings per season. Some team is going to get a high-risk, high-reward starter – which one will it be?

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MLBTR Polls Brandon Webb

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Poll: Joakim Soria’s Future

By Mike Axisa | December 19, 2010 at 8:31pm CDT

The Royals completed a franchise altering trade today, sending Zack Greinke to the Brewers for a package of four young players. Earlier this offseason they shipped David DeJesus to Oakland, the team’s longest-tenured player at the time. As much as Kansas City would love to unload the $12MM left on Gil Meche’s contract, it simply won’t happen. If GM Dayton Moore wants to continue purging his roster of veterans, could closer Joakim Soria be the next to go?

The old axiom says that bad teams don’t need a good closer, and the Royals are expected to be among the league’s worst clubs in 2011 while Soria is once again one of the game’s top closers. Compared to the multiyear contracts handed out to non-elite relievers this offseason, Soria’s $4MM salary for 2011 with club options for 2012 ($6MM), 2013 ($8MM), and 2014 ($8.75MM) is a bargain. Trade interest would be plentiful, and the Royals could expect several young players in return.

Because his contract is so team friendly, Moore could also hold on to Soria and see how the trade market develops before the deadline. We can’t forget the fans in KC either, Moore might not want to alienate them anymore by dealing his All Star closer so soon after trading away Greinke. The Padres reportedly kept Heath Bell for similar reasons. 

A radical, albeit unlikely, third option would be to convert Soria into a starter. He started in the Mexican League for quite some time, throwing a perfect game in his first start after the Royals selected him in the 2006 Rule 5 Draft. PitchFX data available at FanGraphs tells us that he still throws four pitches regularly (cutter, curveball, changeup, slider), so the repertoire is certainly there. It’s just a matter of health and getting stretched out. Like I said, it’s an unlikely move, but it wouldn’t be unprecedented. Just look at C.J. Wilson. What do you think the Royals should do with Soria?

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Kansas City Royals MLBTR Polls Joakim Soria

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