Baseball Blogs Weigh In: Johan Santana’s Contract
The biggest move of this year’s Hot Stove League was clearly the trade of Johan Santana. The subsequent contract given to Santana by the Mets set a new benchmark for pitchers and could have a lasting trickle-down effect on other pitchers in baseball. The players most likely to cash in on the Santana deal are other young lefties with strong track records. The first fallout appears to be in Cleveland, with the recent news that C.C. Sabathia has broken off contract talks. With pitchers and catchers conducting their first workouts in many camps today, let’s take a look at how Santana’s deal is affecting other pitchers in the blogosphere.
- Let’s Go Tribe feels that Sabathia could command $150MM on the open market and breaking off contract talks means Sabathia will not be a member of the Indians in 2009.
- Indians Confidential agrees that Sabathia is "as good as gone."
- Tribe Report does not think the Indians should give Sabathia a seven-year deal as it is a stretch to think he will be worth $20MM at age 35.
- MLB Fleece Factor calls it "The Santana Effect" and believes that Santana’s new deal means that A.J. Burnett will likely opt out of his contract in Toronto following the 2008 season. In addition, they believe that there is a possibility that the Jays will look to trade Roy Halladay prior to his 2010 free agency.
- Rays Index believes there is a good chance the Rays will look to trade Scott Kazmir following the 2008 season. They feel that Santana’s deal will make it nearly impossible for the Rays to sign Kazmir to an extension prior to his 2010 free agency. In addition, the recent bounty obtained by the Orioles for Erik Bedard and the pipeline of top pitching prospects in the Rays’ system, suggest that it is in the best interest of the franchise to move their young ace.
C.C. Sabathia Extension Rumors
2-5-08 at 9:50am: Indians GM Mark Shapiro has no plans to trade Sabathia. Not a big surprise, since they’re a contending team.
2-4-08: Paul Hoynes of the Cleveland Plain Dealer has some details about the Indians’ December contract extension offer to ace C.C. Sabathia. The four-year extension would run from 2009 through 2012 and is believed to be between $68-72MM. There would also probably be some kind of bonus added to Sabathia’s $11.25MM ’08 salary to bring him more in line with his peers.
If Sabathia compares himself to Jake Peavy and Carlos Zambrano, then the Indians’ offer has a chance. But the new Johan bar is set at about $23MM per year. Hoynes says the Tribe is probably going to have to revise its offer because of the Mets’ new ace. Peter Gammons says Santana is "the reason the Indians have no chance of re-signing Sabathia unless someone finds oil in Lake Erie."
You can bet Sabathia and his free agent adventure will receive a ton of coverage from this site come December.
Baseball Blogs Weigh In: Johan Santana
Unless Omar Minaya fumbles the most important contract negotiation of his career (we can’t see that happening), the biggest story of the 2007-08 off-season now has an ending and the enduring national nightmare is over. Johan Santana is a Met…now we can get back to talking about more important issues like Kyle Lohse and Livan Hernandez. But before we do let’s take a look at reactions to the Santana trade from the blogosphere.
- Aaron Gleeman is sentimental as his blog has grown up along side Santana’s career. Now he is disappointed in the package the Twins received but hopeful it could still work out in the long run.
- Twinkie Town believes trading Santana is status-quo for the Twins as the franchise seems to be in a perpetual state of rebuilding. This seems like overreaction considering the Twins have been in the playoffs four of the past six years.
- Twins Territory is not disappointed in the trade outcome. They believe Bill Smith had his hands tied and four top prospects is a nice haul.
- Amazin’ Avenue was still smiling hours after the news broke and feels Twins fans must be disappointed in the package they received.
- Metsgeek doesn’t care what the price was for Santana. He is worth it and they are giddy.
- The ‘Ropolitans are begging the Mets to pay Santana whatever it takes to get him signed. We have to agree. The Mets can’t mess this one up.
- Fire Brand of the American League (Red Sox) speculates that the Red Sox may have backed off of Santana when they learned the Yankees were no longer interested.
- My Baseball Bias believes the Yankees won the Santana Sweepstakes by not mortgaging the future for one $150 million player. Normally we would agree, but Santana is not 35 and winning is about pitching and Santana is the best pitcher alive.
- Was Watching shows that the Mets (and the Red Sox) have done a better job of acquiring pitchers than the Yankees, and Santana is the latest example.
Santana Extension Talk
UPDATE, 1-31-08 at 5:10pm: Jon Heyman says the Mets are offering a six-year, $129MM extension starting with the ’09 season. Including his ’07 salary that would amount to seven years and $142.25MM. Santana’s people want to get the total up around $170MM. Less than 5% of MLBTR readers believe this won’t get done.
UPDATE, 1-31-08 at 11:31am: ESPN’s Jayson Stark says contract talks will spill over onto Friday, the deadline day. Chances of failing to reach an agreement are "remote." For now it appears that the Mets want the sixth year as a vesting option and Santana’s people want it guaranteed.
Stark also adds that Kyle Lohse may not be completely out of the picture for the Mets, even if they do sign Santana.
FROM 1-31-08 at 8:54am:
There’s still the little matter of the Mets signing Johan Santana to perhaps the largest deal ever for a pitcher. Let’s explore.
- LEN3 said yesterday to expect an extension (starting with 2009) in the range of six years, $130MM. Remember, Santana is signed for 2008 at $13.25MM.
- Charley Walters expects a six-year deal worth more than $150MM (which would include a $7MM signing bonus and performance incentives).
- Sabernomics says Santana might be worth around $138MM over the 2009-14 seasons.
- What do you think? Take MLBTR’s Johan Santana extension poll. Click here to see the results of this poll.
Santana Aftermath
Now that the players have been agreed upon for the Johan Santana trade, some depictions of the 11th-hour negotiations have leaked out.
- LEN3 says Santana is expected to get a six-year deal worth around $130MM ($21.66MM annually). He also notes that Santana had given the Twins an end-of-day Tuesday deadline or else he would’ve used his no-trade clause.
- Bob Klapisch of the Bergen Record chronicles Bill Smith’s last-ditch attempts to get the Yankees and Red Sox involved. He apparently asked the Yankees for Ian Kennedy, Melky Cabrera, and a top prospect and was denied. The Red Sox wouldn’t part with Jon Lester or Jacoby Ellsbury. To me this makes the Yankees and Red Sox look really fickle. They were willing to offer up these huge packages a few months ago but now both have done a 180? I know the free agent market has shrunk but it’s still crazy that their stances changed so dramatically.
- Newsday says the Mets added Deolis Guerra as the final offer yesterday.
- Joe Posnanski has heard many varying opinions on the deal.
Thoughts On The Johan Santana Trade
Seems that this deal is official enough to evaluate. We know for a fact that the Twins will receive Carlos Gomez, Philip Humber, Kevin Mulvey, and Deolis Guerra. The general consensus seems to be that Twins GM Bill Smith passed on other offers that were better than this.
If Smith had taken the Yankees’ best offer, he’d have an MLB-ready pitcher who was very recently regarded as the game’s best pitching prospect (Phil Hughes). He’d also have a solid regular center fielder in Melky Cabrera. And the Twins would’ve gotten a couple of upside players on top of that.
Boston’s top offer was better as well. The Twins could’ve filled center field, shortstop, and closer needs immediately with Jacoby Ellsbury, Jed Lowrie, and Justin Masterson.
But that’s just my take. The best folks to evaluate the Twins’ return will be Baseball America, Keith Law, and Baseball Prospectus’ Kevin Goldstein. The Twins could very well come out smelling like a rose; they just chose riskier, less proven players. As for the Mets, Omar Minaya deserves all the accolades for acquiring the best pitcher in baseball without surrendering his top prospect or anyone from the big league club.
Johan Santana Traded To Mets
UPDATE, 1-29-08 at 4:22: Ken Rosenthal says the 72-hour window to sign Santana is now open.
UPDATE, 1-29-08 at 3:15pm: Bob Nightengale of USA Today says an agreement to trade Santana to the Mets has been reached. They’ll send Carlos Gomez, Philip Humber, Deolis Guerra, and Kevin Mulvey to the Twins. The Mets still have to work out a six or seven year extension for Santana, according to Nightengale. If this baby reaches its true conclusion we’ll sit down and analyze.
UPDATE, 1-29-08 at 2:55pm: More from Olney. His sources say the Mets have the best offer, the Red Sox also made offers, and the Yanks are out. Santana apparently asked the Twins to make a decision, wrap this thing up. Wrap it up! Olney is not sure whether F-Mart is part of the Mets’ offer.
UPDATE, 1-29-08 at 2:06pm: SI.com’s Jon Heyman weighs in. He sees the Mets as the frontrunner, the Red Sox on the fringes, and the Yankees as nearly out of the running. The Mets are offering Gomez/Humber/Mulvey/Guerra but not Fernando Martinez. If they get Santana, the Mets will commit to only five years but with a high average annual value of $22-25MM.
UPDATE, 1-29-08 at 1:11pm: WFAN’s Mike Francesa believes the Twins upped their offer to five years, $100MM for Santana, but he rejected it.
UPDATE, 1-29-08 at 9:42am: ESPN’s Buster Olney says the Twins asked for each team’s "last and best offers" on Monday. They could decide Santana’s fate as early as today. Olney adds that the Yankees "appear to be not presently engaged whatsoever in the Santana talks." Olney used to be a Yankees beat writer, so he’s bound to have a good line on this.
As for the Red Sox – Olney is hearing conflicting things about Jon Lester‘s availability. It’s possible that Lester could only be had in a more limited package – he, Coco Crisp, and not much else.
FROM 1-29-08 at 8:02am:
Over at MetsBlog today, Matthew Cerrone does a nice job summing up the Johan Santana situation.
The New York Daily News indicates that the Mets are the one team pushing for Santana, but the Twins might use the Erik Bedard haul as a measuring stick. Joel Sherman sees it as a Mets-Red Sox battle. He notes that Carlos Gomez will skip the Caribbean Series not because of an impending trade but just to limit his games.
We could finally get some kind of resolution with Santana this week. Just to keep things interesting, check out Mark Healey’s note about the Dodgers "creeping into the picture."
Carlos Gomez Denied Permission For Caribbean Series?
This Impacto Deportivo article is making the rounds tonight. Here it is in Google Translate. The article says that the Mets probably will not give to permission Carlos Gomez to play in the Caribbean Series. Gomez’s family does not seem to expect it, at least. I am not sure if this has trade implications or even counts as abnormal.
If any native Spanish speakers are able to glean additional details from the article, please let us know in the comments!
Johan Santana Rumors
UPDATE, 1-28-08 at 9:42am: LEN3 jumps on his blog to give a few more tidbits. He doesn’t see the Twins adding a player or any kind of three-team scenario unfolding, based on talks with Twins officials.
FROM 1-28-08 at 9:09am:
I imagine there will be a daily thread for Johan Santana rumors. Here’s the latest from LEN3.
- The Twins "may soon tell teams…to step up with their best offers." The Yankees, Red Sox, and Mets are all still in the mix.
- The officials Neal spoke to disputed Buster Olney’s suggestion that Jon Lester was off the table.
- The Twins still want a big ol’ package from the Mets that includes both Carlos Gomez and Fernando Martinez.
- Meanwhile, Sid Hartman at the same newspaper quotes the Twins’ assistant GM as saying their four-year, $80MM offer remains on the table. Santana doesn’t seem likely to relent that far, and a trade may be a phone call away.
Livan Hernandez Close To Deal With Mets?
UPDATE, 1-26-08 at 9:46am: According to ESPN’s Jerry Crasnick on Thursday: If the Mets fail to pull off a Santana trade, indications are that Kyle Lohse — not Livan Hernandez — is their top free agent fallback.
FROM 1-25-08 at 8:27am:
Tracy Ringolsby of the Rocky Mountain News writes:
Right-hander Livan Hernandez, who is a workhorse, is close to a deal with the Mets, where he will be reunited with brother Orlando Hernandez.
This would seem to have Johan Santana implications, if it is finalized. Livan and Kyle Lohse were kind of the Plan B if they couldn’t acquire an ace via trade. But, as some commenters mentioned, signing Hernandez would not preclude a Johan trade.