Soriano for Milledge and Trachsel Proposed
We have some new details from my Mets source concerning a possible trade of Alfonso Soriano to the Mets. The latest report is that the Mets would send Lastings Milledge and Steve Trachsel to the Rangers for Soriano. The deal would be contingent on Soriano signing a long-term extension to play second base (not outfield).
The 35 year-old Trachsel would be a decent, affordable addition to the back-end of the Texas rotation. Jon Daniels may express concerns about Trachsel’s performance away from Shea Stadium in his last full season (2004). That year, Trachsel posted a 5.65 ERA with 16 HR allowed on the road. On the other hand, Trachsel was actually better on the road than at Shea in 2003. Trachsel’s 2006 option will pay him anywhere from $2.5MM-7MM based on innings pitched. He could be worth 4-5 wins in 2006.
Lastings Milledge was ranked the 4th best outfield prospect in baseball by Baseball Prospectus before the 2005 season. He did nothing to change that perception in ’05, batting .318 at Single and Double A stops. He projects to be worth 3 wins at the Major League level in 2006.
The OBP deficient Alfonso Soriano would be a curious addition to the Mets’ lineup. He was especially poor away from Ameriquest in 2005, hitting .224/.265/.374 (AVG/OBP/SLG). The power splits are tough to decipher, as Ameriquest is known to boost HRs for right-handed hitters by only about 6%. Soriano hit .315/.355/.656 in Texas in ’05.
Defensively, Soriano placed 17th among regular second basemen in range factor in 2005. According to Baseball Prospectus’s WARP statistic, which combines offense and defense, Soriano was the 19th best second baseman in baseball in 2005. He projects to be worth 6 wins in 2006 and should get a raise to about $10MM through arbitration.
Sources:
Baseball Prospectus
Bill James Handbook 2006
Cot’s Baseball Contracts
Mets Considering Javier Vazquez
All sorts of trade rumors coming from my source close to the Mets’ front office. While it is well-known that the Mets are interested in Arizona righthander Javier Vazquez, my source names a pitching prospect contrary to published reports.
According to my source, the Mets are considering dealing Kris Benson and 19 year-old blue chip pitcher Gaby Hernandez for Vazquez. Up to this point, published reports have named the polished 24 year-old Brian Bannister as the prospect in the deal.
While Hernandez has not pitched above A ball, he has a much higher ceiling than Bannister. Bannister did impress in 45 Triple A innings in 2005, however.
Vazquez’s problem lately has been the long ball. His HR/9 rate has hovered above 1.4 while his strikeout and walk rates were superb last season. Unfortunately for the Mets, Vazquez carried his home run woes with him on the road in ’05. It will troublesome if he continues to do so, but there’ s no doubt that Shea Stadium suppresses home runs (by 16%) and Chase Field inflates them (by 13%).
Even if Vazquez continues to surrender home runs, he’s a marked improvement over Kris Benson. Benson managed a 4.13 ERA in 2005 to Vazquez’s 4.45, but consider:
He’s two years older than Vazquez.
He was much worse away from Shea Stadium.
He hasn’t pitched 200 innings in a season since 2000.
His 2005 strikeout rate was a career low.
Considering that the Mets appear to be entering extreme "win now" mode, the Vazquez trade is a good move even if Gaby Hernandez pans out in 2007.
Billy Wagner To Accept Four Year Offer Tuesday
A source in the Mets’ front office is telling MLBTradeRumors.com that the club will make a four year, $40MM offer to Billy Wagner immediately following his tour of the city. The deal might be announced by Wednesday morning. Omar Minaya is eager to get a deal done early this week so that he can focus on numerous other player acquisitions.
Minaya will be employing the same bait he used to reel in Pedro Martinez: the guaranteed fourth year. The Phillies (smartly) refuse to pay Wagner $10MM for a season during which he’ll turn 38.
Other sources close to the proceedings indicate that Wagner already had made his decision to join the Mets prior to his New York tour.
Luis Castillo To The Mets
Our suspicions from yesterday have been confirmed: Luis Castillo is definitely on the trading block. Many sources mention the Mets’ interest in the second baseman.
The names we’re hearing coming back from the Mets are shortstop Anderson Hernandez and/or second baseman Jeff Keppinger (via the Palm Beach Post). Alex Gonzalez won’t be returning to play shortstop in Florida, and the Marlins are less than confident in their top prospect at the position, Robert Andino. If the Mets would give up Hernandez, the Marlins would probably pull the trigger.
While Yusmeiro Petit is probably out of the question, the Mets could part with young righthander Gaby Hernandez. Hernandez looked fantastic in A ball in 2005 while still a teenager.
Luis Castillo is a top ten second baseman and perfect top-of-the-order hitter. His defense is superb and he’s due $5MM in 2006. The Mets aren’t the only team interested in his services – the Red Sox, Cardinals, and Twins are all in the running.
Thanks to Ben K.
Mets, Indians, Cards Contact Dotel
In recent years, Octavio Dotel has whiffed batters at a ridiculous rate, sometimes approaching 13 per nine innings. While tough to hit in general, Dotel has been prone to the home run and too generous with bases on balls.
The colorful Dotel went down this summer with a strained right elbow, and by June Dr. James Andrews was wrapping a tendon from his leg around that same elbow. Interestingly, the tendon was long enough to be wound three times around the elbow, giving Dotel superhuman strength. Well, I’m not sure about the strength but it was wrapped three times.
Dotel elected for the surgery against Oakland’s wishes, and a door was opened for Huston Street to become Rookie of the Year in 2005. Dotel was one of the first free agents to file, and has declared in the past that he’d be happy to pitch in a setup role if need be. He even volunteered to play for free.
Dotel was ranked 31st on the RotoAuthority Top 50 Free Agents list, and Boston was picked as his likely destination. Now comes word of three other teams interested in Dotel’s services, courtesy of an unusual source. My source’s barber (in New York) is apparently friends with Dotel, as they knew each other back in the Dominican Republic. The barber informed my source that Dotel has been contacted by the Cardinals, Mets, and Indians. The best part, straight from my source:
"He also told me that Octavio is working on a record, not a record for saves or strikeouts or anything, a merengue record. He is supposedly a great singer. Seriously."
There you have it. It might sound a little far-fetched, but have fun with it. My honest opinion is that this report is accurate and truthful. St. Louis seems the most likely choice, as the club has shown great patience and has been rewarded with rehab projects like Chris Carpenter.
Thanks to Dan K.
Walker For Heilman Trade Legitimate
I’ve noticed various outlets claiming the rumored Todd Walker for Aaron Heilman trade was fabricated. While I’m not sure if the deal will ultimately go through, I can guarantee that the rumor is on the level.
According to Kevin Burkhardt of WFAN in New York, the Mets have been dangling Heilman in front of the Cubs in an attempt to acquire Walker. The rumor originally aired on November 12th, and I’ve contacted Burkhardt in an attempt to get more info.
Mike Cameron Deal To Be Completed Today
Several sources are telling me that Mike Cameron will be traded to the Padres today for Akinori Otsuka. As I mentioned earlier, Xavier Nady could also be included in the deal.
MetsBlog now says Buster Olney is reporting that this is a done deal. Olney has yet to provide any names coming from the Padres in his ESPN Rumor Central post.
Update: Gotham Baseball has the scoop on this one, telling us that the trade is indeed for Akinori Otsuka. According to editor-in-chief Mike McGann, financial concerns with Otsuka’s contract are the main hangup.
Thanks to Brian B.
Cameron For Nady Rumor Has Legs
A new Ken Rosenthal column was just posted over at Fox Sports. Some interesting nuggets in there, including a few that confirm rumors we reported on earlier.
The rumored Mike Cameron for Xavier Nady swap we mentioned on Sunday may have legs. Rosenthal adds that the Mets could spin Nady into a Manny Ramirez package if they don’t want to platoon him with Mike Jacobs. Nady could make sense for the Red Sox, a team with question marks at third and second base.
Cameron could also end up in Baltimore or Arizona according to Rosenthal.
The column mentions some interest coming from the Braves on Trevor Hoffman. I don’t buy this matchup, considering Hoffman’s outlandish demands. The Braves don’t seem like the types to give three years or $27MM to a closer.
Rosenthal also adds some info to the Julio Lugo to the Braves rumor. We confirmed before that the Braves would need more than Lugo to part with Andy Marte. Rosenthal suggests Johnny Estrada and another prospect as a more reasonable package going to the D-Rays.
Thanks to Brian B.
Cubs To Trade Todd Walker For Aaron Heilman
A new trade rumor has been floated from New York today. We all know Todd Walker is on the trading block; it seems the Mets are interested.
Word is that the Cubs will deal Walker to the Mets for Aaron Heilman, straight up. If the rumor holds up, this could help both teams.
Strangely, the Mets still seem to have little faith in Heilman despite his breakout 2005. Heilman just turned 27, and he misses bats. He has yet to settle into his role as a pitcher. Heilman could serve in the swing role for the Cubs if Glendon Rusch becomes a permanent rotation fixture. Having a pitcher versatile enough to start, close, and do everything in-between may be a new trend in baseball.
Walker is what he is – all hit, no glove. He’s definitely an above average hitter for a second baseman. You’ll see that Walker was the 20th best 2B in 2005 once you consider fielding. If he can stay healthy for 550 at-bats, however, he might crack the top ten in 2006 despite the poor defense.
The move would take the Mets out of their dance with Rafael Furcal and increase the chances the Cubs sign him.
Heilman wasn’t seen as an integral part of the proposed Manny Ramirez trade, so those talks would stay alive.
Thanks to Brian from Edison for the tip.
Mets To Swap Cameron For Nady
Over at RotoAuthority, I did an in-depth breakdown of the rumored Manny Ramirez trade. The conclusion? Even a trade of just Lastings Milledge and Mike Cameron for Manny Ramirez would be damaging to the Mets by 2007. If the Mets add Yusmeiro Petit or Aaron Heilman to the mix, they get killed in the deal.
But now we have a new trade rumor that puts a wrinkle in the proposed Manny deal. Word is that Mike Cameron for Xavier Nady is close to a done deal.
Nady’s versatility is helpful, but he won’t match Cameron’s value in 2006. Cameron’s not a star player in my book, but then again, you know you’ve made it when people start impersonating you to score painkillers. Cameron plays a solid center field, and can still add 6 wins to a team at age 33. Nady is 27 and is still several years away from free agency. The Mets are hoping he can approximate his production from Triple A Portland in 2004: .330/.391/.629 in 74 games. Nady did slug .615 in June of ’05, so the potential is intriguing.
More interesting than the Cameron for Nady trade itself is the related fallout. Consider:
The Red Sox would have one less option to replace Johnny Damon, and it becomes more likely that they bite the bullet and offer him a four-year deal.
The Mets back away from Carlos Delgado, Paul Konerko, and other available first basemen. They begin the year with some combination of Mike Jacobs and Xavier Nady at the position.
A new group of players would have to be assembled to entice the Red Sox to surrender Ramirez. Rest assured that if Lastings Milledge is involved, the Red Sox will still be listening.
Thanks to Ryan from Berkeley