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The Giants And Jose Reyes

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After being shut out by Tom Gorzelanny last night, the Giants rank second to last in the NL with 3.54 runs scored per game.  "We're awful right now," manager Bruce Bochy told reporters last night.  Pablo Sandoval, Andres Torres, and Mark DeRosa are currently on the disabled list.  Aubrey Huff, Miguel Tejada, and Cody Ross have been terrible so far, while Buster Posey has failed to meet lofty expectations in the early going.

Chatter for the Giants to recall Brandon Belt is increasing, as he's killed the ball in nine games for the Fresno Grizzlies.  CBS' Danny Knobler wondered this morning whether Belt can be the Posey of 2011, providing the team's offense with a jolt.

Reyes

ESPN's Buster Olney speculated on another possibility this morning in his blog, a potential acquisition Giants fans inquire about every week in my chats.  Mets shortstop Jose Reyes is off to a .309/.348/.439 start, similar to his career averages and a big upgrade over Tejada offensively and defensively.  The Giants would have to accommodate Reyes' $11MM salary, $3.57MM of which will still be owed to him if he's acquired on July 31st.  Also, the Giants "would have to give up a really, really good young player — the Mets presumably would ask for a top-of-the-line young pitcher," in Olney's opinion.  Interesting side note: Olney guesses that Reyes "could be convinced to stay by a solid multi-year offer," rather than test free agency.    

One factor determining the Mets' asking price for Reyes will be how many other teams are seriously in the mix for him.  The Twins could make an offer, but only if they pull themselves up out of the AL Central gutter.  The Athletics could use a boost at shortstop.  The Brewers are a nice match, though their farm system is depleted.

The cost of renting a star position player has varied in recent years.  A few examples:

  • In July of 2009, the Cardinals acquired Matt Holliday and $1.5MM from the Athletics for Brett Wallace, Clayton Mortensen, and Shane Peterson.  Prior to the '09 season, ESPN's Keith Law ranked Wallace 19th among all prospects, while Baseball Prospectus' Kevin Goldstein had him 37th.
  • In July of 2008, the Angels acquired Mark Teixeira from the Braves for Casey Kotchman and Stephen Marek.  Marek wasn't a top 100 prospect, but he ranked sixth among Angels prospects before that season according to Baseball America.  BA ranked the Halos' farm system tenth in baseball.  Kotchman was 25 at the time, coming off a strong '07 season.  He was under team control through 2011 and owned a career line of .274/.337/.426.  Prior to his time in the Majors, BA had ranked Kotchman among their top 22 prospects four separate times.

These aren't great comparables, since Wallace was a top position player prospect and Kotchman was a decently-regarded first baseman headed for his second arbitration year.  Technically the Giants have a top position player prospect in Belt, who is universally considered among the top 25 prospects in the game.  I can't picture the Giants considering trading Belt's career for a couple months of Reyes, however.

If the Mets do focus on pitching, as Olney suggests, they'd have to ask for Zack Wheeler.  The righty was drafted sixth overall in '09 and is one of the 55 best prospects in the game on all lists. 

At the big league level, the Giants have two established starters the Mets could try to acquire.  One is Jonathan Sanchez, a solid lefty with a walk problem.  He's under team control through 2012; how much value would his '12 season at a salary of $8MM or so be of to the Mets?  Perhaps GM Sandy Alderson could flip Sanchez for longer-term players.  The Giants also have southpaw Madison Bumgarner, who is more valuable than Belt and controlled through 2016.  Like Belt, Bumgarner is way too much for Reyes.

The Giants do have the pieces to acquire Reyes, depending on how far they are willing to go.  I don't think it would take much more than Wheeler, if the Giants make that sacrifice.  Using Wheeler to get Reyes would at least allow the Giants to keep their big league rotation intact.  Building a deal around Sanchez would be easier to stomach long-term, but would leave a pretty big hole in the team's rotation.  And since Sanchez is only controlled through '12, the Giants might have to further dip into their stash of prospects to appease the Mets.  Though the Giants' farm system is considered among the bottom ten in the game, they do have interesting prospects beyond Belt and Wheeler.

Photo courtesy of Icon SMI.

Quick Hits: Rangers, Mejia, Bell

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May 2nd was a busy day for transactions 25 years ago, back in 1986. Current Red Sox manager Terry Francona signed with the Cubs and the Yankees signed Tommy John as a free agent. Here’s the latest from around the league…

  • Cuban outfielder Leonys Martin is working out at extended Spring Training in Arizona and his deal with the Rangers should be completed this week, according to Jeff Wilson of the Fort Worth Star-Telegram.
  • The Mets announced that top pitching prospect Jenrry Mejia has a complete MCL tear of the right elbow. Though surgery has been recommended, Mejia will likely seek a second opinion before having an operation.
  • Heath Bell told Jon Paul Morosi of FOX Sports that he helps his kids with their homework instead of reading trade rumors. Unfortunately for Bell, the rumors will really be heating up in July once school’s out. Of course trade rumors are nothing new for the Padres’ All-Star closer.

2012 Contract Issues: New York Mets

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The Mets are next in our 2012 Contract Issues series.  Here's what the team faces after the 2011 season:

Eligible For Free Agency (9)

  • Jose Reyes has spent his entire career with the Mets, and Beltran has been with them since the '05 season.  There seems little chance of either player being re-signed.  Both are playing well on the young season and should do well in free agency.  They're also midseason trade candidates, with Reyes expected to fetch more given his lower salary.  At $18.5MM, Beltran might be mostly a salary dump even if he's healthy and hitting.
  • Sandy Alderson imports Chris Capuano, Chris Young, Tim Byrdak, Jason Isringhausen, Scott Hairston, and Willie Harris are up for free agency again, as well as Ryota Igarashi.  Several of the pitchers may be traded this summer if healthy and pitching decently.

Contract Options (1)

  • Francisco Rodriguez: $17.5MM club option with a $3.5MM buyout.  Guaranteed with 55 games finished.  K-Rod needs 47 more games finished to cause his option to vest.  It can be done; he finished 57 from May onward in 2009.  The Mets will either have to trade him to a team with an established closer or be very careful about his usage.

Arbitration Eligible (4)

Pelfrey has posted one good start in six tries this year.  A lousy platform year might hold down his arbitration raise, but he could still reach $6-7MM.  The Mets could consider trading or even non-tendering the 27-year-old righty.  Pagan has been brutal and Paulino has been out of the picture, though Buchholz has been a nice find.  For the sake of argument, I could see Pelfrey, Pagan, and Buchholz earning $14MM in total in 2012.

2012 Payroll Obligation

The Mets' 2012 payroll obligation, according to Cot's, is $66.83MM, including Rodriguez's buyout.  If the Mets save $10MM+ by unloading Reyes, Beltran, and Rodriguez at the trade deadline, will that money go to next year's payroll?  Will Pelfrey be worth keeping around next year at $6-7MM?  Even if the Mets' financial problems result in a payroll drop to the $100MM range, Alderson should still have $20MM to play with.  A minority stake in the team could be sold by July, but Mets ownership will likely still be embroiled in a billion-dollar lawsuit when the 2011-12 offseason arrives.  When the Mets finally have a clean financial slate, there should be a lot of payroll space to work with.

New York Notes: Lowe, Reyes, Mets Ownership

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The Yankees will send Ivan Nova to the hill today in the rubber match against the Blue Jays, while the Mets will need to beat Cliff Lee tonight to avoid a sweep in Philadelphia. Before those games get underway, let's check out the latest on New York's two teams….

  • The Braves could look to trade Derek Lowe even if they're still in the playoff hunt, according to a scout who follows the team. Ken Davidoff of Newsday says the Yankees, who "negotiated seriously" with Lowe when he was a free agent, would be an obvious candidate to kick the tires on the right-hander if he's available.
  • Another scout told Davidoff that it's been years since he's seen Jose Reyes, who can be a free agent at season's end, play as hard as he's playing now.
  • Through the season's first month, both the Yankees and Mets are receiving production from unlikely sources, writes Joel Sherman of the New York Post.
  • Discussing the Yankees' unexpected production from veteran players, GM Brian Cashman told Filip Bondy of the New York Daily News, "When I fix things on the run I have a lot more success than doing the obvious slam-dunk things."
  • Vitaminwater co-founder Mike Repole likely isn't interested in investing in the Mets unless 100% of the team is for sale, he tells Dylan Butler of the New York Post.
  • According to Newsday's Steven Marcus, the Mets' future minority partner would be in position to take over the team if the Wilpons eventually decided to give up control of the franchise.

2012 Vesting Options Update

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It's the final day of the month, so let's check the status of the various vesting options around the league…

  • Bobby Abreu, Angels: $9MM option vests with 433 plate appearances. Abreu is more than a quarter of the way there already; he has 116 PA after today's game.
  • Rafael Furcal, Dodgers: $12MM option vests with 600 plate appearances. Furcal came to the plate 28 times before breaking his thumb. He's going to miss another three to five weeks, so he's unlikely to see the option vest.
  • Jon Garland, Dodgers: $8MM option vests with 190 innings pitched. Garland started the year on the disabed list and has thrown just 20 innings so far. He should still get there if he stays healthy.
  • Francisco Rodriguez, Mets: $17.5MM option vests with 55 games finished and if doctors declare him healthy at the end of the season. K-Rod has finished eight games so far, but you have to think the club will use him in a way to prevent the option from vesting.
  • Koji Uehara, Orioles: $4MM option vests with either 55 appearances or 25 games finished. Uehara has appeared in eight games and finished four, putting him on pace for 54 and 27, respectively.
  • Arthur Rhodes, Rangers: $4MM option vests with 62 appearances and if he's not on the disabled list at the end of the season. He's appeared in eight games so far, putting him on pace for 50. Injuries to the some of his bullpen mates could increase Rhodes' workload though.
  • Joakim Soria, Royals: $6MM option vests with 55 appearances. He's already appeared in 12 games and is on pace for 75.
  • Dan Wheeler, Red Sox: $3MM option vests with 65 games; increases to $3.25MM with 70 games. Wheeler has appeared in just eight games so far, so he'll have to start seeing more time for the option to kick in.

Adam Wainwright's 2012 ($9MM) and 2013 ($12MM) options will not vest because he will finish the season on the disabled list. Aramis Ramirez's option depends on MVP Award finishes and whether or not he's traded, not plate appearances or another counting milestone.

Mark Buehrle is scheduled to become a free agent after the 2011 season and although he doesn't have a traditional option in his contract, he gets an extra year at $15MM tacked onto his current deal if he's traded at some point this season. 

Thanks to Cot's Baseball Contracts for the info.

Rosenthal On Reyes, Rodriguez, Nationals, Orioles

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Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports brings us some interesting tidbits in this week's installment of Full Count..

  • The Mets will not sign Jose Reyes to a monster contract similar to the one given to Carl Crawford (seven-years, $142MM).  However, despite the Mets' financial troubles, keeping Reyes is not out of the question if he's willing to accept a shorter deal in the vicinity of three-years, $45-50MM.  Reyes, if healthy, will get more than that on the open market but it's still not a sure thing that the club will deal him.  They'll have to consider their position in the standings, how it would impact attendance, and what the return in a trade would be versus the high draft picks they would get if Reyes left via free agency.
  • The Mets won't have to worry about Francisco Rodriguez finishing 55 games if they deal him to a club that would use him as a set-up man as opposed to a closer.  The Rangers, for example, have Neftali Feliz (if healthy) to finish games.  K-Rod can block deals to as many as ten clubs as part of his deal but the Mets, to facilitate this deal, would gladly pick up the $3.5MM buyout to get rid of him.
  • Nationals manager Jim Riggleman is one of a handful of managers whose future is uncertain beyond this season.  The club has yet to pick up his option for '12 even though most in the game say that the Nats are on the right track.  Riggleman's agent told Rosenthal that he is hopeful that the club will either exercise the option or sign him to a multi-year deal by Father's Day.
  • The Orioles collected a number of veterans on one-year deals thinking that, at the very least, they'd have trade chips at the deadline.  General Manager Andy MacPhail & Co. may need to think again as Derrek Lee and Vladimir Guerrero have done very little at the plate and J.J. Hardy has missed most of the year with an oblique injury.  All of this could change, but Rosenthal wonders if manager Buck Showalter and owner Peter Angelos would even approve of a sell-off.

Dead Money: Paying Players To Play Elsewhere

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Eating money in trades or by releasing players is far from an ideal business practice, but sometimes it's a necessary evil. The Mets believe they are better off paying Oliver Perez and Luis Castillo a combined $18MM not to be on their team this year, and released the two just last month. David Wharton of The Los Angeles Times wrote about the concept of "dead money" today, speaking to Dodgers GM Ned Colletti, sports economist J.C. Bradbury, and Scott Boras.

With some help from Cot's Baseball Contracts, let's look at the teams that are paying players to be anywhere but on their roster this season…

This doesn't include money the Braves owe Kenshin Kawakami ($7.4MM) or the Yankees owe Kei Igawa ($4MM). Both Japanese imports remain in the organization, but they've since been banished to the minor leagues. It also doesn't include all the money the Mets famously owe Bobby Bonilla for the next two decades.

Yuniesky Betancourt is the only player collecting paychecks from three different big league teams at the moment, but Carlos Silva could join him if he's called up by the Yankees. Gary Matthews Jr. could also be in that mix if he catches on somewhere this summer.

Quick Hits: Mets, Draft Prospects, Royals, Manny

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Carlos Santana's first career grand slam couldn't have come at a better time for the Indians.  The young catcher hit a walkoff slam to lead Cleveland to a 9-5 win over Detroit on Friday night.  Here's some news from around the majors…

  • The Mets are willing to give "veto power over a limited number of financial decisions" to a new minority owner, reports Josh Kosman and Lenn Robbins of the New York Post, including such decisions as large player contracts and overall payroll size.  The Wilpons and Saul Katz "will treat their new partner as a real partner," one source tells Kosman and Robbins.
  • ESPN's Keith Law reveals his latest ranking of the top 50 draft prospects.  Law calls this draft a "huge pitching bonanza," but lacking in position players.
  • Also from Law, via Twitter, the Cubs are hoping center fielder Bubba Starling is still available when they make their first-round (9th overall) choice.
  • Many of the Royals' top prospects are off to a great start in the minors, but GM Dayton Moore doesn't plan to bring any of these young stars up to the Major League level anytime soon, reports MLB.com's Dick Kaegel.
  • Manny Ramirez hints to ESPNDeportes' Jorge Arangure about a return to baseball — in the Dominican winter league, that is.
  • In a live chat with fans, ESPN's Jayson Stark discusses such topics as Kevin Millwood's future with the Yankees, Bryce Harper's progress and the Blue Jays' chances of signing Albert Pujols or Prince Fielder as a free agent this winter.
  • David Wharton of the Los Angeles Times looks at some of the more notable "dead money" teams are still paying to players long since departed from their rosters or the game itself.
  • Tracy Ringolsby of FOXSports.com writes about Mike Quade's unlikely path to becoming the Cubs' manager.

Quick Hits: Pujols, Mets, Dodgers

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On this date 12 years ago, Tigers scout Ramon Pena signed 17-year-old Omar Infante out of Venezuela. Now, it's a make or break year for the Marlins' infielder, who is 29. Here are today's links…

  • Some Cardinals fans are creating signs to encourage Albert Pujols to re-sign in St. Louis and donating the proceeds to the first baseman's foundation, Yahoo's Jeff Passan reports. Pujols is set to hit free agency after the season and Ron Heinz and his friends want to make sure he stays put.
  • The Mets will likely have a payroll of about $120MM next year, according to Matt Cerrone of MetsBlog. Cerrone suggests the Mets haven't yet decided how seriously they'll consider trade offers for Jose Reyes this summer and points out that it's unclear if GM Sandy Alderson intends to offer the shortstop a long-term deal.
  • ESPN.com’s Jerry Crasnick identifies nine key partnerships that have emerged so far this season, including Andre Ethier and Matt Kemp and Jose Bautista and Blue Jays hitting coach Dwayne Murphy.

Draft Notes: Purke, Bradley, Mets

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All of a sudden, the 2011 draft is just six weeks away. Here's the latest on some of the available prospects and one team's approach to the big event:

  • Led by projected 2011 first rounders Matt Barnes and George Springer, Connecticut baseball is on the rise, Jim Callis writes in the latest edition of Ask BA. Click here for MLBTR’s Q&A with Springer.
  • TCU left-hander Matt Purke, who has been shut down with shoulder soreness, may have to reestablish his value like Anthony Ranaudo did last summer, according to Callis. Click here for MLBTR's Q&A with Purke.
  • As Callis explains, South Carolina outfielder Jackie Bradley Jr. may fall to the second half of the first round or the supplementary round. If Bradley falls, it will be because of his spring sruggles and tools, not simply because of his recent wrist injury.
  • The Mets are allowing themselves to be greedy with the 13th overall selection this year. Paul DePodesta, the Mets' VP of player development and amateur scouting, told Adam Rubin of ESPNNewYork.com that the Mets don't intend to settle with their top pick. "We want tools, skills, guys who can run and hit for power and defend. We want to be greedy. We want it all. The reality is those guys come off the board awfully quickly."
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