Could Pedro Retire?
All the New York papers this morning had Pedro Martinez‘s quote to the AP:
"To go back, I have to recover. I have to be healthy. But if God doesn’t want that, then I would have to think about giving it all up."
Pedro also says the pain in his shoulder is the worst of his career. Whether he’s just talking out of frustration right now with the long recovery road ahead of him, it’s hard to say.
But what we know for sure is that the Mets won’t be entering 2007 relying on Pedro for much. While the Mets have put in a call to Mark Mulder‘s people, I doubt Omar Minaya would see Mulder as compensation for Martinez.
The Mets hope to retain Tom Glavine on a two-year deal and would still figure to make a significant bid for Daisuke Matsuzaka. In recent days Mike Mussina‘s name has come up as well. Right now the depth chart looks something like this without Pedro:
Tom Glavine
John Maine
Oliver Perez
Brian Bannister
Mike Pelfrey
Victor Zambrano
Dave Williams
Philip Humber
Alay Soler
That team can win, but it seems a lock that the Mets will bring in another guy at at least Glavine’s level. Maine’s not your #2 starter. The Mets have to end up with Matsuzaka, Mussina, Barry Zito, Jason Schmidt, or Vicente Padilla. I think the second tier begins at Pettitte/Meche/Lilly. Honestly I’d put trade target Dontrelle Willis in that second tier.
Tribune: Cubs After Heilman
According to Paul Sullivan of the Chicago Tribune, the Cubs have interest in acquiring Aaron Heilman to be their fifth starter in 2007. Heilman will be 28 next season.
Sullivan notes that Jim Hendry hopes to bring in one or two frontline starters not including Heilman. He doesn’t mention what the Cubs have that the Mets would want…Eric Patterson?
Sheffield And The Mets
Word from Gotham Baseball’s Mark Healey is that the Mets might be a good fit for Gary Sheffield. Apparently the team’s COO Jeff Wilpon is quite fond of Sheff. There are several other reasons why this could work; check out Healey’s post.
On a related note, Newsday reports that Brian Cashman has a Sheffield deal in place but has yet to pull the trigger. A trade is described as "inevitable," with the Cubs, Phillies, Rangers, Indians, Padres, Giants, Braves, and Astros as possible suitors. The Cubs would have to find a new spot for Jacque Jones; perhaps he would be a component of the deal as the Yanks expressed interest in him last summer.
Healey: Red Sox Like Heilman, Milledge
Mark Healey of Gotham Baseball has a new but familiar trade rumor for us: it appears that the Red Sox would like to acquire Aaron Heilman to be their closer next year. In addition, Theo Epstein and Co. may have their eye on Lastings Milledge. It could be the makings of a Manny Ramirez trade, if the Mets want to pay Ramirez’s $39MM salary over the next two seasons.
Healey was not able to confirm this info from multiple sources, but has faith in his Boston source here.
Manny’s contract may be slightly less daunting than it looks. That’s because $8MM of the $31MM is deferred and will be paid out in $1.94MM doses over 2011-2026. I believe that is the first time MLBTradeRumors has referenced the year 2026.
Gotham Baseball: Mets and Yankees Rumors
Check out the latest from Mark Healey of Gotham Baseball. A summary is below.
Healey’s Cubs source indicates Mark Prior and Alex Rodriguez could be the main pieces of a trade. That’d be a tough sell for Brian Cashman so I’m sure the Cubs would have to spice up such an offer. Healey’s source mentions Mark DeRosa as a possible A-Rod replacement in New York.
A couple of names associated with the Mets include Ray Durham and Mark Mulder. Durham is a new one for me, though the Mulder info jives with what I heard last week. I also have strong indications from another source that a return to Oakland is "very likely" for Mulder, however. It’ll come down to the dollars: if Mulder takes injury/incentive type money, he goes to Oakland. Otherwise, the Mets should be the top suitor.
Healey and I are also in agreement on the Mets’ minimal interest in Julio Lugo and their intent to hang onto Lastings Milledge.
Finally, Healey’s sources call for a Tom Glavine/Greg Maddux reunion in Atlanta. I had heard the same about Glavine, though this weekend’s New York Post mentioned that Glavine doesn’t want to give the Braves a huge discount and Atlanta’s payroll is pretty tight as long as it includes Andruw Jones.
The Hot Stove hasn’t officially begun, but it’s going to be another exciting winter.
UPDATE: Today’s AJC indicates that the Braves would hesitate to pay Glavine even $10MM.
Mets To Deal Aaron Heilman?
With Aaron Heilman being named a goat in some New York papers, the idea has arisen that the Mets should look to trade him. Seems like shaky logic – if Heilman hadn’t allowed Yadier Molina to go deep, would that change everyone’s opinion?
Whether or not it’d be a "sell low" move by Omar Minaya, Heilman’s going to have some major value on the trade market. He’s got a 3.37 ERA over the last two seasons (195 innings, mostly in relief). Next year will be Heilman’s age 28 season.
The tantalizing thing about the 6-5 righty is that he seems capable of starting in the bigs. Heilman hasn’t been a full-time starter since ’04, and he struggled in the role. But it’s the plus changeup that seems to leave the possibility open. Heilman will throw it behind in the count, and if he can work in his slider he might be able to go six solid innings.
Many teams would have interest in Heilman. While the Mets have holes at LF and 2B, the consensus seems that they’d look to acquire the scarcest commodity, a starter. We hear a lot about Heilman as part of a Dontrelle Willis package. How about two other guys I keep talking about – Jason Jennings and Jake Westbrook? Both reach free agency after 2007. Doesn’t seem that Heilman alone would be enough, but it would be a good start. If the Mets are without Pedro and Glavine to start 2007, they’re going to need two good replacements.
Latest Mets Buzz
I spoke to my Mets source recently, so here’s the latest buzz around the team.
As has been reported in several places, Tom Glavine plans on returning to the Braves. I’m told a "handshake agreement" is in place. If the playoff excitement can’t change his mind, the Mets will take a look at Barry Zito and Mark Mulder. Orlando Hernandez may be re-signed and of course Steve Trachsel is a goner. Beyond that, the Mets have many in-house starting pitching options.
The Mets still like outfielder Lastings Milledge even with the problems he’s had in the clubhouse. The only way he’d be dealt is if Dontrelle Willis comes in return. Should Willis become available, the Mets will be all over it. If Milledge is traded to Florida, to team is high on David Dellucci for left field. Alfonso Soriano is not on the radar.
My source also tells me that there is a lot of consideration for Aaron Heilman to return to starting for 2007. They hope to re-sign Guillermo Mota but expect Darren Oliver to command too much money.
The Mets will probably pursue a trade for second base, as Valentin is not expected back. In-house options Ruben Gotay and Anderson Hernandez do not impress. Interest in Julio Lugo is minimal.
The team will take the payroll to the $105MM range. If Glavine leaves that could mean $20MM to play with.
Posting Possibility: Kei Igawa
Kei Igawa is a 27 year-old southpaw with the Hanshin Tigers in Japan. He pitched 200 innings this year with a 3.11 ERA and 8.3 K/9, winning 13 games.
Igawa made a request for posting after 2005, but was denied. While Igawa hopes to be posted this winter, the Tigers’ owner seems opposed to the idea. There’s also the somewhat odd and perhaps related occurence of Igawa breaking down in tears on the mound after his final home start. If he’s not posted, Igawa will become a free agent after the 2009 season.
Reader Iwanaga Tak was kind enough to give me some info and translate this article for me. Apparently, there is a chance Igawa could be posted if Hanshin signs free agent hurler Hiroki Kuroda to replace him as their ace. American scouts haven’t shown much interest in the 31 year-old Kuroda, who is a free agent.
Speculation has Igawa’s posting fee expected to be around $10MM, a little less than Ichiro’s. If he is posted, he’d be a #3-4 type starter with a salary in the range of $3MM annually. Interested parties include the Mariners, Dodgers, Mets, Braves, and Tigers. Hanshin should make a decision about posting Igawa after the Japan Series, which starts next week.
2007 New York Mets
Let’s see what’s in store for the Mets next year. Their playoff appearance this year should ensure that ownership spends some more money to plug any holes.
By the way, you can read any of my 2007 Team Outlooks here.
Omar Minaya’s contractual obligations:
C – Paul LoDuca – $6.5MM
C – Ramon Castro – $0.8MM
1B – Carlos Delgado – $14.5MM
2B –
SS – Jose Reyes – $2.5MM
3B – David Wright – $1MM
IF – Julio Franco – $1.1MM
IF – Ruben Gotay – $0.3405MM, Anderson Hernandez – $0.327MM
LF – Lastings Milledge – $0.415MM
CF – Carlos Beltran – $12MM
RF – Shawn Green – $3.7MM
OF – Endy Chavez – $0.5MM
SP – Pedro Martinez – $14MM
SP – Tom Glavine – $7.5MM player option; $14MM club option. Both have $3MM buyout
SP – Oliver Perez – $1.9MM
SP – Brian Bannister – $0.327MM
SP – Philip Humber – $0.84MM
SP – Mike Pelfrey – $1.3125MM
SP – John Maine – $0.33MM
SP – Victor Zambrano – $3MM
SP – Dave Williams – $1.4MM
RP – Alay Soler – $0.93MM
RP – Billy Wagner – $10.5MM
RP – Duaner Sanchez – $0.3995MM
RP – Aaron Heilman – $0.359MM
RP – Heath Bell – $0.33MM
RP – Henry Owens – $0.33MM
RP – Pedro Feliciano – $0.33MM
RP – Royce Ring – $0.33MM
RP – Matt Lindstrom – $0.33MM
The Mets come in at about $81MM with this group, excluding Glavine. If Glavine were to stay maybe the sides would meet in the middle at $11MM. While it’s true that not every player listed above will receive a Major League salary, some guys will get raises. Let’s say they’re at $95MM with Glavine, and $84MM without. The Mets entered the season with a $101MM payroll.
One hole the Mets should fill is second base. There are your usual mid-range free agents, and then there’s Alfonso Soriano. Soriano could be used in left field if the Mets trade Milledge or decide he’s not ready. Recent word is that Sori will be priced out of the Mets’ range. I think that’s silly given the playoff revenue and payroll room. Sure, the Mets don’t need him. But why not build a National League juggernaut? His offense could become vital if, say, a 35 year-old Delgado gets hurt or declines. There’s also Julio Lugo, who would be happy to play second as a Met.
As I said, the Mets can go with Milledge in left. Or right, if you think flip-flopping him with Green improves the defense. With a win now team like the Mets, Milledge probably isn’t who you want starting in the outfield. The Yankees would not enter 2007 with Melky Cabrera in left, especially if Cabrera had just 162 big league ABs. Minaya can just leave him in Triple A, wait until he hits so well that there’s no choice but to play him. In the meantime there are fine options like Moises Alou and David Dellucci on the market. Either player would make sense on a two-year deal.
The position players are otherwise set in stone, and the outlook is good.
The pitching situation is also very promising. The Mets are literally ten-deep in the rotation. And it’s not all mid-range guys, as Perez, Humber, and Pelfrey have a lot of upside. It’ll be hard to do if he becomes a playoff hero, but the Mets should probably let Glavine go to the Braves. Maybe that’s what Glavine will prefer anyway. The Mets just have tons of far cheaper, comparable starting options. Maybe the recent "we don’t need Zito" thing is a smokescreen, but the Mets really don’t need Zito.
The bullpen looks equally deep. It’s anchored by Wagner and Sanchez. Beyond that plenty of cheap, young players are showing promise. I wouldn’t tinker with the pen.
If I’m Omar, I would sign Soriano to play second. Yes, it’s a deal that won’t end well. It’s the price you pay to get the available star without giving up young talent. I’d also pick up Alou for left field and find a respectful way to have Glavine move on. Then I’d let the chips fall for April and May and see if I need anything. If Pedro isn’t holding up, or several of the younger starters falter, I’d try to trade for Jason Jennings or Jake Westbrook.
Daisuke Matsuzaka Video
A little more on Japanese hurler Daisuke Matsuzaka. Check out this video of him throwing his various pitches. It’s the best look I’ve had at his breaking ball. It might be a screwball or something weird, but let’s remember that Jeff Passan has established that it’s not a gyroball.
When we last checked in, there was a 50/50 chance of Matsuzaka being posted by the Lions. Here’s a rundown on the suitors:
This Boston Herald article informed us that the Red Sox, Yankees, and Mets are currently scouting Matsuzaka in Japan. As of September 11th, his numbers looked like this. Newsday tells us the Mets will be aggressive in their pursuit. The Rangers are scouting Matsuzaka as well. The Orioles expressed interest in August.
The Dodgers and Mariners are often linked to Matsuzaka, but I haven’t seen anything lately on those clubs.